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Poll: Who Will Win The 2024 Home Run Derby?

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The 2024 All-Star break festivities are already well underway, with the Futures Game in the books and the second of three draft days currently taking place. Tonight, the Home Run Derby will take center stage at 7pm Central time, with these participants:

The winner will get $1MM, with $500K for the runner-up and $150K for everyone else in the field. There’s also a $100K bonus for the player who hits the longest home run. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won last year but opted not to defend his title, so there will be a new champion, though Alonso has two previous titles from 2019 and 2021 and will be looking for a third.

This year’s format will be different from previous versions, with Cole Jacobson of MLB.com providing a rundown. The primary change is that there will be no head-to-head matchups in the first round, as the four players with the most home runs will advance. If two players tie, the longest home run will be a tiebreaker. Previously, the knockout-style bracket system started right away but this year’s version won’t see that until the field has been narrowed to four. Once the knockout stage begins, ties will be settled by 60 seconds of extra time. If the players are still tied, they will engage in three-swing showdowns until they are no longer tied.

In the first two rounds, players with have three minutes, which drops to two minutes in the final round. The three-minute rounds will now have a 40-pitch maximum while the two-minute round will feature a 27-pitch maximum.

The bonus time is also different. Previous versions featured 30 seconds of automatic extra time, which jumped to 60 seconds if the player hit two or more home runs 440 feet or longer. This year, the bonus time will continue until a player record three “outs,” which is a swing that doesn’t result in a home run. If a player hits a home run 425 feet or longer in the bonus period, he will get a fourth out.

Of the eight players competing this year, Henderson has the most homers this year with 28. He is followed by Ozuna at 26, Ramírez at 23, Alonso and Hernández at 19, García at 17, Witt at 16 and Bohm at 11.

Who do you want to win and who do you think will win? Have you say in the polls below!

Who Do You Want To Win The 2024 Derby?
Teoscar Hernández 21.53% (1,921 votes)
Pete Alonso 18.42% (1,644 votes)
Gunnar Henderson 15.56% (1,389 votes)
Bobby Witt Jr. 11.35% (1,013 votes)
Marcell Ozuna 10.65% (950 votes)
José Ramírez 8.18% (730 votes)
Alec Bohm 7.31% (652 votes)
Adolis García 7.00% (625 votes)
Total Votes: 8,924
Who Do You Think Will Win The 2024 Derby?
Pete Alonso 25.99% (1,512 votes)
Teoscar Hernández 22.98% (1,337 votes)
Gunnar Henderson 14.01% (815 votes)
Marcell Ozuna 11.33% (659 votes)
Adolis García 8.44% (491 votes)
Bobby Witt Jr. 7.13% (415 votes)
José Ramírez 5.29% (308 votes)
Alec Bohm 4.83% (281 votes)
Total Votes: 5,818

The Rangers’ Surprising Problem

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Each week at MLBTR, it seems we're covering a development that further tanks the Astros' chances of competing for a playoff spot. We've devoted less attention to their in-state rivals, but the Rangers are in no better a situation. Texas and Houston have identical 33-40 records after the Rangers' five-game losing streak. They're only four games clear of the Angels for fourth place in the AL West.

Texas starting the season slowly isn't a huge surprise in itself (even if the extent of their struggles is). The eye-opener is in the way the team has underperformed. The Rangers opened the season without Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle. They were largely trying to stay afloat for the first couple months before welcoming that trio of starters back throughout the summer. The early-season rotation was the big question -- the main reason the Rangers might find themselves closer to the bottom of the AL West than the top more than halfway into June.

Starting pitching has not been the problem. Texas is middle-of-the-pack in that regard, solid work from a staff without three of its most talented arms. The collapse has been on the other side of the ball. The Ranger offense hasn't performed. An outfield that looked like one of the game's most talented groups has been a disaster. It's not the easiest problem for GM Chris Young to address at the deadline -- if the Rangers find themselves in position to add at all next month.

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Injury Notes: Garcia, Bradford, Pagan, Chandler

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Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien collided in pursuit of a fly ball in shallow right field in Saturday’s game, leaving Garcia with a sore forearm that kept him out of Sunday’s game.  The issue was serious enough that Garcia underwent an MRI, but manager Bruce Bochy told MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry (X link) and other reporters that the outfielder received “pretty good” results from the tests.  Since the Rangers don’t play on Monday, the team is hopeful that another day of rest will have Garcia ready for the start of their series Tuesday against the Phillies.

Garcia has a solid 117 wRC+ over 192 plate appearances this season, though his .251/.297/.491 slash line is obviously power-heavy.  While Garcia has 11 homers and is making lots of hard contact, his strikeout and walk rates are both far below the league average, and his 5.7% walk rate is in particular a sharp drop from his 10.3% number in 2023.  Despite these concerns, Garcia has still been one of the better hitters in a Texas lineup that has struggled to follow up on its huge numbers from its championship season.

More injury updates from around baseball…

  • Sticking with the Rangers, Cody Bradford told Landry and other reporters that the stress fracture in his rib isn’t improving, even if the injury is no longer causing him pain.  Bradford has been shut down from throwing for the time being, and it isn’t yet known how long this shutdown might extend his recovery timeline.  Bradford hasn’t pitched since April 10 due to a lower back strain that led to his initial placement on the 10-day injured list, but the rib fracture was discovered near the end of April, and it was expected that Bradford would likely miss the rest of May.  The left-hander had a sterling 1.40 ERA in his first 19 1/3 innings of the season, but his injuries have made him one of an incredible six starting pitchers on the Rangers’ IL.
  • Emilio Pagan had to be removed from the Reds’ 3-2 loss to the Dodgers today after the reliever felt some pain in his triceps area.  “It felt like my triceps overstretched right in the middle,” Pagan said told MLB.com and other media, though “it wasn’t sharp pain. It wasn’t a grab.”  Pagan will be examined by team doctors during the Monday off-day, but an initial round of tests created some hope that the issue isn’t serious.  Pagan’s 54.2% hard-hit ball rate is among the highest in baseball and he is having his usual trouble keeping the ball in the park, but the right-hander has limited the damage to a 4.19 ERA over 19 1/3 innings thanks to an outstanding strikeout rate.
  • Pirates pitching prospect Bubba Chandler has been placed on the seven-day IL at Double-A due to forearm tightness, as assistant GM Steve Sanders relayed in an interview on 93.7 radio (hat tip to Justin Guerriero of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).  Chandler was a third-round pick for the Bucs in the 2021 draft, and he is ranked 57th by Baseball America and 66th by MLB Pipeline in their current lists of the sport’s top prospects.  The righty had 3.10 ERA over his first 20 1/3 innings of the Double-A season but was hit hard in his last two outings, perhaps in relation to the forearm issue.

Rangers Sign Adolis Garcia To Two-Year Deal

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5:19pm: The Rangers made it official, announced they have signed Garcia to a two-year deal. Per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, Garcia will make $4.75MM this year and a base of $9.25MM next year.

11:33am: Garcia is guaranteed $14MM over the two-year term, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The contract contains a series of escalators based on MVP voting that could further increase his salary in year two of the deal. The contract can max out at $20.25MM total over two years, Heyman adds.

10:58am: The Rangers have agreed to a two-year contract with star outfielder Adolis Garcia, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The deal is still pending completion of a physical, and there are still some details to be finalized, but the general framework is in place. Garcia is represented by Octagon.

The agreement comes on the same day that Garcia and the team were slated to head to an arbitration hearing. Garcia’s camp had filed for a $6.9MM salary for the upcoming season, while the team had countered at $5MM. That hearing will now no longer be necessary, and the two-year term on the deal eliminates the chance of a hearing next offseason as well. Garcia will still be under club control for one final year after this two-year pact draws to a close, so the two sides will again have to deal with a potential arb hearing in the 2025-26 offseason.

Garcia, 31 next month, has emerged as a late-blooming star and one of the driving factors behind the Rangers’ 2023 World Series title. He’s been a key presence in the lineup and in the outfield for Texas in each of the past three seasons, hitting .246/.305/.472 (110 wRC+) with plus defense and baserunning.

Garcia’s 2023 campaign, however, was far and away his best overall season to date. Garcia posted a career-best 10.3% walk rate and career-low 27.7% strikeout rate while hitting .245/.328/.508 with 39 home runs — second-most in the American League and tied for seventh-most in all of MLB. That performance earned Garcia an All-Star nod, and his premium defense resulted in his first career Gold Glove Award. His heroics continued into the postseason, where he hit .323/.382/.726 with a staggering eight home runs in just 15 games and 68 plate appearances. Garcia was on another level during the ALCS, when he clocked five home runs and slugged just shy of .900 en route to ALCS MVP honors.

An ill-timed oblique strain suffered on a swing during Game 3 of the World Series prompted the Rangers to remove Garcia from their World Series roster, but Texas soldiered on without their star right fielder and toppled the upstart Diamondbacks in a 4-1 series victory. By all accounts, Garcia has long since healed up from that injury and is a full-go for spring training.

Heading into 2024, Garcia will again reprise his role as the team’s primary right fielder. He’ll likely be joined by center fielder Leody Taveras, but the complexion of the Texas outfield is beginning to change in dramatic fashion. Top prospect Evan Carter made his big league debut late in the 2023 season and took the playoffs by storm. He’s just 21 years old, but after hitting .306/.413/.635 in 75 plate appearances down the stretch and .300/.417/.500 in another 72 postseason trips to the plate, he’s the heavy favorite to play left field regularly.

Meanwhile, 2023 No. 4 overall pick Wyatt Langford breezed through minor league pitching in 2023, batting .360/.480/.677 in 200 plate appearances across four levels. Langford reached Triple-A for the final five games of his season and is in the mix to break camp with the Rangers. He could join Carter and Garcia in a carousel of sorts between the outfield corners and the DH spot in manager Bruce Bochy’s lineup.

Rangers Notes: Scherzer, Montgomery, Garcia

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Rangers fans received good news during the club’s FanFest this weekend, as future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer provided an update on his health following back surgery earlier this winter. As noted by Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today, Scherzer noted that he has yet to suffer any setbacks in his recovery in the six weeks since he went under the knife, and added that he expects to begin working out in about three weeks. While that timeline puts him on pace to begin workouts shortly after Spring Training begins next month, there’s still a lengthy rehab ahead for Scherzer, who GM Chris Young indicated when announcing the surgery last month would be sidelined into June or even July of the coming campaign.

An eight-time All Star and three-time Cy Young award winner, Scherzer’s return to the rotation over the summer is sure to provide a major boost to the club’s pitching corps. The veteran righty pitched to a 3.20 ERA and 3.41 FIP in 45 innings of work for the Rangers down the stretch before being sidelined in September due to the back issues that would ultimately require surgery. Scherzer managed to work his way back onto the mound for three short starts during the club’s championship run before ultimately being shut down for the season following three scoreless innings during Game 3 of the World Series against the Diamondbacks.

With Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and offseason signing Tyler Mahle all expected to open the 2024 season on the shelf, the Rangers have plenty of questions marks in the Opening Day rotation. The starting five in Texas currently projects to be Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning, and Cody Bradford as things stand, without much healthy depth behind that quintet to protect against additional injury woes. The club’s clear rotation needs have paved the way for the club to be tied to a reunion with lefty Jordan Montgomery throughout the winter, though Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News recently cast doubt on the likelihood of the sides coming together on a deal when all is said and done. During a recent appearance on a the Foul Territory podcast, Grant noted that while he believes that both sides have interest in a reunion, he thinks that the club would rather rely on minor league pitching talents to step up and contribute at the big league level early in the season while Scherzer, deGrom, and Mahle rehab than offer Montgomery a hefty deal in the 5-6 year range.

While the Rangers have a trio of pitching prospects in Owen White, Jack Leiter, and Kumar Rocker who were recently very well regarded, both Leiter and White had difficult 2023 campaigns while Rocker made just six professional starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery in May of last year and may not even reach the upper levels of the minors in 2024, much less the big leagues. Given those question marks, it’s hardly a surprise that the club has at least remained engaged with Montgomery. Speculatively speaking, the club could perhaps look to lower-tier alternatives remaining on the starting pitching market such as Mike Clevinger and Hyun Jin Ryu to bolster their depth in the event Montgomery signs elsewhere.

Moving from the rotation to the offense, Stephen Hawkins of the Associated Press recently reported that the Rangers remain at odds with star outfielder Adolis Garcia regarding his 2024 salary with arbitration hearings just around the corner. The only Ranger who didn’t reach an agreement with the club prior to the deadline earlier this month, Garcia requested a salary of $6.9MM while the Rangers countered with $5MM. That $1.9MM gap is the widest among all players who failed to reach an agreement before the deadline. While many teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to salary arbitration, meaning that they do not continue negotiations after figures are exchanged, Young noted that the club has remained in contact with Garcia’s camp and that the club is “very encouraged” by the dialogue between the two sides.

For Garcia’s part, the 30-year-old slugger said he wasn’t sure if there was a chance of avoiding an arbitration hearing and added that he’s “just a little bit disappointed” about how the process has gone. Garcia enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2023, slashing .245/.328/.508 in 632 trips to the plate as he notched his second career All Star appearance. The slugger also earned a Gold Glove award for his work in right field and posted a .323/.382/.786 slash line in the postseason en route to MVP honors for the ALCS.

Requested Salary Figures For 22 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline

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Today was the deadline for teams and players eligible for arbitration to exchange salary figures for the 2024 season ahead of possible arbitration hearings. And, as usual, the vast majority of eligible players worked out deals for 2024 (and, in some cases, beyond) before the deadline this afternoon. While these agreements are all listed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, unfinished business remains around the league. 22 players have not yet settled on a salary for the 2024 and are therefore at risk of having their salaries determined by an arbiter. That number is down considerably from last season, when 33 players exchanged figures. Of note, this list does not include Brewers right-hander Devin Williams. While the sides exchanged figures earlier this evening, they managed to avoid arbitration after the deadline had passed.

This year, arbitration hearings will begin on January 29th and run through February 16th, two days after pitchers and catchers are due to report for Spring Training. While there’s nothing stopping teams and players from settling to avoid arbitration between now and their hearing, the majority of clubs employ a “file and trial” approach to arbitration hearings, stopping negotiations prior to the formal exchange of figures in order to put additional pressure on players to agree to a deal early. While this approach generally puts a moratorium on discussion of one-year deals, teams are typically still willing to discuss multi-year pacts beyond today’s deadline.

Below are the 22 players who have yet to reach an agreement regarding their 2024 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salaries and the counteroffers issued by clubs. The league tends to pay close attention to arbitration salaries because outliers can serve as precedent going forward, raising the bar both for individual players and players as a whole in the future. That reality incentivizes teams to strictly stick to a “file and trial” approach in arbitration and risk a tense hearing between club and player rather than bridge even fairly minimal gaps between club and player salary figures.

[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]

14 of the league’s 30 clubs have at least one case that has yet to be settled. The Orioles have the most cases that have yet to be settled, with five players on track for a hearing against the club. That being said, it’s worth noting that Baltimore has a massive, 17-player class of arbitration-eligible players, so it’s hardly a surprise that they wound up exchanging figures with an elevated number of players. Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. submitted the highest salary figure among all players headed for a hearing at $19.9MM, while the Rangers and outfielder Adolis Garcia narrowly top Guerrero and the Blue Jays for the largest gap between figures, with $1.9MM separating Garcia’s request of $6.9MM from the Rangers’ $5MM counteroffer.

The total list, which will be updated as settlements are reached and the results of hearings are made available…

Shohei Ohtani Wins AL MVP

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Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani has been voted the Most Valuable Player in the American League for 2023, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien of the Rangers were second and third in the voting, respectively.

The news hardly comes as a surprise, with Ohtani having delivered another two-way season for the Angels in which the only precedent was himself. He made 23 starts as a pitcher, tossing 132 innings with an earned run average of 3.14. His 10.4% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he struck out 31.5% of batters faced. Among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched on the year, only Spencer Strider punched out opponents at a greater rate.

As a hitter, he launched 44 home runs and drew walks at a 15.2% clip. His .304/.412/.654 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 180, indicating he was 80% better overall than the average hitter. He accomplished all of these things despite having his season cut short by injury. Due to some finger issues and then a torn UCL, he only tossed 1 1/3 innings after August 9 and not at all after August 23. He continued hitting but he later suffered an oblique strain and his last game as either a hitter or pitcher was September 3.

That didn’t matter as Ohtani had already racked up enough accomplishments to take home the award for a second time, the first coming in 2021. If it weren’t for Aaron Judge’s record-breaking 62 home runs last year, Ohtani would have gotten a hat trick. The BBWAA notes that this is the first time a player has won a unanimous MVP twice. The most unique baseball player of all time is now the most unique free agent of all time and is surely in line to break another record, or records, when he finally puts pen to paper.

Seager and Semien each had fine seasons in their own right, but had little chance to catch Ohtani here, though they have World Series rings to soften the blow. Seager hit 33 home runs and had a wRC+ of 169 while those numbers were 29 and 124 for Semien.

Other players receiving votes were Julio Rodríguez, Kyle Tucker, Yandy Díaz, Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, José Ramírez, Gerrit Cole, Luis Robert Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Adolis García, Judge, Bo Bichette, J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh, Rafael Devers, Isaac Paredes, Sonny Gray, Alex Bregman and Josh Naylor.

Gold Glove Winners Announced

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Major League Baseball announced the Gold Glove winners tonight, as selected by a group of managers, coaches, and statistical analysis.  Twenty-five percent of the selection total was determined by SABR’s Defensive Index metrics, while the other 75 percent was determined by votes from all 30 managers and up to six coaches from each team.  Of the latter pool, managers and coaches were limited to voting on players in their own league, and they weren’t allowed to vote for any players on their own team.  The utility Gold Glove wasn’t determined with any votes, but rather via a defensive formula calculated by SABR and Rawlings.

The list of winners…

 

Rangers Remove Adolis Garcia, Max Scherzer From World Series Roster

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6:11PM: The Rangers have officially replaced Garcia and Scherzer on the World Series roster with Duran and left-hander Brock Burke, the league announced.  Burke had a 4.37 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, and 3.8% walk rate over 59 2/3 innings for Texas this season, initially working as a multi-inning reliever before settling into a more standard one-inning bullpen role.  The southpaw has made only one appearance during the Rangers’ playoff run, tossing one-third of an inning in Game 2 of the ALDS against the Orioles.

5:12PM: Adolis Garcia and Max Scherzer each left yesterday’s Game 3 with injuries, as Garcia was removed with an apparent side injury after a big swing in the eighth inning and Scherzer lasted only three innings on the mound due to back tightness.  Providing updates on both players today, Rangers manager Bruce Bochy told media that the club had yet to make a formal decision about whether or not either Garcia or Scherzer would be replaced on the World Series roster, but that decision might come prior to the start of tonight’s Game 4.

“It’s not great news” about Garcia, as Bochy bluntly put it, as the outfielder has suffered “a moderate strain of the oblique.”  Garcia took some swings to test his readiness and is undergoing treatment from team trainers, but he has already been ruled out of the starting lineup, as Travis Jankowski will instead get the nod tonight in Garcia’s customary right field spot.  As for Scherzer, the veteran right-hander’s back is still “pretty locked up,” putting his readiness for another appearance later in the Series into serious doubt.

Since a player cannot return to action in the World Series once he is removed from the roster, it is understandable why Texas is being as cautious as possible before making a final call on Garcia and Scherzer.  That said, it is hard to imagine either getting healthy enough to play within the short window of time remaining in the postseason.  The Rangers simply can’t afford to play essentially two men down, and even though Scherzer probably wouldn’t have pitched again until a possible Game 7 if healthy, the Rangers would still be fielding a shorthanded roster in the event that Scherzer was given an extra day or two for more observation.  Getting a fresh arm in Scherzer’s place would also help the bullpen sooner rather than later.

Ezequiel Duran has already been tabbed as the replacement should Garcia indeed be removed from the roster, yet obviously there’s no way to truly replace his huge contributions to the Texas lineup.  Garcia has been perhaps the biggest star of the Rangers’ playoff run, as he has hit .323/.382/.726 with eight home runs over 68 plate appearances this postseason.  Garcia’s 15 RBI during the ALCS set a new record for most RBI in a postseason series, and Garcia was rightly named ALCS MVP for his heroics in the Rangers’ seven-game triumph over the Astros.

Max Scherzer, Adolis García Leave World Series Game 3 With Injuries

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10:26 pm: Max Scherzer told reporters after the game, including Bob Nightengale of USA Today, that his back locked up ahead of the fourth inning. The spasm was unrelated to the batted ball that hit him in the back earlier in the game (per Alden González of ESPN). As reported by Levi Weaver of The Athletic, Scherzer has had this issue before; sometimes, it clears within two or three days, but on some occasions, it has been significantly worse. Thus, his availability for the rest of the series is up in the air.

García, meanwhile, is set to undergo an MRI, per Nightengale.

10:15 pm: Although the Rangers beat the Diamondbacks to take a 2-1 lead in the World Series, it wasn’t all good news for Texas on Monday night. Two of the club’s biggest stars left the game early with injuries: future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer and postseason hero Adolis García.

Scherzer took the mound in the bottom of the fourth, but he would leave the field without throwing another pitch. He held the Diamondbacks scoreless over three innings, needing just 36 pitches to get the first nine outs. However, as he began to warm up for the fourth, manager Bruce Bochy and a trainer came to the mound and walked the 39-year-old off the field. Soon after, the team announced that he had left the game with back tightness (per Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic). Presumably, the injury was caused by a comebacker from Alek Thomas that hit him squarely in the back during the second inning.

Scherzer missed the first two series of the postseason as he continued to rehab from the teres major strain he suffered during the regular season. He returned for the ALCS, but after a couple of rough outings, he told reporters (including David Lennon of Newsday) that a cut on his thumb was affecting his performance. Now, yet another injury has prevented the long-time ace from pitching like his typical self in the playoffs. It remains unclear if he will be available for a potential Game 7, should the series reach that point.

Jon Gray was lights out in relief of Scherzer, pitching three scoreless innings of his own, striking out three, and giving up just one hit. He collected the win, the first postseason victory of his career. Unfortunately, that means he won’t be available for Game 4 tomorrow; previously, he had seemed like the leading candidate to get the start. Now, it’s likely that Bochy will hand the ball to one of Dane Dunning or Andrew Heaney, although the leash will be short for either one.

García exited later in the game with tightness in his left side (per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). He seemed to hurt himself on a bad swing, as he flew out to end the eighth. While the Rangers have not yet provided more specific details about his injury (presumably, he needs to undergo some tests), it seems likely the problem is in his oblique. That could be bad news for the Rangers offense, of which García has been, perhaps, the most productive performer. Entering Game 3, he was leading his team in batting average, slugging percentage, home runs, and RBI in the postseason.

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