Albert Pujols

Latest On Albert Pujols

By Connor Byrne | May 15, 2021 at 11:38am CDT

11:38am: Heyman now reports that there’s not “much traction” on a potential Cardinals-Pujols reunion.

10:01am: Legendary slugger Albert Pujols became a free agent Thursday, one week after the Angels designated him for assignment, and the first baseman is now garnering interest from a few teams. Three to four clubs are in on Pujols, Robert Murray of FanSided reports. St. Louis is part of that group, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Katie Woo of The Athletic tweeted Friday that the team has “had limited internal conversations” about a possible deal for Pujols. However, Woo added that the Cardinals had yet to contact Pujols’ camp.

While Woo suggests the Cardinals are unlikely to add Pujols, doing so would make for a compelling story. Pujols, of course, spent the first 11 seasons of his career (2001-11) in St. Louis, where he became a franchise icon and helped the team to a pair of World Series championships. On an individual level, Pujols earned nine All-Star nods, won three National League Most Valuable Player Awards and the NL Rookie of the Year, among many other accolades.

Pujols’ fruitful run with the Cardinals ended heading into the 2012 campaign, when he inked a 10-year, $254MM contract with the Angels. It was the second-largest deal in baseball history at the time, though the Angels didn’t get enough bang for their buck after taking the risk. Pujols’ production declined significantly with the Halos, and dating back to 2017, he ranks second to last among 2,278 qualified position players in fWAR (minus-3.3). During that 1,934-plate appearance span, the 41-year-old has also notched a meager 84 wRC+, which is a far cry from his exemplary lifetime mark (142).

In terms of bottom-line production, this season has been more of the same for Pujols, owner of a .198/.250/.372 line (74 wRC+) with five home runs in 92 trips to the plate. But Pujols has at least shown some encouraging signs, including a typically low strikeout rate (14.1 percent) and his highest average exit velocity since 2016 (90.5 mph). Pujols is also sporting a career-worst .176 batting average on balls in play, though that’s not necessarily shocking for someone devoid of speed. Still, if that number increases and his .270 weighted on-base average moves closer to his .347 expected wOBA, Pujols could perhaps serve as a useful bat/veteran leader for a club willing to take a chance on someone with 667 home runs on his resume.

Albert Pujols Clears Waivers, Becomes Free Agent

By Steve Adams | May 13, 2021 at 11:07pm CDT

Following last week’s abrupt DFA, future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols has cleared release waivers and is now a free agent, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. He’s free to sign with any club.

It’s not a surprise to see Pujols go unclaimed, given that any team that claimed him would have also been on the hook for the remainder of the $30MM salary he’s owed this year in the final season of a 10-year, $240MM contract. Now that he’s a free agent, the Angels are on the hook for that salary regardless of where he ends up playing. A new team need only pay the prorated portion of the league minimum for any time spent in the big leagues, and that sum would be subtracted from what the Angels owe him.

The decision to part ways with Pujols was sudden and unexpected, even in spite of the aging slugger’s diminished performance. Following the move, Angels brass addressed reporters and explained that the split was agreed upon after the Angels approached Pujols about a reduction in playing time (link via The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya).

“The guy wanted to play, wants to be on the field,” manager Joe Maddon said of Pujols. “He does not want to be a bench player of any kind. This guy’s got a lot of pride, and that’s a big reason why he’s going to be a first-ballot, unanimous Hall of Famer. There’s no question about that.”

Of course, it’s hard to imagine Pujols being dropped into an everyday role with another club. Most National League teams wouldn’t want to play him at first base every day given his range and mobility (or lack thereof). And given the fact that he’s only produced a .198/.250/.372 slash in 2021 and a .240/.289/.405 line since 2016, he’s a tough sell as a regular designated hitter in the American League.

While Pujols’ bat has been anemic, there are some more positive indicators in his overall offensive profile. He’s been plagued by a tiny .176 average on balls in play in 2021, and while some of that is to be expected since he’s less likely than your average hitter to beat out any sort of hit on the ground, he’s also gone hitless on fly-balls that stay in the yard. The league average on non-homer fly-balls is .109.

Pujols’ average exit velocity (90.5 mph) is its best since 2016, as his rate of barreled balls, as measured by Statcast. He’s only walked three times in 92 plate appearances, which is an obvious concern for someone who should be a bat-first player at this point of his career, but his 14.1 percent strikeout rate is also much smaller than the league average. Based on the frequency and quality of Pujols’ contact, Statcast gives him an “expected” .265 average and a similarly heartening .511 “expected” slugging percentage. Those numbers can change in a hurry, given the small nature of the sample, but there’s reason to believe he might yet have some productive at-bats in him.

Then again, given his lack of defensive and baserunning value, Pujols would need to be considerably better than a league-average hitter to hold much appeal, even at a league-minimum rate. He hasn’t been that — or even been particularly close to it — since the conclusion of a 2016 season in which he batted .268/.323/.457 with 31 homers.

Angels Designate Albert Pujols For Assignment

By Steve Adams | May 6, 2021 at 10:56pm CDT

The Albert Pujols era in Anaheim has come to an end. In a shocking move, the Angels announced Thursday that Pujols has been designated for assignment. The DFA is largely a formality, as Pujols and the remainder of his $30MM salary will go unclaimed on waivers. It’s possible the Halos could work out some kind of trade where they effectively eat all of that salary, but a release is most likely. Pujols is in the final season of a 10-year, $240MM contract.

“The Angels organization proudly signed Albert Pujols in 2011, and are honored that he was worn an Angels jersey for nearly half of his Hall-of-Fame career,” owner Arte Moreno said in a statement announcing the move. “Albert’s historical accomplishments, both on and off the field, serve as an inspiration to athletes everywhere, and his actions define what it means to be a true Superstar. Since his Rookie of the Year season in 2001, Albert and his wife Deidre have generously given their time and resources to countless charities throughout the world. We are thankful to the entire Pujols Family.”

It’s a stunning end to one of the largest contracts in Major League history, although from a pure performance standpoint, it’s hard to fault the move. The 41-year-old Pujols has connected on five homers in 2021 but is batting just .198/.250/.372 overall. He’s drawn only two unintentional walks in his 92 trips to the plate this season. The results in 2020 were similarly disappointing, and Pujols has an overall .214/.263/.387 line across his past 255 plate appearances.

Pujols’ fit on the Angels has become increasingly difficult, given Shohei Ohtani’s flat-out excellence at the plate and the emergence of slugger Jared Walsh. The 26-year-old Ohtani is batting .264/.316/.623 with nine home runs through 114 plate appearances. Walsh, a former 37th-round pick, has built upon last year’s surprise production with a ridiculous .333/.412/.576 line in 114 plate appearances, bringing his overall output since Opening Day 2020 to a robust .313/.369/.611 in 222 plate appearances.

Even with Pujols forced into action at first base, this announcement has sent shockwaves through the baseball world. Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times reports that Pujols was unhappy not only with the fact that he was benched against Rays lefty Ryan Yarbrough last night — against whom he is 6-for-9 with a pair of homers in his career — but that the decision to sit him was made by the front office rather than by manager Joe Maddon. The extent to which that specific instance contributed to today’s move isn’t clear, but MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that Pujols was also recently given the message that his playing time would begin to be scaled back.

Pujols’ signing in Los Angeles was a watershed moment in both Angels and Cardinals franchise history. The three-time National League MVP spent the first 11 seasons of a surefire Cooperstown career in St. Louis, cementing himself as one of the game’s top all-around players while batting .328/.420/.617 with 445 home runs through 7433 plate appearances.

Pujols hit the market as one of the most coveted free agents in history. At the time of his signing, his 10-year, $240MM deal was the third-largest in MLB history, trailing only Alex Rodriguez’s prior $252MM and $275MM contracts. That contract was negotiated by Moreno himself, and it’s now Moreno who has formally made the announcement and issued a statement confirming the end of Pujols’ time with the organization.

The contract, of course, didn’t pan out as hoped. Pujols began his Angels tenure mired in a dreadful slump, though he recovered to finish his first year with a .285/.343/.516 slash and 30 home runs. With the Angels, Pujols was never the juggernaut that he’d proven to be in St. Louis, but the first five seasons of his contract still resulted in a solid .266/.325/.474 batting line — good for a 119 wRC+. It’s not the production for which the Halos had hoped, but it’s a far sight better than the cumulative .240/.289/.405 output he’s compiled since 2017.

Pujols hit several iconic milestones during his time with the Angels, belting his 500th and 600th career home runs and also tallying his 3000th hit. But beyond the individual milestones, the Angels had only one postseason appearance during the Pujols era — a winless, three-game sweep at the hands of the upstart Royals back in 2014.

It’s not clear what’s next for Pujols. There’s already been immediate speculation and plenty of clamoring from fans about a farewell tour in St. Louis. A reunion of Pujols, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright would no doubt give Cards fans chills, but with Paul Goldschmidt at first base and no universal designated hitter, Pujols isn’t exactly a clean fit for that roster.

Others have suggested a reunion with skipper Tony La Russa, now managing the White Sox, also might make some sense. However, Yermin Mercedes has been the team’s best hitter at DH, and reigning MVP Jose Abreu has first base locked down. It still seems likely that some club will take a chance on Pujols if he wants to continue playing.

For the Angels, moving on from Pujols allows the club to utilize Walsh at first base and Ohtani at designated hitter once top prospects Jo Adell and/or Brandon Marsh are called to the Major Leagues for a look in right field. Were either to hit at even an average (or slightly below-average) level upon his promotion, that’d give the Angels both an improved lineup and an improved defensive outlook.

The organization surely didn’t make the decision to move on lightly. Beyond his stature as one of the best players in Major League history, Pujols is a beloved teammate who is respected by all in the league and revered by fans for both his on-field contributions and his prolific charity work off the field. The very fact that there is such widespread shock to a see the DFA of a player with his lack of production over the past few seasons is a testament to that reverence. Time will tell whether that leads to another opportunity.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand first reported (via Twitter) that Pujols would be released.

Quick Hits: Pujols, Blue Jays, Kennedy, Santana

By Mark Polishuk and TC Zencka | February 27, 2021 at 11:11pm CDT

There was a brief flurry of speculation about Albert Pujols’ future earlier this week when Deirdre Pujols, the Angels veteran’s wife, created an Instagram post that seemed to hint that the future Hall-of-Famer would call it a career after the 2021 season. Deirdre clarified her online statement soon after posting, and her husband also addressed the matter in speaking with media (including The Associated Press) today at Spring Training.

“This thing just got blown out of proportion,” Pujols said. “My mind is not even there. My mind is on staying focused, healthy, and hopefully trying to help this ballclub win this year, and that’s it. If I feel at the end of the year that that’s it, I’ll announce it [and] go home. But I’m not even there yet.”

Pujols is entering the final season of his ten-year, $240MM deal with the Angels, and 2021 will be the slugger’s 21st MLB campaign. After four years of subpar offensive production, it would certainly seem like the 41-year-old is nearing the end of the line, though it seems we won’t know for certain until the season is through.

Quick Hits: Pujols, T. Rosenthal, Gardner, Hoskins

By Connor Byrne | February 22, 2021 at 9:42pm CDT

Deirdre Pujols, wife of Angels first baseman Albert Pujols, suggested on Instagram on Monday that this will be the final season of the 41-year-old’s storied career. However, she quickly amended her post and made it clear that he won’t necessarily retire after 2021. Indeed, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times was among those to report that Pujols hasn’t made a decision on his future beyond this year. But as someone who has struggled immensely over the past few seasons, it doesn’t seem likely that the future Hall of Famer will land another guaranteed contract even if he wants to play in 2022. Regardless, he’ll earn $30MM this season on the 10-year, $254MM deal he signed with the Angels entering the 2012 campaign.

The Brewers were among the teams that tried to sign reliever Trevor Rosenthal before he inked a one-year, $11MM guarantee with the Athletics, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. The Braves were also known to be in the mix, and they made the right-hander a back-loaded offer for two years, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Trevor Rosenthal ultimately chose the A’s back-loaded proposal (they’ll pay him through 2023).
Outfielder Brett Gardner re-signed with the Yankees for a $5.15MM guarantee, but at least a few other teams considered prying him out of New York. The Braves, Angels and Blue Jays all showed interest in Gardner during his long stay in free agency, per Heyman. However, Gardner’s goal was to remain a member of the Yankees. A 2005 third-round pick who made his big league debut in 2008, Gardner is easily the Yankees’ longest-tenured player.
Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins, who underwent Tommy John surgery last October, said that he has been “medically cleared” for all spring training activities, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer relays. It’s not certain whether Hoskins will be in the Phillies’ lineup on Opening Day – that will depend on how many reps he gets this spring – but it’s not “out of the picture,” he stated. After a somewhat disappointing 2019, the 27-year-old slugger enjoyed a major rebound last season, when he slashed .245/.384/.503 (140 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 185 plate appearances.

Quick Hits: Round Numbers, Red Sox Rotation, Astros

By TC Zencka | July 11, 2020 at 9:57am CDT

If there’s something fans and baseball players can agree on, it’s a love of round numbers. Unfortunately, because of the pandemic-shortened seasons, many of baseball’s legendary Latino contemporaries may have to put away their obsession with certain benchmarks, writes ESPN’s Enrique Rojas. Albert Pujols needs 44 home runs to reach 700. Miguel Cabrera is 185 hits from 3,000 and 23 home runs from 500. Robinson Cano is just under 500 hits away from 3,000. Their ability to reach these markers is taking a hit with a shortened 2020. Given the changes in the game, there’s certainly a question about how long milestones of the past will continue to be held in such particular esteem. Rate statistics like wRC+ have already taken hold in some parts of the baseballsphere, and it’s certainly worth wondering if similar metrics will start to be used more in conjunction with traditional statistical benchmarks (300 wins, 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, etc.). Now let’s see what’s happening on the field…

It’s looking less and less likely that Eduardo Rodriguez will be back in time to start the Red Sox Opening Day contest, per Chris Cotillo of masslive.com. That puts Nathan Eovaldi in line to get the Opening Day nod. The rest of the Red Sox rotation remains a bit of a mess, certainly a far cry from the squad the took the team to the World Series just two seasons ago. But with Chris Sale on the shelf, David Price and Rick Porcello both gone, Boston is turning to the likes of Martin Perez, Ryan Weber, Chris Mazza, Jeffrey Springs, Colten Brewer and Matt Hall for rotation consideration. Collin McHugh, signed at the tail end of free agency, will not be ready by Opening Day. The Red Sox are counting on less-heralded performers than in year’s past, but there’s room for someone (or a few someone’s) to step up and stake their claim to a locker in Boston.
The Astros canceled their workout today after someone on staff became exposed to COVID-19, per Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (via Twitter). GM James Click released a statement: “As part of MLB’s testing and reporting plan, we were alerted that a staff member was potentially exposed to a COVID-positive individual outside the organization. Out of an abundance of caution, we have cancelled today’s workout.” These sorts of snow days may become commonplace, at least in these early days. Still, it’s an important measure. Credit the Astros for taking the necessary amount of caution here. [UPDATE: the Astros announced that workouts at Minute Maid Park will resume on Sunday.]

The Most Stacked Lineup Of The Millennium Missed The Playoffs

By TC Zencka | June 27, 2020 at 10:21am CDT

With MVPs Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts sharing a lineup with thumpers like Justin Turner, Max Muncy, and Corey Seager, the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup is stacked. That’s five players who have proved capable of posting 5-6 WAR seasons. We can even include A.J. Pollock in that group (6.8 fWAR in 2015) if we’re being generous – though it would open some eyes to see Pollack produce at that level again (even for a 60-game span). The ceiling hasn’t been set on youngsters like Will Smith and Gavin Lux, who could very well enter that elite territory with a best-case development future. There’s no denying that the Dodgers have a loaded lineup – but has there been a more MVP-loaded lineup in recent history?

The most stacked lineup of the last twenty years belongs to an 85-win, 3rd place St. Louis Cardinals team from 2003. “Most-stacked,” of course, isn’t exactly an official metric, so let me define it. Fangraphs explains fWAR in their glossary by classifying a “good player” as worth 3-4 fWAR, an “All-Star” to be worth 4-5 fWAR, and a “superstar” as worth 5-6 fWAR. But for the “most-stacked” lineup, we want the cream of the crop. Fangraphs classifies MVPs as those worth 6+ fWAR in a given season, so I went looking for the lineup with the most “MVPs”, and I found the unequivocal champ with the 2003 St. Louis Cardinals.

Not only did the Cardinals carry four MVP-caliber bats that season, but they’re the only team since 2000 to accomplish that feat. There have been four other teams since 2000 with three bats in the lineup worth 6+ fWAR (2004 Orioles, 2003 Braves, 2004 Cardinals, 2011 Red Sox) – but only Tony La Russa’s Cardinals fielded a quartet of such players.

Albert Pujols (9.5 fWAR), Jim Edmonds (6.3 fWAR), Edgar Renteria (6.3 fWAR), and Scott Rolen (6.2 fWAR) each put up an “MVP-like” seasons in 2003. The 23-year-old Pujols would have been a shoo-in to snag the actual NL MVP, but that was the era of supernova Barry Bonds, who won his third of four consecutive MVPs (10.2 fWAR) that season.

The Cardinals finished 5th in the majors in runs scored with 876, second in total fWAR on offense, fourth in wRC+. J.D. Drew, Tino Martinez, and Bo Hart were productive members of the lineup, So Taguchi gave them 59 plate appearances with a 109 wRC+, and Eduardo Perez (122 wRC+) was a successful power bat off the bench. Only at catcher did they really struggle offensively, where Mike Matheny hit .252/.320/.356 to total 0.4 fWAR while starting 121 games behind the dish. In short, the offense did its part.

Unfortunately, the entirety of the Cardinals pitching staff mustered just 7.3 fWAR. They finished 19th in ERA, 22nd in FIP, and 26th in home runs per nine innings. The bullpen was a particular disaster, finishing the season dead last in the majors with -1.8 fWAR. The rotation boasted legitimate arms in Woody Williams, Matt Morris, and less so, Brett Tomko. Dan Haren made an okay major league debut with 14 starts and a 5.08 ERA/4.57 FIP.

That said, they could have done without the 55 starts from Garrett Stephenson, in what would be his last dash as an MLB hurler, Sterling Hitchcock in his second-to-last season, 40-year-old Jeff Fassero, and Jason Simontacchi, who was coming off a surprisingly decent rookie season at age-28.

Giving 34 percent of their starts to suboptimal contributors didn’t pave the runway for the bullpen to take flight, but the relief crew struggled all their own. In particular, the main culprits were (again) Fassero (56 games, 6.52 ERA/6.13 FIP), Dustin Hermanson (23 games, 5.46 ERA/5.49 FIP), Russ Springer (17 games, 8.31 ERA/8.97 FIP), and Esteban Yan (39 games, 6.02 ERA/5.59 FIP). It didn’t help that injuries limited closer Jason Isringhausen to 40 games and 22 saves. He would otherwise anchor the Cardinals’ bullpens of that era.

The 2003 Cardinals paint a picture of the difficulties in team-building. Four monster seasons making up half their everyday lineup, and still the Cardinals only managed to eke out a third-place finish. They underperformed their Pythagorean record, but only by three wins. The Cubs won the division with exactly 88 wins, overperforming their Pythagorean record by – you guessed it – three wins.

Things can go right – so right – in any given season, and it still might not be enough to counterbalance what goes wrong. That’s not to say that the 2020 Dodgers are in trouble – but their spot in the postseason is hardly assured. The ’03 Cardinals had the most MVP-level bats of any team in the past 20 years, and yet it was only enough for 85 wins. The margin for error will only be smaller in a short season.

Of course, here’s the other funny little part of baseball. Pujols/Rolen/Edmonds/Renteria couldn’t power their way to the postseason in 2003, but the foundation in St. Louis was solid. They did reach the postseason in 2002, 2004, 2005, and 2006. La Russa’s Cardinals capped off the run with a World Series title. That season, they finished with 83 wins, one less than the “disappointment” their stacked lineup produced in 2003.

So the most-stacked lineup of the millennium missed the playoffs, and the “worst” division winner of the millennium won the World Series. If that’s not a good primer for the chaos to come in a short season, I don’t know what is.

Pujols To Cover Salaries Of Angels’ Furloughed Employees In Dominican Republic

By Steve Adams | June 19, 2020 at 10:22am CDT

The Angels have been panned for implementing some of the industry’s most aggressive cuts throughout their scouting and player development staffs, and first baseman/designated hitter Albert Pujols is offering a helping hand to some of his countrymen who’ve been impacted. According to Maria Torres of the L.A. Times, Pujols will pay the salaries of the Angels’ furloughed employees at their academy in the Dominican Republic for the next five months.

Pujols becomes the latest established veteran to make a gesture along these lines, joining Dodgers lefty David Price and Rangers outfielder/DH Shin-Soo Choo — each of whom donated $1,000 to every minor leaguer in his respective organization to help cover lost wages. Pujols’ gesture will cost him roughly $180K, per Torres. Cynics and critics will surely point out that it’s a relatively minimal sum for Pujols, but that doesn’t detract from the fact that he was under no obligation to step up in this manner. And, those on the receiving end of his generosity are undoubtedly moved by his unexpected decision.

Meanwhile, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports that the Halos have at least slightly scaled back some of their planned budgetary cuts. Nine of the team’s scouts will return to work in light of MLB recently lifting some of the restrictions it had placed on in-person amateur scouting. Some of those scouts are working this week’s Perfect Game Showcase in Alabama, which began on Wednesday.

Albert Pujols Hasn’t Ruled Out Playing Beyond 2021 Season

By Mark Polishuk | May 2, 2020 at 6:00pm CDT

Albert Pujols’ ten-year, $240MM deal with the Angels is set to expire after the 2021 season, and it has been widely assumed that the slugger would retire once that contract is up. However, while 2021 is “my last year under contract…that doesn’t mean I can’t keep playing,” Pujols told ESPN.com’s Alden Gonzalez. “I haven’t closed that door.”

It should be observed that Pujols isn’t making a statement about his future in either direction, merely that he isn’t yet ready to make a decision that is still well over a year away. “I’m taking it day by day, year by year, but you haven’t heard from my mouth that I’m going to retire next year, or that it’s going to be my last year, or that I’m going to keep playing,” Pujols said. “I haven’t said any of that. When that time comes, we’ll see. Just because you have one year left on your contract doesn’t mean it’s your last year. It could be, but it could not be. God hasn’t put that in my heart yet.”

2022 will be Pujols’ age-42 season, and he has been beset by both injuries and an overall decline in performance over the last few years. While surgeries on both his right elbow and left knee in 2018 allowed for Pujols to have his cleanest bill of health in some time last season, it didn’t translate to a resurgence at the plate, as he hit .244/.305/.430 with 23 home runs over 545 plate appearances. Both Fangraphs (-2.6 fWAR) and Baseball Reference (-0.6 bWAR) rate Pujols as a sub-replacement level player from 2017-19, with Fangraphs giving him a negative fWAR in each of the last three seasons.

Barring a major late-career revival, it is hard to see how there could be much of a market for Pujols if he does wish to keep playing in 2022. There isn’t much roster value in a 42-year-old who can only play first base — and who will still require regular DH days — and doesn’t offer much with the bat, and one would imagine Pujols might not have much interest in signing with a non-contender just for the sake of continuing to play.

As Gonzalez notes, there are some big statistical milestones still within reach for Pujols, who has 656 career homers (sixth all-time), 2075 RBI (fifth all-time), and 3202 hits (15th all-time). Since the 2020 season will be greatly abbreviated and possibly canceled altogether, Pujols would surely have to play into 2022 to have a shot at joining Henry Aaron as the only players in the 700-homer/3500-hit club, and potentially break Aaron’s all-time record of 2297 career RBI.

While Pujols would surely love to make an even further impact on baseball’s record book, it remains to be seen if he would actually try to stick around long enough to achieve these benchmarks, especially since it is a foregone conclusion that he’ll be a first-ballot Hall Of Famer. Of note, Pujols is also in line for a ten-year, $10MM personal services contract with the Angels organization that will kick in as soon as he retires; this deal was arranged when Pujols initially signed with the club.

Rumor Retrospection: The (Would-Be) Albert Pujols/Ryan Howard Trade Of 2010

By Mark Polishuk | March 14, 2020 at 9:35pm CDT

It was exactly a decade ago today that ESPN.com’s Buster Olney dropped a bombshell on the baseball world, reporting that the Phillies had held some internal discussions within their front office about the possibility of a blockbuster deal of first basemen — Phils slugger Ryan Howard to the Cardinals for Albert Pujols. It would have been a one-for-one trade, with both players switching uniforms with two years remaining on their current contracts.

As Olney observed in his report, the concept might well have been just an idea floated within Philadelphia’s front office, rather than an actual proposal made to the Cards. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. went a step further when asked to comment on the rumor, calling it “Lies. That’s a lie. I don’t know who you’re talking to, but that’s a lie.” (Olney defended his reporting two days later, calling it “confirmed information” and he knew “exactly who said what to whom, and how sturdy the intent was.”)

It was an eyebrow-raising trade rumor at the time, and though this particular swap apparently didn’t come close to being a reality, the concept of a straight-up superstar-for-superstar deal is still fascinating ten years later since such deals are so rare. And, in this particular instance, we can judge with a decade of hindsight how a Pujols-for-Howard trade might have worked out for both the Phillies and the Cardinals.

For St. Louis, the impact is simple — they might not have won the 2011 World Series without Pujols. 2011 marked what was, incredibly, the least-impressive of Pujols’ 11 MLB seasons, as he “only” hit .299/.366/.541 with 37 home runs over 651 PA. This performance was just the warmup for an epic postseason, as Pujols posted a 1.155 OPS over 82 PA during the Cardinals’ 18 playoff games. Pujols’ efforts included a three-homer night in Game 3 of the World Series, putting him alongside Babe Ruth and Reggie Jackson as the only men (Pablo Sandoval joined the club in 2012) to ever hit three home runs in a Series game.

Could the Cardinals have won a title with Howard in Pujols’ place? It’s possible, as while Howard wasn’t quite as productive as Pujols during the 2011 regular season, Howard still hit .276/.353/.505 and 31 homers. Who’s to say how those numbers might have differed in a new ballpark and a new environment as a Cardinal rather than as a Phillie; Howard, a St. Louis native, might have thrived with his hometown team, or perhaps struggled under the added pressure.

What likely doesn’t happen in this what-if scenario, however, is the nasty injury Howard suffered in his (and the Phillies’) last at-bat of the 2011 season. Making the final out of the 2011 NLDS, Howard tore his Achilles tendon leaving the batters’ box to run out a grounder, and he didn’t return to action until July 6, 2012. It ended up being a career-altering injury for Howard, as while he was already showing a tiny bit of decline from his prime years and any sort of dropoff for a power hitter isn’t uncommon as he enters his 30’s, the before-and-after of Howard’s Achilles injury is jarring. From 2012-16, Howard hit only .226/.292/.427 over 2122 PA.

The Phillies lost that 2011 NLDS to, ironically, the Cardinals. It was the second straight year the Phillies had fallen short in the playoffs after a dominant regular season, and it ultimately proved to be the end of that great era of Philadelphia baseball. In the eight years since, the Phillies have yet to enjoy another winning season, only managing an even .500 record on two occasions (2012, 2019). While Howard was a big part of the Phillies’ success in 2010 and 2011, replacing him with Pujols’ next-level production might well have been the difference in a World Series victory in either 2010, 2011, or both seasons.

The other major side effect of this trade is what happens after the 2012 season. A little over a month after Olney’s report, the Phillies signed Howard to a five-year, $125MM extension covering the 2012-16 seasons. Since Howard was already 30 years old at the time of the extension and under contract for two more years, there was a pretty immediate and negative reaction to the Phillies’ decision, and while the Achilles injury wasn’t foreseen, the deal indeed ended up being a bust for the Phils.

That said, does Howard still ink an extension if he ends up with St. Louis in this alternate reality? As Olney noted, the Cardinals weren’t making progress with Pujols on an extension, so they could have had interest in Howard as a potential long-term replacement. The difference, however, could’ve been that the Cards might have waited at least a season before locking Howard up. Looking back at past extensions for such Cardinals notables as Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, or Paul Goldschmidt, the team has tended to wait until just before the pending free agent’s final season under contract to finalize a new deal. A Cardinals/Howard extension could been potentially lesser in both years and dollars, if Howard has performed for the Cards in 2010 as he did in the real world (.276/.353/.505 with 31 home runs) for Philadelphia. While still strong numbers, they nonetheless represented a step back from the 50 homers Howard averaged every season from 2006-09, while also batting .278/.379/.589.

As for Pujols, he did depart St. Louis after that 2011 World Series title, signing a ten-year, $240MM deal with the Angels that still has two seasons remaining. While the Phillies were willing to splurge on Howard, extending Pujols would’ve cost twice the years and almost twice the money as Howard’s extension. Maybe the Phils (perhaps flush off Pujols leading them to a championship or two) would have decided that Pujols was worth the extra investment and signed him to a similar extension. Assuming the Pujols in this multiverse declined at the same pace as our universe’s Pujols did with the Angels, such a deal could have left the Phillies with an even bigger contractual albatross on their hands….especially if the Pujols-led 2010 Phils or 2011 Phils hadn’t won a World Series, leaving the team without even a “flags fly forever” silver lining.

Another route is that the Phils work out a more creative extension with Pujols, perhaps overwriting the terms of his 2010-11 salaries to give him more money sooner and less money on the back end in his decline years. Or, in what might have been ultimately the best-case scenario for Philadelphia, the team could have just let Pujols depart for free agency after the 2011 season. That would have left room in the Phils’ budget and a hole at first base, which could have put the team in the market for another of that offseason’s top free agent first basemen — Prince Fielder.

Needless to say, such a major trade would’ve greatly altered the last decade of Major League Baseball, and likely swung at least one World Series result. Given how the last ten years played out for the Phillies, maybe there’s someone from that club’s front office who, if this trade proposal indeed never got past the internal discussion phase, wishes they’d picked up the phone to at least give the Cards a call.

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