Poll: Recent No. 2 Picks
With the first round of the Major League Baseball draft in the works, teams are angling to land long-term cornerstones as we speak. The Royals, for instance, tabbed high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. second overall on Monday. If things go according to plan, he’ll evolve into a franchise player the way other recent second overall selections have. The best No. 2 choices over the past several years have been Kris Bryant, who joined the Cubs in 2013, and 2015 Astros pick Alex Bregman. The two have become stars since their respective draft nights, but whom would you rather have?
Bryant, now 27, exploded on the scene in 2015, winning NL Rookie of the Year honors with a 6.1-fWAR season, and hasn’t looked back since. The third baseman/outfielder added an NL MVP and a World Series to his list of accomplishments in 2016, the season he helped the Cubs break a 108-year title drought. Bryant’s now a two-time All-Star with a career slash line of .284/.386/.518 (141 wRC+), 120 home runs and 25.3 fWAR in 2,715 lifetime plate appearances.
Bregman’s also a world champion, having aided in the Astros’ victory in 2017. That was the year after Bregman debuted in the majors. Since then, the 25-year-old infielder – whose primary position is third – has earned an All-Star nod and batted a Bryant-like .280/.369/.507 (140 wRC+) with 75 long balls, 31 steals and 14.8 fWAR across 1,804 trips to the plate.
Beyond the fact that they’re two of the most valuable players in baseball, Bryant and Bregman are each under control for at least the next couple seasons. Bryant, who’s on a $12.9MM salary, has two more years of arbitration eligibility left after this one. The Astros, on the other hand, will avoid the arb process with Bregman as they move forward. Houston locked Bregman up to a five-year, $100MM extension prior to the season, meaning he’s under wraps through 2024.
Age and team control may play a factor as you choose between Bryant and Bregman. Regardless of which player you prefer, though, it’s obvious these are two of the premier first-rounders in recent history. They give hope to every downtrodden franchise that had a high pick Monday.
(Poll link for app users)
Who's the better building block?
-
Alex Bregman 66% (4,998)
-
Kris Bryant 34% (2,632)
Total votes: 7,630
AL West Notes: Bregman, Mariners, Chirinos
There’s no defined timetable for when Alex Bregman will return to the Astros‘ lineup, though the star third baseman tells Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link) that an MRI of his ailing right hamstring didn’t reveal anything similar to the 2016 issue that cost him a few weeks of the season. For the time being, Bregman is simply considered day to day, and there’s yet to be any indication that a trip to the injured list is a particular concern for him or the team.
Here’s more from the division…
- The Mariners‘ analytics department identified the revamped changeup of right-hander Brandon Brennan as a pitch worth taking a chance on in the Rule 5 Draft, writes Greg Johns of MLB.com, and to this point the team’s investment has paid off nicely. Brennan has been unscored upon in 8 2/3 innings with a 7-to-2 K/BB ratio and a terrific 63.2 percent ground-ball rate. Brennan, who’ll turn 28 this summer, is older than most Rule 5 selections and spoke all the more appreciatively of the opportunity in his interview with Johns. Not only does he relish any big league opportunity as a 27-year-old rookie, but Brennan received the surreal experience of making his MLB debut in the same half-inning that Ichiro Suzuki was pulled from his final game to an uproarious standing ovation in his native Japan. The Mariners will have to carry Brennan all season or else expose him to waivers and, if he clears, offer him back to the White Sox for $50K. So far, he’s given Seattle no reason to do so.
- Jake Kaplan of The Athletic takes a look at the changes Robinson Chirinos has made to his game since signing with the Astros (subscription required). Chirinos details the drills he worked on throughout Spring Training to change his setup behind the plate as well as the slight alteration to his throwing motion — made at the behest of pitching coach Brent Strom after noticing a mechanical flaw. The season is still extraordinarily young, but Chirinos has drawn slightly positive marks in pitch framing, per both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus, after ranking as one of the game’s worst in that regard for much of his career. He’s also halted two of the seven stolen-base attempts against him thus far after catching just 10 percent of thieves in 2018. Only time will tell if the changes yield quantifiable improvements, but that’ll be an interesting thread for both Astros and Rangers fans to follow over the course of the season.
Astros Extend Alex Bregman
MARCH 22: The deal has now been announced.
MARCH 21: Bregman will be paid $11MM annually from 2020-22 before earning $28.5MM in both 2023 and 2024, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). He also has a 10-team no-trade clause for the 2023-24 seasons.
MARCH 20: The deal includes a $10MM signing bonus, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). That’s unusual for a pre-arb contract; Heyman even suggests it may be unprecedented. Bregman can also boost his salary through escalators based upon MVP award finishes, the details of which are not yet known.
MARCH 19, 9:12pm: The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome clarifies (via Twitter) that the contract is technically a five-year, $100MM extension. The new contract does not override Bregman’s 2019 salary, but it does cover his three arbitration seasons and what would have been his first two free-agent seasons.
It’s a technicality but not an insignificant one; because Bregman’s 2019 contract is a separate entity from his 2020-24 contract, the extension comes with a $20MM luxury hit (the average annual value of the deal). Had it been structured as a six-year pact overriding his current salary, the deal would’ve come with a $16.66MM luxury hit.
However, signing Bregman to a six-year deal with that $16.66MM hit would’ve pushed Houston to just about $3.5MM shy of paying the luxury tax in 2019, leaving the Astros with minimal wiggle room for in-season additions on the trade market. Instead, they’re about $19.5MM shy of the $206MM threshold right now, which should leave them plenty of room to take on salary in midseason trades.
8:55pm: The Astros have agreed to terms on a six-year, $100MM contract with star third baseman Alex Bregman, reports Mark Berman of FOX 26 Houston (via Twitter). That contract covers the current season, three arbitration years and what would’ve been the first two free-agent seasons for Bregman. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal had tweeted not long before that the two sides had been discussing an extension.
Bregman, 25 at the end of the month, has rapidly ascended from No. 2 overall draft pick (2015) to one of the game’s premier players. The LSU product has improved in each MLB season, topping out with his first All-Star appearance and a fifth-place finish in American League MVP voting in 2018. Last season, he posted a brilliant .286/.394/.532 batting line with 31 homers, 51 doubles, four triples and 10 steals in a season that both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs was worth about seven wins above replacement.
The contract extension comes just weeks after Bregman voiced “disappointment” with the fact that the Astros renewed his contract for the upcoming season at $640,500. “I understand that it’s a business,” Bregman told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart at the time, “but I feel like good business would be wanting to make a player who performed at a high level on your team happy and want to feel like he wanted to be kept and feel like they wanted him to play here forever.”
Whether Bregman was referencing a desire to sign an extension or merely felt he should’ve been compensated at the record pre-arb levels attained by Mookie Betts ($950K) and Kris Bryant ($1.05MM), the point is now moot. The nine-figure extension offer emphatically makes clear that the ‘Stros view Bregman as a vital part of their future. At the same time, it also affords him the opportunity to reach the open market in advance of his age-31 campaign — enough time to perhaps lock in one more significant payday before reaching his mid-30s.
Historically speaking, Bregman’s contract is the third-largest deal ever promised to a player with between two and three years of MLB service time. Buster Posey‘s eight-year, $159MM pact tops the list for that service class, although unlike Bregman, he was a Super Two player and already eligible for arbitration when agreeing to that deal. He was also coming off a 2012 season in which he was named National League MVP, and beyond that, he had a National League Rookie of the Year Award on his mantle as well.
As for non-Super-Two players with between two and three years of service, Mike Trout‘s original six-year, $144MM contract still stands out as the high-water mark. Like Posey, he had a more impressive resume than Bregman through his first two-plus seasons before agreeing to that deal.
This marks the second extension for the Astros on what has been an apparently busy day for president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow and the rest of the front office. Houston agreed to a two-year, $17.5MM extension with reliever Ryan Pressly earlier tonight as well.
Bregman now joins 2017 American League MVP Jose Altuve as the only Astros locked up through the 2024 season. That pair will form the cornerstones of the Astros’ impressive nucleus for the next six years, and it’s still possible that others could be locked into longer-term pacts as well. Altuve, Bregman and Pressly are the only Astros players who are guaranteed any money beyond the 2020 season, and the team does have several important pieces up for free agency in the near future. Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Collin McHugh are all free agents at the end of the 2019 season, while George Springer will hit the open market after the 2020 campaign. Carlos Correa, meanwhile is arbitration-eligible through the 2021 season. No one should expect the Astros to lock up all of those players — even securing two would be an impressive feat — but the Bregman deal likely doesn’t put an end to the team’s extension efforts.
Notable Pre-Arb Salaries: Bregman, Flaherty, Hicks, Ohtani
The Rays decided over the weekend to renew the contract of reigning American League Cy Young winner Blake Snell for just $573,700, highlighting the less-than-satisfying manner in which pre-arbitration players’ salaries are determined. As we noted in that post, other similarly accomplished players have been paid quite a bit more by their respective teams. The collectively bargained system leaves full discretion with clubs to set salaries for those players that are not yet eligible for arbitration, subject only to a floor (currently $555K). A few players have landed in the $1MM range, though that is the exception rather than the rule. Approaches vary widely from team to team. Whatever one thinks about the fairness of that minimum salary level, it’s rather a bizarre system.
Here are some other notable recent pre-arb salary outcomes:
- The Astros renewed star third bagger Alex Bregman for $640,500, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. That’s a bargain rate for one of the game’s best young position players, who says he’s “disappointed” in how things turned out. Bregman explained: “I feel like good business would be wanting to make a player who performed at a high level on your team happy and want to feel like he wanted to be kept and feel like they wanted him to play here forever. I’m just disappointed it doesn’t seem like the same amount of want.” GM Jeff Luhnow defended the decision in part by pointing to the fact that it’s “one of the top ten” pre-arb salaries ever awarded. “I know it’s not satisfying because he’s a great player and no player is ever satisfied the year before they reach arbitration with the amount the club gives them,” said Luhnow. “That’s just the nature of our industry right now.”
- Over in Cardinals camp, there are a few other players who are surely less than thrilled with how things turned out. Righties Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks were each renewed, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The former was renewed at $562,100 — $10K less than the team offered him, reflecting a $10K reduction for his decision not to sign on the dotted line. Flaherty decline to criticize the team, saying that “their process is great and it makes sense,” but says “the system as a whole is not great.”
- Meanwhile, the Angels managed to reach agreement with AL Rookie of the Year recipient Shohei Ohtani, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Ohtani has over than a year less service time than Bregman but will out-earn him at $650K. The ROY hardware certainly didn’t hurt and Ohtani is unquestionably a unique case — and not just because of his two-way contributions. The Halos originally landed Ohtani — Japan’s biggest star and the most fascinating international player ever to cross the Pacific — for a bonus of just over $2.3MM since he chose to come over while still subject to collectively bargained international signing caps. Ohtani’s will be a pre-arb earner one more time in 2020 before qualifying for arbitration.
Alex Bregman Undergoes Arthroscopic Elbow Surgery
The Astros announced Friday that third baseman Alex Bregman underwent arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his right elbow earlier today. Bregman is expected to be limited at the start of Spring Training but ready for full duty by Opening Day.
Bregman, 24, made his first All-Star team in 2018 and finished fifth in American League MVP voting after hitting .286/.394/.532 with 31 home runs in 705 plate appearances for the Astros. The former No. 2 overall draft pick walked more often (96 times) than he struck out (85) — a rare and remarkable feat in today’s game.
In the event of an unexpected setback in Bregman’s recovery, the Astros do have Tyler White as an option to fill in at the hot corner. The 28-year-old White has more than 2000 innings of minor league experience at third base, so while he’s appeared in just three games there at the MLB level, the ‘Stros would presumably feel comfortable playing him there on a short-term basis. First baseman Yuli Gurriel is no stranger to third base, either.
Still, with Marwin Gonzalez hitting free agency and the recent trade of J.D. Davis to the Mets, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see the Astros add a veteran capable of playing third base on a minor league contract in the coming weeks, just to create a bit of additional depth at the position.
Heyman’s Latest: Hamels, Smoak, Nunez, Bregman, Padres
The Cubs seem likely to pick up left-hander Cole Hamels‘ $20MM option for 2019, Jon Heyman of Fancred writes. The club could instead buy out Hamels for $6MM, a sum his previous team – the Rangers – would cover, though that would be a surprise in the wake of his second-half performance. After the Cubs acquired Hamels in late July, he pitched to a 2.36 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over 76 1/3 innings. Thanks in part to Hamels’ excellent results over the final couple months of the season, Cubs president Theo Epstein recently called the 34-year-old a “breath of fresh air.”
Here’s more from Heyman’s latest column:
- Surprisingly, despite his quality production from 2017-18 and his reasonable price tag for next season, the Blue Jays aren’t certain to exercise first baseman Justin Smoak‘s option, according to Heyman. Toronto must decide whether to bring back Smoak for $8MM or cut him loose and pay $250K. But if the team’s uninterested in retaining Smoak, perhaps it’ll pick up the soon-to-be 32-year-old’s option and shop him to first base needy-clubs. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently took a look at several teams that could pursue a deal for the switch-hitting Smoak, who slashed .242/.350/.457 (121 wRC+) with 25 home runs in 594 PA this year.
- Red Sox infielder Eduardo Nunez is “likely” to exercise his $5MM player option, per Heyman. Nunez could otherwise opt out and receive $2MM, but he’d be doing so on the heels of a rough campaign (heroics in Game 1 of the World Series notwithstanding). The 31-year-old hit a meek .265/.289/.388 (78 wRC+) in 502 regular-season plate appearances and accounted for minus-0.4 fWAR – the sixth-worst mark among those who totaled at least 500 PA. Notably, Nunez had a much better campaign in 2017, but he was still unable to secure a large guarantee as a free agent last winter.
- Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud is a non-tender candidate, Heyman relays. The oft-injured d’Arnaud is projected to earn $3.7MM in 2019, his last year of arbitration, but the Mets could deem that too pricey in the wake of another injury-shortened season. D’Arnaud, 29, suffered a partial UCL tear in early April, limiting him to four games. With d’Arnaud unavailable, the Mets ended up relying on Devin Mesoraco and Kevin Plawecki behind the plate. There’s also uncertainty with Mesoraco heading into the offseason, given that he’s a pending free agent.
- Astros superstar Alex Bregman is among those sticking with agent Brodie Scoffield, who recently left Legacy to start Tidal Sports Group, Heyman writes. The 24-year-old third baseman is coming off a tremendous season in which he hit .284/394/.532 (157 wRC+) with 31 home runs, more walks (96) than strikeouts (85) and 7.6 fWAR across 705 trips to the plate. Bregman’s in line to play his final pre-arb season in 2019.
- Some manager-needy teams recently requested interviews with Padres executive Moises Alou, but the 52-year-old spurned those overtures, Heyman reports. Alou, a big league outfielder from 1990-2008, joined San Diego’s front office in 2015. He doesn’t have any managerial experience, though it does run in his family. His father, Felipe Alou, managed the Expos (1992-2001) and Giants (2003-06) to a combined 1,033-1,021 record, and he took home NL Manager of the Year honors during the strike-shortened ’94 season.
NL West Notes: Dozier, Belt, Diamondbacks, Black
Brian Dozier, mired in a dreadful slump after a hot first week with the Dodgers, spoke to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register about those struggles. Dozier played through a bone bruise in his knee earlier this season, and while he said the knee “feels great” now, he acknowledged that he developed some bad habits at the plate while trying to compensate for it at the time. The 31-year-old Dozier added that he doesn’t believe playing primarily in a platoon capacity has had an adverse impact on him. (The Dodgers’ constant lineup fluctuations based on matchups has been a source of frustration for many of their fans.) Dozier will be a free agent at season’s end, but the .218/.306/.391 slash he’s carrying isn’t likely to do him any favors — particularly when he’ll be heading into his age-32 season next year.
More from the division…
- Brandon Belt underwent an MRI on his ailing knee, but the Giants aren’t planning to shut him down for the remainder of the season, tweets Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Belt is considered day-to-day for the time being, but he’ll start more games before season’s end. It’s been a disastrous summer for Belt — and, really, for most of the Giants’ offense — as his production has cratered after soaring to career-best levels in the season’s first half. Belt, 30, posted a ridiculous .307/.403/.547 batting line through June 1 before landing on the disabled list due to a bout of appendicitis. He never seemed to recover his footing after that, as he’s floundered at a miserable .203/.283/.290 pace since returning. Belt also missed a bit more than two weeks due to a hyperextended knee in late July and early August.
- Clay Buchholz, whose season ended yesterday due to a flexor mass strain, tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he’d love to return to the Diamondbacks, but there have yet to be any discussions about a new contract between the two sides. Piecoro also chatted with Astros third baseman Alex Bregman, whom the Diamondbacks passed over in favor of Dansby Swanson back in the 2015 Draft. Bregman said he was thrilled to go to the Astros with the No. 2 overall pick but admitted that part of him was also “pissed,” because he’d hoped to be the top overall selection in the draft. He also relayed a story from the 2012 draft, when Arizona showed interest in him as a late first-rounder but instead drafted catcher Stryker Trahan. Arizona called him to see if he’d sign as a second-rounder, but Bregman informed the team he planned on attending college at Louisiana State University.
- In a fun Sunday-morning read, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post walks through a typical day in the life of Rockies manager Bud Black during the team’s pennant race — covering everything from an early radio appearance to lineup planning, pre-game media sessions, in-game decisions and post-game work and rituals. Saunders also chats with catcher Chris Iannetta and lefty Kyle Freeland about Black’s managerial style and his teaching methods. “Buddy has a laid-back style, but even though it’s laid back, I wouldn’t say it’s relaxed,” says Iannetta of Black — his fifth big league manager. “…I think it’s the sign of a good manager when he knows when to be hands-on and when to take his hands off.” It’s obviously an extra-appealing read for Rox fans, though fans of any club will still appreciate the detailed look at the day-to-day operations of a big league skipper.
Trade/FA Rumors: Bregman, Solarte, Dodgers, Jays, Tribe, Holland
It’s possible the Astros will add an ace-caliber pitcher via trade this offseason, but it’s not going to come at the expense of 22-year-old infielder Alex Bregman. Astros executives are telling teams that there’s “no chance” Bregman will go anywhere, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider required and recommended). That’s hardly a surprise, as Bregman is controllable through the 2022 season and has been resoundingly successful since the Astros took him second overall in the 2015 draft. After racing through the minors, Bregman thrived in his first taste of big league action this past season and now looks like the Astros’ long-term solution at third base.
More rumors from around the majors:
- The Padres are “aggressively shopping” infielder Yangervis Solarte, and the NL West rival Dodgers are among the teams discussing him with San Diego, relays FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link). The Dodgers have openings at both second and third base, two places Solarte has seen action. Most of Solarte’s work has come at the hot corner, where the expectation is the Dodgers will re-sign Justin Turner.
- The Blue Jays are “in talks” with free agent utilityman Steve Pearce, tweets Olney. Toronto first showed interest in Pearce last month. With Kendrys Morales and Justin Smoak already in the fold, signing Pearce would give the Jays another first base/designated hitter type and perhaps signal the end of the Edwin Encarnacion era.
- The Indians made runs at two notable free agent DH/outfield types in now-Astro Carlos Beltran and the newest Yankee, Matt Holliday, according to Rosenthal and Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links). Cleveland continues to look at available “corner bats,” Rosenthal adds. Several free agent first basemen/DHs are reportedly on their radar.
- Free agent reliever Greg Holland is “a popular guy” at the winter meetings, a major league source told Rob Bradford of WEEI. Holland was a dominant late-game option with the Royals over the first several years of his career, but October 2015 Tommy John surgery prevented him from pitching last season. He’s now ready to return for his age-31 campaign, and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes expects him to land a two-year, $18MM deal.
Quick Hits: Britton, Harper, Ramos, Bregman, McCullers, Rasmus, Abad
Orioles closer Zach Britton has turned in a season to remember, and it’s not all that surprising given his recent excellence. Still, it wasn’t long ago that such a showing seemed highly improbable, as Danny Knobler of Bleacher Report writes. Britton was no lock to make the O’s roster out of camp in 2014, but the refinement of his unbelievable power sinker that year has turned the southpaw into arguably the game’s most dominant reliever. Knobler takes an interesting look at Britton’s transformation as a pitcher, as well as his earlier path toward the majors.
Here are a few more stray notes from around the game:
- Nationals star Bryce Harper suffered a thumb injury that caused some concern, but manager Dusty Baker said tonight that X-rays were negative, as Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com reports (Twitter links). Washington is suddenly facing a variety of significant health concerns as it readies for the NLDS, though at least in Harper’s case the prognosis seems promising. Catcher Wilson Ramos is a new concern after leaving tonight’s game following a play at the plate. He’s due for an MRI tomorrow, the results of which could have huge implications for both the team and his coming run through free agency.
- Burgeoning Astros infielder Alex Bregman could be back sooner than expected after a “leap forward” in his recovery from a hamstring strain, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports. Indeed, he could appear as soon as this week. While the timetable isn’t quite as promising for righty Lance McCullers Jr., he might be ready to go for the postseason if Houston can sneak in. Meanwhile, there’s said to be little chance that outfielder Colby Rasmus will return to uniform before qualifying for free agency.
- It’s possible that Red Sox deadline addition Fernando Abad won’t even crack the team’s postseason roster, as Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald reports. The veteran southpaw has largely been quite good against opposing lefties since coming to Boston, but he has still coughed nine earned runs with a dozen strikeouts and eight walks in his 12 2/3 innings of work. Though nothing has been decided, manager John Farrell did acknowledge that the club is assessing both Abad and rookie lefty Robby Scott for the postseason pen. Scott, 27, has just six MLB appearances on his ledger, though he has yet to allow a run.
Astros Injury Updates: Keuchel, Bregman, McCullers
It seems rather unlikely that the Astros will receive further contributions in 2016 from lefty Dallas Keuchel or infielder Alex Bregman, according to updates from GM Jeff Luhnow, via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter links). There’s at least some positive momentum, though, for righty Lance McCullers Jr., who Luhnow says will throw off of a mound in the coming days, as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle tweets.
Keuchel, who is dealing with shoulder inflammation, wouldn’t be available unless the team is able to qualify for and “go pretty deep” in the postseason, per Luhnow. He has yet to begin throwing at this time, Kaplan tweets, so there’s obviously a long way to go. The 28-year-old last appeared on August 27th, so he’d certainly need to fully build back his arm strength even if the inflammation dies down.
The timeline isn’t much more optimistic for Bregman, whose hamstring injury is significant enough that it would typically require a four to six week layoff. While Luhnow suggests that it’s possible to push a recovery in this situation, even an aggressive timetable would seemingly leave the talented youngster unavailable until early October.
McCullers, meanwhile, has been out for much longer than the other two players with elbow issues. News on his progress has been limited since his last appearance on August 2nd. Presumably, the ‘Stros will continue to exercise caution with the prized 22-year-old. But it’s at least promising to hear that he is now in a position to begin working back toward mound work.
What’s clear is that Houston won’t receive any contributions from this key trio of players down the stretch. With a three-game gap between the club and a Wild Card spot entering today’s action, it’ll take a huge showing over the next two weeks just to gain a chance at the playoffs. If the Astros can somehow sneak in — and escape the one-game Wild Card play-in game — it’ll be interesting to see if any of the three are ready for activation for a full postseason series.