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Fallout Notes After Gerrit Cole Signing: Blue Jays, Angels, Pettitte, Dodgers, Bumgarner

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Much will come to light in the coming days now that the Yankees have officially given Gerrit Cole the largest deal in league history for a pitcher – but even now, mere hours from the revelation, the news is starting to sink in. The rest of the pitching market could unstick rather quickly, and the Blue Jays are having to factor in their new reality of having to face Cole four or five times a year for the next decade, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca. Of course, what better way for Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and friends to push themselves to reach their massive potentials than by facing off with the best of the best. Of greater concern for Toronto is who will take the mound on their side in 2020. With the biggest names now off the board, interest will pick up for the next tier of free agent starters, guys like Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel, in whom Toronto has shown interest. Those who missed out on Cole may up the ante for the next round, however, putting the Blue Jays’ realistic options more in the field of Tanner Roark, Rick Porcello, or Wade Miley. They could even lend a helping hand to the Yankees by taking back J.A. Happ if a prospect(s) came along with him. Let’s see what else folks are saying here in the wee hours of life in our bleak new post-Cole-sweepstakes reality…

  • The winners and losers of Cole’s mega contract are fairly obvious, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal makes the rounds anyway, starting with the Yankees – the biggest winners here (besides Cole and maybe Scott Boras) for finally reeling in their “white whale.” The Angels come away from the Cole saga disappointed, but it’s not all bad for the Halos. They have more need than could have been filled by Cole alone. As tantalizing a talent Cole is, they may be better off spreading their money around. Now that the Giants took Zack Cozart’s deal off their hands, they might have enough resources to buy a supporting cast for Mike Trout.
  • It’s easy to view the Yankees’ winning bid as a harkening back to the days of New York as the evil empire, but the reality is actually much more frightening, per The Athletic’s Marc Carig. He writes, “The Yankees are well-run, well-heeled and well-schooled in the art of reeling in the big fish.” True enough: this was no impulsive spending spree. The Yankees, like much of the league, have curbed their shopping addictions and learned to spend wisely. As a result, they should enter 2020 as favorites to win the American League. Oddly, for years it was expected that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s free agency would wake the dormant goliaths from their winter slumber, but it turned out to be Cole who not only made the notoriously judicious Andrew Friedman plead his case for the Dodgers, but who prompted the Yankees to shake off the rust and woo their western rival’s star player like the old days.
  • Speaking of: Andy Pettitte played a role in evangelizing on behalf of New York’s lifestyle benefits. He encouraged Cole about playing in New York as a benefit for his peace of mind, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Pettitte’s point was that Cole could focus himself on the task of winning titles, as the playoffs should be an annual guarantee (or at least strong possibility). Of course, the Dodgers and Astros could have made the same argument about their squads.
  • The Dodgers, it’s worth noting, made a real push for Cole. Among 324 million other reasons, however, Cole came away from his meeting with New York impressed with new pitching coach Matt Blake, who appealed to Cole’s interest in the intellectual side of the game, noted Carig. Of course, Cole also grew up a Yankees fan, which might have tipped the scale in the Yankees’ favor in a way that the Dodgers simply couldn’t answer. Now that the dust has settled, the Dodgers are moving on to the goal of convincing Madison Bumgarner to make the heel turn and join an already strong rotation in Chavez Ravine, tweets Rosenthal.

Winter Meetings Preview: The Dodgers’ Infield

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The Los Angeles Dodgers have unsurprisingly been asked about the availability of Gavin Lux, the Dodgers’ minor league player of the year for 2019. Thus far, understandably, suitors have been turned away, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman. Granted, this isn’t shocking news in and of itself, but it is telling of the Dodgers’ mindset on the eve of the winter meetings.

Lux, 22, is coming off a monster season that saw him hulk out for a .347/.421/.607 line in 113 games across Double-A and Triple-A (which included a monstrous-even-for-the-PCL .719 SLG and 188 wRC+ in 49 games in Triple-A). He didn’t disappoint in a cup of coffee with the big league club, holding his own at .240/.305/.400 in 23 games of uneven playing time. He proved capable enough to make the playoff roster and earn the start in games 2 and 4 in the NLDS versus the Nationals.

It’s not surprising that the Dodgers would make a point to hang onto the young star, but doing so doesn’t exactly jibe with their rumored interest in free agent Anthony Rendon. Justin Turner has made clear his openness to moving around the diamond, and while it’s certainly nice to be reminded that chivalry is not yet dead, it’s not obvious where Turner would move if the Dodgers are indeed intent on making Lux a part of their core moving forward.

A Corey Seager trade could open a spot with Lux taking over at short, Max Muncy taking full-time duties at second and Turner moving to first. Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, and NL MVP Cody Bellinger are capable of filling in around the infield as needed. But as good as Rendon is, Seager himself was a 4.0 bWAR player in 2019, and it would seem that the Seager/Lux/Muncy/Bellinger/Taylor/Hernandez/Turner septet already provides the perfect amount of wholesale injury coverage and star power. Swapping in Rendon for Seager cuts their shortstop options by one, and while they’d still probably be two injuries away from any real panic, it’s still a little hard to fathom why swapping in Rendon and his presumably monstrous contract makes sense – unless the goal is simply to keep the development train moving by restocking the lower levels via trade.

They could certainly sign Rendon – or Josh Donaldson, for that matter – and shop one of their other infielders, but there’s not a natural fit on that front either. Turner and Muncy have been central figures to the culture and success of the Dodgers in recent seasons, and it’s frankly jarring to imagine either one suiting up elsewhere. Moving Taylor or Hernandez neither frees up at-bats nor brings back a significant prospect haul.

The logical conclusion is that the Dodgers’ interest in Rendon is probably more smoke than fire. President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman has made a point of avoiding lavish and reactionary spending, and a Rendon signing would appear to qualify as both. Luxury tax estimates (per Roster Resource) peg the Dodgers at around $176MM for the upcoming season, which would make it difficult to fit Rendon under the tax line. Their longer-term financial picture is more flexible, however, with only ~$93MM on the books for 2021 and ~$33MM the year after.

The Dodgers did suffer a particularly tough playoff defeat in 2019, and after seven years of making the playoffs and coming home without a ring, it’s fair to wonder if the disciplined roster building that’s become the brand of these Los Angeles Dodgers might finally break under the strain of those playoff defeats. Andrew Friedman is also one of the more creative thinkers in the game and if there’s a way to make this work, he’s sure to find it. But it’s also not hard to see why they’d keep on keeping on with business as usual.

Dodgers Extend Andrew Friedman

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The Dodgers have signed president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman to a contract extension, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. Terms of the deal are unknown, but it figures to be a large payday for Friedman, whose previous deal was worth a reported $35MM over five years. At the time, that was a record-setting pact for a baseball executive.

Locking up Friedman was a long-expected move for Los Angeles, which has been overwhelmingly successful since it pried him from Tampa Bay after the 2014 season. While the Dodgers’ long-running championship drought has continued since then, they have taken the NL West in each season during Friedman’s reign and won two pennants.

Friedman was at the helm when the Dodgers hired Dave Roberts as their manager entering 2016, though some fans of the team haven’t been enamored of that move. Nevertheless, Roberts has a fan in Friedman, who stuck by the skipper after the eventual title-winning Nationals upset the club in the first round of the playoffs this fall.

Roberts has been in charge of an enviable group of talent supplied in part by Friedman, who has acquired several stars during his run in LA. Max Muncy was a waiver claim who has turned into a standout, while the valuable Chris Taylor came over in an under-the-radar trade with the Mariners in 2016. Meantime, newly named NL MVP Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Alex Verdugo, Julio Urias and Ross Stripling represent inherited players who have developed well in the Friedman era, and the team has drafted legitimate major leaguers such as Walker Buehler, Will Smith and Tony Gonsolin during his run. It also owns one of the majors’ premier farm systems, a group headlined by Friedman draft picks in Gavin Lux (first round, 2016) and Dustin May (third round, ’16).

Friedman has excelled at loading the ultra-rich Dodgers with cheap talent, but after coming over from a low-budget team, he has largely shied away from huge contracts. Re-signing longtime ace Clayton Kershaw (three years, $93MM), closer Kenley Jansen (five years, $80MM) and and third baseman Justin Turner (four years, $64MM) stand as the largest commitments the team has doled out under Friedman. Kershaw and Turner remain highly valuable, though Jansen has fallen off over the past couple seasons. Furthermore, free-agent signing A.J. Pollock – whom the Dodgers guaranteed four years and $60MM last winter – disappointed in his first season with the club. On the other hand, Japanese righty Kenta Maeda has delivered since the Dodgers inked him to an eight-year, $25MM guarantee in advance of the 2016 campaign.

The Dodgers have the financial might to pull off more headline-grabbing signings before next season, but it remains to be seen whether Friedman will take that route. Their most notable acquisitions may end up coming via trade, as Friedman has aggressively tried to upgrade his roster by swinging deals for the likes of Manny Machado, Yu Darvish, Yasmani Grandal and Enrique Hernandez in the past.

Regardless of how Friedman attempts to improve the Dodgers this offseason, they appear to be in good hands with him at the controls. No matter what happens in the coming months, they’ll be the clear-cut favorites to enter 2020 as NL West favorites and a team on the short list of predicted World Series winners. As such, it’s no surprise the Dodgers decided to keep Friedman under wraps going forward.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL West Notes: Friedman, Giants, Oracle Park, Padres

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As the Padres unveil some sharp new uniforms, let’s look at some news from around the NL West…

  • It has been close to a month since Andrew Friedman said he was close to finalizing a contract extension to remain as the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, though there hasn’t since been any word about a deal.  There doesn’t appear to be any real reason for concern, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets, as the two sides are “still dotting I’s and crossing T’s” on the new contract.  Friedman has also been battling the flu for the past week.
  • Construction has begun on Oracle Park’s new bullpens, which will result in a slightly moved-in portion of the outfield fence, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes.  Relievers for both the Giants and visiting clubs will no longer have to warm up in foul territory, as the new bullpens will be located behind the center field and right-center field fences.  As a result, the area of fence that runs across center field into the “Triples Alley” triangle will be lowered by about a foot and moved four-to-six feet closer to home plate.  The apex of the triangle will also be a bit shorter to home plate than its current 421-foot distance.
  • Also from Schulman (Twitter links), he reports that as of Friday night, the Giants still hadn’t made a decision in their managerial search, though one should be coming relatively soon.  Astros bench coach Joe Espada, Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro and former Phillies manager Gabe Kapler are reportedly the final three candidates in the running.
  • The Padres had some interest in Rangers outfielder Nomar Mazara last summer, so Dennis Lin and Jamey Newberg of the Athletic (subscription required) tried to figure out a Mazara trade package that could help both clubs, in a lengthy exploration of how San Diego and Texas match up as trade partners.  Some obvious links exist between the two franchises — Padres GM A.J. Preller and new manager Jayce Tingler both came to San Diego from the Texas organization, giving the Friars a lot of familiarity with Rangers players on both the MLB and minor league rosters.  Lin and Newberg settle on a scenario that would see Mazara and right-hander Jonathan Hernandez go to the Rangers for Joey Lucchesi and catching prospect Blake Hunt.

Andrew Friedman Expects To Finalize New Contract With Dodgers Soon

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Dodgers president of baseball operation Andrew Friedman is unsigned for the 2020 season, but he said in today’s year-end press conference that he expects to wrap up a new contract with the team within the next few days (Twitter links via Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times). Friedman also confirmed that Dave Roberts will return as the team’s manager in 2020, as Castillo originally reported late last week.

Friedman, 42, jumped from his role as the Rays’ executive vice president and general manager to the Dodgers back in 2014, agreeing to a reported five-year, $35MM contract that at the time was the largest deal ever inked by a baseball executive. He aggressively reshaped the Dodgers, trading away the likes of Matt Kemp, Dee Gordon and Dan Haren in his first offseason at the helm (netting Yasmani Grandal, Enrique Hernandez and others, including Andrew Heaney, whom he immediately traded to the Angels for Howie Kendrick).

Friedman’s front-office group has been involved in some of the most complex trades in recent history, including not only the Kemp trade but the three-team, 13-player swap with the Braves and Marlins that centered around Hector Olivera, Alex Wood, Mat Latos and the remainder of Bronson Arroyo’s dead-money contract. Friedman even reacquired Kemp from the Braves in yet another financially motivated swap and then traded Kemp to the Reds this past offseason in a further example of juggling funds to remain south of the luxury tax line.

The Dodgers’ baseball operations group has, in some ways, become a pipeline for other organizations throughout the league. Former GM Farhan Zaidi was named Giants president of baseball operations last winter, while former vice president Alex Anthopoulos, who landed with the Dodgers after leaving the Blue Jays, became general manager of the Braves. Gabe Kapler served as the Dodgers’ director of player development before being hired as the Phillies’ manager, and one of Kapler’s top lieutenants, Jeremy Zoll, was hired away by the Twins to serve as their director of minor league operations.

On the field, Friedman’s penchant for aggressive, creative trades and his manipulation of MLB’s waiver/DFA process and shortened injured list minimum have helped the Dodgers to cultivate extraordinary levels of depth on their 40-man roster. That’s been a major advantage for the Dodgers, who have averaged 97 wins and taken home the NL West division title in all five of Friedman’s seasons atop the front office infrastructure. It has not, however, manifested in the form of an increasingly elusive World Series championship. The Dodgers appeared in the World Series in both 2017 and 2018 in addition to an NLCS berth in 2016, but they’ve yet to break through that final plane.

That said, the Dodgers are well-positioned for long-term success. Much of the team’s young talent, including Walker Buehler and Cody Bellinger, is under club control for the foreseeable future. Top prospects Will Smith, Alex Verdugo, Gavin Lux, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin all reached the Majors in 2019, giving a glimpse at what the future may hold. The ample resources provided by ownership, paired with the apparent annual tradition of dropping some salary and luxury hits on the trade market, should give Friedman’s Dodgers room to be active in free agency. The Dodgers certainly have needs to address as they look to return to a third World Series in four years, but it doesn’t sound as though there are any plans to change who’ll have final say over how those needs are addressed.

NL West Notes: Padres, Ahmed, Friedman, Tapia, Wallach

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The Padres are expected have a busy offseason as the team tries to figure out the proper mixture for a contender.  Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune breaks down the Padres position-by-position as they look ahead to 2020, and the common refrain from many inside the organization is that perhaps only seven players (Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Chris Paddack, Eric Hosmer, Garrett Richards, Andres Munoz, and Kirby Yates) look like sure bets to be with the organization next season.  Everyone else, even from seeming building blocks like Dinelson Lamet or Hunter Renfroe, could potentially be traded for more proven talents.

“They have roster problems. They have to move people,” one rival executive tells Acee, which gets to the heart of the challenge facing the Padres.  The team still doesn’t totally know what they have in some players who have been inconsistent at the Major League level, yet a wave of prospects coming up and the organization increasingly impatient for a winning season, some tough choices may have to be made about who stays and who becomes a trade chip.

Some items from around the NL West…

  • Nick Ahmed enjoys playing for the Diamondbacks, but when it comes to the possibility of a contract extension, the shortstop tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that “I want to sign a fair deal. I’ve played long enough to realize that. I want to be able to take advantage of what I’ve got to this point in my career.”  A September slump has dropped Ahmed’s slash line to .255/.318/.442 over 621 PA this season, though his 93 wRC+ still represents the best offensive production of his six-year career, and his glovework has continued to be excellent.  Ahmed has one year of arbitration remaining before he hits free agency in the 2020-21 offseason, and he’ll be 31 on Opening Day 2021.  It makes for something of a tricky extension case, as Piecoro notes, since there aren’t many shortstop comps that would serve as a model for a potential multi-year contract.  There also hasn’t been any word from the D’Backs if they’d be interested in extending Ahmed, though Piecoro observes that GM Mike Hazen “does not speculate on such topics.”
  • There hasn’t yet been word about Andrew Friedman’s status with the Dodgers, as the president of baseball operations will reach the end of his contract when the Dodgers’ season ends.  The involved parties didn’t provide any details about negotiations, though there seems to be general optimism that a deal will be reached, Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times writes.  Friedman said he wants to return, while team president Stan Kasten said he is “pretty confident” Friedman will be back, and “expect him to be here for a long time.”  Manager Dave Roberts also feels Friedman will remain in L.A., saying “everything I hear is [a new contract] is imminent, that it will get done.”
  • Raimel Tapia projects as an everyday left fielder for the Rockies in 2020, Nick Groke of the Athletic (subscription required) writes, which should help a player who seemed to get better with more regular playing time this season.  As a highly-regarded prospect coming out of Colorado’s farm system, Tapia received only 239 MLB plate appearances from 2016-18 before getting more of an extended look this season.  While Tapia has only a .276/.310/.418 slash line (74 wRC+) over 442 PA, he has also battled injuries and didn’t get many consistent starts until late July, Groke noted.  Sticking with Tapia as the mostly everyday left fielder would reduce Ian Desmond to a backup role, though the highly-paid veteran hasn’t done enough to merit more at-bats over three disappointing years in Colorado.  There’s also the possibility, however, that the Rockies could trade Tapia in the offseason to address other roster needs.
  • Tim Wallach is leaving his job as the Marlins’ bench coach to be closer to his family in California, though one rival executive tells Ken Rosenthal (in his latest FOX Sports video) that Wallach could be a possible candidate for the Padres’ managerial opening.  It wouldn’t be the first time that Wallach has been linked to San Diego, as he interviewed for the last managerial vacancy before the club went with Andy Green.  Wallach has over 12 years of MLB coaching experience and has also managed at the Triple-A level in the Dodgers’ organization, though he hasn’t been a big league skipper.  In the wake of Green’s firing, Rosenthal wonders if the Padres could prefer someone with Major League managing experience rather hire than another first-timer.

Stan Kasten: “I Am Completely Certain” Andrew Friedman Returns To Dodgers In 2020

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The contract status of Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has led to some speculation about the executive’s future in Los Angeles, though team president Stan Kasten left little doubt that he expects Friedman to stay with the team.  When asked by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register if Friedman would continue to run the team’s front office in 2020, Kasten said “I am completely certain of that, yes.”

More details weren’t forthcoming, as Kasten cited team policy against discussing executive contracts.  Friedman has also declined to talk about the impending end of the original five-year deal he signed with the team in October 2014.

Despite the lack of public knowledge about any negotiations, as Plunkett put it, “Kasten sounds like a man who knows a contract extension will be negotiated and announced soon enough.”  In fact, it wouldn’t even be surprising if a new deal has already been reached (or at least mostly worked out), and the club is simply waiting until the end of the season to hold a press conference.  Some teams don’t even publicize front office extensions whatsoever, though given the high-profile nature of the expiration of Friedman’s deal, one would expect some type of formal announcement.

Under Friedman, the Dodgers have won five consecutive NL West titles, winning no fewer than 91 games in each of those seasons.  The club has advanced to the World Series in each of the last two years, and while the championship remains elusive, the Dodgers remain one of the heavy favorites to finally capture the Commissioner’s Trophy this fall.

While Los Angeles was already on a run of success before Friedman’s arrival, he has continued the organization’s calling card of drafting and developing homegrown stars — Walker Buehler, Will D. Smith and Gavin Lux were all drafted during Friedman’s time with the team and are already contributing to the current roster.  Friedman’s front office has also shown a penchant for finding unheralded players (such as Max Muncy and Chris Taylor) who have broken out as regulars in L.A.

These factors and a general reluctance to overbid on free agent talent has caused the Dodgers’ payroll to drop from record highs at the start of Friedman’s tenure to a 2018 payroll that got the team back under the luxury tax threshold.  The Dodgers are still among the league’s biggest spenders and the club hasn’t been hesitant to re-sign key players (i.e. Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner) to hefty contracts, though Friedman has brought much greater efficiency to how the team allocates its many resources.

If Friedman did have a desire for a change of scenery, he would immediately garner a lot of interest from around baseball, even from teams who already have a GM or baseball ops president but are looking to make an upgrade.  The Red Sox are the only team with an open GM position, and they’d stand out as a natural suitor, as they would undoubtedly be keen to see if Friedman could replicate his success in keeping another big-market team in contention while trimming payroll.

Quick Hits: Pujols, Dodgers, Haniger, Dipoto, Bichette

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On July 31, 2000, the Padres and Cardinals swung a trade deadline deal that sent Heathcliff Slocumb and prospect Ben Johnson to San Diego in exchange for catcher Carlos Hernandez and minor league utilityman Nate Tebbs.  The swap is little more than a footnote in team history, though it could’ve been a far more legendary trade had Johnson been replaced with another prospect who was on the Padres’ radar — Albert Pujols.  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch details the intriguing history of that would-be deal, and how the Cardinals front office had to make a decision between including Pujols (a famously unheralded 13th-round pick in the 1999 draft) or Johnson, a much more highly-touted fourth-rounder from that same draft.  Pujols showed so much promise in his early pro career, however, that the team ultimately decided to move Johnson and spend more time evaluating a potential hidden gem.  “I really didn’t want to give up Ben, either, but that’s why you always have your top guys scout your own system,” said Walt Jocketty, then the Cardinals’ general manager.  “You have to know your own, like Pujols. There was no way we could trade him. No way, just based on what our guys had seen in a short period of time. They said, ‘I think he’s going to be something special – or has a chance to be.’ When I saw it myself, it was obvious.”

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

  • Even with Rich Hill on the IL for an undetermined period of time, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman isn’t planning to make starting pitching a particular focus at the trade deadline.  “I don’t see it being an area where we spend a lot of energy,” Friedman told reporters, including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “Could that change? Of course. But I don’t expect it right now. We don’t expect it to be an area of need.”  In fact, Friedman didn’t think his team had any obvious weak spots, which perhaps isn’t a surprise given the Dodgers’ league-best 54-25 record.  Instead, the front office will look out for “impact players,” since such additions are “what moves the needle in October.”
  • In an interview on “The Front Office” on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (audio link), Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto reiterated that his trade deadline efforts will be directed towards moving veteran players.  Younger and more controllable members of the Seattle roster are less likely to be moved, since they are part of what Dipoto hopes “is a very quick turnaround” within 12-18 months.  “Some of the guys that we do have here that attract the most trade attention, particularly guys like Mitch Haniger, they’re critical to our growth.  So at some point, you do have to build around something,” Dipoto said.
  • With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio now in the majors, speculation is swirling in Toronto about when Bo Bichette could make his Blue Jays debut.  A consensus top-12 prospect in the sport prior to the season, Bichette has a .256/.316/.453 slash line and three homers over 96 Triple-A plate appearances in 2019, while missing over six weeks due to a fractured hand.  As a result, Jays GM Ross Atkins told Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith that Bichette still needs a bit more seasoning in his first stint at the Triple-A level.  “We’d really like to see some time in triple-A and have him get his legs under him and have a good strong foundation before we have that discussion [about a promotion],” Atkins said.  For comparison’s sake, Nicholson-Smith notes that Biggio had 174 PA and Guerrero 162 PA for Triple-A Buffalo before getting the call to the Show.

MLBTR Poll: Have Teams Become Too Conservative In Free Agency?

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As we approach February of a second straight long-gestating free agent winter, the top two free agents remain curiously unsigned. Rather than drive a bidding war, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s concurrent free agencies have snailed along with only the White Sox and Phillies as definitive suitors. More so than usual, there is a growing sense of discord between the owners and players, steering these economically-opposed-but-conjoined forces towards a potentially destructive labor negotiation in 2021, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.

Teams at both ends of the competitive spectrum are contributing to this contentious ecosystem. At one end, bottom feeders like the Orioles, Marlins, and Blue Jays are realizing the long odds of winning their divisions and choosing the judicious (and totally understandable) approach to team building, largely abstaining from free agency. At the same time, there are more than a few teams with wide-open competitive windows who nonetheless remain passive in free agency, citing financial limitations or a need for future flexibility. The competitive balance tax, intended as a punitive fee to help balance the league, has instead become a scapegoat for large market teams to avoid significant free agent spending. Public opinion lands on both sides of the fence, with owners painted as evolving at best and collusive at worst, while the players are viewed, alternatively, as a whiny group of greedy millionaires or a disenfranchised labor force facing an unemployment crisis.

Receiving the brunt of the criticism at present is the Dodgers, back-to-back National League champions whom many expected to make a play for Harper. Despite their reputation as big spenders, however, it’s been quite some time since the Dodgers played the part of spendthrift, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. When they hired former Rays GM Andrew Friedman before the 2015 season, there was excitement over what Friedman could do when given the reins to the Los Angeles machine. What has conspired instead brings to light a whole new question: how much revenue can the Dodgers clear under Friedman’s watchful spending? In theory, they’ve stuck a perfect balance between large market spending and small market creativity, but the reaction hasn’t been quite so laudatory.

For example, in staying true to his ever-creative roster management, Friedman shipped the erratic trio of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Alex Wood to the attraction-starved Reds for a pair of promising prospects and the remains of Homer Bailey, whom they released. We asked MLBTR readers for your opinion, and 45% thought the Reds won the deal against only 18% who pegged the Dodgers as the winner. There was another 24% who thought the trade was a win-win, but it was an overall underwhelming reaction to a move the Dodgers likely view as a creative means to acquire future assets in return for volatile performers who proffered no future value to the club beyond 2019.

The above trade, combined with their complete lack of interest in Harper and Machado gives the impression of a team disinclined towards large payroll expenditures. Accurate or not, the optics have born itself out in the public reaction – so long as Harper and Machado remain on the market, the cries for ownership to open up their wallets and “do whatever it takes to win” will not cease. And yet, the “throw money at it” approach to problem solving, long en vogue among sports franchise front offices, has gone decidedly out of style.

When pressed about the their lack of interest in Harper, Dodgers president Stan Kasten rejected any idea of frugality on the Dodgers’ part, per Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times. Kasten repeatedly cites attendance numbers to rebuke the idea of fan discontent while also railing against the public invention of false narratives. While that does sound an awful lot like another billionaire using the “fake news” moniker as blanket refutation of public sentiment, it’s worth considering his perspective. On the one hand, the Dodgers are being targeted here not because they’ve made poor decisions, necessarily, but because their market, the current competitive landscape, and traditional expectations of free agency peg them as one of the likeliest overspenders. That they aren’t taking the bait and competing literally at all costs shouldn’t necessarily make them the poster team for the current lack of spending. They did, after all, make the largest cash commitment to a position player thus far this winter.

And yet, with those sky high attendance numbers in tow, it’s certainly possible that the Dodgers are both among the highest-spending franchises in baseball and also among those most at fault for stifling the market. Keep in mind this exploration from Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports, this isn’t simply a Dodger issue – this is a categorical questioning of the fairness, or smartness, or rightness of team spending throughout the league. The Dodgers are the team currently left holding the bag, but the Cubs, Yankees, Giants, Astros, Indians and others could all be accused of underspending, to various degrees. Only the Red Sox and Nationals had the gall (pride? guts? willingness?) to exceed the luxury tax in 2018. Of course, it’s not “crossing the tax line” at issue, it’s that the refusal to engage the free agent market leaves wins on the table. The rigidity with which large market teams are refusing to pay the tax is baffling, especially as more and more GMs attest that there’s no mandate from ownership to do so. The party line in front offices across the league isn’t that ownership won’t pay, it’s that ownership is finally hep to the fact that big contracts means big risk that sometimes turns into a big, constant reminder of ownership’s failings. In Los Angeles, the Angels have the best player in baseball, and the best argument against these monster contracts. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have a string of six straight division titles and two straight pennants. It’s easy to understand why Kasten believes in his club’s approach.

Time remains for Harper and Machado to land the types of mega-deals they’re seeking, and they will, no doubt, end up with a sum of money that, out of context, will boggle the mind. But in context, it’s more complicated. See Grandal, Yasmani. Teams are spending less in free agency than they used to and it’s incumbent upon the game’s biggest stars to set the market. Anything less would be a disservice to the players who don’t have the same leverage.

So where do MLBTR readers stand on the state of free agency in 2019? Have teams evolved to the point that’s simply frustrating for players? Are owners valuing revenue over contention in a way that threatens the underlying infrastructure of the sport? Should players readjust their expectations? Or is this the battle that’s worth going to the mattresses?

Even, is this just what a flatter marketplace looks like? With opposing sides taking longer than usual to find a middle ground? Regardless, the debate rages on. What do you think?

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Have Teams Become Too Conservative In Free Agency?

  • No. Teams are evolving and players need to adjust their expectations. 45% (9,098)
  • Not necessarily. Teams and players are opposing economic forces, both behaving as they should. 24% (4,856)
  • Yes. Teams aren't prioritizing winning as much as revenue and they should open their wallets. 23% (4,613)
  • My head hurts. 8% (1,537)

Total votes: 20,104

Reaction & Analysis: The Dodgers/Reds Trade

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The Dodgers and Reds joined forces on a fascinating seven-player swap on Friday that saw Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer, and $7MM in cash considerations go to Cincinnati for Homer Bailey and prospects Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray.  With so many financial and on-field components to this trade, it isn’t any surprise that has been a lot of analysis surrounding what this means for both the Reds and Dodgers both in terms of the pieces involved in this specific deal, and in future moves both this winter and beyond.  Here are some of the many takes on this noteworthy trade…

  • Immediately after news of the trade broke, the buzz was that the Dodgers’ latest round of “baseball money-laundering” (as one executive described it to ESPN’s Buster Olney) was a step towards a push for Bryce Harper.  It remains to be seen if the Dodgers would really be willing to offer the decade-long, record-breaking contract that agent Scott Boras is demanding for his client, as such a move isn’t characteristic of Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.  A shorter-term deal with a record-setting average annual salary likely wouldn’t appeal to Boras, Olney notes, but Harper himself could be open to such a deal if he is truly as eager to join the Dodgers as some reports have claimed.
  • The Dodgers also could have been paring their payroll not for Harper, but for targets in the 2019-20 offseason, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes.  With Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu, David Freese, and Bailey’s salary all coming off the books, Los Angeles will have $64MM to spend on free agents and trade targets next winter.  Now that the team has finally gotten under the luxury tax threshold, the Dodgers might want to minimize their penalty by only taking a one-year hit next offseason rather than again surpass the threshold this winter (i.e. to sign Harper) and thus position themselves for a heftier repeater tax in a year’s time.
  • ESPN.com’s Keith Law (subscription required) didn’t love the trade from the Reds’ perspective, writing that Cincinnati “got a little bit better, but perhaps not as much as they need to” in order to really contend for the postseason.  Puig and Wood represent upgrades on paper, though both players come with their share of question marks, and Law argues that the Reds would benefit using Kemp solely as a backup while Jesse Winker gets everyday action in left left.  Law provides some scouting info on Downs and Gray, and notes that the Reds got a lot of trade calls about Gray this offseason.
  • In contrast to Law, The Athletic’s Mo Egger (subscription required) calls the trade “a no-brainer” move for the Reds, arguing that the team benefits simply by gaining some productive MLB regulars for Bailey, who hasn’t been an effective pitcher for years due to injuries.  While this trade alone won’t make the Reds into contenders, Egger feels more is yet to come this offseason, as Cincinnati still hasn’t made any big free agent signings or begun spending its promised extra payroll dollars.
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