Blake Snell

Rays left-hander Blake Snell is set to make his long-awaited return from the injured list, the team announced. Snell will start for the Rays in a road game against the Dodgers on Tuesday, and his activation will give the club a franchise-record 38 active players.

The Rays have been without Snell since July 25, when it became apparent the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner would need arthroscopic surgery to remove a loose body from his elbow. To that point, Snell had only performed like the dominant force he was a year ago on a sporadic basis, but he has nonetheless been a significant asset this season. The 26-year-old fired six shutout innings with 10 strikeouts in his most recent start July 21, helping him to a 4.21 ERA/3.40 FIP with 12.12 K/9 and 3.12 BB/9 across 101 frames in the campaign. Snell’s strikeout rate ranks fifth among all major leaguers who have amassed at least 100 innings this year.

Despite the long-term absences of Snell and fellow starters Tyler Glasnow (who returned from the IL on Sept. 8) and Yonny Chirinos (out since Aug. 4), the Rays have continued to hold an AL wild-card spot. They’re a game back of Oakland for the league’s No. 4 seed and one and a half up on Cleveland in the race for its final postseason position. The return of Snell should only increase the Rays’ chances of clinching their first playoff berth since 2013, though he probably isn’t going to give the team a lot of innings in his first game back from the IL.

Rays lefty and reigning American League Cy Young winner Blake Snell is scheduled to return to action next week, he tells reporters including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links). Snell will take the ball on Tuesday with the expectation of throwing about three innings.

Snell last appeared in late July, at which time he was sidelined with loose bodies in his pitching elbow. He has been working back since undergoing surgery to alleviate the issue. The absence has been a bit longer than initially anticipated.

It’s great news for the Rays, who’ll allow Snell to get his competitive rehab work in at the MLB level. There aren’t any more Triple-A games for Snell to appear in. And the Rays’ adaptable pitching staff is accustomed to covering for short starts and bulk appearances.

Snell will join righty Tyler Glasnow in returning with partial availability. Unlike Glasnow, who had been firmly on the rise when he hit the shelf, Snell had taken a step back early in the season. Through 101 innings over his twenty starts to this point, Snell carries a 4.28 ERA.

That said, the Tampa Bay organization has every reason to believe that Snell can get back to being the monster he was in 2018. He had been much the same pitcher by most measures — if not better. He maintained a 3.1 BB/9 walk rate while raising his strikeout game (12.1 K/9, 17.8% swinging-strike rate) and lowering his xwOBA (.263).

There isn’t much time left for Snell to build up his pitch count. He’ll be able to make three total outings before the end of the regular season, so it’s reasonable to presume he’ll still be climbing northward come crunch time. But he’d likely be nearing full availability. And if he goes every fifth day, Snell will be on turn to start the Wild Card game.

SUNDAY: Snell’s renewal is official, Topkin tweets. He commented on the team’s decision (via Topkin), saying: “The Rays have the right under the collective bargaining agreement to renew me at or near the league-minimum salary. They also have the ability to to more adequately compensate me, as other organizations have done with players who have similar achievements to mine. The Rays chose the former. I will have no further comment and look forward to competing with my teammates and field staff in our quest to win the World Series in 2019.”

FRIDAY: The Rays intend to stick to their pre-arb salary formula with regard to lefty Blake Snell, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. It is anticipated that the team will renew Snell’s contract at the price of just $573,700.

Plenty of young major leaguers are playing at similar rates of pay, to be sure. The minimum salary sits at $555K and most organizations stay close to it, typically handing out increases measured in the thousands or tens of thousands based upon service time and certain performance standards.

The collective bargaining agreement allows teams to pay pre-arb players whatever it likes, so long as they earn at that floor level. Snell, though, needn’t agree to the salary he’s allotted. And indications are he won’t, preferring instead to make a symbolic protest.

The southpaw says it’s “disappointing” that he wasn’t rewarded with a bigger increase after wrapping up a stellar season in which he walked off with the American League Cy Young Award. He was anything but vitriolic toward the Tampa Bay organization, but left no doubt that he’ll also be taking a businesslike approach in his future dealings with the club.

Given his immense achievement, it’s not surprising that Snell would feel a bit slighted. It’s true, as Topkin notes, that renewals aren’t terribly uncommon for players who’ve turned in big seasons. But the examples he cites also highlight just how stingy the Rays’ formula is. Josh Hader declined to agree to the $687,600 salary that the Brewers’ own spreadsheets spit out. Mookie Betts wouldn’t put his signature on a $950K payday after a season in which he placed second in the MVP voting. The same thing happened last spring with Carlos Correa, who was renewed at a cool $1MM.

It is understandable enough that the Rays wish to maintain discipline, as Topkin explains, and are wary of allowing “an exception” to make it impossible to “draw, and hold, the line” in future situations. Of course, the team set its formula by fiat and can modify it at will to incorporate whatever inputs it wishes. No doubt the data-savvy organization could imagine a way to reward truly exemplary performance without opening the door to otherwise unwanted expenses. A well-crafted incentive structure might even make good financial sense, though the Rays have surely thought that through already.

With some prior extension chatter having failed to gain traction, Topkin writes, the expectation now is that the sides will go year to year in the arbitration process. Snell will hope to follow Betts in making his employer pay up through his three arb years:

“Hopefully this pushes me. Arbitration will be the business side, and that’s what I’ll tell them. I think fair is fair. It all comes around in the end anyway. At the end of the day, you get what you put in. I’ll be motivated.”

If you’re interested in learning more about the use of formulas in setting pre-arb salaries, check out this old but good piece from Zach Links on the subject.