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Blake Snell

How A Minor Signing Led To A Cy Young Winner

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Former major league outfielder Brad Hawpe was a more-than-respectable offensive player during his peak with the Rockies. While Hawpe had difficulty early on from his debut in 2004 through the next season, he combined to slash .288/.384/.518 (124 wRC+) with 99 home runs in 2,338 plate appearances from 2006-09. The last of those four years, an All-Star campaign for Hawpe, went down as his final truly effective effort as a hitter. After Hawpe got off a .255/.343/.432 start (94 wRC+) with only seven homers in 2010, the team released him late that August.

Hawpe, then 31 years old, drew a vast amount of interest when he reached free agency amid a pennant race. He ultimately signed a minor league contract with the Rays, who at the time were in a hotly contested fight for AL East supremacy with the Yankees and Red Sox. The Rays did end up with 96 victories and a division crown that season before falling in the ALDS, but their regular-season sucess wasn’t Hawpe’s doing. He debuted with Tampa Bay on Sept. 1 and went on to hit .179/.304/.333 with two homers in 39 at-bats in its uniform.

Hawpe didn’t participate in the Rays’ postseason series, and shortly after its conclusion, he rejected their arbitration offer in order to revisit the open market. Because he was a Type B free agent under MLB’s old system, the Rays were entitled to a compensatory draft pick for losing Hawpe. And they did watch him exit when he took San Diego’s $2MM guarantee in January 2011. Hawpe didn’t produce as a Padre or as a member of the Angels, with whom his career concluded in 2013, but the Rays have benefited immensely from his short-term run with them and stand to continue gaining from it over the long haul.

In essence, the Rays traded one month of Hawpe – who cost them very little money – for the 52nd selection in the draft. The Rays used that choice on a then-Washington state high school left-hander named Blake Snell. The year Tampa Bay drafted him, Baseball America wrote in his scouting report, “Because of his signability, his velocity and how well he has performed in front of crosscheckers, Snell could get popped as high as the supplemental first round, though on pure talent he would probably go a few rounds later.”

The gamble has worked out for the Rays, with whom Snell has been elite at times dating back to his first season in 2016. He spun 89 innings of 3.54 ERA ball then, and though Snell struggled enough the next season to earn a short-term demotion to the minors, he returned to MLB to finish with a decent 4.04 ERA in 129 1/3 frames. But it was 2018 when Snell truly took off; owing in part to a jump in velocity, he pitched to a 1.89 ERA with 11.01 K/9 and 3.19 BB/9 across 180 2/3 innings en route to AL Cy Young honors.

With injuries troubling him, Snell was unable to reign atop the AL again last year, when his ERA ballooned to 4.29 in 107 innings. However, that’s not to say he totally fell off the map. You’d be hard-pressed to find a team that wouldn’t sign up for the 3.32 FIP and 12.36 K/9 against 3.36 BB/9 he posted last season.

The Rays already extended Snell on a five-year, $50MM guarantee deal before the prior campaign, keeping a high-end starter under control through 2023. To think, it all started with the minor addition of Hawpe a decade ago. Not bad.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Latest On The Impact Of Coronavirus Around The Game

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As players and owners work on negotiating a financial accord to allow for the start of play, opinions have trickled in from all reaches of the baseball-sphere with personal stances about how best to reboot gameplay. After Blake Snell set off a bit of a firestorm with his concerns about returning to the field, many players have chimed in to support the lefty hurler. Obviously, many players are justifiably concerned about what gameplay would mean for their safety and the safety of their families. No one understands this as much as Yoan Moncada, whose 1-year-old daughter was recently hospitalized. She’s doing better now, and Moncada, despite the scare, is ready to return to play should that become a possibility, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Van Schouwen provides a quote from Moncada, who said, “[My family is] concerned, as everybody is. But if the conditions are safe, they’re going to be good with it. But it is a concern no matter what.” Obviously, everyone has been affected in some form or fashion by this pandemic, and players face difficult personal decisions ahead before returning to play. Of course, COVID-19 has hurt not just the players and owners…

  • While most of the focus has remained on the league’s attempts to return to the playing field, the consequences of the shutdown are hitting home for many professionals in the field. The Reds, Rays, and Marlins have announced furloughs that are to begin in June, and the latest from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) has the Angels among the teams considering the same. Officially, the Angels are still on the fence. It is nonetheless an unfortunate and troubling development for those involved. Hopefully, some of the larger market franchises will be better equipped to weather the storm for their employees.
  • Beyond the question of will-they-or-won’t-they play a 2020 season, there are ancillary questions that need answering in the event of a shortened 2020 season. Joel Sherman of the New York Post runs through a whole host of those issues that will require answers at some point. Among Sherman’s inquiries are topics ranging from a potential trade deadline to drug testing to the practical concerns of the games themselves. Baseball is in a better position than heavy-contact sports like basketball and football, but the game still cannot be played with players keeping a 6-foot distance from one another. It helps that the primary action takes place between a batter and pitcher standing 60 feet and 6 inches apart, but there is plenty of potential for in-game contact, as well as the mere fact of shuffling 26-man rosters from stadium to stadium together.
  • The Red Sox will be able to resume play at Fenway Park this season according to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh. There are, of course, a number of conditions to meet before play resumes at Fenway. For instance, fans will not be allowed in attendance, per Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe. There will also be safety measures that the city of Boston must sign off on before play resumes. Still, it may give players a welcome sense of familiarity to be able to play in their home ballparks, even without fans in the seats. The number of teams that will be able to resume play in their home parks remains up in the air for now, though that does seem to be the goal for most teams.

Quick Hits: Snell, Draft, Torkelson, Molina, Jefry

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It’s not quite a Cy Young Award, but Rays southpaw Blake Snell captured another unique honor by winning the MLB The Show Players League championship today.  (MLB.com’s Mandy Bell, Adam Berry, Do-Hyoung Park and Juan Toribio have the details.)  The tournament featured one player from each team competing in a round-robin regular season of games of MLB The Show, with the top performers advancing to the postseason.  Snell dominated play in both the regular season and playoffs, including a three-game sweep of Lucas Giolito in the best-of-five World Series.

Snell’s victory clinched an extra donation to the Boys & Girls Clubs of the Suncoast.  Each of the 30 players represented a different local Boys & Girls Club, with every Club receiving charitable donations from the league, the players’ union, and Sony Interactive Entertainment.  Full details on the tournament are available here.

Some more notes from around the non-virtual baseball world…

  • There seems to be an increasing expectation that the Tigers will take Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson with the first overall pick in the amateur draft, according to both Lynn Henning of the Detroit News and Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press.  While nothing will be certain until Torkelson’s name is called, the slugger is considered the top prospect available by many pundits, and is perhaps something of a safer pick.  Perfect Game national director Brian Sakowski tells Fenech that the lack of spring baseball created less opportunity for any prospect to showcase new skills or have a breakout performance, so while Vanderbilt’s Austin Martin may not necessarily be behind Torkelson on Detroit’s draft board, the lack of clarity about Martin’s future defensive position might inspire the Tigers to just go with Torkelson’s more obvious power potential.  Henning is even more straight-forward in his assessment, writing “the Tigers are all but certain to take Torkelson,” as he would immediate become the headline bat in a Detroit farm system that is rich in quality young arms but short on blue chip hitting prospects.
  • Yadier Molina raised some eyebrows by recently saying that he was open to play for another team besides the Cardinals when he reaches free agency, though Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch still feels Molina will ultimately remain with the Redbirds.  “The Cardinals need Molina more than any other team needs him, and no other team would appreciate him like the Cardinals do,” Frederickson writes, and a reunion should eventually happen “as long as sanity and reason remain at the heart of the conversation.”  That said, if another team could emerge as a potential suitor for the veteran catcher, Frederickson speculates the Angels could be a possibility, given Molina’s ties to Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa (who was hired in November as a special advisor to the Halos’ baseball operations department).
  • Jefry Rodriguez started eight of his 10 games with the Indians last season, though Cleveland.com’s Joe Noga feels the right-hander could be a swingman option for the Tribe if the 2020 season gets underway.  It was an open question as to whether or not Rodriguez would have made Cleveland’s Opening Day roster under normal circumstances, but his ability to work in multiple roles and pitch multiple innings could be helpful in a shortened season, given a compressed schedule and the likelihood that regular starters would be on a reduced workload.  The 26-year-old Rodriguez came to Cleveland from Washington as part of the Yan Gomes trade in November 2018, and he posted a 4.63 ERA, 6.4 K/9, and 1.57 K/BB rate over 46 2/3 innings last season.

Rebound Candidate: Blake Snell

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Right off the top, I’ll acknowledge the term ’rebound candidate’ is a bit strong to describe Blake Snell. Even looking only at bottom line results, Snell’s 2019 season was serviceable. He logged a 4.29 ERA in 107 innings over 23 starts; Baseball Reference, which emphasizes run prevention in its WAR calculation, pegged Snell at a decent 1.4 wins above replacement.

There’s no question, though, it marked a step back from his otherworldly 2018 results. That year, he tossed 180.2 innings while allowing fewer than two earned runs per nine. That league-best run prevention translated to 7.1 bWAR. Looking solely at the results, it’d be easy to conclude Snell took a massive step back last season.

Every team now looks beyond a pitcher’s mere run prevention (or win-loss record, where Snell also regressed dramatically). Looking deeper, the southpaw looked a lot like his 2018 self last year. His average fastball velocity dropped about half a mile per hour, but he still sat 95.89 MPH, per Brooks Baseball. No other left-handed starter threw harder. His spin rates across the board remained consistent 2018 to 2019, as did his arm slot. On the whole, Snell was working with the same raw stuff that enabled his 2018 dominance.

Admittedly, retaining his stuff from the year prior doesn’t automatically mean he was as effective. But on a micro level, Snell looked every bit as dominant. His 2019 strikeout rate (33.3%) was up nearly two percentage points from the year before (31.6%). His walk rate (9.1%) in each year was identical. Most importantly, Snell’s 17.7% swinging strike rate ranked #1 among all MLB starters (minimum 60 innings). The names just behind him are a who’s who of the game’s top arms: Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Luis Castillo, Jacob deGrom.

Nor was this a case of a pitcher with dominant strike zone metrics who got bombed when hitters did make contact. Snell’s 88 MPH average exit velocity and 32% hard contact rate allowed were league average, generally the same level of contact quality he surrendered in 2018. Snell’s opponents’ BABIP rose over .100 points between 2018-19, but there’s nothing to suggest he got any more hittable. (He did surrender a few more line drives last season, but large changes in line drive rate don’t tend to stick year to year). It just seems that more batted balls dropped in; if even a league average amount of those batted balls find gloves moving forward, he should again be one of the league’s toughest pitchers to score against.

If a 2020 season is ultimately played, Snell looks more than capable of contending for another Cy Young. He had a precautionary cortisone shot in his throwing elbow in February, but at last check he was feeling ’fine.’ Assuming the layoff allows him to reemerge at full health, Snell looks on track to reclaim his spot as one of the league’s best pitchers.

Quick Hits: Snell, Nationals, Cubs

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Rays left-hander Blake Snell, the recipient of a cortisone shot in his elbow last week, threw 20 fastballs on flat ground Tuesday and came out of it “fine,” according to manager Kevin Cash (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Snell’s slated to continue working back this week, but even if things go well, it does seem the former Cy Young winner will miss at least the opening week of the regular season, Topkin suggests. Snell’s elbow issues date back to last season, as he underwent an arthroscopic procedure in late July that shelved him for almost two months.

  • Nationals outfielder Adam Eaton left the team’s game after the first inning Tuesday with a tweaked left hamstring, manager Dave Martinez told Sam Fortier of the Washington Post and other reporters. The Nationals don’t regard it as a serious injury, however, as Martinez noted that Eaton likely would have stayed in had it been a regular-season game. Meanwhile, fellow Nats outfielder Victor Robles has been battling a sore left side since last week, but he also seems to be OK. If he gets through the next few days without issue, Robles could return to the team’s lineup during the upcoming weekend, per Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com.
  • It remains unclear how the Cubs will distribute playing time at second base this season, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com writes. Minor league pickup Jason Kipnis has been fighting for the starting job with holdovers Nico Hoerner, David Bote and Daniel Descalso this spring. “It really is a wait and see,” manager David Ross said of the four-way competition. A former All-Star with the Indians, Kipnis possesses the longest track record of the quartet, but his offensive production declined to a noticeable extent from 2017-19, thus stopping him from landing a guaranteed contract.
  • Sticking with the Cubs, flamethrowing pitching prospect Manuel Rodriguez is down for the time being with a Grade 2 biceps strain, Bastian tweets. Rodriguez, 23, hasn’t pitched above the High-A level to this point, but the Cubs are believers in his potential. They added Rodriguez to their 40-man roster last November to prevent another team from grabbing him in the Rule 5 Draft.

Blake Snell Discusses Health Status

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Blake Snell spoke with the media this morning about the cortisone shot he received in his throwing elbow Friday. He reiterated (via Juan Toribio of MLB.com) that he doesn’t view the issue as a long-term concern, calling the injection a precautionary measure. Nevertheless, he stopped short of declaring he’d be ready for Opening Day (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Snell being ready for the start of the season isn’t out of the question, but it’ll understandably depend on his progression in the coming weeks, Toribio adds (Twitter link).

The Rays’ lefty traced the issue back to the procedure he underwent last July to remove loose bodies from the elbow, telling reporters (Topkin link) the affected area was “super sore.” Nevertheless, Snell stressed to reporters that a CT scan didn’t identify any new chips to the bone. The 2018 AL Cy Young winner added (via Topkin) “from a throwing standpoint, I do feel great.”

To hear of a flareup in Snell’s throwing elbow after surgery sidelined him in 2019 will raise some alarm. It obviously would’ve been ideal for Rays’ fans to hear Snell definitively say he’d be ready for Opening Day. The club could no doubt use a full season of ace-like form from Snell as they seek to dethrone the Yankees in the AL East.

That said, it’s hardly time to get up in arms. Both the pitcher and organizational higher-ups (Topkin link) have downplayed the significance of the cortisone shot, and teams typically play things cautiously at this stage of spring. The Snell situation is merely one worth keeping an eye on for now.

Injury Notes: Canning, Snell, Robles

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Griffin Canning’s ongoing health concerns will remain nebulous until tomorrow at the earliest. The message from Angels manager Joe Maddon certainly paints the situation as unusual, per The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya (via Twitter). Whether there’s mixed messaging coming from the medical staff themselves, or if this particular injury is causing undue confusion isn’t totally clear from Joe’s comments. What is clear is that the next step is assessing how Canning reacts to his throwing session today. Canning is one of the wild cards in the Angels’ rotation, and it’d certainly be disappointing to begin the season with a significant setback. An update is likely to come tomorrow from Angels camp. In the meantime, let’s check in on some less serious injury news around the game…

  • Rays ace Blake Snell received a cortisone shot in his “outer elbow,” tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. He is expected to resume throwing as early as Tuesday. As important as Snell is to the Rays’ rotation, they also have admirable depth there with young players like Brendan McKay, Brent Honeywell Jr. and Anthony Banda likely on the outside looking in at this stage. Still, Topkin notes that the Rays are not worried about the southpaw’s health. Snell is coming off an injury-shortened season in which he made just 23 starts, pitching to a 4.29 ERA/3.32 FIP. The ERA ended up higher than expected, but the peripherals point to Snell being close to the same guy who won the Cy Young award in 2018, albeit with less BABIP luck.
  • Washington Nationals centerfield Victor Robles underwent an MRI on his left oblique recently. Nats fans can breath easy as the results came back negative, per MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato. Robles is already back in the cage, but the plan is to remain cautious for the time being. Given Robles’ importance to the Nats, it certainly makes sense to take their time with him this early in spring. The Nationals don’t have a ton of depth behind Robles, with Michael A. Taylor serving as his primary backup. While Taylor is an above-average defensive outfielder, his struggles at the plate led him to spend most of the 2019 season in Double-A.

Rays Activate Blake Snell

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Rays left-hander Blake Snell is set to make his long-awaited return from the injured list, the team announced. Snell will start for the Rays in a road game against the Dodgers on Tuesday, and his activation will give the club a franchise-record 38 active players.

The Rays have been without Snell since July 25, when it became apparent the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner would need arthroscopic surgery to remove a loose body from his elbow. To that point, Snell had only performed like the dominant force he was a year ago on a sporadic basis, but he has nonetheless been a significant asset this season. The 26-year-old fired six shutout innings with 10 strikeouts in his most recent start July 21, helping him to a 4.21 ERA/3.40 FIP with 12.12 K/9 and 3.12 BB/9 across 101 frames in the campaign. Snell’s strikeout rate ranks fifth among all major leaguers who have amassed at least 100 innings this year.

Despite the long-term absences of Snell and fellow starters Tyler Glasnow (who returned from the IL on Sept. 8) and Yonny Chirinos (out since Aug. 4), the Rays have continued to hold an AL wild-card spot. They’re a game back of Oakland for the league’s No. 4 seed and one and a half up on Cleveland in the race for its final postseason position. The return of Snell should only increase the Rays’ chances of clinching their first playoff berth since 2013, though he probably isn’t going to give the team a lot of innings in his first game back from the IL.

Blake Snell Slated To Return Next Week

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Rays lefty and reigning American League Cy Young winner Blake Snell is scheduled to return to action next week, he tells reporters including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links). Snell will take the ball on Tuesday with the expectation of throwing about three innings.

Snell last appeared in late July, at which time he was sidelined with loose bodies in his pitching elbow. He has been working back since undergoing surgery to alleviate the issue. The absence has been a bit longer than initially anticipated.

It’s great news for the Rays, who’ll allow Snell to get his competitive rehab work in at the MLB level. There aren’t any more Triple-A games for Snell to appear in. And the Rays’ adaptable pitching staff is accustomed to covering for short starts and bulk appearances.

Snell will join righty Tyler Glasnow in returning with partial availability. Unlike Glasnow, who had been firmly on the rise when he hit the shelf, Snell had taken a step back early in the season. Through 101 innings over his twenty starts to this point, Snell carries a 4.28 ERA.

That said, the Tampa Bay organization has every reason to believe that Snell can get back to being the monster he was in 2018. He had been much the same pitcher by most measures — if not better. He maintained a 3.1 BB/9 walk rate while raising his strikeout game (12.1 K/9, 17.8% swinging-strike rate) and lowering his xwOBA (.263).

There isn’t much time left for Snell to build up his pitch count. He’ll be able to make three total outings before the end of the regular season, so it’s reasonable to presume he’ll still be climbing northward come crunch time. But he’d likely be nearing full availability. And if he goes every fifth day, Snell will be on turn to start the Wild Card game.

AL Notes: Rays, O’s, Alberto, Tigers, Hardy

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Let’s kick off the week with updates on a trio of American League clubs…

  • The wild card-contending Rays haven’t set specific timetables for the returns of injured starters Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and Yonny Chirinos, but the three figure to come back in that order, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. Glasnow, who has been out since early May with a forearm injury and will finish 2019 as a reliever, could rejoin the team in the second week of September, per Topkin. Meanwhile, Snell is “probably 10 days behind [Glasnow] at least,” according to manager Kevin Cash. Snell, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left elbow a month ago. Chirinos has been down for three weeks with an inflamed right middle finger – an injury that has thrown a wrench into a solid season for the 25-year-old.
  • Utilityman Hanser Alberto was waiver fodder last offseason, switching teams on multiple occasions before finally settling in with the Orioles for good in March. Since then, the 26-year-old has enjoyed what has easily been a career season. He’s slashing .314/.337/.440 with 10 home runs in 432 plate appearances, and the right-hander been downright dominant against lefties – whom he has victimized for a .402/.422/.540 line over 180 PA. A .446 batting average on balls in play has buoyed Alberto’s numbers versus southpaws, though, and Statcast isn’t really buying into his above-average production. Nevertheless, he’ll garner trade interest in the offseason, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com hears. It’s up in the air whether the O’s will strongly consider moving Alberto, who has played second and third with regularity this year and will enter arbitration for the first time in the offseason.
  • Tigers lefty Blaine Hardy’s season came to an end two weeks ago when he underwent a platelet-rich plasma injection in his elbow. Looking ahead to the offseason, Hardy realizes his Tigers tenure could conclude next. “You know and I know I might not be in Lakeland next year,” the 32-year-old told Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, referring to the team’s spring training home in Florida. Hardy has been a fairly successful reliever in Detroit since he debuted in 2014, but after elbow issues helped limit him to a 4.47 ERA/5.72 FIP with 5.89 K/9 and 2.64 BB/9 in 44 1/3 innings this year, it’s possible the Tigers will non-tender the soon-to-be out-of-options hurler as he readies for his second trip to arbitration. Regardless, Hardy’s glad he decided to call it a year instead of trying to gut out his elbow problems through the season. The Tigers were on the verge of demoting Hardy to Triple-A Toledo before his PRP injection, leading him to tell McCosky: “I had so many people in my corner say it would’ve been career suicide if I decided to go down to Triple-A and keep pitching through this. If something happened, and they found the tear at Triple-A, it would have been hard to retro it back to a big-league deal.”
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