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Bo Bichette To Miss “Multiple Weeks” Due To Calf Strain

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5:05pm: Schneider told reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) this evening that an MRI revealed a “moderate” calf strain for Bichette and that he will be sidelined for “multiple weeks” due to the issue.

10:57am: Bo Bichette left yesterday’s game due to a right calf strain, and it comes as no surprise that the Blue Jays have now placed the shortstop on the 10-day injured list.  Infielder Addison Barger has been called up from Triple-A to take Bichette’s spot on the active roster.

Bichette broke out of the batter’s box after lining out to right field at the end of the sixth inning, but immediately came up limping after a few steps.  Last night’s injury was the latest occurrence in what has been a collection of calf injuries for Bichette over the last month, as he spent a minimal 10-day stint on the IL with another strain to his right calf in June.  He also left Toronto’s game on July 10 with what was described as a right calf fascia strain, though with the All-Star break looming, the Jays opted to not place Bichette on the IL again, hoping that the time off would allow him to heal up.

Unfortunately, Bichette now again finds himself sidelined, and likely for well beyond a 10-day minimum.  Blue Jays manager John Schneider should soon update media on the outcome of Bichette’s MRI, yet even if the MRI was clean, the recurring nature of this calf injury probably means the Jays will opt on the side of caution in giving Bichette plenty of time to fully overcome this issue.  This almost surely means that Bichette will still be on the injured list when the trade deadline hits on July 30, all but eliminating the possibility that Toronto could part ways with the former All-Star.

Though it isn’t unheard of for teams to still make offers for injured players if an injury appears to be fairly minor in nature, two calf injuries for Bichette in a month’s time would likely give pause to any potential suitor.  From the Jays’ perspective, they’re not going to accept a diminished trade package for a player who (if healthy) is one of their strongest trade chips.  Even as it looks more and more apparent that Toronto will be deadline sellers, the team reportedly is still planning to contend in 2025, so their July 30 moves might be limited to pending free agents rather than longer-term core pieces.

Even beyond Bichette’s injuries, his trade value has been lowered by an unexpectedly disastrous 2024 season.  Bichette is hitting .222/.275/.320 with four home runs over 331 plate appearances, and his 69 wRC+ is the third-lowest among all qualified hitters in baseball.  Even if a low .266 BABIP and a big gap between his wOBA (.264) and his xwOBA (.306) count as some misfortune, Bichette’s power numbers have absolutely cratered from his career norms.  His .098 Isolated Power number is almost half the .187 ISO he posted from 2019-23, and his traditionally strong barrels and barrel rates are both well under the league average in 2024.

It is also worth noting that this isn’t entirely a one-year trend for Bichette.  His strong 2023 season sputtered to an end thanks to a pair of IL stints in the second half, as Bichette missed time to patellar tendinitis in his right knee and then a right quad strain.  Bichette’s first IL stint began on August 1, 2023, and he hit only .254/.292/.402 over his final 130 PA of the 2023 season.

With almost a full year of sample size, it is clear that Bichette simply hasn’t been right since that initial bout of tendinitis last August, and it is an additional concern that all of these injuries have come to his right leg specifically.  If Bichette is facing a fairly lengthy (say, a month or so) stay on the injured list anyway with his latest calf problem, it isn’t out of the question that the Blue Jays might just shut him down to get him ready for 2025, since the team won’t be in contention for the remainder of this year.

If the Jays’ next two months indeed become an information-gathering session for 2025, one silver lining to Bichette’s absence could be more playing time for Leo Jimenez at shortstop.  Jimenez has hit and fielded well in his small nine-game sample size as a big leaguer, and could become a shortstop of the future if Bichette is traded at some point, or if he leaves in free agency following the 2025 season.

Jays Notes: Bichette, Garcia, Votto

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Bo Bichette exited tonight’s game after six innings. The Blue Jays shortstop came up limping out of the batter’s box after hitting a line drive to right field. Toronto announced that Bichette suffered a right calf injury. Manager John Schneider said postgame that he was headed for an MRI (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com).

A strain in the same calf sent Bichette to the injured list last month. The 26-year-old infielder returned after a minimal stint. Tonight’s evident setback could send him back to the shelf. Even a minimal IL stay would keep him out through the July 30 trade deadline.

With the Jays plummeting out of playoff contention, Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have been the subject of some trade speculation. GM Ross Atkins shot down the chance of moving either player last month, but the Jays have fallen more definitely from the postseason fringe since then. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported last week that Toronto was still more focused on moving impending free agents. Bichette is under contract for $16.5MM next season and will hit free agency after the ’25 campaign.

This summer would be an inopportune time to deal Bichette even if the Jays listen to offers on more controllable players. This has been by far the most challenging season of his career. He’s hitting .222/.275/.320 over 331 trips to the plate. Bichette has four longballs after reaching the 20-homer threshold in three consecutive seasons. He might now be headed for his second IL stint in as many months.

In more positive injury news, the Jays welcomed Yimi García back from the 15-day injured list before today’s game. The veteran reliever missed a month with ulnar neuritis in his elbow. García is one of six impending free agents on the Toronto roster and has a strong chance to move before the deadline. The right-hander owns a 2.57 ERA through 28 innings. García is running a personal-best 34.6% strikeout rate while generating swinging strikes on 13.4% of his offerings. He’s playing on a $6MM salary and should be a target for contenders seeking a setup option.

Justin Turner is another of the rentals whom the Jays could look to move this month. Dealing Turner would open the designated hitter spot. That’d theoretically open an opportunity for Joey Votto. Unfortunately, the former MVP’s homecoming with the Jays has been sidetracked by injuries. Votto hurt his right ankle during Spring Training and has spent the season on the Triple-A injured list. He was set to begin his stint for Triple-A Buffalo tonight before tweaking his ankle during pre-game work (relayed on X by Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic). He’ll be reevaluated tomorrow.

Blue Jays Reportedly Expressing Openness To Moving Rentals

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After another tough loss in San Francisco last night, the Blue Jays enter play this evening at 41-50. They’ve dropped nine games behind the Red Sox for the American League’s final postseason spot. Only the Angels, A’s and White Sox have a worse record in the AL.

With less than three weeks until the deadline, time is running out for the Jays to avoid selling. On June 27, GM Ross Atkins called the next few weeks “exceptionally important” in determining the team’s direction. The Jays have gone 5-7 since then.

Unsurprisingly, that looks like it’ll leave the front office to contemplate dealing short-term pieces. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote last night that the Jays have indicated to other teams that they’re willing to move impending free agents. Feinsand suggested that Toronto is still disinterested in dealing players who are under team control beyond this season. Feinsand left open the possibility of Toronto holding onto players if they author a dramatic turnaround in the next couple weeks, but he noted that the Jays “are prepared to sell” if they don’t reverse course quickly. Including tonight, they have 16 games until the deadline.

A reluctance to trade controllable players aligns with Atkins’ prior public comments. The GM said in early June that moving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette — each of whom are slated for free agency at the end of next season — “just doesn’t make any sense for us.” While Atkins didn’t categorically shoot down the idea of moving any other players, a reluctance to deal Guerrero and Bichette indicates the team expects to rebound in 2025.

Even if the Jays focus trade discussions on rentals, the roster could look very different in a few weeks. Toronto has six impending free agents, each of whom has a realistic chance to go. That group is headlined by Yusei Kikuchi, who slots alongside Jack Flaherty as the top rental starting pitchers who should be available.

Kikuchi is coming off one of the best outings of his career. The lefty set a personal high with 13 strikeouts over 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball in San Francisco yesterday. He has allowed an even four earned runs per nine through 101 1/3 innings. Kikuchi has fanned an above-average 26.1% of opponents while cutting his walks to a career-low 5.4% clip. Home runs have always been an issue for the veteran southpaw, particularly against right-handed hitters. Yet Kikuchi is working on a second straight season with an ERA around 4.00 with plus strikeout and walk numbers.

This is the final season of his three-year, $36MM free agent deal. The contract was frontloaded, so Kikuchi is making just $10MM this year. Around $3.28MM would remain at the deadline. That should be affordable for most contenders. Kikuchi would be a realistic qualifying offer candidate if the Jays don’t trade him. If Toronto exceeds the luxury tax threshold, they’d only receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in the 2025 draft if a qualified free agent signs elsewhere.

That’s also a potential factor for Danny Jansen, who is the top impending free agent catcher. Jansen’s free agent and trade appeal looked a lot stronger as recently as a month ago. The righty-hitting backstop carried a .287/.371/.535 batting line into June. He has hit an ill-timed power outage in the past six weeks. Jansen has gone without a homer while running a .122/.241/.162 slash since the end of May. His season line (.217/.315/.377 over 203 plate appearances) is exactly league average, as measured by wRC+.

Despite the slump, the Jays should still get calls on Jansen. There aren’t likely to be many starting caliber catchers available this summer. Jansen has shown that kind of talent throughout his career, though his value has generally been undercut by a lengthy injury history. Even if he’s not currently in top form, Jansen has excellent strike zone discipline with double-digit home run power. He’s a quality receiving catcher but doesn’t have a great arm. The 29-year-old is making $5.2MM in his final arbitration season.

Kevin Kiermaier and Justin Turner are both playing on one-year free agent deals, respectively valued at $10.5MM and $13MM. They’re established veterans who could generate some interest for a bench role on a contender. The Jays would likely need to pay down most of the money to facilitate a trade of either player, though. Kiermaier remains an excellent defensive center fielder but has a career-worst .187/.232/.295 batting line over 181 plate appearances. The 39-year-old Turner is hitting .240/.347/.360 with five homers over 294 trips to the plate. He is working mostly as a designated hitter with sporadic reps at the corner infield spots.

Relievers Yimi García and Trevor Richards are the final two impending free agents. García, who is playing on a $6MM salary, got out to an excellent start to the year. He fired 28 innings of 2.57 ERA ball with a huge 34.6% strikeout rate over 27 appearances. An elbow issue sent him to the injured list in mid-June. García is on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Buffalo. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com tweets that neck stiffness has delayed him but the Jays are hopeful that García will be ready for reinstatement this weekend.

Richards, who is making just $2.15MM in his last arbitration season, owns a 3.40 earned run average in 47 2/3 frames. The changeup specialist has fanned a quarter of opponents against a 9% walk rate. Richards doesn’t have eye-popping velocity and this year’s 10% swinging strike rate is the lowest of his career. He’s best suited for a middle relief role but should have some appeal on the trade market as an affordable multi-inning arm.

Moving the bulk or all of those players could have significant financial ramifications for the organization. RosterResource estimates the organization’s luxury tax commitments just north of $247MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts calculates the team’s CBT mark closer to $250MM. Those outside projections put the team $10-13MM above this year’s $237MM base tax threshold. An organization’s competitive balance tax number is calculated at the end of the season.

If the Jays commit to selling, they could get close to or below the tax line. They should be able to offload the prorated portions of Kikuchi’s $12MM and Jansen’s $5.2MM respective CBT numbers. If García is healthy, they could probably find a taker for what remains of his contract. Depending on what portion of the Kiermaier and Turner money another team might be willing to eat, there may be a path to getting their CBT number under $237MM. That would reset the team’s tax bracket and free them from the escalating penalties as a repeat payor if they decided to spend back above the tax line in 2025.

Getting under the CBT marker would be much easier if the Jays were willing to go beyond the rentals. Guerrero, Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chad Green are all on notable arbitration or multi-year salaries. Moving anyone from that group would make a return to competitiveness in 2025 more of an uphill battle, of course. It doesn’t seem that’s an avenue the front office is eager to take. It remains to be seen if they’ll more seriously consider that kind of roster overhaul over the coming weeks.

Blue Jays’ GM Ross Atkins Talks Deadline Approach

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Even after last night’s 9-2 drubbing of the Yankees, the Blue Jays sit six games below .500. They’re at the bottom of the AL East with a 37-43 record and have three teams between them and the Royals — the current holder of the American League’s final playoff spot.

It’s certainly not where the Jays expected to find themselves at the season’s halfway point. Toronto had won between 89 and 92 games in each of the past three seasons and has gotten to the postseason in three of the last four years. They should be squarely in their competitive window.

That sets the Jays up as one of the more interesting pivot teams over the next month. They’re not eager to sell, but they’re running low on time to play their way back into the playoff mix. Toronto is 6.5 back in the Wild Card race. Any hope they had of winning the division coming into this year has long since disappeared.

GM Ross Atkins acknowledged the team’s precarious position when he spoke with the Toronto beat before Thursday’s win. “We’ve obviously put ourselves into a tough spot over the last seven days,” Atkins said (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). “Ten days ago, we were feeling like there was positive momentum, and that has gone away.”

Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote earlier this week that the Jays weren’t yet willing to make key players available in trade. Atkins suggested similarly in his comments on Thursday, saying the front office’s “focus is on the 2024 team.” While the GM acknowledged that any decision also involves consideration of the future, he pointed to the organization’s investment in both payroll and prospect capital in this roster. “We’ll continue to do that until it doesn’t make sense to do so any more,” he added.

That naturally raises the question of when the front office could decide they have no choice but to turn their focus toward the future. That’ll largely depend on how things play out in the next four to five weeks — both in Toronto and around the rest of the American League. “The coming days are exceptionally important to us, and understanding the market is also exceptionally important to us in either way,” Atkins said (via Matheson). “We’re focused on winning. We’re focused on building the best possible team we can this year and supporting them the best we can. If we get to a point where we need to adjust, we’ll be prepared to do so.”

Toronto isn’t unique in that regard. There are only five or six (depending on one feels about the Tigers) teams who look like clear-cut sellers at this point. Yet there aren’t many more who can feel secure about their chances of getting to the postseason. Upwards of half the teams in the league could decide their deadline direction based on how they perform in July. Various clubs could also try to straddle the line by offloading some veterans while looking for immediate help in other areas of the roster.

The Jays have a more established roster than most of those fringe teams. Toronto has potentially impactful trade candidates with varying levels of club control. Neither Danny Jansen nor Yusei Kikuchi has played well in recent weeks, yet they’d both started the season quite well. Jansen is the top impending free agent catcher, while Kikuchi would be one of the more talented rental starting pitchers on the market if the Jays made him available.

Yimi García is pitching well and would be a straightforward target for teams seeking veteran bullpen help if he’s healthy by the deadline.  (He went on the injured list with elbow neuritis two weeks ago.) Justin Turner and Kevin Kiermaier are having disappointing seasons. While the Jays would probably have to kick in cash to facilitate trades of either player, they could get calls based on their pre-2024 track records.

Things would become more interesting if the Jays seriously considered moving key players who are under control beyond this season. That would signify a bigger reset than merely trading rentals. There’s an argument for doing so if the Jays can’t claw back into contention over the next few weeks. Toronto has a handful of players who are in or at the back end of their primes. They’ve got dwindling control windows on franchise faces Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, each of whom are slated for free agency after the 2025 campaign. Bichette will make $16.5MM next season, while Guerrero is going to be due a noteworthy raise on this year’s $19.9MM salary.

Atkins bluntly shot down the notion of trading either star hitter earlier this month. That presumably won’t stop teams from calling to gauge whether the Jays are willing to reconsider. Bichette himself told Hazel Mae (X link) that he wouldn’t be surprised if the Jays moved him, though that’d presumably change if the team plays its way back into contention.

Guerrero is amidst arguably the second-best offensive season of his career. He’s hitting .289/.370/.447 across 351 plate appearances. While he hasn’t hit for the same level of power he did in 2021-22, Guerrero has the second-highest average and on-base mark of his career. Bichette hasn’t performed to his usual standard, running a personal-worst .232/.282/.333 slash line over 287 trips. While that’d arguably make this summer an inopportune time to move him, Bichette would surely still draw ample attention if the Jays put him on the market. There aren’t many everyday shortstops who seem likely to be available.

Beyond that duo, the Jays have a handful of controllable players who could generate calls, particularly on the pitching side. Jordan Romano has spent the past month on the injured list with elbow inflammation. He’s a two-time All-Star closer who is under arbitration control through next season, though. Romano recently resumed throwing from 120 feet on flat ground (via the MLB.com injury tracker). Chris Bassitt is making $22MM this season and next. He turned in a 3.60 ERA over 33 starts a year ago and has worked to a 3.45 mark with decent strikeout and walk numbers over 91 1/3 innings. Trading Kevin Gausman, who is under contract through 2026, still seems unlikely unless the front office kicks off a more significant reboot.

If the Jays perform the way they’re hoping over the next month, adding to the bullpen and deepening the lineup would be the likely priorities. The Romano and García injuries — paired with Erik Swanson’s struggles — have contributed to the Jays running out one of the least consistent relief groups in the majors. The bottom half of the lineup hasn’t performed up to expectations either. That’s largely due to underperformance from the likes of Bichette, Turner, Kiermaier and George Springer. The Jays also entered the season with questions at second and third base. They’ve plugged rookie Spencer Horwitz into regular action at the keystone while free agent signee Isiah Kiner-Falefa (who has somewhat quietly impressed with a .283/.333/.402 showing) has gotten the bulk of the third base reps.

Blue Jays Place Bo Bichette On Injured List, Recall Orelvis Martinez

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The Blue Jays announced a series of roster moves today, with shortstop Bo Bichette placed on the 10-day injured list with a right calf strain, retroactive to June 15. Infielder Orelvis Martinez was recalled and will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. They also made a bullpen swap, with left-hander Brandon Eisert optioned as right-hander Ryan Burr was recalled.

Bichette hasn’t played since Friday due to this calf issue. The Jays didn’t place him on the IL right away as they monitored the development of the injury, but it seems it didn’t heal up as hoped and the determination was made to place him on the shelf. Since the move is backdated, he could be back in as soon as a week’s time if he feels better. Manager John Schneider says that is indeed the hope, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet on X.

It’s been a rough season overall for Bichette, who is hitting just .237/.286/.342 on the year, a far cry from the .299/.340/.487 line he carried into the season. It’s possible that some of that is batted ball luck, as he had a .349 batting average on balls in play coming into the year but has a .271 BABIP in 2024, but he also has just four home runs this season and a 4.7% barrel rate that’s roughly half of the 9.2% rate he has for his entire career.

He may have been turning things around after a really rough start, as he slashed .280/.321/.410 in the month of May for a 108 wRC+. His numbers in June ticked down again, though it’s possible that the calf had started nagging at him before it actually took him out of the lineup. Regardless, he’ll have at least a week to rest up and take a breather.

His injury will allow Martinez to come up to the majors for the first time. Now 22 years old, he was a fairly high-profile international signing out of the Dominican Republic, securing a bonus of $3.51MM from the Jays in 2018. As he has climbed the minor league ladder, he has made good on that strong bonus by becoming a top 100 prospect, with his home run power standing out as his most exciting tool.

In 2021, he got into 98 games between Single-A and High-A, hitting 28 home runs in that time. He was promoted to Double-A in 2022 and there was a bit of concern with his early results there. He struck out at a 28.5% clip and slashed just .203/.286/.446 that year. But the Jays still didn’t want him exposed in that year’s Rule 5 draft and added him to their 40-man roster.

He returned to Double-A to start 2023 and the results were much better. He cut his strikeout rate to 20.5% and also drew walks at a huge 14% clip. He hit 17 home runs in 70 games and slashed .226/.339/.485 for a wRC+ of 122. He was promoted to Triple-A in July of last year and now has 118 games for the Bisons under his belt with 27 home runs. His 25.4% strikeout rate in that time is a bit high but he’s also drawn walks at a 9.7% clip.

There is some slight platoon concern, as Martinez has hit .321/.406/.661 against lefties this year but just .240/.324/.480 the rest of the time, but he’s also still quite young and has shown an ability to adjust when challenged.

Defense is also a bit of question mark for Martinez. He spent a lot of time at shortstop in previous seasons but hasn’t played there in 2024, mostly lining up at second base with a bit of time at third base also mixed in. Despite the flaws, Martinez has enough upside at the plate that he’s considered one of the top prospects in the league. Baseball America currently lists him #54 overall, FanGraphs #71 and MLB Pipeline #68. Coming into the season, Keith Law of The Athletic put him in the #57 spot, though Kiley McDaniel of ESPN didn’t have Martinez on his list.

Since Martinez hasn’t been playing shortstop this year, he won’t be a direct replacement for Bichette. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been holding down that spot with Bichette out of action in recent days and will likely continue in that role, with Ernie Clement and Addison Barger capable of chipping in as well.

Martinez will be in the mix for some playing time at second and third alongside Clement, Barger, Davis Schneider and Spencer Horwitz. The club has also experimented with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. getting some time at third and he could be in the mix there as well.

The Jays have been struggling to find offense this year and recently cut both Daniel Vogelbach and Cavan Biggio from the roster, calling up Horwitz and Barger in an attempt to find some extra runs. The recall of Martinez was more motivated by Bichette’s injury but could perhaps help in that regard as well, though it’s possible it’s just a brief stay on the roster if Bichette is indeed back quickly.

The Jays are currently sporting a record of 35-37, not completely buried in the standings but they’re five games back of a playoff spot at the moment. They are reportedly going to wait until after the All-Star break to decide on how they approach the July 30 deadline.

If the recent roster shakeup can help them climb in the standings, then perhaps they can avoid a summer selloff. If not, the rumors on players nearing free agency will grow louder. That’s particularly true of Guerrero and Bichette, who are each set to hit the open market after 2025. Though with Bichette struggling this year and now injured as well, the Jays may have concerns about selling low, compounded by the public relations hit of selling a player who has been such a key part of the franchise for years. That will make the coming weeks very interesting for the club and Bichette, with the trade deadline on July 30, six weeks from today.

AL East Notes: Casas, Cole, Bichette

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The Red Sox got some good news regarding the status of first baseman Triston Casas yesterday. As he told Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe, Casas has begun taking dry swings as he works his way back from torn cartilage in his midsection. Casas indicated that if he continues feeling good after a few days of dry swings, he’ll begin making contact with a ball. McWilliams added that Casas hopes to be back in the Red Sox lineup in time for a series against the Marlins that begins on July 2.

If Casas is truly just two weeks away from a return to the majors, that would be a huge relief for a Red Sox lineup that has sorely missed his presence. While the club’s overall production since he last played on April 20 is still strong, with a 107 wRC+ that ranks eighth in the majors over that time, their wRC+ at first base has sat at just 98, below average overall and well below the production of an average first baseman. Of course, Casas is a great deal better than the average first baseman; the 24-year-old’s 160 wRC+ since the All Star break last year is the 11th-best figure in the majors over that timeframe and second only to Freddie Freeman among first basemen.

As noted by McWilliams, it’s far from guaranteed that Casas will be able to reach his target date for a return, even as he’s begun swinging a bat and running the bases. McWilliams relays that manager Alex Cora was more cautious in his comments regarding Casas’s timeline, noting that while “hopefully” Casas is back during the Miami series, the club also intends to be “smart” regarding his rehab and not rush him back before he’s ready. In the meantime, the Red Sox figure to rely on a combination of Dominic Smith and Bobby Dalbec at first base.

More from around the AL East…

  • Yankees ace Gerrit Cole made his third rehab start on Friday, striking out ten batters in 4 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level. While neither Cole nor manager Aaron Boone would commit to Cole’s next start for the club coming in the majors in conversation with reporters yesterday, Jon Heyman of the New York Post noted that he felt good both immediately after the outing and the next day and that his return to the big leagues will come “soon.” A quick return to the mound for Cole would be fantastic news for the Yankees, as the 2023 AL Cy Young award winner would surely bolster an already-excellent rotation that sports the league’s best ERA entering play today.
  • Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has been out of the lineup for the past two games due to what manager John Schneider described to reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) as soreness in his right calf. It’s been a tough season at the plate for Bichette, who is hitting an uncharacteristically poor .237/.286/.342 in 276 trips to the plate with Toronto this year. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has handled shortstop in Bichette’s absence, and both Ernie Clement and Addison Barger have past experience at the position if further depth options are needed. Infielders Orelvis Martinez and Leo Jimenez are both on the 40-man roster and could step into the big leagues in the event that Bichette eventually requires a trip to the injured list.

Blue Jays Notes: Deadline, Vlad, Horwitz

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The Blue Jays enter the summer as one of the most fascinating teams to monitor ahead of next month’s trade deadline. Sitting with a disappointing 29-32 record that has them in the AL East cellar, Toronto could upend the trade market if names like Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Danny Jansen, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi and others eventually are made available to contending teams. They’ve not yet reached the point where that’s under consideration, however. GM Ross Atkins recently went on record to quash such rumblings, stating that it “doesn’t make any sense” for the Jays to consider moving Bichette and/or Guerrero.

There’s some logic behind that sentiment, to be sure. The Jays may be buried with a 14-game deficit in the division, but they’re also only four games back of the third AL Wild Card spot at the moment. That’s despite the fact that key bats like Bichette, Guerrero, George Springer and offseason signee Justin Turner have underperformed. (Turner had a blistering April but fell into perhaps the worst slump of his career in May.) It hasn’t manifested yet, but the talent is certainly there for the Jays’ offense to go on a run and surge back into the playoff picture.

Any fans hoping for a proactive trade to boost the offense or an early waving of the white flag appear to be in for a letdown, however. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Jays aren’t planning to make any firm calls on their deadline approach until after the All-Star break.

Some could read that as an indication that if the Jays’ standing in the Wild Card race dramatically falls off, perhaps they’ll reconsider moving Bichette and/or Guerrero. While there are few absolutes in the game — the Nationals famously traded Juan Soto less than two months after GM Mike Rizzo publicly proclaimed he would not do so, for instance — the overwhelming majority of instances where an executive goes on record to publicly downplay such a possibility tend to play out just as the GM or president in question indicates. That said, with Jansen, Kikuchi, Bassitt, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Yimi Garcia, Kevin Kiermaier and others all signed/controlled only through this season or next, the Jays would still have plenty of attractive trade chips if they do end up as sellers.

That All-Star break target for a final call gives the current roster about six weeks to right the ship and prove that there is indeed a playoff-caliber club here — as was the general expectation heading into the season. The Jays are already getting creative in ways to change up their defensive alignment in an effort to get more bats in the lineup, giving Guerrero some starts at third base for the first time since 2019. It’s not an everyday arrangement, but manager John Schneider has suggested Guerrero could play there every five or six games or so, giving Toronto an avenue to have Guerrero and Justin Turner at the corners with both Jansen and Alejandro Kirk in the lineup (one at DH, the other at catcher).

Some may wonder why the Jays don’t simply play Turner at third base with more regularity, given that it’s been his primary position in an excellent big league career. But the 39-year-old Turner has made 11 starts at the hot corner between Boston and Toronto over the past two seasons and committed a glaring five errors in that time. While Guerrero isn’t going to provide plus defense himself, it seems the Jays prefer him to Turner from a defensive standpoint. Turner hasn’t played third base for the Jays since May 7.

Moving Guerrero to third base on occasion isn’t the only defensive shuffle that could be on the horizon, though. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith points out that Toronto has begun getting first baseman Spencer Horwitz reps at second base down in Triple-A and could soon look to him as a second base option at the big league level. Horwitz has now made 11 starts and tallied 87 innings at the position. It’s not an overwhelming amount of experience, but with Horwitz boasting an outrageous .332/.455/.510 slash in 255 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, the Jays are understandably seeking more ways to get him into the lineup.

The added flexibility will give Schneider some more ways to creatively construct his lineup. The ostensibly looming promotion of Horwitz will require Toronto to jettison one position player from the roster, and Toronto has a number of underperforming options to consider. Daniel Vogelbach has been limited to DH against right-handed pitching and managed only a .203/.282/.328 slash on the season. The aforementioned Kiermaier is hitting only .202/.254/.303, though he remains an elite outfield defender. Cavan Biggio’s .200/.323/.293 marks his fourth straight year of middling results at the dish.

However the Jays choose to proceed, getting Horwitz onto the big league roster in the near future seems prudent, particularly with Guerrero and Bichette beginning to turn things around at the plate. Guerrero entered today’s game hitting .356/.433/.477 over his past 150 plate appearances and has already launched a three-run homer. Bichette’s slow start lasted longer, but he entered play Thursday with a .303/.324/.470 batting line over his past 16 games (68 plate appearances).

Jays GM Ross Atkins: Trading Guerrero, Bichette “Doesn’t Make Any Sense For Us”

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The Blue Jays have won five of their last six games, but still sit below the .500 mark with a 28-30 record, putting them a few percentage points behind the Rays for last place in the AL East.  As Darragh McDonald put it in a piece for MLBTR last week, some tough decisions will await the club heading into the trade deadline, and perhaps in the bigger picture entirely if the Jays don’t start heating up in a hurry.

Trading either of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette would be the most seismic moves Toronto could make if the team did decide to sell at the deadline.  The duo have been the faces of this era of Blue Jays baseball, but since both are scheduled to become free agents after the 2025 season, it isn’t yet clear if either player will truly be in Toronto for the long term — whether due to the Jays’ overall struggles, or the team’s own hesitation about making a big financial commitment to players with inconsistent performance.

In either case, Jays GM Ross Atkins pushed back against the idea of a Guerrero/Bichette trade in an interview today on SiriusXM’s MLB Network Radio, and reiterated that the Blue Jays “believe in their futures and hope that there is a way they can play here for a long time.”  In regards to possible extensions, Atkins said “of course we have dialogue with them” about such multi-year deals, “and that is something that will continue.”

This belief would seem to preclude the idea of Guerrero or Bichette being moved at the deadline.  Atkins said he was “disappointed” in a recent report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, which featured a quote from an unnamed AL executive who said Toronto wasn’t “opposed to” moving one of their two cornerstones, and have “talked to teams about it,” though “the asks were ridiculous.”

Atkins didn’t deny that some conversations had taken place with other front offices about Guerrero and Bichette, but in the sense that that the other teams were floating the idea of a trade, not the Jays themselves.  Trading Guerrero or Bichette “just doesn’t make any sense for us…There will be occasional times as you’re talking to other executives, that they’ll ask if we’ll consider, and we just say it’s not something that we have spent any time on.  Because they are so talented and such great teammates, they are attractive to other teams, so [others] will call.”

It is common practice for executives to check in on all sorts of players, simply out of due diligence just in case a rival team might be open to moving a player not known to be available, or if such a player could be available at a lower-than-expected price.  Technically, a trade that “doesn’t make any sense for” in Atkins and the Blue Jays in early June could start looking a lot more sensible if the team is still struggling in late July, and some early groundwork laid by an interested suitor could make them Atkins’ first call at the deadline if the Jays did change direction.

That said, Atkins expressed confidence that better things were ahead for his team, noting that the two players have been hitting better after posting rough numbers in April.  Guerrero in particular has been hot, hitting .366/.458/475 in 118 plate appearances and 26 games from May 1 through June 1, even if he had hit only two home runs in that span.  Bichette has also posted a .318/.356/.471 slash line in his last 90 PA.

Even with the two stars producing, however, the Blue Jays as a whole have continued to struggle to score runs.  George Springer has continued to struggle, Daulton Varsho has cooled off after a solid April, and the improvements from Guerrero and Bichette have been countered by Justin Turner’s bat suddenly going ice cold over the last month.  As a collective group, the Jays are also near the bottom of the league in hitting with runners in scoring position.

With offensive production at a premium, the Jays’ lineup today had the unexpected twist of Guerrero’s return to third base.  Guerrero made his MLB debut as a third baseman in 2019, but hasn’t played the position at all since, apart from two late-game cameos at the hot corner.

Atkins said that the decision to use Guerrero at third base was “something we’ve been working on collectively…and that’s another way for us to deploy a lineup that maybe creates a little more offense.”  Manager John Schneider said the same following today’s 5-4 win over the Pirates, telling Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and other reporters that Guerrero could perhaps play one of every five or six games as a third baseman.  Turner or Daniel Vogelbach could then be used at first base or DH, or one of the Jays’ two catchers (Danny Jansen or Alejandro Kirk) could get a DH day while the other backstop is also in the lineup and behind the plate.

After Matt Chapman departed in free agency, Ernie Clement and offseason signee Isiah Kiner-Falefa have more or less split the playing time at third base this season, with Turner, Cavan Biggio, Addison Barger, and now Guerrero getting a few stray appearances.  Kiner-Falefa has also seen a good chunk of action at second base, and he has performed well in this virtual everyday role.  Not only is IKF delivering his customary strong defense, but he is also hitting .268/.315/.399 in 182 PA, for what would be a career-high 105 wRC+.

The Blue Jays May Have Some Tough Decisions To Make

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The Blue Jays are obviously not having the season they envisioned in 2024. The club played at a 90-win pace over the previous four years, making the playoffs in three of those seasons and falling just one game short in 2021. But here in 2024, they are 21-26, last in the East and ahead of just the Athletics, Angels and White Sox in the American League standings.

The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs currently give them a 17.9% of getting into the postseason, though the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are more bullish and still give the Jays a 30% shot. A sudden hot streak could certainly change those numbers in a hurry, but as the sand keeps falling through the hourglass, the club will have to think about how they handle a summer where they are unexpectedly out of contention.

Right-hander Kevin Gausman didn’t mince his words when assessing the situation yesterday, per Rob Longley of The Toronto Sun. “The reality is if we don’t play well, this team will not be together for much longer,” Gausman said. “It might make another year. It might make another year and a half. It might make a couple of months. That’s just the reality.”

There are various ways to play things when dealt a hand like that. Last year’s Cardinals, for instance, decided to only trade away impending free agents and keep the core intact for another shot at contention in 2024. They flipped impending free agents Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton, Jordan Hicks and Paul DeJong to add some younger players to the system but kept most of the roster in place, then added to it by signing veterans like Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.

If the Jays were to take that path, their impending free agents are Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Yimi García, Daniel Vogelbach, Danny Jansen and Trevor Richards. Kikuchi had a 3.86 earned run average last year and is down to 2.64 this year, so he would certainly have interest. García is striking out 35.3% of batters faced this year and has a 0.47 ERA. Richards has a 2.91 ERA and 29.4% strikeout rate. Trading catchers is a bit tricky midseason because of the challenges of learning a new pitching staff, but Jansen hits enough that he could appeal to a club looking for a guy to serve as a designated hitter and occasional backup catcher. Kiermaier isn’t hitting much this year but could certainly make for a glove-first fourth outfielder on a contending club. Turner and Vogelbach aren’t having great years and would need to get hot to have some trade value.

Even with trading Kikuchi, the club could go into 2025 with a strong starting rotation to build around. Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Alek Manoah are still under contract or club control next year, as are Yariel Rodríguez, Bowden Francis, Ricky Tiedemann and Adam Macko.

The larger and more difficult questions for the Jays will involve looking deeper into the future. They have a large number of players who are set to be free agents after 2025, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette being the most notable, though the list also includes Bassitt, Jordan Romano, Chad Green, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Tim Mayza, Erik Swanson and Génesis Cabrera.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com recently explored the idea of Bichette and Guerrero being available and asked an anonymous executive about it. “I don’t think they’re opposed to it,” the executive said of the Jays. “They’ve talked to teams about it. The asks were ridiculous, but I think they’re going to try to retool a lot, and using those guys to get pieces may be the way to do it.”

There’s nothing necessarily surprising in that. Front office members discuss all kinds of trade scenarios that never come to fruition. Given where the Jays are in the standings, it’s logical that general manager Ross Atkins and his team would explore their options. And it’s also sensible that they would set a massive asking price with still over two months until the deadline.

Whether they pull the trigger on a deal for Guerrero or Bichette or both will depend on various factors. The club’s record here in 2024 would obviously be one factor, as would the organization’s perspective on their chances at another shot at contention in 2025. Naturally, the kinds of offers being put on the table will also be significant and it’s fair to wonder what kind of shape they would take right about now.

Bichette hit .299/.340/.487 in the past five seasons for a 127 wRC+ but is slashing just .226/.284/.327 here in 2024, which translates to a 77 wRC+. He has lowered his strikeout rate to 14.8%, which would be a career low by a significant margin, but he has just two home runs so far. His .257 batting average on balls in play is well below the .349 mark he carried into the year but he’s also not squaring the ball up like before. His 4.2% barrel rate this year is less than half his career clip of 9.4%. His exit velocity and hard hit rates still look comparable to previous years, so rival clubs would undoubtedly have interest in acquiring Bichette and getting a bounceback, but the Jays wouldn’t exactly be selling high if these kinds of numbers hold for the next few months.

Guerrero’s not in a hole like Bichette, as he’s slashing .279/.374/.385 for the year. He only has four home runs but is drawing walks at a 12.6% rate. His overall offensive production translates to a 123 wRC+. That’s nothing to sneeze at but it’s also not the elite production he showed back in 2021, when he hit 48 home runs and slashed .311/.401/.601, and it just barely cracks the top ten among qualified first basemen in the league this year. Given the gap between his ceiling and his current performance, perhaps the offers from other clubs won’t match up with what the Jays are expecting.

There’s also the public relations question of whether the club wants to send out the two players who have been the collective faces of the franchise since before they even made it to the major leagues. There are some players putting up intriguing numbers in Triple-A Buffalo this year, with each of Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes, Spencer Horwitz, Steward Berroa, Leo Jimenez, Will Robertson and Orelvis Martinez currently having a 112 wRC+ or higher in more than 100 plate appearances this year. Perhaps there’s an argument for opening up playing time for some of the guys in that group, but none of them have the same level of prospect pedigree nor the name recognition of Guerrero or Bichette, making it a questionable move from both a roster construction angle and a PR point of view.

Perhaps the Jays won’t get an offer that’s enticing enough to make them cross this threshold. Maybe they keep the gang together for another shot in 2025. Perhaps they go on a hot streak and make this all moot. After all, they are only 3.5 games back of a playoff spot at this moment.

But if they stay on the fringes of the race, they have some tricky decisions to make. Trading rentals would be the easy part if they stay behind the rest of the Wild Card pack. Whether to move on to guys with extra control will be a trickier decision. It would likely reduce the club’s chances in 2025 but could be their best path to restocking their farm system, depending on what kind of offers they get. With so many players set to hit free agency either this year or next, there would surely be some temptation to infuse the system with young and controllable talent at this year’s deadline, if the opportunity to do so is there.

They would also free up a bit of payroll space in the process. Bichette is making $11MM this year and will make $16.5MM next year. Guerrero is making $19.9MM this year and will be set for a raise via arbitration into the $25-30MM range next year. The Jays could then pivot to the free agent market, as they don’t have a massive amount on the long-term books. Only Gausman, Berríos, Rodríguez and George Springer are under contract past 2025. By 2027, Berríos is the only significant contract on the books. His deal only goes through 2028 and he can also opt out after 2026.

Taking all of that into account, it will be an important summer for the Blue Jays. In the months to come, the games on the field and the conversations taking place off of it will undoubtedly be playing a huge role in the future of the franchise.

Blue Jays’ GM Ross Atkins Downplays Bichette Trade Rumors

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Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette was the subject of trade speculation last week, when a report suggested the Cubs had shown interest in the two-time All-Star. Any kind of Bichette trade always seemed far-fetched and Toronto general manager Ross Atkins shot down the possibility in a chat with reporters (including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet and Scott Mitchell of TSN) this afternoon.

Atkins called Bichette a “really good player” and pointed to the scarcity of impact position player talent available this offseason, suggesting that it’s only natural other teams would contact the Jays about his availability. Nevertheless, Atkins made clear it’s not something the Jays are pursuing. “We are very fortunate to have him and he is our shortstop moving forward,” Atkins said. “Rumors, speculation, there’s usually something (to them), but in our case, Bo is our shortstop moving forward.”

The Jays have the star infielder under contract for two more seasons. Bichette signed a three-year deal to buy out his arbitration campaigns on the eve of Spring Training. He is set for an $11MM salary next season and will make $16.5MM in his final year before free agency. That’s a price the Jays will happily pay for a shortstop who hit .306/.339/.475 over 601 plate appearances, numbers right in line with his career marks.

Toronto has openly looked for ways to add more offense alongside Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The Jays are a reported suitor for Shohei Ohtani and have shown interest in a reunion with Matt Chapman. Chapman, Brandon Belt and Whit Merrifield all hitting free agency has subtracted a trio of regulars from the lineup.

As they reload on the heels of an 89-win season that ended in the Wild Card round, the front office is unsurprisingly open to short-term acquisitions. Atkins said the team isn’t averse to trading for a player who is one year from free agency (Nicholson-Smith link). The GM didn’t mention any specific targets. Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Ha-Seong Kim and Max Kepler are among the rental players who appeared on MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 offseason trade candidates earlier this month.

Right-hander Alek Manoah also appeared on that list. The Jays have signaled some openness to moving the enigmatic hurler on the heels of a disastrous season. However, Nicholson-Smith suggests (on X) the team is more inclined to hold onto Manoah rather than selling low. At the start of the offseason, Atkins implied he was the in-house favorite to occupy the fifth spot in the rotation behind Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi.

Manoah was a Cy Young finalist as recently as 2022, when he pitched to a 2.24 ERA over 31 starts. Everything went in the wrong direction this year. Manoah allowed 5.87 earned runs per nine over 87 1/3 innings. His walk rate more than doubled while his strikeouts fell to a career-low 19% mark. He didn’t pitch again after being optioned on August 10. Last month, Atkins said the West Virginia product had received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his throwing shoulder.

The GM indicated today that Manoah is throwing as part of his offseason routine. He seems on track to be a full-go for Spring Training. He’d seemingly enter exhibition play as the #5 starter, although the Jays have at least kicked the tires on possible rotation acquisitions. They’ve been tied to Yoshinobu Yamamoto and were reportedly involved in the Aaron Nola market to some extent before he re-signed with the Phillies. If the Jays were to land another starter, it’d reignite speculation about Manoah’s availability.

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