Bo Bichette

Throughout a disappointing season for the Blue Jays, the long-term future of stars Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a focal point. Rumors surrounding the pair of second-generation stars dominated headlines early in the summer as the Jays struggled, though they were somewhat quelled by GM Ross Atkins saying in early June that trading either Guerrero or Bichette “doesn’t make any sense” for the organization.

Even as their 2024 playoff hopes dwindled, the Jays only sold off impending free agents in advance of the trade deadline. Yusei Kikuchi, Danny Jansen, Yimi Garcia and Trevor Richards were all on the move. Bichette, Guerrero, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman and others stayed put, with the clear indication being that the Blue Jays hope to retool this offseason and get back on track to contend in 2025.

Bichette and Guerrero are only controlled through the end of the 2025 season, which has brought continued speculation about the possibility of one or both players being moved this winter. Some of the Guerrero speculation has died down in the weeks since the trade deadline, though. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported after the deadline that the team still hoped to sign Guerrero long-term. Bassitt appeared on Chris Rose’s podcast and voiced his belief that even though Guerrero has not yet signed an extension, he indeed wants to be in Toronto long-term. Now, it appears Bichette’s teammates needn’t do any talking or speculating on his behalf. He’s publicly making it clear that he hopes to stay in Toronto alongside his longtime friend, Guerrero, and win a title as a Blue Jay.

“When I had time to think about what I want, basically, my ultimate goal really is to play with Vladdy (Guerrero Jr.) forever, to win a championship with him and to do that with this organization,” Bichette tells Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. “I’m 100 percent committed to doing whatever it takes to accomplish those things. That’s where I’m at.”

As Davidi explores at length in a piece Jays fans, in particular, will want to read in its entirety, that sets the 2024-25 offseason as one of the most pivotal in franchise history with regard to player personnel decisions. There’s nothing that says the Jays can’t let Guerrero and/or Bichette reach free agency, test the market, and then re-sign both players anyhow — but it’s certainly an easier and more controlled process when they’re not competing with an open market and other potential bidders for the 26-year-old Bichette and 25-year-old Guerrero.

From a payroll perspective, the Jays should be able to make dual extensions for the pair of former All-Stars work. Jose Berrios and Yariel Rodriguez are the only players signed beyond the 2026 season. Berrios, Rodriguez, the aforementioned Gausman and George Springer are the only four Blue Jays on guaranteed contract beyond the 2025 campaign. Toronto opened the 2024 season with a roughly $225MM payroll, currently sits at about $217MM after their deadline sell-off, and only has about $124.5MM in commitments for the ’25 season at the moment, per RosterResource.

That number notably does not include an arbitration raise for Guerrero — a figure that’ll likely shoot well beyond $25MM on the heels of his outstanding 2024 season. Arb raises for Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Genesis Cabrera, Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, Dillon Tate, Alek Manoah and Ernie Clement could all be in the offing as well, though some members of that class will be non-tendered or traded.

Even if the bulk of that class is retained, it’s reasonable to think that between arb raises and rounding out the roster with league-minimum players, the Blue Jays could still come in around $185-190MM in total commitments. New contracts for Guerrero and/or Bichette wouldn’t necessarily need to come with substantial raises until the 2026 season. That’d leave $35-40MM for the Blue Jays to still augment their existing roster even while simply adhering to last year’s payroll levels.

Of course, nothing says that the payroll can’t and won’t rise. The Jays are owned by a multi-billion dollar company — Rogers Communications — in theory giving them room to pursue just about any player they want (as we saw with last offseason’s earnest pursuit of Shohei Ohtani). There’s no firm indication yet that they plan to be aggressive bidders for top free agents like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman or Willy Adames, but there’s also no reason to think they can’t swim in the deepest waters the free agent pool has to offer.

The question facing the Jays will be one of how much they want to tie up in long-term allocations. Extending either Guerrero or Bichette would presumably require signing said players well into the 2030s. So would signing Soto, while the remaining top names on the market could all sign through somewhere in the 2030-32 range if their markets come together as hoped. Long-term deals for homegrown talents like Bichette and Guerrero will only maintain the status quo; it’s clear there are further reinforcements needed, so Atkins and president Mark Shapiro — assuming both stay in place after this year’s disappointing campaign — will need to balance potential extensions with the need to further fortify a roster that fell woefully shy of expectations in 2024.

Obvious as it seems, it also bears emphasizing that Bichette’s pledge only carries so much weight. He doesn’t have any no-trade protection under the three-year, $33.6MM contract he signed to buy out his three arbitration seasons. He has no direct say over whether he’ll even be in Toronto next year, let alone for the next six, seven, eight, nine or ten years. At the same time, his assertion to Davidi plainly underscores that he’s not only open to but hopeful of signing a long-term deal to stay in Canada alongside his longtime teammate and friend.

Bichette speaks to Davidi about reflecting during his current injury absence, thinking back to his A-ball days with Guerrero when the two were fresh-faced 18-year-olds talking about winning as many championships as possible together. He adds that through reflection, he’s “learned a lot more about myself through failure,” referencing his 2024 struggles, both in terms of what he hopes to accomplish on the field and as a leader in the Blue Jays’ clubhouse. (Again, Jays fans are encouraged to read the interview in full, as it’s rife with candid quotes and earnest self-assessment from Bichette.)

The 2024 season has indeed been an ugly one for Bichette. Even before sustaining the calf injury that’s sidelined him for more than a month (his second calf strain of the season), he was stumbling through the worst season of his professional career. In 331 plate appearances, he hit just .222/.275/.320 with four home runs and five stolen bases. Bichette’s 19% strikeout rate is actually lower than his career 20.6% mark, but while he was still making frequent contact, the quality of his batted balls took a nosedive. Bichette has career-low marks in exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate this season. His line-drive rate is the third-lowest of his career. His ground-ball rate is the third-highest. He hit only six infield flies in 601 plate appearances in 2023 but popped up five times in this year’s 331 plate appearances. Bichette’s contact rate on pitches in the strike zone was a career-best 91.7% — but his contact rate on balls off the plate was a career-worst 57.5%.

Prior to his ’24 struggles, Bichette was one of the most consistently impressive hitters in the American League. From 2019-23, he slashed a combined .299/.340/.487, averaging 27 homers, 40 doubles, two triples and 16 steals per 162 games played. Bichette may not have had top-of-the-scale power, speed or contact skills, but every component of his offensive tool kit played out at an above-average level, and while he’s never been a plus shortstop he’s also only had one year with truly poor defensive grades (2022).

This year’s struggles will complicate any extension talks with Bichette, of course. With a typical season, he’d have been on track to be a free agent heading into his age-28 season — a middle infielder with plus offense at a younger-than-typical age for free agency. Talk of a $250MM+ or even $300MM contract could have been in play. Such lofty heights probably aren’t attainable on the heels of a career-worst year at the plate that’s now seen multiple calf injuries keep him on the bench for two to three months. Finding a middle ground could be difficult, though an extension that allows Bichette to increase his earning power — whether via opt-out opportunities or perhaps via a series of vesting options, a la Carlos Correa in Minnesota — could offer create alternatives to help bridge the gap.

For now, the goal will simply be to get back on the field in 2024. Bichette tells Davidi that getting back on the field, knowing the injury is behind him and feeling like himself again will all be a mental boost heading into the offseason. Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling tweets that Bichette is slated to begin a rehab assignment with the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate tomorrow, which will likely last four to five games and include time at both shortstop and designated hitter. That could at least give Bichette two weeks to feel confident that his calf is back to full strength, but the bigger questions — for both him and the organization — are looming as the winter approaches.