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Orioles Notes: Davis, Rotation, Hall

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Chris Davis is probably headed to the disabled list, Orioles manager Buck Showalter told reporters today (Twitter link via the Baltimore Sun’s Jon Meoli). Earlier in the day, Meoli reported that an MRI on Davis revealed what looks to be a strained oblique muscle, and Showalter confirmed that Davis does indeed have a Grade 1 strain. There’s no timeline for his recovery available just yet, but history suggests that even a Grade 1 oblique strain could sideline Davis for more than a month. David Hall of the Virginian Pilot reports (on Twitter) that slugger David Washington will join the Orioles in place of Davis. However, as MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko notes, rookie Trey Mancini could see the most significant uptick in playing time as he returns to his natural position of first base.

More on the O’s…

  • The Orioles’ awful performance from their rotation has led to a 9-21 slide, dropping Baltimore to a half-game out of last place in the AL East, writes Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron. In that stretch, opponents have posted OBP and slugging marks that nearly mirror Miguel Sano’s current rates. Cameron examines Chris Tillman’s rapid drop in velocity and notes that colleague Jeff Sullivan recently profiled Tillman’s change in arm slot, suggesting that perhaps he’s not quite recovered from recent shoulder injuries. Kevin Gausman’s struggles are more troubling, Cameron continues, given the fact that his stuff appears similar to last year but the results aren’t there. The Orioles need to augment their rotation with multiple arms but have little in the way of minor league reinforcements, and Cameron wonders if that could push them to the trade market this summer. All of these rotation struggles come against the backdrop of a $165MM payroll club that will soon lose Manny Machado, Zach Britton and others to free agency.
  • The Orioles weren’t expecting left-hander D.L. Hall to last until their No. 21 overall selection last night, scouting director Gary Rajsich told reporters on a conference call (link via MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski). Rajsich candidly stated that the Orioles “weren’t real thrilled with our options there” but became increasingly excited as the teams in front of them passed on Hall, whom they held in very high regard. “We project him to be a future starter in our rotation, and it shouldn’t take very long,” said Rajsich of Hall. Of course, Hall was taken out of Valdosta High School in Georgia, so Rajsich’s comment is presumably in reference to Hall’s proximity to the Majors relative to other prep arms. Even a fast-moving high school arm is likely to be several years from realistically sniffing the Majors, though Hall turns 19 in September, so he is a bit more physically advanced than some of his high school peers in the draft.

Injury Notes: Taillon/Bettis, Davis, Cespedes, Reddick

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The Pirates received an incredibly encouraging start yesterday from young righty Jameson Taillon, who returned from the DL after being treated for testicular cancer. As Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes, that outing coincidentally came against the Rockies, meaning that Chad Bettis — who has also battled the same affliction — was on hand. Of course, the road back has not been quite as straightforward thus far for Bettis, who needed chemotherapy, though he has now progressed to participating in long toss. The two right-handed hurlers have communicated often this year, Nesbitt writes in an interesting piece.

Here’s more on some health situations from around the game:

  • Orioles slugger Chris Davis left last night’s contest with what the team is calling a right oblique strain. He is undergoing an MRI this morning, as Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun tweets. Skipper Buck Showalter expressed a generally pessimistic view of Davis’s outlook after the game. Indeed, it’s likely that Davis will head to the DL, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter), though there’s still nothing official. It’s tough news for a fading O’s team.
  • Also failing to make it through yesterday’s game was Mets star Yoenis Cespedes, who only just returned from a DL stint for leg muscle issues. It turns out, though, that he was dealing with pain in his left heel, as Laura Albanese of Newsday tweets. The heel is actually a long-term issue, rather than a new injury, and it seems there’s hope that it won’t limit Cespedes too significantly. That’ll surely be the team’s hope, as it attempts to climb back from a dreadful start to the season.
  • Astros outfielder Josh Reddick was diagnosed with a “mild concussion” after running into the outfield wall, as Mark Berman of FOX 26 was among those to tweet. His outlook isn’t yet known, and surely depends upon further medical evaluation today. Reddick has provided Houston with a quality .281/.338/.443 batting line though 238 plate appearances, helping the organization to the best record in baseball and a dozen-game lead in the AL West.

AL East Notes: Grilli, Dickey, Ortiz, Rickard, Davis

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The Blue Jays are expected to pick up the team’s $3MM option over righty Jason Grilli, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca notes in his breakdown of the team’s upcoming offseason plans. That’s hardly a surprise now, though it probably is one if you backtrack all the way to May 31, when he came to Toronto via trade. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained at the time, it was possible to see the potential for a rebound from the veteran, with the Jays only accepting a minimal amount of salary obligations. The 39-year-old ultimately delivered just what Toronto hoped for, contributing 42 innings of 3.64 ERA pitching with 12.4 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9. He’ll enter the 2017 as a key set-up option for the Jays, with his affordable option locking up one bullpen spot at a reasonable price.

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • Several notable Blue Jays players may well end up heading to other organizations, of course. As Davidi writes, it appears rather likely that veteran knuckler R.A. Dickey will be among them. Dickey did not commit to continuing his playing career, but says he’ll listen to any opportunities as they arise this winter after taking some time away from the game. He spoke fondly of his four seasons in Toronto, over which he turned in 824 1/3 solid innings but was never quite as dominant as hoped when the club parted with significant talent (including then-prospect Noah Syndergaard) to acquire him after three outstanding years with the Mets.
  • David Ortiz’s unbelievable final season with the Red Sox may have been more remarkable than most of us truly realized as it unfolded. As WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes, the aging slugger was fighting through lower-leg and foot issues that were far more serious than was known publicly. Widespread problems meant that Ortiz “was essentially playing on stumps,” in the words of coordinator of sports medicine services Dan Dyrek — the man who helped him hang on as long as he did. Boston fans, in particular, will want to read the entirety of this piece, in which Dyrek breaks down the immense challenges faced by Ortiz and the team’s medical staff dating back for several seasons.
  • Orioles outfielder Joey Rickard never returned to action after tearing a thumb ligament on July 20, but the hope is he won’t need surgery to address the issue, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. More importantly, highly paid slugger Chris Davis is set for doctors to check out his hand after dealing with discomfort throughout the year. Though Davis battled through the injury all year, he didn’t quite perform as hoped, and the team wants to double check that some kind of offseason procedure isn’t necessary.

Quick Hits: Papi, A’s Ballpark, Mariners’ Roster, Mancini, Harvey

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Tonight represented the end of the illustrious career of Red Sox slugger David Ortiz, as Boston was knocked out by the Indians in a sweep. The 40-year-old’s twentieth season in the majors was one of his best, as he led the league in slugging percentage and OPS (with a .315/.401/.620 batting line) while knocking 38 long balls in 626 plate appearances. Despite the team’s disappointing end to the year, the Fenway Faithful stayed on hand long after the game for one final in-uniform curtain call. MLBTR offers its congratulations to a player who was one of the greatest designated hitters ever to suit up. All told, he racked up over 10,000 MLB plate appearances with a monster .286/.380/.552 slash line and 541 home runs — 17th most in major league history.

As the Hall of Fame debate begins in earnest on Ortiz, here’s more from around the game:

  • MLB commissioner Rob Manfred expressed optimism that there will be a positive resolution in “relatively short order” on the Athletics’ quest for a new park, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (in a tweet) and Joe Stiglich of SportsNet California (Twitter links) were among those to report. Nothing seems to be imminent — Manfred suggested that something will come together within the next year — but it nevertheless seems that there’s some forward progress. He suggested that there are still several potential sites being explored in Oakland, with mayor Libby Schaaf having “made it clear to [Manfred] that baseball is her first priority.”
  • Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune takes a long look at the Mariners’ many roster decisions this winter. Among other things, he notes that Seattle is open to bringing back Drew Storen, though the sense is that the reliever will look for a late-inning opportunity elsewhere. He also breaks down the decisions on many arbitration-eligible relievers; you can find their projected arb salaries right here. In the field, Dae-ho Lee could be retained as a righty option at first, but that’s no certainty. And one of the biggest questions is at short; Dutton notes that the club intends to look into a veteran option after a tough year for Ketel Marte.
  • The Orioles may face a call on young first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com explains. He had a solid season in the upper minors, but swatted three long balls in just five games of major league action late in the year. Some might suggest that the O’s shift Chris Davis to right field, but Kubatko suggests that’s not a likely outcome. And while Mancini could get a look there, the club hasn’t seemed optimistic about such a move. Instead, perhaps, he’ll more likely push for a spot in the DH mix — but could end up back at Triple-A, at least to start the year.
  • Matt Harvey remains a wild card for the Mets after undergoing surgery to help alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome, but there’s a bit of good news on that front. Harvey is already able to throw, as he posted to his personal Instagram account. His specific timeline remains unclear, but that would seem to suggest that he’ll be ready for a full spring.

Heyman’s Latest: ChiSox, Santana, Cozart, Rockies, Davis, Brewers, Smith

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Jon Heyman of Fan Rag gives his odds on the postseason and provides a host of interesting information in his latest notes column. Here are a few highlights:

  • While there’s been some turnover in the White Sox’ dugout, as bench coach Rick Renteria has moved up to manager as a replacement for the departing Robin Ventura, changes to the field staff don’t figure to impact pitching coach Don Cooper, per Heyman. In fact, the South Siders have actually made an extension offer to their well-respected pitching coach, who is on the brink of entering his 16th season at that post.
  • While it’s hardly a surprise, Heyman notes that the Indians will exercise their $12MM option on Carlos Santana. For a player with a .259/.366/.498 with a career-high 34 homers, that decision was a no-brainer, even for a typically cost-conscious club like Cleveland.
  • The Rockies quietly made a run at Cincinnati’s Zack Cozart prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, knowing that Trevor Story, whose last game came on July 30, was ailing and could miss the remainder of the season. Talks continued into August, per Heyman, but Cozart’s own injury issues arose and made a deal more difficult. It’d have been interesting to see the Rox land Cozart, as he’d have once again become a trade chip for them in the offseason with Story expected to be ready to go for the 2017 season. While talks don’t seem likely to be revisited this winter, the note is another reminder that Cozart is a desirable trade chip for the Reds, who also had a near-swap that would’ve sent Cozart to the Mariners on Aug. 1. Heyman also reminds that longtime GM/president Walt Jocketty will step into an adviser role this winter, leaving GM Dick Williams as the top decision-maker in Cincinnati’s baseball ops department.
  • Sticking with the Rockies, Heyman chronicles the rift that grew and eventually became irreconcilable between now-former manager Walt Weiss and GM Jeff Bridich. Per the report, there was a near-total breakdown of communications between the two. Weiss expressed concern with owner Dick Monfort — who was seemingly preparing to give Weiss a two-year extension and tried to convince him to stay. But the skipper didn’t believe that the two leaders could co-exist, and Monfort ultimately stuck with his GM.
  • Tigers owner Mike Ilitch was serious about pursuing slugger Chris Davis in free agency last winter — so much so that he was willing to guarantee something approaching $200MM, says Heyman. Newly-installed GM Al Avila, however, recommended that the team take another course. Though Davis has been reasonably productive, he hasn’t produced at the levels that earned him his ultimate contract — a $161MM deal with the Orioles.
  • As the Brewers’ brass has suggested, Heyman says that the team is not inclined to utilize Jonathan Villar at third base. With Orlando Arcia seemingly set for his first full season at short, that may well mean that Villar is destined to shift over to second base. If that’s the case, it’s not clear just what role Scooter Gennett will have. The 26-year-old is entering his first season of arbitration eligibility after a posting a below-average .263/.317/.412 batting line in his 542 plate appearances in 2016.
  • Meanwhile, the Brewers may not be sold on the idea of tendering Chris Carter a contract. While the team has suggested he’s expected back, Carter’s 41 homers also make him a good bet to earn a rather significant arbitration raise.
  • The Mariners appear to be “leaning toward” picking up a $7MM option over outfielder Seth Smith. Smith, 34, isn’t quite an everyday player, but has received over 400 plate appearances in each of his two campaigns in Seattle. This year, he hit .249/.342/.415 with 16 home runs, just under his overall career marks. At $7MM, the M’s would be getting Smith for something like the going annual rate for a fourth outfielder, while limiting its commitment to a single season.

Heyman’s Latest: Teheran, Ventura, CarGo, Lucroy, Myers, Turner

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Writing at todaysknuckleball.com, Jon Heyman breaks down the woes of the Dodgers and Angels. Both teams face difficult decisions over the summer. The Dodgers, at least, still seem positioned to contend and could play an interesting role on the trade market.

Here are more notes from the column:

  • Amidst the considerable amount of Julio Teheran chatter, one Braves source tells Heyman, “I don’t see the Braves trading Teheran.” That’s a less-definitive statement than the one Heyman received regarding Freddie Freeman, as a source told him the first baseman is “totally off limits,” which lines up with GM John Coppolella’s offseason comments. Heyman adds that the Braves have “tried to dangle” Erick Aybar in trade talks, but he has no value at this point and could simply end up being released, creating an opportunity for one of Atlanta’s top-tier shortstop prospects (Dansby Swanson and Ozhaino Albies).
  • Robin Ventura is on the hot seat with the White Sox, Heyman writes (adding more detail here). A team source tells him that there’s a feeling that “patience has been shown” and a change could benefit the team. Bench coach Rick Renteria, who formerly managed the Cubs, could succeed Ventura. Not that it’s particularly surprising, but Heyman adds that former skipper Ozzie Guillen wouldn’t be a candidate to return to his old post.
  • The Rockies haven’t yet started receiving calls asking about Carlos Gonzalez, but they’re expected to listen to offers despite hovering around .500 to this point of the season. GM Jeff Bridich tells Heyman that his current focus is on winning and adds that prized righty Jeff Hoffman, who headlined the prospects acquired in last July’s Troy Tulowitzki blockbuster, is “closer than he is far away.”
  • While Jonathan Lucroy is perhaps the most-cited trade candidate in baseball, GM David Stearns tells Heyman that an extension can’t be entirely ruled out. Heyman notes that if the Brewers are able to move Ryan Braun, they could look to reallocate some of those funds to locking up Lucroy, who is more open to an extension now that the Brewers are performing better than most pundits expected. There could, of course, be some level of gamesmanship there, as it would make sense for any team official to downplay a prime trade target’s availability.
  • The Padres are “open” to trading Wil Myers in the right scenario, says Heyman, but it still seems unlikely that’ll come to fruition. San Diego has received hits on Jon Jay and Derek Norris, though, and presumably the organization is more willing to part with those players.
  • There was talk of the Tigers pursuing Chris Davis over the winter, and Heyman says that was indeed the case. The club was considering an offer in the $180MM range for the slugger, per the report. Owner Mike Ilitch also pushed for Yoenis Cespedes over Justin Upton, but the club elected to grab the younger player. That choice is certainly up for debate after their respective starts.
  • The Phillies are obvious sellers, but most of their marketable assets reside on the pitching side of the equation. But the club sees infielder Andres Blanco as a plausible piece, with Freddy Galvis also potentially on the block. Blanco isn’t quite repeating his surprising 2015 season, but is hitting at around the league average rate and could be a useful utility piece.
  • With continued uncertainty surrounding Felix Hernandez, the Mariners are likely to explore the rotation market this summer. The club has received a nice boost from James Paxton of late, but many of its starters have long-term injury questions so it isn’t surprising to hear that the club is readying for an addition in that area.
  • Heyman also floats the idea that the Nationals could dangle top position player prospect Trea Turner in trade talks this summer. He wonders whether he could be the chip that lands a top-end reliever, citing Yankees hurler Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. From my perspective, that would be rather surprising: Turner has shown himself ready for a full crack at the big leagues and is widely considered one of the game’s twenty best prospects. Even if the Nats don’t make him the starter in 2016, he’s a critical part of the team’s middle infield depth right now and an important future piece.
  • Veteran outfielder Shane Victorino has rejected several opportunities to join teams on minor-league deals, says Heyman. Victorino is holding out for a shot to join a big league roster.

AL East Notes: Swisher, Lohse, Davis, Rays

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Nick Swisher spoke to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News about his excitement over rejoining the Yankees organization. “There’s no place I love more than New York,” said Swisher. “I think a lot of people know that. … I’m one of those lucky guys that gets an opportunity to come back and try to prove myself again.” Swisher also talked with Feinsand about the difficulty of dealing with significant knee injuries in recent seasons and the jarring feeling of getting a phone call to inform him of his release in Atlanta. The 34-year-old firmly believes he’s capable of contributing in the Majors again and looks forward to working his way back to a Yankees uniform. “To have the first phone call come from the Yankees, a place you think of as family, it was amazing,” said Swisher. “For this to happen during such a dark time, it makes you want to work that much harder, to train and play that much harder.”

Elsewhere in the AL East…

  • The Orioles are among the clubs that hold interest in right-hander Kyle Lohse, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network. Baltimore’s 7-0 start to the season has drawn its fair share of headlines, but it’s worth noting that Ubaldo Jimenez is the only one of their starters to have topped five innings in an outing thus far. Bringing Lohse into the organization would provide the club with some veteran depth, although Lohse’s most recent work with the Brewers didn’t exactly inspire confidence that he’s still a quality big league option. The 37-year-old lost his rotation with the Brewers last season after recording a 6.31 ERA in 22 starts. Lohse did appear to turn it around somewhat upon his move to the bullpen, logging a 3.81 ERA in 28 1/3 innings of work.
  • Chris Davis tells the Boston Herald’s Chris Mason that the Red Sox had interest in him over the winter before he re-signed in Baltimore. “I pretty much tried to stay out of it as much as I could and let my agent handle it, but I remember their name coming up a few times,” said Davis. “I don’t know how in depth they talked. I don’t know if it was just a feeler or what was going on.” As Mason notes, the immediate fit might not be optimal, but with Hanley Ramirez perhaps sliding to designated hitter next season following David Ortiz’s retirement, it’s easy enough to see how Davis could’ve fit into the club’s plans beyond the 2016 campaign.
  • Never afraid to try something outside the box, the Rays have adopted the usage of virtual reality training for their hitters, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Rays batters have available to them a set of virtual reality goggles that allow them to stand at/near/behind the plate in the batting cage and watch a virtual simulation of that evening’s pitcher throwing to them. Steven Souza Jr. and Curt Casali both spoke very highly of the new tool, whereas Evan Longoria was optimistic about its benefits down the line but said he feels there’s room for improvement. “We’re looking forward to learning more about the technology and how it might benefit our players,” said Rays president of baseball operations Matt Silverman to Topkin. Topkin notes that the Rays aren’t the only club using the technology; the Pirates and “several” other teams have begun to experiment with it.
  • Rays right-hander Alex Cobb and Chase Whitley each made 20 throws from halfway up the bullpen mound on Tuesday, Topkin writes in a separate piece. Each will throw again on Friday and next Tuesday before moving to the top of the mound late next week. Cobb noted that while the news isn’t exciting, he and Whitley both considered it to be a big day in their rehab. Both right-handers are making their way back from Tommy John surgery that was performed in May of last season.

AL East Notes: Ramirez, Navarro, Rays, Cashman

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Ramon Ramirez, an infield prospect in the Orioles system, died in a motorcycle accident on Saturday in the Dominican Republic.  The 23-year-old Ramirez signed with the O’s in 2014 and played second, third and shortstop in 55 games at the Rookie League and low- and high-A ball levels over the last two seasons.  “Our entire organization is deeply saddened by the sudden and tragic death of Ramon Ramirez. As a member of the Orioles organization, Ramon worked tirelessly to make the most of his opportunity to play professional baseball. Our thoughts are with his family, friends, teammates, and coaches as we mourn this unimaginable loss,” Orioles executive VP Dan Duquette said in a statement today.  We at MLB Trade Rumors join the Orioles and the baseball world in expressing our condolences to Ramirez’s loved ones.

Some news from around the AL East…

  • The Orioles’ acquisition of first baseman/outfielder Efren Navarro adds some depth and gives Baltimore some roster flexibility, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes.  With Navarro now in the mix as a first base backup behind Chris Davis, the O’s could use young first basemen Christian Walker or Trey Mancini as trade chips.  Since Navarro is a well-regarded defender at first, Kubatko also wonders if Davis could see more time in the outfield.  Davis said he’s “always open to doing whatever it takes to win,” though noted that he’s much more comfortable in right field than left.
  • Now that the Rays have traded Jake McGee, their next move could be to acquire a replacement setup man, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  Alex Colome and Xavier Cedeno form a righty-lefty setup combo at the moment, though Topkin thinks the Rays could sign another veteran bullpen option (though not a big name like Tyler Clippard) or potentially trade for a reliever by dealing from their outfield surplus.  Brandon Guyer or Desmond Jennings could be trade chips in that scenario, Topkin opines, though interested teams may need to see that Jennings is healthy in Spring Training following his injury-plagued 2015 season.  The Rays still aren’t generating any trade buzz on James Loney, despite their willingness to cover part of his salary.
  • The only team yet to sign a Major League free agent this offseason has been, of all teams, the Yankees.  While GM Brian Cashman tells Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News that the club “explored all avenues” to upgrade the roster, the Bronx Bombers have been much more focused on trades rather than free agent signings over the last two offseasons.  This winter, such major names as Aroldis Chapman, Starlin Castro and Aaron Hicks joined the team.  “There’s a lot of different ways to climb the mountain. This winter took us to trades. We spent money, but it was acquiring contracts through trades. We’ve traded talent from our system to do that,” Cashman said.
  • There’s little question that Blue Jays fans want Jose Bautista to sign an extension, as evidenced by a very pro-Bautista response at a recent “Pitch Talks” speaker series event in Toronto.  FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, one of the speakers at the event, used the response to illustrate the sometimes stark difference in perspective between fans and front offices.  While there are solid baseball reasons to keep Bautista (as outlined by Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling at the event), general front office logic would dictate that extending a veteran slugger past his age-35 season isn’t necessarily a wise move.  While many fans understand this reasoning, that doesn’t stop the more general sentiment amongst the fanbase that the Jays should keep a player who has been such a huge star for the franchise.  I outlined the tricky situation the Jays face with Bautista in an Extension Candidate entry last November.

Orioles Re-Sign Chris Davis

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It took a team record, as expected, but the Orioles have officially re-signed Chris Davis to a seven-year deal. The Scott Boras client will reportedly receive $161MM over that span, though there’s more to it than adding up the annual salaries.

Davis will receive $17MM per season over the life of the contract. He will then receive $3.5MM a year from 2023 through 2032, then $1.4MM a year from 2033 through 2037. And there will be no interest on that $42MM total in deferred money.

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The length of the deferrals in Davis’ contract is unusual, calling to mind the Mets’ 25 years in deferred payments to former star Bobby Bonilla. Obviously, though, their effect is that they reduce the present-day value of Davis’ contract, even though he will, in fact, receive a total of $161MM.

There’s other value in the deal for Davis, though. He doesn’t gain an opt-out opportunity, but will pick up a partial no-trade clause. And as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale notes (via Twitter), Davis could also receive a large tax break on the deferred $42MM since Texas is one of seven states without an income tax. (Of course, it’s impossible to predict if that will persist through 2037 or even if Davis will continue living in Texas.)

The deal represents a huge investment for the Orioles — as CSNmidatlantic.com’s Rich Dubroff notes, it’s almost twice as large as the team’s largest previous commitment to a single player (Adam Jones’ current $85.5MM contract). It’s also the fourth-largest contract handed out this offseason, behind those of David Price, Zack Greinke and Jason Heyward. As Rosenthal notes, the $23MM average annual value of Davis’ deal matches Heyward’s, although Heyward received an extra guaranteed year and an opt-out.

Out of context, that Davis would receive such a lucrative deal is perhaps not so surprising. In November, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked Davis the fifth best free agent available this offseason, behind those three players and Justin Upton, who remains unsigned. But the Orioles had previously reportedly offered Davis a $150MM deal, and there had been few or no indicators that other teams were serious suitors for Davis. Late this week, it emerged that the Orioles had offered another top free agent bat, Yoenis Cespedes, a five-year deal worth around $90MM. That offer might have helped motivate Davis’ camp to hammer out a deal with the O’s, and given the circumstances, perhaps it’s a bit surprising Davis was able to get significantly more than the team had reportedly previously offered.

In agreeing to terms with Davis, the Orioles will, of course, be retaining one of the game’s most prolific power hitters, and one who, at age 29, could have many productive seasons left. Davis has led the AL in home runs in two of the last three seasons, and his 126 homers over those three years are a tremendous total in an era largely dominated by pitchers. Davis does have his drawbacks as a hitter, and those will be worth watching as his contract progresses — he’s always struck out frequently, but in 2015 he topped himself by whiffing 208 times (although he did actually reduce his strikeout rate from 33.0% in 2014 to 31%). He has generally been able to keep his batting averages at reasonable levels despite his very high whiff rates, mostly because he hits nearly everything hard — his hard contact percentage last year was fourth among MLB hitters, behind only J.D. Martinez, David Ortiz and Matt Kemp. But some big sluggers with high strikeout rates have struggled as they’ve aged, with Ryan Howard as a prime example. Davis’ new contract will carry him through his age-36 season, the same age Howard is now.

Davis is a better and more versatile defender than Howard was, though, insuring him somewhat against a precipitous decline. (In addition to his work at first base, Davis fared reasonably well in 30 games in right field last season, and he’s played a bit of third in the recent past.) And for the time being, Davis is a tremendously valuable part of the Orioles’ lineup. The O’s were -34 runs last season in FanGraphs’ Offensive Runs Above Average statistic; that total would have been scarily low were it not for Davis and Manny Machado, who combined for about 65 runs above average between them. Davis ranked first on the Orioles in home runs, RBI, walk rate, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Davis’ deal makes Upton and Cespedes the clear best hitters remaining on the free agent market, and could help clear the way for Upton and Cespedes to find deals of their own. A report from earlier this week had indicated that the impasse between Davis and the Orioles was stunting the development of the rest of the top of the market for power bats.

At the beginning of the offseason, Davis rejected the Orioles’ qualifying offer. Because they re-signed him, they will not receive a draft pick as compensation.

Jon Heyman reported the agreement, as well as its length and total guarantee (Twitter links). ESPN’s Buster Olney detailed the deferrals (on Twitter) that FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal first reported (Twitter links). Rosenthal (in a tweet) and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (via Twitter) added other details.

 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Central Notes: Upton, Tigers, Cespedes, Buxton, Abad

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Lynn Henning of the Detroit News breaks down the series of events that led to the Tigers’ signing of Justin Upton to a six-year, $132.75MM contract today. As Henning notes, owner Mike Ilitch went into the club’s annual offseason holiday break with some reservations about the concept of a Cameron Maybin/Tyler Collins platoon in left field. By the time Tigers’ brass returned to their offices, Ilitch was committed to signing one of Upton, Yoenis Cespedes or Alex Gordon to upgrade in left field. Tigers scouts and analysts went to work on making as informed a decision as possible, and GM Al Avila consulted with assistant Alan Trammel and Tigers broadcaster Kirk Gibson about their personal experiences with Upton from the trio’s days together in Arizona. Henning notes that Detroit also considered Chris Davis, as Jon Heyman reported, but ultimately concerns over his ability to handle left field at Comerica Park eliminated him from the fold. Upton’s age and superior on-base percentage appear to have been focal points in the decision, though Henning notes that Cespedes was under serious consideration until last week. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweeted the same yesterday, noting that Detroit negotiated with both Upton and Cespedes simultaneously before deciding on Upton.

Here’s more from the AL Central…

  • Upton’s agent, Larry Reynolds, said at today’s press conference that they offered the Tigers a pair of scenario’s: a longer-term deal without an opt-out clause and the six-year deal with a two-year opt-out that Upton ultimately signed (links to Twitter via MLB.com’s Jason Beck). Reynolds adds that Upton didn’t sign with Detroit to be a Tiger for only two years, stating, “Justin’s been on enough teams.” Of course, if Upton enjoys two healthy and productive seasons in Detroit in 2016-17, it’d be a surprise if he didn’t again test the open market in advance of his age-30 season.
  • The Tigers might not yet be done adding pieces, Beck tweets. At today’s press conference, Avila told reporters, “I’d still like to have more depth in pitching. We’re adequate right now.” An addition to the rotation seems unlikely, at least on a Major League deal, though the team could reasonably pursue some depth on a minor league deal or look to add one more piece to the bullpen mix.
  • The White Sox remain interested in Yoenis Cespedes, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link), but their stance has not changed since their initially reported interest. Per Nightengale, the ChiSox are still unwilling to exceed a three-year term in their pursuit of Cespedes. A short-term deal for Cespedes still strikes me as an unlikely scenario.
  • The Twins’ trade of Aaron Hicks this winter caught Byron Buxton off guard, the top prospect tells MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. The trade was somewhat bittersweet for Buxton, Bollinger writes, as he lost one of his best friends on the team but also received a clear-cut message that the center field job was his for the taking. Buxton says he made some adjustments late in the season, and the numbers bear that out, as Bollinger notes, pointing out his .273/.314/.515 batting line in his final 20 games. Manager Paul Molitor tells Bollinger that the organization’s hope is that Buxton is ready to take the reins in center field and run with it, though as Bollinger writes, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler and Danny Santana all have some experience in center field should Buxton struggle.
  • La Velle E. Neal of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that Twins scouts believe left-hander Fernando Abad was tipping his pitches last season, which resulted in the veteran’s struggles. The Twins believe they can correct the issue, per Neal, which would give Abad a shot to break camp with the club. Minnesota signed the 30-year-old to a minor league deal earlier this offseason. Abad posted a 4.15 ERA with Oakland last season but had recorded a 2.27 ERA across 95 innings in the two seasons prior.
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