AL Notes: Sale, Mariners, Gordon
Let’s check in on a few notes from the American League:
- Red Sox ace Chris Sale finished the 2019 season on the injured list with inflammation in his throwing elbow. However, there’s “no doubt” he’ll be ready for spring training, he told reporters (including Adam Fisher of the Fort Myers News-Press). Sale was cleared to begin throwing last week, and he offered a few details on his offseason program yesterday. Currently, Sale is throwing three times a week, he said, and he plans to up his workload soon before moving to long-toss and, eventually, mound work. Sale’s peripherals were dominant again last season, but his 147.1 innings of 4.40 ERA ball no doubt made for some disappointing results. The Sox will be hoping for more typical bottom line numbers from the star southpaw in 2020.
- The Mariners don’t plan on making any noteworthy additions on the position player side in free agency, GM Jerry Dipoto indicated to reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). “We have very likely the position player club you are looking at right now, barring the potential for a trade, which is always possible,” Dipoto said. While Dipoto didn’t mention any specific trade possibilities, Divish notes the organization would like to find a taker for Dee Gordon to open second base up full-time for Shed Long. Doing so, though, would be a difficult task, with Gordon due $13.8MM in 2020 and coming off back-to-back disappointing seasons.
- Nevertheless, the Mariners could be in line for some modest upgrades on the pitching staff, Dipoto suggested to Divish in the same piece. “We do have some ongoing conversations with potential free-agent additions,” Dipoto said, presumably referring to pitching upgrades given his declaration that the position player grouping was largely set. Dipoto added that any acquisitions are likely to be flyers on bounceback players, in a similar vein to the club’s earlier signings of Carl Edwards, Jr. and Kendall Graveman. Speculatively speaking, players like Michael Wacha, Blake Treinen, or Pedro Strop all have strong track records but are coming off disappointing 2019 seasons. All three figure to command a higher guarantee than was necessary to bring in Edwards ($950K) or Graveman ($2MM), though.
Chris Sale Cleared To Begin Throwing
Red Sox ace Chris Sale has been cleared to begin throwing again after a visit with Dr. James Andrews, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI Radio. The goal is for Sale to be a full go for Spring Training in a few short months. Sale’s latest visit to the physician comes as a follow-up to an August appointment in which Sale received a platelet-rich plasma injection.
The Red Sox had originally expected to have their star lefty re-evaluated six weeks after the fact, but their early departure from the playoff picture allowed them to play it slow when it became apparent that Sale wouldn’t be needed in October. So the prolonged timeline is not reflective of Sale’s progress; assistant GM Brian O’Halloran said that “the rehab has gone very well and Chris is exactly where we want him to be.”
Sale missed all of September and much of August after encountering problems with his throwing elbow, landing on the injured list after experiencing inflammation in the wake of an August 13 start.
Even when he was healthy, Sale wasn’t himself, finishing the season with a 4.40 ERA, the worst mark of his career. His peripheral numbers were more in line with his career norms, but that did little to mitigate concerns about diminished fastball velocity. Luckily, it seems that Sale’s early-season dip in velocity was unconnected to the elbow injury, which is believed to have surfaced in August.
Still, any unanswered questions will be magnified by Sale’s hefty price tag, with a five-year contract extension worth $145MM taking effect in 2020, when Sale will earn $30MM. He’ll earn similar salaries through his age-35 season. From a financial perspective, Sale’s injury concerns could hardly have come at a worse time, but it seems there’s hope that Sale’s 2019 injuries won’t linger into the offseason and beyond. He didn’t suffer any ligament damage, and today’s update should inspire some optimism that Sale will once again be a stalwart in the Boston rotation and return to the Cy Young form that he maintained for the better part of a decade.
GM Meetings Notes: Mets, White Sox, Red Sox
The Mets have about $20MM to spend to stay under the luxury tax, and though they haven’t ruled out going over for a season, history suggests otherwise, writes MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. The rotation is largely set with Cy Young Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, and Steven Matz locked into the top four spots. Despite the rumblings, GM Brodie Van Wagenen has been adamant about Syndergaard staying put, and as for the fifth rotation spot, relievers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman are very real candidates. Free agent upgrades are more likely to bolster the bullpen, which is already a man down if Lugo or Gsellman jump to the rotation. Of course, the best upgrade they could hope for would come in the form of a bounceback season from closer Edwin Diaz. Diaz is putting in extra work this winter in Puerto Rico, and for what it’s worth, new manager and fellow Puerto Rican Carlos Beltran “considers mentoring Diaz one of his top priorities.” Here are some more notes coming out of the GM meetings…
- White Sox GM Rick Hahn attempted to temper expectations before projecting bloated win totals for his club in 2020, per the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan. It’s an exciting time nonetheless for those on the south side of Chicago, with high-end youngsters Nick Madrigal, Luis Robert, and Michael Kopech expected to establish themselves as big leaguers. They have money to spend on pitching or an outfielder, and a tough decision to make on newly-minted gold glover Yolmer Sanchez. Madrigal is likely to unseat Sanchez from his regular role at second, and with Sanchez due to make roughly $6.2MM through arbitration, he’s definitely a possible non-tender. The Sox love him from a character perspective and aren’t eager to kick him curbside, but even with his new hardware in tow, $6.2MM after a .252/.318/.321 season is probably a touch too rich for the ChiSox.
- The Red Sox are facing a different kind of offseason under the leadership of Chaim Bloom, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Scaling back the payroll is objective A, and the Red Sox are active in trade discussions around just about everyone on the roster. The media has Mookie Betts as the fulcrum of Boston’s trade activity, but he’s expensive on a one-year deal and unlikely to sign an extension, mitigating any trade return and making a deal unlikely. It’s more likely the Red Sox find their desired breathing room by trading from their rotation: David Price, Chris Sale, and/or Nathan Eovaldi. Meanwhile, discussions with free agents are largely on the backburner as they look for creative ways to free up space in the payroll.
Red Sox Announce Series Of 40-Man Moves
According to an official team release, the Red Sox are tinkering with the 40-man roster to make room for a number of September call-ups. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com has the rundown on all the moves, which include the activation of left-hander David Price from the injured list. Newly-signed righty Jhoulys Chacin, catcher Juan Centeno, and outfielder Gorkys Hernandez have all been added to the 40-man roster. To make space for the above trio, injured pitchers Chris Sale and Steven Wright have been transferred to the 60-day injured list, while first baseman Joey Curletta was outrighted to Double-A.
Price last pitched for Boston in early August before a wrist issue forced him to the injured list—his second stint this season. As for much of his Red Sox tenure, it’s been a rocky year for Price, whose hefty contract looms in the face of good—not great—numbers.
Chacin, who yesterday inked a minor-league deal with Boston, will have a crack at the rotation as he seeks to redeem himself from a disappointing season in Milwaukee, which released him just a year removed from a stellar year. With the injury to Sale and many other options underperforming on the mound, Chacin represents a low-risk signee for a September audition.
Curletta has yet to make his big-league debut, and that milestone will have to wait a bit longer for the 25-year-old, a 2012 draftee of the Dodgers. He’ll remain with Double-A Portland though no longer on the Boston 40-man roster. He’s spent this season between the two levels of the upper minors, posting a combined .678 OPS with 14 home runs.
Centeno, 29, and Hernandez, 31, will each make their Red Sox debuts. Neither has appeared in the Major Leagues this season after inking minor-league contracts last winter. Centeno, who will offer depth beyond Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon, is the owner of a career .227/.278/.331 batting line, playing parts of six Major League seasons with the Mets, Brewers, Twins, Astros, and Rangers. Hernandez made a name for himself with the Giants, where he played the previous three seasons. In 2018, he enjoyed a career year as he was given regular playing time, posting a .676 OPS to go with 15 home runs.
Latest On Chris Sale
Chris Sale‘s visit with Dr. James Andrews on Monday didn’t reveal any ligament damage in the star left-hander’s throwing elbow, Sale told reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne) yesterday. For now, Sale will continue to rest following a platelet-rich plasma injection shot, and he’ll be re-evaluated in six weeks.
While any visit to Dr. Andrews is usually considered as an ominous sign by fans and pundits (and as a harbinger of possible Tommy John surgery), Sale described his diagnosis as “not great news, but about as good as we could get. We rest, I think maybe four to six weeks, get on a throwing program and get back to it.”
With the Red Sox sitting six games out of a wild card slot, postseason availability may be a moot point for the entire roster, though Sale in particular seems like a longshot for the playoff roster even if Boston does make a miracle run over the season’s final six weeks. It was already known that the PRP shot’s six-week recovery period would cost Sale the remainder of the regular season, and Sox manager Alex Cora told media that it would “probably…be almost impossible” for Sale to be ready to contribute in October.
This will mark the second straight year that Sale has been limited by a late-season injury, as shoulder issues limited him to just 17 innings from July 28, 2018 until the end of the 2018 regular season. It’s possible Sale could have pitched more if the Sox were in a pennant race rather than comfortably coasting to an AL East title, though even while cautiously deploying Sale during the playoff run, the lefty posted an uncharacteristically middling 4.11 ERA over 15 1/3 postseason innings.
All these injury questions loom large given that Sale’s five-year, $145MM extension with the team doesn’t begin until the start of the 2020 season. Sale fully expects to be ready for the start of the next season, though between Sale, David Price and Nathan Eovaldi, the Red Sox have $79MM in 2020 salary committed to three starters with checkered health histories.
Sale has a career-worst 4.40 ERA over 147 1/3 innings, though that ERA has largely been boosted by a career-high 19.5% home run rate. ERA predictors such as FIP (3.39), xFIP (2.94) and SIERA (3.00) paint a much more forgiving picture of the southpaw’s performance in 2019. His 13.32 K/9 is still elite, and Sale’s .283 xwOBA is in the 81st percentile of all pitchers. That said, Sale also has a 36% hard-hit ball rate, by far the highest of his career.
Chris Sale Out For Remainder Of Regular Season
5:17pm: The team update does have some bad news: Sale has received a platelet-rich plasma treatment and will be shut down for at least six weeks. He’ll be reevaluated at that time.
Whether there’s any possibility of Sale appearing in the postseason isn’t known. But with less than six weeks to go before the end of the regular season, it’s now certain he will not be able to help the club make a last-ditch run at sneaking into Wild Card position.
The update doesn’t fill in any blanks regarding the underlying issues in the joint. But given the course of treatment, it seems reasonable to presume that the medical team has identified something beyond inflammation alone.
4:04pm: If you’re a Red Sox fan, you may now safely exhale. Boston lefty Chris Sale will not require Tommy John surgery, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter link).
Precisely what is wrong with Sale’s elbow isn’t yet clear. But it seems that a visit to Dr. James Andrews did not reveal anything beyond the inflammation that initially sent the southpaw to the injured list.
We’ll keep updating the situation as further information emerges. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe notes (via Twitter) that the club is preparing to release a statement on the topic of Sale’s health.
Red Sox Place Chris Sale On 10-Day IL With Elbow Inflammation
6:37 pm: Ryan Brasier has been called up from Triple-A Pawtucket to fill Sale’s spot on the active roster, according to a report from the Boston Herald’s Steve Hewitt (link).
4:52 pm: It appears the issue may indeed be more serious than initially believed. Per President of Baseball Ops Dave Dombrowski (h/t to Bill Koch of the Providence Journal) the injury is “brand new” and the team will seek a second opinion from renowned surgeon Dr. James Andrews. No timetable has been set for Sale’s return.
4:34 pm: The Red Sox have placed lefty Chris Sale on the 10-Day IL with left elbow inflammation, the team reports.
The 30-year-old Sale’s performance has been much-maligned this season, though apart from his participation in the league-wide gopher-ball parade, his dominant stuff seems very well intact. Sale’s still setting down a league-best 13.32 per nine, walking a minuscule 2.26/9, and getting grounders at a league-average rate. His FIP is a full run lower than his 4.40 ERA, while his 2.94 xFIP (a metric that accounts for his career-worst 19.5% HR/FB) ranks second in the AL to Gerrit Cole.
In short, it’s still all there for Sale, provided the left-hander isn’t dealing with a more serious injury to his left elbow than initially believed. The Red Sox have fallen six and a half games behind Tampa in the team’s quest for a second wild card spot, so perhaps it’d be prudent to give the seven-time all-star all the rest he needs.
Health Notes: Moore, Karns, Padres, Red Sox
Here are the latest notes on some health situations from around the game …
- The Tigers and lefty Matt Moore are hopeful that he won’t need to undergo surgery after being diagnosed with a meniscus injury, Chris McCosky of the Detroit News was among those to report. Damage to the joint was diagnosed after Moore experienced some issues in his last outing. While a procedure on the meniscus wouldn’t likely be season-ending, it would make for a fairly lengthy absence. With rather mild symptoms, Moore suggests he’s optimistic he can instead rehab briefly and then pitch through the injury.
- Orioles righty Nate Karns has gone on the injured list with a forearm strain, the club announced. The severity isn’t know, but it’s obviously rather worrying to see another arm issue for a pitcher that has dealt with significant health issues in recent years. Reliever Evan Phillips, who was acquired in last year’s Kevin Gausman swap, has been called up to take the open roster spot. Phillips struggled in brief MLB action last year but had a nice showing this spring.
- The Padres announced last night that lefty Aaron Loup and outfielder Franchy Cordero were headed to the injured list. Infielder Luis Urias is taking one of the open roster spots, thus putting another top San Diego prospect at the MLB level, with southpaw reliever Brad Wieck occupying the other. As Jason Freund of the East Village Times explains, arm issues drove both IL placements. The severity isn’t known in either case, but Loup’s forearm strain and Cordero’s elbow strain each echo injuries that those players dealt with last year.
- Red Sox ace Chris Sale isn’t one for excuses, but skipper Alex Cora did offer up a possible explanation for Sale’s otherwise concerning recent velocity drop. The star lefty was dealing with illness in the run-up to his last start, which reduced his intra-start work and may also have affected him on gameday, Cora told reporters including Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (Twitter links). Sale’s velocity has trended back up in the first inning of today’s game, which is certainly a promising sign. There was also generally encouraging news for southpaw Brian Johnson, who was feared to have suffered a significant elbow injury. He’s actually just dealing with inflammation, so it seems reasonable to hope that a rest and rehab approach will allow him to get back to the mound in relatively short order.
Red Sox, Chris Sale Agree To Extension
TODAY, 1:43pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds (via Twitter) that Sale’s vesting option for 2025 will be exercised if Sale earns a top-10 finish in AL Cy Young voting in 2024 and does not finish the year on the IL.
SATURDAY, 8:12am: The Red Sox have officially announced Sale’s new contract.
FRIDAY, 9:01pm: Sale has passed his physical, Rosenthal tweets, so all that remains is for the contract to be announced. Sale will earn $30MM in each of the first three seasons of the deal, after which time he has the right to opt out of the remaining two seasons. Those campaigns are valued at $27.5MM, meaning Sale will be deciding on two years and $55MM versus a trip onto the open market.
There’s further upside in the deal as well, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter links). It includes a vesting option at a floating value (minimum $20MM) based upon games started. There are also Cy Young-based escalators in years 2021-24 and in the option year. Sale receives full no-trade protection beginning in the middle of the 2020 season.
There are competing reports on the accounting of the deal. Rosenthal and others say the deal will wrap in Sale’s preexisting 2019 salary, creating a readjustment of his luxury tax hit for the present season (and pushing the team into the highest level of penalties). That’s not the case, though, per Speier (Twitter link). He reports that the Boston organization will elect to keep the ’19 season separate, which will avoid immediate tax entanglements but increase the luxury tax hit over the new years of the deal, potentially leading to future luxury obligations.
2:30pm: The Red Sox and ace Chris Sale are closing in on a contract extension, as first reported by Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Sale, a client of Jet Sports Management, will receive $145MM over five seasons (2020-24) if he passes a physical, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (Twitter links).
Earlier this spring, both Sale and the Red Sox expressed mutual interest in working out a long-term arrangement that’d keep the left-hander, who is slated to become a free agent at season’s end, in Boston for the long term. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently broke down several possible scenarios when exploring what a Sale extension would cost the Sox.
Sale, 30 next week, has been among the game’s elite starters since moving to the rotation with the White Sox back in 2012. He’s made seven consecutive All-Star teams and registered six consecutive Top-5 finishes in American League Cy Young voting, though he’s somewhat incredibly never taken home a Cy Young trophy himself.
Since being traded to Boston in the 2016 blockbuster that sent Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz to Chicago, Sale has pitched to a brilliant 2.56 ERA while averaging 13.2 strikeouts and just 1.9 walks per nine innings pitched. That level of K/BB excellence is nothing new for Sale, who holds the all-time Major League records for both K/9 (10.88) and K/BB ratio (5.31) among pitchers with at least 1000 innings pitched.
Any extension for Sale would begin in his age-31 season — he’ll pitch the 2019 season at age 30 — and figures to come with as much as a 100 percent increase over this year’s $15MM salary. The length of the contract was surely a sticking point in negotiations between Sale and the Sox, given last season’s shoulder troubles that limited him to 158 regular-season innings. Beyond that, his age likely gives Boston some degree of pause, as teams have become increasingly reluctant to guarantee players — particularly pitchers — significant salaries into their late 30s.
The luxury tax also undoubtedly plays a factor in negotiations, as the Red Sox’ payroll currently carries about $240.8MM in annual values that count against the tax ledger (as MLBTR recently examined when highlighting the unlikelihood of a Craig Kimbrel reunion). Should the Sox cross the $246MM threshold, they’d move into the top bracket of luxury penalization, which would include a 75 percent tax on any dollars spent beyond that point and would also cause their top pick in the 2020 draft to be pushed back by 10 spots, though for the Sox, keeping Sale from testing the open market looks to have been deemed worth of incurring that level of penalization.
It’s still possible that the Sox manage to lessen the luxury hit, though; Boston is reportedly shopping catcher Sandy Leon and his $2.475MM salary, and trimming that off the books would lighten the sting in terms of luxury payments on a new contract for Sale. A theoretical $30MM annual value for Sale would effectively take his luxury hit from $15MM (his current one-year salary, as options are treated in the CBA) to $27.5MM (the five-year, $150MM term plus this year’s $15MM salary divided over a six-year span). That $12.5MM increase currently stands to put the Red Sox about $6.5MM over the top luxury line, so shedding Leon’s contract could ultimately leave Boston’s luxury commitments at about $250-251MM. That’s still a huge penalty, but they’d only be paying the 75 percent tax on about $4-5MM of expenditures in that scenario.
Sale is far from the lone key Red Sox player who is (or was) slated to hit the open market following the 2019 season, but given the luxury implications another extension would present, he may be the only one to sign a long-term deal. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts and right-hander Rick Porcello are also free agents following the 2019 campaign, while designated hitter J.D. Martinez has the ability to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his contract. Looking further down the line, reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts will become a free agent following the 2020 season, though Betts flatly stated this week that he doesn’t expect to sign an extension before free agency.
In the now likely event that a Sale extension is finalized, it would mark the 17th contract extension signed by a player this spring alone, including the sixth by a would-be free agent and the fifth worth greater than $100MM in total guarantees (as shown in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker). Players throughout the league have become frustrated with the slow pace of free agency and the lack of spending outside of the very top tiers of the free-agent market. Rather than test what has become a largely stagnant market, many players are simply opting into long-term arrangements with their current club, thus forgoing the stress and oft-disappointing outcomes free agency has presented over the past two years.
Chris Sale, Red Sox “Mutually Invested” In Extension Talks
Veteran southpaw Chris Sale discussed the possibility of reaching an extension with the Red Sox in an interesting chat with Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. The club has previously acknowledged some discussions, but Sale’s comments seemingly take things a bit further.
Sale suggests that there is a serious effort to work out an agreement.“I think we’re both mutually invested in this,” he said. “We’ve both said on both sides that it’s a possibility, for sure.”
He also indicated that he doesn’t consider a deal a necessity. “Obviously, this go-round is a little different than the last one with the contract situation,” Sale said in reference to his original contract extension. Sale says his family’s financial security was a driving force in that accord, but now affords him flexibility in deciding upon his next contract.
It’s still unclear what sort of structure is being considered — “we have a couple different scenarios,” Sale says — but the potential CBA tax impact will surely weigh heavily from the team’s perspective. It’s less clear just what will drive Sale when the time comes to make a final decision. While he indicates that he’s much more concerned with competing on the field than in the hot stove marketplace, he has previously made clear he does have a desire to “set the bar” for other players. Those looking to understand Sale’s perspective will certainly want to give Speier’s interview a full read.
[RELATED: Valuing A Chris Sale Extension]
It’ll be interesting to see where the sides land, if indeed a deal is hammered out. If not, Sale will enter the 2019 season as one of the most closely watched players on the planet. He paces a stacked group of starters in MLBTR’s initial power ranking of the top 2019-20 free agents.