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Craig Kimbrel

Craig Kimbrel To Join Cubs’ Triple-A Affiliate

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Cubs free-agent acquisition Craig Kimbrel is scheduled to join the Triple-A Iowa Cubs, tweets Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Since signing with his new club, Kimbrel had been working at the Cubs’ complex in Arizona, but will now travel to Sacramento for his first game action, which is slated for Tuesday, adds Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.

The 31-year-old Kimbrel, fresh off signing a 3-year, $43MM contract, has yet to appear in a professional game this season, but that will change this week, with the electric closer set to get some minor-league seasoning before he appears out of a Major League bullpen. While it doesn’t appear that Kimbrel will be in Chicago by the June 20 mark that was tentatively suggested by ESPN’s Jeff Passan, one would imagine that Kimbrel should be ready for big league competition before too long.

And the reinforcements couldn’t come too early for the Cubs, a team that has fielded a bullpen that as a whole has graded out as roughly average thus far. While the Cubs’ most pressing need might be left-handed relievers, Kimbrel will no doubt strengthen a unit that features just two players sporting a FIP below 4.00. As a team, the Cubs have blown 12 saves in 2019, and while saves are of course a flawed metric, the number is nonetheless indicative of the current unit’s lack of reliability.

On the flip side, for his career, Kimbrel’s FIP sits at an outlandish 1.96, placing him in the company of some of the game’s all-time great relief pitchers. And while last season gave way to some red flags—especially in the postseason—any bullpen would benefit from adding an arm like Kimbrel’s. Currently sitting in first place in the NL Central, the 39-31 Cubs will welcome the stability, debth, and experience that Kimbrel should provide.

As of now, reports that Kimbrel’s stuff has looked as good as ever in workouts are the only basis upon which to evaluate Kimbrel’s readiness, but the coming days will give scouts and fans alike their first look at Kimbrel’s dynamic stuff since last October. Needless to say, the intensity of game action—even in the minor leagues—is a far cry from the private showcases that Kimbrel conducted during his free agency, and a nearly eight-month hiatus from affiliated games will surely require some time to readjust to the grind of a Major-League season. With that in mind, though, the Cubs can look forward to the impending addition of an elite bullpen arm as the race for playoff position intensifies.

Cubs Sign Craig Kimbrel

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June 7, 6:44pm: The team has formally announced the contract.

Jon Heyman of MLB Network has further details. (Links to Twitter.) Games-finished escalators can boost the option buyout value from the $1MM base; Kimbrel can add another $1MM apiece by reach 53 games finished in 2020 and 2021. The option vests if Kimbrel finishes 110 total games between 2020 and 2021, at least 55 of which come in the latter season, and a doctor determines that he does not have a “non-temporary” injury (the details of which are surely defined in the contract).

Kimbrel also picks up no-trade protection. He can’t be dealt this season without his approval. He’ll have an eight-team no-trade list for the 2020 season. The deal does not provide any limitations thereafter.

9:11am: Kimbrel has passed his physical, per Heyman (Twitter links), and an introductory press conference is set to take place prior to today’s game.

June 5, 9:06PM: The deal pays Kimbrel $10MM this season, and $16MM in both 2020 and 2021, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  There is a vesting option for 2022 that pays Kimbrel $16MM if it vests, Heyman reports (via Twitter), while it becomes a club option if it doesn’t vest.  The buyout of the option year is $1MM.

Also from Passan, Kimbrel could potentially join the Cubs before June 20.  The closer “has been electric” in workouts in front of scouts.

8:21PM: Craig Kimbrel’s long wait in the free agent market is over.  The closer has agreed to a multi-year deal with the Cubs that will become official once Kimbrel passes a physical, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (links to Twitter).  Rosenthal originally reported the dollar figure as close to $45MM, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that Kimbrel will be paid $43MM (via Twitter) through the 2021 season.  Kimbrel is represented by SportsMeter.

Unsurprisingly, Kimbrel’s protracted time on the open market wrapped up shortly after the amateur draft.  Since Kimbrel turned down a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer from the Red Sox, any team that signed the veteran closer had to give up some type of compensation in the form of at least one draft pick, plus potentially international signing bonus money and even another pick depending on the identity of the team who landed Kimbrel.  However, this draft pick compensation no longer applied to Kimbrel (or fellow free agent holdout Dallas Keuchel) once draft day hit, removing one of the key hangups any interested team might have had about a signing.

As well, Kimbrel and his representatives aimed very high in their initial contract demands, reportedly looking for a nine-figure deal that would’ve set a new record for a free agent closer.  That said, it’s very common for free agents to hit the market with a big asking price as a starting point, yet Kimbrel’s market never seemed to really develop even as the offseason continued and his contract demands fell into the three-year range.

It could be that the market has simply shifted, and front offices are no willing to commit the type of long-term financial commitments (especially with draft and international market penalties involved) for free agent stoppers that were available to the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, or Mark Melancon just as recently as the 2016-17 offseason.  That said, it’s still a surprise to realize that over a third of the season elapsed before any club was willing to ink a player with as sterling a track record of ninth-inning success as Kimbrel.

With a career 1.91 ERA, 14.7 K/9, and 4.23 K/BB rate over nine seasons and 532 2/3 career innings, Kimbrel’s resume could very well eventually land him in Cooperstown down the road.  While 2018 wasn’t as dominant as some of his past years, Kimbrel still seemed to have a viable platform year with a 2.74 ERA, 13.86 K/9, and 3.10 K/BB over 62 1/3 frames for the World Series-champion Red Sox.

Beyond the surface numbers, however, there were some red flags.  It was hard to ignore Kimbrel’s increased struggles in the second half of last season, and then through Boston’s playoff run (a 5.91 ERA over 10 2/3 postseason innings).  Kimbrel has also had some control issues in two of the last three seasons, with a 4.48 BB/9 last year and a 5.09 BB/9 in 2016.  These issues could have been enough for teams to hesitate about guaranteeing five or six years to a pitcher in his 30’s (Kimbrel turned 31 in late May) when he was perhaps already showing some signs of slowing down.

Multiple teams were linked to Kimbrel’s market at various points over the last seven months, including several showing increased interest in the last couple of weeks as the draft (or, the qualifying offer expiration date) approached on June 3.  The Rays, Phillies, Braves, Brewers, Twins, Nationals, and Red Sox all had some degree of interest while Kimbrel was available.

While the Cubs always seemed like a good on-paper fit, they seemingly only emerged late in the game due to some unexpected luxury tax room opening up.  Ben Zobrist’s placement on the restricted list on May 8 means that his salary no longer counted towards Chicago’s luxury tax calculations, and if Zobrist misses the entire season (which seems increasingly likely at this juncture), the Cubs would have around $9MM to work with, money has seems to have fueled their push for Kimbrel.

Theo Epstein and company headed into the offseason with a need for bullpen help, with closer Brandon Morrow undergoing elbow surgery in November and still without a clear timetable to return.  Despite needs in the pen and elsewhere on the roster, however, the Cubs were very circumspect about their winter spending, due to a desire to stay under the maximum luxury tax threshold and team chairman Tom Ricketts’ controversial claim that “we don’t have any more” to spend.

Prior to the Kimbrel signing, Roster Resource projected the Cubs at just over $227.7MM in luxury tax payroll, putting the team in line for a 20% tax on every dollar spent above the $206MM luxury tax line, and then an additional 12% surtax for going more than $20MM over the line.  The average annual value of Kimbrel’s deal works out to $14.333MM per season, thus keeping the Cubs from exceeding the $246MM maximum penalty threshold.  Spending more than $246MM would cost the Cubs 62.5% surcharge on the overage, and their top draft pick in 2020 would be dropped by ten slots.

So it could be a win-win situation for Chicago, as the team looks to both avoid the top tax threshold while also getting a closer to bolster a bullpen that has generally been around the middle of the pack this season.  With Pedro Strop returning from the injured list and now Kimbrel’s addition, the Cubs suddenly have a much deeper pen to help them in their fight to win the NL Central.  Signing Kimbrel prior to June 3 would’ve cost the Cubs not only more money in salary, but also $500K in international bonus pool money and their second-highest pick in the 2019 draft (which ended up being the 64th overall selection).

For Kimbrel and his representatives, landing a multi-year contract represents some measure of a victory after the long wait, as several suitors were only interested in inking Kimbrel to a one-year deal for the remainder of the 2019 campaign.  While three years and $43MM is considerably less than Kimbrel expected at the start of the winter, the term isn’t far from four years/$70MM predicted by MLB Trade Rumors’ Top 50 Free Agents list back at the start of November, though nobody could’ve expected the wild path Kimbrel could take to eventually land his next contract.  If Kimbrel ends up pitching up to expectations, one suspects several teams will be kicking themselves over not signing Kimbrel when they had the chance.

The stopper is undoubtedly relieved to simply get his focus back on baseball, as he’ll now join a contender in pursuit of another World Series ring.  The question now is when Kimbrel will actually join the Cubs, as while he has been training on his own in preparation for the season, it remains to be seen how long it will take for him to ramp up to be ready for MLB hitters.  The other looming question could concern Kimbrel’s effectiveness, as other players whose qualifying offer-induced long waits in free agency (Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales in 2014) both struggled badly after sitting out months of the season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Twins Reportedly “Pushed Hard” For Craig Kimbrel

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The Twins “pushed hard” this week for closer Craig Kimbrel before he agreed to a three-year, $43MM contract with the Cubs on Wednesday, according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic (subscription link). Minnesota’s offer was “competitive,” but the team was only willing to give Kimbrel two years, Hayes reports.

The Twins had been after Kimbrel dating back to the offseason, per Hayes. At that point, as the Twins sought to upgrade last year’s underwhelming bullpen, they came away with a few inexpensive relief acquisitions in Blake Parker, Ryne Harper and Mike Morin. While the unheralded Harper and Morin have been shockingly effective across a combined 35 innings, Parker has begun to fade after an encouraging start. The ex-Angel boasted a 1.04 ERA entering play May 28, but it’s all the way up to 3.74 through 21 2/3 frames after he allowed at least two earned runs in three of his past four appearances. Parker also yielded four home runs in that four-inning stretch, during which his already below-average velocity fell. With a 5.84 FIP, 7.06 K/9 against 3.32 BB/9, and a 21.7 percent home run-to-fly ball rate, Parker doesn’t look like a strong candidate to break out of his slump in a significant way.

Not only has Parker been unreliable of late, but most of the Twins’ other top relievers are sporting less favorable fielding-independent pitching numbers than their ERAs indicate. With those factors in mind and Kimbrel off the market, the bullpen figures to remain one of the Twins’ highest priorities leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. Speculatively, Shane Greene (Tigers), Ken Giles (Blue Jays), Alex Colome (White Sox), Mychal Givens (Orioles), Will Smith and Tony Watson (Giants) are some of the league’s relief trade candidates who could land on the Twins’ radar over the next several weeks.

As shown by their interest in Kimbrel and starter Dallas Keuchel, who signed with the Braves on Thursday, Twins executives Derek Falvey and Thad Levine seem prepared to act aggressively this summer. Considering Minnesota’s an American League-best 41-20 and 10 1/2 games up in the AL Central, it’s no surprise management wants to boost the club’s World Series chances.

Rays Were Reportedly Runners Up For Craig Kimbrel

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While their offer wasn’t enough to get a deal done, the Rays evidently made a real effort to secure the services of veteran reliever Craig Kimbrel. Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the typically tight-fisted Tampa Bay organization was the runner-up in the bidding. (Subscription link.)

Kimbrel’s deal with the Cubs, which still isn’t official, goes for a reported three years and $43MM. He could instead have taken down $39MM from the Rays on a similar structure or instead gone for a two-year, $31MM offer from the Tampa Bay outfit.

Even though the ship has sailed on Kimbrel, this is certainly an interesting bit of information. The Rays obviously feel they can take on a rather significant additional salary this year and in the near future. Perhaps the star closer was something of a unique case, but it stands to reason that the club will also consider other opportunities at or approaching this price point.

Whether or not it takes money to make a move, it also seems the Rays can be counted on as a buyer of relief pitching at the deadline. That’s hardly a surprise, generally; the Rays are right in the thick of things in the AL East. Their relief unit has been good but could certainly stand to be improved. Plus, only one member of the current staff has more than three years of MLB service. In light of the aggressive stance on Kimbrel, the Rays now seem a favorite to put their well-stocked farm system to use in trade talks this summer.

Grade The Cubs’ Signing Of Craig Kimbrel

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It took some time, but one of the game’s greatest relief pitchers finally found a home with the Cubs after shedding the draft compensation that attached when he turned down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox. The Boston organization won’t get a draft pick for letting Craig Kimbrel walk, and the Chicago club won’t have to part with one. The Cubbies will, however, pay Kimbrel $10MM for his services down the stretch and $32MM for two more campaigns (along with a $1MM buyout or $16MM vesting/club option for another).

On the one hand, it’s notable that Kimbrel was still able to secure a significant, multi-year guarantee at this stage of the season. On the other … well, this still feels light. Entering the offseason, following some late-season stumbles from Kimbrel, we predicted $70MM over four years. That was stepped down from what might have been anticipated entering the 2019 campaign; after all, Kimbrel’s 2018 effort was among his most dominant. There were risks, sure, but that’s why we guessed a four instead of a five-year pact.

Kimbrel isn’t going to pitch for the Cubs for the entirety of this season, so there’s a reduction in price there. Even accounting for that, this contract still falls shy of the one the Rockies gave Wade Davis in the 2017-18 offseason. That three-year, $52MM pact (with a fourth-year vesting/club option) seemed like an obvious floor for Kimbrel. After all, Davis was an older pitcher who couldn’t match Kimbrel’s levels of dominance. And the Davis contract was signed even though it cost the Rox a second-round draft choice.

While it’s certainly hard to fault Kimbrel for preferring the best-available multi-year arrangement at this stage, he’s probably leaving some upside on the table by taking that route now rather than going for a pure rental agreement. It’s also still a significant commitment for a Cubs team that declared itself out of money over the winter but found some in the interim (in some part through an unusual situation with an expensive veteran). This isn’t a risk-free transaction; far from it, particularly given Kimbrel’s most recent on-field showing and the fact that he’ll be ramping up in the middle of an ongoing season.

How do you grade the signing from the team’s perspective?

(Poll link for app users.)

Braves Reportedly Not Among “Finalists” To Sign Kimbrel

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Though Atlanta fans have been vocal about their desire to see Craig Kimbrel suit up for the Braves once again, that appears decreasingly likely. The Braves have been loosely connected to Kimbrel throughout the year, but now that he’s free of draft compensation and expected to sign in the near future, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports (via Twitter) that the Braves aren’t among the “finalists” to sign the seven-time All-Star.

That comes on the heels of a morning report from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal which indicates that the Cubs are “pushing hard” to sign the right-hander. Kimbrel has also been recently connected to the Twins and Phillies.

The Braves’ bullpen need is rather acute, so it would appear that the team has simply decided that even without draft-pick forfeiture, Kimbrel’s asking price is too steep. He’s reportedly been seeking a three-year contract, and while the salary in the first year of such an arrangement would be prorated now that we’re a third of the way through the season, Kimbrel is surely seeking a hefty annual rate of pay all the same.

If Kimbrel ultimately lands in Chicago or elsewhere, the Cubs will quite likely look to the trade market to bolster what has been an injury-plagued and generally disappointing relief unit. Luke Jackson, thrice outrighted off the Braves’ 40-man roster last season, has been the club’s most consistent reliever for most of the season. Touki Toussaint is among the game’s most highly regarded starting pitching prospects but has thrived since moving into a relief role (albeit with a somewhat elevated walk rate). Sean Newcomb also looks sharp in a relief capacity, while Anthony Swarzak has been solid since his acquisition. Josh Tomlin, signed to a minor league deal in Spring Training, has been a durable source of multi-inning stints.

But while the Atlanta bullpen’s 4.31 ERA is 15th in the big leagues, the Braves’ 4.93 FIP ranks 26th and their 4.69 xFIP ranks 20th. Braves relievers have walked 11.7 percent of the hitters they’ve faced — the third-highest mark in the Majors. They’re also averaging 1.55 home runs per nine innings pitched, which ties them with the Nationals for the fourth-highest rate in the Majors. The Braves have been fortunate than more than half of the home runs allowed by their bullpen have come with the bases empty, but the combination of one of MLB’s highest walk rates and highest home-run rates isn’t a recipe for long-term success. With several clubs likely to sell off pieces this summer — the Giants, Blue Jays, Orioles, Royals and Tigers will have arms available — there’ll be plenty of options for Atlanta general manager Alex Anthopoulos to explore.

Cubs Making Push For Craig Kimbrel

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The Cubs are “pushing hard” to sign free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). He’d obviously be a much-needed upgrade for a Cubs ’pen that has been without closer Brandon Morrow all season and has endured numerous other injuries so far in 2019.

If a deal does indeed come to fruition, it’d represent a change of course for the Cubs, who spent the offseason making a series of small-scale additions due to ownership’s claim that the team simply didn’t have the resources to add to the team’s payroll. Kimbrel has been reported to be seeking a three-year pact, so it’s possible that the Cubs could backload a multi-year offer to ease up on the financial burden for the current season, but they’d still pay a 32 percent luxury tax on the average annual value of Kimbrel’s contract. The Cubs’ payroll already tops $213MM, and their luxury-tax payroll (calculated by the combined average annual values of all the contracts on the roster) checks in north of $227MM, per Roster Resources’ Jason Martinez.

Chicago recently welcomed Pedro Strop back from the injured list, and adding Kimbrel would be a second boon to the relief corps in a short period of time. Kimbrel won’t be ready to step directly into a game setting, of course, but he’s assuredly been throwing in preparation to join a team as soon as possible. In all likelihood, he’d build up over a relatively brief minor league stint and join his new team within a matter of weeks.

As soon as the calendar flipped from Sunday to Monday this week, Kimbrel and fellow free agent holdout Dallas Keuchel were freed from the burden of draft-pick compensation, so signing him would only cost the Cubs money at this point. He’s also been somewhat prominently connected to the Twins, although it’s quite arguable that the Cubs’ need is greater. Minnesota is enjoying a 10.5-game lead in the American League Central, whereas all four teams in the NL Central are within 5.5 games of the Cubs; the Brewers, in particular, are only a half game back of the Cubs in the standings.

The most common other suitors listed for Kimbrel have been in the NL East: the division-leading Phillies and Kimbrel’s original organization, the Braves. Philadelphia has reportedly only been interested in Kimbrel on a short-term deal, however (presumably, a one-year pact). As for the Braves, their interest in Kimbrel has clearly never aligned with the fanbase’s at times ravenous desire to see Kimbrel once again take the mound in Braves gear. The Atlanta faithful have gone so far as to audibly chant, “We want Kimbrel” during Braves games at SunTrust Park, but the front office has maintained a more measured approach to whatever interest it holds in bringing Kimbrel back to Georgia.

AL Central Notes: Kimbrel, Witt, Vaughn, Greene

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We’ve heard that the Twins are involved in the still-evolving market for free agent reliever Craig Kimbrel. But how aggressive will the Minnesota organization be and what will it take to make a deal? One unidentified source tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post that Kimbrel is seen as a “priority” for the Twins, though it’s tough to pin down the meaning of that phrase unless it’s coming straight from the top of the Minnesota front office. Notably, Kimbrel is said to have continued his quest for a multi-year deal into the summer. That approach promises to have major ramifications for his market, as it could both limit the field of suitors (some teams may only want a rental) and expand it (others may also shop for the future and see an opportunity to defer the money it will take to secure his services).

While the Twins are posing a challenge to the perennial front-running Indians, a few other teams from the division have been busy cashing in their consolation prizes from rough 2018 seasons …

  • The Royals did not hide their excitement at landing Bobby Witt Jr. with the second overall pick of the MLB Draft, as Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star writes. It’s easy to dream on top picks, but the Royals have done more than that. They’ve been waiting for this moment for quite some time. GM Dayton Moore says the club has been tracking Witt closely “since he was 14 years old,” calling it “an absolute honor and privilege to follow him and his career.” The high-end high school shortstop will look to follow his father in turning in a lengthy MLB career. Just how excited are the Royals? Moore: “It’s a great celebration in this organization today because we were able to select him. We knew a little over a year ago that this was a player that we were going to target. To see this day come has been very, very special for all of us.”
  • The White Sox now have a first baseman of the future in Andrew Vaughn, who went third overall. As Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Tribune writes, the club went with Vaughn on a pure talent assessment. But the fact that he’s quite possibly a quick-to-the-majors bat that suits the roster wasn’t lost on the team. Scouting director Nick Hostetler said of the selection: “the fact it might fill a void in the future here was an added bonus.”
  • And the Tigers were thrilled to find high school outfielder Riley Greene waiting for them at #5, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes. With ample rotation talent already filtering up the ranks of the Detroit farm, it’s no doubt gratifying for the club to find such a highly regarded position player in that spot. The youngster obviously isn’t even close to the MLB radar at this point, but he’ll immediately become a player to watch for the organization’s fans.

Twins Have Held Discussions With Craig Kimbrel, Dallas Keuchel

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The Twins have shown interest in both Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel, reports La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The organization is “believed” to hold more interest in Kimbrel than in Keuchel at the moment, but the Twins have spoken with both players’ representatives about potential deals.

Once the clock struck midnight last night, the draft-pick compensation tied to both pitchers expired, meaning the Twins (or any other club) can now sign either pitcher without forfeiting any future draft selections or international spending allocations. As we noted late last week, Minnesota was one of the most logical landing spots for Kimbrel, and the fact that the Twins took the final three games of a four-game road set against the Rays should only serve to further embolden the front office.

Twins relievers rank 20th in the Majors with a 4.60 ERA in 2019, and while their 4.05 FIP (ninth-best) and 4.25 xFIP (11th) paint a more optimistic pitcher, the relief corps is top-heavy. Lefty Taylor Rogers has continued last year’s summer breakout with a brilliant start to the season, while Trevor May and 30-year-old rookie Ryne Harper have each been effective as well. Offseason signee Blake Parker has posted a strong 2.61 ERA, but his K/BB numbers and velocity have gone in the wrong direction while fielding-independent metrics forecast substantial regression. Righties Matt Magill, Tyler Duffey and Mike Morin have all been effective in smaller samples, with Magill and Duffey in particular posting encouraging strikeout numbers.

But the Twins have cycled through numerous options in the final couple spots of their ’pen, receiving poor results from Chase De Jong, Andrew Vasquez, Zack Littell, Austin Adams, Adalberto Mejia and Trevor Hildenberger. High hopes were held for former top prospect Fernando Romero as he moved from a starting role to the ’pen, but he’s struggled in both the Majors and in 19 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball. Adding Kimbrel would ideally help slow that revolving door for the final couple of bullpen spots and deepen the team’s relief mix for what looks like an increasingly likely ALDS run.

There’s certainly an argument to be made in favor of signing Keuchel, as well. The Twins have received terrific results from their top four starters, as each of Jake Odorizzi, Jose Berrios, Martin Perez and Kyle Gibson  have posted ERAs and FIPs south of 4.00. Michael Pineda has struggled as the fifth starter in his return from Tommy John surgery and is currently on the injured list. He’ll need to have his innings limited anyhow, and moving him to the bullpen could net some interesting results. He’s held opponents to a .237/.283/.419 line the first time through the order and would likely see his 92.1 mph average fastball play up in shorter stints. Keuchel isn’t the ace he was when he won the AL Cy Young Award in 2015, but he’d be an upgrade over Pineda and, if Pineda takes to a bullpen role, could help to solidify both the starting pitching and relief pitching for the Twins.

It’s not a foregone conclusion that the Twins will actually sign either pitcher, but back in January, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine spoke of supplementing the team’s core when its window was “wide open.” With an 11.5-game lead in the American League Central and a 94 percent chance to take the division, per the odds at both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus, that would certainly appear to describe the current situation in Minnesota.

From a payroll vantage point, the Twins opened the 2018 season with a payroll just under $129MM but trimmed close to $10MM off that sum to begin the 2019 season. Signing either Kimbrel or Keuchel would quite likely push the Twins into franchise-record payroll territory, though attendance at Target Field has unsurprisingly been on the rise as the Twins have widened their division lead over the past month. There’s no indication that the team is facing any payroll constrictions, and Levine said in recent MLB Network appearance with Chris Russo (video link) that owner Jim Pohlad is “completely supportive of augmenting this team” over the course of the summer.

Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel No Longer Attached To Draft Pick Compensation

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It is officially draft day in Major League Baseball, and as the clock has struck midnight on the east coast, it also means that teams can sign free agents who rejected the qualifying offer without having to surrender the draft pick compensation usually attached to QO picks.  Thus, after months of speculation, Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel have been one of their chief obstacles to a new contract fall by the wayside.

While several players have seen their free agent markets impacted by the qualifying offer over the QO’s seven offseasons of existence, Keuchel and Kimbrel join Kendrys Morales as the only players to escape the qualifying offer’s draft penalties by simply waiting out the draft itself to sign new contracts.  Stephen Drew’s free agent visit also extended into the 2014 season, though he ultimately re-signed with the Red Sox before the draft.

Of course, waiting this long to sign has the obvious drawback of inactivity.  The two pitchers have now given up over two months of their careers and a proper Spring Training camp, though Keuchel and Kimbrel have both been working in preparation to eventually get on the field, Keuchel and Kimbrel will have to ramp up their activity without the benefit of a proper Spring Training camp.  According to Keuchel’s agent Scott Boras, the southpaw will be ready to join his new team about a week after signing, which seems like a somewhat optimistic projection.  It’s worth noting that Morales and Drew both struggled badly in their abbreviated 2014 seasons, and we’ve seen several other examples (i.e. Greg Holland last season) of how players with QO-induced extended layoffs can struggle without the benefit of a proper offseason.

As a reminder, here is what each team would have had to give up in terms of compensation had they signed Keuchel or Kimbrel at any point in the last seven months.  The large majority of teams would have had to give up just one draft selection (either their second-highest or third-highest pick), and the 12 clubs who didn’t exceed the luxury tax or receive revenue-sharing payments would have also had to surrender $500K in international bonus pool money.  The Nationals and Red Sox were the only two teams who did surpass the luxury tax threshold in 2018, and thus would have had to give up their second- and fifth-highest picks plus $1MM in international bonus pool money.  (This only applies to Boston in regards to Keuchel, as the Sox obviously could have re-signed Kimbrel with no penalty since he was most recently on their team.)

The Red Sox and Astros are further impacted, as the two clubs will now no longer receive the extra picks that would have been owed to them had Kimbrel and Keuchel indeed signed elsewhere.  Since they paid into the luxury tax, the Red Sox would have only received a pick between the fourth and fifth rounds, while Houston would have received a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round.  While the current draft order would have been altered in this scenario depending on what team gave up their pick to sign Keuchel, the Astros would have had either the 78th or 79th overall pick if Keuchel had indeed landed on another team.

Rather than discussing how Keuchel would impact a new rotation, or how Kimbrel would shore up the back of a contending team’s bullpen, the two pitchers instead became the poster children for the increasing lack of action in baseball’s free agent market.  With modern front offices putting so much value on possessing a young player (either a draft pick or an international signing) through six or as many as seven seasons pre-free agency, as well as an increased wariness in how veteran players decline in their 30’s, teams are simply loathe to give up draft capital and/or spend money on established free agents, even noted stars like Keuchel and Kimbrel.

In fairness to teams, the qualifying offer draft compensation wasn’t the only reason both pitchers are still available as the calendar turned to June.  There were legitimate baseball reasons to hold off on spending huge money on either player — Keuchel’s grounder-heavy arsenal and lack of a power fastball might not age well, while Kimbrel looked shaky down the stretch and throughout Boston’s postseason run in 2018.

Keuchel and Boras were looking for at least a five-year contract, while Kimbrel entered the offseason hoping for what would have been a record-setting $100MM+ contract for a closer.  Both those sky-high initial asking prices have since been lowered, as Kimbrel was said to be looking for a three-year deal in early April, while Kimbrel was reportedly open to a one-year contract worth more than the value of the $17.9MM qualifying offer he turned down from Houston.  MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, however, notes that such a prorated one-year offer isn’t being considered by either Keuchel or Kimbrel, as “both would be signed” if they were willing to settle for such contracts.

With the draft pick hurdle now cleared and over a third of the season gone, it remains to be seen exactly what type of contracts Keuchel and Kimbrel will end up signing.  A one-year pact would have allowed either pitcher to test free agency again this winter without the qualifying offer, though that scenario might not be appealing if the shortened season does lead to a downturn in performance.  At the same time, it’s rather hard to imagine teams extended multi-year guarantees given the circumstances.

As odd as it sounds after seven months of inaction, but Keuchel and Kimbrel now aim to be hot commodities for a wide range of teams looking for rotation or bullpen help.  The Braves, Brewers, and Rays have each had interest in both pitchers, with Atlanta, St. Louis and the Yankees considered “favorites” for Keuchel, as per Heyman, and such teams as the Mets, Diamondbacks, and Twins have also been mentioned as possible candidates to sign Keuchel.  For Kimbrel, the Phillies and Cubs are known to have some level of interest in the closer.  A signing could some relatively quickly, or Keuchel and Kimbrel may still take a bit more time to properly sort through the offers coming their way.

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