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Craig Kimbrel

Revisiting The Best Fits For Craig Kimbrel

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With the draft just a few days away, it’s likely that free agents Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel will (finally) come off the board in the near future. Once the calendar flips from June 2 to June 3, clubs will no longer be forced to surrender a draft pick to sign either former All-Star.

Heading into the season and even early in the year, we looked at plenty of potential landing spots for both. But as the draft inched closer and the two remained unsigned, it became increasingly clear that they could try their hand at the 2014 Kendrys Morales gambit and sit out into June in order to open their market.

Now, not only are Kimbrel and Keuchel once again a relevant topic — they’re met with different markets than they encountered during Spring Training. With a third of the season in the books, teams have a better understanding of how they fit into their divisional and Wild Card landscapes. Injuries have altered the construction of rosters throughout the league. Some fits still make sense, just as much if not more than they did two or three months ago, but that’s not the case across the board. Trade possibilities are also beginning to take shape, creating new and different competition for these hurlers.

Let’s take a look at the most plausible on-paper fits for Kimbrel:

Teams with obvious offseason payroll limitations

The Pirates are in the mix in the NL Central, but I don’t think I need to expand upon the reasons that we won’t be seeing a free agent reliever with Kimbrel’s anticipated price tag land in Pittsburgh. The Indians are trying to claw back into the AL Central race and are right in the thick of the Wild Card picture, but they spent the winter cutting payroll. Kimbrel won’t be in the cards.

The Cubs could clearly use Kimbrel, but their offseason payroll constraints were clear. Maybe they saved some money for in-season moves, but it’s rare to dig through the couch cushions for change and pull out a hundred dollar bill. We’re barely three months past owner Tom Ricketts declaring he had no more money to spend, and even if the Cubs aren’t paying Ben Zobrist’s full salary (which isn’t fully clear), they’re near the second luxury tax bracket. From a roster perspective, the Cubs are a perfect fit, but it’d require a pretty sizable pivot from ownership.

May be close to their payroll limit

Back in the offseason I delved into why the Red Sox aren’t really a fit given the huge luxury tax hit that would accompany Kimbrel there. Those same luxury concerns are still present. Would the Wilpon family be willing to push the Mets’ payroll further into franchise-record territory than it already is (before even factoring in possible July trades)? It’s hard to envision. The Reds have had a great month to prevent themselves from falling out of the NL Central race after an awful start, but their payroll is already $25MM higher than last season’s and $11MM higher than it ever has been before. Even if they were to add to the payroll, the bullpen isn’t their most pressing area of concern. The Athletics didn’t necessarily spend a ton this winter, but they did spend enough to push their payroll to a franchise-record $92MM. Kimbrel would help them, particularly with Blake Treinen slipping a bit, but I’m not buying the A’s buying Kimbrel. I imagine the Cardinals to be in a similar boat, given their own record payroll. They’ve been bitten by most of their recent bullpen expenditures as well (Brett Cecil, Luke Gregerson, Greg Holland, Andrew Miller).

.500 clubs and fringe Wild Card teams

There’s a host of teams hovering around .500 and sitting within a stone’s throw of a Wild Card spot, but a more clear-cut divisional contender would have an easier time luring Kimbrel, who surely wants a shot at postseason redemption. You could make a case for any of the White Sox, Rangers, Angels, D-backs, Padres or Rockies, and there are indeed valid ways to see how he’d fit with some of those clubs, but it’s tough to classify any as a favorite.

Two months ago? Maybe! Now? Nope!

The Nationals, owners of an almost impossibly inept bullpen, get this category all to themselves. Kimbrel to the Nats was heavily rumored in spring but always felt like a bit of a stretch given that he’d push them back over the luxury tax for a third straight season. However, entering the year you could see why the Nationals might be willing to make that plunge. This was a team designed to contend in what was expected to be an ultra-competitive division, after all. Fast forward to the end of May, and the Nats sit eight games below .500 with a nine-game deficit in the NL East. Kimbrel alone isn’t fixing a bullpen ERA that somehow begins with the number 7. And, if you’re Kimbrel, do you really want to sign with a team that’s closer to the last-place Marlins than to a Wild Card spot?

Do they even need him?

Of course every bullpen can technically use a reliever of Kimbrel’s caliber, but he’s more a luxury for some contenders than others. The Yankees don’t need bullpen help even with Dellin Betances still sidelined and Chad Green doing very-non-Chad-Green things. Kimbrel would strengthen a strength and set them up for another deadly postseason relief corps, and the Yankees can afford him. The rotation is a greater need, though (cough cough Dallas Keuchel). Given that the Yankees will pay a 32 percent tax on any dollar they spend on a free agent at this point, they seem likelier to spend on needs than luxuries.

The luxury tax point doesn’t apply to the Astros, but the Houston ’pen leads the Majors in ERA, FIP and xFIP. They’ve had some infield injuries and hiccups at the back of the rotation, so they have greater needs. Houston is already near a record level payroll and is reasonably close ($17MM) to the luxury tax line. Adding Kimbrel would limit their future maneuverability if ownership prefers to stay south of that line.

The best fits (listed alphabetically)

  • Braves: Fans in Atlanta have been pleading for the front office to add Kimbrel for months, and the fit is more logical than ever. Closer Arodys Vizcaino was lost for the season while the majority of the arms on which the Braves leaned in 2018 have struggled through poor seasons. Dan Winkler’s ERA is north of 6.00. Shane Carle is in Triple-A. Jesse Biddle is now a Mariner. Atlanta’s most consistent reliever has been Luke Jackson, whom they outrighted off the 40-man roster on three different occasions in 2018. Currently, the Braves hold the second Wild Card spot in the NL and are three games back of the division-leading Phillies. General manager Alex Anthopoulos famously talked about the “flexibility” they had after going the bargain route in right field by re-signing Nick Markakis, but they’ve yet to actually take advantage of that payroll space.
  • Brewers: It’s possible that the Brewers should be included in the previous “close to their payroll limit” section, but they were linked to Kimbrel frequently late in Spring Training. Milwaukee’s payroll is at $122MM, which isn’t much relative to other clubs but is $18MM more than the Brewers had spent on a single season prior to 2019. The bullpen hasn’t been the same juggernaut it was last season, in part due to the loss of Corey Knebel for the season (Tommy John surgery). A Kimbrel/Josh Hader/Jeremy Jeffress trio in the late innings sounds formidable, to be sure. The question is whether the Brewers would be willing to push an already record payroll to the point where they’d outbid the rest of the field.
  • Dodgers: With the exception of Kenley Jansen, the Andrew Friedman-led Dodgers just haven’t spent at the top of the market at any position in free agency. That said, his price has to be down from the offseason, and the winter pickup of Joe Kelly hasn’t panned out, thus leaving L.A. with a mediocre relief corps. They’d likely pay a 20 percent luxury tax on some of the money it’d take to land Kimbrel. A team with pockets this deep and a pedestrian bullpen makes the fit logical in a vacuum, even if context suggests that it’s not likely.
  • Phillies: Like the Braves, the Phillies have been one of the longest-mentioned fits for Kimbrel. The need for a high-end reliever in Philadelphia might be greater now than at any point over the past caliber year; as we explored recently, the Phillies have nearly an entire bullpen’s worth of quality relievers on the injured list. A resurgent Hector Neris and sophomore Seranthony Dominguez are leading the charge in the late innings, but there’s certainly room to add Kimbrel to this injury-ravaged relief unit. That said, there are still indications that Philly is only interested in Kimbrel on a one-year deal, and that’s probably not going to cut it.
  • Rays: Winners of six straight games and owners of MLB’s third-best run differential, the Rays have been one of the game’s best overall teams through the end of May. They’re a half game behind the Yankees in the AL East and are firmly in control of the top AL Wild Card spot as of this writing. Payroll concerns are always going to dominate discussions regarding the Rays, but they entered the year at just $60MM in payroll — one year after they opened the season at $76MM. Those sums may induce laughter from fans of big-market clubs, but the 2019 Rays roster is no joke. When they’re in this close a race with the Yankees for the division crown, every win is vital. The difference between a Wild Card play-in and a guaranteed ALDS berth is monumental, and Kimbrel should help them keep pace.
  • Twins: Minnesota managed to reduce its payroll while still adding the likes of Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Schoop — Joe Mauer’s retirement and the expiration of Ervin Santana’s contract helped — which set them up as a credible threat to the Indians. They’ve been more than a credible threat, though, racing out to one of the best records in baseball and opening an enormous 10-game lead in the AL Central. Adding Kimbrel would push the Twins to a new franchise-record payroll, but not by that much; for a team that is now selling out Target Field after years of futility (excepting their 2017 Wild Card run), there’s every reason to make an aggressive move. Back in January, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine spoke of “investing appropriately” and “striking” while the window is “wide open.” Whether Kimbrel is the “appropriate” investment is up to their discretion, but it’s hard to imagine a more open window than a 10-game lead in a division with three rebuilding clubs.

Injuries Mounting In Phillies’ Bullpen

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By most measures, the 2019 campaign has been a very good one for the Phillies so far. The team is out to a 33-22 start, giving them a 3.5-game lead over the Braves in the National League East. Neither their lineup nor their pitching staff has been dominant, but the Phils’ +35 run differential is easily the best in their division. They’ve been a solid team — albeit in a division that’s been less competitive than many pundits anticipated prior to the season thanks to an awful start by the Nationals and a lackluster start from the Mets.

But the Phillies also entered the final week of May with a long list of injuries in the bullpen, and it’s only gotten worse over the past 24 hours. Right-hander Victor Arano, who has been out since mid April due to inflammation in his right elbow, underwent arthroscopic surgery yesterday, as NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury tweeted. Meanwhile, the team announced that lefty Adam Morgan, who is in the midst of the best season of his career, has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a forearm strain.

There’s no clear timeline for the return of either hurler, though the Phillies should issue an update on Arano’s status in the near future. He’s not a household name by any means, but the 24-year-old has looked every bit the part of a big league reliever since breaking into the Majors in 2017. Through his first 74 2/3 innings, Arano owns a 2.65 ERA with 9.6 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. He’s allowed just seven homers in that time while posting gaudy swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates (16.6 percent and 36.1 percent, respectively).

Morgan, meanwhile, sports a 1.96 ERA through 18 1/3 innings in 2019. The 29-year-old former starter has an 18-to-5 K/BB ratio in that time and has held lefties to a .154/.313/.231 average while limiting righties to an even more putrid .114/.162/.301 slash.

That pair of injury updates comes in addition to ongoing absences for David Robertson (flexor strain), Pat Neshek (shoulder strain), Edubray Ramos (biceps tendinitis) and Tommy Hunter (flexor strain). Philadelphia has nearly an entire MLB-caliber bullpen on the injured list at present, and none of the bunch is even out on a minor league rehab assignment.

Unsurprisingly, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark tweets that the Phillies are likely to “aggressively” pursue bullpen upgrades following next week’s MLB draft. But while that might stoke some renewed speculation about a possible match with Craig Kimbrel, Stark also downplayed that possibility. Similarly, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki suggests that a match between the Phillies and Kimbrel is still unlikely if Kimbrel is hoping to secure a multi-year deal. By all accounts, that’s the free-agent closer’s goal once he’s shed the burden of draft-pick compensation, so it doesn’t seem wise to pencil Kimbrel into the back of Gabe Kapler’s bullpen anytime soon.

Early June will still be too soon for some clubs to determine whether they’re full-on sellers, but there will be several clubs that have already accepted that fate — many of whom have some intriguing bullpen options to market. The Giants (Will Smith, Sam Dyson, Tony Watson), Tigers (Shane Greene) and Blue Jays (old friend Ken Giles?) are among the likely sellers of some high-end bullpen options, and none from that bunch has any designs on contending in their respective divisions at this juncture of the season. Specific targets will likely emerge as the Phils (and other teams) shift their focus beyond the draft, but they stand out as an obvious candidate to be among the game’s early buyers this year.

Braves Interested In Craig Kimbrel, Dallas Keuchel

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Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos “made it clear” Sunday that they have legitimate interest in free-agent pitchers Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel, according to Jim Bowden of SiriusXM. Unsurprisingly, though, the Braves don’t seem inclined to sign Kimbrel or Keuchel until the June 3 draft, at which point a team would not have to surrender a pick for either of the two qualifying offer recipients.

Given their outstanding track records in the majors, Kimbrel and Keuchel entered free agency in November as two of the highest-ranked players available. High-paying, long-term contracts looked likely for both players at the time, but seven months later, they remain without teams. That probably won’t be the case for much longer considering the soon-to-expire draft pick ramifications, however.

For the Braves, the interest in Kimbrel is particularly notable. The right-hander was a 2008 draftee of the Braves, who took him in the third round and then saw him develop into one of the best picks in franchise history. Now one of the greatest relievers ever, Kimbrel spent 2010-14 with Atlanta, for which he pitched to a near-spotless 1.43 ERA/1.52 FIP with 14.82 K/9 against 3.36 BB/9 and piled up 186 saves over 289 innings. The Braves then ended their relationship with Kimbrel when they traded him to the Padres in April 2015. Kimbrel, now 31, moved on to the Red Sox via trade in 2016 and remained a formidable late-game force with the club through 2018, though he wasn’t as effective last season after an otherworldly showing in 2017.

On paper, Kimbrel would be an enormous pickup for an Atlanta team whose bullpen has fallen short this season. Their relief unit ranks 22nd in the majors in ERA and 27th in walks per nine innings, though current closer Luke Jackson, Touki Toussaint, Sean Newcomb and Jacob Webb have been good to great. Otherwise, the Braves have shuffled through several veterans who are far less inspiring than Kimbrel. Arodys Vizcaino, Jesse Biddle and Jonny Venters – all of whom are now out of the organization – as well as Josh Tomlin, the just-acquired Anthony Swarzak and Jerry Blevins are among familiar names the Braves have turned to in search of solutions.

The Braves’ rotation has been better than their bullpen, ranking 10th in ERA and 18th in fWAR, but the club seems to believe there’s ample room for improvement. They could look to Keuchel, a 31-year-old southpaw who’s a former AL Cy Young winner (2015), for help. The ex-Astro would be the most established starter on Atlanta’s staff, but he’d have a hard time topping the marvelous production Mike Soroka and Max Fried have put forth. Kevin Gausman and Julio Teheran have been useful in their own right, but the Braves have otherwise struggled to find a capable fifth member for their rotation. Mike Foltynewicz entered 2019 off what looked like a breakout season, but he has been a weak link so far. Newcomb, Toussaint, Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson have also had difficulty over a combined eight starts.

Of course, it’s worth pointing out that no one knows when Kimbrel or Keuchel will be ready to help a team. Even if they sign within the next week, they’ll likely need time to prepare to join their next club(s). Beyond that, there’s the key matter of how much they’ll cost. That may be of especially great import to the Braves, whose payroll has left fans upset this season. They opened 2018 with an $118MM-plus outlay, but despite winning the NL East last season, they’re now in the $115MM range. What’s more, back in February, neither Anthopoulos nor Braves CEO Terry McGuirk seemed too enthusiastic about distributing a big, multiyear contract. However, McGuirk did note, “We still have an appreciable amount of dry powder ready to go.”

Rays In Contact With Keuchel, Kimbrel

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Free agent hurlers Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel are both expected to sign somewhere shortly after midnight EST on June 2 when they will no longer be tied to draft pick compensation, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Josh Tolentino. Craig Edwards from Fangraphs recently put together a valuation of the compensation cost every team would face were they to sign either Keuchel or Kimbrel before the June 2nd expiration date. At this stage, however, even if there were a team willing to stomach the loss of a draft pick, it behooves these free agents to wait out this final week and see if their “lightened load” helps spark a bidding war – “war” being a relative term here.

Where these two end up will continue to be one of the stories of the season. Despite their well-catalogued need for a starting pitcher, the Padres do not appear ready to buy on Keuchel. The Rays, meanwhile, remain in touch with both pitchers, per Rosenthal and Tolentino. Common assumptions about “need” would point to Keuchel as the natural fit for the Rays, but Kimbrel may actually be the more likely of the two. The Rays certainly know how to use a good reliever, though Kimbrel would likely have to open his mind to a less-than-traditional closer’s role.

On the other hand, the Rays have to be intrigued by the possibility of rolling into the second half of the season sporting a top-four of Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, Keuchel and Tyler Glasnow. Health and contract negotiations aside, such a traditional powerhouse rotation would be a fun twist for the revolutionizing Rays. Even if they are still Facebook friends with Keuchel and Kimbrel, however, they’ll need to outbid the Yankees at the very least to snag Keuchel. For Kimbrel, if you can name a contender, you can find a potential landing spot.

Of course, this conversation would make a whole lot of sense were this December. Since it’s now late-May, and neither pitcher seems likely to sign before June 3rd at the earliest, conjecture about widespread interest (on my part) in Kimbrel is a tad comical, even if bullpens are languishing left and right throughout the league. Still, there’s widespread interest in winning, even if evidence often points to the contrary. Point being, though they’ve gone unsigned up til now, the Rays will not be alone in courting the services of Kimbrel (or Keuchel) come early June.

Rays “Keeping In Touch” With Craig Kimbrel

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The Rays were reportedly in contact with free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel as of late March. A month and a half later, Kimbrel remains without a job, and the Rays are still among clubs “keeping in touch” with the seven-time All-Star, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.

The 24-14 Rays own baseball’s second-best record thanks in part to their bullpen, which ranks second in the majors in ERA and seventh in K/BB ratio. And they’ve done it without an established closer, having deployed Jose Alvarado, Diego Castillo and Emilio Pagan for at least three saves apiece. All three have been highly effective this season, as has fellow reliever Jalen Beeks, but with the juggernaut Yankees-Red Sox tandem breathing down Tampa Bay’s neck in the American League East, there’s room for outside reinforcements.

The main question for Kimbrel suitors, especially the low-budget Rays, centers on what type of offer would convince him to end his protracted stay on the open market. The 30-year-old entered free agency in November with designs on a contract befitting of a Cooperstown-caliber reliever. However, even after Kimbrel reportedly dropped his price to a more reasonable level last month, the market for the ex-Braves, Padres and Red Sox star has been shockingly tepid.

At this point, with the June 3-5 draft just a few weeks away, Kimbrel seems likely to continue without an employer until sometime next month. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained this week, teams have held off on signing Kimbrel for this long, so it doesn’t seem one will blink until it no longer has to surrender draft pick compensation for adding the qualifying offer recipient.

If the Rays were to sign Kimbrel prior to the draft, though, they’d have to part with their third-highest pick. On paper, that’s the smallest penalty available to clubs, but in the Rays’ case, it would mean losing the valuable 39th overall choice. Of course, the financial ramifications accompanying a Kimbrel signing also seem to stand in the way of a union with Tampa Bay. The Rays own the majors’ lowest 40-man payroll at just north of a paltry $53MM, so there should be room for Kimbrel or another pricey pickup(s) in theory. The franchise has never been known for spending, however, and Kimbrel may land a multiyear deal that would add a sizable commitment to its limited payroll beyond this season.

Keuchel & Kimbrel Will Soon Be Free Of Draft Compensation

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It’s funny how narratives shift. Not long ago, the drag effect of the qualifying offer was perhaps the single hottest topic in discussions of open-market dynamics. Now, broader forces have far eclipsed it in importance while rule changes have reduced the impact of the compensation system.

Let’s not ignore the interplay between the QO rule tweaks and the other CBA changes that have helped suppress free-agent earnings. The new qualifying offer rules represented a concession by the owners, but one that only really helped a limited range of players: those good enough to receive significant one-year offers from their existing clubs (most recently, the price was set at $17.9MM) but not so overwhelmingly appealing that the draft compensation was but a minor consideration. The burn was felt most by very good but somewhat flawed and/or older players. Reducing the magnitude of draft compensation helps, but those same players have gone on to be squeezed by other changes to rules and market dynamics.

In any event, the present market setting is one in which the qualifying offer factor is actually perhaps under-appreciated. Parting with draft picks for the right to pay top dollar to a free agent is still a tough pill to swallow for some teams. And there’s little doubt that the cost will be passed through to the player. As Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has put it, “we’ll put the value into an offer, but it wouldn’t stop us.” The inverse of that sentence might be a more accurate way of stating the prevailing approach.

As you’re no doubt aware if you’ve read this far, there are two remaining free agents who declined a QO this past winter: all-time-great reliever Craig Kimbrel (Red Sox) and former Cy Young-winning starter Dallas Keuchel (Astros). This is the age-31 season for both players. They each have had their hiccups; despite producing generally commendable results of late, neither was at his finest form in 2018. Draft compensation has surely played a role in their rather stunning failure to sign to this point of the season, though it’s far from the only or even the predominant factor.

Both Kimbrel and Keuchel decided against settling for short-term bailout offers that emerged when their markets didn’t. Once the season started, it became quite likely that they’d end up waiting until at least June before putting pen to paper. That’s because the June draft represents an important point on the timeline for the qualifying offer rules.

Per the express terms of the most recent collective bargaining agreement, draft compensation is only available when a qualified player signs on or before the day immediately preceding the Rule 4 draft. This year’s selections begin on June 3rd. MLBTR has confirmed that, unless Kimbrel and Keuchel officially sign (with full league and union approval) on or before 11:59pm EST on June 2nd, all draft compensation relating to those players will be nullified.

With just over three weeks remaining until that vanishing act takes place, it’s rather difficult to see a deal materializing in advance of the draft. If teams are still capable of emotional decisionmaking, this is perhaps the time of year when draft choices are likely to be valued most highly, as clubs are tantalizingly close to turning those selections into actual prospects they like. And if the value of the draft pick compensation is effectively drawn out of the salary the team would otherwise offer, as Anthopoulos suggests and as stands to reason, then it surely makes sense for the player to wait a few more weeks at this point.

A surprise is always possible, but it’s all but certain now that the reps for the K&K holdout hurlers are already chatting with teams about post-draft signing scenarios. What exactly does that mean? For one thing, the countdown could be on for these accomplished hurlers to finally begin pitching again. In some respects, the scene will shift; teams weighing a signing will also be considering trade-deadline alternatives that will require the sacrifice of young talent (and that may not be available for at least a few more weeks). The wild card here is the players’ asking prices; it remains to be seen if they’ll hold out for (and receive) significant, multi-year offers.

For the teams potentially involved, the situation is clear. The Red Sox will not receive the post-4th-round comp pick they would have otherwise, which would have landed after the 137th pick that they already hold. And the Astros will miss out on a choice after competitive balance round B wraps up; it’d have been the 79th overall selection. For all the prospective signing teams, they would hang onto the picks they’d otherwise have to punt to sign one of these pitchers. Putting a real price on those picks is a tricky thing to do — here’s one recent attempt — because any real-world valuation would include team context (such as other picks and negotiating opportunities) as well as the grades placed on the actual prospects that might be taken.

If a deal does formally come together before the draft for one of these players, it’ll likely be with the former team. That’s how it played out back in 2014, the other time we’ve seen players turn down qualifying offers and then languish on the open market. Stephen Drew signed in late May, but that was a deal with the incumbent Red Sox, who by that time already knew they’d miss out on compensation with the draft so close. Kendrys Morales waited until early June for draft compensation to clear, then landed with the Twins.

NL Notes: Kimbrel, Mets, Brewers, Giants, Morrow, Cubs

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Free agent reliever Craig Kimbrel is “still in touch” with the Mets and Brewers, tweets The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, who notes that the Mets would only sign the 30-year-old if he were open to “any role” in the team’s bullpen. Rosenthal reported a week ago that the flamethrower’s price has dropped substantially, though whether or not he’s budged on the desire to pitch only in the ninth inning is still an open question. Both clubs’ pens have been far shakier than anticipated in the early going: indeed, apart from the lights-out performance of offseason acquisition Edwin Diaz, New York’s pen has arguably been the league’s worst. Milwaukee, too, has lost Corey Knebel to Tommy John, was without stalwart Jeremy Jeffress until this week, and has gotten middling-at-best output from all other contributors not named Josh Hader. Still, it’s the sloppy rotation – beset by a thus-far return to normalcy from Jhoulys Chacin and a gopher-ball binge embarked upon by rookies Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta – that seems most in need of the Crew’s attention. Allocating what little resources purportedly remain to anything other than a veteran starter would seem a curious choice indeed.

In other news from around the Senior Circuit…

  • Per Rosenthal, the Giants are already “willing to talk” about some of their veteran relievers, though closer Will Smith doesn’t appear to be among the names on the list. Lefty Tony Watson, who’s seen his average fastball velocity dip to a career-low 91.0 MPH, figures to be at the fore, along with the richly-paid Mark Melancon. Sam Dyson, Trevor Gott, and Nick Vincent, all of whom’ve had strong 2019 debuts, would likely also be in the mix, with the former’s $5MM 2019 salary seemingly the impetus for such an early position on the block. The club would likely jump at the chance to move Melancon, 34, who’s owed approximately $29MM through 2020. The former closer hasn’t allowed a run thus far in ten ’19 IP, but signs of major regression lurk beneath: the righty’s allowed hard contact at a rate of above 40% for the second consecutive season (after a career-high of 27.1% in his first nine MLB campaigns), has seen his swinging strike rate plummet to a career-worst 8.0%, and is again failing to strike batters out at an alarming rate. Any Melancon move would likely need to be offset by either another bad contract or a significant chunk of change heading with him, but the ever-creative Farhan Zaidi may yet have something up his sleeve.
  • Cubs reliever Brandon Morrow, who’s mixed occasional big-league appearances around a litany of DL/IL stints in his 13-year MLB career, has been shut down in his attempted return from a right elbow injury. The 34-year-old was scheduled to miss just the season’s first month, but “did not recover well” from a bullpen session he threw earlier this week, according to MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. The club, who’s already shuffled multiple bullpen pieces after a disastrous late-inning start in the early going, was counting heavily on Morrow to stabilize the mishmash crew. No timetable’s been set for the righty’s return, so the club will have to lean primarily on the well-traveled arms of Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, and Brandon Kintzler in close-and-late situations.

Latest On Braves’ Bullpen

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After losing closer Arodys Vizcaino to season-ending shoulder surgery Wednesday, Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos unsurprisingly acknowledged that his club will consider multiple avenues to improving what was already a struggling relief corps (links via MLB.com’s Mark Bowman and Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). Atlanta, per Anthopoulos, is going to look to “do what we can … both internally and externally.”

Vague as the comment may be, the minds of all Braves fans are zeroed in on one name: free-agent Craig Kimbrel. However, both Bowman and Burns suggest that a match between Kimbrel and the Braves remains unlikely, as the team isn’t keen on inking its former closer to a multi-year pact. Cognizant of upcoming restrictions on their international spending abilities, the Braves are apparently also placing an extra emphasis on the draft pick they’d forfeit to sign Kimbrel. It’d be a surprise if that were a primary factor in their thinking, though. Atlanta already has a deep farm, and they recently ensured that their two brightest young stars will be on the roster for upwards of a decade. Stockpiling depth and trade capital is an ever-important endeavor, but draft forfeitures shouldn’t be the primary roadblock if the two sides eventually land in the same ballpark in terms of years and dollars.

It seems there’s still a gap, although Kimbrel’s precise asking price isn’t clear. A weekend report from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal pegged Kimbrel’s price point at something in the vicinity of the three-year deals received by Wade Davis ($52MM) and Zack Britton ($39MM) over the past two offseasons, but even those contracts have a fairly notable range between them. For Atlanta, the annual value isn’t a sticking point so much as the length. A three-year deal, per Burns, “is a commitment the Braves won’t make.”

The question for the Braves, if Kimbrel isn’t the solution, becomes one of where they can turn for improvement. The free-agent market is rather bare beyond him at this point. Old friend Bud Norris remains unsigned but, like Kimbrel, wouldn’t be ready immediately. Veteran Ryan Madson is without a team, but as of early February, he was reportedly pondering whether he even planned to pitch in 2019. He’d need even longer to get up to speed.

The mid-April trade market isn’t likely to be any better, as most teams will be reluctant to sell off veteran assets so early. The Blue Jays made a pair of early moves to ship out Kendrys Morales and Kevin Pillar, but financial motivations and a desire to clear space for younger players fueled those deals. Their bullpen isn’t in the same situation. There’s sure to be some depth hitting the waiver wire in the coming weeks, but Atlanta doesn’t have a strong waiver priority, and the preference would presumably be to add more stability than someone who’d recently been designated for assignment anyhow.

Barring a drop in Kimbrel’s asking price, the likeliest outcome looks to be that the Braves try to patch things from within. To this point, none of their vaunted young starting pitching prospects have been tried out as a reliever (with the exception of a lone Touki Toussaint long-relief appearance following a short Sean Newcomb start). It’s worth seeing whether someone like Toussaint, Kyle Wright or Bryse Wilson can step up in the late innings as the team looks for ways to help a relief corps that entered play Wednesday with a 5.43 ERA before being saddled with its second loss in as many days.

NL Notes: Brewers, Kimbrel, Burnes, Braves, McCann, Giants, Austin

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Multiple reports over the past few weeks have linked the Brewers to free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel, though there have also been indications that the team doesn’t have the payroll available to sign the seven-time All-Star. However, owner Mark Attanasio didn’t slam the door shut on a potential Kimbrel signing Saturday, telling Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that whether the Brewers pursue the 30-year-old is up to general manager David Stearns. “He would help any team,” Attanasio said of Kimbrel, whose reported asking price looks sane in light of his vast career accomplishments and current skill set.

  • Meanwhile, in the Brewers’ starting staff, right-hander Corbin Burnes is yielding home runs at a historic rate, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com observes. Burnes surrendered three homers in each of his first three starts, making him the ninth pitcher since 1908 to be victimized to that degree, per McCalvy. Although Burnes owns a a ludicrous 64.3 percent HR-to-fly ball rate across 14 1/3 innings this season, manager Craig Counsell said the Brewers aren’t planning to pull the 25-year-old from their rotation. Rather, they had Burnes meet with members of their analytics department to determine whether his fastball, which has left the yard eight times this year, has become too predictable, Haudricourt tweets. The hard-throwing Burnes’ sudden homer proneness is particularly unexpected given that the former top 100 prospect seldom allowed HRs in the minors; further, the long ball didn’t haunt Burnes to an alarming extent during his 38-inning major league debut last season.
  • Braves catcher Brian McCann is aiming to come off the 10-day injured list April 17, the first day he’s eligible to return, David O’Brien of The Athletic reports. McCann landed on the IL with a right hamstring strain, temporarily derailing his homecoming season in Atlanta after just 19 plate appearances. Fortunately for the Braves, fellow backstop Tyler Flowers has come roaring out of the gates this year, which has helped offset McCann’s absence.
  • Giants first baseman/outfielder Tyler Austin may be heading for the IL, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Austin, whom the Giants acquired from the Twins on Monday, suffered a right elbow injury in a throwing drill on Friday and will go for an MRI. The 27-year-old has gone 3-for-9 with two walks at the outset of his Giants tenure.

Latest On Craig Kimbrel

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6:11pm: Kimbrel is seeking a contract in the range of the deals the Rockies’ Wade Davis (three years, $52MM) and the Yankees’ Zack Britton (three years, $39MM) received over the previous couple offseasons, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports on Twitter. Those look like reasonable asking prices for Kimbrel, yet there’s no indication he’s close to signing anywhere.

12:32am: With the excitement of a new season, it’s easy to forget that one of the game’s most accomplished relief pitchers is still sitting on the sideline after failing to find a contract over the offseason. Star closer Craig Kimbrel remains available — and that fact that is due largely to his own unrealistic asking prices, Jim Bowden argues at The Athletic (subscription link).

According to Bowden, agent Dave Meter not only set out in search of a six-year, $120MM for Kimbrel, but has continued to demand a record-seeking deal this spring. Bowden claims that, “even as late as March,” the Kimbrel camp “was still seeking a five-year pact in the $100 million range.”

If indeed that’s the case, it would be hard to escape the conclusion that Kimbrel and/or Meter have simply failed to recognize the reality of Kimbrel’s market standing. Despite his historic excellence, there were some well-documented issues with his free-agent case. That’s why MLBTR predicted a four-year, $70MM contract rather than a record-setting, nine-figure pact.

While a nine-figure bonanza was never likely achievable, it’s certainly possible that mistaken market posturing cost Kimbrel a chance at a deal of the sort we expected. It’s also all but impossible to say that with any real confidence without knowing quite a bit more than is publicly available.

Even if Bowden is correct regarding the Kimbrel side’s expressed beliefs regarding his value, it’s not clear at all that Kimbrel ever fielded and rejected any truly significant contract offers. (Bowden does say that “specific, and significant, offers, or at least ranges of potential contract proposals” were made, though details aren’t available.) Perhaps the player-side negotiating position prevented that from happening, but that’s not something that can be assessed with certitude.

Whatever the case, it’s a tough spot now for Kimbrel and his rep. (Somewhat ironically, Meter is also under fire for rather different reasons after another client inked an eyebrow-raising recent extension.) Their present bargaining position isn’t really known, but it’s certainly becoming harder and harder to imagine a multi-year arrangement coming together — let alone one that compensates Kimbrel commensurate with his still-lofty present ability levels.

While some teams have evidently been interested in discussing longer-term proposals, their own willingness may not be the same at this point of the year. Bowden says that  most of those clubs now simply want to score a “bargain basement deal” with Kimbrel, though perhaps it’s still possible that one or more will do more if they truly believe it’s necessary to convince Kimbrel to get back in action and see enough of a team need. (Certainly, there’s no shortage of teams with bullpen needs.)

It’s not an altogether different situation for veteran starter Dallas Keuchel. Bowden also chides him and agent Scott Boras for taking an unreasonable starting position and failing to adapt, though in that case it’s said that specific demands weren’t made in early talks.

Where and when these two hurlers might sign remains anyone’s guess. In a recent poll, MLBTR readers predicted that deals wouldn’t come until after the June draft, at which time draft compensation will no longer be required to add either player. If you’re interested in reading more about possible landing spots, the situation isn’t all that different than it was when MLBTR recently analyzed Kimbrel’s and Keuchels’s market standing team by team.

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