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Quick Hits: Otani, Archer, Rays, McCutchen, Bucs

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If Japanese ace Shohei Otani were a free agent this offseason, “He’d be by far the best pitcher on the market,” one general manager told Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com. Considering the current class lacks front-end starters, that’s not a surprise. However, the 22-year-old right-hander would also draw plenty of interest on a robust market. Otani led the Nippon Ham Fighters to a Japan Series title this past season while recording a 1.86 ERA, 11.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 over 140 innings. The left-handed batter was also outstanding offensively, hitting .322/.416/.588 with 22 home runs in 382 plate appearances, and could become a two-way star in the major leagues eventually. One GM would have no problem allowing Otani to hit on days he doesn’t pitch. “Sign me up. I think every one of the 30 teams would be in the mix,” he said. Otani has only played four years in Japan and won’t be eligible to come to the majors of his own volition until after his ninth season, but the Fighters could post him before then and receive $20MM in return from the team that wins his services. There are multiple GMs who don’t expect that to happen until 2018, though, per Bloom.

More from around baseball:

  • The Rays are in position to take advantage of the lack of enticing starters on this year’s market, opines Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The club has trade candidates in a pair of righties – Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi – and southpaw Drew Smyly, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported Friday that the Rays departed this week’s GM meetings with confidence that they’d deal at least one of them. Righty Alex Cobb also holds appeal, writes Topkin, even though he pitched to an 8.59 ERA in 22 innings this year after missing all of 2015 because of Tommy John surgery. “The demand is there,” GM Erik Neander said of his pitchers. “When you have really good players, especially in an area where there is need across the league, I think it certainly plays that way.”
  • The Rays’ best starter, Archer, lamented the team’s financial limitations in an interview with MLB Network Radio on Thursday. “I think in order for us to be successful, we’ve got to spend more money,” he said (via Topkin). “You look at the teams that were in contention this year and they were all around the $100-million payroll mark or more. And we’re in the $70 million payroll (range).” Archer continued, “I get it. We might not be capable of spending with the Yankees and Red Sox. But if we keep harping on it then it permeates the minds of the players. And we don’t want the players to think that we’re at any competitive disadvantage.” President of baseball operations Matt Silverman responded to Archer’s comments Friday, telling Topkin, “We share Chris’ passion. There’s no value in harping on the competitive disadvantages in baseball. It’s our reality. And it’s what helps motivate us to find new ways to win.”
  • The Pirates held trade talks over the summer involving center fielder Andrew McCutchen, the longtime face of the franchise, and GM Neal Huntington has continued to field inquiries on the 30-year-old. Regarding the interested teams, Huntington told the Associated Press after the GM meetings, “They recognize that we haven’t been averse to moving guys as their contract nears expiration. It’s a part of how we believe we need to do things to continue to be competitive and continue to give ourselves a shot to win.”  McCutchen has a maximum of two years left on his contract, including a $14.5MM club option in 2018.

Trade Rumblings: A’s, Rangers, D-backs, Tigers, Dodgers, Rays

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While the Athletics aren’t exactly shopping any of Sonny Gray, Stephen Vogt or Sean Doolittle, they’re open-minded to trade scenarios involving the three due to the fact that they recognize the unlikeliness of competing in the next year’s AL West with this current group, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Per Rosenthal, Oakland will look to build around younger arms like Sean Manaea and Jharel Cotton, though he also notes the difficulty that presents itself when entertaining offers on Gray. Trading the 2015 Cy Young candidate when his value is at all-time low is quite problematic, as teams will be looking to buy low on the still-just-27-year-old Gray, while the A’s rightly would place a higher premium on him. Both Gray and Vogt are controllable for three more years via arbitration, while Doolittle is guaranteed a mere $6.95MM over the next two seasons and has two club options at $6MM and $6.5MM beyond that.

Some more trade rumblings from around the league…

  • Also via Rosenthal, the Rangers and Rays had extensive talks about Chris Archer, Drew Smyly and Jake Odorizzi prior to the non-waiver trade deadline this summer, and the two sides aren’t expected to renew any of those talks. Texas isn’t as aggressive on Rich Hill as other clubs either, though Rosenthal notes that they’ll still probably find a way add a mid-rotation arm or back-of-the-rotation arm at some point this winter.
  • The Diamondbacks are content to hang onto Yasmany Tomas for the time being, Rosenthal reports. The 26-year-old had a huge second half that saw him bat .294/.329/.584 with 18 homers in 258 plate appearances, boosting his season batting line to .272/.313/.508 to go along with 31 homers. However, his highly suspect defense (-16 DRS, -14 UZR), below-average OBP and poor baserunning left him as a replacement-level player in the eyes of both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. Rosenthal notes that AL teams may eventually find Tomas more attractive once players like Yoenis Cespedes and Edwin Encarnacion sign, though I’m not sure any team would jump at Tomas’ contract. He’s guaranteed $48.5MM over the next four seasons and has an opt-out clause following the 2018 campaign on his backloaded deal. In other words, if Tomas blossomed into the regular he was projected to be, he could jump ship after just two years and re-enter free agency, but if 2017 mirrors his first two years, an acquiring team would be looking at nearly $50MM for a sub-replacement-level player.
  • ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick spoke to a number of general managers at this week’s meetings to discuss the thin market for starting pitching, including Tigers GM Al Avila. Crasnick writes that the Tigers are willing to dangle Justin Verlander in trades — Avila acknowledged as much earlier this week when saying the Tigers were open-minded to virtually any trade scenario — and notes that the GM has already spoken with Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler and informed them that they should expect to see their names bandied about in trade rumors this offseason.
  • Crasnick also talked to Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi about the possibility of L.A. swinging a deal for an arm. Zaidi expressed some confidence in the depth that the team has internally before adding, “…but there’s a reason we went out and traded for Rich Hill at the deadline last year. It’s something we’re going to continue to monitor.” Zaidi’s Dodgers are indeed stacked with depth — in addition to Clayton Kershaw they have options in Julio Urias, Kenta Maeda, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Alex Wood, Jose De Leon, Brock Stewart, Hyun-jin Ryu and Ross Stripling — which is why the GM said the team will be “fairly targeted in looking for guys who come with maximum upside to pitch at the front of the rotation.”
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the Rays left the GM Meetings with a stronger belief than they had upon arrival that they’ll trade one of Archer, Odorizzi or Smyly this winter. He adds that there’s an “outside chance” that Alex Cobb will be dealt as well, although Cobb’s return from Tommy John surgery was delayed in 2016, leaving him with a total of just 22 innings and an 8.59 ERA, so it’d be understandable if Tampa Bay feels that Cobb’s value would increase in 2017.

AL East Notes: Rays, Bogaerts, Bautista, Encarnacion

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The Blue Jays can advance to the ALCS for the second straight year if they can defeat the Rangers in Game Three of their series tonight, while the Red Sox will be eliminated if they don’t win their own Game Three with the Indians this afternoon.  The Sox could live to play another day, however, without ever taking the field — there is a lot of rain in the forecast in Boston and MLB officials are already meeting to discuss a possible postponement.  Here’s the latest from around the AL East…

  • The Rays may have to trade some salary in order to add needed parts to their roster while still keeping a payroll in the $65-$70MM range, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  Drew Smyly, Erasmo Ramirez and Brad Boxberger could all be potential trade chips, Topkin speculates, since the three hurlers are all becoming increasingly expensive through arbitration.
  • In his latest Boston Globe notes column, Nick Cafardo wonders if the Red Sox could eventually move Xander Bogaerts to third base given Bogaerts’ subpar defensive metrics.  Bogaerts’ glovework accounted for minus-10 Defensive Runs Saved and -1.6 UZR/150 in 2016, a significant drop from his generally average numbers in 2015.  A move to the hot corner doesn’t seem imminent, given that the Sox already have Travis Shaw as the incumbent, Pablo Sandoval still owed a lot of money and top prospects Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers also lined up for third base.  It could be that the Red Sox can live with Bogaerts’ defense as long as he keeps producing at the plate.  If not, other shortstop options include slick-fielding but light-hitting Deven Marrero, as well as prospects C.J. Chatham and Mauricio Dubon still a couple of years away.
  • Also from Cafardo’s column, he opines that Jose Bautista’s time with the Blue Jays could be coming to an end.  The Jays may not even extend Bautista a one-year, $16.7MM qualifying offer for fear that the slugger could accept it.  Bautista had a down year by his standards, hitting .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers over 517 plate appearances in a season interrupted by two DL stints.  These are still pretty solid numbers, however, plus Bautista is enhancing his stock with another big postseason performance, so I would be pretty surprised if the Blue Jays declined to even issue a QO.  Unless the club is simply ready to move on from the slugger, I would also imagine that the Jays wouldn’t mind having Bautista back on a one-year deal, given his outstanding track record.
  • The Blue Jays could make Edwin Encarnacion another offer in the wake of his excellent season, Cafardo writes, though Encarnacion is expected to be a top Red Sox target to replace David Ortiz.
  • Encarnacion has long been linked to Boston on the rumor mill, though ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required) feels Encarnacion isn’t really a fit since the Red Sox are already overflowing with position players.  The Sox could also use a left-handed bat rather than a righty-swinger like Encarnacion, plus there are several other first base/DH types on the market this winter that could be obtained for a much cheaper price.

Rays, Phillies Placing High Asking Prices On Starters

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The asking prices for starting pitching don’t appear to be dipping even as some more supply hits the market, according to reports from ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick and Jayson Stark (Twitter link). Both the Rays and Phillies are said to be seeking significant returns on their best trade assets, buttressed by the idea that they don’t have to sell.

For Tampa Bay, the fact remains that none of its starters are set to reach free agency after the season, so there’s no real urgency to deal. The Rays’ surplus of controllable arms isn’t such a pressing matter that a deal is necessary, and none of its apparent trade pieces is really pitching to expectations. Jake Odorizzi has been steady enough, but the others — Chris Archer, Matt Moore, and Drew Smyly — have at best been inconsistent. Against that backdrop, perhaps it’s unsurprising that appealing offers have apparently not yet developed.

There’s plenty of time between now and the August 1st deadline for that to change, of course, but sources suggest to Crasnick that the odds are shifting towards a move over the winter. The Rays can hope that its starters turn around their performances while still feeling comfortable that the demand will be there given with a weak pending  free agent class. As an executive on a buy-side teams explains it: “There’s no urgency for them to do stuff now. They can set a price, and if they don’t get it, they’ll take it into the offseason.”

As for the Phillies, the deadline is more or less all about one name: Jeremy Hellickson. According to Stark, the Phils are letting other teams know that they will require a top-five type of organizational prospect in order to part with the resurgent righty. Though he’s a free agent, Philadelphia is apparently content with the idea that it can recoup value via the qualifying offer.

That trade stance seems like an interesting gambit that the Phillies organization is well-positioned to try. Hellickson has been lights-out of late, and the rental market is otherwise headlined by an injured Rich Hill and inconsistent Andrew Cashner. Actually holding onto Hellickson is not certain to result in a draft pick — he might fall off in the next several months or could accept a QO — but it’s a plausible enough idea at this point given that Philly has ample financial muscle to actually make him an offer even in the midst of a rebuild.

Rays Considering Dealing Starting Pitchers

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The expectation is that this summer’s trade market will be largely devoid of quality starting pitchers, but last-place Tampa Bay could change that. The Rays, who are 33-47 and 10 games out of a Wild Card position, are discussing putting some of their young starters on the block well in advance of the Aug. 1 trade deadline, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links). One member of the group unlikely to go anywhere is underachieving right-hander Chris Archer, whose team-friendly contract might be too difficult for the Rays to part with, per Rosenthal.

With Archer probably staying in a Rays uniform and top prospect Blake Snell seemingly a poor bet to go anywhere, that leaves Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore as rotation members Tampa Bay could shop. Each is likely attainable if the right offer comes along, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo reported Saturday afternoon.

Odorizzi, who has backed up a respectable ERA (3.91) with solid strikeout and walk ratios per nine innings (8.59 and 2.96, respectively) across 94 1/3 frames this year, has already drawn interest from the Marlins. In 468 2/3 big league innings dating back to 2012, Odorizzi has held his own – 3.80 ERA, 8.45 K/9, 2.84 BB/9 and a 10 percent infield fly rate – though his 34.5 percent grounder rate (39.2 percent this year) is well below average. The 26-year-old right-hander is playing this season on an ultra-cheap $520,700 salary and has three years of arbitration eligibility remaining.

Smyly, 27, has run up a sky-high strikeout rate for the second straight year (10.09), improved his walk rate from 2.7 to 2.24, and continued generating a large amount of infield pop-ups (13.5 percent). Nonetheless, the southpaw’s run prevention has taken a significant hit. Through his first 96 1/3 innings this season, Smyly has recorded a 5.33 ERA – which is more than two runs worse than the excellent 3.11 mark he put in 66 2/3 frames last year.

Notably, Smyly missed a large portion of 2015 with a torn labrum and opted against season-ending surgery in favor of rehabilitation through rest, which proved successful then. However, research done for MLBTR during the offseason by Bradley Woodrum and Tim Dierkes showed that Smyly remains at relatively high risk of eventually needing Tommy John surgery. That could hurt his value, then, even though he logged a 3.45 ERA, 8.51 K/9 and 2.54 BB/9 in 55 starts with the Tigers and Rays from 2012-15 and is on a palatable salary ($3.75MM) with two more arbitration trips on the docket.

Moore has mimicked Smyly in having trouble preventing runs (4.67 ERA ) despite amassing strikeouts (8.61 per nine) and limiting walks (2.62), though he’s coming off a terrific June in which he threw 38 2/3 frames of 3.72 ERA ball. The former top prospect was an eminently useful starter from 2012-13 before injury issues – including April 2014 Tommy John surgery – kept him sidelined for the vast majority of the previous two campaigns. Moore, who’s making $5MM this year, has three affordable club options of $7MM, $9MM and $10MM left on his deal before he’ll become a free agent at the end of the 2019 season. The Rangers are reportedly among the teams interested in acquiring the 27-year-old.

Given the youth and team control Odorizzi, Smyly and Moore offer, their presences on the block could hugely impact the trade deadline. Several playoff contenders (other than the aforementioned Marlins and Rangers) are likely to be on the hunt for starters, which should put each member of the trio in demand.

Rangers Rumors: Deadline, Darvish, Choo

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Some rumblings on the Rangers, who improved to 24-19 on Saturday:

  • After acquiring top-end starter Cole Hamels at last year’s trade deadline, the prospect-stocked Rangers are well-positioned to make another major splash this summer, writes Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com. The Rangers aren’t yet engaged in “significant” discussions with other teams, reports Morosi, but he believes they could ultimately land another quality pitcher – be it a closer or a starter – and lists the Yankees’ Andrew Miller and the Rays’ Drew Smyly as possible targets. Texas would be “reluctant” to put together a package sufficient enough to land Marlins ace Jose Fernandez, per Morosi, who cites young infielder Jurickson Profar and corner infield/outfield prospect Joey Gallo as potential trade chips.
  • The deadline is still a ways off, but the Rangers are poised to land a notable reinforcement in ace Yu Darvish, who hasn’t pitched since 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery a year ago. Darvish is on track to make his season debut for the Rangers next Saturday, tweets Morosi. Darvish’s last remaining hurdle is a 90-pitch rehab start Sunday for Double-A Frisco, relays Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
  • Thanks in part to second baseman Rougned Odor’s forthcoming eight-game suspension, the Rangers might have to put right fielder Shin-Soo Choo back on the disabled list, as Grant details. Choo returned from a month-plus absence stemming from a calf injury Friday, but he had to leave the game because of a hamstring injury and is unlikely to play before Monday. Thus, rather than play with a 23-man roster and two-man bench (including a backup catcher), it could behoove the Rangers to return Choo to the DL and allow him to fully heal. “There is going to be a convergence of decisions,” manager Jeff Banister said. “We know we are going to have to play short-handed at some point. We are not in position to play ultra-short-handed.” 

Drew Smyly Wins Arbitration Hearing Over Rays

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Left-hander Drew Smyly and his agents at Frontline Athlete Management have won their arbitration hearing against the Rays, reports Jon Heyman (on Twitter). Because of the arbitration panel’s ruling, Smyly will earn $3.75MM in 2016 as opposed to the $3.2MM figure that had been submitted by the team.

This will be Smyly’s second trip through the arbitration process. As a Super Two player, he landed a $2.65MM salary last offseason and will be eligible for arbitration twice more before qualifying for free agency. Because his future salaries will be based off of his 2016 salary, that fact that he received the higher of the two possible sums in this hearing means that not only will he receive a greater salary in 2016, but his future salaries, too, will be based on a considerably more favorable launching point.

The sum in question at the hearing may seem relatively trivial to onlookers, although as several GMs and assistant GMs explained to MLBTR last year at this time, teams feel a responsibility to manage the arbitration market, as it is shared by all 30 clubs. Because all arbitration cases are built on recent historical comparables, the slight increases would eventually compound and become more significant were every team simply to give in to what appear, on the surface, to be relatively trivial amounts.

Rays, Drew Smyly Had Arbitration Hearing Today

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The Rays and left-hander Drew Smyly had an arbitration hearing today, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). A hearing is expected to come tomorrow, per Topkin, at which time an arbitration panel will award Smyly either a $3.75MM salary for the 2016 season (the figure he submitted) or a $3.2MM salary (the figure submitted by the Rays).

The 26-year-old Smyly came to the Rays by way of 2014’s three-team David Price blockbuster. Smyly had a dominant finish to that 2014 campaign following the trade — 1.70 ERA across seven starts — but lost a significant portion of his first full season with the Rays due to shoulder problems. After opening the year on the DL due to shoulder tendinitis, Smyly was activated in late April and made three starts before being diagnosed a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder. Smyly elected not to undergo surgery, which allowed him to pitch again i 2015 but also required a three-month stay on the disabled list. He returned in strong fashion, though, posting a 3.24 ERA with a 56-to-17 K/BB ratio in 50 innings across his final nine starts.

This will be Smyly’s second trip through the arbitration process. As a Super Two player, he landed a $2.65MM salary last offseason and will be eligible for arbitration twice more before qualifying for free agency. Because his future salaries will be based off of his 2016 salary, the outcome of the hearing carries much farther-reaching ramifications than the $550K that the two sides are presently debating.

The sum in question may seem trivial to some, although as several Major League executives explained to MLBTR last year at this time, teams feel a responsibility to manage a market that is shared by all 30 clubs. Because all arbitration cases are built on recent historical comparables, the slight increases would eventually compound and become more significant were every team simply to give in to what appear, on the surface, to be relatively trivial amounts.

Smyly is one of 16 arbitration cases around the league that remains unresolved, as MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker shows. While some of those will be resolved prior to a hearing, it does appear that there will be a handful of cases settled via hearing in 2016.

Rosenthal On Leake, Orioles, Cubs, Inciarte

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Pitcher Mike Leake is willing to take significantly less to play at home in Arizona, according to sources who spoke with Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  However, D’Backs COO Tony La Russa says it’s “probably unlikely” that the team will sign him.

“It’s gone back and forth,” La Russa said. “Getting Shelby (Miller) gives us a (full) rotation. I think it’s difficult because when somebody wants to pitch for you and you really like the person, you want to try and work it out. But it’s complicated and probably unlikely.”

Here’s more from Rosenthal’s column:

  • If Chris Davis goes elsewhere, the Orioles will look to bring in a left-handed bat.  Rosenthal hears that Pedro Alvarez, Gerardo Parra and Will Venable are a few of the hitters that interest Baltimore brass.  The Orioles are also likely to explore the free agent market for a starting pitcher.
  • Many have been critical of the Orioles’ farm system depth, but GM Dan Duquette has rejected the notion that they are thin.  Duquette could put his money where his mouth is by trading for one of the Rockies’ outfielders, Rosenthal writes, but they would likely ask for Colorado native Kevin Gausman in return.
  • The Cubs are “one of a number teams” that inquired on Ender Inciarte after he went from the D’Backs to the Braves.  Still, they’re more likely to go after a starting pitcher by offering up Jorge Soler or Javier Baez.  Inciarte has five years of club control and can be a strong defensive center fielder, although he also has extensive experience at both corner positions. The 25-year-old was largely unheralded as a prospect but has batted a combined .292/.329/.386 in his first two Major League seasons, including a stellar .303/.338/.408 line in 2015.
  • The Padres, Indians, and Rays could all still move a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, Rosenthal writes, and the Rays might be the most likely of the three.  Tampa Bay has three starters who could be solid No. 2 guys in a rotation: righty Jake Odorizzi and lefties Drew Smyly and Matt Moore.  Alex Cobb could also be conceivably moved, but he is affordable and under club control for the next two years.

Pitching Notes: Rangers, Giants, Maeda, Chapman, Stammen, Jays, Pirates, Okajima

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It appears the Rangers are at least looking into an impactful pitching addition. MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan says (Twitter links) that the club has pursued Jose Fernandez, Shelby Miller, and Drew Smyly on the trade market, but “couldn’t make headway” on any of those players. The club is, however, holding a line of dialogue with the Indians on their rotation arms. Meanwhile, Texas has “neither funds nor interest level” to take a run at Japanese righty Kenta Maeda, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports on Twitter.

Here’s more on the pitching market:

  • The Giants have some interest in Maeda, skipper Bruce Bochy told reporters including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). And the team has scouted him previously in Japan, colleague Henry Schulman adds on Twitter. Of course, Bochy also added that the club expects Maeda to draw wide interest, and didn’t make clear just how strong of a draw he represents.
  • With uncertainty abounding, the Dodgers are holding internal discussions on what to do about the team’s prospective trade for Reds lefty Aroldis Chapman, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports via Twitter. It’s possible that the club could “pivot” to some other acquisition targets or that it might allow the situation to play out before committing in either direction, he adds.
  • Recently non-tendered righty Craig Stammen is “100% recovered” from his arm surgery, a source tells MLBTR’s Zach Links (via) Twitter. Stammen, a stalwart of the Nationals pen for several years, was non-tendered recently. He’ll be entering his age-32 season after producing a 2.88 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 in 246 2/3 innings over 2012-15.
  • The Blue Jays are considering an array of options as they look at pen additions, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca tweets. Toronto is considering everything from the best remaining free agent relievers to “bounce-back types,” he says.
  • While a lefty reliever isn’t the Pirates’ top priority, the team has reached to free agent Matt Thornton, Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports on Twitter.
  • The Pirates have shown interest in free agenty righty Kyle Kendrick, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports (via Twitter). Kendrick struggled last year for the Rockies, but he’s still just 31 years old and has had success at times in a swingman capacity. Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review broke down the Bucs’ efforts to find starters in a piece yesterday.
  • Japanese reliever Hideki Okajima is eyeing a return to the majors for his age-40 campaign, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com tweets. The long-time Red Sox southpaw last appeared in the bigs in 2013 with the Athletics and has played in Japan for the last two years.
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