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Francisco Lindor

Latest On Francisco Lindor’s Future

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After an offseason of trade rumors, the Indians still employ superstar Francisco Lindor. This is the time of year for extension talks and there are indications of mutual interest. But it’s far from clear there’s a match to be made.

Both Lindor and Cleveland president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti addressed the shortstop’s contract situation today, with ESPN.com’s Alden Gonzalez covering. He’s slated to earn $17.5MM this year with one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining, though the only hope of him remaining in town for the long run would be a new deal of some kind.

Lindor left no doubt he sees Cleveland as “home” and expressed a strong desire to stay and win with his sole professional organization. The 26-year-old also suggested he thinks a long-term contract is possible — and not just in the perfunctory way we sometimes hear from players.

“If the negotiations or whatever makes sense, it’s gonna happen,” Lindor said of a potential blockbuster extension. “The team is not broke. The league is not broke. There’s money.”

So, if Lindor truly wants to stay and feels the economic bridge can be spanned … is there a chance? Antonetti was rather less sanguine, his comments leaving the sense that player and team may well be fated by broader forces to part.

While he says there have been “meaningful efforts” to reach a deal in the past and acknowledges Lindor’s sincerity, Antonetti struck a realistic tone. While the team would also “love for Francisco to be here long-term,” Antonetti explained, it just isn’t that simple.

“It’s not because of a lack of desire on our part, or not because of a lack of desire on Francisco’s part. But more when you look at the economics of baseball and the realities of building championship teams in a small market, it gets really tough. The interest is there, the desire is there, on both sides, to try to get something done. And whether or not that’s possible we just don’t know.”

That stance jives with prior comments of Indians owner Paul Dolan, who has made clear he doesn’t find $300MM+ contracts plausible in the near future for his organization. Dolan also has advised fans to enjoy Lindor while he’s still with the club.

Details On Mets’ Pursuit Of Francisco Lindor In December

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The Mets were one of several teams reported to have interest in Francisco Lindor back when the Indians are seemingly testing the market for the All-Star shortstop earlier this winter.  Jeff McNeil was known to be one of Cleveland’s prime targets in talks with the Mets about Lindor, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) recently shed a bit more light on the “significant dialogue” between the Amazins and the Tribe.

“The Mets aggressively tried to acquire [Lindor] at the winter meetings,” Rosenthal writes, noting that it would “likely” have cost New York a three-player package consisting of Amed Rosario and two prospects.  Both this proposal and Cleveland’s interest in McNeil were too much for the Mets, however, and beyond the cost in trade chips, Rosenthal has also heard from some corners that “finances played a significant role” in negotiations.

Lindor’s salary for the 2020 season hadn’t yet been finalized by early December, though MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected the shortstop for a $16.7MM payday in his second of three arbitration-eligible seasons.  As it happened, Lindor topped this projected number by agreeing to a $17.5MM deal for 2020, an even healthier raise than expected over the $10.55MM salary he earned in 2019.  Assuming Lindor has another outstanding year in the coming season, his arb number for 2021 now looks to fall in range of $23MM-$24MM.

Still, something in the neighborhood of $41MM over a two-year span is more than reasonable for a player of Lindor’s caliber.  The Mets were known to be trying to move Jeurys Familia and/or Jed Lowrie in order to create payroll space, and the club hasn’t made any hugely expensive acquisitions this winter, signing Dellin Betances, Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha, and Brad Brach to one-year contracts for a combined $25.6MM in guaranteed money (a total that could rise significantly based on options and incentive clauses in the various deals).

Taking on both a big salary and parting ways with controllable talent like Rosario, McNeil, or prospects was too much for the Mets’ liking, which isn’t an unreasonable stance.  McNeil, after all, has been outstanding in his two MLB seasons and Rosario is coming off the best of his three big league campaigns, with the 24-year-old starting to deliver on some of the potential that made him one of baseball’s best prospects.  That said, the overall crux of Rosenthal’s piece examines how the Mets are still feeling the impact of last offseason’s blockbuster trade with the Mariners, as the added salaries of Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz (who both struggled badly in 2019) have limited payroll flexibility, while moving top prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn both thinned out New York’s farm system and also made the team seemingly more wary about moving any more of its top minor leaguers.

Had the Mets not swung that deal with Seattle, who knows how the Amazins’ fate could have changed both during the 2019 season or into their business this offseason, as New York could have been more willing to take the jump on a swap for Lindor or another trade target in Starling Marte (though the Pirates also put a high asking price on Marte in talks with the Mets).

To be fair, Rosenthal notes that as great a player as Lindor is, he “was a luxury item, not a must-have” for a Mets club that already had Rosario, plus top prospects Ronny Mauricio and Andres Gimenez coming up the pipeline at shortstop.  There’s also the fact that the Indians may not have been “especially motivated to act” on a Lindor trade, as the big returns Cleveland reportedly wanted in any potential deal indicated that the Tribe would only move Lindor if presented with a special offer.  The door now appears to be closed on the possibility of Lindor being dealt this winter, as Cleveland addressed their own payroll concerns by trading Corey Kluber to the Rangers.

Francisco Lindor Addresses Future With Indians

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Trade rumors have swirled around Francisco Lindor all winter, as the Indians’ moves to limit their payroll over the last 15 months have led to widespread speculation that Lindor will be dealt before he reaches free agency following the 2021 season.  Edwin Encarnacion’s three-year, $60MM deal from the 2016-17 offseason still stands as the largest contract in Indians franchise history, and since Lindor could certainly command four times that amount as a free agent, there has been a lot of doubt that he will remain in Cleveland over the long-term.

Speaking to reporters (including MLB.com’s Mandy Bell and the Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes) at the TribeFest fan event today, Lindor said the Indians “haven’t offered me the right thing” in regards to a multi-year extension.  Such a contract doesn’t seem to be a pressing concern for Lindor at the moment, as he is in “no rush” to pursue an extension since he is still two years away from the open market:

“Is there a right number for me right now?  I haven’t really thought about it.  I’m not there yet. I’m going to worry about what I got in front of my toes.  A lot of money sounds pretty right now.  Everything sounds pretty.  A lot of years sound pretty, too.  At the end of the day, it’s about what’s best for me, my family, and also the Indians’ organization.”

“If they don’t think I can stay here because of the money situation, then I won’t be here.  But I do want to be in Cleveland.  I love the Indians, I love their fans.  The city has grown on me a lot.  When it is the right time to sign an extension?  I don’t know when it’s the right time.  God has a plan for me and my family and I truly believe in it.  What’s going to happen is going to happen.”

In regards to the Tribe’s “money situation,” Lindor downplayed the idea that the club wasn’t able to afford him, pointing out “there’s money out there.  Our payroll was $120MM last year.  That’s money.”  That said, Lindor also acknowledged the team’s perspective on how payroll should be allocated: “The question is, is it the right time for each team…when are they going to spend the money?….Is it the right time for the Indians?  I don’t know.”

To this end, Lindor seemingly implied that while he enjoys playing for the Indians, he isn’t pleased with being part of a club that one eye on the budget rather than a sole focus on being competitive.  “Wherever I go, I want to win,” Lindor said.  “I want to bring a championship to the city of Cleveland….It has nothing to do with the money.  It has nothing to do with the years.  It has nothing to do with who I like or who I don’t like.  It has to do with championships.  The front office tries to put a team together to win, not to save money.  They’re supposed to try to put a team together to win.  I’m here to try to win.”

The Reds, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Padres, and Mets have all reportedly had interest in trading for Lindor this winter, though Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and manager Terry Francona have both stated that their team isn’t looking to deal the shortstop.  While a Lindor swap might not happen this offseason, the possibility can’t be ruled out for the trade deadline if the Indians aren’t in contention.  Of course, Cleveland traded Trevor Bauer last July even while still in contention, though the Indians had the pitching depth to make a Bauer deal more palatable, whereas there isn’t any way for the team to so easily replace Lindor’s usual All-Star level of production.

Latest On Reds’ Trade Talks

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We haven’t been alone in wondering whether the Reds’ slate of offseason moves set the stage for a major swap to bring in a high-end player. But that may not be in the plans, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link).

Notably, per the report, there have been some eyebrow-raising negotiations this winter. The Reds, Dodgers, and Indians discussed a deal that would’ve brought Corey Seager to Cincinnati and sent Francisco Lindor to L.A., with the Cleveland organization adding young talent. The Reds also held talks on scenarios in which they’d land Lindor.

It’s always fun to hear of big names being tossed around, but in this case it doesn’t seem the chatter gained any traction. At the moment, per Rosenthal, “talks involving Lindor appear dormant.”

That being said, adding two veteran outfielders to the mix certainly has created a crowded picture for the Reds. And the team is reportedly holding some talks regarding youngster Nick Senzel. From some angles, it still seems that further discussions could be sensible.

Trouble is, Rosenthal notes, the Reds’ intervening signings have absorbed the payroll flexibility that might’ve been needed to land Lindor. While Seager is cheaper, it’s not at all clear that he’s really in play as the Dodgers pursue other opportunities.

As ever, the situation can turn on a dime. And we’re certainly not seeing the entirety of the picture here. But it seems at minimum that the Reds did not ink Nick Castellanos with anything like a specific plan in place to pull off a corresponding trade. It’s equally true, though, that the Reds now have the flexibility — in young talent, if not payroll — to jump on an opportunity should one arise.

Blue Jays Have “Checked In” On Francisco Lindor, Had Interest in Didi Gregorius

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Most of the Blue Jays’ offseason focus has been on obtaining starting pitching, with Travis Shaw standing out as the most significant addition to the position player mix.  However, Toronto has also looked into some major upgrades to the everyday lineup, as Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi reports that the Jays had interest in Didi Gregorius before the free agent signed with Philadelphia.  In terms of players still potentially available, the Jays have also “checked in” with the Indians about a trade for Francisco Lindor.

It might be fair to characterize the Jays’ interest in Lindor as perhaps due diligence at this point.  As Davidi put it, “any sane front office” would naturally ask Cleveland about an All-Star player who has been the subject of trade rumors for months.  It doesn’t appear as though a Lindor trade (with the Jays or anyone) is happening any time soon, as both Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and manager Terry Francona have each recently indicated that Lindor isn’t being shopped.  While things could still change on that front, of course, the possibility of a Lindor deal decreased when the Tribe dealt Corey Kluber to the Rangers, thus lessening Cleveland’s payroll commitments for the 2020 season.

The multi-positional ability of young shortstop Bo Bichette and, in particular, incumbent second baseman Cavan Biggio factored into Toronto’s pursuits.  Both players expressed a willingness to change positions if it helps the team, and Biggio might end up playing a super-utility role regardless of who else the Jays might add.

Interestingly, Bichette wouldn’t have been changing positions had Gregorius been signed, as the Jays planned to use Gregorius as a second baseman.  GM Ross Atkins and president Mark Shapiro gave Bichette a heads-up about the Gregorius pursuit, with Bichette saying, “It was presented to me as, ’We’re going after Didi, don’t worry, we’ve already told him you’re our shortstop.’  I’d imagine that’s probably a reason why he didn’t come here.”

After also receiving interest from such teams as the Brewers, Giants, and Reds, Gregorius signed a one-year, $14MM contract with the Phillies to become their new regular shortstop.  (Gregorius himself displaced an incumbent shortstop in Jean Segura, who will now handle second base duties in Philadelphia.)  Toronto’s plan to deploy Gregorius at second base both indicates the club’s confidence in Bichette’s ability to handle the shortstop position and also some likely trepidation about Gregorius’ defensive ability going forward.  After coming back from Tommy John surgery in the fall of 2018, Gregorius’ glovework drew dire grades from the Defensive Runs Saved (-11) and infield outs above average (-13) metrics.

Indians’ Francona: “Lindor Not On Trading Block”

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Indians’ manager Terry Francona spoke clearly and confidently during an appearance on MLB Network Radio’s Remember When (audio link). According to Francona, Francisco Lindor is not on the trading block.

“I can guarantee you we’re not trying to trade Lindor. We have him for two more years. Keeping him is everybody’s goal. Also know that keeping him and fielding a competitive team is a challenge in our market. There’s no getting around that. It’s not gonna be easy. I think that’s as honest as you can be.”

This jibes more-or-less with what we’ve been hearing out of Cleveland for most of the offseason. Still, Francona lends the message a certain gravitas. If the tone was more forceful, the content doesn’t differ all that significantly from the the equivocating trafficked by front offices. The Indians, like many teams, are in a position of financial maneuvering. The payroll limits imposed by ownership charge the baseball ops department to act creatively and consider options at which they’d otherwise scoff.

Doom and gloom aside, the Indians aren’t devoid of talent. Despite missing the playoffs in 2019 to a Twins team that’s continued their full court press this winter, the Indians are coming off their fourth consecutive 90-win season. They won just one less game in 2020 than in 2016, the year they won the pennant.

Indians Avoid Arbitration With Francisco Lindor, Mike Clevinger

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4:23pm: Mike Clevinger also has a deal with the Cleveland org, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic (via Twitter). It’s a $4.1MM deal, per Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal (Twitter link).

Clevinger had projected for $400K more than the settlement point. As MLBTR’s Matt Swartz explained, there was a good argument for him to reach his $4.5MM projection. But the Indians were able to hold Clevinger to just under the amount secured by Kyle Hendricks in 2018.

1:48pm: The Indians have avoided arbitration with shortstop Francisco Lindor, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). He’ll reportedly earn $17.5MM in a deal that also includes some award incentives.

The arbitration model of MLBTR and Matt Swartz projected a $16.7MM salary for the still-youthful star. But it was an especially difficult number to gauge, as Matt explained in his recent look at Lindor’s arb case.

Interestingly, Matt had anticipated that his projection was a bit high. It turned out to be low. As he noted in that post, the difficulty was in sorting out how to handle the positional adjustment for Lindor. While recent raises for lumbering sluggers might have operated as caps for Lindor’s earnings, he obviously could and would have argued that his defensive proficiency should be weighed on the scale. The team obviously agreed — or, at least, felt there was a legitimate chance that an arbitrator would be swayed by such evidence.

This now makes for an important market marker to bear in mind in the future. Of course, it’s likelier to act as a ceiling unless a truly exceptional player comes along. Lindor, who just turned 26, swatted 32 home runs and slashed .284/.335/.518 in 654 plate appearances in 2019.

Antonetti Again Downplays Possibility Of Lindor Trade

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Francisco Lindor sat atop the wishlist of many fans and front offices alike throughout the holiday season, as teams ranging from the Dodgers to the Reds to the Mets were all repeatedly reported to have interest in Lindor. However, Cleveland president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti has stated in the past that he expects Lindor to be his Opening Day shortstop, and he was emphatic in reiterating that belief in a conference call with reporters Wednesday afternoon (audio link).

“Yes, I still have every expectation that Francisco will be our shortstop Opening Day,” Antonetti said when asked about the persistent trade rumors surrounding Lindor. “I’m more confident today in saying that, as more of the offseason has passed, but that’s still our expectation. I’ve tried to be pretty consistent with this. I have never had a different expectation other than Francisco will be our shortstop Opening Day.”

Despite Antonetti’s public, straightforward stance, there’s nevertheless been plenty of reporting on clubs with interest and speculation on trade packages that could appeal to the Indians. Names like Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Nick Senzel and Jeff McNeil have been kicked about the rumor mill in various writings on Lindor, but Antonetti strongly suggested that he’s not the one initiating any talks on Lindor.

“I can’t control the conduct of other teams and them calling us with interest and wanting to explore things,” Antonetti continued. “As I’ve shared with you, we have a responsibility to be responsive to those teams when they engage with us. I can say that we’ve had conversations on the majority of our Major League roster and a bunch of players in our minor league system over the course of the offseason. The majority of those guys, with the exception of just a couple, are still with us.”

The Indians, of course, pulled the trigger on a Corey Kluber trade last month and have been widely reported to be aiming to scale back their payroll after reaching record levels on the heels of their 2016 World Series run. But Cleveland’s Opening Day payroll is projected to check in shy of $100MM — shy of $95MM if Jason Kipnis’ buyout is counted against last year’s budget — placing them well south of their Opening Day marks in 2019 ($119MM), 2018 ($135MM) and 2017 ($124MM). As such, it’s unlikely that there’s any financial pressure to move Lindor and his projected $16.7MM salary (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

Moreover, despite their trade of Kluber, the Indians aren’t embarking on any kind of rebuilding effort heading into 2020. They’re still intent on contending with the reigning AL Central champion Twins and the vastly improved White Sox as they look to take advantage of another year in which at least 40 percent of the division is rebuilding. Trading Lindor, even for a package of appealing MLB-ready talent, harms their chances of doing so.

It’s surely a frustrating carousel for Antonetti, as rumors of interest in Lindor won’t cease until Opening Day — and that will only bring a temporary reprieve. Even if Lindor remains with the club, he’ll surely be at least mentioned leading up to the July 31 trade deadline, even if the Indians are in the thick of the division race as most expect them to be. Reports of teams showing interest in Lindor and working to pry him from Cleveland’s grasp will persist, but Antonetti’s latest comments serve as yet another reminder that an actual trade involving the 26-year-old four-time All-Star isn’t especially likely.

Arbitration Breakdown: Francisco Lindor

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Francisco Lindor enters his second year of arbitration eligibility coming off a $10.55MM salary in 2019, yet another solid campaign. Lindor hit .284 with 32 home runs and 74 runs batted in, stole 22 bases, and accumulated 654 plate appearances on the way to his fourth straight All-Star appearance and his second Gold Glove. My model projects Lindor earn $16.7MM, good for a $6.15MM raise.

It is very difficult to find comparable players for the talented shortstop. Looking for middle infielders from the past half-decade who hit 25 home runs going into their second year of eligibility provides only two names. Both players are second basemen and have much weaker cases than Lindor. In 2017, Jonathan Schoop batted .293 with 32 home runs and 105 runs batted in, stealing just a single base. The same year, Scooter Gennett hit .295 with 27 homers, 97 runs batted in and just three stolen bases. They got raises of $5.0 and $3.2 million, respectively. Considering Lindor stole way more stolen bases and plays a more premium position, he clearly has a better case. He should earn north of the $5MM raise that Schoop received three years ago.

Looking for a shortstop is clearly not a fruitful endeavor, though. The largest ever raise for a second-time-eligible shortstop was $2.83MM for Brandon Crawford in 2016. But he only hit .256, belted just 21 home runs, and stole a mere six bases. His case then was clearly inferior to Lindor’s now.

If we expand to look at other positions beyond the middle infield, some other potential names emerge. George Springer got a two-year deal when he had a similar .283/34/85 performance two seasons ago—although only with five stolen bases—but he had filed for a $6.6MM raise, while the Astros offered a $4.6MM increase. His two-year agreement probably assumes the midpoint. If nothing else, the $4.6MM figure is a floor if Schoop’s $5 million was not.

Justifying the model’s estimate of a $6.15MM raise is harder. But some of the players who have landed raises in that neighborhood had stronger performances. Khris Davis got a $5.5MM raise two years ago after belting 43 home runs and knocking in 110 runs. Davis hit at his standard .247 clip, but his power numbers may make him a ceiling for Lindor. Of course, the positional adjustment is hard. Marcell Ozuna picked up a $5.5MM raise in 2018, too, after he hit .312/37/124 as an outfielder. Still, one could argue that Lindor’s .284/32/74 line is inferior.

I think that somewhere between $5MM and $5.5MM is a reasonable guess for Lindor, which would put him around $15.5MM to $16MM. The model is clearly struggling to find where Lindor’s salary as is, just like we have done in this article, but I do think it landed high.

Latest On Dodgers’ Interest In Mookie Betts

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The Dodgers have been linked to several superstar players in both free agency and potential trades this winter, though with so many of the big free agents already signed elsewhere, the trade market might be Los Angeles’ best avenue to land a major roster upgrade.  To this end, the Dodgers have continued to explore the possibility of acquiring Mookie Betts from the Red Sox, according to MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi.

The deal could potentially be expanded to involve multiple players heading from Boston to Chavez Ravine, as Morosi suggests that David Price might be a fit as the veteran arm the Dodgers are looking to add to their rotation.  With the Red Sox looking to cut payroll and ideally get under the luxury tax threshold, rumors have swirled all winter about Price, Betts, and other high-priced Boston names being floated as trade chips.  Betts is projected for a hefty $27.7MM salary in his final year of arbitration, though that’s certainly a reasonable price to pay (especially for a big-market team like the Dodgers) for one of the sport’s very best players.

As game-changing as the idea of a Betts trade may be, the Sox aren’t actively trying to deal him, since the club would naturally prefer to explore other cost-saving options before parting ways with the 2018 AL MVP.  Moving Price and the $96MM owed to the southpaw through 2022 would be one of those preferred options.  While the Sox have drummed up some trade interest in Price, however, it still seems unlikely that a suitor would take on most of that contract given Price’s age (34) and recent injury concerns.

Moving Betts along with Price would definitely make a trade suitors more willing to absorb perhaps even all of Price’s contract, though obviously the Red Sox aren’t willing to move Betts just for the sake of a salary dump.  Indeed, Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom recently downplayed the idea of giving away any sort of younger talent along with Price, saying “so much of what we’re always going to be trying to accomplish, but certainly now, is to make sure we have as strong a farm system as possible.”

Morosi opines that the Red Sox would want one of the Dodgers’ top young pitchers (i.e. Dustin May or Tony Gonsolin) as part of a trade, though “Boston appears less insistent on” including infielder Gavin Lux as part of a trade package.  It could be for this reason that L.A. is perhaps currently more focused on Betts than on Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, another All-Star who has been heavily rumored to be on the Dodgers’ list of targets.  The Lindor talks appear to be in something of a stalemate — Cleveland has continued to demand Lux in any deal for Lindor, while the Dodgers think so highly of Lux’s potential that they “have refused to include him in any offer for Lindor alone.”  The Dodgers are also known to be pursuing Cleveland righty Mike Clevinger, so it’s safe to assume that some multi-player offers have been floated in the Tribe’s direction.

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