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The Best Fits For Harrison Bader, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk

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A somewhat surprising trend began yesterday when the Angels placed six members of their active roster on outright waivers: Lucas Giolito, Hunter Renfroe, Reynaldo Lopez, Matt Moore, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. The White Sox (Mike Clevinger), Mets (Carlos Carrasco) and Tigers (Jose Cisnero) all followed suit, to varying degrees.

In many ways, it hearkens back to the days of revocable August trade waivers, when it was common for teams to run the majority of their roster through trade waivers. That led to what was effectively a second trade deadline at the end of August, as high-priced veterans who’d gone unclaimed were free to be moved. This set of circumstances, however, is quite different.

The players waived by the Angels, White Sox, Mets and Tigers are on irrevocable outright waivers. Any team that is awarded a claim on one of these players immediately takes on the remainder of that player’s contract. If one of these veterans goes unclaimed — it’s likely that a few of them will — their current team does not have to outright them to a minor league affiliate. They can simply return said player to their active roster and continue playing him as normal. (The Angels reportedly already passed Tyler Anderson through outright waivers last week and just kept him on the roster after he went unclaimed.) Similarly, these players are quite obviously free to keep playing. Many of them played last night. Renfroe literally hit a home run as I was typing this paragraph. Waivers are fun!

The outright waiver period is 48 hours, meaning we’ll have resolution on everyone from this group at some point tomorrow afternoon (though news of the claims being awarded could be staggered a bit). Waiver priority is determined based on reverse order of winning percentage and is not league specific. League-specific waiver priority was unique to revocable August trade waivers and is now defunct. It’s a common misconception that it remains in place, but MLBTR has confirmed with league sources on multiple occasions that waiver priority is simply worst team through best team — in this case, starting with the A’s and ending with the Braves. More specifically, waiver priority is determined based on the reverse standings on the day players clear waivers, meaning we’ll know the final waiver priority for all of these veterans once tonight’s games are wrapped up.

That’s a whole bunch of preamble that may or may not have been necessary, depending on your prior understanding of waiver minutiae. It felt pertinent to do a brief crash course, however, given the unusual nature of this sequence of moves and the major ramifications it could hold with teams in a tight playoff race.

It’s fair to assume the non-contenders are going to pass on picking up any of these players — they’re all impending free agents — but any club with a glimmer of postseason hope could place a claim. That technically includes the Guardians and the Padres, although both are long shots, at best to play meaningful games in October. FanGraphs gives Cleveland and San Diego respective playoff odds of 3.3% and 1.8%, while Baseball Prospectus has the Guards at just 1.6% and the Friars at what seems like a generous 7%. You can never rule out the Padres on big-name players, but they’re already in the third tier of luxury penalization, so anyone they acquire will come with a 75% tax. It’d be a steep price to pay, but hey, when has that ever stopped president of baseball ops A.J. Preller and owner Peter Seidler?

We’re writing about the best fits for this trio of outfielders, however, and the “best” fit doesn’t seem like a team whose playoff hopes are the rough equivalent of hitting a one-outer on the river in a hand of Texas Hold ’Em. So, with all that said, let’s take a look at each outfielder, how much he’s still owed on his contract, his strengths/flaws, whether he’s likely to be claimed at all, and where he might best fit among the group of contenders who’ll have priority over the Braves, Orioles, Dodgers, Rays and Mariners (i.e. the upper echelon of MLB’s standings).

Harrison Bader
Age: 29 | Bats: R | Salary: $4.7MM ($783K yet to be paid out) | Position: Center Field

Bader is the youngest, the cheapest and the likeliest of this trio to be claimed. Age and salary play a major role in that, but so does his glove. Bader isn’t just the best defensive outfielder of this bunch — he’s one of the best defensive outfielders in Major League Baseball. He can play any of the three outfield spots, but the defense is so strong that it’s almost a waste to have him anywhere other than center. In 4243 innings of center field play at the big league level, Bader has piled up 43 Defensive Runs Saved and a mammoth 61 Outs Above Average.

For some further context, Bader’s 4243 innings in center field from 2017-23 rank just 96th among all big league players in terms of total innings played at one position. But he nevertheless ranks 18th among all Major Leaguers in Defensive Runs Saved and seventh in Outs Above Average. In other words, even though 95 players have had a larger sample of innings to rack up accolades in that pair of cumulative defensive metrics, Bader still has higher totals than nearly all of them.

Prior to the 2023 season, Bader has been more or less a league-average hitter. From 2018-22, he batted .245/.319/.407 — good for a 98 wRC+. By that measure, he was 2% worse than a big league hitter. For a player with this type of defensive talent, that made him a standout all-around performer. This year, however, has seen his bat take a step back. Bader is fanning at a career-low 18%, but he’s hitting just .239/.275/.365. He’s walking less than ever, hitting more fly balls than ever before, and seeing just 6.5% of those flies turn into home runs (the second-lowest mark of his career).

One thing Bader is doing quite well — and that he’s always done well — is torching left-handed pitching. He’s a career .267/.332/.508 batter against southpaws, but in 2023 he’s absolutely demolishing lefties at a .348/.389/.697 clip. Granted, it’s only 72 plate appearances, but Bader has nonetheless been a behemoth when holding the platoon advantage.

Any team can stand to improve its outfield defense, but there are still a few contenders who could make particular use of this type of glove. The Marlins have been seeking a center fielder for years. They rank 29th in the Majors with -19 DRS and are tied for 22nd with -7 OAA. The Phillies, Red Sox, Giants and Cubs all grade as below-average defensive outfield units, too. As far as production against lefties, the Giants, Diamondbacks, Twins and Reds are all bunched tightly together in terms of wRC+ (ranging San Francisco’s 90 to Cincinnati’s 94). The Brewers are also at 94, but they’re currently tied with the Rangers and Astros for the sixth-worst waiver priority in MLB. It’s hard to imagine Bader falling that far.

The Twins have a similar skill set here (Michael A. Taylor) and are hoping to get Byron Buxton back soon. The Cubs and Red Sox make some sense — Boston in particular, after Jarren Duran’s injury — but both are a ways down the waiver pecking order. Bader would make any contending team better — even if only as a bench player — but he seems like a particularly good fit for the Marlins or the Giants.

Hunter Renfroe
Age: 31 | Bats: R | Salary: $11.9MM ($1.98MM remaining) | Position: Right field

Renfroe’s salary is significant enough that he’s not a lock to be claimed at all — particularly since he’s in the midst of a down year at the plate (the aforementioned homer notwithstanding). A well above-average hitter with the Red Sox and Brewers in 2021-22 when he batted .257/.315/.496, Renfroe finds himself batting .239/.301/.430 on the year — about 3% worse than average, per wRC+. He’s hitting more grounders than he has since his rookie season, popping up more often than ever, and has seen both his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate drop to nearly career-low levels.

Earlier in his career, Renfroe was considered a premium defensive outfielder, but his sprint speed and outfield reads have degraded over the past few years, per Statcast. His raw arm strength still sits in the 92nd percentile of MLB players, so opposing baserunners will want to think twice about tagging up when Renfroe is on the receiving end of a fly-ball, but Renfroe’s range simply isn’t what it once was. DRS pegs him at -8, while OAA is a bit more favorable but still gives him a mark of -3.

Traditionally, Renfroe has punished left-handed pitching. He’s a lifetime .261/.342/.523 hitter against lefties in the big leagues, but this season has seen that production muted. Nearly all of Renfroe’s power has come against right-handed opponents; he’s hitting .250/.304/.356 against lefties, with a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than he currently sports against right-handed opponents.

Renfroe was hot-potato’ed around the league even during more productive times, bouncing to four teams in four years — Rays, Red Sox, Brewers, Angels — a reflection of the manner in which the market has generally deprioritized/devalued bat-first corner players with OBP concerns. It’ll now cost a team just shy of $2MM to rent him for one month, and that may be a price at which some clubs balk.

That said, Renfroe has some track record and has still been a roughly average hitter in 2023. He’d be an upgrade over bench bats that are being rostered even on a number of contending clubs, and a team dealing with injuries in the outfield could certainly view him as a potential difference-maker.

While the Marlins could use Bader in center, they’re well-stocked on corner options and have Jorge Soler at DH. The Red Sox and Brewers have both already traded Renfroe once. The Giants (Mitch Haniger) and D-backs (Tommy Pham) have relatively similar players. The Twins could view Renfroe as a viable upgrade over Jordan Luplow or the struggling Joey Gallo, and the Reds are a fit with Jake Fraley, Joey Votto and Jonathan India on the injured list. Renfroe could push Nick Senzel back to Triple-A. If Renfroe makes it to the Mariners, he could be an upgrade over Dominic Canzone in left field with Jarred Kelenic out. The Dodgers could certainly afford to add Renfroe with J.D. Martinez on the injured list and a slew of lefty-hitting outfield options — if he makes it that far.

Randal Grichuk
Age: 32 | Bats: R | Salary: $9.333MM ($1.55MM remaining) | Position: All three outfield spots

Grichuk was having a strong season with the Rockies, batting .308/.365/.496 in 263 plate appearances, but his bat cratered following a trade to the Halos. In 104 plate appearances since the swap, he’s batted .165/.212/.351 with a 25% strikeout rate that’s considerably higher than the 19.4% mark he posted in Denver.

Grichuk has long been a limited player despite tools that suggest otherwise. Statcast annually grades him with above-average speed and arm strength, but he’s never been a threat to steal bases and has drawn inconsistent (at best) grades for his defense around the outfield. He’s probably best-suited for corner work at this point, but the Rox and Angels have given him 143 innings in center this year. He has more than 3000 career innings in both center and right, in addition to nearly 1200 innings in left, so he’s at least going to feel familiar with whichever outfield slot he plays.

While he’s long shown above-average power — career .216 ISO, career-high 31 homers back in 2019, five seasons of 20-plus homers — Grichuk’s offensive value is regularly undercut by his distaste for walks. He’s drawn a free pass in just 5.6% of his career plate appearances, resulting in a lifetime OBP under .300 (.296).

That said, it may be a limited skill set, but Grichuk shines in one particular area: tormenting left-handed pitching. He’s hitting .330/.394/.596 against lefties in 2023 and is a career .266/.314/.503 hitter in such situations.

Grichuk is a bit more affordable than Renfroe, is having a much better season against lefties, and can play center in a pinch, so he may hold more appeal. That same group of the Giants, D-backs, Twins, Reds and Brewers could all use help against southpaws. The Giants are deep in right-handed outfielders though, and the D-backs have Pham to fill a similar role. The Reds and Twins could look at Grichuk for the same reasons they might consider Renfroe, and the Brewers could look at him as a boost against lefties who’d take some pressure off struggling Tyrone Taylor and young Sal Frelick.

Yankees Place Harrison Bader On Waivers

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The Yankees have placed center fielder Harrison Bader on waivers, reports Erik Boland of Newsday (Twitter link). As is the case with the Angels’ series of waiver placements, New York’s hope is that another team will claim the remaining salary on a player who was headed to free agency in a couple months.

To be clear, these are irrevocable waivers — either of the outright or release variety. The previous system of August waiver trades — where a team could rescind a placement if another club made a claim and the two sides didn’t work out a trade — was done away with in 2019. Whichever claiming team with the highest waiver priority as of Thursday morning will get Bader while taking on the remainder of his arbitration salary. (The waiver priority is in inverse order of the MLB standings and is not league-specific.) The Yankees won’t receive any compensation besides the salary relief. In the unlikely event that he goes unclaimed, New York could opt to keep him on the major league roster for the stretch run.

It’s probably the end of Bader’s year-plus long tenure in the Bronx. New York acquired him at last summer’s deadline in a surprising one-for-one swap that sent Jordan Montgomery to St. Louis. Both players had a season and a half of remaining arbitration control at the time, making it a rather straightforward swap of veterans among contending clubs to address positions of need.

The deal worked out better for St. Louis, as Montgomery has stayed healthy and performed at an upper mid-rotation level since leaving New York. Bader played well at times for the Yankees — headlined by his five homers in nine postseason games last October — but continued dealing with various injury concerns that have plagued him throughout his career.

Bader has landed on the injured list twice this season. He started the year on the shelf with an oblique strain and missed a few weeks with a hamstring issue. He has struggled mightily since returning on June 20, slumping to a .230/.272/.304 batting line in 55 contests. His season slash is down to .242/.279/.370 with just seven homers through 302 plate appearances.

It’s arguably the worst offensive showing of Bader’s career. While he’s never posted huge on-base numbers, this year’s mark is a personal low. It’s the 11th-lowest figure for a hitter with 300+ trips to the dish. Bader is avoiding strikeouts but very rarely walks and has hit just .274 on balls in play.

The offensive struggles are ill-timed for a player on the verge of his first trip to the open market. Yet his secondary skills are strong enough he’s likely to attract interest from another team down the stretch. Bader is a plus defensive center fielder who has again rated highly in his 655 1/3 innings there this season. He has stolen 16 bases in 18 attempts. He at least looks the part of a high-end fourth outfielder, even if other teams are reluctant to displace their starting center fielder for a player who hasn’t hit well of late.

Bader is only likely to appeal to teams in playoff contention. He’ll still be a free agent at year’s end. Taking on what remains of his $5.2MM salary (a little under $900K) only appeals to teams with a shot at contending. The Yankees would save that amount in salary, plus the 75% tax they’re paying for exceeding the CBT for a second straight season. With New York out of playoff contention and Bader’s rough season taking him out of consideration to receive a qualifying offer, the Yankees have decided to make him available to other clubs.

Latest On Yankees’ Deadline Approach

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With the Yankees in last place in the AL East despite a decent 55-51 record, their path forward remains somewhat murky with less than four hours to go before the trade deadline. Joel Sherman of the New York Post indicates that the club could look to both buy and sell, searching for long-term controllable pieces in areas of need while fielding offers on the pending free agents on their roster.

Several of the club’s pending free agents, including Luis Severino and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, have had difficult seasons in 2023, but could nonetheless draw interest as low-cost, depth additions from other clubs. Lefty Wandy Peralta, who has a 2.29 ERA in 47 appearances out of New York’s bullpen this year, and center fielder Harrison Bader have both fared better in their walk years, with Bader in particular drawing interest per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. Sherman more specifically notes that the Yankees and Phillies have discussed Bader, though there is “limited traction” on a deal between the sides.

Sherman adds that the Yankees have discussed closer Clay Holmes in trade talks, despite Holmes being controllable through the 2024 campaign. That being said, Sherman noted that the asking price for Holmes is exorbitant, rendering a deal regarding the club’s closer unlikely. The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty adds to that doubt, noting that it’s “highly unlikely” the club parts with either Holmes or fellow leverage reliever Michael King.

As far as buying goes, the club has been frequently connected to Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson in the days and weeks leading up to the deadline, and those connections haven’t stopped today. Kuty, Sherman, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand have are among those who have linked the Yankees and Carlson recently. That being said, Heyman cautions that the Cardinals are unlikely to deal Carlson unless they get a young MLB starter in return. That’s a price the Yankees could pay if they so chose, with youngsters Clarke Schmidt and Jhony Brito currently occupying spots in the club’s starting rotation.

As Feinsand notes, that Carlson’s ability to play quality defense in center field could be of particular value given Bader’s status as a pending free agent. Carlson could take over for Bader in center immediately in the event of a trade before the deadline, or play left field for the remainder of the 2023 campaign and shift over to center in the event Bader departs via free agency this offseason.

Yankees Open To Offers On Impending Free Agents

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The Yankees dropped tonight’s 5-1 contest to the Rays. They’re at 55-51 heading into the deadline, last place in the AL East despite being four games above .500. New York is only 3.5 out of a Wild Card spot and recently welcomed Aaron Judge back, but they’ve gone 21-27 since the start of June.

With around 18 hours before the deadline, general manager Brian Cashman and his front office find themselves with a difficult balancing act. Whether to add for a playoff push, entertain offers on veterans, or attempt to walk the line by doing both is in question. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported before tonight’s loss that the Yankees were telling other clubs they’re willing to entertain trade offers on their impending free agents.

Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem the Yankees are strictly bucketing themselves as “sellers.” Buster Olney of ESPN tweeted this afternoon New York was still searching the market for outfield help. Meanwhile, Derrick Goold of the St, Louis Post Dispatch reports the Yanks are among the teams that have reached out to the Cardinals on starter Jack Flaherty — though it isn’t clear how recent that interest is.

It seems Cashman and his front office could entertain multiple moves that blur the line between buying and selling. Their impending free agents are having relatively disappointing seasons, though they could find varying levels of interest in each (not including Frankie Montas and Josh Donaldson, whose injuries and high salaries make them essentially impossible to move).

Harrison Bader has continued to battle injury issues, missing time with oblique and hamstring problems. He’s gotten into 57 games, connecting on seven homers but with a modest .283 on-base percentage. While it’s his second straight below-average offensive showing, Bader is an elite center fielder and has stolen 10 bags in 12 attempts. He’s playing on a $4.7MM salary and should have a decent amount of appeal on a trade market light on position player talent.

Left-hander Wandy Peralta would be a fairly straightforward target for clubs seeking relief depth. He’s holding same-handed hitters to a putrid .091/.242/.091 batting line in 67 plate appearances. Peralta has a 2.29 ERA in 37 1/3 innings overall. His strikeout and walk numbers are both subpar but he’s picking up grounders at an elite 64.1% clip while averaging 96 MPH on his sinker. He’s making $3.35MM in his final arbitration season.

There’d be less appeal with either Luis Severino or Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The former is playing on a lofty $15MM salary and having a nightmarish season. He’s been tagged for a 7.49 ERA across 12 starts. His formerly plus strikeout rates have fallen to a meager 18% clip. Severino’s velocity remains intact, but he’s not missing bats on either his changeup or slider at typical levels and is giving up tons of hard contact.

Kiner-Falefa, playing on a $6MM arbitration salary, has moved into a multi-positional role after serving as the primary shortstop in 2022. He’s spending the bulk of his time in the outfield, where he has slightly below-average reviews from public defensive marks. Kiner-Falefa is hitting .257/.322/.374 in 240 trips to the plate, making plenty of contact without much power.

Flaherty, of course, is an impending free agent himself. If New York’s interest in the Cards’ righty was somewhat recent, it’d obviously be with this season in mind. It’s hard to imagine the Yankees completely throwing in the towel in 2023. Each of their impending free agents is having a middling (or downright poor) enough season that they could move someone in the group while still looking for immediate help in other areas.

There could also be financial considerations at play. Roster Resource projects the Yankees’ competitive balance tax number just above $294MM. That’s a bit north of the $293MM that marks the highest tier of luxury penalization. Offseason reports indicated Yankees’ ownership was reluctant to go above that mark, although there are no non-monetary penalties for doing so. Offloading the money still owed to the likes of Bader or Peralta could allow them to dip below that number.

Players like Gleyber Torres and Clay Holmes are into arbitration and would surely attract interest from other clubs, though there’s nothing to suggest the Yankees on taking offers on players who can be controlled beyond this season. Both Torres and Holmes are eligible for arbitration once more.

Yankees Notes: Judge, Deadline Approach, Florial

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The Yankees have dropped three straight games and have now tallied just two victories in their past 10 contests. Sitting in the unfamiliar setting of last place in the American League East, there are mounting questions about the team’s trade deadline approach. It would be out of character, to say the least, for the Yankees to engineer a wide-scale selloff at the deadline. And with New York still only two and a half games back from an AL Wild Card spot, that seems decidedly unlikely.

That said, the Yankees also have a porous roster, particularly with Aaron Judge on the injured list and facing a nebulous timeline for his return. General manager Brian Cashman said yesterday that it’s fair to characterize Judge’s return as “close” before taking a noncommittal stance on whether that constituted a matter of days or weeks (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). It remains unclear when the reigning AL MVP will return to the lineup; the Yankees are hitting .223/.294/.374 as a team in his absence.

With the team reeling and currently in the AL East cellar, there have naturally been calls from the fans for the Yankees to sell at the deadline, a possibility that was discussed on the most recent episode of the MLBTR Podcast. At least to some extent, that could wind up being the case. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that the Yankees could work to dip under the top tier of the luxury tax in over the next couple weeks. Presumably, that’d come by dealing away short-term players — those who’ll reach free agency at season’s end or perhaps those controlled only through the 2024 season.

At least with regard to their crop of impending free agents, however, that could be easier said than done. Luis Severino has struggled to a 6.66 ERA in 48 2/3 innings thus far, and the underlying metrics don’t give much cause for optimism. His 17.4% strikeout rate is a career-low, and his 9.4% walk rate is the second-highest of his career. He’s averaged 2.22 homers per nine innings pitched, yielding hard contact at the highest rate of his career, and is sitting on career-low swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates.

Utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa, meanwhile, is hitting just .251/.309/.369. That’s 11% worse than average, by measure of wRC+. Acquired to be a stopgap at shortstop, Kiner-Falefa has just eight innings at that position in 2023 and has been used primarily as an outfielder this season. Defensive metrics haven’t provided a strong review of his glovework there, however.

Center fielder Harrison Bader is also a free agent at season’s end and is playing his customary brand of standout defense. However, his .275 on-base percentage also ranks 295th of the 326 players with at least 150 plate appearances this season. His overall .246/.275/.427 batting line checks in below average.

Frankie Montas, of course, hasn’t thrown a pitch this season. Trading any of Severino ($15MM in 2023), Montas ($7.5MM), Kiner-Falefa ($6MM) or Bader ($4.7MM) could be enough to dip the Yankees under the top tier of luxury penalization, as Roster Resource currently has them at $294.1MM — just $1.1MM over the limit.

The most palatable rental option for the Yankees to trade would be southpaw Wandy Peralta, who’s earning $3.35MM this season. He’s currently sporting a 2.48 ERA, but his 19.5% strikeout rate is below average and his 13.6% walk rate is an obvious eyesore. Still, Peralta is averaging just shy of 96 mph on his heater and also possesses a huge 63.2% ground-ball rate.

Rosenthal speculates on the possibility of a Gleyber Torres trade, which could simultaneously fetch more talent in return and also trim payroll more than any of those rentals aside from Severino. He’s earning $9.95MM in 2023 and hitting a solid .264/.333/.430 with 14 homers. The Yankees also have an in-house, MLB-ready alternative in young Oswald Peraza, who struggled in the Majors earlier but is slashing a .261/.352/.495 in Triple-A.

Looking at the situation as a whole, however, the final tax barrier is an odd line to draw in the sand. It’s a purely monetary line of penalization, and the Yankees are only narrowly north of it. The Yankees already committed to having their top pick in next year’s draft pushed back by 10 places when they exceeded the third tier of penalty, which sits at $273MM.

Striving to dip under that threshold would perhaps be logical but also unrealistic; trimming more than $21MM from the remaining payroll at this juncture of the season would be immensely difficult. Trades at this stage would only spare the Yankees the remainder those players’ salaries. That’s roughly $5.3MM on Severino, $1.7MM on Bader, $2.1MM on Kiner-Falefa, $1.2MM on Peralta and $3.5MM on Torres. Even trading that entire quintet would only get the Yankees about two-thirds of the way there.

None of that even takes into consideration the possibility of the Yankees simultaneously adding pieces, either. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted earlier in the week that in addition to the Yankees’ desire to upgrade in the outfield, they’ve been monitoring the catching, starting pitching and bullpen markets. That wide swath of needs speaks to the predicament in which the Yankees currently find themselves, but it’s notable that as of Monday the team appeared set on — or at least open to adding some pieces. Both Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson and Rockies outfielder Randal Grichuk have been of some interest to the Yankees, per Feinsand. Carlson, controlled through 2026, would be an affordable and long-term solution in the outfield.

The Yankees potentially have another affordable and controllable option down in Triple-A, where former top prospect Estevan Florial has put together a huge season. Designated for assignment on Opening Day and unclaimed on waivers, Florial has batted .291/.388/.535 with an already career-high 21 homers in just 335 plate appearances.

That production hasn’t been enough to get him a look in the big leagues, however. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic took a look at Florial’s situation, speaking to Triple-A skipper Shelley Duncan and others about the 25-year-old’s work ethic and motivation in the wake of that DFA and subsequent outright. It’s frankly surprising that the Yankees have continued to lean on journeymen Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun, Franchy Cordero and the aforementioned Kiner-Falefa in the outfield rather than give Florial some type of audition. Kuty suggests the team could look to trade him at the deadline, which could be a means of adding help in another area.

Broadly speaking, it’s strange to be discussing the Yankees in this context. They’re typically a motivated buyer at the trade deadline, one that has often acted aggressively and decisively in an effort to tighten their existing grip on a postseason spot. It’s a different feel in the Bronx this season, however, and various, simultaneous reports regarding payroll reduction, selling off short-term players and the possibility to add at virtually any spot on the roster only underscore the uncertainty surrounding the team.

We increasingly see modern front offices toe the line between “buyer” and “seller,” making moves in both directions in a given deadline season. The Yankees appear poised for such a hybrid approach to the ’23 deadline, though their play in the next couple weeks will surely prove instructive as well. If they’re able to right the ship and go on a winning streak of any note, Cashman & Co. could be emboldened to make moves that fall closer to the win-now side of the scale. Should the pendulum swing in the other direction, there’d be more urgency to take a step back and employ a longer-term focus.

The Yankees have one more game in Anaheim, where they’ve already lost two, before returning home to host struggling Royals and Mets teams for a combined five games. They’ll then head to Baltimore for three games and have one game against the division-leading Rays before the deadline rolls around. Their performance against a pair of sub-.500 teams on that homestand and in the subsequent four games against the top two teams in their own division will be worth watching with a careful eye; every win or loss is crucial at this point.

Carlos Rodón To Begin Rehab Assignment

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The Yankees announced that left-hander Carlos Rodón has been sent to Double-A Somerset to begin a rehab assignment. Additionally, outfielder Harrison Bader was activated from the injured list, taking the spot of infielder/outfielder Oswaldo Cabrera, who was optioned following Sunday night’s game.

Rodón, 30, became a Yankee this winter by signing a six-year, $162MM contract but has yet to make his regular season debut in pinstripes. He was diagnosed with a forearm strain in March and began the season on the injured list. He initially seemed set for a brief absence, as he started working his way back in April. However, he was then waylaid by some back tightness that was eventually diagnosed by doctors as being a “chronic” issue.

In early May, the lefty received a cortisone injection and has been ramping up his activities since then. He started throwing shortly after that, eventually progressing to mound work and facing live hitters. Now he’s set for the final hurdle, pitching in minor league games. Rehab assignments for pitchers can last up to 30 days, so it might still be a few weeks before he rejoins the Yankees. But it’s nonetheless a good sign that their big offseason pitching acquisition is getting closer.

Health has been a key factor in Rodón’s career. He was drafted by the White Sox with the third overall pick in 2014 and quickly became one of the top prospects in the sport. He performed well in 2015 and 2016 but then injuries started holding him back. Biceps bursitis and arthroscopic shoulder surgery made him miss big parts of his 2017 and 2018 seasons before Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2019 and 2020 campaigns.

The trajectory got much better in the years after that, as he came back in 2021 with 24 starts and a 2.37 ERA. He was eventually shut down with some shoulder fatigue in August, but it was nonetheless encouraging after so many frustrating setbacks. He became a free agent and there was still some hesitation from the open market, forcing him to settle for a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants, though one that would allow him to opt out as long as he pitched 110 innings. He took another step forward by making 31 starts last year with a 2.88 ERA, 33.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 34.1% ground ball rate.

Based on that strong platform, it was an easy decision for him to opt out and cash in. Since he seemed to be moving away from his injury-prone label, the Yankees took a shot on him but his health hasn’t cooperated thus far. He’s now walking a familiar road, working his way back to the mound after a significant absence.

His return would certainly be a welcome development for the Yankees, who have also been without Frankie Montas all year while Nestor Cortes posted a 5.16 ERA before landing on the injured list himself. Luis Severino is back with the team after his own IL stint but he has a 6.30 ERA through his first six starts. Gerrit Cole, Clarke Schmidt and Domingo Germán have avoided the IL thus far, though Germán missed a couple of turns due to a sticky stuff suspension. Amid all of those challenges, the club has had to turn to depth options like Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito on occasion.

Despite all of that shuffling, the club has managed to tread water, currently sporting a record of 39-33 that’s good enough for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. But with three teams within a game and a half and a few more clubs lurking just behind those, the importance of each game is going to be magnified going forward, making the return of a difference-maker like Rodón a potentially significant boost for the Yankees.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Manoah, Bader, Fleming, Kittredge

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The Red Sox are looking to acquire an infielder who can play multiple positions, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam writes, with a focus on the middle infield.  McAdam notes that Aledmys Diaz’s name has “been linked to the Red Sox,” though it isn’t clear how deep talks might be between the Sox and Athletics.  Diaz is struggling through a tough season (.208/.266/.264 over 173 plate appearances) but he is also an experienced player who could help a Boston infield that is still trying to figure itself out, particularly at shortstop until Trevor Story is healthy.  That said, Diaz’s contract is hefty enough that he would be more than a stopgap, as Diaz is owed roughly $4.1MM for the rest of this season and then $8MM in 2024.  The A’s are naturally looking to unload salary and might eat some of that money, but one would imagine the Sox might explore cheaper options if they truly only want a short-term option.

The Sox could possibly also be dangling an infielder in trade talks as the deadline approaches, if the team wants to move on from Bobby Dalbec.  The former top prospect was already the subject of trade speculation over the winter, and Triston Casas seems to have supplanted Dalbec as Boston’s next first baseman of the future.  Back at Triple-A for much of this season, Dalbec is posting big numbers, and a scout told McAdam that “I thought he looked much more confident at the plate, with more of a plan.”  That said, the scout has a modest view of Dalbec’s trade value, saying “my guess is, he’s only a second piece in a (larger) deal, or the only piece for an average bullpen arm or some infield depth.’”

Some more from around the AL East…

  • Alek Manoah threw 75 pitches during a simulated game on Friday, and is slated for another sim game later this week.  Blue Jays manager John Schneider told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi and other reporters on Friday that “everything that we were talking about in terms of delivery and stuff [for Manoah] was good, so making some good strides in the right direction.”  A proper minor league rehab game could follow the next simulating outing, meaning that Manoah could be back with the Jays by July 1 if all goes well, though the plan is still quite fluid given the unusual nature of Manoah’s situation.  The third-place finisher in AL Cy Young voting in 2022, Manoah posted a 6.36 ERA over his first 58 innings this season, pitching so poorly that the Blue Jays optioned him to their Florida complex in order to fully explore what has gone awry.
  • Harrison Bader is slated to be activated from the 10-day injured list on Tuesday, Yankees manager Aaron Boone told The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty and other reporters.  The initial aim was for Bader to return this weekend, but the outfielder requested a couple of extra minor league rehab games in order to better test his injured hamstring.  Bader gave Boone a positive report via text message last night, so everything seems lined up for Tuesday when the Yankees host the Mariners.  Between an oblique strain and his hamstring strain, Bader has been limited to 26 games this season, and his return will be a huge boost to a New York outfield that is still missing Aaron Judge.
  • Rays manager Kevin Cash updated reporters (including Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times) on some injured player, including Josh Fleming and Andrew Kittredge.  Fleming is on the 60-day IL due to elbow soreness, but the good news is that it doesn’t appear surgery will be required, as Cash said that the left-hander will continue to rehab without going under the knife.  Kittredge had a Tommy John surgery just over a year ago, but he will throw a live batting practice this week in the latest phase of his rehab.  Kittredge is expected to return to the Rays sometime in August, while Fleming’s 60-day IL placement means that August 3 would be the earliest date for a possible return.

Latest On Aaron Judge

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Aaron Judge hasn’t played since June 3, when the Yankees superstar made a highlight-reel catch that sent him crashing through Dodger Stadium’s right field bullpen door.  Judge sprained his right big toe while colliding with the concrete base under the bullpen door, and after two weeks on the sidelines, it remains unclear when Judge might return from the 10-day injured list.

After Judge received a PRP injection on June 6, the outfielder got another shot focused on a different ligament on Thursday, Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty and MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch).  “Any time you strain or tear the ligaments, it takes time to heal that, honestly.  PRPs hopefully speed that process up,” Boone said.  “Hopefully he’s continuing to move in the right direction.  We feel like he was, but that other part of the joint or of the toe…was still giving him problems after the first PRP.  To get in and hit the other parts of it, hopefully is something that speeds [the process].”

Range-of-motion exercises are the next step on Judge’s rehab plan, and further steps towards baseball activities remain fluid, as the Yankees are naturally being cautious.  Owner Hal Steinbrenner said earlier this week that Judge’s sprain was “like a turf toe,” and “a rare injury for a baseball player…I think it’s common in football probably with running backs.”

Kuty spoke with Dr. Spencer Stein of NYU Langone Health about Judge’s injury, and while Stein hasn’t personally examined the outfielder, the orthopedic surgeon said that a second PRP injection isn’t particular unusual for such an injury.  Stein suggested that Judge could be back by mid-July, though Boone provided a broader range of potential return dates.

First saying “there’s a shot” that Judge could return before the All-Star break, Boone added that “he could be back in a week.  He could be back in four.  I don’t know.  We’ve got to get to a point where we’re starting to move the ball from a physical activity or baseball standpoint.”

It’s no secret that Judge is the cornerstone of the Yankees roster, and the last two weeks have only underscored his importance to the lineup.  From June 4 to June 16, Yankee batters have hit a collective .205/.264/.361, with a 71 wRC+ that ranks as the third-worst in baseball during that span.

Some reinforcements may be on the way in the form of Harrison Bader, though Bader opted to extend his minor league rehab stint probably through the weekend.  As Boone told the New York Daily News’ Gary Phillips and other reporters, Bader wanted more than just one rehab game to ensure that his right hamstring strain was fully healed.  Bader was placed on the IL on May 29, and between this absence and a left oblique strain that cost him over the first month of the season, the outfielder has played in only 26 games this season (hitting .267/.295/.511 with six home runs in 95 plate appearances).

On the pitching side, Carlos Rodon is slated to begin his minor league rehab assignment on Tuesday.  Between a forearm strain and then a back problem, Rodon has yet to make his Yankee debut since joining the club on a six-year, $162MM free agent deal in December.  Early July is Rodon’s target date, as Boone said the plan is for Rodon to make three rehab outings with steadily increasing pitch counts.

Yankees Notes: Payroll, Volpe, Bader

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The Yankees sit in third place in the loaded AL East despite a 39-30 record. They’re unquestionably approaching deadline season looking to add to the roster. Erasing an 8 1/2 game deficit on the Rays to take the division is going to be a challenge, but New York currently occupies the second Wild Card spot.

How much payroll flexibility is at the front office’s disposal is an open question. New York had an active offseason highlighted by the record contract for Aaron Judge and the six-year deal to bring in Carlos Rodón. They appeared to hit their spending limit by Spring Training, however. Reports suggested they were loath to move their luxury tax number past $293MM, which marks the final tier of penalization. They entered the season with concerns about left field and the back of the rotation that have largely borne out in the first couple months.

Public estimates of the Yankees’ spending still put them right around that $293MM CBT mark. A club’s tax number is calculated at the end of the season, so their reported reluctance to surpass that figure could ostensibly limit their flexibility to add money before the trade deadline.

Hal Steinbrenner met with reporters (including Chris Kirschner of the Athletic) at this week’s owner meetings. The Yankee owner denied that the $293MM mark represented a firm cutoff, saying he’d consider moves he felt were difference-making acquisitions. Steinbrenner stopped short of promising a payroll uptick, though, saying “spending money for the sake of spending money, I just don’t know.”

Which players constitute notable upgrades will obviously be a point of conversation between ownership and the front office over the next six-plus weeks. While it’s still early for clubs to pinpoint specific trade targets, it’s easier to identify areas of need, particularly in the lineup. As measured by wRC+, the Yankees have been in the bottom third of MLB in offensive production at each of catcher, third base, shortstop and left field.

Not all of those will be upgraded upon midseason. Jose Trevino is a Gold Glove caliber catcher, so New York is probably content to live with fringy offense. Josh Donaldson has lost the bulk of the season to injury. He’s now healthy, and while he’s coming off a disappointing 2022 campaign, the Yankees will first see if he can reclaim third base before looking for alternatives.

Rookie Anthony Volpe has been the everyday shortstop, starting 63 of the first 69 games. The highly-touted prospect has struggled offensively through his first few months at the MLB level. Volpe is hitting just .192/.264/.359 while striking out over 30% of the time he’s stepped to the plate. He’s gotten mixed reviews on his glove. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as four runs better than the average shortstop in a little under 600 innings. Statcast has him two runs below par.

It’s not the kind of start for which the organization or its fanbase had hoped. Still, Yankees brass doesn’t seem concerned about the 22-year-old. Steinbrenner reiterated his faith in Volpe during yesterday’s media session, noting that he promised the former first-round draftee a long leash in Spring Training (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Skipper Aaron Boone also said yesterday the organization hasn’t given any thought to optioning Volpe to Triple-A (relayed by Talkin’ Yanks).

An outfield upgrade before August 1, on the other hand, seems quite likely. Left field has been a revolving door, with the struggling Oswaldo Cabrera and since-released Aaron Hicks getting the bulk of the reps early on. Lefty-swinging Jake Bauers has hit for enough power to hold down a corner outfield spot for the past month, but he’s a career .214/.308/.358 hitter.

Left field was a concern from day one, and the outfield has become particularly glaring with recent injuries to Judge and Harrison Bader. There’s still not much clarity on Judge, who has been down for ten days with a ligament sprain in his right big toe. Fortunately, Bader’s return from a hamstring strain appears imminent. He played in a rehab game with Double-A Somerset this evening and is expected back during the upcoming weekend series in Boston.

Yankees Place Harrison Bader On Injured List

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11:50pm: Bader is expected to miss at least “a few weeks,” Boone said after tonight’s win over the Mariners (relayed by Chris Kirschner of the Athletic).

8:20pm: The Yankees placed center fielder Harrison Bader on the 10-day injured list with a right hamstring strain before this evening’s game in Seattle. New York also optioned catcher Ben Rortvedt to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Fellow backstop Jose Trevino has been activated from his own IL stint, while Franchy Cordero was recalled to take Bader’s spot in the outfield.

Bader’s IL placement comes as little surprise. Manager Aaron Boone acknowledged it was a possibility this morning after Bader had left last night’s game. He underwent an MRI this morning. It’s not clear how significant the strain is or how long the Yankees expect him to be sidelined, but he’ll be out for at least a week and a half.

It’s the second time this year in which Bader has landed on the shelf. He missed the first month of the season with an oblique strain. Since returning, he’s been one of New York’s best players. Bader is hitting .267/.295/.511 with six homers and stolen bases apiece in 26 games. He’s paired that with characteristically excellent defense over his 205 1/3 innings of center field work. When healthy, Bader has shown the ability to be a very productive two-way outfielder. He’s unfortunately been no stranger to the IL, though, as he’s yet to surpass 427 MLB plate appearances in a season.

That combination of productivity but a checkered injury history will make Bader an interesting free agent case next winter. Alongside Cody Bellinger and the older Kevin Kiermaier, he’s slated to top the center field class. His market will obviously be determined in large part by how quickly he makes his return and his form down the stretch.

Aaron Judge got the bulk of the center field work last time Bader was on the shelf. Greg Allen, who wasn’t on the roster last month, is getting the nod there tonight. Judge is in right field with Isiah Kiner-Falefa manning left against Seattle righty Logan Gilbert.

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