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Heston Kjerstad

Dylan Cease Rumors: Dodgers, Busch, Orioles, Yankees

By Mark Polishuk | January 14, 2024 at 10:28am CDT

Considering the Dodgers’ need for pitching, it isn’t surprising that L.A. was linked to White Sox righty Dylan Cease in trade rumors on multiple occasions this winter.  There hasn’t been much in the way of new reporting on the Dodgers’ interest in Cease for over a month, however, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes that a trade may be less likely because the Dodgers have since fortified their rotation with other arms.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s twelve-year, $325MM contract was the big free agent strike, and Los Angeles swung a big trade with the Rays to land Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot.  Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Walker Buehler now project as the top three starters in the L.A. rotation, with Bobby Miller as the fourth, and a collection of candidates (Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Michael Grove) battling for the fifth starter job.  Dustin May is expected to make a midseason return from elbow surgery, and a reunion with Clayton Kershaw remains a possibility even if Kershaw will also be sidelined until around the middle of the year as he recovers from shoulder surgery.

There’s still some room here for the Dodgers to further solidify things beyond a potential new contract with Kershaw, so a Cease trade can’t be entirely ruled out, even if may be less likely.  It’s safe to assume that the Dodgers will continue to monitor the market for any bigger-name possibilities, yet Rosenthal writes that Los Angeles might now be “looking for future value” in any further trades, such as Thursday’s swap with the Cubs that saw the Dodgers acquire two teenage prospects in exchange for Michael Busch and Yency Almonte.

In one particularly novel scenario, Rosenthal reports that the Dodgers even considered acquiring Cease from the White Sox and then flipping him to a third team.  The specifics of this arrangement aren’t clear, yet it would’ve been a fascinating way for both the Dodgers and White Sox to obtain some high-level young talent for Cease, in a mix-and-match of prospects each team might’ve had their eye on in the Dodgers’ organization or within the pipeline of whoever the third club involved might’ve been.

Busch was also part of some of the Dodgers’ offers for Cease, Rosenthal writes, so the young infielder might’ve found himself on the south side of Chicago rather than landing in Wrigleyville.  Without knowing what the rest of this trade package to the White Sox might have included, it makes sense why the Sox might have not been too enthralled with Busch as a key piece.  While Busch has been crushing minor league pitching, his defense is considered a weak point — if first base ends up being his ultimate position, the White Sox already have Andrew Vaughn in place.

It isn’t any secret that the White Sox have put a very high price tag on Cease, so while Busch is a top-100 type of prospect, the Sox might’ve viewed him as a secondary or even tertiary piece in an acceptable trade package.  Several highly-regarded prospects have been reportedly on Chicago’s radar in trade talks, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds Yankees pitching prospect Chase Hampton and Orioles outfielders Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser to the list of young players drawing interest from the Southsiders.

Since the Yankees just signed Marcus Stroman this week, they could perhaps be out on Cease, since naturally New York isn’t keen on the idea of moving Hampton or slugger Spencer Jones, who is also reportedly of interest to the White Sox in a Cease trade.  Considering how the Yankees already dealt a lot of their younger pitching depth to the Padres to obtain Juan Soto, moving Hampton in particular might be something of a non-starter.

Kjerstad (the second overall pick of the 2020 draft) and Cowser (fifth overall in 2021) are two of the many up-and-comers in Baltimore’s loaded farm system, and both players made their Major League debuts this past season, though with only 110 combined plate appearances.  The duo might well be lined up as the Orioles’ corner outfielders of the future, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see pending free agent Anthony Santander dealt at some point this season if either Kjertsad or Cowser prove themselves capable of being MLB regulars right away.

Of course, it’s not out of the question that the O’s might deal from their deep minor league pipeline at some point this offseason, perhaps to obtain a front-of-the-rotation pitcher like Cease.  Baltimore might be more willing to come closer to Chicago’s asking price due to the sheer number of quality prospects the O’s have on hand, yet considering how many of those youngsters have barely reached the majors or even Triple-A, the Orioles might want more time to evaluate their options before deciding on who might be trade bait.

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Baltimore Orioles Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees Chase Hampton Colton Cowser Dylan Cease Heston Kjerstad Michael Busch

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Orioles Interested In Extensions For Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday

By Darragh McDonald | December 7, 2023 at 5:17pm CDT

Agent Scott Boras spoke to the media at the Winter Meetings yesterday and was asked if the Orioles had reached out about extension talks with his clients Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday. “Only once or twice a day,” Boras quipped, with Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner among those who passed his comments along. “Those kinds of things, obviously we listen, and Mike [Elias] and I talk a lot. Obviously, our job is to filter those phone calls and relay them to the player, and kind of discuss it and see if it’s something that the player himself is interested in.”

Boras and his clients have a reputation of generally being averse to extensions, though that’s not to say they never happen. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that Boras has negotiated extensions for clients such as Xander Bogaerts, Stephen Strasburg, Lance McCullers Jr. and more.

Both Henderson and Holliday are fairly inexperienced but extensions for players at this stage of their careers are becoming more common. Henderson has 184 games under his belt, but has thrived in those, winning American League Rookie of the Year here in 2023. Holliday has yet to make his major league debut but is the consensus top prospect in the sport.

In recent years, players like Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiménez have received notable extensions prior to even making it to the big leagues. Jackson Chourio, who currently falls just behind Holliday on those prospect lists, recently set a new benchmark for players with zero service time. He and the Brewers agreed to an eight-year, $82MM extension with performance bonuses and a pair of club options. There have also been notable deals given to players with a small amount of major league experience, with each of Corbin Carroll, Wander Franco and Julio Rodríguez getting nine-figure guarantees.

For the Orioles, they would have to change strategy to get a deal done with either player. Since Mike Elias was hired as general manager in November of 2018, the largest guarantee they have given to anyone is the one-year, $13MM deal they gave to Craig Kimbrel this week. The only extensions they have signed were two-year deals for John Means and Félix Bautista. In both cases, the player was rehabbing Tommy John surgery and was already under club control for the two seasons covered by the contract.

To be fair, the O’s have been aggressively rebuilding for much of the Elias tenure, so big spending wasn’t warranted. But they won 83 games in 2022 and still kept this modest last winter. The current offseason is still ramping up, so maybe there’s a bold move or two to come, but there’s been nothing too out-of-character just yet.

Due to that lack of spending, the club has the financial means to theoretically do anything it wants. The only commitments on the books for 2025 are $1MM owed to Bautista and another $1MM for the buyout on Kimbrel’s option. There’s nothing committed for 2026. Per the data of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the O’s had a payroll as high as $164MM in 2017, which put them in the top 10 league-wide. But much has changed since then.

Owner Peter Angelos collapsed in 2017 due to the failure of his aortic valve and his son John Angelos later was named “control person” for the club. Since then, the club has been rebuilding and keeping player costs to a minimum. Beyond that, they haven’t been able to agree to a new lease for their home ballpark, with the current agreement set to expire at the end of this month. It was reported earlier today that David Rubenstein is attempting to purchase the club, though it’s unclear if he has a chance of succeeding or how long that would take.

There’s plenty of long-term uncertainty around the franchise so it’s an open question as to how much latitude Elias even has to commit future dollars to either of these players or any of the other on the roster. The aggressive tanking of a few years ago helped them load up their farm system, which has led to their current club being filled with talented youngsters like Adley Rutschman, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg and more. Getting one or more of those players to put pen to paper and stay in Baltimore for a long time would be a sensible strategy, but the likelihood of such a deal actually happening isn’t obvious at the moment.

In the short term, Elias will have to think about putting the best possible team on the field for 2024 and recently spoke to Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball about that. They are set to have an outfield of Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays and Anthony Santander, though there are some different options for a fourth outfielder, with Elias naming Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, Kyle Stowers and Ryan McKenna as suitors for such a gig.

Kjerstad had a solid showing last year, tearing through Double-A and Triple-A before getting into 13 major league contests. The club probably wants to find him regular playing time somewhere, and he has played some first base before, but Elias shot down the notion of him moving there on a regular basis. “I don’t have designs on him becoming a full-time first baseman,” he said. “I think it’s something more that we’re trying to get it to a point where it’s in his back pocket and we can tap into it a couple of days a week.” The club has Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn as options for first base and designated hitter, so it’s not even a guarantee that there’s a cleaner path to playing time for Kjerstad there.

Despite all the crowding, the O’s have some openness to bringing in another outfielder, though it seems the odds of that happening are low. “I still see a ton of playing time and a lot of at-bats outside of our three primary outfielders,” Elias said. “Right now, this is up for grabs. These guys, I don’t think any of them have really proven it yet over a long period of time in the majors, so we’re cognizant of that. If we can find external insurance or external help in this department, it’s not going to close the doors for those guys, and it wouldn’t be unwelcome from our end, either. Competition is good. Depth is good. These seasons are so unpredictable. Odds are you’ll get some injuries, so we have to prepare for all that. We’ll talk to free agents that might be a fit for joining our outfield mix, but we have high hopes for the names that I mentioned.”

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Baltimore Orioles Gunnar Henderson Heston Kjerstad Jackson Holliday

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Orioles Select Heston Kjerstad

By Darragh McDonald | September 14, 2023 at 2:30pm CDT

The Orioles announced a series of roster moves today, selecting the contract of outfielder Heston Kjerstad and recalling right-hander Bryan Baker from Triple-A Norfolk. To open active roster spots for those two, outfielder Ryan McKenna and left-hander Nick Vespi were optioned to Norfolk. To open a spot for Kjerstad on the 40-man, infielder/outfielder Terrin Vavra was recalled from Norfolk and placed on the 60-day injured list with a strained right shoulder.

Of all the moves, the most significant is the promotion of Kjerstad, as it’s yet another instance of the O’s promoting a highly-touted prospect to their major league club. The past six years have seen the club endure a significant rebuild, finishing last in the American League East four times, losing 108 games or more in three of those. That’s allowed them to build a pipeline of young talent that has started to feed into for the big league team. Youngsters like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez and others have helped the club jump to a record of 91-54, the best such mark in the American League this year.

Kjerstad, 24, was taken with the second overall pick in 2020. His professional debut was delayed by myocarditis, which prevented him from taking part in any official game action in 2021. He split last year between Single-A and High-A, hitting a combined .309/.394/.457 between those two levels. This year, he’s gone through Double-A and Triple-A with a combined slash of .303/.376/.528, which translates to a wRC+ of 132.

The outfielder is currently considered the #44 prospect in the league by Baseball America, #24 by MLB Pipeline, #49 by ESPN and #56 by Keith Law of The Athletic. FanGraphs doesn’t currently provide specific rankings beyond the 50 Future Value guys on the 20-80 scouting scale, but Kjerstad is one of many unnumbered 45+ guys that are lumped together around the back half of the top 100. He’s considered a bat-first prospect, with his power his standout tool, but it’s expected he can be a fine corner outfielder from a defensive standpoint.

It was reported last night that a promotion of Kjerstad was possible, in conjunction with Ryan Mountcastle battling a shoulder injury. Mountcastle hasn’t landed on the injured list as of yet, but it seems Kjerstad will push into the mix regardless. Mountcastle has been the regular option at first base, but perhaps his injury means Ryan O’Hearn takes over that spot and spends less time in the outfield corners. That would perhaps leave Kjerstad, Anthony Santander, Aaron Hicks and Austin Hays splitting the duties of left field, right field and designated hitter. Kjerstad also played some first base in the minors and could be a factor there.

The O’s are about to begin what may be their most important series of the regular season. The Rays are just two games back in the East division and the two clubs are set to face off in a four-game series that starts tonight in Baltimore. Both teams are sure to make the postseason but the division winner will secure a bye through the first round, making the distinction significant. Kjerstad isn’t in the starting lineup tonight but should make his debut at some point in the next few weeks and might even secure himself a spot on the postseason roster.

With so little time left in the season, Kjerstad won’t be able to exhaust his rookie status and will therefore still be on prospect lists in the upcoming offseason. That means he will still be eligible for the “prospect promotion incentives” that are present in the current collective bargaining agreement. That could allow the O’s to recoup a bonus draft pick in the future, depending on how Kjerstad fares in awards voting going forward.

As for Vavra, he was with the big league club earlier this year but has been on optional assignment since early June. While in the minors, he missed over two months from mid-June to late August, when he began a rehab assignment. The club informed reporters last week, including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, that Vavra’s rehab was being shut down for further testing. There’s not much detail on his injury or timeline but it seems his season is over, based on today’s transfer.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Baltimore Orioles Newsstand Top Prospect Promotions Transactions Bryan Baker Heston Kjerstad Nick Vespi Ryan McKenna Terrin Vavra

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Ryan Mountcastle Being Evaluated For Shoulder Issue, Heston Kjerstad Promotion Possible

By Anthony Franco | September 13, 2023 at 9:48pm CDT

Ryan Mountcastle departed this evening’s loss to the Cardinals. He was injured during his first inning at-bat and removed from the game when his turn in the order came around two innings later. The O’s announced that he’d experienced left shoulder discomfort.

While Mountcastle is day-to-day at the moment, the O’s could turn to a top prospect to replace him. Danielle Allentuck and Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner report that Heston Kjerstad is en route to Baltimore. It isn’t yet clear if a promotion is contingent on a potential Mountcastle IL stint.

Speaking with the team’s beat postgame, Baltimore’s first baseman expressed concern about the injury. Mountcastle said he felt his shoulder pop on a swing (via Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun and Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball). After leaving the game, he tested the injury by attempting to swing in the batting cage but continued to feel soreness. He’ll go for more imaging tomorrow.

The team will surely provide more information when it becomes available, but it’s a suboptimal time for the O’s to potentially lose one of their hottest hitters. Tonight’s loss cut their lead in the AL East to two games over Tampa Bay. The Rays are headed to Baltimore for a four-game set that could have significant ramifications for the division. It’s quite arguably the biggest regular season series of the year for both clubs, since the eventual division champion will get a first-round bye and very likely have home field advantage in the postseason until the World Series.

Mountcastle has been one of the better hitters in the majors over the past two months. He’d opened the year with one of the worst offensive stretches of his career, hitting .227/.262/.421 over his first 60 contests. Baltimore placed him on the injured list with vertigo symptoms in mid-June, keeping him out of action for around a month. Since returning on July 9, Mountcastle has raked at a .327/.406/.497 clip over 197 plate appearances.

The silver lining is that Baltimore has a number of high-upside offensive players who could take on larger roles if necessary. Ryan O’Hearn has taken a significant step forward after struggling with the Royals. He’s hitting .301/.332/.500 while dividing his time between first base, the corner outfield and designated hitter. O’Hearn is already in the lineup on most days but could take on a more regular role at first base.

That’d leave some rotational at-bats for the 24-year-old Kjerstad should the O’s decide to promote him. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this morning that the Arkansas product had put himself on the radar for a possible MLB debut but that the O’s were concerned they might not have enough at-bats to spread around. Mountcastle’s injury might open up that opportunity just a few hours later.

The O’s tabbed Kjerstad with the second overall pick in the 2020 draft. It was a bit of a surprise, as most public pre-draft rankings felt he would land in the back half of the top 10. Kjerstad unfortunately didn’t have an opportunity to reward the O’s faith for a while. He contracted myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) in 2020 and was sidelined for the entire subsequent season.

It wasn’t until June 2022 — nearly two full years after his draft date — that Kjerstad was able to make his professional debut. He understandably struggled somewhat in High-A late last summer, but he has flashed the potential impact offensive tools the organization had envisioned this year.

Kjerstad has split the season between the top two minor league levels, mashing at a .303/.376/.529 clip over 121 contests. He has connected on 21 homers, 29 doubles and eight triples while striking out at a lower than average 18.5% clip. Baseball America slots him 44th on their most recent Top 100 prospects update.

Baltimore’s 40-man roster is capacity. If they decide to select Kjerstad’s contract (presumably in tandem with a 10-day IL stint for Mountcastle), they’d need to make an additional 40-man move.

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Baltimore Orioles Newsstand Heston Kjerstad Ryan Mountcastle Ryan O'Hearn

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AL East Notes: Yankees, Kjerstad, Swanson

By Nick Deeds | August 26, 2023 at 7:04pm CDT

The Yankees are among the teams interested in star NPB pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as noted by Newsday’s Erik Boland. Boland added that the club’s director of pro scouting Matt Daley is currently in Japan and another top scout visited to watch Yamamoto pitch earlier in the year. Jon Heyman of the New York Post also notes the Yankees interest, listing them among ten teams that scouted Yamamoto’s most recent start. That list of teams includes the club’s crosstown rival Mets as well as their division rival Red Sox.

Yamamoto, who claimed the #3 spot on MLBTR’s newest edition of the 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings, sports a sensational 1.34 ERA in 127 innings of work with the Orix Buffaloes this year, his age-24 season. That level of excellence extends all the way back to 2021; in 514 2/3 innings of work the past three seasons, Yamamoto’s ERA is 1.50 while he’s struck out 27.2% of batters he’s faced, walking just 5.2%. That level of dominance even eclipses that of former Yankee Masahiro Tanaka, who made two All Star appearances and posted a 3.33 ERA in ten postseason starts for the club after signing a seven-year, $155MM deal with New York prior to the 2014 season.

It’s no wonder the Yankees would have interest in Yamamoto; while they’ve gotten another excellent season out of ace Gerrit Cole, the club’s other starters have largely disappointed. Lefties Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes, nominally the club’s #2 and #3 starters, have been limited to just 7 and 12 starts respectively this season thanks to injuries and struggled badly. A Yamamoto signing would certainly give the Yankees a quality arm to pair with Cole at the top of their rotation while simultaneously helping to alleviate pressure not only on Rodon and Cortes, but also on youngsters like Clarke Schmidt, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez entering 2024.

More from around the AL East…

  • Orioles outfield prospect Heston Kjerstad is on the club’s radar for a possible call-up option when rosters expand on September 1, as GM Mike Elias told reporters (including BaltimoreBaseball.com’s Rich Dubroff). The 2nd overall pick in the 2020 draft, Kjerstad didn’t make his MiLB debut until last June thanks to a myocarditis diagnosis but has done nothing but hit since then. In 473 trips to the plate this season between the Double-A and Triple-A levels, the 24-year-old outfielder has slashed a sensational .308/.378/.542 with a strikeout rate just below 18%. If called up for the stretch run, Kjerstad would join an outfield that typically sports Austin Hays in left, Cedric Mullins in center, and Anthony Santander in right.
  • Blue Jays reliever Erik Swanson exited today’s game against the Guardians with right mid-back discomfort, as noted by The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath. The severity of Swanson’s injury isn’t yet known, but even a short absence for the right-hander, who sports a 3.10 ERA and a 29.4% strikeout rate in 58 innings of work this season, would be a substantial blow to Toronto’s bullpen. Of course, the club would still have right-handers Jordan Romano (2.60 ERA, 29.9% strikeout rate) and Jordan Hicks (3.83 ERA, 30.3% strikeout rate) available for the late innings even if Swanson required a trip to the injured list.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox New York Mets New York Yankees Notes Toronto Blue Jays Erik Swanson Heston Kjerstad Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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MLB Announces Futures Game Rosters

By Anthony Franco | June 26, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

Major League Baseball announced rosters for the 2023 Futures Game this evening. The contest — a seven-inning exhibition between some of the sport’s most talented minor leaguers — kicks off All-Star festivities in Seattle on Saturday, July 8.

As Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com notes, 28 of the 50 players on the roster are included on MLB Pipeline’s recent Top 100 prospects list. Six of Pipeline’s top ten will participate. The full rosters (MLB Pipeline prospect rank included, if applicable):

American League

  • Clayton Beeter, Yankees RHP (AAA)
  • Lawrence Butler, A’s OF (AA)
  • Junior Caminero, Rays INF (AA), #17 prospect
  • Jonathan Cannon, White Sox RHP (High-A)
  • Joey Cantillo, Guardians LHP (AAA)
  • Jonatan Clase, Mariners OF (AA)
  • Shane Drohan, Red Sox LHP (AAA)
  • David Festa, Twins RHP (AA)
  • Harry Ford, Mariners C (High-A), #29 prospect
  • Drew Gilbert, Astros OF (AA), #76 prospect
  • Jackson Holliday, Orioles INF (High-A), #1 prospect
  • Spencer Jones, Yankees OF (High-A)
  • Colt Keith, Tigers INF (AA), #43 prospect
  • Heston Kjerstad, Orioles OF (AAA), #40 prospect
  • Will Klein, Royals RHP (AAA)
  • Justyn-Henry Malloy, Tigers INF (AAA)
  • Kyle Manzardo, Rays INF (AAA), #42 prospect
  • Marcelo Mayer, Red Sox INF (AA), #5 prospect
  • Kyren Paris, Angels INF (AA)
  • Edgar Quero, Angels C (AA), #72 prospect
  • Sem Robberse, Blue Jays RHP (AA)
  • Tyler Soderstrom, A’s C (AAA), #37 prospect
  • Owen White, Rangers RHP (AAA), #48 prospect
  • Nick Yorke, Red Sox INF (AA), #91 prospect
  • Yosver Zulueta, Blue Jays RHP (AAA)

National League

  • Mick Abel, Phillies RHP (AA), #46 prospect
  • Ryan Bliss, Diamondbacks INF (AA)
  • Jackson Chourio, Brewers OF (AA), #3 prospect
  • Justin Crawford, Phillies OF (Low-A), #90 prospect
  • Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs OF (AA), #10 prospect
  • Yanquiel Fernandez, Rockies OF (AA), #97 prospect
  • Kyle Harrison, Giants LHP (AAA), #14 prospect
  • Tink Hence, Cardinals RHP (High-A), #66 prospect
  • Brady House, Nationals INF (High-A), #75 prospect
  • Jordan Lawlar, Diamondbacks INF (AA), #7 prospect
  • Noelvi Marte, Reds INF (AA), #19 prospect
  • J.P. Massey, Pirates RHP (High-A)
  • Jackson Merrill, Padres INF (High-A), #12 prospect
  • Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers RHP (High-A), #93 prospect
  • Patrick Monteverde, Marlins LHP (AA)
  • B.J. Murray, Cubs INF (AA)
  • Nasim Nunez, Marlins INF (AA)
  • Jeferson Quero, Brewers C (AA), #79 prospect
  • Endy Rodriguez, Pirates INF/C (AAA), #39 prospect
  • Dalton Rushing, Dodgers C (High-A), #51 prospect
  • Victor Scott II, Cardinals OF (High-A)
  • Spencer Shwellenbach, Braves RHP (Low-A)
  • Mike Vasil, Mets RHP (AAA)
  • Carson Whisenhunt, Giants LHP (AA)
  • James Wood, Nationals OF (AA), #6 prospect
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2023 All-Star Game B.J. Murray Carson Whisenhunt Clayton Beeter Colt Keith Dalton Rushing David Festa Drew Gilbert Edgar Quero Endy Rodriguez Harry Ford Heston Kjerstad J.P. Massey Jackson Chourio Jacob Misiorowski James Wood Jeferson Quero Joey Cantillo Jonatan Clase Jonathan Cannon Jordan Lawlar Junior Caminero Justin Crawford Justyn-Henry Malloy Kyle Harrison Kyle Manzardo Kyren Paris Lawrence Butler Marcelo Mayer Mick Abel Mike Vasil Nasim Nunez Nick Yorke Noelvi Marte Owen White Pete Crow-Armstrong Ryan Bliss Sem Robberse Shane Drohan Spencer Jones Spencer Schwellenbach Tink Hence Tyler Soderstrom Victor Scott Will Klein Yanquiel Fernandez Yosver Zulueta

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Big Hype Prospects: Sheehan, Perez Jr., Kjerstad, Walker, Mervis

By Brad Johnson | November 11, 2022 at 5:02pm CDT

Our Arizona Fall League prospect coverage is coming to a close. The league wraps up its postseason this weekend. We’ll use this opportunity for one last peek at game action before affiliated baseball closes down for the year.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Emmet Sheehan, 22, SP, LAD (AA)
AFL: 20.1 IP, 8 BB, 24 K, 3.54 ERA

Arguably the top pitching prospect in the AFL, Sheehan had a shaky start to his fall season. He ended with a masterpiece: a five-inning, 10-strikeout gem. He allowed one hit and one walk in the outing. A right-handed changeup specialist, command is the main bugaboo when it comes to Sheehan’s development. His repertoire plays together in a way that should flummox hitters at all levels. As a Dodger, there is increased pressure to refine his command if he wants to stick in the rotation. Most clubs would comfortably view him as a future starter – one who might fumble a few games in the early innings but make up for it by dominating in others. The Dodgers could yet opt to turn him into a swing-man or reliever as they have with several able pitching prospects in recent years.

Robert Perez Jr., 22, 1B, SEA (A+)
AFL: 77 PA, 3 HR, .231/.338/.415

A slow-burn prospect whose calling card is power, Perez neither seized nor fumbled his opportunity in the AFL. The Rule 5-eligible first baseman has impressive power which he put on display by winning the first Fall Stars Home Run Derby. He performed well during the regular season – mostly at Low-A where he was a tad old for the level. His potent regular season and passable AFL campaign should lead to a promotion to Double-A early in the season. Whether or not the Mariners opt to add him to their 40-man, the right-handed slugger probably isn’t ready for a straight jump to the Majors via the Rule 5 Draft. Even in the AFL, he struck out 22 times in 77 plate appearances (28 percent).

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (A+)
AFL: 104 PA, 5 HR, .357/.385/.622

Few players had more to prove this fall than Kjerstad. Now that the smoke has cleared, he answered some questions and raised others. The left-handed hitting outfielder led the league in plate appearances and at bats. He recorded five walks and 31 strikeouts. Given the modest quality of pitching in the AFL, it’s fair to wonder about his combination of aggression and swing-and-miss tendencies. This is a long-standing issue dating back to pre-draft reports. He worked on it during the regular season – possibly to the detriment of his power. On-site observers raved about the quality of Kjerstad’s contact… whenever he connected. Between premium exit velocities, plenty of fly balls, and all those at bats, it’s no surprise he led the league in extra-base hits.
Such prospects succeed when they’re adept at making adjustments. Kjerstad should get his first taste of the upper minors at some point next season.

Jordan Walker, 20, OF/3B, STL (AA)
AFL: 90 PA, 5 HR, 3 SB, .286/.367/.558

While others had flashier showings, Walker was the talk of the AFL. He handled himself with poise while flashing a superstar ceiling – both by the traditional eye-test and via Statcast measurables. He likely could hold his own in the Majors as soon as next season. The Cardinals have been working on shifting him to the outfield in deference to Nolan Arenado. The main element lacking in Walker’s development is the easiest to supply – experience. He needs more opportunities to face and adjust to star-caliber pitching. Along the way, he’ll likely develop into a regular All-Star candidate.

Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
AFL: 68 PA, 6 HR, 2 SB, .262/.324/.590

Of AFL participants (excluding Joey Wentz), Mervis probably has the best chance to open 2023 in the Majors. Including the regular season, he hit 42 home runs in 646 plate appearances this year. Remarkably, especially for the AFL home run leader, he fanned just eight times (11.8% K%) this fall. He also improved his strikeout rate continuously throughout the regular season. He began in High-A, where he recorded a 24.1 percent strikeout rate. That dropped to just 20.0 percent in Double-A and 14.6 percent in Triple-A. The low rate at his final stop coincided with an 8.7 percent swinging strike rate – far better than the league average. If Mervis can continue to avoid strikeouts while tapping into his power, he’ll have a bright future as a mid-lineup left-handed slugger.

Five More

Edouard Julien (23): Julien has been covered ad nauseum in this column. No prospect did more to further their claim to a future Major League role this fall. He’ll almost certainly be protected from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft. Julien’s combination of discipline, contact, sneaky pop, and sneakier baserunning are the traits of a regular. He still needs to settle into a position defensively – an issue that has arisen a few times in the Twins recent past (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda, Nick Gordon).

Evan Reifert, TBR (23): Reifert allowed a hit in his final inning of work, closing out the season with 11.2 innings, 40 batters faced, one hit allowed, four walks, and 25 strikeouts. Despite a relatively low inning total, he had the second-most strikeouts. The showing will help put him in consideration for a Major League role next season. The Rays have a crammed 40-man roster, and Reifert isn’t Rule 5-eligible until next offseason.

Tyler Hardman, NYY (23): A developing slugger with potent pop, Hardman is coming off Player of the Week honors. Overall, he posted a .325/.373/.662 line in 83 plate appearances. Of qualified hitters, he had the fourth-best OPS. Contact and inconsistent defense at the hot corner hold him back from appearing on prospect lists.

Nick Gonzales, PIT (23): Gonzales dropped from the spotlight due to injury and flawed performance. His AFL stint allowed him to build on a solid first showing in Double-A. In both settings, he succeeded without truly impressing. Whiffs remain an issue for a second baseman who is heavily dependent on his offensive output.

Francisco Morales, PHI (23): Morales is an interesting AFL participant because the Phillies have already burned two of his option years. They’re likely assessing if he should remain on the roster at all. He was one of four pitchers to throw 10 or more AFL innings without allowing an earned run. He recorded 17 strikeouts with only four hits allowed in 10.2 innings. He also issued seven free passes. Those walk issues have haunted him on a regular basis.

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Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals Emmet Sheehan Heston Kjerstad Jordan Walker Matt Mervis Robert Perez

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Big Hype Prospects: Rojas, Walker, Pages, Lavigne, Kjerstad

By Brad Johnson | October 21, 2022 at 7:50pm CDT

Big Hype Prospects remains focused on the Arizona Fall League. Let’s dig in.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Johan Rojas, 22, OF, PHI (AA)
AFL: 44 PA, 10 SB, .297/.386/.378

Rojas is one of the prospects I’m most closely tracking this fall. He’s Rule 5 eligible this winter, though there’s little chance the Phillies would risk exposing him to the draft. With his elite defense and double-plus speed, at least 20 teams could easily hide him on their roster for a full season. His development could affect how the Phillies approach the free agent and trade markets in the coming winters as they transition away from their long-standing reputation as a poor fielding franchise.

The early results in Arizona are a mixed bag. He does have a solid triple-slash and three doubles, though he’s yet to muscle up for a home run. Only Zac Veen (13) has more stolen bases. Rojas and Veen are also the only players to feature a three-steal game. Rojas did it by nabbing each bag once. You can find a video of his thefts of third and home via Jacob Resnick of MLB.com (scroll down). It sure looked to me (Twitter link) that the pitcher was a tad insulted by the steal of home.

Encouragingly, Rojas has five walks (11.4% BB%) and six strikeouts (13.6% K%) in his 44 plate appearances. The two areas of his game that need the most work are in-game power and plate discipline.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
AFL: 47 PA, 2 HR, 1 SB, .300/.362/.525

Although nobody should be upset with the above stat line, Walker ranks just 25th out of 62 qualified hitters by OPS. Nevertheless, he’s putting on an impressive display on both sides of the ball that has only served to highlight his physical readiness. Like Rojas, Walker’s development has major implications for the Cardinals mid-range plans. It’s long been rumored that Nolan Arenado will not opt out of his contract. Walker, however, is a talented defender who has been measured brushing triple-digit velocities on throws across the diamond. He also features Major League caliber exit velocities – he regularly exceeds 100-mph with his batted balls. All this from a 20-year-old who has all the makings of a franchise cornerstone. If Arenado does remain in St. Louis, they’ll have tough decisions to make soon – perhaps as early as next spring.

Andy Pages, 21, OF, LAD (AA)
AFL: 43 PA, 3 HR, .278/.372/.556

A consistent power-hitting prospect, Pages is coming off a solid showing at Double-A. Barring a change in approach, he’s destined to be a low-average, high-ISO slugger. As a hitter, comparisons to vintage Rhys Hoskins are almost unavoidable (Hoskins adjusted his batted ball profile this season). Pages puts more than half of his batted balls in the air, has plus discipline, and features more than enough raw power to casually blast more than 30 home runs per full season. My home run calculator projects a range of 28 home runs (at a 15% HR/FB ratio) to 47 home runs (25% HR/FB ratio) per 600 plate appearances. Presently, he plays center field, though there are questions about his ability to stick there. Some scouts believe he’ll slow considerably as he ages.

Grant Lavigne, 23, 1B, COL (AA)
AFL: 42 PA, 1 SB, .389/.476/.611

Once considered an interesting prospect with upside, Lavigne has fallen off lists in recent years amidst unimpressive results. This season, he posted a 146 wRC+ as a slightly old High-A player before turning in a 102 wRC+ in Double-A. He’s a first-base-only prospect so his lack of power – 10 home runs in 524 plate appearances – could be a fatal blow to his prospectdom. However, he has excellent plate discipline and a batted-ball approach that could outperform expectations at Coors Field. When I squint, I see him as sort of similar to a more patient and whiff-prone version of Eric Hosmer. Although he’s yet to homer this fall, Lavigne leads the league with six doubles. Lavigne is Rule 5 eligible this winter and might be left exposed.

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (AA)
AFL: 57 PA, 4 HR, .352/.386/.648

Kjerstad leads the league with 19 hits and is tied with Matt Mervis for the home run lead. He also has four doubles. The other hit leaders have taken a slappier approach, featuring minimal extra-base contact. As we profiled last week, Kjerstad lost most of two seasons due to COVID shutdowns and heart inflammation.

In less positive news, his 16 strikeouts are second-worst in the AFL, behind only Rece Hinds. Whiffs figure to remain an unavoidable part of Kjerstad’s game. So long as he’s achieving game power – as he is this fall – he remains a promising but volatile prospect.

Five More

Lawrence Butler, OAK (22): A slow-burn prospect who has hit at every level up through High-A, Butler has the fourth-best OPS in the AFL. A patient slugger who has always struggled with strikeouts, he tallied 10 walks and only seven strikeouts through 42 plate appearances. As a left-handed hitter, he has an easier path to relevance than other players with a similar toolset like Peyton Burdick. Butler should spend 2023 in Double-A. He’s being evaluated for a 40-man roster spot since he’s Rule 5 eligible.

Yasel Antuna, WSH (22): Antuna will turn 23 next Wednesday. A former top international prospect, his development has been slower and less impressive than originally hoped. His plate discipline is his standout trait, and it’s been on full display in Arizona where he has seven walks and one strikeout in 23 plate appearances. There are rumors his discipline is actually passivity. A dose of targeted aggression could unlock better power outcomes.

T.J. Rumfield, NYY (22): Acquired from the Phillies in exchange for Nick Nelson, Rumfield is an intriguing first base prospect who missed considerable development time – both in college and post-draft. When he’s been on the field, he’s demonstrated superb plate discipline. He puts on power displays in batting practice, though this has yet to translate in-game. He currently leads the AFL with a 1.236 OPS in 38 plate appearances.

Austin Martin, MIN (23): Martin is next-best with a 1.168 OPS in 48 plate appearances. It’s a BABIP-driven batting line – only three of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases. An important component of the Jose Berrios trade, Martin has intriguing discipline and contact skills. In his present form, he profiles as a most-days super utility guy. There’s risk higher-level pitchers will overpower him.

Edouard Julien, MIN (23): Another future Twins utility guy, Julien features pristine plate discipline that can verge into passivity at times. His pickiness results in an elevated strikeout rate despite above-average contact skills. He’s also never posted below a 19.3 percent walk rate. For comparison, among qualified Major Leaguers, only Juan Soto (20.3% BB%) exceeded a 16 percent walk rate this season. Julien isn’t on par with Soto, but he does have a well-rounded skill set and… surprise, surprise, he leads the AFL with 13 walks (30.9% BB%) and 10 strikeouts (23.8% K%) in 42 plate appearances.

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Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals Andy Pages Grant Lavigne Heston Kjerstad Johan Rojas Jordan Walker

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Big Hype Prospects: Veen, Sheehan, Kjerstad, Mervis, McLain

By Brad Johnson | October 14, 2022 at 1:10pm CDT

Big Hype Prospects continues with a look at the early results from the Arizona Fall League. This is, historically, a hitter-centric league so it will come as no surprise that the best early performers are mostly position players.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Zac Veen, 20, OF, COL (AA)
AFL: 31 PA, 1 HR, 7 SB, .455/.581/.636

Veen has posted video-game numbers, especially on the basepaths. During the regular season, he stole 55 bases in 64 attempts (541 plate appearances). He’s upped the ante in Arizona, swiping a league-leading seven bags in eight attempts. Veen’s biggest statistical weakness is an elevated swinging strike rate. To close out the season, he posted a 15 percent swinging strike rate at Double-A while batting .177/.262/.234 in 141 plate appearances. His early rebound at the fall league is an encouraging sign.

Emmet Sheehan, 22, SP, LAD (AA)
AFL: 6 IP, 5 K, 2 H, 2 BB, 2 HBP, 0.00 ERA

One of only a few pitchers with serious clout in the AFL, Sheehan has held opponents scoreless through two appearances. He’s presently on the cusp of Top 100 prospect status for many evaluators. The Dodgers consistent ability to get the most out of their pitching prospects certainly contributes an added hint of optimism.

Command is the limiting factor for his development, and it happens to be the only thing he’s struggled with thus far in Arizona. Sheehan’s repertoire is a tad unusual. While a fastball-curve-changeup trio sounds vanilla, he’s a right-hander whose best pitch is a changeup. His fastball and curve tunnel well and can have upwards of 20-mph of separation. Scouting reports tend to downplay his curve when viewed on its own, but the pitch seems to play up within his repertoire.

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (A+)
AFL: 40 PA, 3 HR, .368/.400/.711

The second-overall pick of the weird 2020 draft, Kjerstad missed all of 2021 due to heart inflammation. He finally made his minor league debut this season. He steamrolled Low-A pitchers in 98 plate appearances then struggled versus High-A opponents. Since he’s missed so much time, his performance in the AFL will have more influence on how evaluators view him than most other participants. Presently, he’s tied for the league lead with three home runs. Notably, he’s also struck out 10 times which is right on par with his strikeout rate in High-A.

Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
AFL: 21 PA, 3 HR, .263/.333/.842

The co-leader in home runs is Mervis. He’s accomplished the feat in 19 fewer plate appearances than Kjerstad. Mervis spent the regular season climbing from High- to Triple-A. Along the way, he hit 36 home runs in 578 plate appearances. His plate discipline and contact rates improved at every level, culminating in a 10.4 percent walk rate, 14.6 percent strikeout rate, and 8.7 percent swinging strike rate in Triple-A. He’s a classic pulled contact, fly ball masher built for the height of the juiced ball era. He should arrive in Chicago early next season. He’ll enjoy Wrigley Field when the winds are blowing out.

Matt McLain, 23, SS, CIN (AA)
AFL: 30 PA, 2 SB, .200/.467/.250

A talented middle infielder now overshadowed by Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte, McLain could make a case for a quick promotion to the Majors with a strong showing this fall. To date, he’s shown epic patience, working a league-leading 10 walks in just 30 plate appearances. He’ll need to show a stronger knack for making quality contact, whether in play or over the fence. His 2022 campaign at Double-A was characterized by plenty of discipline (15.5 percent walk rate), decent power (.221 ISO), and a poor .232 batting average. While batting average isn’t tightly related to production, most quality prospects tend to post high averages in the minors.

Five More

Joey Wentz, DET (24): It’s uncommon but not entirely unheard of for players with Major League experience to play in the AFL. Wentz pitched 32.2 effective innings with the Tigers, including a 3.03 ERA (4.56 xFIP). He missed the early portion of the season, so he’ll make a few extra starts to further build his workload. A former 40th-overall pick, Wentz threw four perfect innings in his first AFL appearance.

Luisangel Acuna, TEX (20): Acuna lacks the same raw tools as his talented older brother, but his development has progressed encouragingly nonetheless. He reached Double-A as a 20-year-old. He has picked up where he left off in the AFL, batting .300/.323/.633 with a pair of home runs in 31 plate appearances. Don’t worry about the low walk rate, his discipline might be his carrying trait.

Nick Yorke, BOS (20): After a poor regular season campaign, Yorke is looking to put his name back on the map with a hot finish. Thus far, he’s hitting .300/.410/.400 in 39 plate appearances. He’s yet to homer or steal a base. He has, however, worked six walks compared to six strikeouts. In High-A, his strikeout rate was three times higher than his walk rate.

Zack Gelof, OAK (22): Gelof is well-regarded by Athletics personnel, though his on-field results weren’t ideal. He finished the year on a power-binge in Triple-A, blasting five home runs in 38 plate appearances. He blasted two home runs on Thursday, his first of the AFL season. Overall, he’s batting .259/.355/.481.

Jordan Lawlar, ARI (20): Although he sputtered statistically to end the season in Double-A, scouting reports continually put Lawlar in the discussion for the number one prospect. In 32 plate appearances, he’s hitting .333/.500/.667 with two home runs and three steals in four attempts. 2023 is his age 20 season, and there’s an outside chance he’ll debut. A hot AFL would help those odds.

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Big Hype Prospects MLBTR Originals Emmet Sheehan Heston Kjerstad Matt McLain Matt Mervis Zac Veen

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Quick Hits: Assistant GMs, Kjerstad, 2022 Draft

By Mark Polishuk | January 21, 2022 at 1:57pm CDT

There’s plenty of ambition to be found within baseball’s front offices, and yet for an increasing number of executives, remaining in a secondary role is a nice place to be, The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli and Eno Sarris write.  Whether in an assistant GM role or as a general manager working under a president of baseball operations, these “top lieutenant” positions tend to involve more job security, increased pay in recent years as teams try to prevent other clubs from poaching employees, and a lot less public pressure than being the head of a baseball ops department.  As one former GM put it, “there’s so much scrutiny on it that people are like, ’Screw it, I’m happy making a nice living and can be around my kids and go out to dinner without being recognized.’ ”

On the other hand, if there is relatively less movement amongst front office personnel, that can also lead to a stagnation of hiring practices.  This makes it harder for minority candidates to get opportunities for a notable front office position, let alone consideration for a PBO or GM job.  As White Sox executive VP Kenny Williams has observed, teams are increasingly hiring front office personnel lacking in baseball-related experience, and yet that same lack of experience is often cited as a reason why women or minority candidates aren’t given promotions to larger roles.

More from around the baseball world…

  • Heston Kjerstad might receive an invitation to the Orioles’ big league Spring Training camp, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.  It is a welcome bit of good news for Kjerstad, who is now fully recovered from the myocarditis that has thus far kept the second overall pick of the 2020 draft from beginning his professional career.  Kjerstad has gotten in some work at Orioles minicamps and in the fall instructional league, with the early returns against live pitching already impressing team coaches and evaluators.
  • Speaking of high draft picks, the top of the 2022 draft class figures to be heavy with position players, with MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis predicting that “at least eight hitters will go in the first 10 selections.”  This seems due to both a lack of standout college pitchers and an above-average group of hitters at both the collegiate and prep levels.  High schoolers Druw Jones (son of former Braves star Andruw Jones) and Termarr Johnson rate particularly well with Callis, who puts Jones and Johnson behind only Bobby Witt Jr. as the best position player prospects of the 2019-22 draft classes.
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2022 Amateur Draft Baltimore Orioles Druw Jones Heston Kjerstad Termarr Johnson

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