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Heston Kjerstad

Big Hype Prospects: Veen, Sheehan, Kjerstad, Mervis, McLain

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Big Hype Prospects continues with a look at the early results from the Arizona Fall League. This is, historically, a hitter-centric league so it will come as no surprise that the best early performers are mostly position players.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Zac Veen, 20, OF, COL (AA)
AFL: 31 PA, 1 HR, 7 SB, .455/.581/.636

Veen has posted video-game numbers, especially on the basepaths. During the regular season, he stole 55 bases in 64 attempts (541 plate appearances). He’s upped the ante in Arizona, swiping a league-leading seven bags in eight attempts. Veen’s biggest statistical weakness is an elevated swinging strike rate. To close out the season, he posted a 15 percent swinging strike rate at Double-A while batting .177/.262/.234 in 141 plate appearances. His early rebound at the fall league is an encouraging sign.

Emmet Sheehan, 22, SP, LAD (AA)
AFL: 6 IP, 5 K, 2 H, 2 BB, 2 HBP, 0.00 ERA

One of only a few pitchers with serious clout in the AFL, Sheehan has held opponents scoreless through two appearances. He’s presently on the cusp of Top 100 prospect status for many evaluators. The Dodgers consistent ability to get the most out of their pitching prospects certainly contributes an added hint of optimism.

Command is the limiting factor for his development, and it happens to be the only thing he’s struggled with thus far in Arizona. Sheehan’s repertoire is a tad unusual. While a fastball-curve-changeup trio sounds vanilla, he’s a right-hander whose best pitch is a changeup. His fastball and curve tunnel well and can have upwards of 20-mph of separation. Scouting reports tend to downplay his curve when viewed on its own, but the pitch seems to play up within his repertoire.

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (A+)
AFL: 40 PA, 3 HR, .368/.400/.711

The second-overall pick of the weird 2020 draft, Kjerstad missed all of 2021 due to heart inflammation. He finally made his minor league debut this season. He steamrolled Low-A pitchers in 98 plate appearances then struggled versus High-A opponents. Since he’s missed so much time, his performance in the AFL will have more influence on how evaluators view him than most other participants. Presently, he’s tied for the league lead with three home runs. Notably, he’s also struck out 10 times which is right on par with his strikeout rate in High-A.

Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
AFL: 21 PA, 3 HR, .263/.333/.842

The co-leader in home runs is Mervis. He’s accomplished the feat in 19 fewer plate appearances than Kjerstad. Mervis spent the regular season climbing from High- to Triple-A. Along the way, he hit 36 home runs in 578 plate appearances. His plate discipline and contact rates improved at every level, culminating in a 10.4 percent walk rate, 14.6 percent strikeout rate, and 8.7 percent swinging strike rate in Triple-A. He’s a classic pulled contact, fly ball masher built for the height of the juiced ball era. He should arrive in Chicago early next season. He’ll enjoy Wrigley Field when the winds are blowing out.

Matt McLain, 23, SS, CIN (AA)
AFL: 30 PA, 2 SB, .200/.467/.250

A talented middle infielder now overshadowed by Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte, McLain could make a case for a quick promotion to the Majors with a strong showing this fall. To date, he’s shown epic patience, working a league-leading 10 walks in just 30 plate appearances. He’ll need to show a stronger knack for making quality contact, whether in play or over the fence. His 2022 campaign at Double-A was characterized by plenty of discipline (15.5 percent walk rate), decent power (.221 ISO), and a poor .232 batting average. While batting average isn’t tightly related to production, most quality prospects tend to post high averages in the minors.

Five More

Joey Wentz, DET (24): It’s uncommon but not entirely unheard of for players with Major League experience to play in the AFL. Wentz pitched 32.2 effective innings with the Tigers, including a 3.03 ERA (4.56 xFIP). He missed the early portion of the season, so he’ll make a few extra starts to further build his workload. A former 40th-overall pick, Wentz threw four perfect innings in his first AFL appearance.

Luisangel Acuna, TEX (20): Acuna lacks the same raw tools as his talented older brother, but his development has progressed encouragingly nonetheless. He reached Double-A as a 20-year-old. He has picked up where he left off in the AFL, batting .300/.323/.633 with a pair of home runs in 31 plate appearances. Don’t worry about the low walk rate, his discipline might be his carrying trait.

Nick Yorke, BOS (20): After a poor regular season campaign, Yorke is looking to put his name back on the map with a hot finish. Thus far, he’s hitting .300/.410/.400 in 39 plate appearances. He’s yet to homer or steal a base. He has, however, worked six walks compared to six strikeouts. In High-A, his strikeout rate was three times higher than his walk rate.

Zack Gelof, OAK (22): Gelof is well-regarded by Athletics personnel, though his on-field results weren’t ideal. He finished the year on a power-binge in Triple-A, blasting five home runs in 38 plate appearances. He blasted two home runs on Thursday, his first of the AFL season. Overall, he’s batting .259/.355/.481.

Jordan Lawlar, ARI (20): Although he sputtered statistically to end the season in Double-A, scouting reports continually put Lawlar in the discussion for the number one prospect. In 32 plate appearances, he’s hitting .333/.500/.667 with two home runs and three steals in four attempts. 2023 is his age 20 season, and there’s an outside chance he’ll debut. A hot AFL would help those odds.

Quick Hits: Assistant GMs, Kjerstad, 2022 Draft

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There’s plenty of ambition to be found within baseball’s front offices, and yet for an increasing number of executives, remaining in a secondary role is a nice place to be, The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli and Eno Sarris write.  Whether in an assistant GM role or as a general manager working under a president of baseball operations, these “top lieutenant” positions tend to involve more job security, increased pay in recent years as teams try to prevent other clubs from poaching employees, and a lot less public pressure than being the head of a baseball ops department.  As one former GM put it, “there’s so much scrutiny on it that people are like, ’Screw it, I’m happy making a nice living and can be around my kids and go out to dinner without being recognized.’ ”

On the other hand, if there is relatively less movement amongst front office personnel, that can also lead to a stagnation of hiring practices.  This makes it harder for minority candidates to get opportunities for a notable front office position, let alone consideration for a PBO or GM job.  As White Sox executive VP Kenny Williams has observed, teams are increasingly hiring front office personnel lacking in baseball-related experience, and yet that same lack of experience is often cited as a reason why women or minority candidates aren’t given promotions to larger roles.

More from around the baseball world…

  • Heston Kjerstad might receive an invitation to the Orioles’ big league Spring Training camp, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.  It is a welcome bit of good news for Kjerstad, who is now fully recovered from the myocarditis that has thus far kept the second overall pick of the 2020 draft from beginning his professional career.  Kjerstad has gotten in some work at Orioles minicamps and in the fall instructional league, with the early returns against live pitching already impressing team coaches and evaluators.
  • Speaking of high draft picks, the top of the 2022 draft class figures to be heavy with position players, with MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis predicting that “at least eight hitters will go in the first 10 selections.”  This seems due to both a lack of standout college pitchers and an above-average group of hitters at both the collegiate and prep levels.  High schoolers Druw Jones (son of former Braves star Andruw Jones) and Termarr Johnson rate particularly well with Callis, who puts Jones and Johnson behind only Bobby Witt Jr. as the best position player prospects of the 2019-22 draft classes.

East Notes: Braves, Smyly, Sale, Orioles, Kjerstad

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The Braves are planning to activate Drew Smyly from the injured list to start Saturday’s game against the Diamondbacks, David O’Brien of the Athletic was among those to relay (Twitter link). The left-hander was placed on the IL last week with forearm inflammation, but he’ll return after missing just one start. Smyly has allowed nine runs (seven earned) over his first eleven innings for Atlanta, but he’s struck out eleven with just a single walk to this point.

Elsewhere in Atlanta and the game’s East divisions:

  • In other Braves’ pitching news (also via O’Brien), reliever Chris Martin has started throwing as he begins his ramp-up. The right-hander hit the injured list in early April with shoulder inflammation but O’Brien says he could return by the end of Atlanta’s upcoming homestand, which runs through the 29th. Max Fried, who went on the shelf last week after straining his hamstring, seems to be further behind. He has not yet begun throwing and there’s no timetable for his return, per O’Brien. Like Martin, Mike Soroka is dealing with shoulder inflammation; the 23-year-old is expected to begin a throwing program sometime soon, but manager Brian Snitker suggested he’s still far away from any potential return to game action (via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution).
  • Red Sox ace Chris Sale is progressing in his recovery from March 2020 Tommy John surgery, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com relays. Sale isn’t throwing off a mound yet, but manager Alex Cora said he’s “getting closer.” The left-hander will report to the team’s complex in Florida on Sunday to continue his rehab. Sale “feels great,” according to Cora, though the Red Sox still aren’t ready to offer a timetable on a potential 2021 return. Even without Sale, the Red Sox have surprisingly begun the season with an American League-best 12-6 record. Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodríguez have been the top performers in Boston’s rotation this year in Sale’s absence.
  • Orioles outfield prospect Heston Kjerstad has been medically cleared to report to the team’s alternate training site, per Jim Callis of MLB.com. Kjerstad, the No. 2 pick in last year’s draft, has been away from the club while recovering from myocarditis. The 22-year-old will need “a months-long buildup” before he’s ready for game action, Callis tweets.

Orioles Sign Heston Kjerstad

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The Orioles have signed second overall draft pick Heston Kjerstad, per a team announcement. The University of Arkansas product will receive a $5.2MM bonus, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter link).

Kjerstad was expected to go near the top of the draft, but not with the second selection. The O’s obviously liked him quite a bit, but also saw an opportunity to save some bonus pool capacity to draft and sign other talented players in later rounds. The club was able to reapply over $2.5MM of the second overall slot value.

As things stand, the Orioles are known to have deals in place with five of their six selections. Jordan Westburg (30th overall) and Hudson Haskin (39th) secured at-slot bonuses. High schoolers Coby Mayo and Carter Baumler were lured with over-slot promises, though their deals aren’t yet official. That leaves Ole Miss infielder Anthony Servideo, the team’s third-round choice, left without a pact (so far as is publicly known).

Perhaps it’s easy to get caught up in the machinations and overlook Kjerstad’s own promise. While teams obviously see the appeal in spreading draft bonus pool availability over multiple players, they also aren’t generally inclined to spend premium draft choices on sub-premium talent.

All major draft pundits graded Kjerstad as one of the dozen or so top-available talents. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs had the highest ranking, listing him in the seventh slot.

Most agree on the profile here. Kjerstad is seen as a solid right fielder with big potential at the plate. He was drubbing high-end college pitching (.448/.513/.791) when the 2020 season was suspended. There are some concerns over his complicated swing and proclivity to strike out, but obviously the consensus is that Kjerstad will grow into a quality offensive performer at the game’s highest level.

Orioles Notes: Minor League Pay, Kjerstad, Draft

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The latest from Camden Yards…

  • On Friday, the Orioles announced that they will continue paying the $400 weekly stipend to their minor league players through the first week of September (or what would have been the end of the minor league season).  All 30 teams have publicly committed to paying their minor leaguers through at least the end of June, with clubs such as the Twins, Royals, Padres, Mariners, Reds, Astros, Red Sox, Marlins, and — after some controversy — Athletics all joining Baltimore in keeping the stipend going for the entire season.
  • The Orioles went against conventional wisdom when they selected Heston Kjerstad with the second overall pick of the amateur draft, as Kjerstad was generally projected to fall somewhere in the 9th-12th pick range.  As Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun writes, the Arkansas outfielder on the team’s radar for a while — area scout Ken Guthrie has known Kjerstad’s family for years and Guthrie took note of Kjerstad’s hitting potential when he was still a high schooler.  The Orioles continued to observe Kjerstad as he developed into a star at Arkansas, with both analytics and pure numbers revealing his improvement at the plate.  “It’s a really special bat in our opinion.  He took some steps forward this year,” GM Mike Elias said.  “I think had he been able to finish that season, he probably would have just continued to cement it.  I think if we hadn’t taken him, he was going to go pretty quick after us.”
  • Of course, signability also played a role in Baltimore’s choice, as Kjerstad might be willing to agree to take less than the second pick’s recommended $7,789,900 slot price.  As per Meoli, the Orioles “explored similar such deals” with other top prospects such as Nick Gonzales (who went seventh overall to the Pirates) and Zac Veen (ninth overall to the Rockies).

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