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Rosenthal’s Latest: Red Sox, Frazier, Yankees, Gray, Cubs

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Here’s the latest from Ken Rosenthal, via a video on FOX Sports.

  • A Red Sox trade for White Sox third baseman Todd Frazier seems “almost inevitable,” according to Rosenthal. (Rosenthal’s choice of words is strikingly strong here.) The Red Sox need a short-term infusion of power at third, with top prospect Rafael Devers as their long-term answer at the position. Frazier, who is eligible for free agency next winter, fits the bill perfectly, in Rosenthal’s view. Frazier has batted a modest .210/.331/.438 in 326 plate appearances this season, but he has a solid history of hitting for power and has batted a robust .248/.377/.540 since June 4 after getting off to a slow start to the year.
  • The Yankees will be buyers at the deadline, but will be cautious, not wanting to sacrifice too much future value in exchange for immediate upgrades, says Rosenthal. One team that matches their needs well is the Athletics, who have help at first base (Yonder Alonso) and on the mound (Sonny Gray and a number of relievers).
  • Rosenthal characterizes Gray to the Cubs as unlikely — Gray would likely cost Ian Happ or another top young hitter, and Rosenthal guesses the Cubs would rather go forward with their current collection of rotation talent (which, of course, now includes Jose Quintana) and sign a free agent next winter. Rosenthal points out, though, that whatever the Cubs’ actual level of interest, both the Cubs and Athletics probably like the perception that the Cubs want Gray, since the extra name on the market increases pressure on the Brewers, who’ve also been connected to him.

Reactions To And Effects Of The Jose Quintana Trade

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After a nearly silent All-Star break on the rumor front, the Cubs and White Sox stunned the baseball world by announcing a blockbuster deal that sent left-hander Jose Quintana from Chicago’s American League club to its National League team in exchange for minor leaguers Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Matt Rose and Bryant Flete. Over the past 24 hours, both teams have addressed the media, pundits from around the media have weighed in on the swap, and others have reported details on alternative talks that each team had leading up to the blockbuster move. Here’s a before-and-after, if you will, of how what might be the summer’s biggest trade transpired…

  • The Yankees, Brewers and Astros were all involved in varying levels of trade talks regarding Quintana before the Cubs ultimately acquired him, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). The Braves, too, were in on Quintana “until the end,” USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. Meanwhile, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets that the Rockies were “never really in” on Quintana despite a potential need for some rotation upgrades with some of their younger arms sputtering lately.
  • The Cubs tried to engage the Tigers in trade talks on Michael Fulmer before acquiring Quintana, reports Nightengale in a full column. However, Detroit gave no indication that it was willing to listen unless the Cubs were willing to include both Javier Baez and Ian Happ in trade talks. They also inquired on Justin Verlander, per Morosi (also via Twitter), though he notes that, similarly, talks between the two sides “never gained momentum.”
  • While many were stunned to see the Sox and Cubs line up on a trade — their first since 2006 — White Sox GM Rick Hahn scoffed at the notion that their shared city would serve as an impediment to trade talks, writes Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. “This notion that we wouldn’t do business with them because they’re in town — or somehow we would actually take an inferior baseball deal for non-baseball reasons because of emotion or a rivalry or something totally unrelated to putting the best possible team on the field for the next several years — is laughable,” said Hahn. The South Side GM went on to laud Jimenez’s upside, calling him a potential middle-of-the-order bat with power potential and the ability to hit to all fields. Hahn adds that yesterday’s package was “far and away the best offer, the best possibility, that we’ve discussed with any club since we’ve started this process roughly a year or ago or so.”
  • The Cubs believed that they were out of the running to acquire Quintana after talking to Hahn in June, president of baseball operations told reporters (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times). Hahn, though, re-engaged with Epstein on Sunday night, and the two talked over the next few days, including a conversation that included Hahn ducking behind an exhibit at All-Star FanFest in Miami to avoid being seen (per ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers, on Twitter). Ultimately, it became clear that the Cubs would have to part with two of their very best prospects to get the deal done. “This deal had zero-percent chance of happening without both Eloy and Cease in it,” said Epstein. The Cubs president went on to say that they’ve been trying to acquire a pitcher like Quintana for “a long time” and added that his analytics and scouting teams “[dug] deep” to determine whether there were any changes that led to Quintana’s slow start t the season. “Our assessment on both fronts was that he is the same guy, and our staff felt that way with conviction,” Epstein said.
  • Also via Wittenmyer’s column, Epstein said that the team isn’t necessarily done yet, though their play in the next two weeks will dictate what other moves are or aren’t made. “We need to play well coming out of the gates here, and we’ll assess what we’re trying to do in large part based on how we play and where we are in the standings, and how realistic we think a World Series run is this year,” Epstein said. “Everything is still on the table for this year.”
  • ESPN’s Keith Law opines (Insider subscription required and recommended) that both clubs did well in the trade. The Cubs picked up a durable arm that has a near-ace-level track record over the past three years whose raw stuff “didn’t really waver” even through his struggles earlier this season. Quintana can help offset the loss of right-hander Jake Arrieta after the season, joining Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks in the rotation for the next several years. His contract is also affordable enough that the team can comfortably pursue rotation help on the free-agent market this winter. Law projects Jimenez as a middle-of-the-order bat and suggests that he alone could’ve been an acceptable return, though the inclusion of Cease sweetens the deal. Cease has questions about his command as well as his durability and may end up in the ’pen, though his velocity and pair of potentially above-average secondary offerings make him a nice upside play. Law notes that he’s been leapfrogged by a pair of pitching prospects on the Cubs’ organizational rankings, which might’ve made him easier to deal.
  • Both Nightengale and Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network opine that it’s ridiculous that this is just the second trade these two teams have made this decade and offer praise for Hahn and Epstein for their pragmatic approach to dealing with one another. Teams are making more rational and data-driven decisions than ever before, Rosenthal notes, ultimately surmising that that trend should also include a willingness to deal within the same city and within the same division.
  • Yahoo’s Jeff Passan writes that Quintana’s contract was every bit as important to the Cubs as Quintana himself. With significant arbitration raises looming for players like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Hendricks, Javier Baez, Carl Edwards Jr. and others looming in the next two years, the team’s enviable young core is going to rapidly become considerably more expensive. Shedding money from aging veterans like Arrieta, John Lackey and Ben Zobrist will obviously free up some cash, but Quintana’s contract meets an important nexus of future payroll flexibility, remaining under the luxury tax and improving the near- and long-term roster.

Rosenthal’s Latest: McCutchen, Cole, Hand, Cubs

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In his latest notes column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes that while there’s a pretty good chance of an Andrew McCutchen trade this summer, the Pirates aren’t by any means planning a full tear-down of the roster. As such, Rosenthal notes that right-hander Gerrit Cole isn’t likely to be traded, considering he’s controllable for two more years beyond the current campaign. Trading McCutchen, whose bat has come to life over the past few weeks, wouldn’t be done as a means of waving a white flag on the 2017 campaign. Rather, the team could look to replace him in the lineup with a more affordable and/or controllable trade acquisition, as the Bucs did last year when replacing Melancon and Francisco Liriano with Felipe Rivero and Ivan Nova. McCutchen has a club option for the 2018 season that is valued at $14.5MM, and he’ll be a free agent thereafter.

A couple more highlights…

  • The Padres are seeking a “Will Smith” type of return for lefty setup man Brad Hand, one rival executive tell Rosenthal. The Brewers traded Smith to the Giants last season in exchange for right-hander Phil Bickford, who at the time was 14 months removed from being a first-round pick, and catcher Andrew Susac — a former top prospect with MLB experience already under his belt. The Padres, of course, needn’t look to mirror that exact structure, but it seems fair to believe that GM A.J. Preller and his staff are hopeful of acquiring one near-MLB-ready asset and another highly touted young prospect in any deal for Hand, who is controllable through 2019. A pair of recent rough outings have made Hand’s numbers look a bit more mortal, but he’s still sporting a strong 2.84 ERA with 11.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 50 percent ground-ball rate through 38 innings.
  • Rosenthal also writes that fans shouldn’t expect to see the Cubs trade any of their young MLB-level hitters this summer. He suggests that Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras, Albert Almora and even the less-experienced Ian Happ are all unlikely to be moved, though Chicago certainly has a number of upper-level prospects that would entice rival teams to part with talent that could help turn around the season for the reigning World Series champions. Rosenthal also spoke with right-hander Jake Arrieta at length in an interesting interview about his struggles this season. While the former Cy Young winner conceded that his workload in 2015-16 may be having more of an effect on him than he’d like to admit. As Rosenthal notes, virtually every member of the Cubs’ rotation that pitched into the World Series has had some level of struggle this season, and the same is largely true of the Indians.

NL Central Notes: Peralta, Heyward, Happ, Reds, Cole

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Jhonny Peralta is back with the Cardinals after being activated from the disabled list, though Peralta told reporters (including Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that he’ll have to adjust to being a part-time player for the first time in his career.  “Everybody is doing good and the team — we’re in second place,” Peralta said.  “I understand the situation but it’s kind of hard for me to be on the bench and not play every day, because I know what kind of player I can be….I need to learn to be ready for whatever time or situation it is in the game.”  Peralta was a productive starter for the Cards as recently as the 2015 season, though an injury-plagued 2016 opened the door for Aledmys Diaz and Jedd Gyorko to emerge, and those two have now established themselves as the Cardinals’ regulars at shortstop and third base.  Peralta, who turns 35 later this month, is in the final year of a four-year, $53MM contract and is owed roughly $7.4MM for the remainder of the season.  A trade could be difficult to work given this remaining salary and Peralta’s lack of recent production, though if Peralta is able to get somewhat back into form, he’ll give the Cards some solid veteran infield depth.

Here’s more from around the NL Central…

  • Jason Heyward expects to be activated from the 10-day DL today, which creates an interesting roster decision for the Cubs, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat writes.  Top prospect Ian Happ has looked spectacular since being promoted last week and could stick with the club, through manager Joe Maddon said that the team wants Happ to get regular action wherever he plays, which could be somewhat difficult on Chicago’s crowded big league roster.  “That’s what happens when you’re good is you have tough decisions,” Maddon said.  “The fact that Ian has come up and done so well makes it even more difficult. We’ll try to figure it out and make our best guess.”  Happ brings a lot of versatility as a switch-hitter and a multi-positional player, so the Cubs could get him playing time in a variety of roles and instead demote another bench option such as Tommy La Stella or Albert Almora.  Heyward has missed two weeks due to a sprained right index finger, and was already back in the Cubs’ clubhouse after completing a one-game rehab stint in the minors.
  • The incentive bonuses for Scott Feldman and Drew Storen are broken down by Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer, as Storen has already reached his first incentive threshold (15 appearances) and Feldman will access his bonus money on Monday when he makes his 10th start of the season.  Feldman will earn $100K for that outing, and then another $100K or $200K for each successive start thereafter, up to 25 starts.  The righty also has extra cash available in relief incentives, though Feldman isn’t likely to be moved out of the Reds rotation anytime soon, due to both his own solid performance (a 4.29 ERA in 50 1/3 IP) and Cincy’s lack of healthy alternatives.  Storen has pitched very well out of the Reds bullpen and is in great shape to earn his $750K in available incentives for appearances, though attaining his games-finished bonuses could be difficult with Raisel Iglesias locked in at closer.
  • With the Pirates in last place and facing an uphill battle in the NL Central race, Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com argues that the Bucs should deal Gerrit Cole while the right-hander’s trade value is at its highest.  Cole is looking healthy after an injury-shortened 2016 and is pitching well, with a 2.84 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 50.3% grounder rate and 4.17 K/BB rate through 57 innings.  Between this front-of-the-rotation production and Cole being under team control through 2019, the Pirates would stand to obtain a major haul if Cole was dealt.  Gammons speculates that the Astros and Yankees would be the top two suitors, as they have enough minor league depth to afford the big price tag Pittsburgh would demand for Cole’s services.

NL Central Notes: Lackey Trade, Robert, Wacha, Happ, Theo

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Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch offers a look back at the stunning 2014 trade that the Cardinals pulled off with the Red Sox. While the deadline swap that brought in John Lackey devastated the St. Louis clubhouse at the time — Allen Craig and Joe Kelly went to Boston — it looks quite good for the team in retrospect. Goold explores it from all angles, including those of the players involved, while noting one of the intriguing remaining elements of the deal: Cards outfield prospect Dylan Carlson, who was taken with the comp pick the team added when Lackey turned down a qualifying offer after the 2015 season.

  • The Cardinals aren’t exactly hiding their interest in Cuban prospect Luis Robert, though it’s also still not fully clear just how hard the club will push to sign him. As Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, GM John Mozeliak acknowledges that he had a face-to-face meeting with Robert, but also wasn’t willing to telegraph the team’s direction. “It’s hard for me to characterize exactly how I would position ourselves,” he said, “but I definitely felt like our scouts in our international department have done a good job.” It’s still hard to handicap the running for Robert, who is drawing interest from quite a few teams around the league.
  • Cardinals righty Michael Wacha says it wasn’t his idea to skip a start, as Goold and Hummel write. Rather, it was a team decision to give the resurgent hurler a break, with the organization hoping to keep him fresh over the long haul. Wacha has shown improved velocity and results after struggling through an injury-marred 2016 season. “[A]nything you can bank now is smart,” Mozeliak explained, suggesting that there may not be another opportunity for an extended rest until the All-Star break.
  • Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein suggested that the team is open to keeping young outfielder Ian Happ on the MLB roster, as Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com reports on Twitter. “When you call someone up, you always have plans in pencil,” said Epstein. “Nothing’s ever written in ink. He’s feeling great at the plate.” Indeed, the 22-year-old has launched two home runs in his first three games. If the highly regarded Happ can prove he’s capable of handling major league pitching as it adjusts to him, he could provide a boost to the defending champs.
  • Meanwhile, Epstein tamped down any speculation that the Cubs or others might begin eyeing early trades, as Mooney further reports. Clubs around the league know that there’s still plenty of time for developments to change the calculus in any number of ways. For the Cubs, the current approach is the same as always, Epstein says: “We obviously have to prepare and allocate our scouting resources and whatnot. But it doesn’t make any sense to speculate on the nature of the trade market now, because it will look different in July than it does right now.”

Cubs Promote Ian Happ

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12:54pm: The Cubs have optioned righty Felix Pena to Iowa to make room for Happ, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets.

12:32pm: The Cubs will, in fact, promote Happ, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune writes (Twitter links). Happ will bat second and play right field for the Cubs today. No corresponding move has yet been announced.

11:28am: The Cubs could promote top prospect Ian Happ as a short-term replacement today as a result of injuries to Addison Russell, Jon Jay and Kris Bryant, Carrie Muskat of MLB.com’s tweets. Russell is currently listed as day-to-day with shoulder soreness. Jay left yesterday’s game due to back spasms, and Bryant sat out yesterday due to illness. A promotion would give Happ his first taste of big-league action. He is not yet on their 40-man roster.

The 22-year-old Happ was the ninth overall pick in the 2015 draft out of the University of Cincinnati. He’s raced through the minors and is off to a hot start with Triple-A Iowa, batting .298/.362/.615 with nine homers in 116 plate appearances thus far in 2017. MLB.com currently rates him the No. 23 prospect in the game, with Baseball America placing him at No. 55 and ESPN’s Keith Law (Insiders only) at No. 63. MLB.com’s praises the switch-hitter’s bat speed and plate discipline, noting that he could eventually become a 20-20 player in the big leagues.

Happ has split his time between second base and the outfield as a pro, although MLB.com suggests his eventual destination is left field. The Cubs, of course, have Kyle Schwarber in left and Javier Baez and Ben Zobrist available at second, although they’re generally flexible in their lineup construction, and it doesn’t appear they’re planning to clear a permanent space for Happ right now anyway. If they were to promote him now, the move might well be temporary, as Muskat suggests — the Cubs have plenty of talent if everyone is healthy, and Happ has limited Triple-A experience and would likely become a Super Two player if he were to arrive in the big leagues and remain there.

Prospect Notes: Rosario, Torres, Happ, Senzel, Gonsalves

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Keith Law of ESPN.com provides an updated ranking of his top fifty prospects (subscription required and recommended). He places a pair of New York shortstops — Amed Rosario of the Mets and Gleyber Torres of the Yankees — as the top prospects leaguewide. Young Phillies shortstop J.P. Crawford also cracks the top five, sandwiched between Dodgers first baseman Cody Bellinger and White Sox righty Michael Kopech, who takes honors as the top pre-MLB pitcher on the list.

More on some other potential stars:

  • With Jake Arrieta and John Lackey scheduled to become free agents after the season, the Cubs could dangle second base/outfield prospect Ian Happ for pitching help, says FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link). On the other hand, Rosenthal notes that Happ’s versatility likely means he isn’t as expendable to the Cubs as now-Royal Jorge Soler was. Happ, Law’s 46th-best prospect, has begun the year with a red-hot .293/.356/.683 line and five home runs in 45 plate appearances at Triple-A.
  • Reds third base prospect Nick Senzel, the second pick in last year’s draft, could be primed to reach the majors quickly, writes Ben Badler of Baseball America. By spending limited time in the minors, Senzel would follow in the footsteps of recently drafted hitters such as Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, Kyle Schwarber and Michael Conforto, all of whom reached the majors the year after they became professionals. Senzel, a top 10-caliber prospect, is only in High-A ball right now, though Badler scouted his season-opening series and came away impressed. The 21-year-old “showed a lot of positive hitting traits” and “looked comfortable at third base,” per Badler.
  • Twins left-hander Stephen Gonsalves will meet with team doctors in Minnesota for a shoulder exam during the upcoming week, tweets Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. Gonsalves, Baseball America’s 99th-ranked prospect, has been on Double-A Chattanooga’s disabled list since the first week of April. The 22-year-old laid waste to hitters at both the High-A and Double-A levels last season, but he also dealt with a shoulder strain in the fall. With Chattanooga, he logged a 1.82 ERA in 74 1/3 innings, helping to offset control problems (4.48 BB/9) with a high strikeout rate (10.78 per nine). BA’s Michael Lananna placed Gonsalves second among Twins prospect in November. (Update: Gonsalves already met with team doctors, and he checked out fine, general manager Thad Levine announced; Twitter link via Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com).

NL Notes: Giants, Blanco, Orioles, Voth, Happ

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Ian Desmond’s fractured hand is the big story coming out of the senior circuit today, though here are some more items from around the National League…

  • With a number of veterans in camp on minor league deals and quite a few jobs still to be decided, the Giants’ final roster cuts “are going to come down to the end of camp,” Bruce Bochy told reporters (including MLB.com’s Barry M. Bloom).  “I’ve already had some guys tell me, ’I’m glad I’m not you.’ I mean, they’re all good guys, experienced guys, and they’re doing a good job,” Bochy said.  As Bloom notes, versatility will be a big factor in the Giants’ decision, as a player who can handle multiple positions is a necessity given the team’s needs and lack of bench space.  Jimmy Rollins, Aaron Hill, and Mike Morse are a few of the notable veteran names still fighting for jobs.
  • Gregor Blanco received interest from the Orioles and Tigers this winter, but the outfielder tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he chose to sign a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks in part because of their running game and aggressive style of play.  Detroit’s connection to Blanco was previously reported, and while this is the first time the O’s have been linked to Blanco this winter, he makes sense as a target given how Baltimore searched the market for left-handed hitting, versatile outfielders for much of the offseason.
  • Austin Voth has been somewhat of an overlooked figure behind the Nationals’ other star prospects, though as Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post writes, Voth could now emerge in an important role as Washington’s top piece of starter depth.  Voth is battling with A.J. Cole, Vance Worley, and Erick Fedde for the “sixth starter” role, which is of no small importance given the injuries that inevitably crop up for a pitching staff over the course of a season.  A fifth-round pick for the Nats in 2013, Voth has a 2.84 ERA, 3.33 K/BB rate and 8.7 K/9 over 487 1/3 career innings in the minors.
  • With so many young Cubs stars already in place around the diamond, prospect Ian Happ is looking to help his chances of finding a regular role by playing multiple positions a la Ben Zobrist, Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com writes.  “He’s a perfect example to a young player on how to stay in the game and contribute. That’s who I want to emulate,” Happ said.  Originally drafted as an outfielder and second baseman as the ninth overall pick in the 2015 draft, Happ has already played second and all three outfield spots in the minors, plus he has been doing some work as a third baseman this spring.  In another piece on Happ, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat notes that Happ is developing well at second and is already showing some fine skills at the plate.  Happ is yet another impressive youngster in the Cubs’ pipeline, as he featured on top-100 prospect lists from MLB.com (28th), Baseball Prospectus (54th), Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law (both 63rd).

Cubs, First-Rounder Ian Happ Agree To Terms

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The Cubs and first-round pick Ian Happ have agreed to terms on a $3MM bonus, reports MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter). That bonus represents a savings of $351K for the Cubs in relation to the No. 9 selection’s slot value (per Baseball America).

An outfielder/second baseman out of Cincinnati, Happ was a consensus Top 25 talent in this year’s draft. ESPN’s Keith Law saw Happ the most favorably, ranking him seventh on his Top 100 list. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs also had Happ in his Top 10, ranking him ninth. Callis and Jonathan Mayo pegged him at No. 20 on their Top 200, and Happ ranked 24th on Baseball America’s Top 500.

There’s some debate as to whether Happ’s eventual home will be in the outfield grass or on the infield dirt, which likely contributed to the slight gap in the listed rankings. Law calls second base Happ’s likely position, and McDaniel, too, notes that he has the potential to play there. The MLB.com and BA scouting reports note that a corner outfield spot — likely left, due to lack of arm strength — is a likelier outcome, so it’s not a surprise to see him rank a bit further down those lists.

Happ’s bat seems to generate fewer question marks, as all four agree that he’s one of the most advanced hitters in this year’s class. ESPN notes that the switch-hitter has a better swing from the left side and has shown the ability to hit for power. BA notes that he has “excellent” bat speed from both sides of the plate, projecting as a plus hitter with average power. Happ’s also said to be a solid to above-average runner. McDaniel feels he can have four average-or-better tools on the 20-80 scouting scale, while MLB.com feels all five can be average or better.

Happ will add to the continually proliferating stable of premium young hitters in the Cubs’ minor league system. Though the team has already seen the likes of Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and Addison Russell emerge to lock down regular spots around the diamond, other names such as Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez, Arismendy Alcantara, Albert Almora, Billy McKinney and Gleyber Torres are still working toward that same goal (though of course each comes with varying timelines).

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