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J.T. Brubaker

Pirates’ JT Brubaker, Mike Burrows Receiving Second Opinions On Elbow Injuries

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Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk met with the team’s beat this afternoon (relayed by Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic). According to Tomczyk, right-handers JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows are each headed for second opinions after suffering elbow injuries. Burrows landed on the minor league injured list today with a sprain of his UCL.

It’s not a surprising development in Brubaker’s case. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported last week that Brubaker was weighing whether to undergo Tommy John surgery. That he’s now headed for a second opinion wouldn’t appear to bode well for his chance of avoiding going under the knife, though the club hasn’t definitively stated whether surgery is likely.

Brubaker had been one of Pittsburgh’s more durable arms over the past few seasons. He finished second on the team in innings in 2022 and topped 120 frames in each of the last two years. Brubaker has never posted an ERA better than last year’s 4.69 mark, but he’d shown decent strikeout and walk numbers while handling right-handed hitters reasonably well. If healthy, there was never much doubt he’d have secured a spot towards the back of the starting five again to enter the year.

That was put on hold this spring. Brubaker reported discomfort in his forearm/elbow area and was immediately shut down. The Bucs quickly placed him on the 60-day injured list, ruling him out at least until the end of May. With surgery seemingly a strong consideration, it’s possible he won’t be a factor at all this season.

Burrows hasn’t yet reached the major league level. An 11th round pick in 2018, the Connecticut native has been one of the Bucs’ more interesting pitching prospects. Baseball America slotted him ninth among Pittsburgh farmhands last offseason, praising his fastball-slider combination and solid control. BA suggests he could be a back-of-the-rotation starter if his changeup develops, although he’d probably be better suited for a bullpen role if he can’t find an average or better third pitch.

Pittsburgh added Burrows to the 40-man roster over the offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He started the year on optional assignment to Triple-A Indianapolis. After throwing five innings of one-run ball in his first outing, he was pulled in the second inning of his following appearance. Even if he can avoid surgery, the 23-year-old figures to be out for an extended period after imaging revealed some damage to the elbow ligament.

Burrows will continue to count against Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster while on the minor league injured list. If the Bucs wanted to clear a roster spot, they could recall him and place him on the major league 60-day IL. That’d require paying him at the prorated MLB minimum rate of $720K and allow him to accrue major league service.

Tommy John Surgery Among Options Under Consideration For Pirates’ JT Brubaker

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The Pirates placed starter JT Brubaker on the 60-day injured list over the weekend, officially keeping him out of action through late May. The right-hander has been dealing with discomfort in his throwing elbow, a nebulous but alarming issue for any pitcher.

While the Pirates haven’t yet provided a formal diagnosis or treatment plan, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Tommy John surgery is among the considerations. That’s not to say surgery is inevitable or necessarily likely, but it affirms Brubaker is dealing with a potentially serious issue.

Brubaker had entered spring camp assured of a spot in the Pittsburgh rotation. He took the ball 28 times last year, ranking second on the team with 144 innings. He allowed 4.69 earned runs per nine. That uninspiring mark was paired with more interesting peripherals, as he posted roughly average strikeout, walk and grounder rates. Brubaker punched out 22.8% of opponents, walked batters at an 8.4% clip and kept the ball on the ground 44% of the time.

An elevated .334 batting average on balls in play contributed to Brubaker’s mediocre results. Had his ERA more closely approached his passable underlying marks, he could have generated some attention at this summer’s trade deadline. Instead, Brubaker is going to miss at least a good chunk of the first half and could wind up needing season-ending surgery. He has exactly three years of major league service and qualified for arbitration last offseason, agreeing to a $2.275MM salary. He remains controllable through 2025.

With Brubaker on the shelf, righty Johan Oviedo has stepped into the starting five. Acquired from the Cardinals in last summer’s José Quintana/Chris Stratton trade, the 25-year-old Oviedo started seven games for Pittsburgh down the stretch. In 30 2/3 frames, he put up a 3.23 ERA despite walking nearly 12% of opponents. His ’23 season debut didn’t go well, as he was tagged for five runs (including three homers) over 4 2/3 innings during tonight’s outing in Boston. Mitch Keller, Rich Hill, Vince Velasquez and Roansy Contreras round out the present starting staff.

Pirates Claim Edwin Uceta, Transfer JT Brubaker To 60-Day IL

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The Pirates announced this afternoon that they have claimed right-hander Edwin Uceta off waivers from the Tigers. Detroit had designated Uceta for assignment ahead of Opening Day alongside Rony Garcia, who was outrighted to Triple-A, in order to make room for Chasen Shreve and Trey Wingenter on the 40-man roster. In a corresponding move, right-hander JT Brubaker was transferred to the 60-day injured list. Uceta has been optioned to Triple-A.

Brubaker had previously been placed on the 15-day IL to open the season due to what the Pirates termed as “elbow discomfort”. No timetable was given for Brubaker’s return, but given his transfer to the 60-day IL, it’s safe to say he won’t return until at least June. Though Brubaker has been part of the Pirates rotation since the shortened 2020 season with an unimpressive career ERA of 4.99, there was reason for optimism headed into 2023, as his 2022 season featured solid peripherals that indicated he could be a quality starter going forward: despite a 4.69 ERA, he had a solid 3.92 FIP along with a 44% groundball rate, a 22.8% strikeout rate, and a 8.4% walk rate that all paint him as a roughly league average starter for the 2022 campaign. With Brubaker set to miss an extended period of time, Johan Oviedo, who the Pirates acquired from the Cardinals in last summer’s Jose Quintana deal, figures to have a more secure hold on a rotation spot.

As for Uceta, the 25 year-old right-hander has seen big league action in each of the past two seasons, but has struggled in a small sample both times. Between his time with the Dodgers in 2022 and the Diamondbacks in 2022, Uceta has posted a 6.27 ERA in 37 1/3 innings, though his 4.46 FIP indicates there may be some bad luck baked into those results. The Tigers claimed him on waivers this offseason before designating him for assignment after he posted a 4.91 ERA in camp, though he did strike out 29.2% of batters faced during his 11 innings of work this spring. Uceta has demonstrated the ability to work in either short relief or multi-inning long relief during his career and figures to serve as depth for the Pirates bullpen in Triple-A.

Pirates Designate Ryan Vilade For Assignment

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The Pirates announced Thursday that they’ve designated outfielder Ryan Vilade for assignment and selected the contracts of left-hander Rob Zastryzny and catcher Jason Delay, both of whom were in spring training as non-roster invitees. Lefty Jarlin Garcia (nerve injury) was placed on the 60-day injured list to open a second spot on the 40-man roster. Righties JT Brubaker (right elbow discomfort) and Robert Stephenson (right elbow inflammation) have both been placed on the 15-day injured list as well.

Vilade, 24, was claimed off waivers from the Rockies back in November. He ranked among Colorado’s best prospects just one year ago but struggled in his second go through the Triple-A level, slashing a tepid .249/.345/.352 with five homers and ten steals through 99 games in that hitter-friendly setting. Originally drafted as a shortstop, Vilade has moved down the defensive spectrum, first shifting to third base before a move to the outfield corners. He went just 3-for-18 without an extra-base hit this spring, finishing with a .167/.211/.167 line in 19 trips to the plate. The Pirates will have a week to trade Vilade, release him or pass him through outright waivers.

Zastryzny, 31, returned to the Majors in 2022 after a three-year layoff and tossed four innings between the Mets and Angels. He’s making the first Opening Day roster of his 10-year professional career, Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic points out (Twitter link). Zastryzny earned it this spring, punching out 10 of his 29 opponents against one walk while firing 7 1/3 innings without allowing an earned run.

In parts of four big league seasons, mostly with the Cubs, Zastryzny has a 4.66 ERA and a 34-to-17 K/BB ratio in 38 2/3 innings of work. His Triple-A numbers across six seasons are generally similar, albeit with slightly better strikeout and walk rates. Zastryzny will give manager Derek Shelton a second lefty in the ’pen, joining Rule 5 pick Jose Hernandez.

Delay, 28, made his big league debut with the Bucs in 2022 but was removed from the 40-man roster and re-signed to a minor league deal. He had a rough showing in camp, going just 3-for-20 with three walks, but he’s a strong defensive backstop and likely landed the backup gig by virtue of his glove. Delay posted plus framing marks last season, has a career 31% caught-stealing rate in the minors and was credited with two Defensive Runs Saved in 436 innings behind the dish last year. He beat out fellow non-roster invitees Kevin Plawecki and Tyler Heineman and will open the season as the backup to defensive standout Austin Hedges.

Garcia’s placement on the 60-day IL comes as little surprise. The team announced he’d be shut down midway through camp, and after a ten days of not throwing, they further announced that he was dealing with a nerve injury in his biceps and would continue to be shut down for as many as four to five weeks. He’ll need to completely build back up after that delay. Stephenson pitched just two innings this spring and was slowed by elbow discomfort, and Shelton acknowledged last week that an IL stint was likely.

There’s more concern with regard to Brubaker. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweeted this morning that Brubaker’s elbow injury is “not minor” and the Pirates fear there’s a chance he could be lost for the season. The team hasn’t provided a formal diagnosis or update beyond today’s placement on the injured list, but additional news on Brubaker will likely follow in the near future. The 29-year-old Brubaker made 28 starts last season and pitched to a 4.69 ERA but with much more encouraging marks in FIP (3.92) and SIERA (3.97).

JT Brubaker Likely To Begin Season On IL With Elbow/Forearm Discomfort

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Pirates right-hander JT Brubaker is dealing with discomfort in his right elbow/forearm, manager Derek Shelton tells Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Brubaker is likely headed for the injured list to start the season.

Brubaker, 29, has been part of the club’s rotation for the past three seasons. Last year, he made 28 starts with a 4.69 ERA that might not look too impressive at first glance. However, it’s possible that figure masks his true talent, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored. His 22.8% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 44% ground ball rate were all pretty close to league average last year. Some bad luck may have been in play, as his .334 batting average on balls in play and 68.8% strand rate were both on the unfortunate side of average. His 3.92 FIP and 3.97 SIERA suggest that better results could have been possible going forward.

The Bucs would have loved to have seen that materialize here in 2023 but it will have to wait. It’s unknown exactly how long Brubaker will be on the shelf but an injury to a pitcher’s throwing elbow or forearm is always concerning. The club will surely do some further testing and figure out the next steps forward.

In the meantime, the Pirates will have to proceed with one less starter in their rotation. The four other spots figure to be occupied by Mitch Keller, Rich Hill, Vince Velasquez and Roansy Contreras. While Brubaker is out, it’s possible that Johan Oviedo steps up and takes a few starts, though the club also has Luis Ortiz and Mike Burrows on the 40-man roster. “I think there’s a good chance it could be Oviedo,” Shelton tells Mackey. “We’re still working through things as we finalize our roster. With the fact that he’s been lengthened out, he’s the most likely one out of the group. I think there’s a good chance we could see that.”

Oviedo, 25, came over to the club in the trade that sent José Quintana to the Cardinals. Though the Cards had moved him to a relief role, the Pirates gave him another chance to start. He took the ball seven times after the trade and posted a 3.23 ERA. He may now get a chance to build on that at the start of the 2023 campaign.

The Pirates’ Potential Rotation Trade Chip

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Virtually all the attention on the Pirates’ trade possibilities this offseason has centered on All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds. Extension talks hit a snag, and Reynolds requested a trade. Pittsburgh has maintained they won’t move off their lofty asking price on the 27-year-old, who’s controllable for three more seasons. They seem open to offers but have at least signaled they won’t make a deal unless blown away by the package of young talent they’d receive.

Whether Reynolds gets dealt is one of the bigger remaining storylines of the offseason, but he’s certainly not the only player on the Pittsburgh roster who could attract attention. The Bucs have stockpiled a number of veterans on one-year commitments — Ji-Man Choi, Vince Velasquez and Austin Hedges among them — who could be midseason trade candidates. Star closer David Bednar would have a ton of appeal in the unlikely event the Pirates made him available. One player who has seemingly flown under the radar in rumors is JT Brubaker, but he seems the most plausible trade candidate in Pittsburgh’s rotation.

At first glance, it looks obvious why Brubaker hasn’t been the subject of much public trade speculation. He has pitched in three big league seasons and has a 4.99 ERA through 315 2/3 innings. The righty hasn’t posted an ERA better than this past season’s 4.69 mark in any of those years. Despite pitching his home games in a very favorable park, Brubaker hasn’t managed to keep runs off the board consistently. He’s not going to be a primary target for a win-now club that feels they’re a starter away from contention.

That said, teams will obviously look beyond a pitcher’s ERA in evaluating that player, and Brubaker has shown more promise than one might surmise with a cursory glance at his Baseball Reference page. ERA estimators like FIP and SIERA have viewed the Akron product more favorably than his ERA would suggest in all three of his big league campaigns. That’s a reflection of strikeout and walk numbers that’d look right in line with what one would expect from their fourth starter.

Brubaker has struck out 23-24% of opponents in all three seasons, while he’s kept his walk percentage in the 7-8% range. Over 144 innings in 2022, the former sixth-round draftee put up a 22.8% strikeout rate that was narrowly better than the 21.6% league average for starters. He walked 8.4% of batters faced, slightly higher than the 7.5% league mark. On a pitch-for-pitch basis, Brubaker also fared reasonably. He generated swinging strikes on 11.8% of his offerings, right in line with the rate from his prior two seasons. That’s a tick better than the 10.7% league figure.

It’s a fairly similar story from a batted ball perspective. Brubaker’s 44% grounder rate is fine, marginally better than par. Even his pitches themselves seem almost exactly average. His sinker checked in at 93.1 MPH this past season, which is middle-of-the-pack. Brubaker’s mid-80s slider is the highlight of his arsenal, a quality swing-and-miss pitch he uses with frequency against same-handed hitters. That’s his go-to offering once he gets ahead in the count against righties, and it has been effective at finishing off opponents when he needs a strikeout.

While Brubaker’s strikeout/walk profile is solid, his run prevention has yet to match up. That’s not entirely poor luck, as he’s given up a decent amount of hard contact. Left-handed hitters have given him real trouble, which isn’t especially surprising for a sinker-slider specialist who doesn’t regularly feature a changeup in his arsenal. Brubaker doesn’t have a great weapon to stay off barrels against lefty hitters, and they hit him hard in 2022. Over 298 plate appearances, opposing southpaws put a .269/.339/.481 line. While Brubaker induced grounders on over half his batted balls against right-handed opponents, lefties got the ball in the air roughly 65% of the time. Despite facing 50 more right-handed hitters on the season, he allowed three more homers to left-handed batters.

That’s a legitimate concern, and that contact profile partially explains the gap between his 4.99 career ERA and the more favorable marks from FIP (4.43) and SIERA (4.04). Without finding a better weapon against lefties, he’ll probably underperform those estimators to some extent. That said, he’s likely due for some positive regression, even if it’s not all the way to the 4.04 mark SIERA would suggest. Brubaker finished in the bottom 20 starters in left-on-base rate this year, and more favorable sequencing of the baserunners he allows should naturally improve his ERA. If another team feels confident in their ability to tinker with his repertoire or improve his changeup to better handle southpaws, they could eye him as an interesting change-of-scenery play.

To be clear, Brubaker isn’t going to come anywhere close to attracting the attention Reynolds or Bednar would on the trade market. Yet there’s some appeal for clubs in securing average to slightly below-average innings at little financial cost. The market for mid-tier starting pitchers has been extremely strong. Players like Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon secured four-year deals with underlying marks not much better than Brubaker’s. Brubaker wouldn’t have commanded that kind of outlay as a free agent given his platoon/hard contact issues. Yet one could argue he’s better than Kyle Gibson, who landed a $10MM guarantee from the Orioles for his age-35 season, or Jordan Lyles, who has agreed to terms on a two-year, $17MM pact with the Royals.

Brubaker turned 29 in November, and he’s controllable for three more seasons. Entering his first year of arbitration eligibility, he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an even $2MM salary. He’s affordable enough for any team, and while that includes the Pirates, they don’t seem likely to take an arbitration-eligible starter off the table as they continue their rebuild. Pittsburgh GM Ben Cherington and his staff don’t need to make a deal, but Brubaker’s not the type of player they’d steadfastly refuse to entertain relinquishing.

The free agent rotation market has gained plenty of steam the past few weeks. There hasn’t been any movement on the trade front for starting pitching, although that figures to pick up with the number of free agent hurlers dwindling. Brubaker wouldn’t be as exciting an addition as landing Pablo López or Trevor Rogers from the Marlins, but he should be on teams’ radars as a fallback target later in the winter.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

IL Placements: Brubaker, Middleton

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Catching up on some injured-list transactions around baseball…

  • The Pirates placed right-hander JT Brubaker on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to September 16.  Right-hander Luis Ortiz was called up to take Brubaker’s spot on the active roster.  Brubaker was officially listed as sidelined due to right arm inflammation, though lat soreness was given as the reason for his early exit from Thursday’s game, when he lasted just three innings.  Over 141 1/3 innings and 27 starts for the Bucs this season, Brubaker has a 4.58 ERA and some unimpressive Statcast numbers, though his SIERA is a more favorable 3.95.  His ability to eat innings could put him in the conversation for a spot in Pittsburgh’s rotation next season, even if he doesn’t make it back for one more start in 2022.
  • The Diamondbacks placed right-hander Keynan Middleton on the 15-day IL due to a sprained left big toe.  Righty Luis Frias was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  The toe sprain will likely end what has been an injury-plagued season for Middleton, who missed a couple of months due to elbow inflammation and a right ankle sprain.  Between the injuries and time in the minor leagues, Middleton was limited to 17 innings in 18 appearances with the D’Backs, and he posted a 5.29 ERA over that rather small sample size.  Now in his sixth MLB season, Middleton has yet to regain the early promise of his first two seasons with the Angels, before Tommy John surgery sidelined him in 2018.  He inked a minors deal with the D’Backs last winter and probably seems likely to be back on the open market this offseason in search of another non-guaranteed deal.

Pirates Claim Robert Stephenson, Designate Kevin Padlo

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TODAY: The Pirates have officially added Stephenson to their active roster, with JT Brubaker headed to the paternity list in the corresponding move.

AUGUST 27: The Pirates have claimed right-hander Robert Stephenson off waivers from the Rockies.  Infielder Kevin Padlo was designated for assignment in the corresponding 40-man roster move, and the Pirates will make another move on their active roster when Stephenson joins the team.

Stephenson was DFA’ed by Colorado earlier this week, and didn’t last long on the waiver wire before the Pirates snatched him up.  It isn’t surprising to see the Bucs take a chance on a live arm who has some of the highest velocity of any pitcher in baseball, and Stephenson was also a former top prospect for the division-rival Reds during his minor league career.

That early promise led to some good results as a reliever in 2019 and 2021, but this season has been a struggle for the right-hander.  Stephenson has a 6.04 ERA over 44 2/3 innings, due to a below-average 18.8% strikeout rate and a lot of hard contact allowed.  As fast (97mph) as Stephenson’s average four-seamer may be, batters have hit .379 against the pitch.

If Pittsburgh’s coaching staff can get Stephenson back to his 2021 form, he’ll be a nice bullpen addition for the Pirates both for the remainder of this season and in 2023, as Stephenson still has a third and final season of arbitration eligibility remaining.  The righty is out of minor league options, so the Pirates would have a DFA decision to make of their own if they wanted to move Stephenson to the minors and off their 40-man roster.

Padlo is no stranger to the DFA carousel, as he has now been designated for assignment for the fifth time in a little over a year.  The Mariners claimed Padlo off waivers from the Rays in August 2021, starting a cycle that has been Padlo go from Seattle to the Giants, back to the Mariners, and then to Pittsburgh earlier this month when the Bucs claimed Padlo away from the M’s.

All of the movement has resulted in only 34 Major League plate appearances for Padlo this season (split over the Pirates, Mariners, and Giants), but he has performed well over 278 Triple-A PA.  The infielder has hit .270/.345/.484 with 12 homers and 13 doubles at the highest minor league level, continuing what has been a solid set of career Triple-A numbers.

Between that production and Padlo’s versatility as a third baseman who can be moved around the infield and into left field, it isn’t hard to see why teams keep having interest in Padlo, even if that interest has yet to manifest itself into a regular MLB job.  As such, it seems quite possible that another club might claim Padlo away from the Pirates.

Pirates Place JT Brubaker, Duane Underwood Jr. On Injured List

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The Pirates announced a handful of roster moves today, placing right-handed pitchers JT Brubaker and Duane Underwood Jr. on the injured list, both with right shoulder inflammation. A couple of fellow righties, Kyle Keller and Shea Spitzbarth, are taking their place.

Brubaker has been one of the more reliable members of a Pirates club that is enduring a dismal season. His 124 1/3 innings lead the club by a significant margin, with Tyler Anderson and Wil Crowe being the only other Pirates with more than 80. Anderson, of course, isn’t even with the club anymore after being dealt to the Mariners before the trade deadline. Brubaker’s ERA isn’t great at 5.36, though his 24% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate are both slightly better than league average. He had just been activated off the injured list yesterday, after missing some time with a thumb contusion, but left his start after three innings.

Similarly, Underwood has been a solid-yet-unspectacular contributor out of the bullpen, throwing 72 2/3 innings with an ERA of 4.33. His 20.3% strikeout rate is a bit below average, though his 8.4% walk rate is slightly better than the league-wide rate of 8.7%.

With the club well out of contention, they can prioritize long-term health over short-term competitiveness at this stage of the season. Both Brubaker and Underwood are 27 years old and won’t yet be arbitration eligible by season’s end.

Pirates Activate JT Brubaker, Option Kyle Keller

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The Pirates activated JT Brubaker to start today’s game against the Cubs. To make room on the roster, Kyle Keller was optioned to Triple-A, per Kevin Gorman of Tribune-ReviewSports (via Twitter).

The 27-year-old Brubaker has started a career-high 23 games for the Pirates, pitching to a 5.27 ERA/5.23 FIP in 121 1/3 innings. Brubaker may not be considered a long-term piece for Pittsburgh, but he has eaten valuable innings this year and will probably have the opportunity to do so again next season. He has a 23.7 percent strikeout rate, 6.9 percent walk rate, and 43.1 percent groundball rate, all of which are close to league average.

Keller has made 23 appearances out of the bullpen, pitching to a 7.13 ERA/7.62 FIP. The 28-year-old has suffered from wandering command, walking 16.1 percent of batters while only striking out 22.3 percent of opponents.

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