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Jacob Stallings

Rockies Sign Dakota Hudson, Jacob Stallings

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6:55pm: MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports the finances for the free agent deals (on X). Hudson will make $1.5MM and can earn another $1.5MM in incentives. Stallings is guaranteed $2MM, taking the form of a $1.5MM salary next year and a $500K buyout on a 2025 mutual option.

2:24pm: The Rockies are planning to announce one-year deals with right-hander Dakota Hudson and catcher Jacob Stallings, per a report from Thomas Harding of MLB.com. The Rockies subsequently announced the moves, announcing two corresponding moves as well. Catcher Brian Serven was claimed off waivers by the Cubs while infielder Alan Trejo was outrighted to Triple-A.

A first-round selection by the Cardinals in the 2016 draft, Hudson was a quick riser who made his big league debut with the club back in 2018. Early in his career, the groundballer significantly outdid his peripheral stats to perform at a mid-rotation level for the Cardinals. From his big league debut until the end of the shortened 2020 campaign, Hudson impressed with a sterling 3.17 ERA in 241 innings of work despite a concerning 4.74 FIP. That elevated FIP was thanks primarily to a subpar 18.1% strikeout rate against an elevated 11.6% walk rate. Only Andrew Cashner, Antonio Senzatela, and Clayton Richard posted worse K-BB ratios than Hudson during that time among pitchers with at least 200 innings of work. With that being said, Hudson’s whopping 57.3% grounder rate actually led all pitchers over the same period.

Hudson lost nearly the whole 2021 season to Tommy John surgery and his performance began to take a turn for the worse the following season. In 139 2/3 innings of work across 27 appearances (26 starts) that year, Hudson saw his strikeout rate plummet to just 13.1% while his walk rate stayed relatively stagnant at 10.2%. That extreme lack of swing and miss left Hudson with a career-worst 4.45 ERA despite a still-strong 53% groundball rate and just 7.2% of the fly balls he did give up leaving the park for home runs.

Those red flags in Hudson’s profile led to an even more difficult 2023 season, where the right-hander spent much of the season in the minor leagues and struggled to a 4.98 ERA with a 5.06 FIP in 81 1/3 innings of work. When looking exclusively at the time Hudson spent in the Cardinals rotation following the departures of Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery at the trade deadline, Hudson’s numbers are even more concerning as he posted a 5.23 ERA and 5.45 FIP in 62 innings across those 11 starts. Hudson’s peripheral numbers also declined significantly as his groundball rate dipped to 51.5%, his strikeout rate fell to 12.7%, and his fastball velocity cratered to 91.3 mph. Each of those figures was the worst of his career and a far cry from the 57.3% grounder rate, 18.1% strikeout rate, and 93.8 mph fastball velocity Hudson showed in the first three seasons of his career.

Given Hudson’s longtime struggles and worsening peripherals, it wasn’t much of a surprise when St. Louis opted to non-tender the right-hander back in November rather than retain him for the 2024 campaign. While Hudson’s salary in Colorado isn’t yet known, it’s unlikely to be higher than Hudson’s arbitration projection (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) of $3.7MM. Given that, the signing is a solid, low-cost gamble by the Rockies. Groundballers like Hudson are less subject to the difficulties of pitching at Coors Field than pitchers that allow more contact in the air, as highlighted by the previous successes of arms like German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela in the ballpark.

With that being said, both of those aforementioned hurlers figure to open the season on the injured list while rehabbing Tommy John surgery. That leaves the Rockies without their rotation’s backbone, and Hudson figures to join the club’s Opening Day rotation alongside Kyle Freeland and Austin Gomber as well as fellow offseason acquisition Cal Quantrill. Even if Hudson can’t recapture his previous form in Colorado, he could eat innings for the club until Marquez and Freeland are ready to return. And if Hudson manages to find success with the Rockies, the club can control the 29-year-old through arbitration in 2025.

Stallings, 34 last month, was a non-tendered back in November by the Marlins. A seventh-round pick in the 2012 draft by the Pirates, Stallings made his big league debut in 2016 and received brief cups of coffee in the majors over three seasons before earning a regular role as the club’s back-up catcher in 2019. He made the most of the opportunity, combining strong defense behind the plate with a respectable .262/.325/.382 (82 wRC+) slash line in 210 plate appearances. That strong full-season debut earned Stallings a look as the club’s primary catcher over the next two seasons, and he did well for himself in the role with a .246/.333/.371 (92 wRC+) line in 154 games behind the plate. Stallings also saw his already solid defense behind the plate improve to the point of winning a Gold Glove at the position in 2021.

During the 2021-22 offseason, the Pirates decided to ship Stallings to Miami in exchange for a package of three players. That decision proved to be a wise one as Stallings saw his performance quickly crater upon joining the Marlins. During his two seasons with the club, he’s slashed just .210/.287/.290 (62 wRC+) in 660 trips to the plate while his formerly Gold Glove caliber defense has crumbled to more or less league average. Statcast estimates Stallings to have been worth +2 framing runs and +5 blocking runs in 2021; by contrast, the veteran was worth -5 framing runs and just +2 blocking runs this past season. That massive downturn in performance on both sides of the ball led the Marlins to non-tender Stallings prior to his final trip through arbitration, where he projected to earn $3.6MM.

Like Hudson, the details of Stallings’s arrangement with the Rockies are not yet clear, though his guarantee is unlikely to surpass that aforementioned $3.6MM figure. In Colorado, Stallings figures to be reunited with Elias Diaz after the two shared time behind the plate in Pittsburgh back in 2019. After earning his first career All Star appearance in 2023, Diaz figures to remain the club’s primary catcher. With that said, Stallings represents a considerable upgrade over the combination of Serven and Austin Wynns the Rockies used to back up Diaz last year. With a stronger backup option to Diaz, the club can afford to take some of the load off of Diaz’s shoulders after a season where he caught a whopping 126 games.

Speaking of Serven, the 28-year-old backstop is headed to Chicago after being squeezed off the Rockies’ 40-man roster by the addition of Stallings. A fifth-round pick by the Rockies back in 2016, Serven made his big league debut in 2022 but has struggled to hit at the big league level with a career .195/.248/.314 slash line in 228 major league plate appearances. Serven appears unlikely to supplant Yan Gomes or Miguel Amaya as part of the Cubs’ primary catching tandem, but he has options remaining and could provide depth for the club at the Triple-A level alongside the likes of Jorge Alfaro and Joe Hudson, both of whom the Cubs brought in on minor league deals earlier this offseason.

As for Trejo, the 27-year-old made his big league debut with the Rockies back in 2021 and has held a utility role with the club ever since, slashing .243/.292/.367 in 145 career big league games while playing second and third base as well as shortstop. Trejo figures to head to Triple-A to open the season and act as non-roster infield depth for the Rockies going forward.

Five Non-Tendered Bats To Keep An Eye On This Offseason

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Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline sees club’s allow players under team control to head for the open market early, whether it be due to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a need for additional space on the club’s 40-man roster. Last offseason saw one of the most notable non-tenders in recent memory as the Dodgers made the decision to part ways with Cody Bellinger. Bellinger, of course, went on to sign with the Cubs and post a resurgent season, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs en route to a top-10 finish in NL MVP voting. Bellinger’s strong season earned him the #2 spot on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list this offseason, where we projected him for a twelve-year, $264MM deal.

A player of Bellinger’s caliber- a two-time All Star with MVP and Rookie of the Year awards under his belt- being non-tendered is exceptionally rare, and there’s little reason to believe that any of this offseason’s non-tendered players will reach those sort of heights in 2024. That being said, plenty of players wind up non-tendered and go on to have strong careers afterwards: Kyle Schwarber, Jeimer Candelario, Kevin Gausman, and Matt Strahm are among the players in recent memory who have gone on to find success as big league regulars following a non-tender.

With an unusually weak class of free agent hitters on tap for this offseason, teams figure to be more incentivized than ever to uncover a diamond in the rough in search of offensive upgrades this winter. Let’s take a look at five hitters who hit free agency following last week’s non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the coming offseason. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2024 season in parentheses.

Mike Ford (31)

Ford made his MLB debut with the Yankees in 2019. He hit exceptionally well in a part-time role, slashing .259/.350/.559 (134 wRC+) with 12 homers in just 163 trips to the plate. Despite that strong performance, Ford would not clear 100 plate appearances in a season again until 2022, when he struggled through 50 games at the big league level while bouncing between the Braves, Angels, Mariners, and Giants. In 149 trips to the plate between the aforementioned four clubs, Ford hit a paltry .206/.302/.313 (81 wRC+). He received another big league opportunity in Seattle this season, however, and managed to make the most of it with a solid rebound campaign.

Upon being called up in early June, Ford played on a semi-regular basis with a solid .228/.323/.475 slash line with 16 home runs in 251 trips to the plate. Overall, that performance was good for a well above-average wRC+ of 123. Despite his successful season, the Mariners non-tendered Ford rather than offer him an arbitration-level contract that MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected would be worth $1.5MM. Still, Ford figures to be a cheap source of optionable left-handed power for a club with an opening at either first base or DH, and could prove to be a solid pickup for teams looking to boost their offense in 2024 who can afford to offer him at-bats.

Kyle Lewis (28)

After being selected eleventh-overall by the Mariners in the 2016 draft, Lewis began his big league career with a bang by slashing .268/.293/.592 with six home runs during an 18-game cup of coffee towards the end of the 2019 season. The strong initial performance earned Lewis an everyday role in center field during the shortened 2020 season. It was an opportunity Lewis made the most of as he slashed .262/.364/.437 (127 wRC+) while playing quality defense in center en route to an AL Rookie of the Year award.

Unfortunately, since have gone off the rails for Lewis since then. Knee injuries, a concussion, and illness have sidelined him much of the time since then, and he’s hit a paltry .203/.281/.342 in 70 MLB games when he has been able to take the field. That being said, Lewis hit exceptionally well at the Triple-A level for the Diamondbacks this year, with a .371/.457/.641 slash line in 293 trips to the plate. That performance wasn’t enough to convince Arizona to spend a projected $1.61MM on Lewis’s services in arbitration this year, but it’s certainly possible it signals that Lewis could return to being an above-average regular in the big leagues if he can stay healthy long enough to find an extended opportunity.

Nick Senzel (29)

Senzel was the second overall pick in the 2016 draft and made his big league debut with the Reds back in 2019. He performed acceptably in his rookie season, adjusting on the fly to become the club’s regular center fielder after spending his entire professional career prior to 2019 on the infield dirt. Still, his bat left something to be desired as he slashed just .256/.315/.427, good for a wRC+ of 87. Senzel struggled to stay healthy following the 2019 campaign, however, appearing in just 59 games over the next two seasons. He returned to semi-regular playing time in 2021, but struggled badly at the plate with a weak slash line of just .231/.296/.306 in 420 trips to the plate.

Though his offense improved slightly in 2023 as he slashed .236/.297/.399 with 13 home runs in 330 plate appearances as he split time between second base, third base, and all three outfield spots, that performance did not convince the Reds to tender him a contract worth a projected $3MM this offseason. Senzel’s non-tender was hardly a surprise given Cincinnati’s excess of positional talent and his recent struggles. That said, it’s easy to see Senzel being a valuable piece of a club’s bench mix in 2024 given his versatility and career .287/.334/.460 slash line against southpaws and it’s certainly feasible a player of his prospect pedigree could take a step forward if allotted regular playing time.

Jacob Stallings (34)

By far the oldest player on this list, Stallings is a veteran of eight MLB seasons and first joined the Pirates organization as a seventh-round pick all the way back in 2012. After struggling to catch on in a regular role early in his career, Stallings became the regular catcher in Pittsburgh during the 2019 season and spent the next three years as a quality regular behind the plate, slashing a decent .251/.331/.374 (89 wRC+) while playing excellent defense behind the plate that earned him a Gold Glove award in 2021. Unfortunately, Stallings’s career took a turn for the worse upon being traded to Miami. Over the past two seasons, he’s slashed just .210/.287/.290 in 203 games as his defensive metrics have collapsed behind the plate. Those struggles made it an easy decision for the Marlins to non-tender Stallings rather than offer him a contract that projected to be worth $3.6MM for the 2024 season.

Stallings is perhaps the least likely on this list to be a productive regular in 2024. After all, he’s been well below average on both sides of the ball the past two seasons and is entering his mid-thirties. That being said, He’s just two seasons removed from a 2.5 fWAR campaign that saw him post slightly better offensive numbers than the average catcher while being among the strongest defenders behind the plate in the league. Given the constant need for catching depth around the game, it seems likely Stallings will be afforded plenty of opportunity to recapture his old form as a solid two-way catcher, and he’d only need to find success at one or the other to be a solid backup option.

Juan Yepez (26)

Perhaps the most unusual entrant on this list, Yepez was non-tendered by the Cardinals last week despite not yet being eligible for arbitration. Yepez made his big league debut as a 24-year-old during the 2022 season, and made a solid impression during his rookie campaign. Though he was blocked at his native position of first base by Paul Goldschmidt, Yepez split time between DH and all four corner spots while slashing a solid .253/.296/.447 with 12 home runs in 274 trips to the plate. Unfortunately, Yepez struggled badly in his sophomore season, slashing just .183/.246/.300 in his 65 trips to the plate in the majors this year. His time in Triple-A didn’t go much better, as he posted a mediocre slash line of .255/.323/.414 in 86 games at the level.

While that down season led the Cardinals to part ways with Yepez to clear room on the 40-man roster, it’s worth noting that Yepez was blocked by an already-crowded Cardinals outfield mix at the big league level. Given his limited opportunities at the big league level to this point in his career, his relative youth, and a career .273/.349/.515 slash line at the Triple-A level, it’s easy to see how Yepez could be the latest late-career breakout candidate to emerge from St. Louis, not unlike Adolis Garcia, Luke Voit, and Patrick Wisdom before him.

National League Non-Tenders: 11/17/23

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The deadline to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible players is tonight at 7:00pm CT. Here’s a rundown of fairly minor players on National League teams who have been non-tendered today. This post will be updated as more decisions are revealed. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for all players eligible for arbitration last month.

All players who are non-tendered before this evening’s deadline go directly into free agency without being placed on waivers. They’ll be eligible to sign with any of the league’s 30 teams. It’s not uncommon to see non-tendered players almost immediately return to their previous organization on a minor league deal.

The transactions:

Latest Moves

Earlier

  • The Reds have non-tendered relievers Derek Law and Reiver Sanmartin. Cincinnati also confirmed the previously reported non-tender of Nick Senzel.
  • In addition to Rowdy Tellez and Brandon Woodruff, the Brewers have non-tendered right-hander J.C. Mejía. He failed a PED test in September, the second such result of his career, and was suspended for 162 games.
  • Former Rookie of the Year winner Kyle Lewis was non-tendered by the Diamondbacks. He played in only 16 games after being acquired from the Mariners last offseason.
  • The Cubs non-tendered relievers Ethan Roberts, Brandon Hughes and Codi Heuer. All three are recovering from surgeries.
  • Right-hander Tommy Doyle was non-tendered by the Rockies. Colorado designated him for assignment when acquiring Cal Quantrill this morning.
  • The Cardinals have non-tendered catcher Andrew Knizner, first baseman Juan Yepez and starting pitchers Jake Woodford and Dakota Hudson. St. Louis reportedly tried to deal Hudson this afternoon but evidently did not find a taker.
  • The Mets have non-tendered relievers Jeff Brigham, Sam Coonrod and Trevor Gott. New York also cut loose infielder Luis Guillorme and confirmed the reported non-tender of Dan Vogelbach.
  • Left-hander Josh Fleming was non-tendered by the Phillies, the team announced. Philadelphia just snagged the southpaw off waivers from the Rays a few weeks ago.
  • The Marlins have non-tendered catcher Jacob Stallings and infielder Garrett Hampson, per a club announcement. Stallings spent two seasons as the primary catcher after being acquired from the Pirates at the 2021-22 offseason. Hampson signed a minor league deal with the Fish last season.
  • The Pirates non-tendered Osvaldo Bido and Hunter Stratton, tweets Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Neither had yet been eligible for arbitration. Both right-handers made their big league debuts in 2023; Mackey suggests the Bucs will try to bring them back on minor league pacts.
  • The Nationals announced they’ve non-tendered first baseman Dominic Smith and right-hander Cory Abbott. Both players were designated for assignment earlier in the week, making this an inevitability.

NL East Notes: Castellanos, Marlins, Nationals

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Miami native Nick Castellanos was heavily linked to the Marlins when he was a free agent during the 2021-22 offseason, and Castellanos told The Athletic’s Matt Gelb earlier this week that he very nearly agreed to join the team before the lockout halted winter business in early December 2021.  “If I wasn’t advised to be patient and wait until after the lockout to sign, I would have been over there,” Castellanos said.  Instead, the Marlins’ plans changed during the freeze, with some reports tying Derek Jeter’s departure as club CEO to ownership’s decision to not expand the payroll quite so much once the lockout was settled.  That meant Castellanos was now without his top suitor, until he signed with the Phillies for a five-year, $100MM deal.

Castellanos admitted that it took a while to get over the disappointment of not playing in his hometown, a “dream” scenario that would’ve allowed Castellanos to be near his son Liam at all times, and play for one of his baseball heroes in Jeter.  This feeling may have contributed to Castellanos’ lackluster numbers for much of the 2022 season, but the Phillies’ run to the World Series reinvigorated him and the outfielder delivered a more productive season this year.  “I can never sit and say I am unfortunate because I’m blessed and I get to play here,” he said.  “I get to play for a great organization.  I get to play with one of the most intense fan bases in the sports world.  I have so much gratitude for all of that.”

More from around the NL East…

  • The Marlins figure to be looking for catching upgrades this winter, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald looks at the free agent market to see what options the Fish might prefer to the Jacob Stallings/Nick Fortes combo.  Jackson also feels the Marlins could consider trading prospects for a veteran backstop, but moving a proven pitcher “would be unwise” in Jackson’s view, due to Miami’s own concerns about its rotation depth.  The Marlins got a combined -0.6 bWAR from their catchers in 2023, ranking 28th of 30 teams in catcher bWAR.
  • The Nationals have continued to overhaul their front office and minor league staff personnel this week, most prominently parting ways with director of player development De Jon Watson, the Washington Post’s Andrew Golden (X links) reports.  Watson has been the farm director for the last two seasons and a member of the Nationals’ organization since 2017.  Before coming to D.C., Watson was an assistant GM with the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks’ senior VP of baseball operations, among other roles with Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Miami during a long career in scouting and player development roles.  The Nats also made eight changes to their minor league coaching and coordinator ranks, with a particular focus on improving offensive development.

Marlins Keeping An Eye On Catching Market

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The Marlins have been monitoring the market for catching help with the trade deadline now under two months away, per Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. With the team currently sitting seven games above .500 — currently in possession of an NL Wild Card spot and just 3.5 games back of the division-leading Braves — they’re positioned to head into the 2023 deadline as a potential buyer.

Certainly, that stance could change in the coming weeks, depending on whether the team can sustain its hot start to the season. However, even if the Marlins approached the deadline from a seller’s standpoint, finding some long-term help behind the dish could still be a focus. The catcher position has been an area of need in Miami ever since J.T. Realmuto was traded. The team originally hoped that Jorge Alfaro, acquired in that Realmuto swap, could take the reins are the catcher of the future. That didn’t prove true, and a subsequent trade for defensive standout Jacob Stallings has proven similarly unsuccessful.

Stallings, 33, saw his vaunted defensive ratings plummet in his first year with Miami last season. They’ve rebounded to an extent so far in 2023, but the former Pirates backstop has seen his offensive production bottom out at career-worst levels. Stallings is hitting just .161/.238/.226 this season, and since Miami acquired him in the 2021-22 offseason he’s managed only a .210/.281/.278 slash. Paired with his surprisingly below-average defensive grades, the 2021 Gold Glove winner has played at a sub-replacement level since donning a Marlins jersey.

In light of this season’s struggles, Stallings has begun to cede playing time to 26-year-old Nick Fortes. While Fortes isn’t an offensive force himself, his .231/.280/.328 batting line outpaces what Stallings has been able to muster so far in 2023, and Fortes has drawn superior grades for his pitch blocking and pitch framing. Fortes, in fact, leads all big league catchers in Statcast’s new pitch blocking metric. (Stallings has been above-average as well.) Neither catcher has been able to control the running game at all; Fortes has just an 8% caught-stealing rate on the season, while Stallings is only marginally better at 12%. Stolen base success rate is up in general throughout the league with this year’s new rules, but the Fortes/Stallings tandem has allowed the sixth-most steals in MLB (63) and is tied for the fewest runners caught (seven).

Unfortunately for the Marlins — as is often the case, given the scarcity at the position — there doesn’t appear to be a particularly robust catching market on the horizon this summer. Veteran rentals like Yasmani Grandal and Tucker Barnhart (whose two-year deal has a 2024 player option) could become available, but neither is necessarily a major difference maker. Grandal is enjoying a somewhat resurgent .263/.328/.406 performance at the plate, but he’s earning $18.25MM this year and has the worst pop-time of any catcher in baseball (with a 15.5% caught-stealing rate himself). Barnhart hasn’t hit any better than Stallings has.

It’s feasible that some other veterans could hit the market once their respective clubs take a look at top prospects. The Guardians have Bo Naylor largely ready for a big league look but continue dedicating playing time to Mike Zunino. The Pirates have top prospects Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis both in Triple-A, and either could unseat Austin Hedges in the Majors before terribly long. However, neither Hedges nor Zunino would give the Fish a meaningful offensive upgrade.

As far as some potentially more controllable options go, the Marlins could look to some yet-unproven backstops around the league. Ivan Herrera, once the ostensible successor to Yadier Molina in St. Louis, is now blocked by Willson Contreras but remains a top-100 prospect with everyday catching upside. The Giants recently optioned Joey Bart and will continue taking a look at Patrick Bailey as their primary catcher, perhaps setting Bart up for a potential change-of-scenery swap. Of course, learning a new staff on the fly midseason is a challenge, and that’s even more true for a young catcher who’s also trying to establish himself as a viable big leaguer — perhaps even in the midst of a playoff race.

Some Marlins fans might’ve gotten their hopes up for a potential run at Salvador Perez when his name recently popped up in a few rumors, but Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo publicly stated yesterday that he has no intention of trading Perez (who has full veto power over any possible deals anyhow, as a player with 10-and-5 rights). The Mets looked into trades of Tomas Nido before passing him through outright waivers, but he’s another veteran option who’s no guarantee to be an offensive upgrade over the current in-house tandem. The last-place Rockies could speculatively look to sell high on Elias Diaz’s solid start, but he’s a volatile performer on a year-to-year basis and the Rox tend to avoid selling off veterans even in losing seasons.

Miami figures to be just one of several teams poking around a limited catching market. Hopeful contenders in Cleveland, Houston and San Diego have also gotten negligible output from their catchers, and injury troubles elsewhere in the league could create other motivated buyers between now and Aug. 1. There aren’t likely to be too many plausible upgrade options on the market, leaving the Fish and other interested teams to get creative as they aim to address the need.

The Marlins’ Battle For Playing Time Behind The Plate

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This past offseason marked the second straight winter in which the Marlins made a series of moves in hopes of upgrading the lineup. By and large, their set of transactions over the 2021-22 offseason didn’t pan out as hoped. Among those who had a tough first year in South Florida was backstop Jacob Stallings.

Stallings was a late-blooming regular for a couple seasons with the Pirates. He didn’t garner significant MLB playing time until 2019, his age-29 season. Once given the opportunity, Stallings developed into a solid primary catcher. Over a three-year stretch between 2019-21, he hit .251/.331/.374 in a little less than 800 plate appearances. That was a little better than the .233/.308/.399 line compiled by catchers overall. Stallings was a bit below-average from a power perspective but posted stronger on-base numbers than the typical backstop.

He’d paired that respectable offense with elite receiving behind the plate. Public pitch framing metrics loved Stallings’ work. He wasn’t charged with a single passed ball in 892 innings in 2021. While he wasn’t great at controlling the running game, he looked like one of the sport’s top pure receivers.

Considering those two-way contributions, it was understandable the Fish targeted Stallings to solidify their catching situation. The acquisition cost was fairly modest; they relinquished depth starter Zach Thompson and mid-level prospects Kyle Nicolas and Connor Scott for three arbitration seasons of their hopeful #1 catcher. Unfortunately for the Fish, Stallings’ production cratered on both sides of the ball.

The right-handed hitter posted a career-worst .223/.292/.292 line through 384 trips to the plate. His already modest power went backwards. Stallings managed just four home runs and posted his lowest hard contact rate (32%) since becoming a regular. That diminished contact quality also resulted in a .280 batting average on balls in play that was .025 points below the mark he carried between 2019-21. Stallings’ strike zone discipline remained intact; he made contact and continued to generally lay off pitches outside the zone. He just simply didn’t do enough damage on batted balls to make an offensive impact.

That offensive drop-off wouldn’t have been quite so alarming if it hadn’t been paired with a bizarre dip in Stallings’ pitch framing numbers. Statcast graded him as seven runs below average in that regard, his first subpar season after three consecutive years of plus marks. Stallings remarkably posted another flawless year with regards to avoid passed balls but didn’t have his typical level of success stealing strikes on the edges of the zone.

Teams also took more advantage of his middling arm strength than they had in years past. No catcher was behind the plate for more successful stolen bases than Stallings, who saw opponents swipe 61 bags in 75 attempts (an excellent 81.3% success rate). Stolen bases aren’t solely on the catcher — pitchers’ times to the plate plays a significant role — but Statcast rated Stallings’ arm strength below par.

That could take on added importance in 2023. MLB is introducing rules such as the limitation on pickoff attempts and larger bases designed to incentivize base-stealing. Stallings seems unlikely to develop above-average arm strength in his age-33 season. Keeping the running game in check figures to be a challenge yet again, which places a greater emphasis on Stallings to return to peak form in the areas of his game that have historically been his strength.

He’ll need to more closely approximate his offensive production and framing marks from his final couple seasons in Pittsburgh to serve as the caliber of upgrade Miami believed they were getting 12 months ago. To his credit, Stallings had a decent second half offensively after a terrible start to the year, though he’ll need to sustain that over a full season this time around.

General manager Kim Ng and her staff seem bullish on his chances of righting the ship. There was little indication Miami seriously looked outside the organization for catching help this offseason. They avoided arbitration with Stallings, signing him for $3.35MM. He presumably heads into Spring Training atop the depth chart for a second time, though he could face some internal pressure if he starts the season slowly.

26-year-old Nick Fortes has put himself on the radar after a quietly effective rookie season. The Ole Miss product made a 14-game cameo at the tail end of the 2021 campaign. Last season was his first extended MLB action, and Fortes impressed. He hit .230/.304/.392 with nine home runs and a modest 18.8% strikeout rate over 240 trips to the plate. Fortes demonstrated both above-average contact skills and solid batted ball metrics, showing the potential to be an interesting offensive option.

Fortes logged 441 innings behind the plate last season, rating fairly well in the eyes of public defensive metrics. Statcast pegged him as a roughly average pitch framer with above-average arm strength. Fortes threw out 28.6% of base-stealers, a solid clip. After committing four passed balls in just 44 innings in 2021, he was charged with only one passed ball last season. It was a solid all-around showing that earned the former fourth-rounder a near equal split in playing time with Stallings from the All-Star Break onwards. Still, with just 86 career games under his belt, he’ll need to prove he can continue performing over a larger sample.

The duo will continue jostling for playing time this season. Stallings and Fortes are the only two catchers on the 40-man roster, with Miami dealing Payton Henry to Milwaukee at the start of the offseason. Austin Allen is in camp as a non-roster invitee but figures to open the year in Triple-A Jacksonville barring injury. How to allocate playing time behind the dish is one of the bigger questions for first-year manager Skip Schumaker. Stallings figures to get the lion’s share of time early in hopes of a rebound, though it remains to be seen how long the leash would be if he struggles after Fortes’ solid 2022 campaign.

NL East Notes: Stallings, Hassell, Chernoff, Mets

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As the Phillies take a 2-1 lead over the Braves in the NLDS, let’s check out some other news from around the NL East…

  • Jacob Stallings’ offense declined in his first season with the Marlins, and public defensive metrics from Statcast and Fangraphs indicate that his framing and overall defense also dropped off in 2022.  However, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hears that the Marlins didn’t have any interest in moving Stallings earlier this season, though there is a possibility Miami’s feelings may have changed since Goold’s last inquiry.  Nick Fortes played well in part-time action last season, and could be viewed as a candidate for a larger role if the Marlins did indeed move Stallings.
  • Nationals outfield prospect Robert Hassell III underwent surgery to fix a broken hamate bone in his right hand, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo reports.  The Talk Nats blog reported last week that Hassell seemed to suffer the injury on a swing in Arizona Fall League play.  Since hamate surgeries typically take roughly 6-8 weeks of recovery time, the Nats expect Hassell to be ready for the start of Spring Training.  Hassell was one of the key pieces of the six-player package Washington received in the Juan Soto/Josh Bell trade with the Padres, as the outfielder entered the season as a consensus top-40 prospect in baseball.  While he struggled after the trade and the move to the Nats farm system, the 21-year-old is expected to begin the 2023 season at Double-A ball.
  • Guardians GM Mike Chernoff was on the Mets’ radar when they were looking for a new front office leader following the 2020 season, but Chernoff rejected an interview request and still doesn’t seem interested in a move away from Cleveland, as he told the New York Post’s Jon Heyman.  Both Chernoff and Guards president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti reiterated how much they like their current positions, and Antonetti has also frequent turned down other interview requests from rival teams over the years.  With current Mets GM Billy Eppler building a 101-game winner, it would seem a little unusual if the Mets hired another baseball-focused executive as their next team president, and the club might just hire a business-focused executive and leave Eppler in charge of baseball ops.  However, the Mets have been linked to so many notable front office names over the last two years that it can’t be ruled out that owner Steve Cohen might finally land a big target.

Pre-Break Sweep Raises Questions About Marlins’ Deadline Outlook

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With the trade deadline two weeks away, a good portion of the league has a general idea of how they plan to approach things. 16 teams either occupy or are within two games of a playoff spot. Barring a massive losing streak coming out of the All-Star Break, those clubs figure to explore ways to improve the 2022 roster. 11 more teams are six or more games out of the playoff race, and with the exception of the Rangers, they’ve all been outscored by 30+ runs on the year. How aggressively they’ll sell will vary, but there’s little reason for those teams to not at least explore the possibility of dealing some impending free agents.

That leaves three teams in a somewhat nebulous middle ground. The Orioles and White Sox each sit 3 1/2 back in the AL Wild Card standings, while Chicago is three out in the division race. MLBTR examined the Orioles’ deadline dilemma last week, while the White Sox seem likely to stay the course and hope for better second halves from some key players. The final team between two and six games out is the Marlins, whose deadline approach figures to be tied quite heavily to how they perform in the first week out of the break.

Miami was within 2 1/2 games of a playoff spot as recently as last Friday. A weekend sweep at the hands of the Phillies, who moved into a tie for the NL’s third Wild Card spot in the process, dropped the Fish to 43-48 and 5 1/2 out. It was a brutal three games that dealt a real hit in the standings — the club’s playoff probability fell from 7.6% to 2.7% over the weekend, according to FanGraphs’ estimates — but the Marlins will have an opportunity to salvage their postseason hopes before the August 2 trade deadline. Miami kicks off the unofficial second half with a standalone game against Texas before hosting Pittsburgh (three games) and going to Cincinnati (four games). If the Marlins can take six of those eight contests, they’d be back around .500 heading into their pre-deadline series against the NL East-leading Mets. Going 4-4 or even 5-3 over those relatively soft first two series probably wouldn’t be enough to deter general manager Kim Ng and her group from dealing some near-term talent.

Another full teardown seems unlikely. Earlier this month, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote that Miami owner Bruce Sherman didn’t want to orchestrate a deadline sell-off “barring a collapse” from the team. Exactly what constitutes a “collapse” in Sherman’s and Ng’s eyes obviously isn’t clear, but it seems unlikely one sweep would cause Miami to totally reevaluate whether they want to move a controllable star like Pablo López. Yet even if Miami isn’t willing to part with their most valuable trade pieces this summer, they could make a few decent role playing types available.

Who might be attainable if the Marlins do decide to sell?

Garrett Cooper, 1B/DH

Cooper has been frequently mentioned as a trade candidate on MLBTR’s pages over the past couple years. The 31-year-old is a consistently good hitter when healthy, but he’d missed notable time each season from 2018-21. Cooper has avoided the injured list this season (aside from a very brief stint for virus symptoms) and played his way to an All-Star Game for the first time. He owns a .283/.349/.434 line with seven home runs and 21 doubles through 327 plate appearances. Throughout his career, he’s shown a knack for running strong batting averages on balls in play. He makes a lot of hard contact, hits plenty of line drives and generally uses the whole field to hit for gap power, even as he’s never hit more than 15 homers in a season.

Miami has resisted trading Cooper to this point, but he’s down to his final season and a half of club control. He’s only making $2.5MM this year, but that’s likely to jump to the $5MM range for his final season of arbitration eligibility. That’s certainly not onerous but the Marlins annually run a bottom ten payroll and this could be the best chance to recoup decent prospect value while Cooper’s healthy. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this month that the Dodgers could have interest.

Jon Berti, INF/OF

Berti’s a versatile speedster who’s having a career-best season. He’s hitting .271/.365/.375 with a pair of home runs and an excellent 12.2% walk rate across 222 plate appearances. That plate discipline has allowed Berti to reach base quite frequently, and he’s wrecked havoc once there. He has swiped 28 bases on the year, six more than anyone else in MLB despite only playing in around 64% of the team’s games. Berti’s slash-and-dash approach is rare, but he’s making it work and had earned a role at the top of the Miami lineup before going on the 10-day injured list late last week with a mild left groin strain.

The team hasn’t provided a timetable on his return, and perhaps the injury will rule him out as a trade candidate. If it’s minor enough he returns before the deadline and looks no worse for wear as a runner, though, it stands to reason he’ll draw interest from contenders. In addition to his baserunning acumen, he’s started multiple games at each of third base, second base, shortstop, and in left field this year. Miami can control him through 2025, so they don’t have to make a deal even if they move some other players, but he’s already 32 years old and having perhaps a career season. This’ll probably be the apex of his trade value, particularly since this year’s infield market is very thin.

Brian Anderson, 3B/COF

It’s unlikely the Marlins deal both Berti and Anderson, but they may have enough infield depth to feel comfortable parting with one of the two. Miami acquired Joey Wendle from the Rays over the winter, intending to supplant Anderson at third base after he underperformed in 2021. Wendle has been solid when healthy but missed a notable stretch between May and June with hamstring troubles. That afforded Anderson more playing time at the hot corner than anticipated, and he’s bounced back with a solid .262/.358/.393 showing across 193 plate appearances.

Anderson, 29, is controllable through the end of next season via arbitration. He’s already making $4.475MM this year and will earn a bit of a bump during his final season of arb-eligibility. As with Cooper, it’s possible Miami sees this as an opportunity to bring in some young talent while reallocating the projected 2023 salary elsewhere. Anderson is a good player, a well-rounded everyday third baseman. Yet Miami already has Wendle and Berti as options at the position, and they signed Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler to multi-year deals over the winter to plug the corner outfield. It’s a deep collection of corner players that might squeeze Anderson out of the mix.

Elieser Hernández, RHP

Hernández would be more of a change-of-scenery candidate than a solution for a contender. Throughout his big league tenure, he’s shown a strong combination of strikeouts and walks but given up far too many home runs. He’s taken that to a particular extreme in 2022, serving up a staggering 18 longballs in 53 innings (3.06 HR/9). That’s far and away a career-worst mark for a pitcher who was already one of the league’s most homer-prone arms. Unsurprisingly, Hernández has an ERA above 6.00 and lost his spot in the rotation in May.

Perhaps the home run troubles are so pronounced there won’t be much interest. Hernández hasn’t been able to keep the ball in the yard even in one of the game’s more spacious home parks. Still, we’ve seen teams place bets on pitchers like Andrew Heaney and Yusei Kikuchi over the years, valuing strikeout stuff and betting that tweaks to a pitcher’s repertoire and/or simple home run rate regression will even things out. Perhaps some team feels the same way about Hernández and will look to buy-low on a pitcher making just $1.325MM and arb-eligible through 2024.

Anthony Bass/Steven Okert/Dylan Floro, RP

Miami has a handful of capable if unexciting middle relief arms who should draw some attention from contenders. Bass, 34, is a prototypical journeyman but has posted an ERA below 4.00 in each of the past five seasons. He throws in the mid-90s, pounds the strike zone and misses bats at a slightly above-average rate. He’s making $3MM this year and has a matching club option for 2023.

Okert isn’t yet arbitration-eligible, while Floro is making $3MM and arb-eligible for one more season. A former minor league signee, Okert is a 31-year-old southpaw who has posted swinging strike rates north of 13% in each of the last two years. He’s fanned nearly 30% of batters faced as a result, and he’s handled hitters from both sides of the plate. Okert struggles with walks and home runs, but a southpaw who misses bats is always likely to attract some amount of interest. Floro is essentially the polar opposite. The 31-year-old righty doesn’t throw hard or generate many whiffs, but he’s a volume strike-thrower who consistently induces grounders at a strong clip.

Longer shot possibilities

Ng and her staff could also try to find a taker for first baseman Jesús Aguilar, who is set to hit free agency at the end of the year (assuming the team declines its end of a 2023 mutual option). Interest figures to be modest for a defensively-limited player who’s hitting just .252/.299/.401 while making $7.5MM, however. It’s possible they could flip Wendle or catcher Jacob Stallings, but Miami acquired both over the winter to upgrade the lineup. With each controllable for at least another season (and Stallings having a down year), that seems unlikely.

Coming out of the All-Star Break, the team will try to play its way out of any sort of sell-off. They’ll have a stretch of below .500 teams to start off, giving them an opportunity to get back into the playoff periphery. Getting swept heading into the break digs them a significant hole, though, and the Miami front office figures to field a number of calls on their veteran complementary players with dwindling windows of control.

Marlins Win Arbitration Hearing Against Jacob Stallings

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The Marlins won their arbitration hearing against catcher Jacob Stallings, as first reported by the Associated Press. That sets his 2022 salary at the $2.45MM figure submitted by the team rather than at the $3.1MM that Stallings and his representatives.

Acquired in an offseason trade that sent righty Zach Thompson and prospects Kyle Nicolas and Connor Scott to the Pirates, Stallings has had a rough start to his Marlins tenure. The 2021 Gold Glover has always been known more for his defensive prowess than his bat, but this year’s .204/.276/.268 showing through 174 trips to the plate has nevertheless been a disappointment. Over his final three seasons with the Bucs, Stallings posted a .251/.331/.374 batting line that clocked in about about 9-10% worse than the league-average hitter (by measure of wRC+ and OPS+) but was slightly better than that of the average catcher.

More concerning for the Fish, however, is the downturn in Stallings’ vaunted defensive skills. This year’s 17% caught-stealing rate is the worst of his big league career, and Stallings has also turned in below-average marks in pitch framing — an area where he’s previously ranked among the game’s very best. Stallings has been a bit better at the dish since a brutal start to the year, hitting .223/.303/.300 over his past 100 trips to the plate, but even that’s a notable departure from his typical output in Pittsburgh.

Of course, Stallings’ struggles to this point weren’t a factor in his arbitration hearing. Arbitration hearings, even those taking place during the ongoing season due to this winter’s lockout, are determined based solely on prior performance. Hearings such as this would’ve typically taken place in February, after all.

With Stallings’ 2022 salary now set, that’ll be the baseline for subsequent arbitration raises moving forward. This is his second trip through arbitration as a Super Two player, and he’ll remain under Marlins control through the 2024 season. That leaves two more trips through the arb process, though Stallings will likely need to improve his play on both sides of the ball if he’s to remain a prominent part of the team’s plans.

Wrapping up Stallings’ case finally brings the Marlins’ arbitration dealings to a close. Miami avoided a hearing with everyone other than Stallings and righty Pablo Lopez, both of whom the team defeated in arb hearings. The Fish also notably sidestepped a hearing with southpaw Richard Bleier when they agreed to a two-year deal in late March.

At this point, Braves lefty Max Fried and Yankees slugger Aaron Judge are the only two players in Major League Baseball with yet-to-be-resolved arbitration cases. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Fried’s hearing took place yesterday, so a ruling could be made as soon as today. Judge’s hearing is set for Friday, per Heyman.

Examining Boston’s Catching Corps

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From the outside looking in, it would appear that the Red Sox catching situation is fairly well set. After all, they have $9.25MM committed to their incumbent backstop tandem of Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki, each having been brought back on a guaranteed contract. Boston could have easily gotten out of the commitment to either player through the declination of a team option and non-tender, respectively, but their decision to bring the duo back suggests comfort with continuity.

There may be another move yet to make, however, writes Chris Cotillo of Masslive.com. To his point, Boston isn’t committed to either Vazquez or Plawecki beyond 2021. Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernandez could play themselves into the big league picture, but while both are prospects, neither are blue-chippers. To prove the point, Cotillo reiterated that Boston had made a bid for Jacob Stallings before the Pirates dealt their backstop the Marlins.

Any ground-shifting move would have to come via the trade market, as the free agent crop of catchers has already been picked clean of prospective starters, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explored not long ago. Yan Gomes, Manny Pina, Pedro Severino, and Roberto Perez signed with the Cubs, Braves, Brewers, and Pirates, respectively. Even backups Sandy Leon (Guardians) and Andrew Knapp (Reds) found new homes. That leaves veterans Robinson Chirinos, Kurt Suzuki, and Wilson Ramos as the most decorated options remaining, and those three haven’t been above-average starters behind the plate since 2019.

On the trade market, there are a number of teams with flexible catching rooms that might be willing to shake things up in the right deal. The Cubs’ Willson Contreras sounded none too happy about the Gomes signing, and he’s on the final year of his deal. The Yankees would move Gary Sanchez, but they, like the Red Sox, would need to upgrade if they were going to move him. Anyone with a long-term need at catcher should be in contact with the Blue Jays, though Toronto isn’t likely all that eager to send one of their young backstops (Alejandro Kirk, Gabriel Moreno) to a division rival. Reese McGuire might be a realistic target, if not for Boston, then maybe somewhere else where he could shake loose another starting-level masked man.

Looking elsewhere, Carson Kelly of the Diamondbacks brings the right blend of current ability and future team control, and with the Diamondbacks facing an uphill climb in the NL West, the right deal ought to be able to pry him loose. Still, the return there might smart more than Boston is willing to endure, given the high floor of their current group. The goal for Boston would be to raise the ceiling of their production from the catching spot, and while Kelly certainly qualifies in that regard, the value of the add could send Boston to track a different scent.

Another option could be MJ Melendez of the Royals. Salvador Perez is the past, present, and future of catching in Kansas City, and the Royals might figure to use Melendez’s trade value rather than let him grow into a part-time role.

Sean Murphy is the big fish on the trade market, and the A’s powerful catcher would indeed raise the ceiling in Boston while providing long-term stability. The Gold Glove catcher is under team control through 2025. Murphy, like everyone on Oakland’s roster, is available, but the question will come down to price point and valuation of the prospects in Boston’s system.

There are other options that the Red Sox could explore (Cotillo suggests the Padres as a trade partner, for example), but at the end of the day, it seems most likely they will enter 2022 as they ended 2021, with Vazquez and Plawecki sharing catching duties while Hernandez and Wong await their turn. Combined, Vazquez and Plawecki posted 1.2 rWAR/1.0 fWAR in 2021, and with both catchers entering their age-31 season, there’s not much upside to mine (though catchers do tend to develop late). Still, if Boston likes the way they handle the pitching staff, that might be enough to keep this group in place for next season. Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom and GM Brian O’Halloran are going to continue to explore ways to raise the roof on the potential of their catching production, but an incremental rise in potential output probably doesn’t blow their hats off enough to push them from the incumbent duo.

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