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Jose Abreu

Jose Abreu Reportedly Weighing Multi-Year Offer From White Sox

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Jose Abreu and the White Sox have been in talks about a long-term deal, and there’s still a chance such a pact could be reached before today’s 4pm CT qualifying offer deadline.  As per 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine (Twitter link), Abreu is deciding between accepting the one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer or inking a new three-year contract with Chicago.

Abreu has made no secret of his desire to remain with the White Sox, and there has also been quite a bit of mutual interest on the team’s side as well, with GM Rick Hahn often praising Abreu’s importance as a clubhouse leader, not to mention his strong performance on the field.  That performance, however, has taken a step backwards in 2018-19 — Abreu hit .301/.359/.524 over his first four seasons in the big leagues, though only .275/.328/.490 in 1246 plate appearances over the last two seasons.

Between this semi-decline and the fact that Abreu turns 33 in January, a three-year pact would be quite a healthy amount of security, especially given the diminished state of the first base/DH market in recent years.  Daniel Murphy’s two-year deal with the Rockies last winter was the only multi-year contract given to a player projected to spend a lot of time at first base (it should be noted that DJ LeMahieu ended up playing a lot of first base for the Yankees, though LeMahieu also only signed a two-year deal).  In fact, even a three-year commitment is a rarity no matter the position, as only 14 players total signed a free agent deal of three or more years last winter.

The Marlins are known to have interest in Abreu already, and other teams like the Brewers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Nationals, or Twins could also be in need of first base help.  But those clubs would all be required to surrender a draft pick (or two in Boston’s case, for surpassing the luxury tax threshold) and some international bonus pool money to sign Abreu if he turned down the qualifying offer and signed elsewhere.  The QO could therefore potentially be a draft on his market, as it has been for such sluggers as Kendrys Morales and Nelson Cruz in recent years.

Of course, it’s safe to assume that Chicago’s three-year offer has an average annual value of much less than $17.8MM per year.  Abreu could lock in a bigger single-season payday by accepting the qualifying offer now, and then he could potentially test free agency again next winter unencumbered since player are only eligible to receive one QO.  Accepting the qualifying offer now also wouldn’t prevent Abreu and his representatives from continuing to negotiate with the White Sox on a longer-term deal throughout the offseason.

Marlins Interested In Jose Abreu

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The Marlins aren’t known for free-agent splashes, though they could add least make a notable short-term move(s) this winter, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.. The Marlins are interested in first baseman Jose Abreu, according to Heyman, who adds they could also try to improve their outfield via the open market.

It has long appeared unlikely that Abreu would leave the White Sox, with whom he’s a franchise icon. But while the two sides have discussed a long-term contract, no deal has come to fruition yet. The soon-to-be 33-year-old Abreu has until Thursday to decide whether to accept the White Sox’s $17.8MM qualifying offer. Of course, the fact that Abreu has a QO hanging over him arguably makes it even less likely for a contract to come together with the Marlins. After all, the Marlins probably won’t contend over the one or two years they would presumably give to Abreu. Furthermore, adding him would cost the Marlins a significant amount of money (MLBTR projects a two-year, $28MM guarantee) and their third-highest draft pick in 2020.

There is an argument it would be illogical for the Marlins to splurge, at least by their standards, on Abreu. On the other hand, he’d give the club a credible bat at first base and enable the Fish to move Garrett Cooper to the outfield. Abreu’s a four-time 30-home run hitter coming off a season in which he slashed .284/.330/.503 with 33 HRs across 693 plate appearances. He’s also a revered veteran clubhouse presence, which could appeal to a Miami team with plenty of young players, and the fact that he hails from nearby Cuba may somewhat enliven the Marlins’ alienated fan base.

Co-owner Derek Jeter has said the Marlins need to get more fans in the seats after drawing the fewest in the majors in 2019. Signing Abreu (or another quality hitter, whether it’s someone like local product Nicholas Castellanos or ex-Marlin Marcell Ozuna) may help them accomplish that.

Which Pick(s) Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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We looked already at the possible draft compensation that teams might recoup from losing players who decline qualifying offers. Now, we’ll take a glance at the topic from the other side of the coin: what it’ll cost other teams to sign such players.

Last week, 10 players received qualifying offers. Teams interested in signing Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Odorizzi, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Will Smith will therefore be required to forfeit draft and perhaps international bonus considerations in order to sign anyone from that bunch — assuming each of the 10 rejects that one-year, $17.8MM sum. Here’s a breakdown of the specific penalties that all 30 teams would face in signing a “qualified” free agent:

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs

If any of these three teams signs a qualified free agent, they will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in next summer’s draft. They’d all also see $1MM docked from their 2020-21 international bonus pools. The Red Sox, in particular, seem more intent on shedding payroll and lowering their luxury hit than on adding a high-end free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would mean then surrendering their third- and sixth-highest selections as well as an additional $1MM in international funds.

Revenue Sharing Recipients:  Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax during the 2019 season. As such, they’d forfeit “only” their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft by signing a qualified free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would require forfeiting their fourth-highest pick. A third would mean their fifth-highest pick (and so on). Revenue-sharing recipients who do not cross the luxury threshold face the smallest penalty in signing a qualified free agent.

All Other Clubs: Nationals, White Sox, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays

These 12 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K upon signing a qualified free agent. At 67-95, the Blue Jays had the worst record among this group, meaning it’d be most costly (in terms of amateur talent acquisition capital) for them to sign a qualified free agent. However, GM Ross Atkins has said since the season ended that such concerns won’t deter the Jays from pursuing qualified free agents.

For teams in this group, signing a second qualified free agent would mean punting next year’s third-highest selection and an additional $500K. A third would mean parting with the fourth-highest pick and another $500K (and so on).

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While those penalties surely count for something, it’s worth reminding that they’re also not as steep as some clubs like to portray. Each team’s top overall selection is protected, and the highest draft choice that’d theoretically be forfeited would be the Cardinals’ Competitive Balance (Round A) selection, which would come in after the first round and after all of the compensatory picks for these free-agent losses. Competitive Balance Round A in 2019 spanned pick Nos. 35-41, and the slot value of those selections ranged from $2.1MM (No. 35) to $1.81MM (No. 41).

With 10 QOs this year, that compensatory round will be longer. Most teams with a Competitive Balance draft pick next season (barring trades of those picks, which are the only draft choices eligible to be traded) will fall into the “revenue sharing recipient” bucket, meaning their Round A picks would be protected. If the Cardinals pass on a qualified free agent, then the Jays and their second-round pick (likely in the mid-40s) would face the largest potential penalty.

White Sox, Jose Abreu Have Discussed Long-Term Contract

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The White Sox have one particularly notable free agent in first baseman/designated hitter Jose Abreu, who has never looked all that likely to leave the club. Both sides have said time and again that they would like to continue their partnership, and the White Sox protected against Abreu’s exit somewhat by giving him a qualifying offer earlier this week. With that in mind, the Nov. 14 deadline to accept the QO may be moot in the case of Abreu, with whom the White Sox have discussed a long-term contract, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports.

In Abreu’s case, “long term” could be relatively short. After all, he’s a soon-to-be 33-year-old whom MLBTR has re-signing with the White Sox on a two-year, $28MM deal. Even that total looks somewhat generous for a non-elite hitter who brings little to no defensive value to the table. Just last winter, DH Nelson Cruz settled for a one-year, $14.3MM guarantee with the Twins after a somewhat more impressive season than the one Abreu just had. Cruz was then fresh off a .256/.342/.509 season with 37 home runs, whereas Abreu hit .284/.330/.503 with 33 HRs this year.

Despite Abreu’s ab0ve-average contributions at the plate, the White Sox ranked 18th in the majors in wRC+ and 24th in runs this season. They’re clearly a team in need of offensive help if they’re finally going to return to relevance in 2020, so retaining Abreu for a reasonable sum would make sense. Keeping Abreu would at least enable the White Sox to cancel out one potential need area and move on to other business.

10 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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It appears that ten players have received qualifying offers this year. Bob Nightengale of USA Today rounds up the full slate of players on Twitter, some of whom were already reported and covered on this site.

This year’s qualifying offer value is $17.8MM for a one-year term. Players issued the offer will have ten days to assess their options. Should a player reject the offer and fail to work out a deal with their existing team, he will enter the market carrying the requirement that a signing team sacrifice draft compensation. (While the former team would not stand to lose a pick, it would not gain a compensatory pick if it re-signs that player.) Click here for a full rundown of the QO rules.

This represents a bounce back up in the number of players to receive a qualifying offer. Last year was a record-low of seven, with other offseasons ranging from nine (2012, 2017) all the way up to twenty offers (2015).

Here are the ten players:

There are a few notable players that were eligible for the QO but did not receive it. Those players will hit the open market free and clear of draft compensation. Didi Gregorius of the Yankees and Cole Hamels of the Cubs were perhaps the leading possibilities beyond those that received the offer. J.D. Martinez would surely have received one from the Red Sox had he opted out of his deal; Aroldis Chapman was also certain to get a QO had he not agreed to a new contract. Quite a few other prominent free agents were ineligible because they were traded during the 2019 season and/or had previously received a qualifying offer.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jose Abreu

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It isn’t uncommon for any free agent and team to profess some level of mutual interest as the player approaches the open market.  Still, given the amount of connection between the White Sox and Jose Abreu, it still seems a bit surprising that the first baseman is still slated for free agency here in late October rather than already locked up to a new contract extension.

GM Rick Hahn said back in May that “it’s certainly very likely that [Abreu will] be here” once the Sox emerge from their rebuilding phase.  Abreu himself has expressed his desire to remain on the South Side on multiple occasions, and even said in August that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf had unofficially promised to keep him in the organization.  So, while the two sides didn’t discuss an extension during the season, it still wouldn’t be a shocker to see Abreu and the Sox reach a new deal while the club still has exclusive negotiating rights (Abreu won’t file for free agency until five days after the end of the World Series).

That said, the lack of known movement towards a new contract could be some due diligence on the team’s part, as they weigh the pros and cons of re-signing a player who will turn 33 in January, and has only been pretty good rather than great over the last two seasons.

After Abreu’s first four MLB seasons resulted in a .301/.359/.524 slash line and 124 homers in 2660 plate appearances, the slugger’s production took a step backwards in 2018 and 2019.  Injuries played a role in Abreu’s relative struggles in 2018, though it’s worth noting that his 2019 wRC+ (117) was only a touch higher than his 2018 production (115 wRC+).

Abreu’s 40.7% hard-hit ball rate in 2019 was the highest of his career, and he finished in the 94th percentile of all hitters in exit velocity.  He also ranked in at least the top 18 percent of hitters in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, and had a career-best 12.8% barrel percentage.

On the down side, Abreu has only a .328 on-base percentage over the last two seasons, and his 21.9% strikeout rate was the highest of his career.  He has never been much of a baserunner, limiting his ability to beat out grounders despite the fact that opposing teams rarely deploy a shift against him.  However, opposing pitchers have been feeding Abreu an increasingly large number of sliders over the last two seasons, with increasing success — Abreu had only an 89 wRC+ against sliders in 2018 and a 66 wRC+ against the pitch this year.

Beyond the Statcast numbers, there’s also the simpler lefty/righty split, as the right-handed hitting Abreu has been increasingly less-effective against right-handed pitching.  2019 marked the first time that Abreu was a below-average 99 wRC+) run producer against righties, dropping down from an also so-so 107 wRC+ in 2018.

There are enough question marks here for interested suitors to be wary of signing Abreu to a pricey multi-year pact in free agency.  Despite the fact that Abreu looks like the clear best option (unless the Cubs inexplicably cut Anthony Rizzo free) in a relatively thin market of free agent first basemen, teams have shown that they are increasingly unwilling to pay big money for anything less than an elite production from the first base/DH positions.

Plus, the White Sox hold some significant leverage on Abreu’s market in the form of the qualifying offer.  If Abreu was to reject Chicago’s one-year/$17.8MM offer, a new team would have to give up a draft pick in order to sign him, which could give even more clubs pause.  Issuing the QO results in three potential scenarios, two of which are good for the White Sox — either the draft pick compensation depresses Abreu’s market to the point that they can re-sign him at more of a club-friendly price, or perhaps Abreu simply accepts the qualifying offer and the Sox retain a player they like but not at a multi-year commitment.

The third scenario, of course, would be that the Sox recoup a draft pick via the QO but Abreu signs elsewhere, which would be no small loss given Abreu’s mentorship role on a young White Sox team.  As Hahn himself said, “It’s sort of that more touchy-feely, emotional side of things in terms of knowing the value that he has in this clubhouse and the leadership skills, the softer benefits that he brings to the club, that affects your valuation of a guy like that.”  Perhaps moreso than most teams, the White Sox are a bit more old-school in their approach, and thus are more prone to go out of their way to keep a player who continues the Frank Thomas/Paul Konerko tradition of a franchise cornerstone first baseman, especially as the team looks to finally get back into contention in the AL Central.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Quick Hits: Goold, Abreu, Kapler

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For those who believe that baseball heroes only reside between the lines of play, this writer might humbly direct your attention to a particular member of the St. Louis press box. Derrick Goold, a longtime writer for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch who covers the Cardinals, was the subject of a piece from colleague Rick Hummel today after Goold came to the rescue of a 64-year-old man at Busch Stadium on Sunday. Mike Flanary, a St. Louis-based videographer, collapsed in the Cubs dugout and was briefly without a pulse before Goold rushed to his aid and administered life-saving CPR. Flanary was brought to a nearby hospital, where he was treated for the effects of a heart attack and stroke; he remained in critical-but-stable condition on Sunday evening.

“In the medical field, when you save somebody like this, they call it a clinical save,” said Washington University’s David Tan, who was the stadium doctor on duty at Busch on Sunday. “This is a clinical save that was started by Derrick Goold. Period.”

In far more trivial news from around the game…

  • Much has been said about Jose Abreu’s ongoing flirtation with White Sox management about his potential return to the Chicago dugout in 2020–we understand by now that both team and player are interested in a reunion, although Abreu’s contract is up this offseason. For what it’s worth, the player’s teammates were unequivocal on Sunday in their advocation for an Abreu return, as detailed in a piece from James Fegan of The Athletic. “It doesn’t make sense for him to not be a White Sox,” pitcher Lucas Giolito said. “He’s an example for us and I think he’s the guy,” outfielder Eloy Jimenez opined. “I don’t see his skill set right now diminishing in any way, shape or form,” manager Rick Renteria offered. Opinions will vary on what kind of deal Abreu–who posted a 115 wRC+ in 690 plate appearances this year–should elicit, but those around the South Side clubhouse clearly believe he’s an integral part of the team’s next step toward contention.
  • Posts were aplenty on the job status of Phillies manager Gabe Kapler on Sunday, which should come as little surprise, considering that Kapler has been beleaguered with near uniformity by fans and press alike in his second season as Philadelphia’s manager. In comments made to Scott Lauber the Philadelphia Inquirer after Sunday’s game, it seemed that Kapler, for one, had had enough speculation for one season (link). “It’s definitely not a conversation I need to have right now in this room,” Kapler said to reporters about forthcoming conversations with Philly management. “It’s a private conversation. My job is to focus on managing the Phillies even after Game 162.” If Kapler is indeed removed as skipper in the City of Brotherly Love, he will finish his tenure with a 161-162 managerial record.

AL Central Notes: Abreu, Duffy, Burrows, Perez

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As the “Rally Squirrel” becomes the latest hero of the Twins’ season, here are some items from around the AL Central…

  • There have been multiple indications that a new contract between the White Sox and impending free agent Jose Abreu seems inevitable, and the first baseman gave another today, telling Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf has all but officially promised a new deal.  “Jerry several times has told me and my family that I am not going to wear a jersey other than a White Sox jersey,” Abreu said via a translator.  “I believe him. I believe in his word. And like I said, I’m very happy with and loyal to this organization. Hopefully everything is going to pan out.”  The veteran slugger is still an above-average bat, though his 109 wRC+ (from a .273/.313/.496 slash line over 536 PA heading into today’s action) represents the lowest mark of Abreu’s six MLB seasons.
  • Danny Duffy “felt good” after tossing a 65-pitch simulated game on Tuesday, the Royals southpaw told Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star and other reporters.  Depending on how Duffy feels today, K.C. could activate him from the injured list or potentially get him into another sim game before he returns to the active roster.  Since Duffy noted that he only started jogging on Monday and “probably the most I’ve ran was at 80 percent,” he and the team could decide to wait a bit longer before an activation.  Duffy’s IL placement retroactively dates back to August 4, as the veteran left-hander is recovering from a left hamstring strain.
  • Tigers right-hander Beau Burrows is recovering from a left oblique strain and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.  As Chris McCosky of the Detroit News writes, the injury concludes what has been a trying season for the pitching prospect, as Burrows also dealt with a shoulder issue at the start of the year and posted a 5.51 ERA over 65 1/3 innings at Triple-A.  Like many minor league hurlers this season, Burrows has had trouble keeping the ball in the park, surrendering 12 homers over those 65 1/3 frames.  Burrows, the 22nd overall pick of the 2015 draft, received some top-100 prospect attention from Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com prior to the 2018 season, but his stock dropped after only a decent year at Double-A.  It all adds up to a tricky offseason decision for the Tigers, who now have to choose whether or not to add Burrows to the 40-man roster in order to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.  Detroit has multiple prospects that are Rule 5-eligible and only a certain amount of open space, leading McCosky to wonder if they would still protect Burrows if his future (as some in the organization believe) is ultimately as a relief arm.
  • Burrows isn’t the only question mark within the Tigers’ crop of young hurlers, as Franklin Perez is still trying to get on track from the shoulder problems that have essentially cost him two seasons, Lynn Henning of the Detroit News writes.  Once seen as the centerpiece of the trade package the Tigers received for Justin Verlander two years ago, Perez was a consensus top-100 prospect heading into the 2018 season, and MLB.com still had him 78th on its top 100 list prior to this season.  Since the start of the 2018 campaign, however, Perez has tossed just 27 total innings amidst multiple trips to the injured list.  Adding to the frustration, Henning writes, is the fact that doctors have been unable to find any underlying structural issue that would explain the pain Perez has felt in game action.  Perez doesn’t turn 22 until December, though it remains to be seen when (or even if) he’ll be able to pitch on a consistent basis, let alone effectively enough to get him back on a path to the big leagues.

Central Notes: Abreu, Gordon, Bader, Brusdar

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Although the White Sox and first baseman Jose Abreu have made their affinity for one another known on many occasions, the club reportedly won’t offer the pending free agent a contract extension this season. Nevertheless, Abreu once again made it clear Monday his mission is to re-sign with the White Sox, as Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times relays. Asked if he’s confident a new deal will come together, Abreu declared: “Of course. Like I said before, if the team doesn’t sign me, I’m going to sign myself here.” Chicago’s on its way to its 11th straight season without a playoff berth, and the club has never even finished .500 since Abreu joined the fray entering 2014. But the 32-year-old explained to Van Schouwen the team’s capable of contending as early as 2020, expressing confidence that “the front office is going to make the move that will be the right move for us to move forward and to get to that final phase of this process.”

  • As with Chicago and Abreu, there’s a great deal of fondness between the Royals and outfielder Alex Gordon. General manager Dayton Moore stated back in June he “couldn’t imagine” Gordon playing anywhere else. The soon-to-be 36-year-old took a similar tone over the weekend, telling Matt Ehalt of Yahoo Sports it’s KC or bust in 2020. “I’m not going to play anywhere else,” Gordon said. “If I play, it’s going to be for the Royals.” If Gordon does continue next season, he and the Royals will have to work out a new arrangement, as the team’s sure to decline its half of a $23MM mutual option in favor of a $4MM buyout.
  • The Cardinals will recall center fielder Harrison Bader from Triple-A Memphis on Tuesday and option outfielder Randy Arozarena, per Stu Durando and Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Manager Mike Shildt noted the Cardinals are “super proud” of Bader for the way he handled himself in the wake of his July 29 demotion. Bader had been a staple in St. Louis’ lineup for most of the year until the club sent him down, but he’s coming back as a result of a dominant offensive showing in the minors. Meanwhile, fellow Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill could start a rehab assignment with Memphis later in the week, according to Durando and Hummel. O’Neill has been on the IL since Aug. 3 with a left wrist strain.
  • High-end Twins pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol leveled up over the weekend, moving from Double-A Pensacola to Triple-A Rochester. The 20-year-old right-hander is now on the doorstep of the majors, but that doesn’t mean he’ll get there this season, GM Thad Levine told Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. On the subject of a possible late-2019 major league call-up for Graterol, Levine said: “That idea may have been a little overstated. We’re not going to force anything. We would only promote someone if we thought he could genuinely contribute, [and that decision] has certainly not been made.” Graterol’s capable of pumping triple-digit heat, which ideally will help make him a prominent piece of the Twins’ bullpen into the fall.

Jose Abreu Reportedly Won’t Receive In-Season Extension Offer

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The White Sox aren’t planning to offer pending free-agent first baseman/designated hitter Jose Abreu a contract extension this season, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports. However, the club and Abreu have long been open about their desire to stay together past this year, so it’s possible an agreement will occur over the winter.

Abreu is on the verge of wrapping up the six-year, $68MM contract he signed out of Cuba in October 2013. Believe it or not, that still ranks as the richest deal the White Sox have ever distributed. Abreu, now 32 years old, has more than lived up to the pact. He owns a .290/.346/.510 major league batting line with 168 home runs and 19.4 bWAR/16.3 fWAR across 3,660 plate appearances. Not only has Abreu’s aggregate production been tremendous, but he has emerged as a revered clubhouse presence during his five-plus seasons on the South Side of Chicago.

General manager Rick Hahn acknowledged Abreu’s behind-the-scenes importance last month, saying, “It’s sort of that more touchy-feely, emotional side of things in terms of knowing the value that he has in this clubhouse and the leadership skills, the softer benefits that he brings to the club, that affects your valuation of a guy like that.”

Of course, the fact that the White Sox hold Abreu the person in high esteem doesn’t guarantee they’ll keep the player. The club has been amid a rebuild for a large portion of Abreu’s tenure, but if it wants to make a legitimate run at contending in 2020, it could try to upgrade over him. His lifetime 130 wRC+ suggests doing so would be difficult, though Abreu’s output has been declining since 2018. His wRC+ through 451 PA this season sits at a career-worst 98, which has only outdone three qualified first basemen (possible Hall of Famers Joey Votto, Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, mind you).

Although Abreu has continued to hit for power (22 homers, .209 ISO), his perennially meager walk rate has fallen to a personal-low 4.4 percent. Abreu has struck out in nearly 24 percent of plate appearances at the same time, helping leave him with a less-than-stellar .261/.297/.469 slash.

On the other side of the coin, Abreu has been a Statcast darling this year. His .351 expected weighted on-base average crushes his real wOBA of .322 and ranks in the majors’ 71st percentile. He also sits in the league’s 70th percentile or better in expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Unless Abreu’s actual production starts trending toward his Statcast figures over the next two months, it seems highly doubtful the three-time All-Star will match or exceed his current $16MM salary in 2020. As things stand, he doesn’t look like a great candidate for a qualifying offer, which was valued at a pricey $17.9MM last offseason.

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