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Julio Teheran

East Notes: Red Sox Outfield, Phillies, Syndergaard, Teheran

By Jeff Todd | June 23, 2016 at 11:10pm CDT

Red Sox outfielder Chris Young hit the DL with a hamstring injury, as Chris Mason of the Boston Herald writes. He joins Brock Holt and Blake Swihart as unavailable left field options for Boston, which already had ample justification to pursue an upgrade at the position. There’s some optimism for both of those players, at least, as Holt has begun a rehab assignment and Swihart is out of his walking boot.

Here’s more from the eastern divisions:

  • The Red Sox are stretched thin in left even as Rusney Castillo looks less and less like a viable major leaguer. Rob Bradford of WEEI.com takes an interesting look at the process that led the team to sign him to a contract that now seems like an expensive miss.
  • Phillies GM Matt Klentak says that the “feeling out process” has begun for summer trade activity, as Corey Seidman of CSNPhilly.com reports. Still, he suggests that it’s largely been quiet for Philly thus far. Klentak also discussed the progress of top prospect J.P. Crawford, explaining that some early struggles at Triple-A are just part of the maturation process and noting that he has continued to exhibit a mastery of the strike zone.
  • The Mets appear to believe that Noah Syndergaard’s valuable right elbow isn’t at risk despite a recent scare, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports. An MRI showed only inflammation, and manager Terry Collins noted that Syndergaard has dealth with minor flare-ups at times in the past without any real structural issue arising. He’s set to make his next scheduled start.
  • Over at Fangraphs, Eno Sarris explores an important question for the Braves as well as potential suitors for righty Julio Teheran: just how good is he? He suggests that Teheran may be able to continue to outperform ERA estimators somewhat, though perhaps some movement toward those marks is to be expected. In the end, Sarris calls him “a good pitcher on a great contract,” which seems like a fair appraisal.
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Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies Blake Swihart Brock Holt Chris Young J.P. Crawford Julio Teheran Noah Syndergaard Rusney Castillo

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Heyman’s Latest: Teheran, Ventura, CarGo, Lucroy, Myers, Turner

By Steve Adams | June 16, 2016 at 6:42pm CDT

Writing at todaysknuckleball.com, Jon Heyman breaks down the woes of the Dodgers and Angels. Both teams face difficult decisions over the summer. The Dodgers, at least, still seem positioned to contend and could play an interesting role on the trade market.

Here are more notes from the column:

  • Amidst the considerable amount of Julio Teheran chatter, one Braves source tells Heyman, “I don’t see the Braves trading Teheran.” That’s a less-definitive statement than the one Heyman received regarding Freddie Freeman, as a source told him the first baseman is “totally off limits,” which lines up with GM John Coppolella’s offseason comments. Heyman adds that the Braves have “tried to dangle” Erick Aybar in trade talks, but he has no value at this point and could simply end up being released, creating an opportunity for one of Atlanta’s top-tier shortstop prospects (Dansby Swanson and Ozhaino Albies).
  • Robin Ventura is on the hot seat with the White Sox, Heyman writes (adding more detail here). A team source tells him that there’s a feeling that “patience has been shown” and a change could benefit the team. Bench coach Rick Renteria, who formerly managed the Cubs, could succeed Ventura. Not that it’s particularly surprising, but Heyman adds that former skipper Ozzie Guillen wouldn’t be a candidate to return to his old post.
  • The Rockies haven’t yet started receiving calls asking about Carlos Gonzalez, but they’re expected to listen to offers despite hovering around .500 to this point of the season. GM Jeff Bridich tells Heyman that his current focus is on winning and adds that prized righty Jeff Hoffman, who headlined the prospects acquired in last July’s Troy Tulowitzki blockbuster, is “closer than he is far away.”
  • While Jonathan Lucroy is perhaps the most-cited trade candidate in baseball, GM David Stearns tells Heyman that an extension can’t be entirely ruled out. Heyman notes that if the Brewers are able to move Ryan Braun, they could look to reallocate some of those funds to locking up Lucroy, who is more open to an extension now that the Brewers are performing better than most pundits expected. There could, of course, be some level of gamesmanship there, as it would make sense for any team official to downplay a prime trade target’s availability.
  • The Padres are “open” to trading Wil Myers in the right scenario, says Heyman, but it still seems unlikely that’ll come to fruition. San Diego has received hits on Jon Jay and Derek Norris, though, and presumably the organization is more willing to part with those players.
  • There was talk of the Tigers pursuing Chris Davis over the winter, and Heyman says that was indeed the case. The club was considering an offer in the $180MM range for the slugger, per the report. Owner Mike Ilitch also pushed for Yoenis Cespedes over Justin Upton, but the club elected to grab the younger player. That choice is certainly up for debate after their respective starts.
  • The Phillies are obvious sellers, but most of their marketable assets reside on the pitching side of the equation. But the club sees infielder Andres Blanco as a plausible piece, with Freddy Galvis also potentially on the block. Blanco isn’t quite repeating his surprising 2015 season, but is hitting at around the league average rate and could be a useful utility piece.
  • With continued uncertainty surrounding Felix Hernandez, the Mariners are likely to explore the rotation market this summer. The club has received a nice boost from James Paxton of late, but many of its starters have long-term injury questions so it isn’t surprising to hear that the club is readying for an addition in that area.
  • Heyman also floats the idea that the Nationals could dangle top position player prospect Trea Turner in trade talks this summer. He wonders whether he could be the chip that lands a top-end reliever, citing Yankees hurler Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. From my perspective, that would be rather surprising: Turner has shown himself ready for a full crack at the big leagues and is widely considered one of the game’s twenty best prospects. Even if the Nats don’t make him the starter in 2016, he’s a critical part of the team’s middle infield depth right now and an important future piece.
  • Veteran outfielder Shane Victorino has rejected several opportunities to join teams on minor-league deals, says Heyman. Victorino is holding out for a shot to join a big league roster.
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Atlanta Braves Chicago White Sox Colorado Rockies Detroit Tigers Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres Seattle Mariners Washington Nationals Andres Blanco Carlos Gonzalez Chris Davis Derek Norris Erick Aybar Jeff Hoffman Jon Jay Jonathan Lucroy Julio Teheran Justin Upton Rick Renteria Robin Ventura Ryan Braun Shane Victorino Trea Turner Troy Tulowitzki Wil Myers Yoenis Cespedes

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Cafardo’s Latest: Brewers, Teheran, Kemp, Hudson

By Connor Byrne | June 12, 2016 at 4:45pm CDT

In regards to Brewers left fielder Ryan Braun’s potential availability this summer, one American League executive told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, “That’s the name I’m waiting for.” Braun is in the first season of a five-year, $105MM extension, and both the money he’s owed and his PED history are roadblocks standing in the way of a possible deal, reports Cafardo. The writer adds that the quality of return in a hypothetical Braun trade will come down to how much of his contract Milwaukee eats. The 32-year-old has dealt with injuries this season, but he has still slashed an outstanding .316/.378/.541 with 11 home runs through 217 plate appearances.

More from the Boston-area insider:

  • The fact that one of Braun’s teammates, Jonathan Lucroy, is still on the Brewers surprises some baseball executives. One National League exec thinks rebuilding Milwaukee has an unrealistic asking price for Lucroy. Nevertheless, the 29-year-old has made his case for a major return by serving as perhaps the majors’ best catcher this season; plus, he has a cheap club option for 2017 ($5.25MM).
  • Opinions are split within the Braves organization as to whether they should trade 25-year-old right-hander Julio Teheran or build around him. The Braves have fielded inquiries on Teheran, but it would cost a significant haul to acquire him, notes Cafardo. In 82 innings this year, Teheran has recorded an excellent ERA (2.85) and put up strong strikeout and walk rates of 8.45 and 2.52, respectively. He’s also controllable through 2020 on an eminently reasonable contract.
  • In not-so-shocking news, the Padres are hoping to move struggling outfielder Matt Kemp, a major league source told Cafardo. However, given Kemp’s contract (he’ll make $21.5MM per year through 2019) and lack of production, it’s going to be difficult to find a taker. With his combination of subpar defense and disappointing offense, the former MVP candidate has been among the majors’ least valuable players this year.
  • Reliever Daniel Hudson, a pending free agent, could be a hot commodity around the trade deadline if the Diamondbacks decide to sell. The right-handed flame-thrower has tossed 24 2/3 innings this year and logged a 1.82 ERA, 8.03 K/9 and 2.19 BB/9, also inducing ground balls 49.2 percent of the time.
  • Free agent outfielder Shane Victorino is still looking for a new team, his agent, John Boggs, told Cafardo. Victorino has been available since the Cubs released him May 23. The 35-year-old was a replacement-level player in 71 games last season, batting a weak .230/.308/.292 in 204 combined PAs with the Red Sox and Angels, so he might continue to have difficulty finding work.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers San Diego Padres Daniel Hudson Jonathan Lucroy Julio Teheran Matt Kemp Ryan Braun Shane Victorino

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MLBTR Roundtable: Trading Julio Teheran

By Steve Adams | June 10, 2016 at 6:34pm CDT

Earlier today, I laid out a high-level overview of the cases both for and against the Braves trading Julio Teheran. While there are certainly some gray areas in making a decision — every player, no matter how good, becomes tradeable once the value received in exchange reaches a certain point — we’ve asked the entire staff at MLBTR to offer its thoughts on whether the Braves should be open to making a move or should hang onto their best starting pitcher.

You can read the above-linked post for more info on the 25-year-old righty. Or, skip right ahead to the opinions of the MLBTR team:

Tim Dierkes: As the saying goes, “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.”  Teheran has been in the Braves’ organization for nearly a decade, and they know him better than anyone.  It was that familiarity that led them to sign him to a deal guaranteeing $32.4MM back in 2014, a fairly aggressive extension for a pitcher with less than two years of Major League service time.  Research from Matt Swartz has shown that it is hard to avoid lemons when signing away free agent pitchers from other teams.  The Braves may have good money to spend this winter in advance of their new stadium opening, but in addition to the issue of the “Other People’s Players” premium Swartz discovered, the free agent market for starting pitching looks historically bad.  Even with Teheran, the Braves will need to add significant starting pitching if they hope to contend in 2017. Verdict: Retain him.

Steve Adams: There’s virtually no scenario in which trading Teheran makes the Braves better in 2016, and they’d be hard-pressed to find a deal that makes them definitively better in 2017 — the year in which they supposedly aim to contend in a new stadium. The Braves have stocked their farm with pitching depth, but Teheran is their best pitcher in the Majors right now, and his $32.4MM contract has enough surplus value that the asking price could (and should) reasonably rival the Shelby Miller haul. A return of that magnitude strikes me as extremely unlikely, and given the backlash they’ve had from fans in John Coppolella’s first season as general manager, moving the team’s clear top starter for more young pieces wouldn’t sit well with their audience. Verdict: Retain him.

Jeff Todd: As things stand, Teheran has had great results in three of his four full seasons in the majors. He’s young, he racks up innings, and he has an appealing contract. On the other hand, he doesn’t have elite swinging strike rates, isn’t much of a groundball pitcher, and has always outperformed ERA estimators — yes, even in 2015 — which have recently viewed him as a ~4.00 (and change) performer. In large part, then, his value is dependent upon whether one believes that’s sustainable. He’s still a nice piece regardless, and at worst he provides Atlanta with a sturdy mid-rotation piece as it exposes its top prospects to the majors, but I’m actually in favor of looking to sell while the gettin’ is good. Teheran’s value is up, especially with a mediocre set of fellow trade targets and a seemingly barren free agent starter crop coming this winter, and frankly I’m not bullish on Atlanta’s 2017 outlook. Too many things need to go right, and the lackluster overall free agent class may not be conducive to building out a competitive roster for a reasonable price. PR considerations aside, a deal that includes at least a high-quality, advanced position-player prospect makes sense to me, even if a truly premium youngster can’t be had. Verdict: Shop him.

Mark Polishuk: The Braves’ long-stated plan was to return to contention when their new ballpark opens in April 2017.  While that timeline may have been pushed back a bit thanks to their terrible record this season, the organization obviously still wants to be competitive sooner rather than later.  Even if they wait until 2018 to make a push, that’s still well within the life of Teheran’s contract and the prime of his career.  If I’m the Braves, I hang onto Teheran now (barring a Godfather offer from another team, of course) since I’d find myself looking for a Teheran-type of pitcher within a year or two anyway. Verdict: Retain him.

Charlie Wilmoth: Not to straddle the fence, but I think the Braves should strongly consider trading Teheran but keep him if they don’t get a return they like. A rebuilding team should consider trading any veteran starter in the midst of a good year. You never know when a pitcher might lose velocity, get hurt, or decline for other reasons, so keeping Teheran to pitch for a bad team is risky asset management. Teheran and Shelby Miller are different types of pitchers, but Miller’s case demonstrates that principle. Even leaving aside the terrific return the Braves wouldn’t have received if they hadn’t dealt Miller, how bad would it have been for Atlanta if the Braves had kept him and then he had a 2016 season like the one he’s having now with the Diamondbacks? On the other hand, Teheran is only 25 and is under control and cheap through 2020, so he could easily be part of the next good Braves team. Add in that the Braves would surely like to play well next season for the opening of their new ballpark, and there are compelling reasons to keep Teheran around. I’d try to deal him, but if the offers are underwhelming, holding on is reasonable too. Verdict: Hung jury!

Connor Byrne: The crop of starters who are expected to be available prior to the trade deadline looks mostly unappealing, as does the upcoming class of free agents, so the rebuilding Braves should at least shop Teheran. The next several months could serve as the perfect time frame for the Braves to get more for Teheran than he’s worth. If they put Teheran on the block and don’t get a palatable enough offer, then keeping him wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. With his team-friendly contract, Teheran won’t have to perform like much more than a back-end starter to provide value over the next few years, meaning the Braves won’t be in a negative position if they retain him. However, by no means should John Coppolella be so intent on acquiring a young, established major league hitter in return for Teheran that he summarily spurns other offers. Teheran’s only a year removed from a 4.00 ERA season with a below-average 2.34 K/BB ratio. We’re not talking about a Jose Fernandez-esque superstar here; rather, Teheran’s contract and durability are arguably the two best things he has going for him. The Braves shouldn’t need to be “overwhelmed” to trade him, then, even though Coppolella said otherwise last month. Verdict: Shop him.

That’s where we stand, but we’ll also open this one up to our readers with a poll (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users):

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Atlanta Braves MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Julio Teheran

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The Cases For And Against A Julio Teheran Trade

By Steve Adams | June 10, 2016 at 8:55am CDT

We’re firing up another new series here at MLBTR in which we’ll take one oft-discussed topic each week and present the high-level cases both for and against the move in question. Following that, we’ll present a roundtable of opinions from the MLBTR staff in a separate post and ask our reader base to weigh in on the matter with a poll.

With the Braves in full rebuild mode and their stated willingness to listen to offers for anyone not named Freddie Freeman,  it’s only natural that Julio Teheran’s name has come up frequently early in the summer. Last week, MLBTR’s Connor Byrne examined the difficulties in identifying a trade partner that had both the need to add Teheran and the ability to part with the MLB-ready types of young talent which Atlanta is said to covet in a theoretical deal.

Teheran is off to an incredible start to his 2016 season, having pitched to a 2.85 ERA with 8.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 42.5 percent ground-ball rate in 82 innings out of the Atlanta rotation. He also looks to be well on his way to a third straight season of 200+ innings in just his age-25 season. He’s benefited from some good fortune in terms of BABIP (.228) and strand rate (83 percent), but Teheran has posted a BABIP lower than the league average throughout his career and also posted strand rates that are above the league norm, so while some regression can be expected, it probably shouldn’t be assumed that those numbers will trend all the way back to the league averages.

We’re a good seven and a half weeks away from this year’s non-waiver trade deadline, and Teheran is pitching brilliantly for a last-place club in the midst of a rebuild, expect to hear his name floated with some degree of regularity between now and Aug. 1. However, does the very fact that he’s an appealing asset on a rebuilding club mean that Teheran should be traded? Let’s look at both sides of the coin.

The case for trading Julio Teheran

The case for the Braves to trade any player on their big league roster always starts at the same place: they’re a team that wasn’t good in 2015 and has been significantly worse in 2016. Atlanta is currently on a course for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft, and they’ll be among the few teams that are definitive sellers leading up to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trading deadline. The Braves will probably field calls on any and all pieces that could help a contending club, and Teheran, as noted above, more than fits that bill.

Julio Teheran

Given his strong start to the season, his highly affordable contract and the utter dearth of impact arms not only on the summer trade market but also on the upcoming free-agent market, there’s a chance that the Braves could coerce a team into parting with a potentially exorbitant package of young talent to pry Teheran from their hands. Atlanta reached that nexus of frenzied demand and willingness to surrender elite talent in the offseason’s Shelby Miller blockbuster, and there’s a case to be made that Teheran could, or at least should, be worth more. The D-backs, after all, were acquiring three years of Miller at arbitration prices, whereas a team dealing for Teheran would be taking on the remainder of this season’s salary ($2.06MM as of this writing) and three more years at $26.3MM. That’s three and a half years of Teheran for roughly $28.14MM plus a club option for $12MM in 2020 — his age-29 season. Last summer, the Rangers surrendered a package of Jerad Eickhoff, Jake Thompson, Jorge Alfaro, Nick Williams and Alec Asher in the Cole Hamels/Jake Diekman trade. Teheran’s entire contract is worth barely more than a season of Hamels, financially speaking.

Moving Teheran this summer could net the Braves an MLB-ready asset (as Eickhoff gave the Phillies or as Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair gave the Braves in the Miller deal) as well as multiple high-ceiling, top 100 range prospects. The 2016 product is bad, and moving Teheran right now could net them two or more pieces that would help in 2017, when more of their vaunted farm system is at the Major League level.

The case against trading Julio Teheran

On the flip side, the Braves are aiming to contend in 2017, and Teheran helps them tremendously in that vein. Matt Wisler’s solid start to the season aside, Teheran is the Braves’ best pitcher. He misses more bats, generates more grounders and has displayed better control over the course of his career than Wisler has in his. Trading Teheran almost certainly makes the Braves a worse team in 2016, and there’s a very real chance that doing so would make them worse in 2017 as well. Acquiring MLB-ready assets is always a plus, but prospects aren’t guaranteed, no matter how highly regarded they may be. Teheran is performing well in the Majors right now and has done so since 2013, posting a cumulative 3.30 ERA in 689 1/3 innings.

The contract, as mentioned above, gives the Braves the best years of a pitcher that may not be a definitive ace but can clearly pitch near the top of a Major League rotation at an exceptionally affordable rate. Teheran is in his fourth season of big league service and would’ve been arbitration-eligible for the second time this coming winter. He’s earning salaries of $3.3MM, $6.3MM and $8MM for his arbitration seasons and can be controlled for just $23MM total for his first two would-be free-agent seasons. His arb years are cheaper than the likes of Wade Miley and Lance Lynn, and Teheran’s free-agent seasons are priced somewhere in the range of 50 to 75 percent of what they’d command on the open market (as is the case with most pre-arbitration extensions). There’s an enormous amount of value to the Braves themselves in that deal.

Beyond the on-field and financial reasons for keeping Teheran, the Braves have been aggressively working to fight the notion that they’re “tanking” in order to continue to build up the farm through the draft. General manager John Coppolella has repeatedly stressed that his hope for the 2016 season was an improvement over 2015’s record and strides toward a competitive product in 2017 — the opening season of the Braves’ new stadium, Sun Trust Park. Trading away their best pitcher for even more young, controllable pieces would only further fuel the tanking narrative, even if the return brought the potential for multiple contributors to the 2016-17 roster. The Braves would also face continued backlash from a fanbase that has been particularly vocal about its thoughts on the current rebuild, and while fan reaction shouldn’t be the deciding factor in a move, it’s certainly something of which the Braves’ brass must be mindful as it approaches the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Atlanta Braves MLBTR Originals Julio Teheran

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Cafardo’s Latest: RPs, Bautista, Teheran, Shields, Ausmus

By Connor Byrne | June 5, 2016 at 10:24am CDT

This summer’s trade market will favor relief pitchers, not starters, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. While the pool of starters who are expected to be available looks shallow and largely unappealing, the opposite is true in regards to bullpen options. Cafardo points to Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, Arodys Vizcaino, Jeremy Jeffress, Jeanmar Gomez, Sean Doolittle and Will Smith, among many others, as relievers who could be on the move in the next couple months.

Here’s more from Cafardo:

  • The 30-27 Blue Jays are in the thick of the playoff race, but if they fall out of it, right fielder Jose Bautista and first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion (both pending free agents) are prime trade candidates. The Cardinals, Cubs and Hunter Pence-less Giants would all have interest in Bautista, according to Cafardo.
  • The Red Sox and Braves would match up well in a potential trade involving right-hander Julio Teheran, per Cafardo, who notes that Boston’s package would have to be headlined by outfield prospect Andrew Benintendi, infield prospect Yoan Moncada, third baseman Travis Shaw or catcher/left fielder Blake Swihart. Of that group, the Red Sox would prefer to give up Swihart, though Cafardo doubts he alone would be enough of a return for Teheran.
  • Before the Padres traded righty James Shields to the White Sox on Saturday, the Red Sox, Orioles, Tigers and Dodgers expressed interest in acquiring the 34-year-old. Shields’ final start with the Padres – in which he allowed 10 earned runs, eight hits and four walks in 2 2/3 innings on Tuesday – served as a deterrent to some clubs, though, reports Cafardo.
  • The 27-28 Tigers aren’t considering replacing third-year manager Brad Ausmus as of now, relays Cafardo. However, given that he’s in a contract year, Ausmus could be managing for his job.
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Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Detroit Tigers Los Angeles Dodgers San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Toronto Blue Jays Andrew Benintendi Blake Swihart Brad Ausmus Edwin Encarnacion James Shields Jose Bautista Julio Teheran Travis Shaw Yoan Moncada

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Looking For A Match In A Julio Teheran Trade

By Connor Byrne | June 3, 2016 at 10:55pm CDT

The Braves entered the season amid a full rebuild, so it’s hardly a surprise that they’ve shown a willingness to ship away veterans during their National League-worst 16-37 start. Two months into the season, Atlanta has already moved a pair of right-handers, starter Jhoulys Chacin and reliever Jason Grilli, for younger players. The club is understandably less eager to trade its premier major league asset, fellow righty Julio Teheran, as general manager John Coppolella has stated multiple times since last weekend.

On the possibility of dealing the 25-year-old Teheran, Coppolella told FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, “The days of us trading players like Teheran for prospects are over. We need to get better at the major league level. We would have to be overwhelmed to move Teheran.”

Coppollela then informed Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball that he expects Teheran to remain with the Braves for “a long time.”

Teheran is indeed slated to stay in Atlanta for the foreseeable future, having agreed to a pact in 2014 that could keep him there through the 2020 season. That team-friendly contract is undoubtedly a significant part of Teheran’s allure to the Braves and the rest of the league. Teheran’s run prevention (3.37 ERA in 701 2/3 innings) and durability (three straight 30-start seasons) only add to his appeal. Skeptics would point to his less shiny ERA estimators (3.88 FIP, 3.94 xFIP and 3.86 SIERA), mediocre 2015 campaign, this year’s velocity drop and the fact that he has been prone to hard contact as reasons for concern, however.

Julio Teheran

From a contractual standpoint, Teheran is currently on a relatively meager $3.3MM salary and has a chance to rake in another $37.3MM, including a $12MM club option, over the final four years of his deal. Teheran, therefore, doesn’t need to be particularly dominant to live up to the contract. Thanks to his strong start this season (68 1/3 innings with a 2.77 ERA, 8.17 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9), FanGraphs already values Teheran’s 2016 contributions at $8.4MM. And thanks to both Teheran’s first two months and the weak-looking class of upcoming free agent starters, now might be an opportune time for the Braves to at least consider moving him.

In order for the Braves to actually sell Teheran, Coppolella told Rosenthal he would need a major league hitter of comparable age and quality in return. The problem, if you want to call it that, is such a trade could be a pipe dream for Atlanta. For one, pitchers are more susceptible to injuries than position players, so teams might not be willing to take the risk. Secondly, contending clubs with their eyes on Teheran would be creating a hole just to patch another if they were to swap a hitter for him.

The Red Sox, Dodgers, Tigers and Marlins are among playoff hopefuls who could explore the summer market for starters, and their similar-to-Teheran position players include third baseman Travis Shaw, outfielder Yasiel Puig, third bagger Nick Castellanos and center fielder Marcell Ozuna. It’s doubtful, however, that any of them will be on the move.

Shaw has done nothing but produce since debuting in the majors last season, and he appears primed to man the hot corner in Boston until at least the beginning of the distant Rafael Devers era. Puig has unexpectedly performed like merely an average player since last season, but the Dodgers still seem to need him more than they need another starter. Castellanos has been one of the majors’ top hitters this year, and the Tigers don’t have a replacement for him at the big league level – nor do they have imminent help coming from their farm system. Ozuna has not only been the Marlins’ most valuable outfielder this year (no small feat with Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich alongside him), but he’s also their best defensive option in center.

The Red Sox were willing to move 24-year-old catcher/outfielder Blake Swihart for a No. 2-type starter as of last month, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported, but Swihart alone isn’t definitively worth Teheran. The Braves were at least enamored of Cubs outfielder Jorge Soler in the past, Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote in October, though Chicago subsequently added John Lackey in free agency. With Lackey complementing Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel, the Cubs have arguably the most well-rounded rotation in the league from one to five (though they’re still reportedly seeking depth). Further, they probably aren’t keen on the idea of parting with outfield depth in the wake of Kyle Schwarber’s season-ending injury. There’s also the fact that Soler has underwhelmed since bursting on the scene in 2014 with a fantastic 24-game showing.

With no clear fit mentioned above, it’s fair to wonder what the prospect cutoff is for the John Hart- and Coppolella-led Braves. Would the team really scoff at sending Teheran to, say, the pitching-needy Rangers in a package for one of their excellent 22-year-old prospects, power-hitting, cannon-armed third baseman Joey Gallo or outfielder Lewis Brinson? The Pirates also have rotation issues — granted, they have in-house reinforcements on the way in Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow and perhaps Chad Kuhl — and their stellar outfield trio of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco looks primed to block the big league path of 21-year-old Austin Meadows. Even if the Braves were receptive to sending away Teheran in a package for any of those players, there’s obviously no guarantee the youngsters’ current organizations would be open to it. All three entered the season among Baseball America’s top 25 prospects, after all (Gallo 10th, Brinson 16th and Meadows 22nd), to cite one reputable outlet’s list.

If it truly takes an overwhelming haul for Atlanta to deal Teheran, then it’s fair to expect he won’t follow Shelby Miller out of town. The Diamondbacks drew almost universal criticism from the moment they traded Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair for Miller during the winter, and that deal has so far blown up in Arizona’s face. The Braves are highly unlikely to net a comparable package for Teheran – nor will it be easy to land an accomplished, in-his-prime big league hitter in return – so he’s a good bet to continue in Atlanta if Coppolella’s public statements are how he actually feels. Of course, given Teheran’s age, performance and contract, the Braves’ backs aren’t against the wall in this case. Barring injury, simply keeping him wouldn’t qualify as a disastrous decision, and Coppolella appears content to do just that.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Heyman’s Latest: Harper/Machado, Braves, Shields, Odor

By Steve Adams | June 2, 2016 at 6:28pm CDT

Bryce Harper of the Nationals and Manny Machado of the Orioles are young, controlled superstars who look like highly appealing extension targets. Of course, that also makes them incredibly expensive potential candidates for their respective teams, as Jon Heyman explains at todaysknuckleball.com. According to Heyman, there’s some suggestion that it could take more than $500MM over an unprecedented term to keep Harper from heading to the open market after the 2018 season. “We have not to this point had any substantive negotiations about a long-term deal,” Nats GM Mike Rizzo said with regard to Harper. Rizzo did suggest that the team has serious interest in doing so, however. “They know what our intentions are,” he said. “My intention is always to get him on a long-term deal that will make him a National for life. At a very young age he performed admirably, not only admirably, but the year he had was historic. It’s going to be a unique deal. We have a very unique player.” 

As for Machado, he might not be far behind in value if the O’s hope to reach a deal. Intriguingly, the report suggests that Baltimore very nearly agreed to a seven-year contract with its best player at some point in recent years. That would have certainly proved a bargain given Machado’s increasingly outstanding performance, though the terms of the prospective pact are not known. (Neither is it clear what caused negotiations to fall apart.)

Here’s more from Heyman:

  • “A few teams” have checked in with the Braves on Nick Markakis, Heyman writes, but his recent skid at the plate hasn’t helped out his trade value much. Kelly Johnson, too, could become available, though Heyman adds that GM John Coppolella said of Julio Teheran that he expects the right-hander “to be on the team a long time.” From my vantage point, Markakis doesn’t have much value at $11MM per season and with apparently evaporated power. Even if the Braves were to pay down half of his remaining salary through the 2018 season, he hasn’t been productive enough to bring in a meaningful prospect return.
  • The Orioles talked to the Padres about James Shields in Spring Training but weren’t willing to cover even half of the salary owed to Shields at the time. Shields has two years and $44MM remaining on his contract following the 2016 season (if he doesn’t opt out), and he’s earning $21MM this season as well. Shields has grabbed headlines recently, having been prominently featured in trade rumors over the weekend and then suffering a 10-run meltdown earlier this week, which the team’s executive chairman publicly referred to as “an embarrassment.”
  • The Red Sox, too, have considered Shields but are waiting to see how Eduardo Rodriguez performs upon returning from the disabled list (so far, so good). The White Sox, meanwhile, would want the Padres to pay down a significant portion of the $57MM that remains on Shields’ contract (again, barring an opt out). Heyman writes that a source indicated that shortstop prospect Tim Anderson wouldn’t be involved in talks, though that doesn’t strike me as a surprising revelation; even with half of his contract paid down, that would seem like an overpay on Chicago’s behalf. On a somewhat similar vein, Heyman adds that the Padres approached the Tigers about Shields, but Detroit had no interest in parting with any of Michael Fulmer, Daniel Norris or Matt Boyd in a potential deal.
  • Shortly after the Rockies acquired Jose Reyes, the Yankees were willing to part with shortstop prospect Jorge Mateo and pay half of the $22MM that is owed to Reyes annually through the 2017 season, Heyman hears.
  • The jobs of Tigers manager Brad Ausmus and Twins manager Paul Molitor are safe, Heyman writes, though he adds that Detroit GM Al Avila has privately told Ausmus to stop discussing his job security (or lack thereof) with the media, as the situation doesn’t need any extra fuel.
  • Greg Holland could take the mound in August, per Heyman, and he may wait until that point before deciding on a team. Both the Royals and Braves have shown interest to this point, he adds.
  • The Athletics “may be a favorite” for Cuban second baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez, writes Heyman, who also notes that incumbent second baseman Jed Lowrie could help a number of clubs on the trade market. The Padres, too, are said to be considering Fernandez, he adds.
  • Rougned Odor’s agent and Rangers GM Jon Daniels recently rekindled extension talks, and Heyman notes that the team heaped praise onto Odor during his appeal hearing during which his suspension for punching Jose Bautista was dropped from eight games to seven games. His suspension has also given Jurickson Profar a chance to play, and Heyman writes that the former top prospect could be a trade candidate now that he’s healthy. Sticking with the Rangers, Heyman adds that the Phillies lobbied hard for Texas to include Nomar Mazara in last year’s Cole Hamels blockbuster, but Daniels refused to give him up.
  • The Nationals talked with the D-backs in the offseason about Gio Gonzalez, but Arizona wouldn’t part with Ender Inciarte or David Peralta in the prospective trade. Heyman writes that the Nats spoke to a few teams about Gonzalez, including the Marlins. However, Miami wasn’t keen on surrendering Christian Yelich.
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Rosenthal’s Latest: Machado, Teheran, Hill, Pomeranz

By Connor Byrne | May 28, 2016 at 6:58pm CDT

Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper might not be the only $400MM free agent if he reaches the open market in 2018, says FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (video link), who reports that Orioles third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado could also exceed that total. Machado is a more valuable defender at third than Harper is in right, argues Rosenthal, and is just three months older than Harper (both will be 26 in 2018). Machado, who has slashed a videogamelike .323/.397/.634 with 13 home runs in 209 plate appearances this year, has outhit Harper (.243/.423/.537, 12 homers in 201 PAs) and leads all major leaguers in fWAR (3.4).

Here’s more inside info from Rosenthal:

  • The Braves will only trade right-hander Julio Teheran if they can get a major league hitter of similar quality and age in return, general manager John Coppolella told Rosenthal. “The days of us trading players like Teheran for prospects are over. We need to get better at the major league level. We would have to be overwhelmed to move Teheran,” Coppolella said. Teheran, 25, is off to a strong start this year (2.57 ERA, 8.43 K/9, 2.43 BB/9 in 63 innings) and is signed to a reasonable contract through 2020.
  • Although left-hander Rich Hill looks like an attractive trade candidate, the Athletics could elect to keep the 36-year-old and extend him a qualifying offer at season’s end if nobody makes a satisfactory offer for him. The A’s would then either retain Hill for at least another season at $15.8MM – a significant increase from his current salary of $6MM – or lose him in free agency and receive a first-round pick as compensation.
  • Teams are contacting the Padres about southpaw Drew Pomeranz, per Rosenthal, who adds that GM A.J. Preller “remains open-minded” to the idea of moving any of his players. Acquired from the A’s for a pittance during the offseason, Pomeranz has somewhat quietly been terrific this season. With a stingy 1.70 ERA, the 27-year-old is behind only Clayton Kershaw and he ranks 12th among qualified starters in strikeouts per nine innings (10.19), though his lofty 4.25 BB/9 is 10th from the bottom. Pomeranz is currently on a cheap salary of $1.35MM and has two arbitration-eligible years remaining.
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Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Oakland Athletics San Diego Padres Drew Pomeranz Julio Teheran Manny Machado Rich Hill

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Cafardo’s Latest: Reddick, Lovullo, Teheran, Swihart, Ellsbury

By Mark Polishuk | May 8, 2016 at 9:23pm CDT

We’ve already checked in with the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo once today, with his report that the White Sox and Angels could both be looking to acquire one of several notable outfielders before this summer’s trade deadline.  Here’s some more from Cafardo’s weekly Sunday notes piece and a separate column…

  • Josh Reddick is another addition to the list of left-handed hitting outfielders who could be targeted by the White Sox, or perhaps even the Cubs given Reddick’s past history with Theo Epstein.  Reddick will be a free agent this winter and there doesn’t appear to be much progress between he and the Athletics on an extension.  The A’s are 14-18 after today’s loss in Baltimore and Reddick stands out as a big trade candidate should Oakland continue to lag behind in the AL West race.
  • If the Braves decide to make a change at manager, Cafardo suggests that Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo would be a good fit for the rebuilding club due to Lovullo’s experience in dealing with younger players.  Lovullo posted a winning record while serving as Boston’s interim manager last year and received quite a bit of credit for helping end 2015 on a positive note after the disastrous first few months of the Sox season.
  • Many scouts and front offices feel Julio Teheran will be made available before the trade deadline.  The Braves had some talks with the Giants and Cubs about Teheran last winter, and the 25-year-old righty has likely elevated his value with a good start to his season after he struggled in the first half of 2015.
  • One AL general manager thinks the Red Sox would be willing to include Blake Swihart in a trade package for “a No. 2 type pitcher.”  Though Swihart has struggled defensively behind the plate and has been demoted to Triple-A, the former top prospect still has a lot of trade value.  Swihart’s hitting potential makes him a bigger trade target than fellow Boston catcher Christian Vazquez for most teams, as Vazquez is a much better defender but is a question mark at the plate.
  • It has become clear that the Red Sox made the right choice in choosing Jackie Bradley Jr. over Jacoby Ellsbury, Cafardo opines.  Bradley is starting to show signs that he can be a consistent big league hitter and he’s always displayed an outstanding glove, while Ellsbury has battled injuries and declining performance since signing a seven-year/$153MM deal with the Yankees in the 2013-14 offseason.
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