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MacKenzie Gore

MacKenzie Gore Tentatively Slated For September Return

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Padres left-hander MacKenzie Gore was placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday due to inflammation in his throwing elbow, and as a result he “won’t throw…for a couple of weeks,” manager Bob Melvin told Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune and other reporters.  “Structurally, everything looked pretty good in there compared to the past.  Low-grade strain, and I think we caught a break as far as that goes.”

However, it is also possible we’ve seen the last of Gore in 2022, as Acee hears from two sources that the Padres could shut Gore down entirely, rather than risk more serious injury by bringing him back too early.  Melvin acknowledged the uncertainty of Gore’s status, saying “I don’t know what the reality is as far as him pitching….If everything went smoothly, there’s a chance he could show up at some point in time in September.”

Though Gore has been considered one of baseball’s best pitching prospects basically ever since the Padres drafted him third overall in 2017, questions began to surface when Gore ran into some major mechanics issues in 2020, necessitating a big overhaul and a trip back down the minor league ladder in 2021.  He got back on track enough to make his MLB debut this season, with Gore posting a 4.50 ERA and 23.3% strikeout rate over 70 innings, starting 13 of 16 games.

The Statcast numbers weren’t too favorable to Gore’s work, as his walk and hard-contact rates were among the league’s worst.  Much of that damage came over his last seven outings — Gore has an 11.05 ERA in his last 22 innings, as opposed to a sterling 1.50 mark in his first 48 frames of work.  Due to both his recent struggles and as a way of conserving his innings, Gore had been working out of the bullpen for his last two appearances, without much success.

With this in mind, it wasn’t clear how big of a role Gore would have for the Padres down the stretch, though losing part of their pitching depth entirely to the IL obviously isn’t an ideal situation.  San Diego can only hope that Gore recovers well and is able to make it back and put himself in the conversation for the postseason roster.

On paper, San Diego has more depth than most teams, as the Padres were operating with a six-man rotation for a good chunk of the season, and Nick Martinez could possibly be stretched back out as a starter.  But, with Gore a question mark, it is also easy to see why the Padres have been linked to starting pitching in deadline rumors, with San Diego reportedly checking in on such names as Frankie Montas, Shohei Ohtani, and (before he was traded to the Mariners) Luis Castillo.

Padres Notes: Gore, Tatis, Pomeranz, Suarez

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The Padres placed left-hander MacKenzie Gore on the 15-day injured list this afternoon, announcing he’s dealing with elbow inflammation. Righty Dinelson Lamet has been recalled from Triple-A El Paso to take his spot on the active roster.

San Diego received a scare when Gore departed last night’s outing due to elbow soreness. The prized young hurler told reporters today he feels alright, but the club won’t know much about his long-term status until he heads for further testing (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). In any event, at least a brief IL stint seemed an inevitability after yesterday’s premature exit, even if just as a precaution.

Gore made his major league debut earlier in the year and has had a generally impressive rookie season. The 23-year-old posted a 4.27 ERA through 13 starts, but he’s kicked to the bullpen recently as the club keeps an eye on his innings. He’ll now miss at least the next two weeks, opening up a spot for Lamet. The right-hander has been tagged for 13 runs in 10 2/3 innings of relief this season, bouncing between San Diego and El Paso on options and recalls. The Friars sought a trade partner for Lamet — who’s making $4.775MM — earlier in the year, and it stands to reason the front office will continue trying to move him before next Tuesday’s deadline.

While the Gore news is certainly worrisome for the Friars, they have gotten positive updates on a few other players. The most notable is that star shortstop Fernando Tatís Jr. progressed to taking live batting practice this afternoon (video provided by Dennis Lin of the Athletic). It’s the latest notable step in the recovery for Tatís, who has missed the entire season due to a fracture in his wrist. The timetable for his return to major league action is still uncertain, but he’s on track to impact the club’s hopeful playoff push at some point down the stretch.

That’s also true of a pair of potential high-leverage relievers. Left-hander Drew Pomeranz, who has been out for almost a full calendar year after undergoing surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon, has been throwing to hitters of late. Manager Bob Melvin indicated he could soon head out on a minor league rehab assignment (as relayed by Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Meanwhile, offseason signee Robert Suarez is embarking on a rehab stint of his own today, per Acee. The hard-throwing righty has been on the shelf since June 7 due to a right knee issue, but it seems he’s on track to return around when first eligible early next month.

NL Notes: Castillo, Moose, Solano, Matz, Longoria, Padres

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Luis Castillo is drawing loads of attention as the trade deadline nears, and according to Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds’ focus seems to be on getting young talent for Castillo rather than using him as an avenue to cut payroll.  The idea of having a rival team take on Mike Moustakas’ contract as part of a Castillo deal hasn’t come up in recent negotiations, Nightengale writes, though the Reds were open to such a concept in other talks last year.  However, as Cincinnati has moved some salaries off the books in subsequent deals, payroll cuts no longer seem to be as big a priority.

Castillo isn’t the only trade chip on the roster, as the Reds put “a high asking price” on infielder Donovan Solano in recent talks with an unknown club.  Solano has hit an impressive .313/.371/.450 in 89 plate appearances this season, trying to make up for lost time after a hamstring injury delayed his 2022 debut until June 22.  Cincinnati inked Solano to a one-year, $4.5MM deal in March, so he would be a pure rental for any club looking to add a versatile infielder and veteran right-handed bat to the mix.

More from around the National League…

  • After two months on the injured list due to a shoulder impingement, Steven Matz’s return to the Cardinals rotation was cut short by a left knee strain.  Manager Oliver Marmol told reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) that Matz will undergo an MRI tomorrow.  The left-hander was pitching well before suffering the injury in the sixth inning, as he came up limping after stumbling while trying to field a grounder.  The Cardinals have off-days on Monday and Thursday, so the team has some flexibility in maneuvering its rotation until a decision is made about Matz’s status.
  • Evan Longoria looks to be headed back to the 10-day injured list, as the Giants veteran left tonight’s game due to a right hamstring strain.  The severity of the strain isn’t yet known, but it will mark the third IL stint of the year for Longoria — he has been limited to 49 games due to finger surgery and a left oblique strain.  Tommy La Stella and Brandon Crawford are also on San Francisco’s injured list, leaving the team shorter on infielders if Longoria indeed has to miss more time.
  • The Padres have used a six-man rotation since the start of May, but manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that after one turn through a five-man rotation over the last week, the club will again use five starts for at least the next week.  Nick Martinez seems to have settled into a bullpen role over the last month while pitching some high-leverage innings, while MacKenzie Gore will also continue to be used out of the pen in order to help manage his innings.  Gore has a combined 73 2/3 innings in the majors and minors this season, already above the 50 1/3 frames he pitched across four different minor league levels in 2021.  Of course, San Diego’s pitching plans could possibly be impacted by injuries, trades, or other developments, but this rotation depth has been a major reason for the Padres’ success this year.

Padres Activate Blake Snell From Injured List

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TODAY: As expected, Snell was activated from the IL.  To create roster space, the Padres also announced that left-hander Ray Kerr was optioned to Triple-A.

MAY 16: The Padres have been without lefty Blake Snell all season due to an adductor strain, but the 2018 AL Cy Young winner is set to make his 2022 debut on Wednesday, acting manager Ryan Christenson told reporters yesterday (Twitter link via Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune). San Diego will roll out Mike Clevinger, Snell and Yu Darvish this Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Snell’s return will temporarily push young lefty MacKenzie Gore into the bullpen, though it seems that’ll simply amount to skipping his turn in the rotation just once before he’s considered for another start. The Friars are lined up for a daunting stretch of 40 games in 42 days, Acee points out.

Snell’s return ought to provide a boost to a San Diego staff that’s already been among the better units in the game. Padres starters are tied with the Twins for the game’s ninth-best ERA at 3.50, which is a dead-on match for their seventh-ranked 3.50 FIP. They’re also fourth in MLB with a 25% strikeout rate and have been a respectable, albeit middle-of-the-pack group in terms of walk rate, ranking 15th with a 7.8% mark.

Snell’s first season in San Diego didn’t go as hoped. The now-29-year-old southpaw turned in a 4.20 ERA over the life of 128 2/3 innings and also had a couple of stints on the injured list — including a late-September stay for the same adductor issue that plagued him earlier this year.

However, while Snell’s composite numbers may not stand out, the lefty was back to his Cy Young-caliber form down the stretch in 2021. Snell scrapped his once-dominant changeup — which had been getting hammered last year — on Aug. 3 and ramped up his usage of sliders and four-seamers. The result was a dominant 1.83 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate with a solid 8.5% walk rate — all marks that dwarfed his numbers through the end of July (5.44 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, 14.3% walk rate). If that’s the version of Snell the Padres welcome back this week, an already-strong rotation could develop into a powerhouse.

A short-term shift to the ’pen for Gore may frustrate some fans after the former No. 3 overall pick has debuted with a 2.42 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate through his first 26 innings, but it ostensibly appears to be little more than workload management. Gore pitched just 50 1/3 innings of actual game activity last year, struggling to the point that the Padres sent him to their Spring Training facility in mid-June to sort out his mechanics. He was out of games until the middle of August, when he returned to the Padres’ Rookie-ball affiliate and then worked his way back up to Double-A.

There’s been no issue for Gore thus far in 2022. Once lauded as the game’s top pitching prospect, the 23-year-old has made good on that billing both in Triple-A (five shutout innings, seven strikeouts, no walks) and in the Majors (2.42 ERA, 28-to-9 K/BB ratio in 26 frames). The Padres could take some steps to occasional measures such as this one to prevent too stark an innings increase, but so long as Gore continues to pitch with this level of effectiveness, it’ll be hard to keep him out of the rotation.

San Diego has been deploying a six-man rotation thus far, with Joe Musgrove, Darvish, Sean Manaea, Gore, Clevinger and offseason acquisition Nick Martinez all starting games. Acee tweeted last week that the team “tentatively” planned to continue a six-man rotation following the return of Snell, who’d effectively push Martinez to the bullpen.

That’s notable in and of itself, as Martinez signed a surprising four-year, $25.5MM contract with the Padres this winter on the heels of an outstanding run in Japan. The former Rangers righty not only landed that unexpected guarantee but secured opt-out clauses after each year of the contract. That essentially allows him to become a free agent if he’s able to approximate his NPB excellence in MLB but gives him a hearty sum on which to fall back if he struggles in his return to North American ball. Martinez tossed 378 2/3 innings of 3.02 ERA ball in three seasons overseas, including a dominant 1.60 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate in 140 innings with the SoftBank Hawks last year.

So far in 2022, however, Martinez has had his share of tough outings. He’s pitched 30 2/3 innings with a respectable 4.40 ERA, but his 11.5% walk rate and 1.76 HR/9 mark are both well worse than the league average. He’s posted solid strikeout and ground-ball rates (23.1% and 46.4%, respectively), but he’ll need to curb the free passes and the long balls if he’s to fully establish himself.

Even if Martinez is bullpen-bound for the time being, that shouldn’t be expected to close the book on him as a starter. The Padres made a notable investment in him this winter even amid luxury-tax concerns, and it’s of course likely that other injuries on the pitching staff will pop up and give Martinez further opportunities to start some games. The number of times he takes the hill to start a game is certainly worth monitoring, though; Martinez’s 2023, 2024 and 2025 salaries would all increase by $1MM if he makes 20 starts.

Padres Promote MacKenzie Gore, Place Blake Snell On 10-Day IL

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5:45PM: The Padres have officially announced the moves, putting Snell on the 10-day IL (retroactive to April 11) with a left adductor strain.

3:49PM: Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including AJ Cassavell and Kevin Acee) that Snell has been placed on the 10-day IL, and Gore will indeed start Friday’s game.

12:33PM: The Padres are facing some early-season uncertainty in the starting rotation. Left-hander Blake Snell was scratched from what was supposed to be his first start on Sunday after experiencing adductor tightness. Snell hasn’t been placed on the injured list, but it’s expected he’ll need some time on the shelf to recover.

With Snell’s spot in the rotation up again tomorrow night against the Braves, it looks as if MacKenzie Gore will get his first big league look. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweeted Tuesday that Gore had joined the team’s taxi squad, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote last night the organization expects to soon place Snell on the IL and start Gore in his place.

Gore’s prospect stock has fluctuated considerably in recent seasons. The third overall pick in 2017, he carved up low minors hitters over his first two professional campaigns. In the process, Gore emerged as a potentially elite young talent. Heading into the 2020 season, each of Baseball America, FanGraphs and The Athletic slotted Gore as the sport’s top pitching prospect. All three outlets ranked him among the top six minor league talents overall.

Having reached Double-A late in 2019, Gore looked as if he could make his MLB debut at some point that season. The pandemic wound up necessitating a shorter schedule and a lack of minor league play, however, and Gore spent the year at the alternate training site. Reports emerged that he’d gotten out of whack mechanically, with Baseball America writing over the 2020-21 offseason there were concerns about both his control and a velocity dip.

Those red flags persisted last year, as Gore walked an alarming 12.5% of opponents against a dramatically reduced 18.8% strikeout rate in six Triple-A starts. The Padres reassigned him to their Arizona complex for some lower-pressure work to get back on track, and he returned to an affiliate late in the season with a pair of Double-A starts. He walked another eight batters in nine innings but also punched out 16.

There’s no question Gore’s inconsistent past couple seasons have dealt some kind of hit to his prospect stock. He’s no longer a consensus top ten minor leaguer, nor has he reached the majors as quickly as it had once seemed he would. Yet Gore only turned 23 years old in February and is only two years removed from being perhaps the best pitcher in the minors. He’s certainly still a legitimate prospect, one whom Keith Law of the Athletic slotted #59 overall this offseason.

Law wrote that each of Gore’s fastball, changeup and slider are still plus pitches and that he’s athletic enough to yet emerge as a top-of-the-rotation arm if he finds more mechanical consistency. BA slotted the southpaw fourth in the San Diego system this winter, praising his high-octane repertoire and noting that his “misses off the plate were much smaller” late last year than they’d been early in that season. Gore has only made one appearance so far this year, but he didn’t issue a single free pass in five scoreless innings with Triple-A El Paso last week, fanning seven of the 16 batters he faced.

Gore is already on the 40-man roster, so a Snell IL placement would be sufficient to accommodate his call-up. How long he’d remain in the rotation is to be seen, but Acee writes that both Snell and right-hander Mike Clevinger are expected to require two minor league rehab starts before returning to the majors. The team announced last night that Clevinger, who missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery and opened this year on the IL due to some soreness in his right knee, will make his first rehab start today with High-A Lake Elsinore.

Padres Open To Trading From Rotation, Catching Depth

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With a little over a week until Opening Day, the Padres still have a highly uncertain outfield mix. Michael Conforto and Brett Gardner remain available in free agency, but the Friars are an estimated $6MM shy of the $230MM base luxury tax threshold and are reportedly reluctant to exceed that figure.

If they’re not content with their internal outfield options, a trade may be the better way for the front office to go. Dennis Lin of the Athletic reports the Padres are willing to entertain offers on some of their catchers or starting pitchers. Dealing from their depth in either area wouldn’t necessarily mean the Padres bring back a big league caliber outfielder in return, but it seems the front office is at least open to exploring those possibilities.

Neither development comes as a surprise. During the lockout, MLBTR noted the potential for San Diego to entertain trades from both the catching group and rotation depth. The Padres currently have four catchers on the 40-man roster, all of whom have reasonable claims to a spot on the MLB club.

Austin Nola is the presumptive starter. Luis Campusano is a top prospect who doesn’t have much more to prove in the minors after hitting .295/.365/.541 in Triple-A. Víctor Caratini is coming off a rough season, but he’s had success in the past and works well with Yu Darvish. Jorge Alfaro would appear to be fourth on the depth chart, but San Diego acquired him from the Marlins and he can’t be optioned to the minor leagues, meaning the Padres need to keep him on the active roster or designate him for assignment. The Friars presumably won’t carry all four on the Opening Day roster, even with rosters expanded from 26 to 28 players in the early going, so it’s natural they’d be open to dealing from that group.

On the pitching side of the equation, San Diego is set to open the year with a starting group of Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger and Nick Martínez. That wouldn’t leave spots for any of Chris Paddack, Reiss Knehr or former top prospects Ryan Weathers and MacKenzie Gore. All four of those pitchers have options remaining, and the Friars could certainly opt to stockpile depth after seeing a series of rotation injuries contribute to a second-half collapse last year. Lin doesn’t specify any names whom the Padres are particularly inclined to move, to be clear. Yet as with the catching surplus, there may at least be enough depth for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller to consider a move — particularly if one of those arms can bring back MLB-ready outfield help.

Trent Grisham is locked in as the center fielder, with Will Myers set to handle right field on most days. San Diego saw Tommy Pham depart in free agency, leaving Jurickson Profar and the newly-acquired Matt Beaty among the favorites for playing time in left. That’s not a great group of corner players for a hopeful contender, and the Pads have shopped both Myers and first baseman Eric Hosmer throughout the offseason. Lin writes they’re still exploring possible Hosmer deals, although moving much of the remaining four years and $59MM on his deal has proven too tough a task so far. It’d probably be easier to move Myers, but that’d just further thin the corner outfield group.

Aside from Myers, Profar, Beaty and Grisham, the Padres don’t really have outfield options on the 40-man roster. Lin writes that manager Bob Melvin has already ruled out the possibility of moving second baseman Jake Cronenworth off the position, something the organization considered but never tried last offseason. Alfaro has some experience in left field but shouldn’t be more than an emergency option there. Trayce Thompson and Nomar Mazara are in camp as non-roster invitees and could both get big league looks, but neither is necessarily an upgrade over Profar and Beaty.

More interesting than the possibility of any of those veterans getting a spot is the chance for top prospect CJ Abrams to break camp with the club. A consensus top 15 prospect, Abrams only has 42 games of Double-A experience. He impressed there last year, hitting .296/.363/.420 with a pair of home runs and 13 stolen bases, but his season was cut short when he fractured his left tibia in late June. That kept him from seeing his first Triple-A action.

Nevertheless, both Lin and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune have written this week the organization is considering carrying the 21-year-old on the MLB roster. That’s certainly not a given, as both Lin and Acee hear that some with the Padres believe he’d benefit from more time in the minors. Not only does he have limited experience against high level pitching, Abrams has never played a professional inning outside of the middle infield.

Given his athleticism — evaluators credit him with top-of-the-scale speed — there’s a belief he could handle all three outfield spots. Melvin acknowledged this afternoon he might give Abrams some consideration behind Grisham in center field (Acee link). Keeping him in the majors would allow San Diego some cover behind Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim in the middle infield while Fernando Tatís Jr. is on the injured list. Yet there’d certainly be risk in putting Abrams into a major league outfield right out of the gate, even in a utility capacity, and there’s an argument to be made for the Friars starting him at Triple-A El Paso. It’ll be known soon enough what route Preller, Melvin and the rest of the San Diego brass choose to take with the Opening Day roster.

Padres Select MacKenzie Gore, Three Others

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The Padres have selected the contracts of left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore, right-handed pitchers Efrain Contreras and Steven Wilson, as well as infielder Eguy Rosario per a team announcement. In a corresponding move, outfielder Jorge Oña and Reggie Lawson have been outrighted to Triple-A El Paso. Their 40-man roster is currently full following these transactions.

Gore’s stock has fluctuated wildly in recent seasons. The #3 overall pick in the 2017 draft out of a North Carolina high school, he dominated in the low minors and quickly emerged as one of the game’s top prospects. The southpaw has entered each of the past two seasons among the game’s top ten farmhands, in the estimation of Baseball America, with the evaluators suggesting he had the chance to be a rare #1 caliber arm.

Over the past two seasons, though, Gore’s stock has taken a rather significant hit. There were rumblings of control issues at the alternate training site in 2020, and Gore spent a good chunk of 2021 at the team’s complex facility trying to iron out his mechanics. He only logged 34 cumulative innings between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A.

Certainly, there was no chance of the Padres leaving Gore unprotected in the Rule 5. But it remains to be seen how much they can depend on him going into 2022. The organization likely envisioned Gore as a potential rotation option coming into 2021, and his issues in the minors loomed even larger as the big league staff was crushed by injuries. Getting the 22-year-old back on track is no doubt one of the top offseason priorities for the club’s development staff.

Contreras missed the entire season recovering from a November 2020 Tommy John surgery. Baseball America nevertheless ranked him the Friars’ #18 prospect midseason, calling the 21-year-old a potential back-end starter with plus control.

Wilson, 27, was an eighth-round pick out of Santa Clara in 2018. BA ranked him 30th in the system, praising his mid-90s heater. He pitched to a 3.43 ERA with a huge 40.1% strikeout rate with Triple-A El Paso and could be a big league bullpen option next season.

Rosario, 22, is the #19 prospect in the system according to BA. He’s a hit-first infielder whose bounced around the diamond in the minors. Rosario posted a strong .281/.360/.455 mark with 12 homers in 481 plate appearances with Double-A Amarillo.

Turning to the outrighted players, both Ona and Lawson were once well-regarded prospects themselves. They’ve got little to no big league experience, though. Ona has just 15 plate appearances at the highest level (all in 2020); Lawson has topped out at Double-A. Both had injury-wrecked 2021 seasons in the minors and will now have to work their way back onto the 40-man.

Latest On Padres’ Trade Targets

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Locked in a tight NL West race, the Padres are known to be looking for starting pitching and lineup help at the deadline.  This leaves a wide range of possibilities open for an aggressive general manager like A.J. Preller, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears that Preller’s front office has “has talked with other teams about scenarios ranging from the seemingly obvious to the implausible.”

That gamut might be reflected in two hitters Acee links to the Padres, as he reiterates that the club continues to be interested in Joey Gallo, long mentioned as a target for San Diego.  Beyond Gallo, however, Acee also notes that the Padres were one of the NL teams who had an interest in Nelson Cruz, before Minnesota sent the veteran slugger to the Rays in a trade earlier tonight.  It would’ve been bold to put Cruz (a DH-only player for the last three seasons) back in line for regular outfield duty, which might be why the Twins ultimately found the most interested suitor in an AL team that could deploy Cruz in his normal DH spot.

On the pitching front, the Padres are looking for multiple arms to aid a rotation that had been hit with injuries.  Acee writes that the targets are “both a potential innings eater and a starter who could be a viable option to start early in a playoff series.”  The Padres’ talks with the Rangers and Twins also involved such names as Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kenta Maeda.  San Diego has also had interest in Rockies right-hander Jon Gray and Royals left-hander Danny Duffy, though it is unclear if Duffy is still a consideration after he was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier this week.

Gray, Duffy, and Lyles are all pure rentals, as free agents after the season.  Duffy and Gray have pretty comparable overall metrics, and while Duffy’s 2.51 ERA is significantly better than Gray’s 3.68 ERA, Gray has 93 innings pitched to Duffy’s 61, as Duffy is in the midst of his second IL stint of the season.  Duffy also has full no-trade protection but the California native might be open to agreeing to be dealt back to his home state.  Gray has no such trade protection, though the Rockies’ willingness to move a notable player to a division rival could be a potential obstacle.

The biggest issue with acquiring Lyles is likely that the 30-year-old simply hasn’t pitched well over his two years in Texas, posting a 5.84 ERA in 165 innings since the start of the 2020 season.  A change of scenery could help Lyles regain the effectiveness he displayed in 2018-19, and Lyles is a familiar face for Preller, as the righty pitched for San Diego during the 2017 and 2018 campaigns.

A trade could also help Maeda escape the doldrums of a tough 2021 season, though the right-hander far from struggled in his first year in Minnesota, finishing second in 2020 AL Cy Young Award voting.  Maeda missed a little over three weeks with a groin injury this year, and has pitched better over his last three starts, with a 1.69 ERA over his last 16 innings.

Maeda is no stranger to the NL West after spending his first four MLB seasons with the Dodgers, and he also has the most contractual control of any of the five pitchers known to be on San Diego’s radar.  Maeda is owed only $3MM in guaranteed money in each of the 2022 and 2023 season, but several millions more are available in incentives based on innings pitched and games started.  The overall price tag is still quite reasonable, and as much as Maeda hasn’t been a front-of-the-rotation type in 2021, his contract and his past track record make him a good trade chip.  Of course, this assumes that Minnesota would be open to a trade for anything more than a very generous offer, as the Twins are reportedly not very interested in dealing anything beyond rental players.

Gibson is also controlled beyond 2021, as he still has a full year remaining (worth $7MM) on the three-year, $28MM free agent deal he inked with the Rangers in the 2019-20 offseason.  With a 2.86 ERA over his first 107 innings, Gibson is on pace for a career year, and he already was named an All-Star for the first time in his nine MLB seasons.  Gibson doesn’t miss many bats, however, and both his Statcast profile and overall career numbers don’t much help the argument that he can keep up this borderline ace production over the course of a full season, or into 2022.

What the Padres would be willing to give up for any of these players (or any deadline target) is still up in the air.  The club is close to the $210MM luxury tax threshold already but they reportedly have the ability to cross that threshold, so money might not be the most pressing issue for deadline acquisitions.  In regards to moving prospects, Acee hears that the Padres aren’t willing to move any of their top four minor leaguers — presumably MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Luis Campusano, or Robert Hassell — and might even look to add some more young talent in deals, though obviously the Padres wouldn’t be “deadline sellers” by any stretch of the imagination.

Speculatively, San Diego could look into some type of complex multi-player deal that would see them acquire a package that includes at least one notable MLB player that can help them win now, as well as a minor leaguer or two.  The inclusion of prospects could perhaps make it easier for the Padres to move one of their better minor leaguers as part of a trade.

Padres Option Joey Lucchesi, Josh Naylor

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The Padres announced last night that they’ve optioned left-hander Joey Lucchesi and outfielder/first baseman Josh Naylor to their alternate training site. The moves trim San Diego’s roster to the requisite 28 players that will serve as the maximum roster size from this point forth.

Every club made some moves to drop their roster to 28 players yesterday, but the Padres’ specific choices create a bit of intrigue. Lucchesi had been lined up to start today’s game against the D-backs, but that clearly won’t happen now. San Diego is, at least temporarily, left with a four-man rotation which has already led to speculation among fans about the potential promotion of MacKenzie Gore — ranked by many as the top pitching prospect in all off Major League Baseball.

The anticipation is understandable, but it’s also perhaps best to temper expectations. The Padres had an off day yesterday, so they could simply move everyone else in the rotation up a day. Zach Davies can start on normal rest today, followed by Chris Paddack on Saturday and Dinelson Lamet on Sunday.

San Diego also has other options on its current roster. In both of Lucchesi’s starts this season, he’s been followed up my a multi-inning relief appearance from righty Cal Quantrill. The Padres could turn the spot over to Quantrill to see how he fares in a start or two. Elsewhere on the roster, 20-year-old Luis Patino is considered one of the game’s better pitching prospects himself. The club has said he’ll begin in a bullpen role, and he’s not an option Friday after pitching two innings of relief Wednesday. However, if everyone is pushed up a day thanks to Thursday’s off-day, Patino could easily make a start this weekend or early next week.

All that said, it’s surely tempting to consider Gore. The Padres have lost four of their past five games, allowing an average of 6.2 runs per contest in that time. Their two prior wins to that were slugfests in which the pitching staff still yielded a combined 14 runs. Overall, San Diego ranks 21st in the Majors in ERA (4.70), 17th in FIP (4.23) and 18th in xFIP (4.30). The rotation, anchored by Paddack and Lamet, has been better than the bullpen to this point, but there’s still room for improvement. And in a short season where every win is magnified, the Padres currently sit in third place in the NL West behind the Dodgers and the surprising Rockies. Anyone promoted to the big leagues at this point would fall shy of a full year of MLB service. At the very least, the rotation now becomes an intriguing storyline to follow with a watchful eye.

As for Lucchesi himself, it’s a disappointing outcome after the 2016 fourth-rounder had held down a rotation spot for the two prior seasons. The now 27-year-old southpaw debuted early in 2018 and immediately impressed the club to the point that he stuck for a full year, ultimately making 26 starts with a 4.08 ERA and an average of 10 punchouts per nine innings. His 2019 season was similar: 163 2/3 frames of 4.18 ERA/4.17 FIP ball with solid control, plenty of grounders and nearly a strikeout per inning.

But Lucchesi also struggled to a 4.60 ERA in the second half of the 2019 season, and the Padres have generally been averse to letting him pitch to opposing lineups a third time. The reason for that is glaring; opponents have hit Lucchesi at a .233/.293/.397 clip the first time through the order, a near-identical .233/.288/.407 clip a second time — and a disastrous .312/.395/.548 pace once the lineup turns over a third time. Viewed through that lens, it’s not surprising that Lucchesi has averaged only five innings per start in the Majors (299 innings, 58 starts).

Looking to Naylor, opportunities for the 23-year-old have been limited. Trent Grisham, Wil Myers and Tommy Pham are all producing in the outfield, and Jake Cronenworth has hit well in lieu of injured first baseman Eric Hosmer, who’ll likely return this weekend. Naylor, the No. 12 overall pick by the Marlins back in 2015, has received just 14 plate appearances this year. He made a pair of early starts at DH, but the Friars have rotated several players through that spot rather than committing to a primary option at the newly created post.

Naylor tallied 279 trips to the dish in 2019 but didn’t force his way into a larger role with that showing. In all, he’s a career .248/.314/.402 through 293 PAs. Injuries or slumps in that outfield/first base/DH mix figure to get him another look later this season, but for now he’ll hone his approach at the team’s alternate site.

Prospect Faceoff: Gore v. Luzardo

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It’s easy to dream on top prospects. Such players have not only exhibited great play and immense talent, but have been hyped up yet further by those who judge young players for a living. We tend to see the “top-of-the-rotation” (!!!) and ignore the “potential” … with its implicit acknowledgement of a downside scenario.

This is nothing new to MLBTR readers. All fans have tales of prospect heartbreak — the would-be great ones that weren’t. It’s usually not too tough to diagnose where things went wrong after the fact … but how about predicting in advance? Here’s your chance.

Today, we’ll take a brief look at two of the top pitching prospects in baseball — southpaws Jesus Luzardo (Athletics) and MacKenzie Gore (Padres) — and give you a chance to prognosticate.

We should note at the outset that prospect watchers have a clear preference for Gore. But it’s awfully close. Fangraphs ranks Gore third and Luzardo sixth among all prospects. MLB.com has them five and twelve. Baseball Prospectus: five and nine. Baseball America: six and nine.

Then again … Luzardo is the one that has already reached the majors. It was only a brief showing, but he sure did impress. In a dozen innings, he racked up 16 strikeouts while allowing just two earned runs on five hits and three walks. Luzardo generated an excellent 14.6% swinging-strike rate. He pumped 97 mph heat and showed a balanced, four-pitch arsenal. And he did all this at just 21 years of age (he turned 22 at the end of September) in the same season in which he worked back from a shoulder and lat injuries.

There doesn’t seem to be much of a ceiling on Luzardo. You might worry about the health risks, but the A’s were also surely exercising ample caution. Luzardo had already extended to over 100 frames in 2018. And he seems to have come through just fine. He was absurdly dominant in Cactus League action this spring. Luzardo carried a roughly 50 percent groundball rate in his minor-league career, so that’s another strength.

Whereas Luzardo was a third-round pick in 2016, Gore was the third overall choice in the ensuing draft. Does that added pedigree explain the fact that he’s seen as the better prospect? On the health front, Gore has had some blister problems, though like Luzardo he also passed the century mark in innings pitched in his second full professional season.

In terms of track record … well, Gore just hasn’t gone as far quite yet. That’s no surprise: he’s a year younger and a season behind. Gore annihilated High-A hitters last year, working to a ridiculous 1.02 ERA in 15 starts. But he did run into at least some headwind after a promotion to Double-A. Through 21 2/3 innings over five outings, Gore surrendered 4.15 earned runs per nine innings on twenty hits (three of which left the yard) with a 25:8 K/BB ratio.

Prospect watchers are looking at quite a bit more than short-sample results. And they see a future ace in Gore. Though he’s still fine-tuning some of his offerings and doesn’t throw quite as hard as Luzardo, Gore carries a highly promising four-pitch mix and is said to possess exceptional athleticism and command. If he can finish honing those offerings and figure out just how to use them, he could carve up MLB hitters for years to come.

This isn’t exactly the next Trout v. Harper debate. But it’s interesting to look at these two lefties. Luzardo arguably has a smidge more certainty having already shown his stuff at the game’s highest level. Evaluators credit Gore with a bit loftier ceiling, but he has a bit more finishing work left to do.

Which do you think will have the better career?  (Poll link for app users.)

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