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NL Central Notes: Cubs, Nolin, Torres, Pirates

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The Cubs never made the big offseason deal to acquire a starting pitcher that many expected of them, but president of baseball operations Theo Epstein tells Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago that his team will be ready to pounce on a deal should the right opportunity present itself during the season. “We built in a little bit of room for in-season,” says Epstein. “We built in some (budget) flexibility, but I wouldn’t expect a very aggressive winter next year. I think we’ve been open about the fact that we really did two offseasons worth of spending and acquisitions in one winter, knowing that we like the players available this winter more than next winter.” Epstein also tells Mooney that any trade in which he surrenders young talent would have to land someone that fits “both for now and probably for the long-term if it’s going to be a bigger deal.”

Here’s more from the NL Central…

  • Brewers lefty Sean Nolin has been officially diagnosed with a UCL sprain and not an elbow strain, GM David Stearns told reporters, including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (Twitter link). Nolin will rehab the injury for the next six weeks before making a decision on Tommy John surgery. Milwaukee picked up Nolin from the A’s this offseason and had expected to use him in the ’pen prior to his injury.
  • Via the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt (Twitter link), Stearns also revealed that he had interest in signing right-hander Carlos Torres earlier this offseason upon his release from the Mets. Torres, however, inked a minor league contract with the Braves and headed to camp with Atlanta. While the Brewers weren’t prepared to offer a big league deal at the time, they clearly had a change of heart late in camp, as Milwaukee signed Torres to a Major League pact over the weekend after he opted out of his deal with Atlanta. The Brew Crew can control Torres through 2018 via the arbitration process if he excels in his new environs.
  • While many Pirates fans have focused on the losses of Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez and second-half surprise J.A. Happ this offseason, Ron Cook of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes that not enough emphasis has been placed on retaining an expensive closer in Mark Melancon — a decision that kept a dominant Pirates relief corps intact. Cook spoke to GM Neal Huntington about the decision to hold onto his All-Star closer. “I know first-hand,” Huntington told Cook. “One year I was with Cleveland, we lost more late leads in a month than most teams do all season. I know that’s hard to come back from. That’s a big part of our decision to keep Mark.” Huntington said that he never got any offers to his liking for Melancon this winter and didn’t see many ways to effectively reallocate the $9.65MM Melancon earned in arbitration to definitively improve the 2016 club. Notably, he discussed the loss of Happ and explained that part of the reason the front office felt Happ was so successful was that he was asked to throw more than six innings just once with the Bucs — due in large part to Pittsburgh’s strong bullpen.

NL Notes: Phillies, Melancon, Holliday

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GM Matt Klentak says that despite Aaron Altherr’s wrist injury and Cody Asche’s oblique troubles, the Phillies are not actively looking for additional outfielders, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. The Phillies do, however, remain open to the possibility of acquiring a player should the right opportunity arise. “I wouldn’t characterize it as active,” says Klentak. “This is the time of the year where most teams are starting to connect with each other to talk about different scenarios that are going to play out at the end of camp — who is going to make the team, who may not. So those conversations have begun — generally, anyway.” With Altherr on the shelf until midseason and Asche possibly missing the start of the season, the Phillies plan to go with Odubel Herrera, Peter Bourjos and Rule 5 selection Tyler Goeddel in their outfield to start the season.

  • The Pirates entered the offseason projecting to pay about 10% of their payroll to Mark Melancon. Paying such a steep price for their closer might not have seemed ideal in theory, but GM Neal Huntington says keeping Melancon was the best move in practice, Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. Melancon ended up with a $9.65MM deal for the year when the Bucs avoided arbitration with him. “We went into the offseason thinking Mark would be a part of the bullpen until somebody compelled us to think differently,” says Huntington. “No one did.” The Pirates instead made other cost-cutting moves, including parting ways with Pedro Alvarez and trading Charlie Morton to the Phillies. Melancon and Tony Watson were nearly unstoppable in the late innings last season, and the Bucs are hoping that they can be again in 2016, likely Melancon’s last year with the club.
  • Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday is taking well to learning first base, writes MLB.com’s Richard Justice. “I think having played third base for a few seasons in the Minor Leagues definitely helped,” says Holliday. “There’s definitely a little bit of an adjustment period being that close in. But I feel like I’ve played a long time and I’m athletic enough that with the proper training and work, I can do it.” Holliday has never played first in the regular season in his long big-league career, but he’s appeared there in five games this spring. Once the season starts, Holliday still figures to take his share of time in the outfield. Two young outfielders, Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty, already are in line for everyday at-bats, but playing Holliday at first on occasion would potentially allow another younger player, Tommy Pham, more playing time. Brandon Moss will also figure into the Cardinals’ first base and outfield mix.

Pirates, Mark Melancon Avoid Arbitration

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2:24pm: Melancon will receive $9.65MM for his final season before free agency, according to Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (on Twitter).

2:03pm: The Pirates and closer Mark Melancon have avoided arbitration, according to a club announcement. Financial terms have yet to be disclosed, although the All-Star right-hander was projected to earn an even $10MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Melancon, a client of Relativity Sports, is entering his final season of club control before reaching the open market as a free agent. With his agreement in place, the Pirates have seemingly avoided arbitration with all of their eligible players, although they’ve yet to announce backup catcher Chris Stewart’s reported two-year contract extension.

Arbitration Breakdown: Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, Kenley Jansen

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Mark Melancon

As young fireballers have gotten more opportunity to close, more arbitration cases with few comparables have emerged. Last year, I wrote about such a foursome of closers who had reached second-year arbitration eligibility, and this year I am writing about two of those closers, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, along with Mark Melancon (who I wrote about separately last year). My arbitration model projects each of these pitchers to get raises between $4MM and $4.85MM this winter, each of which would break Jim Johnson’s current record of a $3.88MM raise for a third-year eligible closer.

Depending on how different statistics are weighed, they all have a compelling case to break this record. Johnson’s $3.88MM raise came after he had a 2.49 ERA and 51 saves in 68 2/3 innings, but Johnson struck out just 41 batters that season. He also only had 72 total saves at that point in his career. Although pre-platform performances generally do not matter outside of first-time-eligible arbitration salaries, one large exception I have found is career saves for closers. It is clear that having a history of being a closer matters, which means that Chapman’s 146 career saves, Melancon’s 121 saves, and Jansen’s 142 saves will all help them have better arbitration cases than Johnson did with 72 career saves.

Melancon also had 51 platform-year saves, matching Johnson’s 51 in his platform year in 2012. Along with his 2.23 ERA in 76 2/3 innings, he should have little trouble topping Johnson’s $3.88MM raise after his 2.49 ERA in 68 2/3 innings. Melancon’s $4.6MM projected raise seems about right.

Although Chapman only had 33 platform-year saves, his 1.63 ERA and aforementioned 146 career saves have led him to get an even bigger projected raise than Melancon. His projection actually slightly exceeded the Kimbrel Rule maximum, which is why he is projected for $12.9MM instead of the $13MM figure that was actually forecast by the model. In spite of the lower platform-year save total, Chapman’s vastly superior ERA and greater bulk of career saves give fair reason to assume he will probably get a bigger raise than Melancon, whose case is a straightforward improvement over Jim Johnson’s 2013 case. Both pitchers are likely to get raises between $4MM and $4.85MM.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen is projected to land a $4MM raise, which would just barely top Johnson’s record. Jansen had 36 platform-year saves, but 142 career saves, so he has fewer platform-year saves but almost double Johnson’s career saves. His platform-year ERA (2.41) is a bit better than Johnson’s was, although it came in fewer innings (52 1/3 versus 68 2/3) due to the fact that Jansen opened the season on the disabled list with a foot injury. I could see Jansen failing to make the case that he should get a larger raise than Johnson did, although if Melancon or Chapman set new records, he could easily argue that those are more applicable comparisons.

It is difficult to find pitchers other than Johnson that would apply to this trio of players. Jose Valverde had 44 platform-year saves going into his 2009 case, in which he earned $3.3MM, and he did have 142 career saves. However, his ERA was 3.38. A year prior to that, Francisco Rodriguez had a $2.95MM raise with similar numbers, but that case would be even more stale than Valverde’s. Joel Hanrahan got a $2.94MM raise with 36 saves going into his 2013 case, but he only had 96 career saves at that point. Johnson’s case against appears more applicable for all three of these closers.

Each of these three players could set the market for each other, so their raises are likely to be highly interdependent. They are also likely to set the market for future closers, now that more players will presumably reach their third year of arbitration eligibility with a career of closing behind them. I think that my model probably has appropriately guessed their salaries for 2016, but if it is wrong, it will probably be either too high on all three, or too low on all three.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cafardo On Free Agency, Miller, Melancon, Parra

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Here are a few highlights from the latest column by Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:

  • Cafardo begins with a discussion of why many of the top available hitters on the free agent market haven’t signed yet (a question we also discussed a bit today). Cafardo quotes Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette, who argues that part of the problem might be a reluctance to spend big given the spotty history of “mega-deals” for hitters. Cafardo notes, however, that there are a number of teams with holes, and that the likes of Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes Chris Davis and Alex Gordon are ultimately likely to get their “mega-deals” from someone.
  • The Yankees have been asking for a top young starter in return for Andrew Miller. Teams haven’t been willing to meet that price, so it seems likely the Yankees will keep him. (Yankees exec Brian Cashman has already said he intends to keep Miller.)
  • Another top reliever who might be staying put is Mark Melancon, Cafardo writes. The Pirates have made Melancon (who will be paid handsomely in his last year before free agency eligibility) available, but thus far he’s still with the Bucs.
  • From a statistical perspective, Gerardo Parra’s defense has taken enormous steps backward in the past two years — UZR, for example, had him at +31.1 runs in 2013 and -18.1 runs last season, while Defensive Runs Saved had him dropping from 41 runs to -10 over that period. But scouts aren’t convinced those numbers represent a real change in his abilities, Cafardo writes. “He’s still one of the best defensive outfielders in the game,” says an AL scout. “He takes very good routes to balls, and as a pitcher or manager, you feel comfortable with him out there.” The Rockies and Royals seem like possibilities for Parra.

Pirates Notes: McCutchen, Melancon, Watson

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Here’s the latest from PNC Park…

  • Andrew McCutchen is under contract for two more seasons and the Pirates have a $14.5MM club option on him for 2018 that is right now a lock to be exercised.  Even with up to three years of control remaining, however, ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required) believes the Bucs should open negotiations with McCutchen’s agents this spring in order to give both sides some idea if an extension is even possible.  The Pirates would have to offer a deal well beyond their usual comfort zone just to have a chance at locking McCutchen up past his age-31 season, and McCutchen would have to be willing to accept something below market value.  If there’s no common ground, Olney suggests Pittsburgh should start seeing what they could get for McCutchen in a trade, perhaps even as early as this summer.
  • Mark Melancon’s $10MM projected arbitration salary has made him a trade candidate this offseason, though Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review wonders if the Pirates have saved enough money in other transactions to be able to afford keeping the closer in 2016.  With the Bucs already suffering notable losses in the rotation and infield, Sawchik argues that the club could retrench around its excellent bullpen rather than trading from an area of strength.
  • How good, in fact, has Pittsbugh’s bullpen been?  Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan notes that Melancon and Tony Watson were the two best relievers in baseball from 2013-15 as per the Win Probability Added (WPA) metric.  The 2015 Pirates bullpen had a collective 11.8 WPA, the second-highest single-year total in history dating back to 1974.  Watson is also arbitration-eligible this winter, and MLBTR projects him to earn $4.6MM in his second time through the arb process.

NL Central Notes: Melancon, Cardinals, Leake

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Free agent starter Mike Leake could be on the verge of signing somewhere soon.  The Cardinals are believed to be a leading suitor for him, though it’s not clear if that will be his landing spot this winter.  So far, we’ve seen multiple logical destinations for Leake fall out of the picture for various reasons.

Leake reportedly would have given the D’Backs a sizable discount in order to pitch close to home in Arizona, but Tony La Russa called that match “probably unlikely” to happen after the Shelby Miller acquisition.  The Giants could have moved to retain Leake, but that’s no longer a real possibility after signing two high-priced free agent starters.  At this stage of free agency, the Cardinals certainly appear to be one of the best fits for the 28-year-old.

Here’s today’s look at the NL Central:

  • Could the Pirates still move Mark Melancon this winter?  Adam Berry of MLB.com asked Pirates GM Neal Huntington about what the Charlie Morton trade means for Melancon’s future in Pittsburgh.  “We’ve never had to trade Mark,” Huntington replied. “It’s always been [a question of] if we’re better with him with us, or if we think it’s a better move for the organization to move him elsewhere, and that still applies.”  In short, Berry feels that the Bucs are likely to keep Melancon, though they won’t say no if they’re blown away with the perfect offer.
  • The free agent market has shifted to a tier including the likes of Mike Leake, Scott Kazmir, Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy, and Wei-Yin Chen, but the Cardinals are only really interested in the first two because of their aversion to giving up a draft pick, as Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  Between Leake and Kazmir, the Cards are probably more interested in Leake.  Leake is younger, has proven himself to be a strong pitcher in the NL, and has been one of the best hitting pitchers in the league as well.  Leake batted quite well early in his career, and while he had his worst season at the plate in 2015, he’s an overall .212/.235/.310 hitter in the Majors.  That’s obviously not good, relative to the rest of the league, but it’s not bad for a pitcher.
  • Do the Cardinals really need to sign a pitcher to anything more than a one-year deal given the arms they already have in-house?  Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com says the Cardinals feel that you can never have too much pitching and therefore they are not ruling out a multi-year deal for a strong starter.  The Cardinals could find themselves with a pitching logjam in 2017 thanks, in part, to Lance Lynn’s return, but the Cards are also aware that Lynn and Jaime Garcia will be free agents after that season.  It might make sense for the Cardinals to deal with a bit of a logjam in ’17 in order to have options beyond that campaign.

 

Central Notes: Frazier, Rodriguez, Melancon, Royals

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The Indians and White Sox were both rumored to be interested in Todd Frazier during last week’s Winter Meetings (the Royals, too, are said to have discussed him as a possible left field option), and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports adds a few more teams to the list of interested clubs. The Dodgers, Nationals, Rangers and Angels are all “believed to have some involvement or interest,” in the Reds’ third baseman, Heyman writes. Talks are “starting to percolate,” says Heyman. Last week, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported that the Reds are “heavily” shopping Frazier.

A few more notes from the game’s Central divisions…

  • Utility man Sean Rodriguez is generating interest from four clubs at the moment, including the Pirates and Tigers, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. The 30-year-old batted just .246/.281/.362 in 240 PAs with the Pirates last season, but his ability to play all four infield positions as well as the outfield corners is a selling point, Crasnick notes.
  • In an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, Pirates GM Neal Huntington confirmed that he’s willing to listen to offers on closer Mark Melancon (Twitter link). However, he also added, “We’re gonna have to get something that really makes sense to even consider moving him.” The Pirates recently freed up some money by trading Charlie Morton to the Phillies and may have saved a bit of cash in the Neil Walker/Jon Niese swap, so there may not be as much pressure, financially speaking, to move him as there was even one week ago.
  • Despite last season’s World Series Championship, the Royals are expected to operate with a payroll that is similar to 2015’s mark of $115MM, writes the Kansas City Star’s Sam Mellinger. As such, it’s unlikely that the club is able to retain Alex Gordon, barring unforeseen circumstances. Specifically, Mellinger writes that the club could circle back to Gordon if he lingers on the open market, unable to find a significant pact (presumably, one of five years). Mellinger notes that recent Royals free agents James Shields and Ervin Santana saw their price drop substantially later in the offseason, and the team does believe that the crowded outfield market means that supply and demand are working in its favor with regards to the outfield market, Mellinger writes. It does seem unlikely (to me, anyhow) that Gordon’s price will dip back into Kansas City’s comfort zone, although the Royals do have to be encouraged to hear that the Cardinals aren’t likely to embark on an aggressive pursuit of Gordon.

Pirates Notes: Morton, Pitching, Melancon, Niese, Nicasio, Kang

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The Pirates are one of several teams holding a FanFest today. Reporters, including MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth, were on hand for the Q&A with GM Neal Huntington. The Pirates’ GM admitted that today’s Morton swap was mostly about payroll relief, although the club does like David Whitehead.

Here’s more Pirates notes:

  • Today’s trade of Charlie Morton will likely instigate “multiple moves,” tweets Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. After the move, the Pirates payroll is around $88MM with a target of about $105MM per Biertempfel (tweet). Huntington told reporters including MLB.com’s Adam Berry (tweet), “A big part of the motivation was to free some dollars to allow us to deepen the club, to reestablish some depth.“
  • Industry sources implied to Biertempfel (tweet) that pitchers like Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, or others over $10MM per season are not on the Pirates radar. However, there is no doubt that at least one starting pitcher is on the agenda. The rotation presently consists of Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, Jon Niese, and Jeff Locke. Presumably, the club prefers for Locke or Niese to fill a long relief role with Allen Webster serving as minor league depth. Top prospect Tyler Glasnow is not expected to reach the majors early in the season.
  • Closer Mark Melancon is expected to earn $10MM in arbitration per MLBTR estimates, but the club is under no pressure to trade him, tweets Biertempfel. The team could potentially get by in the late innings with Tony Watson, Arquimedes Caminero, and new acquisition Juan Nicasio. However, a bullpen with Melancon is certainly more robust. With the market for quality closers at a premium, Pittsburgh would find it difficult to replace Melancon. Per Huntington, “if somebody steps up and gives us a return that’s significant enough to motivate us to get a little bit uncomfortable, then we get a little bit uncomfortable.” (h/t to Wilmoth for the quote).
  • In commenting on Nicasio, Huntinton told Wilmoth, “We do think there are some things we can help him with. Now, is it going to be enough to make him a good starter? Time will tell. Is it going to be enough to make him a really good reliever? Time will tell.” The Pirates have developed a reputation as a haven for reclamation projects which could make Nicasio an interesting player to watch.
  • Comparing recent acquisition Jon Niese to the market, Huntington said “he’ll continue to put up numbers similar to guys who are getting sixty, seventy, eighty, ninety million dollars in free agency — we have three, essentially, one-year contracts with Jon Niese.” While Niese comes with less cachet than somebody like Mike Leake, it’s true that they project to perform similarly. As such, Huntington may very well beat the market with this swap.
  • Huntington says Jung-ho Kang is more likely to return in April than May, per Berry (tweet). If true, this is a lucky break for the club. They currently have some combination of Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Alen Hanson, and Pedro Florimon penciled in for second base, shortstop, and third base. An injury or poor performance from Hanson could leave the club scrambling for reinforcements.
  • The Pirates will retrench in 2016 with an aim to contend again in 2017, writes John Perotto of the Beaver County Times. While the club will still pursue a postseason berth next year, they’ll have their eyes on developing top prospects like Josh Bell, Glasnow, and Jameson Taillon.

Bullpen Notes: Wilson, Melancon, Twins, Bastardo, Blanton

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The Tigers are interested in Yankees left-hander Justin Wilson and have, in fact, had trade talks with the Yankees about their lefty setup man, reports Marly Rivera of ESPN (via Twitter). It’s not clear how far talks between the two sides progressed, but the Tigers have a known need for a left-handed reliever, and the Yankees have been open-minded about dealing almost any player on their roster. Wilson, who has three years of club control remaining, is in his prime at 28 years of age and has a lifetime 3.03 ERA with 8.7 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9 in 199 1/3 innings between the Pirates and Yankees.

A few more notes on the relief market…

  • The Nationals had dialogue with the Pirates about closer Mark Melancon, though nothing is serious at this time, Bill Ladson of MLB.com tweets. Before Washington could even acquire Melancon, they’ll probably have to move at least one of Jonathan Papelbon or Drew Storen to free up some room.
  • Twins GM Terry Ryan says the team is unlikely to bring back relievers Brian Duensing and Blaine Boyer, as Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com writes. Minnesota is eyeing left-handed relief help in Nashville and is interested in both Tony Sipp and Antonio Bastardo, per Bollinger. The Twins also checked in on veteran Matt Thornton, but their preference is a more strikeout-oriented arm, says Bollinger, so Thornton may not be a fit.
  • Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press hears that teams have reached out to the Twins about All-Star closer Glen Pekrins in their search for left-handed relief, but talks didn’t get far (links to Twitter). Perkins is owed a reasonable $12.8MM over the next two seasons and has a $6.5MM club option for the 2018 campaign. That option becomes a player option if he’s traded.
  • The Cubs meeting with the agents for Bastardo, according to Robert Murray of Baseball Essential (on Twitter). The Cubs have been very active over the past 24 hours and are known to be seeking bullpen upgrades.
  • Shawn Kelley’s agent, Mike McCann, told Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter) that his client has yet to pick a team.  The Nationals are among “multiple clubs” in “active discussions” with McCann.
  • Right-hander Joe Blanton is drawing interest from a wide number of teams after a strong 2015 showing in the bullpen, tweets Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith. Blanton could be a candidate for a multi-year deal after his excellent bounceback campaign.
  • Multiple reporters, including J.P. Hoornstra of the L.A. News Group, have tweeted that Todd Coffey is in Nashville hoping to latch on with a club as he eyes an MLB comeback. Coffey, 35, hasn’t pitched in the bigs since 2012 but was excellent at Triple-A as recently as 2014.
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