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Pen Notes: O’Day, Cishek, Thornton, Cotts, Miller, Astros, Rockies, A’s, Tigers

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Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette said today that his club is hoping to tie up an agreement with top free agent reliever Darren O’Day in short order, as Rich Dubroff of CSNmidatlantic.com tweets. “We’re continuing to work on that Darren O’Day project,” said Duquette. “We’re going to try to bring that to a head here in the next couple of days.”

Here’s more on an active market for relievers:

  • About a dozen teams have “checked in” on free agent righty Steve Cishek, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets. Non-tendered southpaw Cesar Ramos is also drawing wide interest he notes. But the Twins haven’t looked into either of those options. The club is set to meet with the representatives of Fernando Rodney and has some interest in lefty Tony Sipp as well.
  • 39-year-old lefty Matt Thornton has drawn interest from six clubs, including the Twins, according to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (Twitter links). Thornton still brings a big fastball, and agent Adam Hubble says his client still hopes to pitch for another three or four seasons despite his advanced age.
  • As has previously been reported, and Twins GM Terry Ryan confirmed today, Minnesota has interest in a reunion with lefty Neal Cotts, Berardino tweets. “We still have interest,” said Ryan.
  • The Astros “have remained interested” in Yankees closer Andrew Miller, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports on Twitter. It remains far from clear, of course, whether any team will be willing to offer enough to get New York to part with the outstanding lefty, though Houston certainly has the young starting pitching coveted by the Yanks.
  • As has seemed apparent all along, the Astros are continuing to cast a wide net after apparently missing on Aroldis Chapman. Per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter), Houston is “looking” not only at Miller but also Mark Melancon of the Pirates. And Drew Storen of the Nationals might feature as a “fallback option,” he adds.
  • While the prognosis seems promising, it’s worth noting also that Astros set-up man Pat Neshek just underwent foot surgery, as Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. Neshek was forced to pitch through the injury last year
  • While internal options like Scott Oberg and Jairo Diaz will be considered, the Rockies also intend to check the market for a closer, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports on Twitter. Colorado recently non-tendered John Axford, who held down the 9th after Adam Ottavino was lost to Tommy John surgery.
  • The Athletics took a shot at signing righty Mark Lowe before he landed in Detroit, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. Oakland has already done quite a bit of work in the bullpen, but it seems that the club could still be eyeing further additions.
  • The Tigers are now moving down the line to address the team’s need for a left-handed reliever, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports. After already making several pitching additions, Detroit could consider free agents such as Antonio Bastardo, Tony Sipp, and Craig Breslow, says Fenech, though it remains unclear whether the club has specific interest in any of those particular players.
  • While the Mets were involved in talks for Chapman over the summer, assistant GM John Ricco said today that the team hasn’t pursued him over the winter, as Tim Rohan of the New York Times reports on Twitter.
  • Former Royals minor league lefty Buddy Baumann appears to be quite a hot commodity among minor league free agents, per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter). Despite never having thrown an MLB inning, Baumann has already drawn five big league offers this winter. The 27-year-old worked to a 3.04 ERA in 77 frames at Triple-A last year, spending most of his time in the pen, with 9.8 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9.

Central Notes: Indians, Reds, Chapman, Cubs, Tigers, Pelfrey, Cards, Pirates

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Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti tells MLB Network Radio (audio link) that he’s chasing offensive upgrades, with interest in hitters from both sides of the plate. “I think it’s probably safe to say … that if you’re a corner bat or an outfielder, that we are investigating those options,” said Antonetti, who added that Cleveland is “definitely looking to improve our position player club.” The executive made clear in his comments that the team is open to adding multiple bats.

Here’s more from the central divisions:

  • The Reds “have made everyone available,” Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets, including third baseman Todd Frazier. President of baseball operations Walt Jocketty indicated that would probably be the case back in November, as C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported at the time. “I don’t know if we’re in a position to say there’s any untouchables,” said Jocketty. With the Winter Meetings opening tomorrow, it seems that Cincinnati will be one of the major sellers to watch.
  • While the Reds have fielded the most active recent interest from the Dodgers and the Astros in star southpaw Aroldis Chapman, per another Heyman tweet, Cincinnati and Houston have been “having [a] hard time matching up.” All indications are that the ’Stros have been casting a wide net in their search for a top-notch reliever, possibly indicating a focus on achieving value, and it’s certainly possible to imagine that the team will be hesitant to cough up a major prospect haul after cashing in some significant assets at the trade deadline. Cincinnati will no doubt be looking to add near-MLB talent to plug onto a roster that has dealt with injury and performance issues in recent years, though MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports that the team has some encouraging news on the progress of shortstop Zack Cozart and catcher Devin Mesoraco.
  • The Cubs have been chatting with the Rays about “some match ups,” tweets Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com, who notes that lefty reliever Jake McGee is “intriguing.” We have heard recently that Chicago could be looking to add a major arm via trade.
  • Tigers GM Al Avila says his focus this week in Nashville will be on bolstering the pen, Jason Beck of MLB.com tweets. Detroit might still look to make changes on the position player side of the equation, but that probably will not occur this week.
  • The Tigers have already addressed their rotation, of course, after announcing the signing of Mike Pelfrey to go with the previously-inked Jordan Zimmermann. As Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports, Avila called the move a “scout signing” in that the team believes the big righty has shown the ability to produce solid results moving forward. “He’s a guy we were very comfortable with,” Avila explained “He’s a guy that’s a good bet for us that he can bounce back and build off last year. Our intent was to get a guy that can get us 30 starts, give us some innings, a veteran guy that has good clubhouse makeup.”
  • Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr. says that his club will “stretch again if we see the right opportunity” after putting in a big offer for lefty David Price, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. All told, Goold writes, the organization appears primed to have a major impact on the market even after missing on Price.
  • Another team that chased Price, the Cubs, sought to woo him with a seven-year, $161MM offer, per Levine (via Twitter). That is believed to be the third-highest offer, behind the Cards and the ultimately successful Red Sox. Of course, Chicago ultimately went on to add John Lackey for two years and $32MM, a signing that drew strong praise from at least one rival GM, per Heyman (via Twitter).
  • Meanwhile, the Pirates have a host of needs that remain open at this time, as Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Team president Frank Coonelly tells Sawchik that the organization anticipates a rise in payroll, and has “flexibility to add by free agency and/or trades.” He also made an interesting observation on the club’s range of possible actions, saying the 2016 ballclub “may include players who are available to us in part because we have made other moves.” That could be a reference to high-priced veterans Mark Melancon and Neil Walker, both of whom have emerged as trade candidates. It seems that Pittsburgh could be a major mover at the GM Meetings, one of the many topics that Zach Links and I covered in this week’s Winter Meetings preview on the MLBTR Podcast.

Quick Hits: Cueto, Cano, Park, Tribe, Colon

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Diamondbacks ownership sees Johnny Cueto as a “special case” who is worth a franchise-altering investment, according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (links to Twitter).  The team’s six-year, $120MM offer to Cueto would’ve been above the D’Backs stated comfort zone of a $15MM-$18MM average annual salary for a pitcher, yet Rosenthal notes that Arizona has been willing to stretch payroll in recent years.  The D’Backs gave their largest contract in club history to an unproven rookie in Yasmany Tomas, and they were also prepared to give Masahiro Tanaka a huge contract after posting a bid to negotiate with him in the 2013-14 offseason.  Cueto, meanwhile, rejected Arizona’s offer in order to further explore his options.  With Jordan Zimmermann now off the market, it’s indeed possible that Cueto could perhaps surpass that offer from the Snakes.  Here’s some more from around baseball…

  • The Mariners privately acknowledge that Robinson Cano will inevitably be moved from second to first base, according to Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune (Twitter link).  The question now may be how many more seasons can Cano remain at the keystone.  Cano just turned 33 last month and his defensive metrics (-7.3 UZR/150, minus-9 Defensive Runs Saved) plummeted.  Since Mark Trumbo could be traded or non-tendered, the M’s may have an opening at first as early as 2016, though I’d guess the club is probably more likely to give Cano at least one more year at second and obtain a short-term first baseman if Trumbo is indeed moved.
  • Byung-ho Park is set to arrive in Minneapolis today to continue negotiating, and perhaps finalize, a contract with the Twins.  Park spoke to Korean media (including Yonhap News) before departing, saying “there are some things we need to go over with the club. I hope to be able to return with a positive result….I am approaching (the upcoming contract talks) with a positive mind.”  Park also discussed transitioning to MLB, speaking to former teammate Jung Ho Kang and his willingness to be a designated hitter in Minnesota if that’s how the club feels he is best used.
  • The reliever market is widely expected to heat up this week, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick explains in a series of tweets.  Part of the logjam has been due to the fact that two star closers (Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon) are on the trade block, so teams are exploring trade options before looking at free agents.  Over a third of league is currently looking for relief pitching help — Crasnick lists the Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Mets, Nationals, Pirates, Red Sox, Royals and Tigers.
  • Several bits of Indians roster speculation are discussed by Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer in his latest reader mailbag.  Highlights include Hoynes’ belief that Lonnie Chisenhall will still be with the Tribe next season rather than be traded or non-tendered this winter, doubt that Jay Bruce would be a legitimate Indians trade target and the idea that Wilin Rosario might be of some interest to add pop to Cleveland’s lineup.
  • Would a reunion with Bartolo Colon be a good move for the Athletics?  Joe Stiglich of CSNBayArea.com looks at the pros and cons Oakland faces in signing the veteran right-hander.

NL Notes: Reyes, Pirates, D’Backs, Davis

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Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes has been charged with abuse of a family or household member, the Associated Press reports (via SI.com). The 32-year-old has entered a plea of not guilty to the charges, which stem from his recent arrest in Hawaii for alleged violent acts against his wife during an argument. As explained in the linked post, the commissioner’s office will be watched closely as it applies the newly agreed-upon domestic abuse protocol for the first time to a highly-paid, high-profile player.

As we wait for further information in that disappointing and concerning situation, let’s take a look at some other links relating to National League clubs:

  • The Pirates are “definitely listening” on all players entering their final year of contract control, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports on Twitter. Closer Mark Melancon, second baseman Neil Walker, and first baseman Pedro Alvarez are all prime candidates to be dealt, says Stark. It certainly will be fascinating to see how the team proceeds with those notable players, including what they seek (and potentially obtain) in return as well as what other moves the ultimate decisions set up.
  • The Diamondbacks are said to be looking into a variety of options to add starting pitching, including cashing in some young position player talent via trade. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic breaks down the considerations facing GM Dave Stewart and co. Piecoro gathers the thoughts of numerous talent evaluators in the interesting piece, focusing his analysis on the timing of the team’s assets. Arizona is still testing several possibilities, he reports, but it sounds rather likely that some kind of hitting-for-pitching deal will come together at some point this winter.
  • Bernie Miklasz of 101Sports.com takes a look at the Cardinals’ decision-making process regarding free agent first baseman/outfielder Chris Davis. There’s a fit on paper, writes the veteran journalist, but he says it would rate as a surprise if St. Louis emerges as a serious bidder — especially if the ask goes past five years (as it almost assuredly does).
  • If those links don’t have enough interesting reading to get you through turkey day, check out these two recent pieces on Fangraphs: Brewers GM David Stearns spoke with David Laurila about a variety of interesting and relevant topics. And Jeff Sullivan assesses the trade value of all-world Reds closer Aroldis Chapman.

Cafardo’s Latest: Giants, Braves, Gordon, Chapman

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Here’s the latest from The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo…

  • The Braves are one of multiple teams who have asked the Giants about Joe Panik and Matt Duffy in trade talks but San Francisco isn’t interesting in dealing either young infielder.  Panik and Duffy may have come up in discussions with the Braves over pitching, as Cafardo reports the Giants have discussed Julio Teheran and Shelby Miller.
  • Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon is generating “a ton of interest” and Miami is at least listening.  It would take a controllable, front-of-the-rotation arm to really get the Marlins’ attention, however, and it “seems unlikely” that Gordon would go anywhere.  I have to agree that dealing Gordon would be a stunning move even for the Marlins; if anything, the club is far more likely to extend him, as has been noted in recent reports.
  • The Reds and Red Sox discussed a trade for Aroldis Chapman, but Cincinnati wanted more from Boston than the Sox eventually sent to the Padres to land Craig Kimbrel.  That would represent a stunningly high asking price for a closer who is only under contract through the 2016 season.  Kimbrel, by contrast, is owed $25MM through the 2017 season and Boston has a $13MM club option on his services for 2018.
  • Andrew Miller is “atop” the Astros’ list of closer targets and Mark Melancon is also under consideration.  We’d already heard about Houston’s interest in acquiring a top reliever earlier today, with Miller’s name included with the likes of Chapman, Brad Boxberger and Ken Giles.
  • Speaking of Melancon, the Pirates closer tells Cafardo that he’s keeping an open mind about trade speculation.  “I love the Pirates. I love our group of guys and would love to stay here, but I also understand the business of it.  Every organization has a different business plan, and if the Pirates feel they need to deal me, then I understand that. Our people haven’t said a word to me about the possibility, so until that changes, I’m assuming I’m starting the year with the Pirates.”
  • The Twins are another team looking for relief help and they’ve also received a lot of interest about third baseman Trevor Plouffe.  There has been speculation that Plouffe could be moved to make way for Miguel Sano at third base, especially if the Twins come to an agreement with Byung-Ho Park.
  • Though Brett Gardner’s name has surfaced in trade talks, it’s “not a slam dunk” that the Yankees would part with him since he’s a clubhouse leader.  As CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman did yesterday, Cafardo also downplays the idea of a Gardner-for-Starlin Castro trade, noting that the Yankees would only trade Gardner if they got a starting pitcher back.
  • Five general managers told Cafardo that they wouldn’t take Hanley Ramirez in a trade even if the Red Sox covered at least half of Ramirez’s remaining salary.  Ramirez is owed $66MM through 2018 and he has a $22MM vesting option for 2019, so even at a reduced rate, that’s still a hefty price for a player coming off such a rough season on and off the field.
  • Cafardo feels the Cubs and Giants have the best chance at signing John Lackey, who wants to remain in the National League.  The Cardinals have also “kept their toes in the water” for his services.  The Red Sox have checked in on Lackey but are more focused on landing an ace starter.
  • John Boggs, Trevor Cahill’s agent, said his client looks to be a starter again “but he would accept a bullpen spot if he doesn’t secure a starting job.”

Pirates “Shopping” Neil Walker, Have Talked With Orioles

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FRIDAY: The Bucs are “shopping” Walker and have spoken not only with the O’s but with several other clubs, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter).

WEDNESDAY: The Orioles and Pirates discussed a trade that would’ve sent Neil Walker to Baltimore at last week’s GM Meetings, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Baltimore’s initial hope was that Walker could be non-tendered due to his impending raise (MLBTR projects him at $10.7MM in 2016), but the Pirates do plan on tendering him a contract, Kubatko notes. Trade talks between the two sides didn’t get very far, as Pittsburgh’s asking price on Walker was deemed too high.

Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun also heard the two sides talked Walker, adding that it’s “pretty evident” that the Pirates are attempting to move Walker (links to Twitter). He classifies talks between the two teams as “off and on.” Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review hears that the Pirates are fielding offers for Walker, though he doesn’t characterize the desire to move Walker quite as aggressively as Encina does.

Both Kubatko and Encina note that while Walker is a second baseman by trade, the O’s are set there with Jonathan Schoop. Rather, the duo suggests that Walker could see time at first base while spelling Schoop and third baseman Manny Machado on occasion. Kubatko adds that the two sides could revisit talks in Nashville at the Winter Meetings next month and notes that the Pirates are likely seeking young pitching in return.

Per Biertempfel, Pirates GM Neal Huntington appeared on KDKA-FM radio today and said that the team has the resources to retain Walker, closer Mark Melancon ($10MM projection) and first baseman Pedro Alvarez ($8.1MM projection). All three have been suggested as possibilities to leave the organization, however, with Melancon and Walker being trade candidates and Alvarez being either a trade or non-tender candidate. Recently, Jon Heyman noted that the Pirates have fielded offers on all three, plus the rest of their arbitration class.

Walker, who recently turned 30, will be a free agent next winter. He’s coming off a solid, albeit down season at the plate, in which he batted .269/.328/.427 with 16 home runs in 603 plate appearances. Walker has rated as a considerably above-league-average bat by measure of OPS+ (114) and wRC+ (115) in parts of six big league seasons dating back to 2010. A history of back troubles and a pair of fluke injuries — a 2014 appendectomy and a severely lacerated finger in 2013 — have limited him to an average of 136 games per season in that time. He also rates as a below-average defender, though not egregiously so. Defensive Runs Saved pegs him at -10 runs over the course of 6889 innings at second base, and Ultimate Zone Rating feels he’s about six runs below average per 150 games.

The intrigue surrounding Baltimore’s interest in Walker is somewhat dependent on how the team truly feels he’s best deployed. If Baltimore is looking at Walker as an everyday first base option, then that would signal that the team isn’t confident in its ability to retain free agent Chris Davis. If the plan is for Walker to split time between DH, first base, second base, third base and perhaps even the corner outfield, as Encina writes, the interest wouldn’t seem to immediately preclude a reunion with Davis.

Heyman’s Latest: Offseason Spending, CarGo, Pirates, Kennedy, Gallardo

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In his latest notes column, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports begins by classifying the Angels, Giants, Tigers, Red Sox, Cubs, Cardinals and Dodgers as the expected “big spenders” of the offseason, breaking down some targets that each club could pursue. Heyman goes on to call the Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, D-Backs, Mets, Royals and Padres as “medium spenders,” noting that each has needs and could make one significant addition or a series of mid-range moves in order to address multiple areas around the roster. As he did with the big-spending clubs, Heyman examines a few plausible scenarios for each, noting that the Royals are still in the three- or four-year range on Alex Gordon, thereby casting some doubt on a potential reunion.

A few highlights from his column…

  • While Andrelton Simmons’ name has been a hot topic over the past 15 hours or so, there’s a “good chance” that the Braves will make Julio Teheran available at some point this winter. Teheran’s value isn’t as high as that of Simmons at the moment, I wouldn’t think, due to a down year for Teheran in 2015. Moving him would be selling low, which makes it more difficult to envision a deal, from my vantage point.
  • The White Sox were one of “many teams” to which agent Brodie Van Wagenen made a presentation regarding Yoenis Cespedes, though the greater needs for the ChiSox come at catcher, third base, second base and shortstop.
  • The Rockies have again made Carlos Gonzalez available in trades, as many expected would be the case following the summer trade of Troy Tulowitzki. CarGo dominated the National League from June through season’s end after struggling with injuries in 2014 and early 2015 and undoubtedly restored an exceptional amount of trade value. Heyman speculatively listed the Orioles as a potential match when discussing Baltimore in his intro section.
  • Pittsburgh has fielded offers on all seven of its players that are a year removed from free agency. That includes Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, Mark Melancon, Mike Morse, Chris Stewart and Francisco Cervelli. However, the Pirates are also said to be considering an attempt at locking Cervelli up on a multi-year deal.
  • Ian Kennedy is planning to decline the Padres’ qualifying offer, per Heyman. Both Tim Dierkes and I have noted that there’s little sense in Kennedy accepting the offer. The right-hander is fourth in innings pitched in the NL over the past five seasons and has averaged 8.5 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 in that time while posting a 3.89 ERA, 3.87 FIP and 3.78 xFIP. Homer struggles in 2015 aside, Kennedy finished strong and should get paid somewhere. It’s hard to envision a Scott Boras client being the first to accept a qualifying offer, and if all else fails, Kennedy can go the Ervin Santana route and sign a one-year deal near the value of the QO late in the offseason.
  • Similarly, Yovani Gallardo plans to turn down the Rangers’ QO. Heyman hears he’s expected to sign elsewhere despite being a Fort Worth area native. The Rangers will again attempt to re-sign Colby Lewis, he adds.

Heyman’s Latest: Melancon, Closers, Nathan, Astros, Iwakuma

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As we continue to march through a busy day in the rumor mill, here’s the latest from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com:

  • Pirates closer Mark Melancon has been made available, per Heyman. Pittsburgh seems interested in the possibility of cashing him in and re-deploying an arbitration salary that MLBTR projects to land at a cool $10MM. Melancon joins a loaded trade market that is fronted by appealing potential chips such as Aroldis Chapman (Reds) and Craig Kimbrel (Padres) and which could also include Andrew Miller of the Yankees.
  • And that’s not all, as Shawn Tolleson of the Rangers has drawn interest, with Texas said to be willing to listen but not planning to shop the righty. The Phillies seem willing to part with Ken Giles at the right price. Then, of course, there are Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen of the Nationals, either of whom could theoretically be dealt.
  • With teams such as the Yankees and Nationals potentially factoring as both buyers and sellers of late-inning arms, says Heyman, it could end up being a “wild closer’s market.” There are a host of teams with interest in Chapman and Kimbrel. The former is said to be “eminently available” from the Reds, while the latter may not be dealt by the Padres, who Heyman says will not enter a rebuilding phase. As for Miller, New York GM Brian Cashman’s openness to creativity doesn’t mean a deal is likely, with Heyman suggesting a significant player — he suggests the involvement of Stephen Strasburg — would be necessary to pry Miller loose.
  • While he’s only likely to get a make-good deal at this point, Joe Nathan is working his way back and could be ready to throw by May of 2016, Heyman writes. The Tigers would be glad to bring back the soon-to-be 41-year-old on a minor league pact, per the report.
  • While the Astros say they don’t need to do much beside adding left-handed arms to the pen, Heyman says that the club does have a shopping list. If Colby Rasmus departs, a left fielder could be added, while additional relief arms, a starter, and an addition at first base might also be pursued.
  • Heyman also provides a few notes on some players of interest. Free agent second baseman Howie Kendrick is looking for four years. The Pirates are taking offers on first baseman (and DH candidate) Pedro Alvarez. And reliever Steve Cishek will soon become a free agent, as the Cardinals do not intend to tender him a contract.
  • The Mariners still have some work to do after striking an early trade, Heyman writes, with a center fielder and starting pitcher among the needs. Adding to the pen and bolstering the catching corps will also be among the priorities of GM Jerry Dipoto and his staff. Seattle will try to solve its rotation needs by retaining Hisashi Iwakuma, as has widely been reported, with Heyman adding that the club will try to do so with a two-year offer.

Quick Hits: Zito, Giants, Cespedes, Stearns

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Barry Zito tossed an inning in the Athletics’ 5-1 loss to the Astros today, marking his first Major League appearance since 2013.  It wasn’t exactly a triumphant return (Zito allowed a hit, a walk and a two-run homer to Colby Rasmus in his one inning) but it still represented a milestone for the veteran southpaw, who worked his way back to the Show after sitting out 2014 and spending most of this season at Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate.  Here’s more from around the game as we begin a new week…

  • David Stearns was involved in all facets of baseball operations as the Astros’ assistant GM, which Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets was one of the many reasons why the Brewers wanted him as their new general manager.  Stearns’ multi-tasking ability made him the ideal choice as Jeff Luhnow’s lone second-in-command in Houston, as Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle notes that many teams have multiple assistant GMs who oversee different departments.  Stearns’ departure, therefore, leaves the Astros with a big hole to fill.  The Astros have several highly-touted members of the organization who could potentially be promoted to assistant GM, and Drellich notes that promoting from within could help the Astros retain these front office talents before they’re lured away by other clubs.
  • There is some thought in rival front offices that the Giants could bid on Yoenis Cespedes this winter, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (Insider subscription required).  Cespedes would likely be deployed in left, though some time in center field wouldn’t be out of the question if the Giants wanted to keep him playing every day while also finding time for Angel Pagan and Nori Aoki (assuming Aoki is brought back).  It could be a moot point, however, as Olney wonders if Cespedes’ demands for a six-year deal are too rich for the Giants’ liking.
  • From that same piece, a rival executive told Olney “the Giants are the quickest fix” of any of the non-playoff teams.  While San Francisco has some clear needs in the rotation, they have a lot of payroll coming off the books as well as a solid core of proven veterans and controllable younger players.
  • Like most GMs, Alex Anthopoulos uses both analytical and scouting data to inform his decisions, and he gave a bit of insight to Fangraphs’ David Laurila about which methods were used in some recent Blue Jays transactions.  Edwin Encarnacion and Dioner Navarro may have been more inspired by scouting reports, whereas Justin Smoak may have been more of an analytics call.  Both departments endorsed signing Jose Bautista to an extension in February 2011, a contract that has been a major bargain for the Jays.
  • Also from Laurila’s piece, he spoke with Mark Melancon about his development into a star closer with the Pirates after an unsuccessful stint with the Red Sox.  Melancon credits ex-teammate Russell Martin with encouraging him to use his cutter more, and he admitted that he’s satisfied that he was able to prove to his critics in Boston (both within the fanbase and the organization) that he indeed has “the closer mentality.”

Arbitration Roundup: 54 Players Exchange Figures

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With today’s flurry of activities in the books, 144 players have agreed to deals to avoid arbitration for a total spend of $433MM. But that leaves 54 players who have exchanged figures and have ground left to cover before their 2015 salaries are settled. That number is up from last year’s tally of 39, and may point to the possibility that we will see more hearings than the three in 2014 (which was itself up from zero the year before).

MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is a great resource for seeing where things stand. It is fully sortable and even allows you to link to the results of a search. (The MLBTR/Matt Swartz arbitration projections are also quite handy, of course.) Using the tracker, I compiled some broad notes on where things stand in the arbitration process this year.

Remember, deals avoiding arbitration can still be reached even after the exchange of numbers. Hearings will be scheduled between February 1st and 21st, so there is plenty of time for the sides to come together before making their cases.

That being said, some teams are known for their “file and trial” approach to arb-eligible players, meaning that they refuse to negotiate after the exchange deadline and go to a hearing if agreement has not been reached. Among those clubs (the Brewers, Rays, Marlins, Blue Jays, Braves, Reds, and White Sox, per the most recent reporting), there are several open cases remaining: Mat Latos and Michael Dunn (Marlins), Josh Donaldson and Danny Valencia (Blue Jays), Mike Minor (Braves), and Aroldis Chapman, Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier (Reds).

Meanwhile, some other clubs have historically employed the “file and trial” approach on a modified or case-by-case basis: the Pirates, Nationals, and Indians. Among those clubs, the Pirates (Neil Walker, Vance Worley) and Nationals (Jerry Blevins) have open cases, though all of them feature relatively tight spreads.

And there are some other interesting cases to keep an eye on as well. Consider:

  • The Orioles and Royals not only faced off in last year’s American League Championship Series, but find themselves staring at by far the most unresolved cases (six and eight, respectively). They are also the only teams with eight-figure gaps between their submissions and those of their players ($10.85MM and $10MM, respectively).
  • Among the Orioles players, two stand out for the significant relative gulf separating team and player. Zach Britton, who excelled after taking over as the closer last year, filed at $4.2MM while the team countered at $2.2MM, leaving a $2MM gap that is worth nearly 91% of the club’s offer. Even more remarkably, the O’s will need to bridge a $3.4MM gap ($5.4MM versus $2MM) with surprise star Steve Pearce. That spread is 1.7 times the value of the team’s offer and easily beats the largest difference last year (Logan Morrison and the Mariners, 127.3%).
  • Of course, it is worth remembering that first-year arb salaries have added impact because they set a baseline for future earnings. (Each successive year’s salary is essentially calculated as an earned raise from that starting point.) For the Reds, the outcome of their cases with Frazier ($5.7MM vs. $3.9MM) and Mesoraco ($3.6MM vs. $2.45MM) could have huge ramifications for whether the team will be able to afford to keep (and possibly extend) that pair of strong performers.
  • Likewise, the Angels face an important showdown with Garrett Richards, a Super Two whose starting point will factor into three more seasons of payouts. As a high-upside starter, he has sky high earning potential, so any savings will be most welcome to the team. The current spread is $3.8MM versus $2.4MM, a $1.4MM difference that equates to 58.3% of the team’s filing price.
  • Interestingly, the biggest gap in absolute terms belong to Pearce and the Orioles at $3.4MM. After that come Bud Norris and the Orioles ($2.75MM), David Freese and the Angels ($2.35MM), Greg Holland and the Royals ($2.35MM), Dexter Fowler and the Astros ($2.3MM), Eric Hosmer and the Royals ($2.1MM), and Aroldis Chapman and the Reds ($2.05MM).

Of course, plenty of deals already got done today. Here are some of the more notable among them:

  • David Price agreed to a $19.75MM salary with the Tigers that stands as the single highest arbitration payday ever, by a fair margin.
  • Interestingly, the Rays agreed to rather similar, sub-projection deals with all seven of their arb-eligible players. Discounts on Swartz’s expectations ranged from 3.23% to 13.21%. In total, the club shaved $1.525MM off of its tab.
  • The opposite was true of the Tigers, who spent a total of $1.4MM over the projections on just three players. Of course, since one of those players was Price, the commitment landed just 5.2% over the projected total.
  • Detroit’s overages pale in comparison to those of the Cubs, who handed out several of the deals that beat the projections by the widest relative margin and ended up over $2.5MM (14.5%) over their projected spend.
  • The MLBTR/Swartz model badly whiffed (over 50% off) on just three players, all of whom earned well over the projections: Chris Coghlan of the Cubs (78.9%), Carlos Carrasco of the Indians (66.9%) Tony Sipp of the Astros (60%).
  • On the low side, the worst miss (or the biggest discount, depending on one’s perspective) was Mark Melancon of the Pirates, who fell $2.2MM and 28.9% shy of his projected earnings. Danny Espinosa (Nationals) and Chris Tillman (Orioles) were the only two other players to fall 20% or more below their projections. Of course, in the cases of both Melancon and Tillman, Swartz accurately predicted that they would fall short of the model.
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