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Matt Wieters

Orioles Intend To Make Qualifying Offer To Matt Wieters

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The Orioles intend to make a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to catcher Matt Wieters, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). Olney further notes (Twitter link) that the Braves, on paper, seem to be a good fit with Wieters, given their protected first-round pick and lack of certainty behind the plate. Wieters, of course, played his college ball at Georgia Tech and saw longtime teammate Nick Markakis head from Baltimore to Atlanta on last year’s free agent market.

The Orioles, of course, will receive a compensatory draft pick between the first and second rounds of next year’s draft in the event that Wieters rejects the offer and signs with another team. A rival club would have to surrender its top unprotected draft pick (the first 10 picks in next year’s draft are protected) in order to sign Wieters. And, of course, the Orioles are free to pursue Wieters as a free agent even if rejects the offer.

Recent reports have indicated that the Orioles weren’t certain whether or not they’d make the offer to Wieters, but they’ve apparently now made up their minds. The thinking at MLBTR has long been that it’s a logical course of option for the O’s, as a prime-aged catcher that’s represented by one of the more outspoken critics of the QO system Scott Boras, never figured to be the first to accept such an offer. (And if he did, a healthier Wieters at $15.8MM on a one-year deal is probably a good value, anyway.) MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explored the scenario in further detail in recent Offseason Outlook on the Orioles.

Wieters, 29, struggled to some extent in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. As MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes explained in Wieters’ free agent profile, elbow tendinitis kept him on the DL to open the season and delayed his season debut until June. Additionally, he only caught on back-to-back days four times this season as he re-acclimated  himself to the rigors of the position. Nonetheless, Wieters’ 31 percent caught-stealing rate was right in line with his career norm and the surprisingly high league average in 2015 (both 32 percent).

At the plate, Wieters was solid, albeit unspectacular, slashing .267/.319/.422 with eight homers in 282 plate appearances. That batting line translates to a park-adjusted OPS of 100 — exactly league average — which is in line with Wieters’ career marks. (He was off to a much better start in 2014 before tearing the UCL in his throwing elbow.) While league-average production isn’t the most exciting concept in the world, it’s extremely valuable when coming from behind the plate; the league-average catcher in 2015, for instance, hit just .232/.295/.383, leaving them about 14 percent below league-average production.

While Boras and his team could theoretically eye something in the Brian McCann/Russell Martin mold for Wieters this winter, Tim predicted that Wieters can land a four-year commitment worth somewhere in the vicinity of $16MM on an annual basis in a weak market where he looks to be the only reasonably young starting option with a track record of success at the Major League level.

Wieters figures to be one of three Baltimore free agents to receive and reject a qualifying offer, with fellow Boras clients Chris Davis and Wei-Yin Chen serving as much more concrete cases. Other Orioles free agents such as Darren O’Day and Steve Pearce won’t receive the QO, while Gerardo Parra is ineligible to receive one after coming over via trade from the Brewers midseason (though he probably wouldn’t command one anyhow).

Heyman’s Latest: Blue Jays, Wieters, Gordon, Yost, Cespedes

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Here’s the latest from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman:

  • Executives throughout the game hold new Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro in high regard, and they’re surprised that GM Alex Anthopoulos would have the fortitude to walk away from a five-year extension when there don’t seem to be any other similar jobs out there. They do note, however, that the deliberative Shapiro and the fast-thinking Anthopoulos seemed like they might not work together well. The course of their discussions following Shapiro’s hire might demonstrate why — Heyman writes that Shapiro felt like he was being appropriately supportive, while the overworked Anthopoulos might have needed a little more encouragement. With Anthopoulos gone, Shapiro will likely hire assistant GM Tony La Cava, who Shapiro once worked with in Cleveland, as interim GM. La Cava and Indians exec Ross Atkins could be candidates for the permanent position. Manager John Gibbons, meanwhile, will likely return next season.
  • There’s a “decent chance” the Orioles will extend a qualifying offer to Matt Wieters. If they do, they’ll hope he doesn’t accept it, but they might think there’s a good chance he doesn’t, given that Scott Boras is his agent.
  • The Royals would like to keep Alex Gordon and could offer him a four-year deal, although Gordon might be able to get five from another team. The Cubs, White Sox, Astros and Orioles are among the many teams that could be interested.
  • The Royals appear likely to look for an outfielder and a pitcher this winter, although they know they don’t have a chance of re-signing Johnny Cueto. They could also extend the contract of manager Ned Yost after the season, and GM Dayton Moore’s contract could also be a priority. Both are signed through 2016.
  • The Mets appear increasingly likely to allow Yoenis Cespedes to depart via free agency, Heyman writes. The Mets could then focus on spending their available funds on keeping their young pitchers.

East Notes: Anthopoulos, Wieters, Nationals, Chen

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Blue Jays chairman Edward Rogers says the team made a serious effort to keep now-departed GM Alex Anthopoulos, and that Anthopoulos’ role with the team would not have been significantly different following the arrival of new president Mark Shapiro, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet writes. “[J]ust reading a lot of the press, there was a notion that in his renewal offer, somehow his job had changed. His job had not changed at all,” says Rogers. “His direct manager will change, but his breadth of scope and responsibility had not changed. We had full confidence in him.” Rogers notes that the Jays tried to reassure Anthopoulos about their change in leadership by offering him a long-term extension but allowing him to depart after a year if he wanted. “Our notion was let’s try it for a year and see if that would have worked,” Rogers says. Reporting earlier this week indicated that the Jays had promised to give Shapiro final decision-making authority in decisions about player acquisitions and departures. Here’s more from the East divisions.

  • The Nationals have been linked to free agent Matt Wieters, but a source tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko that the team is not interested in signing him. Incumbent Nats catcher Wilson Ramos is coming off a miserable .229/.258/.358 season, Wieters’ agent Scott Boras has plenty of Nationals clients, and the catching market is thin, but it sounds like the Nats could look elsewhere to address the position. Kubatko notes that the Braves are a more logical destination for Wieters, who has a residence in the Atlanta area.
  • It would make sense for the Orioles to pursue a reunion with free agent starter Wei-Yin Chen, but that doesn’t mean they’ll actually be able to re-sign him, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun writes. Chen has been effective, and the Orioles need pitching and likely won’t pursue the very top free agents. The 30-year-old Chen will likely get a five-year deal, however, and the O’s will likely be reluctant to make a commitment of that length. There’s a good chance Chen will end up with a West Coast team.

Free Agent Profile: Matt Wieters

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Once the game’s most-hyped prospect, switch-hitting catcher Matt Wieters has put in six years of Major League service with the Orioles.  After five-plus years as a very good, durable backstop, Wieters missed a year due to Tommy John surgery and played in 75 games this season.

MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore OriolesStrengths/Pros

Wieters is an above average hitter for a catcher.  In 2015, the average catcher hit .238/.302/.376 with a Weighted Runs Created Plus of 85.  Wieters hit .267/.319/.422 with a wRC+ of 100.  He displayed a league average bat, even though catchers generally hit significantly worse.  He has shown good pop, leading all catchers with 67 home runs from 2011-13.  Wieters made the All-Star team twice in that span, and again in 2014 after a 26-game hot start to that season.

Defensively, Wieters has been among the game’s best at preventing stolen bases.  The stat Stolen Base Runs Saved credits catchers for throwing out runners and preventing them from attempting to steal in the first place, and Wieters led all of baseball from 2011-13.  The simpler version of this is caught stealing percentage, and Wieters was among the top four qualified catchers in each of 2011-13 seasons.  Wieters has also been one of baseball’s best at blocking pitches.  He won Gold Glove awards in 2011 and ’12.

As with Justin Upton, it feels like Wieters may not have reached his ceiling.  The Orioles drafted Wieters fifth overall in 2007, and his 2009 big league debut was highly anticipated.  In 2008, Baseball America wrote that Wieters had “the makings of a legitimate star,” a switch-hitter with plus bat speed, good plate discipline and pitch recognition, and excellent defense including plus-plus arm strength.  He doesn’t turn 30 until May, and is easily the best free agent catcher.

Weaknesses/Cons

From 2011-13, Wieters caught 3,539 2/3 innings, the most in baseball.  The ability to catch more than 140 games per season would be considered a huge positive, but as Wieters heads into free agency, we have to question how many innings behind the plate he can handle for the next several years.  Wieters’ 2014 season ended on May 10th with elbow soreness, and he had Tommy John surgery in June of that year.  Though he was at one point on track to be ready for Opening Day, Wieters experienced elbow tendinitis in March and started the year on the DL.  His season debut came on June 5th.

From the day of Wieters’ season debut, he started at catcher for 55 of the team’s 109 games.  He battled a hamstring strain in August and a wrist injury in September.  Still, there was no point this season where Wieters was used like a regular catcher by the Orioles.  As Mark Brown of Camden Chat pointed out, he only caught on consecutive days four times this year.   He’s not a good enough hitter for significant time at DH or first base to be appealing as part of a long-term contract, as it was with Brian McCann.  In a given year, anywhere from 11-18 catchers get at least 900 innings behind the dish, and a team giving a multiyear pact to Wieters will need confidence he can do that.

Exploring the question of Wieters’ ability to stay behind the plate long-term, one must consider his massive size.  He is literally the only regular catcher in baseball history who is 6’5″ and 230 pounds.  Dropping the weight requirement to 220 gives a list of five total catchers (including Wieters himself).  One of those is Joe Mauer, who was done catching by age 31 due to a lengthy history of concussions as well as back and leg injuries.

Looking at Wieters’ pitch framing data at StatCorner, he’s below average at getting pitches outside of the zone called strikes for his pitchers.  The stat is called oStr%, and Wieters was the worst in baseball this year among those with a sample of 4,000 or more pitches.  He was below average at this key framing skill from 2012-14 as well.  Also, it’s unclear whether Wieters’ once-vaunted arm is as effective at preventing stolen bases.  He threw out 30.8% of attempted thieves this year, which would  have ranked eighth among qualifiers.

I believe Wieters will receive and turn down a qualifying offer from the Orioles, meaning signing him would require a team to forfeit its first eligible draft pick.  This could present an issue for a team like the Mariners, who probably wouldn’t want to give Wieters a decent-sized contract and also forfeit the 11th overall draft pick.

Personal

Wieters was born in Charleston, South Carolina and resides in Sarasota, Florida with his wife and son in the offseason.  According to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, Matt met his wife while attending Georgia Tech, and they also have a house in Atlanta.  Will Graves of the Associated Press called him a “stoic cornerstone” for the Orioles in 2013, and more recently Connolly wrote, “Wieters’ leadership, steady influence and professionalism has been immeasurable.”  Matt’s father, Richard, was a minor league pitcher for the Braves and White Sox, and as you’d expect, that sparked an interest in the game for Matt.  He remained humble despite huge hype coming out of college and in his minor league career.

Market

Interest in Wieters will vary based on his contract demands and whether he receives a qualifying offer.  I feel making a qualifying offer is a relatively easy “yes” for the Orioles, because he’d be worth $15.8MM on a one-year deal if he accepts.  But why would a 29-year-old catcher, the best free agent at his position, decline his first chance at an open-market multiyear deal without fully exploring the market first?  If all the multiyear offers are unacceptable, Wieters would probably be able to find a one-year deal worth close to $15.8MM in February or March.  In March 2014, Wieters’ agent, Scott Boras, told ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick in reference to Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, “Everybody talks about these players turning down these [one-year] qualifying offers like they’re village idiots. The reason is, they don’t want to be in the same position again next year. If I’m a good player, I’m going to take the prospect of free agency.”

If Wieters becomes a one-year deal guy late in the offseason, opportunistic teams will swoop in, and the door could re-open to the Orioles.  Before then, Boras needs to find a team that loves Wieters’ pedigree, and feels he can be a bargain on a multiyear deal if an offseason of normal rest brings back the durability he once had.  Clubs that could enter the market for a starting catcher include the Rangers, Nationals, Braves, White Sox, Mariners, Twins, Rockies, Angels, and Astros.  Of those nine teams, the Braves, White Sox, and Rockies have protected first round picks.  The White Sox have not historically been involved with a lot of Scott Boras’ free agents, but we can’t rule them out.  The Braves are a legitimate match.  Wieters grew up rooting for the Braves, his father pitched in their minor league system, and he starred at Georgia Tech.  Plus, former Oriole mainstay Nick Markakis joined the Braves last winter, and the team appears to have soured on young catcher Christian Bethancourt.  The Rockies have Nick Hundley in place for 2016, but could see Wieters as a long-term solution behind the plate.

The Nationals are an under-the-radar fit.  They were not happy with Wilson Ramos this year, according to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson, and the team’s management has a well-known strong relationship with Boras.  Meanwhile, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports says the Rangers could take a look at Wieters, but only if he does not receive a qualifying offer.  Surely Boras would appreciate the Orioles choosing not to make a qualifying offer, which would be extremely risk-averse.  The O’s didn’t make a qualifying offer to Markakis last winter, which Mark Brown of Camden Chat theorized may have been a gesture of loyalty from owner Peter Angelos.

Wieters has little competition on the free agent market, but he will be affected by the availability of Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy.  Any of the above teams could make a deal for Lucroy and drop out of the Wieters market.

Expected Contract

I can picture Boras coming out of the gates seeking Russell Martin/Brian McCann money for Wieters, meaning five years and $82-85MM.  I don’t think he’ll get there, but I’m predicting a four-year, $64MM deal, even with a qualifying offer.

Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches.  It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.

“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”

Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities.  Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
  • The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal.  Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked.  Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
  • Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.”  Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal.  Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto.  The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
  • One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM.  In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
  • Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards.  One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness.  At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
  • One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”  Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock.  The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
  • Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch.  The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period.  The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
  • At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill’s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real.  One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
  • Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters.  Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer.  The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.

Heyman’s Latest: Harvey, Murphy, Kennedy, Wieters, Phillies

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Mets righty Matt Harvey and agent Scott Boras took out an insurance policy on the right-hander’s arm, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in his latest Inside Baseball column. The policy covers a mere fraction of Harvey’s overall earning potential, says Heyman, but it does give him a bit of a safety net in the event that his workload following Tommy John surgery leads to future arm complications. Heyman notes that Harvey’s dominant outing in Game 1 of the NLCS “all but obliterated” other teams’ chances of trading for the right-hander, who was lauded by the Citi Field faithful. Never one to pass up the chance for a memorable quote, Boras said of Harvey’s performance on a cold New York evening: “Forget Batman. He’s Mr. Freeze.”

A few more highlights from the column…

  • While multiple reports have indicated that the Mets aren’t planning on giving Daniel Murphy a qualifying offer, one rival GM tells Heyman that they “absolutely have to” extend the QO on the heels of Murphy’s huge postseason. The GM added that Murphy should reject the offer and look to capitalize on the five homers he’s launched since the NLDS got underway.
  • The Padres appear to have interest in a reunion with starter Ian Kennedy, per the report. It’s likely, of course, that there will be competition. As Heyman notes, the 30-year-old righty has sustained the gains in velocity and strikeout rate that he showed last year — in fact, his 9.3 K/9 is second only to David Price among free agents — and has been a reliable source of innings for the last six years.
  • Catcher Matt Wieters will draw some open-market interest from the Rangers, but only if he avoids a qualifying offer. Texas would not have interest in giving up its first-round pick to ink Wieters, says Heyman.
  • The Phillies haven’t yet called Jim Hendry about their open GM seat. He teamed with new Philadelphia president Andy MacPhail with the Cubs. But Heyman writes that the Phils appear to be angling toward younger candidates. Though we haven’t heard much lately on the status of Kim Ng, one source says that she remains in the mix.

Poll: Should The Orioles Make Matt Wieters A Qualifying Offer?

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The Orioles entered the season with a number of important impending free agents. We know Chris Davis will receive a $15.8MM qualifying offer, but it’s less of a certainty with the club’s other two candidates. Wei-Yin Chen is also expected to receive and reject a qualifying offer. As we’ve heard multiple times, most recently from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, the team has yet to decide what to do with Matt Wieters.

Wieters will be entering his age 30 season after a disappointing 2015 campaign. He started 2015 on the disabled list while recovering from Tommy John surgery. While there was an expectation that he could make the Opening Day roster, he was actually held out until June 5. The club decided to wait until he could start multiple days in a row behind the plate before activating him.

He was in the midst of a breakout in 2014 when he went down with the injury. While his .267/.319/.422 line over 282 plate appearances is a big step back from 2014, it’s almost a perfect replication of his career numbers (.258/.320/.423). The intervening injury does make it difficult to judge who Wieters is as an offensive player. His strikeout rate (23.8% K%) actually increased dramatically – five percent higher than his career norm. It’s possible that a normal offseason could restore him to his typical whiff rates. That means more balls in play and more hits.

Catcher defense has become an increasingly important measure. Wieters draws mixed reviews in this theater of work. His catcher framing from StatCorner is largely discouraging. He was worth negative eight runs in part-time work this year. In his last full season, 2013, he graded out at negative 11 runs. On a positive note, he’s good at blocking pitches and has caught roughly one-third of base runners over his career. That includes eight of 26 attempts this season (30.7%).

The word from Heyman is that the Orioles will extend a qualifying offer only if they’re convinced he won’t take it. In other words, they aren’t comfortable committing $15.8MM to Wieters next season. The club does work under fairly tight budget constraints and may be able to make a bigger upgrade elsewhere with that money. MLBTR’s Steve Adams “can’t imagine” the Scott Boras client would accept, but there are probably a few feasible circumstances where it could make sense.

For example, any physical problem that could negatively affect his ability to sign a long term contract might provide impetus to take a qualifying offer. Teams are always wary of losing an early draft pick. If they’re concerned about his health, Wieters could wind up getting the Nelson Cruz treatment. To be clear, there are no reports that Wieters is dealing with an injury, it’s just one potential scenario under which he may accept a qualifying offer.

If we assume he’s healthy, it does seem like Wieters should merit a sizable multi-year contract. That’s including a declined qualifying offer. There aren’t any perfect recent comps, but I do see Wieters as closer to Russell Martin (signed last offseason for five-years, $82MM) than Jarrod Saltalamacchia (signed after 2013 season for three-years, $21MM). Wieters may merit a similar annual value to Martin (about $16MM) over fewer guaranteed season. Unless we’re seriously overestimating his market, it should be a no-brainer for Wieters to decline the qualifying offer.

Let’s turn to the poll. We have a player who looks like a lock to decline a qualifying offer, but the club is putting out indications that they’re worried he’ll accept it. Do they know something we don’t?

Heyman’s Latest: Greinke, Mattingly, QOs, Gordon, Anderson, Hunter

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Jon Heyman of CBS Sports kicks off Friday morning with a pair of columns — the first being a piece on Zack Greinke’s opt-out status and the second being his weekly Inside Baseball column. Heyman writes in the first piece that Greinke will indeed opt out of the remaining three years and $71MM on his Dodgers contract, as has been widely anticipated for the better part of a year. One general manager suggested to Heyman that Greinke will receive, “at minimum,” multiple offers of $125MM over the next five seasons. That GM wagered a guess at the winning bid: $150MM over five years. Heyman notes that while many teams — the Cubs, Giants, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, D-Backs and Rangers, among others — will be in the mix for Greinke this winter, the right-hander enjoyed 2015 with the Dodgers more than he enjoyed his first two seasons, and L.A. will attempt to bring him back. Per Heyman, Greinke didn’t mesh with Josh Beckett and Hanley Ramirez in previous years but had nothing but positive feelings about the 2015 campaign.

Onto some highlights from his second column…

  • There’s no certainty on the job status of Don Mattingly right now despite three consecutive division titles, Heyman writes. Mattingly is well-liked by the new Dodgers front office on a personal level, and the team is pleased with how he handled Andre Ethier’s shift to a part-time role, A.J. Ellis’ shift to a backup role in favor of Yasmani Grandal, and the emergence of Corey Seager over Jimmy Rollins late in the year. Mattingly’s people-managing skills are valued by the Dodgers, even if his in-game tactics aren’t quite as strong. Heyman notes that with the Dodgers unconvinced of Mattingly as their long-term option, they may allow him to interview with other clubs, and both the Nationals and Marlins would show interest.
  • The Orioles are believed to be hesitant to make a qualifying offer to Matt Wieters and will only do so if they’re convinced that he won’t take it. (I can’t imagine a Scott Boras client that plays a premium position in the midst of his prime age doing so under any circumstances.) The White Sox will make a QO to Jeff Samardzija, who will not accept it, as has been suggested multiple times over the past couple of months.
  • Colby Rasmus, on the other hand, is not expected to receive a $15.8MM qualifying offer from the Astros despite 25 regular-season homers and a strong postseason showing. Heyman writes that Alex Gordon will be “a name to keep an eye on” in connection with the Astros this offseason, as the team may look to inject its lineup with more on-base percentage and batting average than the 2015 crop. They’ll also look for more steady production at first and third base this winter after a season of boom-or-bust results from Luis Valbuena and Chris Carter.
  • The Dodgers are set on making a qualifying offer to Howie Kendrick and are also planning on making a QO to Brett Anderson despite his injury history. The latter of the two drew some surprise when Heyman shared it with execs around the league, though as he points out, L.A. is in need of pitching. If Anderson accepts — again, a scenario I find unlikely given his age and strong 2015 results — he’d solidify a spot in the rotation behind Clayton Kershaw. And, I’ll point out, Anderson’s 2016 salary would then check in just $3.4MM north of the $12.4MM he earned in total after receiving a $10MM base salary and earning another $2.4MM worth of innings-based incentives this season.
  • The Twins are willing to pay a premium to bring Torii Hunter back to their clubhouse if he’s willing to take a reduced role. Hunter, though, has been resistant to that idea in the past. He’s not yet decided whether or not he’ll return to the Majors for his age-41 season or call it a career.
  • Other qualifying offer notes from Heyman throughout the column indicate that Padres people have suggested that they’ll make a QO to Ian Kennedy, though rival execs remain skeptical. Current expectation in the industry is that the Mets won’t make a qualifying offer to Daniel Murphy, and the same is true of the Nationals with regard to Denard Span, who suffered through an injury-shortened season. Kennedy and Murphy seem like easy calls to decline the qualifying offer to me, whereas Span is a tougher case due to his age and injuries, which included season-ending hip surgery. I can see a case for Span taking the $15.8MM payday — the initial contract extension he signed with the Twins, after all, was only for $16.5MM guaranteed, though that rose to $25MM after his 2016 option was exercised.
  • The Nationals have received permission from the Giants to interview bench coach Ron Wotus to fill their managerial vacancy. Wotus has coached on the Giants’ Major League staff for the past 17 seasons and is a two-time Minor League Manager of the Year.

Axisa On Qualifying Offer Candidates

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Thirteen players will “definitely” receive a qualifying offer, speculates Mike Axisa of CBS Sports. All told, 50 players are eligible for the qualifying offer (pending a couple expected opt-outs). Axisa believes 20 free agents are likely to be extended an offer, although he believes the case for seven of those players is less than certain. With the value of a qualifying offer now set at $15.8MM, we have a better idea of what clubs must risk in order to gain a compensation pick.

If all 20 of Axisa’s picks were to receive an offer, it would set a new record (previous high: 13 players in 2013). Overall, 34 players have received a qualifying offer in past offseasons. All 34 have rejected it – a sign that clubs are conservative with the offer. Here’s more from Axisa:

  • Interestingly, Axisa counts Orioles catcher Matt Wieters among the locks to receive an offer. However, we learned earlier today that the club may prefer to allocate that money elsewhere – if they believe he might accept the offer. To me, there does seem to be a real chance that Wieters would choose to remain with Baltimore for one more season. Camden Yards is one of the best ballparks for a switch-hitter to improve his value.
  • Of Axisa’s seven players “likely” to receive an offer, Ian Desmond strikes me as a near guarantee. While he had a disappointing 2015 season, his track record should easily support a sizable multi-year offer. I could see him accepting the offer only if he knows an injury has permanently reduced his skill set. Similarly, medical information may be the only cause for the Nationals to pass on issuing an offer.
  • Axisa also reminds us of the 14 players who are no longer eligible for a qualifying offer because they were traded mid-season. The biggest names include David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, and Johnny Cueto. Scott Kazmir and Ben Zobrist were also near-locks for an offer while Gerardo Parra may have played his way into consideration. It’s all moot now.
  • Twelve players have options that are likely to be exercised. Of those, I see Nori Aoki, Joaquin Benoit, and David Murphy as the hardest decisions. All three are team options. As a soon-to-be 34-year-old platoon outfielder, Murphy’s case is easily the most difficult. He’s posted 0.1 fWAR over the last three seasons (1,329 plate appearances) and will be owed $7MM. It’s been speculated that the Angels were at least open to keeping him, but that was before they hired new GM Billy Eppler. Yesterday, we heard the club may prefer to use that money on a “more impactful bat.”

AL East Notes: Wieters, Orioles, Yankees, Hendriks

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Only one World Series has ever ended on a caught stealing, and that rare event took place on this day in 1926.  The would-be base thief?  Of all people, it was Babe Ruth thrown out trying to steal second by Cardinals catcher Bob O’Farrell to end Game Seven and give the Cards their first World Series title.  This was one of a whopping five World Series-deciding games the Yankees have played on October 10 — they clinched victories in 1937, 1951 and 1956, and came up short in 1926 and 1957.

Here’s the latest from the AL East…

  • Will the Orioles issue a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to Matt Wieters?  The Baltimore Sun’s Eduardo A. Encina and MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski each examine that question in separate pieces, as Wieters’ health status and underwhelming 2015 numbers could make $15.8MM too large a price tag for the O’s to potentially pay.  Wieters could take the QO in order to prove his value in 2016 and elevate his free agent stock for next offseason, though no player has yet accepted a qualifying offer (and it could be a particular surprise if a Scott Boras client like Wieters was the first to do so).  If Wieters did accept the QO, Encina notes that he’d be taking up budget room that could prevent Baltimore from re-signing Chris Davis or making another big free agent splash.  “Some in the industry believe the Orioles” are willing to go with a Caleb Joseph/Steve Clevenger catching tandem in 2016 rather than Wieters, Melewski writes, though in not making Wieters a QO, Baltimore would lose the chance at a first-round draft pick as compensation for Wieters signing elsewhere.
  • In another piece from Melewski, he cites Marco Estrada, Doug Fister and Ian Kennedy as possible fits for the Orioles this winter since it’s unclear as to whether the O’s will shop at the top of the free agent pitching market.
  • Brian Cashman will have to “get creative” to upgrade the Yankees given the number of big contracts already on the books, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News writes, such as how the GM added Didi Gregorius and Nathan Eovaldi last winter.  Feinsand also suggests four more ways for the Yankees to improve next year, such as deciding on who plays second base, finding playing time for Greg Bird, signing Justin Upton and staying away from David Price.
  • Liam Hendriks was a member of five different organizations between December 2013 and October 2014 but he has seemingly found some stability as an important member of the Blue Jays bullpen.  The Australian righty talks to Fangraphs’ David Laurila about his move to relief pitching, his increased velocity and the stress of switching teams so often within that 11-month span.
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