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Max Scherzer

Blue Jays Notes: Burnes, Bregman, Scherzer, Varsho, Swanson, Burr

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The Blue Jays were one of the kings of the rumor mill this winter, seemingly linked to just about every notable name on the free agent market.  Corbin Burnes was one of those targets, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale sheds some light on the Jays’ pursuit in his notes column today while also countering his own past reporting on the matter.

Back in December, Nightengale wrote that the Jays and Giants offered Burnes more than the six-year, $210MM he received from the Diamondbacks.  Burnes himself described Arizona’s offer as “by far the best offer that we had,” as Nightengale’s latest report notes that the “Giants’ pursuit of Burnes stopped before it really got started.”  As for Toronto, Nightengale now writes that the Jays’ offer “was not only low, but was 75% deferred.”

While the exact dollar figures aren’t known, it seems possible that the Blue Jays might have technically offered more than $210MM, yet the heavy amount of deferred money involved lowered the contract’s current value to below what Burnes got from the D’Backs.  It should be noted that Burnes’ Arizona deal also involves $64MM in deferrals, and the fact that Burnes can opt out of his deal after the 2026 also impacts the financial structure.

Alex Bregman was another name reportedly on the Blue Jays’ target list, yet Nightengale writes that “they didn’t make a single offer to Bregman, let alone engage with him.”  The Jays entered the offseason without a clear answer at second or third base, so it made sense on paper that Toronto would at least check in on Bregman as a solution to the need at the hot corner.  Instead, the Jays acquired Andres Gimenez to become the new everyday second baseman, and stuck with internal options (i.e. Will Wagner, Ernie Clement) to split time at third base.

One free agent Toronto did sign was Max Scherzer, who inked a one-year, $15.5MM contract.  Unfortunately, the longtime star’s Jays debut ended after just three innings due to continued issues with his right thumb, leading to a trip to the 15-day injured list.  The righty received a cortisone shot just under two weeks ago, and Jays manager John Schneider told Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and other reporters that a fresh set of imaging tests taken Friday didn’t reveal any damage.

While this represents some good news, both the team and Scherzer remain in day-to-day mode as they try to figure out the injury that has now bothered Scherzer for the better part of a year.  Scherzer is playing catch and throwing off of flat ground for now, but has yet to bump up his throwing program to prepare for a return to action.

Moving onto some more injury updates, Daulton Varsho will start playing in full extended Spring Training games this coming week.  Varsho underwent rotator cuff surgery last September and began the season on the 10-day injured list as he continued his rehab work.  Throwing remains the final step in the process, as Varsho has yet to start making full throws from the outfield, but presumably he’ll check that box before returning to proper game action.

Despite his semi-injured status, Varsho still got a good deal of work in during the Jays’ actual Spring Training, as he had 37 plate appearances as a designated hitter.  The fact that Varsho has been able to partake in other baseball activities beyond throwing could mean that it might not take him long to get fully ramped up for his eventual return to the Blue Jays’ active roster.  He’ll still surely need a Triple-A rehab assignment, but it appears as though Varsho is on pace to meet his expected timeline of an IL activation before the end of April.

Erik Swanson is also on the road to recovery after a median nerve entrapment in his right arm led to a season-opening stint on the IL.  Swanson will face live hitters this week and is expected to then start a minor league rehab assignment.  Ryan Burr threw a bullpen session yesterday, in the latest step of his rehab after he also started the year on the 15-day IL due to shoulder fatigue.

Max Scherzer Receives Cortisone Injection To Treat Thumb Injury

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Max Scherzer received a cortisone shot to treat the inflammation in his right thumb, the future Hall of Famer told reporters (including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). The Jays will have a better idea of when he could return after they see how he responds.

Scherzer’s thumb has bothered him back to last summer, when it was linked to some kind of nerve problem in his hand. The injury resurfaced this spring. Scherzer opened the season on the active roster but departed his first start in a Jays’ uniform after three innings and 45 pitches because of lat discomfort. The three-time Cy Young winner said postgame that the thumb was the cause of his other issues. “My arm is making adjustments because of that. That’s a recipe for disaster,” he told reporters on Saturday.

The Jays placed Scherzer on the injured list the next day. It’s a frustrating situation for the righty. Scherzer acknowledged on Tuesday that he has had conversations with doctors about the potential for surgery, but he said they’re “not even close to that” scenario right now (via Hazel Mae). He added that he’s hopeful he can begin playing catch again as soon as Friday.

Toronto has an opening in their rotation around Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Bowden Francis. It initially seemed that Yariel Rodríguez would step into the starting five after beginning the season in the bullpen. Rodríguez has continued working in a leverage role since Scherzer’s injury. He fired a scoreless inning to earn a hold on Sunday. He came on tonight in relief of Berríos and tossed another inning (allowing one run) to pick up his second hold.

The Jays list left-hander Easton Lucas as their probable starter for tomorrow’s series finale against the Nationals. They’ll push Gausman to Friday, giving him six days rest early in the season. They’re off on Thursday but will begin a stretch of 13 consecutive game days between April 4-16. They’ll probably want a fifth starter by the middle of next week.

Tomorrow’s start will be the first in the big leagues for the 28-year-old Lucas. He has 18 1/3 career innings across 14 relief appearances between the A’s, Tigers and Jays. Lucas worked out of the bullpen for all but four of his 38 Triple-A outings last year. He combined for an impressive 2.75 earned run average with a 26.2% strikeout rate over 68 2/3 innings. Lucas worked mostly 1-2 inning stints, but he made a five-inning start during his final Triple-A appearance. He topped out at 2 2/3 frames in a game in Spring Training, so they’ll likely lean heavily on the bullpen behind him tomorrow. Rodríguez, Jake Bloss and non-roster veteran Eric Lauer are alternatives if the Jays want to turn to a more traditional fifth starter next week.

Blue Jays Place Max Scherzer On Injured List

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March 30: The Jays announced today that Scherzer is indeed being placed on the 15-day injured list, with the diagnosis of right thumb inflammation. Left-hander Easton Lucas was recalled from Triple-A in a corresponding move. Per Hazel Mae of Sportsnet, Schneider told reporters that Scherzer is headed to see a hand specialist to find out more about his thumb injury. Either Rodriguez or Lucas appears likely to join the rotation in Scherzer’s stead.

March 29: Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer exited his first start as a member of the Blue Jays after just 45 pitches, and Toronto later announced that his departure was due to soreness in his right lat.

As noted by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, Scherzer battled a thumb issue throughout Spring Training that appeared to be connected to the nerve issue that limited the veteran with the Rangers last season. Throughout camp, Matheson relays that Scherzer indicated that pitching through the thumb issue increased the risk of other injury issues and specifically highlighted his shoulder as a possible area of concern. Scherzer went on to confirm that the issue is related to his thumb, telling reporters (including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet) that after three innings he told manager John Schneider that there was “imminent danger” of a more serious injury if he continued to pitch.

While Scherzer noted that he and the team’s doctors have not yet figured out next steps, it sounds as though a trip to the injured list is likely in the right-hander’s future. As relayed by Matheson, Scherzer at the very least won’t be making his next scheduled start. He was next in line for a start on April 4 against the Mets in New York, though his status for games beyond that has not yet been announced. The veteran noted that he’ll need to get the thumb issue “to 100%” before he pitches again, and expressed frustration over the circumstances while emphasizing the importance of getting his thumb right.

“My arm is making adjustments because of that [thumb injury],” Scherzer said, as relayed by Matheson. “That’s a recipe for disaster.”

With an off-day scheduled for April 3, the Blue Jays won’t need another starter until April 8. That gives Scherzer just over a week to get right before he’d next be needed in the rotation, but it seems possible that the issue will take longer to resolve than that. Should Scherzer require a trip to the IL, Yariel Rodriguez could step into the rotation from the bullpen or the club could consider turning the vacant spot in the rotation over to youngster Jake Bloss. It seems likely the exact length of Scherzer’s absence won’t be available for at least a few days, though it’s possible a decision about the injured list could come early next week given that IL stints can be backdated a maximum of just three days.

Regardless of how long Scherzer ends up missing, the news has the potential to be a huge blow for a Blue Jays club that is attempting to claw its way out of fifth place in a deep AL East division to make it back to the postseason in what could be the final year franchise fixtures Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette spend in Toronto. Scherzer was one of the club’s most notable additions this winter alongside second baseman Andres Gimenez and Anthony Santander, and his addition was made in the hope that he could deepen a rotation that lost Yusei Kikuchi at the 2024 trade deadline.

While the righty has not been the same pitcher who finished top 5 in his league’s Cy Young award voting in seven consecutive seasons from 2013 to 2019 in recent years, he still sports a solid 3.81 ERA over his last 36 starts and looked like a front of the rotation arm as recently as 2022. That was enough to sell the Blue Jays on the idea the veteran could upgrade their rotation as long as he managed to stay healthy, but so far his nagging thumb issue has made that a challenge. After largely avoiding the injured list throughout the vast majority of his career, Scherzer has made just 59 starts over the past three seasons with the Mets and Rangers and now appears on track to miss more time for the Jays.

Ryan Yarbrough Opts Out Of Minors Deal With Blue Jays

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TODAY: Yarbrough has now become a free agent, after being told he wasn’t making the Jays’ Opening Day roster, Davidi reports.

MARCH 21: Left-hander Ryan Yarbrough is going to trigger his upcoming opt-out in his minor league deal with the Blue Jays, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The team has until 1pm Central on Sunday to decide whether or not to add him to the roster. If they don’t give him a spot, he will become a free agent.

Yarbrough is an Article XX(b) free agent, which is any player with at least six years of service who finished the previous season on a major league roster or injured list. Such players have guaranteed opt-out dates on minor league deals signed at least ten days prior to Opening Day. The first of those opt-out dates is five days prior to Opening Day, which will be tomorrow. The others are May 1 and June 1. When a player triggers an opt-out, the club has 48 hours to decide how to respond.

The lefty has carved out a nice career for himself despite a lack of velo or punchouts. He has 768 big league innings under his belt so far, having allowed 4.21 earned runs per nine. His 18.7% strikeout rate is a few ticks below par but his 5.5% walk rate is quite good and his Statcast page shows that his average exit velocity and hard hit rate are regularly among the best in the league. Some of that work has come as a starter, some as a bulk guy behind an opener and some as a more traditional long reliever.

The Jays got a close-up look at him late last year, acquiring him from the Dodgers in a deadline swap for Kevin Kiermaier. Yarbrough tossed 31 1/3 innings over 12 relief appearances with a 2.01 ERA. He lingered on the market unsigned until the middle of February, when the Jays brought him back via a minor league deal. That deal reportedly pays him $2MM if he cracks the big leagues. In Grapefruit League action, he has tossed 6 2/3 innings, allowed three earned runs, with eight strikeouts and one walk.

The Jays project to have a rotation of José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Bowden Francis. If healthy, Max Scherzer would have a spot as well. He’s been dealing with some thumb soreness lately. That doesn’t sound too serious but thumb soreness seemed to be a symptom of a larger nerve problem in his arm last year.

Earlier today, manager John Schneider relayed to reporters that Scherzer will pitch for the Jays against the Twins in Fort Myers tomorrow. Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet was among those to relay the news. The skipper said that Scherzer wanted to make the two-hour bus ride in order to face real major league hitters. His aim is to throw 60 to 65 pitches and be on the roster to start the season if all goes well.

If Scherzer is healthy, then Yariel Rodríguez is likely in the bullpen as the long reliever. If not, then Rodríguez perhaps jumps into that fifth spot. It’s also possible that the Jays would prefer to have Yarbrough as a long man, but with Rodríguez pitching in a more traditional single-inning relief role. He posted a 1.15 ERA in that kind of role in Japan in 2022 but started for the Jays last year, posting a 4.47 ERA.

Perhaps the Jays will hold off making a decision on Yarbrough until they see how Scherzer pitches tomorrow and how he feels the day after. If they decide to add Yarbrough, they will have to make a corresponding move to get him onto the 40-man.

Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images

MLBTR Podcast: Jack Flaherty Back To Detroit, Max Scherzer, And What’s Next For The Padres

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Blue Jays Sign Max Scherzer

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The Blue Jays officially announced their one-year deal with Max Scherzer. The Boras Corporation client reportedly receives a $15.5MM salary with no deferrals and a full no-trade clause.

Scherzer is obviously a legend in the game and a future Hall of Famer. He debuted back in 2008, has almost 3,000 innings in the majors with a 3.16 earned run average, three Cy Young trophies, eight All-Star selections and two World Series rings.

The question is what he has left in the tank at this point. He is now 40 years old and coming off an injury-marred season. He started 2024 on the injured list while recovering from offseason back surgery. Though he recovered from that, he also battled a nerve issue in his hand, shoulder fatigue and a strained hamstring throughout the season. He was limited to just nine starts and 43 1/3 innings.

That obviously creates some concern but Scherzer has been remarkably durable throughout his career. In each full season from 2009 to 2023, he made 27 or more starts and logged at least 145 1/3 innings. From 2013 to 2018, he had six straight seasons of hitting the 200-inning plateau. In short, 2024 was the first season of his career where he missed significant time.

Even though the volume of his output was low, some of the results last year were still decent. He posted a 3.95 earned run average over those nine starts. His 22.6% strikeout rate was a drop for him personally but still around league average, while his 5.6% walk rate was still a very strong mark. His velocity was down as well on his fastball, going from 93.7 miles per hour in 2023 to 92.5 mph last year.

There are obviously some yellow flags in there but it’s of course possible that better health could lead to some better results. It’s a bit of a gamble for the Jays but this is clearly the market rate for a veteran pitcher with some question marks. Each of Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton and Alex Cobb secured one-year deals worth $15MM this offseason. Scherzer symbolically got past that group with an extra half mil.

There are many ways in which Verlander and Scherzer are similar, given their lengthy careers full of accolades. The two have also crossed paths many times, as they were both in the Detroit rotation just over a decade ago, before reuniting with the Mets more recently. Verlander’s 2024 was also injury-marred, though with perhaps some more concerning numbers. His 17 starts and 90 1/3 innings were more than Scherzer managed but Verlander had a 5.48 ERA and his strikeout rate dropped all the way to 18.7%. Verlander is also a bit older, about to turn 42 next month.

Cobb is only 37 but he only managed three starts last year, plus two more in the playoffs, thanks to his own maladies. He also doesn’t quite have the same legendary track record as Scherzer or Verlander. Morton, who is now 41, managed to make 30 starts for Atlanta last year but he seemingly limited his market by having a preference for clubs with spring training sites near his family in Florida.

The Jays have been connected to just about every available free agent this winter. That has included some high-profile position players like Juan Soto, Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, as well as starting pitchers like Roki Sasaki, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes. There were obviously some frustrating misses in there, but the club has had a couple of strikes more recently. In the past three weeks, they’ve added Anthony Santander to their lineup, Jeff Hoffman to their bullpen and now Scherzer to the rotation.

While the Jays may have preferred to get one of those other starting pitchers, Scherzer keeps their commitment short. It also gives the club a very veteran rotation core. Kevin Gausman is 34, Chris Bassitt will turn 36 next month and José Berríos will be 31 in May. Those four are sure to be taking the ball with regularity, as long as they’re all healthy.

If Scherzer avoids the injury bug this year, he’ll upgrade the rotation and could perhaps indirectly upgrade the bullpen as well. Prior to this signing, Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodríguez were projected as the top options for the fourth and final spots in the rotation. Even with Scherzer in the fold, Francis will likely still get a rotation spot. After the Jays traded Yusei Kikuchi at the deadline last year, Francis got a rotation audition and ran with it. He finished out the campaign with 59 innings over nine starts with a 1.53 ERA, 26.5% strikeout rate and 3.3% walk rate. He still has one minor league option but the Jays would surely like to see if he could carry that forward.

That could push Rodríguez into a relief role, something he has done with success before. Last year was his first in the majors and he made 21 starts with decent results. He had a 4.47 ERA, 23.1% strikeout rate and 10.9% walk rate. But prior to signing with the Jays, he was a dominant closer in Japan. In 2022, he made 56 appearances for the Chunichi Dragons with a 1.15 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. He sat out 2023 while attempting to be declared a free agent.

Going into last year, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported that Rodríguez’s contract stipulated he could only be optioned for the 2024 season. The Blue Jays did indeed option him a few times last year but it seems they won’t be able to do so from now on, so perhaps he’ll end up in the bullpen instead. He could compete for a leverage role alongside Hoffman, Yimi García, Chad Green and Erik Swanson.

That would subtract from the rotation depth a bit, but the Jays have a few more options there than they did last year. They added Jake Bloss, who already has a bit of Triple-A and MLB experience, in the aforementioned Kikuchi deal. Adam Macko is on the 40-man roster and should be in Triple-A this year after spending most of 2024 in Double-A. Alek Manoah had internal brace surgery in June and could make a late-season return. Since Scherzer is one a one-year deal and Bassitt is going into the final year of his pact, there are long-term openings for that group if any of them have a good showing in 2025.

RosterResource now sets the club’s payroll at $250MM and and their competitive balance tax number at $273MM. That puts them already well beyond last year’s Opening Day payroll, which Cot’s Baseball Contracts put at $225MM. Their CBT number was over the line in 2024 but they ducked under when their disappointing season lead to a deadline selloff, so they will go into 2025 as “first-time” payors. They are now within striking distance of the third CBT line, which will be $281MM next year. Going over that marker this year would mean their top pick in the 2026 draft would be pushed back 10 spots.

Despite running those numbers up to new heights, it doesn’t appear they are done. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Jays are still interested in Pete Alonso if he doesn’t circle back to the Mets while Keegan Matheson of MLB.com also suggests they should still have some flexibility. Maybe the Jays will add Alonso or someone else, or finally get an extension done with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It’s been a long, frustrating winter for Jays fans but a lot has changed in the past few weeks, perhaps with more to come. Pitchers and catchers report to spring training in about two weeks.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that Scherzer was headed to the Jays. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that it was a one-year deal. Heyman then reported the $15.5MM guarantee. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet first had the lack of deferrals. Heyman had the no-trade clause.

Max Scherzer Hosts Workout For Several Teams

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It’s been a relatively quiet offseason with regard to chatter on future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. The three-time Cy Young winner was limited to nine starts of 3.95 ERA ball for the Rangers in 2024. He missed time early in the year while recovering from offseason back surgery and was also sidelined by a nerve issue in his hand, shoulder fatigue and a strained hamstring. It’s a length list of issues, particularly for a pitcher who turned 40 last summer.

Still, Scherzer has been preparing to pitch in 2025 and recently held a workout for scouts, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. SI.com’s Pat Ragazzo reported recently that the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Red Sox and Cubs were among those who were represented at the showcase. (That’s not necessarily an exhaustive list of teams.)

The Blue Jays have been the team most prominently linked to Scherzer thus far in the offseason, and Feinsand indeed suggests that Toronto has been the most serious suitor for Scherzer. Ragazzo adds that the Mets have “some level of interest” in bringing Scherzer back on a one-year deal. Time will tell whether the right-hander’s recent showcase for scouts drums up any new bidders, but Feinsand quotes one showcase attendee who suggested that Scherzer looked good — not up to his prior Cy Young standards but still “good enough to be an effective starter.”

At least in the 43 1/3 innings Scherzer managed amid all those maladies in 2024, that looked to be the case. In addition to his previously mentioned 3.95 ERA, the right-hander fanned 22.6% of opponents (roughly average) with a terrific 5.6% walk rate. His once-95-mph fastball sat at a career-low average of 92.5 mph in 2024, however, and he dealt with home run troubles for a second straight year (1.65 HR/9 in 2023, 1.45 in 2024). The righty’s swinging-strike rate (14.6%) remained excellent, but most of those whiffs came off the plate. Scherzer’s opponents made contact on 83.1% of swings within the strike zone — his highest level since 2011.

For the Jays, Scherzer wouldn’t need to reprise his status as an ace, however. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios have the top three spots in the rotation. Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez follow, but Francis has minor league options remaining and Rodriguez could move back into the bullpen. Toronto’s pitching depth, in general, is somewhat shaky with Alek Manoah on the mend from elbow surgery and top prospect Ricky Tiedemann missing most of the 2024 season due to injury. Rotation candidates beyond the top five include prospects Jake Bloss and Adam Macko as well as non-roster invitees Adam Kloffenstein and Eric Lauer.

The Mets have a more crowded staff, but president of baseball operations David Stearns is known for hoarding depth. Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, David Peterson, Paul Blackburn and reliever-turned-starter Clay Holmes make up the starting staff right now. Swingmen Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill could get looks, too, as could top prospect Brandon Sproat. Fitting Scherzer into the puzzle is a bit of a challenge, particularly given the 110% luxury task the Mets are facing.

Blue Jays Interested In Max Scherzer

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There hasn’t been much public buzz about Max Scherzer this winter, apart from a report earlier this month that four unknown clubs were showing interest in the future Hall-of-Famer’s services.  The Blue Jays may or may not have been one of those four mystery teams, but Toronto is showing interest in Scherzer now, according to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith.

The Jays have been linked to dozens of free agents this winter, continuing the unofficial “check in on everyone” strategy that general manager Ross Atkins has broadly used over the last five years, since the team’s rebuilding phase was ended when Hyun-Jin Ryu signed a four-year, $80MM contract.  It therefore isn’t surprising that the Blue Jays also have Scherzer on their radar, both because Toronto is looking for rotation help and because Scherzer has some intriguing buy-low potential given his lengthy resume.

2024 was perhaps the least-noteworthy of Scherzer’s 17 MLB seasons, as he pitched a career-low 43 1/3 innings.  Scherzer underwent back surgery last offseason and was expected to miss at least a bit of time at the start of the 2024 campaign while recovering, but subsequent issues with nerve irritation in his triceps, shoulder fatigue, and a hamstring strain resulted in what was pretty close to a lost season for both Scherzer and the Rangers as a whole.

At least the nerve problem seems to have been corrected by a mechanical change, as Scherzer relayed to reporters last September, and Scherzer is now over a year removed from his back procedure.  While the right-hander has generally been quite durable over his long career, it also wouldn’t be a surprise if the long grind of 2878 big league innings has finally caught up to Scherzer now that he has passed his 40th birthday.

Injuries notwithstanding, Scherzer was still able to post a respectable 3.95 ERA last season.  His walk and chase rates were both excellent in his small sample size of 43 1/3 frames, though that great chase rate manifested itself into only a modest 22.6% strikeout rate.  Scherzer also had a 3.77 ERA over 152 2/3 innings with the Mets and Rangers in 2023, which could be a better reflection of what might be reasonably expected from a healthy Scherzer at this late stage in his career — a solid mid-rotation starter who can still dial up some of his old magic every once in a while.

Scherzer and his former teammate Justin Verlander have often been linked together this winter as veteran superstars coming off injury-marred seasons, and Verlander (entering his age-42 campaign) inked a one-year, $15MM guarantee with the Giants two weeks ago.  With Verlander now off the board, more teams could be looking at Scherzer, even if Toronto is the first club publicly cited as a suitor.

While the Blue Jays signed relievers Jeff Hoffman and Yimi Garcia to multi-year deals this winter, the Jays’ last two offseasons have been defined more by the players the team hasn’t signed rather than the players who actually put pen to paper.  Toronto’s high-profile pursuits of Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Roki Sasaki, and several other top-shelf free agents ended with those players all signing elsewhere, creating the impression that the Jays front office can no longer seal the deal with frontline talent.

It hasn’t helped Atkins’ recruiting efforts that the Blue Jays stumbled to a 74-88 record last season, and finished last place in the AL East.  The possible departures of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette into free agency next winter add to the uncertainty over the Jays’ long-term viability as contenders, or even if the team still has enough in the tank to make a rebound in 2025.  “As currently constructed, the Blue Jays might be a tougher sell for” Scherzer, Nicholson-Smith writes, as even if Scherzer’s market might be somewhat limited by his age and recent injuries, he would surely still prefer to play for a contending team if he has options available.

Latest On Max Scherzer

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With the rotation market moving more quickly than the rest of free agency, the number of unsigned starting pitchers is dwindling. Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta and potential reliever conversion Jeff Hoffman are at the top of the class. Beyond that, teams are evaluating pitchers who’ll likely be limited to one- or two-year commitments.

Max Scherzer may be the most intriguing of those short-term targets. The future Hall of Famer was limited to nine starts and 43 1/3 innings during his final season with the Rangers. Scherzer has made clear that he has no plans to retire. He’ll be back for his age-40 campaign in hopes of a healthier, more productive season.

In a live stream for Bleacher Report this afternoon, Jon Heyman suggested that Scherzer is fielding interest from four teams. Heyman indicated that the market “is heating up a bit,” so it’s possible that the three-time Cy Young winner could come off the board in the relatively near future.

Scherzer opened the ’24 season on the injured list as he finished rehab from last December’s back surgery. Nerve irritation in his throwing hand delayed his return until late June. Scherzer made eight starts before going back on the shelf with shoulder fatigue. That kept him out into September. His season concluded after one additional start because of a strained left hamstring.

A pitcher battling multiple injuries, including back surgery, at age 40 is obviously going to raise concerns. Scherzer is only one season removed from starting 30 games and topping 160 innings between the regular season and playoffs. He’d surpassed 170 innings in every full schedule between 2009-21. Until last year, he’d been incredibly durable.

Scherzer remains productive when he’s able to pitch, albeit not at a Cy Young level. He turned in a 3.77 ERA with a 28% strikeout rate between the Mets and Rangers in 2023. Last season, he allowed just under four earned runs per nine with a diminished 22.6% strikeout percentage. Scherzer still got a ton of chases and whiffs on a per-pitch basis though. His 14.6% swinging strike rate ranked fifth among starting pitchers with 40+ innings. Only Blake Snell, Garrett Crochet, Logan Gilbert and Dylan Cease missed bats at a higher rate.

Aside from perhaps Flaherty, Scherzer arguably has the highest ceiling for next season alone of any unsigned starter. There’s also significant risk because of the recent spate of injuries. Scherzer will almost certainly be limited to a one-year contract, so the long-term downside is limited, but he should command a strong salary.

Alex Cobb landed $15MM from the Tigers coming off a season in which he combined for 23 innings between the regular season and playoffs. He recently turned 37 and doesn’t miss bats at anywhere near the rate Scherzer does. It stands to reason that Scherzer and his representation at the Boras Corporation will be aiming to beat Cobb money, perhaps in pursuit of a contract closer to $20MM.

Heyman’s report doesn’t specify any of the teams involved in the bidding. Speculatively speaking, the Braves, Orioles, Blue Jays, Cubs, Nationals and Mets are among the teams that could have some spending room and a desire for a short-term upside play. Scherzer isn’t going to sign with a team that doesn’t have a path to contention, but there are very few truly rebuilding clubs right now. Every team aside from Colorado, Miami and the White Sox may feel they have a path to a Wild Card spot.

Free Agent Faceoff: Max Scherzer/Walker Buehler

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Three years ago today, the results of voting for 2021’s NL Cy Young award were announced. The top of the ballot featured a somewhat controversial battle between the elite rate production of then-Brewers ace Corbin Burnes and the volume offered by Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, with Burnes ultimately taking home the trophy. Finishing just below them in balloting, however, was a pair of hurlers from the playoff rotation that took the Dodgers to the NLCS: right-handers Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler.

Flash forward three years, and things have gone quite well for the first- and second-place finishers for that year’s Cy Young in the NL. Burnes enters this winter as the consensus top free agent pitcher available and could be in line for a guarantee that reaches $200MM, while Wheeler opted against returning to the open market in favor of extending with the Phillies on a three-year, $126MM contract earlier this year and now stands as a Cy Young finalist once again alongside Chris Sale and Paul Skenes. Scherzer and Buehler are also headed into free agency this winter, although neither figures to be in line for a nine-figure guarantee like those of Burnes and Wheeler.

Instead, both hurlers figure to enter the open market hoping to re-establish themselves as front-of-the-rotation talents after facing adversity in recent years. Scherzer and Buehler landed the 33rd and 37th spots on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list this winter, as we predicted one-year deals worth $16MM and $15MM respectively for each player. While both hurlers boast ace-level pedigrees and could wind up signing similar contracts this winter, the pair took different paths to get to this point over recent years and their unique challenges and assets could inform the preferences of prospective suitors.

Scherzer’s struggles in recent seasons have been almost entirely about health rather than performance. After turning in 11 utterly dominant starts for the Dodgers down the stretch following a trade from the Nationals at that summer’s trade deadline, the veteran right-hander’s season came to an abrupt end when he was forced out of Game 2 of the NLCS due to a dead arm after just 4 1/3 innings of work. Scherzer was unable to bounce-back in time to pitch again for L.A. in that series and ultimately departed the club on the heels of their loss to the eventual World Champion Braves in the series.

After landing with the Mets on a three-year guarantee worth $130MM, Scherzer turned in a dominant 2022 campaign for New York but was limited to just 23 starts due to oblique issues. It was the fewest starts he had made in a full season during his career, and his 145 1/3 innings of work, while hardly out of the ordinary for a starter in recent years, was similarly a full-season career low. The right-hander bounced back in terms of volume in 2023, making 27 starts for the Mets and Rangers throughout the regular season, but suffered on the performance front as he posted a somewhat middling 3.77 ERA (112 ERA+) in 152 2/3 innings of work. Those results improved significantly (3.20 ERA, 135 ERA+) down the stretch following his trade to Texas, but much like 2021 Scherzer struggled with injuries late in the season and was hampered during the playoffs, ultimately pitching just 9 2/3 innings total during the club’s championship run.

While Scherzer’s declining volume and production were somewhat concerning, the future Hall of Famer was still clearly among the top pitchers in the sport even as he began to struggle with injury. Over those aforementioned two seasons, Scherzer combined for 50 starts where he posted an excellent 3.03 ERA (133 ERA+) with a 3.49 FIP and a 29.3% strikeout rate in 298 innings of work. That performance was good for 6.7 fWAR, good for 23rd among all starters across those two seasons and sandwiched between the likes of Max Fried and Clayton Kershaw.

Unfortunately for the veteran, however, things took a substantial turn for the worse in 2024 as he suffered from the first truly injury-plagued season of his career. After undergoing back surgery last offseason, Scherzer’s was expected to miss at least the first couple of months of action. That timetable was further delayed by nerve issues, and by the time shoulder fatigue brought his season to an early end in September he had made just nine total starts this season. Those nine starts saw Scherzer pitch effectively, though not close to the ace-level production he had flashed even two years prior. In 43 1/3 innings of work this season, he pitched to a 3.95 ERA with a 4.18 FIP, striking out 22.6% of opponents faced while walking just 5.6%.

Looking ahead to 2025, it’s certainly easy to imagine Scherzer providing high quality production whenever he’s on the field, given the league average results he posted while fighting through injury this year and his pedigree as a three-time winner and six-time finalist of the Cy Young award. With that being said, the veteran will celebrate his 41st birthday in July of 2025, and his increasingly detrimental injury woes in recent years leave plenty of questions about just how many starts Scherzer can be counted on for in 2025, particularly in the postseason given the injury questions he faced in 2023, 2021, and even 2019 with the Nationals.

By contrast, Buehler comes with far fewer questions regarding his overall health. That’s to be expected from a player who is a decade and a day Scherzer’s junior. That’s not to say Buehler hasn’t had health issues of his own, of course, as Buehler had nearly two full calendar years of his career wiped out by Tommy John surgery. Buehler returned to the mound for the Dodgers on May 7 of this year after having last pitched in a major league game on June 10 of 2022. The righty has had few injury woes throughout his career aside from his two career elbow surgeries, with a bout of hip inflammation this year and a rib injury back in 2018 representing the only other significant injuries of his big league career.

With that being said, it’s worth noting that the aforementioned Tommy John surgery was actually the second of Buehler’s pitching career. It’s not uncommon for players to struggle after going under the knife a second time, though some pitchers such as Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon have undergone the procedure twice and gone on to be effective for years following their second surgery. Buehler also averaged 95 mph on his fastball in 2024, an encouraging sign as it’s right in line with his average prior to going under the knife.

That’s not to say Buehler lacks question marks, however. The right-hander’s 2024 season was nothing short of atrocious. He surrendered a 5.38 ERA and 5.54 FIP that were both more than 30% worse than league average by ERA- and FIP-, while his 18.6% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate were both the worst marks of his career since he became a full time player in 2018. While Buehler’s solid 15 innings of work during the playoffs (3.60 ERA, 3.50 FIP) offer some reason for optimism, particularly as he struck out a third of his opponents in the NLCS and World Series, his atrocious regular season results are difficult to ignore. While Scherzer seems to be a reasonable bet to produce when healthy enough to take the mound, Buehler will need to improve his overall production substantially to be an even league average starter next year even as he flashed his front-of-the-rotation upside late in the Dodgers’ championship run this postseason.

If your team was in the market for a bounce-back starter this winter, which would you rather sign? Would you value Scherzer’s strong results and lengthy track record of success when healthy despite his age and injury questions, or would you prefer Buehler’s youth and upside despite his brutal results in 2024?

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