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Padres To Interview Mike Shildt This Weekend

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10:15pm: Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that there’s another former manager on the list: Brad Ausmus. Ausmus managed the Tigers from 2014 to 2017 and the Angels in 2019.

7:39pm: The Padres are going to interview Mike Shildt this weekend for their open managerial position, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic. It was recently reported that the Padres were considering Shildt but were still looking into what happened to conclude his tenure with the St. Louis Cardinals. It would appear that they didn’t find anything distressing enough to cross him off of their list of candidates, based on the fact that the interview seems to be going ahead.

It was just over a week ago that Shildt was surprisingly fired by the Cardinals, on the heels of a 90-win season that ended when they lost the wild card game to the Dodgers. Since then, he’s been repeatedly connected to the Padres position that’s been vacant since Jayce Tingler was fired the previous week.

For his part, Shildt is trying his best to stay tight-lipped about things. On Tuesday, he appeared on SiriusXM’s MLB Network Radio and, when asked about whether he’d been contacted about open positions, said, “There’s been some back channeling.  I don’t want to say anything.  You know, I’m really unclear how to handle it.  I’ve never really been fired from a manager job and been on the open market so I’m not sure how this exactly works, guys.  There’s been some informal conversations but nothing beyond that. Like I said, the good news is the phone has rung, I think there’s going to be opportunities to explore which is exciting.”

Shildt won’t be the only one considered for the job, of course, and Lin reports that there is a belief in the industry that Mike Scioscia “will emerge as a candidate.” Scioscia’s entire MLB managerial history has been with one club thus far, as he managed the Angels from 2000 to 2018. That tenure included a 2002 World Series victory, as well as Manager of the Year honors in both 2002 and 2009. He recently returned to bench boss duties with the United States men’s national team for the Tokyo Olympics, where the club took home silver medals.

Lin also reports that Bruce Bochy is not getting strong interest from his former club. Bochy managed the Friars from 1995 to 2006, before moving up to San Francisco and managing the Giants from 2007 to 2019, a run that included three World Series championships.

Lin adds that Ron Washington and Buck Showalter are “not believed” to be in consideration for the position. It had been reported in recent weeks that Washington was in contention, though that may no longer be the case, if it ever was. Atlanta’s third base coach, Washington can’t interview for any jobs while the club is still alive in the postseason. Showalter, for his part, said he has not been contacted about a managerial job, though that was over a week go.

Regardless of who gets the job, it appears that the decision may come down quickly, as Lin also quotes Padres’ president of baseball operations A.J. Preller as saying that it’s “realistic” to think the hiring process will be done by the general managers’ meetings, which begin in just over two weeks, on November 8th.

Padres Expected To Interview Mike Shildt; Not Planning To Interview Ron Washington

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10:16PM: The Padres do intend to speak with Shildt “are still investigating exactly why he was let go in St. Louis,” Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune tweets.  Acee also adds that San Diego isn’t planning to interview Braves third base coach Ron Washington, who was rumored to be on the Padres’ radar last week.

9:59PM: Mike Shildt might not be out of a job for long, as The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and Brittany Ghiroli (Twitter link) report that the Padres are looking to interview Shildt for their managerial vacancy.  After being fired by the Cardinals just three days ago, Shildt enters a market thin on dugout openings, as the Mets and Padres are currently the only other big league clubs looking for a new manager.

However, Shildt does fit the mold of what the Padres have reportedly been focusing on, as all of the names linked to the search thus far have been experienced Major League managers.  While team chairman Peter Seidler said the Padres wouldn’t necessarily only be looking at former managers, this seems to be the initial direction in what might still be the early days of their search.

Keeping an open mind about candidates is always a good idea since a team never knows what new candidates might suddenly emerge…including Shildt, who seemed as safe as any manager in baseball after leading the Cardinals to a 90-win season.  Since taking over from Mike Matheny in July 2018, Shildt posted a 252-199 record in his tenure in St. Louis, taking the Cards to the postseason in each of the last three years.  After reaching the NLCS in 2019, the Cardinals haven’t made it beyond the initial playoff round, falling to the Dodgers in the wild card game and losing to (ironically) the Padres in the expanded 2020 postseason’s 2020 wild card series.

Details still aren’t exactly clear on the “philosophical differences” (in the words of St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak) that led to Shildt’s dismissal, though it isn’t surprising that the Padres would want to speak with a manager with Shildt’s recent track record.  Since all of Shildt’s experience in pro baseball has come with the Cardinals, he doesn’t have any past connection with Padres president of baseball ops A.J. Preller, thought that also might not be a prerequisite for any hiring.  Considering how Preller’s close friendship with former manager Jayce Tingler may have played a role in San Diego’s reported clubhouse tension over the season’s final weeks, it could benefit the Padres to hire a manager perceived by the players as having some distance from the front office.

Details On The Cardinals’ Firing Of Mike Shildt

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The Cardinals surprised the baseball world when they parted ways with manager Mike Shildt on Thursday, and speculation has only grown about the situation in the subsequent days.  President of baseball operations John Mozeliak cited “philosophical differences” as the reason for the firing, declining to discuss specifics and instead telling reporters (including The Athletic’s Katie Woo) that “where we felt the team was going, we were struggling to get on the same page.  We just decided internally that it would just be best to separate now and then take a fresh look as we enter the new season.”

According to Woo, tensions began to grow between Mozeliak and Shildt around midseason, when the Cardinals were still hanging around the NL Central race but struggling to stay above .500.  Other factors contributing to the rift may have included the Cardinals’ lack of major moves at the trade deadline, the front office’s desire to incorporate more analytics into the team’s day-to-day operations, and “growing controversy between Shildt and his coaching staff over his leadership tactics and communication.”

Shildt will release his first public statement about his firing tomorrow, though he did send a text message to Woo discussing some of these reported issues.  There is “no merit” to the idea of discord with the coaches, Shildt said, though as for the other factors cited, “There is merit (to those factors) but not the entire picture.”

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch adds another possible factor to the list, perhaps based around how “The Cardinal Way” has long been a backbone of the organization’s practices.  “Internally, there had been concern about the absence and ongoing leak of Cardinals-rooted presences,” Goold writes, with some internal dismay over what one source described as “losing tradition” to other clubs.

This stance does seem curious in regards to a managerial change, however, considering that Shildt was himself a longstanding member of the organization.  Shildt was first hired by the Cards as a scout in 2004, and he worked his way up the ladder with various minor league managerial and coaching roles before joining the big league coaching staff in 2017, and then becoming interim manager partway through the 2018 season.

As shocking as Thursday’s firing seemed, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweeted that rival officials had heard around the middle of August that Shildt’s job could be in jeopardy.  St. Louis was still only one game over .500 (69-68) as late as September 7, and though at that point, the Cardinals caught fire.  A team-record 17-game winning streak fueled a 21-4 run over the remainder of the regular season, earning the Cards a berth in the NL wild card game.  Late-season surges were a common theme in all of Shildt’s three-plus seasons as manager, beginning when the Cardinals went 41-28 after his hiring in 2018.

Coaches and veteran Cardinals players declined comment to Goold about the Shildt firing, though Yadier Molina did speak to reporters in Puerto Rico yesterday, saying the news “took me by surprise…We had very good communication.  We went to the playoffs three times in four years.  Maybe there was some problem between him and the management.  I can’t give you reasons, but from what I know inside the clubhouse, there wasn’t any kind of problem.”

Cardinals Dismiss Manager Mike Shildt

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The Cardinals have fired manager Mike Shildt, as first reported by Rob Rains of StLSportsPage (Twitter link). At a press conference announcing the news, St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters (including Jeff Passan of ESPN) the organization made the decision based on “philosophical differences” between Shildt and the front office about the direction of the franchise.

It’s a shocking development, since there was no prior indication Shildt’s job was in jeopardy. Indeed, the broader expectation as recently as last week had been that Shildt and the team would try to work out a contract extension, with his current deal running only through the 2022 season. Instead, the Cardinals will go in another direction in spite of the club’s strong run of play during Shildt’s tenure.

Today’s announcement concludes Shildt’s nearly two decades in the Cardinal organization. The 53-year-old began his career as a scout and minor league coach in the St. Louis system in the early 2000’s, steadily working his way up the organizational ladder. By 2017, he’d earned a spot on the big league coaching staff, and he took over as the major league manager on an interim basis in July 2018 when the club fired Mike Matheny. The team removed the interim tag a month later.

St. Louis won the NL Central and advanced to the NLCS in 2019, Shildt’s first full season at the helm. They finished in second place and lost in the Wild Card round during last year’s shortened season. This year, the Cardinals hovered right around .500 for the first few months before rattling off a miraculous 17-game win streak in September to coast to a Wild Card spot. St. Louis lost to the Dodgers in last week’s Wild Card game and ultimately won just one playoff series during Shildt’s tenure, but the club advanced to the playoffs all three years in which he was at the helm.

While there’s little to quibble with from a results perspective, the front office clearly determined a new voice was needed behind the scenes. While announcing the news, Mozeliak noted that the Cardinals believe they have “quality internal candidates” who could be options to step into the manager’s office, although he declined additional comment when asked whether the team planned to stay internal or look outside the organization for Shildt’s replacement (via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). Mozeliak added that he hoped the rest of the coaching staff would return in 2022, although that’s yet to be determined.

Given the Cardinals’ success under Shildt, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him land another coaching or managerial position elsewhere in the near future. He was named the National League’s manager of the year in 2019 and his teams posted a 252-199 record (55.9% winning percentage) over the past three-plus seasons.

The Cardinals become the third team looking for a new manager this offseason. The Padres fired Jayce Tingler a few days after the end of the regular season, while the Mets announced they would not pick up their 2022 option on skipper Luis Rojas.

Coaching Notes: Cardinals, Pirates, Diamondbacks

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Cardinals manager Mike Shildt won the Manager of the Year award in his first full season at the helm, and he’s taken the club to three consecutive postseason appearances, including a division title in 2019. He’s under contract for just one more season, though St. Louis is likely to explore a contract extension for their skipper, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak considered making some personnel changes on the coaching staff, but they held firm and eventually turned the season around. Now it appears that most of the coaching staff will return, though decisions are still being made about 2022 and beyond.

  • The Pirates will not bring back third base coach Joey Cora, the team announced today, per Jason Mackey of PGSportsNow (via Twitter). The 56-year-old Cora began his Major League coaching career in 2003 on Ozzie Guillen’s staff with the White Sox, where he eventually rose to the level of bench coach. He was the third base coach for the World Series winning team in 2005. His time in Chicago ended after in September of the 2011 season, corresponding with Guillen’s own departure. Cora would joined Guillen’s staff in Miami for 2012. He had been the Pirates’ third base coach since the 2017 season.
  • Pirates’ manager Derek Shelton will need to fill out a couple of positions on his staff for next season, including hiring a new hitting coach following the mid-season firing of Rick Eckstein. The Pirates are likely to hire from outside the organization to fill Eckstein’s spot, per Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic (via Twitter).
  • The Diamondbacks are rethinking the way manager Torey Lovullo builds out his coaching staff, writes The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan. Primarily, Lovullo is looking to better bridge the gap between the Majors and Triple-A, allowing for a more cohesive promotion process for young players. They’ll do so by hiring a number of assistant hitting and pitching coaches, some of whom will themselves split their time between the Majors and Triple-A.

MLBTR Poll: What Should The Cardinals Do With Alex Reyes?

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The Cardinals rotation has featured a series of guest stars and few regulars this season, with 12 different pitchers taking a turn and only 40-year-old Adam Wainwright logging enough innings to qualify. As a group, they’re 13th in the Majors in terms of starters’ innings, and 12th league-wide by measure of ERA (4.02 ERA). By measure of FIP, however, their 4.46 FIP ranks 20th in the game, and if we look ahead to 2022, there’s more than enough uncertainty to make nervous thinkers in Redbird Nation fret.

The five guys currently taking hill turns for manager Mike Shildt have an average age of 36.5, so it’s not a sprightly group. Except for Miles Mikolas, they’re all heading towards free agency at year’s end, too. In fact, of those 12 players who have started a game in 2021, six will be free agents, and John Gant has already been dealt to Minnesota. All of which is to say, the Cardinals have their work cut out for them before Opening Day 2022.

The cupboard isn’t barren, however. For starters, there will be the annual Wainwright retirement question. But with Yadier Molina coming back for one final season, isn’t it almost too perfect for Waino to do anything but follow suit?

Jack Flaherty raises the ceiling of the group, and they’ve made clear that priority one is getting their ace ready for next season, even if that means shutting it down the rest of this year. Dakota Hudson will be an interesting wildcard as he returns from Tommy John. Mikolas is also trying to get healthy, having made just three starts this season. The Cards are on the hook to pay him $17MM in each of the next two seasons, so if the 33-year-old can get healthy, he should have a rotation spot.

Not to mention, any of Jake Woodford, Johan Oviedo, T.J. Zeuch, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, or Angel Rondon could be given a look. There are definitely arms floating around in the organization that could ramp up to earn rotation minutes.

But there’s another familiar name that’s going to be given a chance to win a rotation spot: Alex Reyes.

Reyes turns 27-years-old tomorrow, and the former top prospect is in the midst of an establishing campaign. In what’s really been his first full season in the bigs, Reyes has a 2.50 ERA/3.90 FIP over 57 2/3 innings. His usage has certainly been consistent: of his 55 appearances, 50 of them have finished the game, a mark that leads the Majors. Simply put, he’s gone from a high-ceiling rotation question mark to an All-Star closer.

But next season, Reyes will follow Carlos Martinez in the Cardinal tradition of yo-yo-ing organizational expectations from starter to closer and back again. Let’s be clear, for this season, Reyes is the Cardinals closer and that’s the end of it. But next year is a different story, said Shildt on MLB Network Radio. Reyes will be given the opportunity to compete for a rotation spot in 2022.

Reyes has maintained a starter’s arsenal in the bullpen, throwing his fastball, slider, and sinker with almost equal usage rates. He’s been even more diverse against lefties, mixing in an occasional curveball or change-up as needed. His heater has averaged 96.5 mph, which is right around what he was averaging when he first came up as a starter. It might be, then, that he’d lose a tick or two if spread out to a starter’s workload.

The concern relates to his injury history and whether or not the Cards should risk losing another valuable bullpen arm by risking a move to the rotation. There’s more upside in the rotation, of course, but there’s something to be said for letting Reyes stay where he’s been successful. After all, if there’s a desire to get him more time on the mound, the Cards could ramp up his usage with multi-inning outings instead of making a full-scale switch to the rotation.

However many innings Reyes finishes with this season will be his most in a single year since the 2016 campaign. He threw between 100 and 110 innings from 2014 to 2016, which is pretty typical for a young arm on the rise. Whether one healthy season is enough to make Reyes ready for that kind of workload again is unclear.

As a starter, of course, the hope would be that he’d surpass even those totals. That said, it’s looking like only Wainwright and Kwang Hyun Kim will accumulate more than 100 innings from the Cards’ rotation this season, so there’s space to make an impact even without posting an 150-inning season.

Even tempering expectations, the Cards could expect 40-50 more innings from Reyes if he can stay healthy in the rotation. Considering his injury history, however, it’s tempting to take the money on the table now and settle in with Reyes as the closer of the next few years.

Of course, Cardinal closers haven’t been any more immune to arm injuries than their starters have, so there’s an argument to be made that whichever course they take with Reyes, there’s risk. If that’s the case, why not pursue the upside of a rotation slot?

From the beginning of the year, the Cardinals have maintained that this season would be an opportunity to inch Reyes’ workload closer to that of a starter and look ahead next season. He’s been much closer to a traditional reliever than the multi-inning firearm we might have expected, but he’s still likely to finish with something close to 70 innings.

The last consideration is timeline. Even though this will be Reyes’ first full season in the Majors, he has just two years of arbitration remaining, so it might be now or never to see if Reyes can be a starter before he hits the open market. Two years as a starter might make Reyes too pricey for the Cards, but it might also give them enough certainty to lock him up at the right rate, knowing he could be a starter moving forward.

Wainwright believes Reyes can make the jump, per Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, who provides this quote from Reyes about Wainwright: “He always looks at me and tells me, ‘Hey man, you’re a starter. You know I was there, and I was able to do it. I believe you can. Just those words of encouragement, they make me feel good. And also, they give me the thought. Someone like Adam Wainwright, who has had such a long career here and has been pitching for so long, if he thinks like that of me?”

Let’s give the St. Louis brass some help and point them in the right direction.

(poll link for app users)

Where Should Alex Reyes Pitch In 2022?
Rotation 56.63% (3,068 votes)
Bullpen 43.37% (2,350 votes)
Total Votes: 5,418

Central Notes: Royals, Cardinals, Tigers

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The Royals are placing Brad Keller on the 10-day injured list with a right lat strain, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com (via Twitter). Josh Staumont has returned from the COVID-related injured list to take his roster spot. Keller has reliably taken his rotation turn all season long for Kansas City, totaling 133 2/3 innings across 26 starts (though he was removed from his last start). The quality of those turns hasn’t perhaps been what Keller or the Royals would hope, however, as he owns a 5.39 ERA/4.72 FIP and -0.2 rWAR. Staumont, for his part, spent just one day on the injured list.

Let’s take a spin around the Midwest and see what shakes loose…

  • Carlos Martinez is probably done for the year, per MLB.com’s Zachary Silver (via Twitter). Wade LeBlanc is also questionable to return after feeling some elbow pain in his latest bullpen. If Martinez’s season is truly over, it will have been a disappointing one for the one-time Cardinal ace. Martinez owns a 6.23 ERA over 82 1/3 innings. A 4.76 FIP suggests it might not have quite been the disaster season that those baseline numbers suggest, however.
  • While we’re here, we might as well check in with Jack Flaherty, who is also questionable to return this season. The Cardinals are putting him through a series of assessments now. What matters most is making sure he’s healthy for 2022, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Same story for Ryan Helsley, who will have arthroscopic surgery on his left knee and look ahead to next season.
  • The Tigers released Renato Nunez, per Evan Woodbery of the MLive Media Group (via Twitter). Manager A.J. Hinch suggested that there weren’t enough at-bats to go around in Triple-A for Spencer Torkelson, Aderlin Rodriguez, and Nunez. The Tigers outrighted Nunez a few days ago, and he will now be free to sign anywhere.

Cardinals Await Decisions From Molina, Wainwright

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The St. Louis Cardinals faced a disappointing end to a hard-fought season when they lost games two and three of the wild card round to the San Diego Padres. Now they must turn to the difficult process of winter roster building.

The Cardinals, however, are in the unique position of awaiting decisions from two franchise icons: Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright. Both vets have interest in returning, but no decision has been made. Either or both could still decide to return. In a worst case scenario for Cardinals’ fans, it’s possible the pair could explore a new frontier with another club, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. That seems unlikely, but Molina and Wainwright are intense competitors who have accomplished more-or-less everything they could hope to accomplish in St. Louis.

For the Cardinals’ part, manager Mike Shildt has repeatedly expressed a desire to see the pair return to Jupiter in the spring. Wainwright and Molina have long set the tone in St. Louis, and it’s hard to quantify the impact their departure might have on the club’s culture. The Cardinals had hoped a sort of passing of the torch would take place in 2020, per Goold, but the young players in St. Louis didn’t quite establish themselves in exactly the way the team hoped. Ace Jack Flaherty still has a sky-high ceiling, but in 9 starts, the 24-year-old went just 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA/4.11 FIP. Given the tumultuous nature of the season, that’s hardly a disaster. Still, when push came to shove, it was Wainwright and Kwang Hyun Kim taking the ball in games one and two of the playoffs.

Molina, 38, already outlasted one catcher-of-the-future in Carson Kelly, who was eventually traded to the Diamondbacks as part of the package for Paul Goldschmidt. Andrew Knizner, 25, is the closest to usurping the role now, but it’s not particularly close. If Molina wants to come back, he’ll be back, and he’ll be the starting catcher.

Goold notes that Molina desires to play two more seasons. That certainly makes it seem as if he’ll be back in St. Louis. If Molina returns, chances are greater that Wainwright returns as well. They certainly have a need now that Dakota Hudson will miss the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Cardinals have other options for the rotation – Alex Reyes, Carlos Martinez, Kim, Miles Mikolas, and Austin Gomber – but besides Flaherty, they all come with questions. With Wainwright, the Cardinals know exactly what they’re getting. They’re just waiting for Wainwright to give the word on whether or not they’ll get it in 2021.

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Reynolds, Newman, Cardinals, Goldschmidt, Flaherty

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The Pirates are more likely than not to land outside the playoff picture in 2020, but they’ve not given up the notion of wreaking some havoc on the NL Central this year. To do so, however, Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman will need to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump, writes Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. True enough, Reynolds and Newman came out the gate strong in 2019, posting 3.2 fWAR and 2.4 fWAR, respectively. And yet, teaming their rookie duo with Josh Bell’s breakout bat still only amounted to the 20th-ranked offense by runs scored (758 runs), 19th by wRC+ (92). Beyond these three, the other two Pirates rounding out their top-5 by wRC+ in 2019 now play for different teams (Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson), and the sixth is a pitcher (Steven Brault). Immediately upon the close of 2019, the Pirates had planned to give Brault a go as a two-way player, but with new leadership up and down the organization, it’s unclear what his role will be. Regardless, Jarrod Dyson is the biggest addition made the to position player group this winter. Reynolds and Newman are core pieces of this lineup, and the good news is this: if they do slump in their sophomore seasons, they should have enough leash to find their way back. Let’s jump from the bottom of the NL Central to the top and check in with the reigning divisional champs…

  • As Spring Training games kick off (weather permitting), hitters around the league are putting their offseason swing adjustments to the test. Paul Goldschmidt, Harrison Bader, and Matt Carpenter of the Cardinals will all be deploying tweaked swings to some degree as they seek the kind of offensive consistency that eluded the trio last year, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Goldy was the most successful of the three, but his fortunes at the plate sunk and fell seemingly on a monthly basis, and he never quite settled into the type of season to which he is accustomed. A .260 BA was his lowest mark since 2012 by almost thirty points, and while his power remained decidedly above average, it did drop from the astronomical heights of the couple seasons prior. Still, even in a down year, Goldy produced 16% more offense than average. Any substantive regression to his career norms should be enough to raise Goldy’s stock back to the level of franchise cornerstone where the Cardinals expected him to be when they acquired him for three players and a pick last winter.
  • Unsurprisingly, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt wasted no time in naming Jack Flaherty their opening day starter, tweets Goold. Flaherty drove the Cardinals second half push to 91 wins and their first divisional crown since 2015. Who follows Flaherty in the rotation is a more compelling question for those in Cardinals camp this spring. There are no shortage of options, from rotation holdovers like Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas, to former ace Carlos Martinez, to newcomer Kwang-Hyun Kim. Adam Wainwright will be somewhere in the rotation after a rejuvenating 14-10 season in which he posted a 4.19 ERA/4.36 FIP across 31 starts. The bridge from Flaherty to Wainwright (to Chris Carpenter to Matt Morris) is a tangible reminder of the Cardinals’ institutional success. 2007, Wainright’s first season as a starter, remains the only losing season the Cards have suffered this century (they went 78-84 and finished in third place).

Latest On Cardinals Outfield Situation

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Harrison Bader has claimed the Cardinals centerfield job, per Derrick Goold, Benjamin Hochman, Rick Hummel and Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. If manager Mike Shildt decides to go with the dibs system this spring, Bader will be in excellent shape. Otherwise, he’s going to have to hit to stay the everyday man in center.

President of Baseball Ops John Mozeliak specifically mentioned a desire to see Bader become an “all-fields hitter,” while acknowledging that his offensive floor to remain a starter is lower than most in the game because of his elite defensive abilities. The .650 OPS he finished with in 2019 isn’t going to cut it – thought it’s worth noting that even with the .205/.314/.366 batting line, Bader put together a 2.0 bWAR season in 128 games. 

The final note on Bader is that while the Cardinals have a handful of outfield options, none are suited specifically for center quite like him. That said, prospect Dylan Carlson, whom the Cardinals view as part of the 2020 picture, has spent a decent 43 percent of his minor league starts in center. The 21-year-old Carlson tore through the upper levels of the minors last year, hitting .292/.372/.542 across Double-A and Triple-A as a 20-year-old. Also mentioned, Lane Thomas – acquired in 2017 from the Blue Jays for international spending money – as a possibility for at-bats in center should Bader continue to struggle with the outside breaking ball.

Thomas, 24, played a total of 68 innings in center for the Cardinals in 2019, tearing it up in 44 plate appearances with a .316/.409/.684 small sample burst. In Fangraphs’ January prospect update, Thomas landed as the #8 ranked prospect in the Cardinals system, while Carlson came in at #2, behind only Nolan Gorman. 

Along with Bader, Thomas, and Carlson, Tommy Edman looks like a fan favorite in the making, and he figures to get most of his playing time in the outfield while the Cardinals wait to see if Matt Carpenter bounces back. Even if Carpenter moves full time to the bench at some point, veteran Dexter Fowler enjoyed a bounce back season (of sorts) in 2019, tellingly appearing in 150 games as a clearly trusted veteran.

Read between the lines and it’s hard see how a reunion with Marcell Ozuna makes sense. That said, the Cardinals seem to be at least considering it. Speculatively speaking, the ongoing engagement could signal a willingness on Ozuna’s part to settle for a short-term pact.

Despite the outfielder’s interest in returning, the article notes that Mozeliak declined to answer when asked whether he has remained in touch with the 29-year-old. The Cardinals have enough coverage in the outfield to let Ozuna walk and feel okay about their depth. Besides the five potential outfielders mentioned above (Bader, Thomas, Carlson, Edman, Fowler), the Cardinals can also call on Rangel Ravelo, Tyler O’Neill, Justin Williams, or the recently acquired Austin Dean for outfield at-bats. If there’s a potential weakness in the Cardinals outfield, it’s depth in centerfield, where Ozuna does not help anyhow. Even there, depth is hardly a weakness. Bader and Carlson have immense potential while Fowler provides a veteran floor (though he’s more of a week-by-week stopgap at this point of his career).

Furthermore, payroll estimators peg the Cardinals opening day payroll somewhere between $162MM and $167MM. The low end of that spectrum would match last year’s opening day payroll, which was a franchise all-time high. That doesn’t paint a welcoming environment for a new Ozuna contract. Nor does it, before you ask, make the acquisition of Nolan Arenado’s $26MM contract seem at that likely. That said, if there’s any takeaway from the 500-or-so words above, it’s that Mozeliak and GM Mike Girsch have an eye for contrivance in roster building.

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