These Players Can Exit Their Contracts After 2020
No matter if a Major League Baseball season takes place in 2020, there are certain players who will be in position to decide whether to exit their current contracts next winter. Whether it be by way of an opt-out clause or a mutual option, here’s a look at the players who will be able to choose to take their chances in free agency…
Opt-Outs
Back when the Marlins extended outfielder Giancarlo Stanton on a historic pact worth $325MM over 13 years in 2014, they included a one-time opt-out for next winter. Stanton has put up at least one phenomenal season since he signed that deal – he won the NL MVP and hit 59 home runs in 2017 – but injuries have hampered him on a regular basis. He’s now a member of the Yankees, who acquired him in a December 2017 deal, but Stanton played in just 18 games last season. He’ll still be owed $218MM for seven years after this season, and for at least the time being, it’s very tough to think of Stanton leaving that money on the table to test free agency.
Designated hitter J.D. Martinez, a member of the Yankees’ archrival in Boston, will have two years and $38.75MM remaining on his contract after this season. He’ll be 33 then, and will continue to be someone who’s known as a defensive liability, so should be opt out? It’s up for debate. The big-hitting Martinez remains an offensive standout, but his production last season fell (granted, he did still slash .304/.383/.557 with 36 home runs in 657 plate appearances). He subsequently chose not to opt out after last season, as doing so would have cost him his $23.75MM salary for this year.
One of Martinez’s former Tigers teammates, outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, will also have to choose whether to revisit free agency next offseason. Castellanos is another defensively challenged slugger, one whom the Reds guaranteed $64MM over four years this past winter. He’ll be 29 by the time the 2021 season rolls around, and by saying goodbye to his Reds pact, he’d be leaving $48MM on the table (including a $2MM buyout in 2024). It’s not easy to determine whether that will happen; some of it depends on how well Castellanos fares in 2020, if a season occurs. Carrying over the tremendous production he posted late last season after the Cubs acquired him from the Tigers may make Castellanos more inclined to try his luck on the market again, but his output at the plate has been more good than great throughout his career.
Mutual Options
For the most part, mutual options don’t get picked up. Either a player’s so effective that he opts for free agency or he’s not useful enough for his team to exercise the option. Rockies first baseman Daniel Murphy and reliever Wade Davis are among those who have mutual option decisions waiting after the season, but they’ve struggled in the club’s uniform so far. With that in mind, Murphy’s on track for a $6MM buyout (as opposed to a $12MM salary), while Davis figures to receive a $1MM buyout instead of a $15MM payday.
Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun ($15MM mutual option, $4MM buyout), Diamondbacks right-hander Mike Leake ($18MM mutual option, $5MM buyout) and Cubs lefty Jon Lester ($25MM mutual option, $10MM buyout) could also find themselves looking for new contracts next winter. The same goes for Mets reliever Dellin Betances, though it’s tougher to say in his case. The former Yankee barely pitched at all season on account of injuries, and if there isn’t a season in 2020, would he turn down a guaranteed $6MM in 2021? And would the Mets buy him out for $3MM? That’s one of the many interesting questions we could face next offseason.
NL Notes: Castellanos, Cubs, Chatwood, Mills, Nats, Ross, Voth
Nicholas Castellanos spoke eloquently about his experience dealing with the Cubs this offseason – which is to say, he experience not dealing with them. And yet, the Cincinnati Red appears to harbor no ill will towards the Cubs. Instead, he offered nuanced insight and thoughtful considerations about the challenges facing ownership, per The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. Said Castellanos, “I don’t know the intricacies of owning a team. The only thing I can speak on when it comes to the Cubs is what a tremendous and incredible soul that organization has when it has life. The only thing I would care about if I owned the Cubs would be to give it as much life as possible. It’s hard, I don’t know what it’s like to own a business.” Polite and diplomatic as he may be, Castellanos does offer an implicit criticism of a Cubs organization that has exhibited, shall we say, less “life” than in years past. Though Castellanos seems to understand and accept why the Cubs made no contact with him after his exit interview, he did wonder broadly about the lack of interest from teams league-wide. Let’s check in on some fifth starter races..
- Cubs’ manager David Ross gives Tyler Chatwood the lead in the race for the Cubs’ fifth starter role, tweets MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. Alec Mills is also a contender for the role, though whoever wins the spot on opening day is likely to keep it until performance dictates otherwise. Ross has no interest in modernizing his approach to the fifth starter role, preferring to let players earn a role in spring training and enter the season thusly, per Bastian. Mills is out of options, but he’s a heavy favorite to land a bullpen spot if he can’t unseat Chatwood for the rotation.
- Joe Ross has pole position to break camp as the fifth starter for the World Champion Washington Nationals, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Austin Voth has pitched well enough to provide a legitimate challenge, but given that both players are likely to make the team, Ross has the track record to give him an edge. He also has the gaudy bullpen ERA to suggest he’s best utilized in the rotation. It’s fair to question the significance of rotation/bullpen splits, but few can boast a Jekyll-and-Hyde routine like Ross’ 2019. The 26-year-old put up an 11.17 ERA over 19 1/3 innings as a reliever, only to counter with a 3.02 ERA in 44 2/3 innings as a starter during the second half. Voth, meanwhile, is more of a late-bloomer at age-27, and he has yet to be tested in a relief capacity. Since making his professional debut in 2013, he has just 3 minor league relief appearances to go with 3 major league appearances out of the pen. Since the right-hander is out of options (as is Ross), Voth is likely to get his first real taste of bullpen life in 2020.
Details On Reds’ Pursuit Of Marcell Ozuna
It’s mostly of historical interest at this point, but the Reds’ pursuit of Marcell Ozuna was perhaps more spirited than was known at the time. The Cincinnati club offered him a three-year, $50MM contract, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
Though it is somewhat unusual for a player to turn down a similar annual salary over a longer term for one on a shorter term, that’s just what Ozuna did. He picked the Braves’ offer of one year and $18MM. Whether the Reds also would’ve considered a single-season arrangement isn’t clear.
For Ozuna, this was a calculated gamble — not unlike the one he took when he spurned the Marlins’ interest in an extension way back when. He’s still just 29 years of age and has shown rather an impressive offensive ceiling (143 wRC+ in 2017).
If Ozuna can turn in another campaign along those lines, he might well earn a much larger contract. Even if not, another solid effort could allow him to take down something close to or even in excess of what the Reds would’ve paid him. At the same time, there’s always risk — especially for a corner outfielder who has endured some shoulder problems and sagging numbers of late.
This bit of information is obviously also interesting because of its impact on the rest of the market. The Reds went on to strike a multi-year pact with Nick Castellanos, promising him $64MM over four seasons in a deal that he can opt out of after either of the first two campaigns.
It’s still a bit unclear how the market interplay between these players unfolded, but it was obviously a major factor. Notably, the Castellanos deal is far more desirable from the player’s perspective than that obtained by Ozuna from the Braves. After all, the former’s contract conveys both the upside of a possible return to the open market as well as long-term security. Unless Ozuna had another reason to prefer Atlanta, it stands to reason that his offer from the Reds did not include such generous opt-out opportunities.
Signing Ozuna cost a draft pick, it’s worth noting, since he turned down a qualifying offer from the Cardinals. He’s also no longer eligible to receive one in the future. The Reds might’ve been more comfortable with the structure they gave Castellanos since he did not cost a pick up front and remains eligible to receive a QO if he opts out (thus carrying the possibility of eventual draft compensation to the team).
Reds’ Contract With Nick Castellanos Includes Annual Deferrals
The deal recently struck between Nick Castellanos and the Reds will include some notable deferrals, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The annual payouts won’t be pushed too far into the future, but will come on a delayed schedule that should assist the team with managing its payroll.
Here’s the full structure of the four-year, $64MM contract, per the report and previously reported information
- 2020: $16MM salary with $10MM payable during season and $2MM payments on January 15, 2021, February 1, 2021 & January 15, 2022
- 2021: $14MM salary with $10MM payable during season and $2MM payments on January 15, 2022 & January 15, 2023
- 2022: $16MM salary with $12MM payable during season and $2MM payments on January 15, 2023 & January 15, 2024
- 2023: $16MM salary with $12MM payable during season and $2MM payments on January 15, 2024 & January 15, 2025
- 2024: $20MM mutual option ($2MM buyout)
Add it all up, and this is the full guaranteed payout schedule for Castellanos:
- 2020: $10MM salary
- 2021: $10MM salary + $2MM (1/15/21) + $2MM (2/1/21)
- 2022: $12MM salary + $4MM (1/15/22)
- 2023: $12MM salary + $4MM (1/15/23)
- 2024: $2MM buyout (or $20MM salary) + $4MM (1/15/24)
- 2025: $2MM (1/15/25)
It should be noted: once earned, a given season’s salaries will still be paid by the team even if Castellanos opts out. He has two opportunities to do so, after each of the first two seasons of the contract. Should he opt out, Castellanos would sacrifice the ability to earn additional money under the contract but not the right to receive the deferred payment for what he had already earned.
This deferral schedule is a bit complicated, but doesn’t wildly alter the value of the contract. By comparison, some other contracts — for instance, Max Scherzer‘s agreement with the Nationals — have pushed the earnings much further into the future and required rather more significant adjustments to assess the true cost of the signing.
Reds Sign Nick Castellanos
The Reds have officially struck a four-year, $64MM pact with free agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos. The Scott Boras client also obtains opt-out opportunities after the 2020 and 2021 campaigns.
Castellanos will be paid in the form of a $16MM salary in 2020, $14MM in 2021 and $16MM salaries in 2022-23. There’s also a $20MM mutual option for a fifth season that comes with a $2MM buyout. Those salaries are impacted by a series of deferrals that alter the payout structure.
This is a fascinating agreement for a variety of reasons. It represents a finishing flourish from Boras, who orchestrated a masterful winter of signings. MLBTR had predicted a four-year, $58MM deal for Castellanos. The young slugger had been the last major free agent left unsigned; attention now will turn to an uncertain but highly interesting trade market. And the Cincinnati organization has now poached a top performer from a division rival — and not for the first time this winter. (This deal matches the guarantee the team used earlier in the winter to lure Mike Moustakas.)
Most of all, it’s a deal that may portend more action to come. The Reds outfield picture is so fully loaded that one or more current players will surely end up out of the frame — perhaps with another organization entirely.
When the Reds added Shogo Akiyama, we noted the resulting roster crunch and wondered whether the club might spin off a younger talent via trade. Thus far, the Reds have only shed Nick Martini. But with Castellanos on board the case for a blockbuster is arguably all the more compelling.
Akiyama and Castellanos figure to command fairly regular playing time. Jesse Winker could take the larger side of a platoon situation. Perhaps Nick Senzel will be included in that group to form a strong four-man primary unit. But that’d mean optioning Aristides Aquino … and figuring out what to do with players like Scott Schebler, Travis Jankowski, Phil Ervin, Jose Siri, and Rule 5er Mark Payton.
Both Senzel and Aquino are potentially intriguing trade candidates, depending upon the Reds’ plans. In the wake of the Castellanos news, it has emerged already that the former is being dangled on the market to some degree.
While we wait to see whether there’s any broader fallout from this move, there’s one takeaway that we can make straight-away: the Reds’ lineup is now rather loaded. Castellanos will presumably slot into the middle of a unit that now features Akiyama and Moustakas along with preexisting stars Joey Votto and Eugenio Suarez.
Castellanos has had some ups and downs but the numbers have been there at the end of each of the past several seasons. He has produced at about 20% north of the league-average rate since the start of the 2016 season. And Castellanos ended 2019 on a tear, mashing out a .321/.356/.646 run in 225 plate appearances with the Cubs.
Could there be more in the tank? A voluminous accumulator of doubles, Castellanos began to find his long ball stroke late last year and could be a breakout candidate in the homer-friendly environs of Great American Ballpark. And he won’t even reach his 28th birthday until March.
On the other hand, there’s some downside that must be considered here as well. Castellanos runs rather well (73rd percentile sprint speed) but has rarely translated that into contributions on the basepaths (-9.8 career BsR) or in the field (-100 career DRS). While the DRS and UZR grading systems both saw some improvement in Castellanos’s glovework in 2019, neither graded him as even an average performer. And Statcast’s outs above average measure placed him in just the 4th percentile leaguewide.
C. Trent Rosecrans and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the deal (Twitter link). Contract details were reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network (links to Twitter), Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (on Twitter), MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon (via Twitter), and ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter).
Report: Reds “Clear Frontrunners” To Sign Nicholas Castellanos
According to a report from Jon Paul Morosi of MLB Network, the Reds are now seen as the “clear frontrunner” to sign free-agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, with Morosi adding that the two sides have made progress in their negotiations over the past few days.
The Giants have also been in contact with Castellanos in recent weeks, per Morosi. The Rangers have also been strongly linked to the 27-year-old. And while Castellanos is decidedly the best slugger left on the market, it could very well be a three-team race for his services; when we explored the best fits for Castellanos last week, we also named the Indians, Cardinals, and Cubs as potential landing spots, but all of those teams have displayed a certain reluctance to splurge on free agents and seem unlikely to do so in this case.
Cincinnati is already looking at a pretty busy outfield mix—especially at the corners, where Castellanos would play—but none of the Reds’ existing pieces can quite match the offensive firepower that Castellanos would add to the lineup. Aristedes Aquino, Jesse Winker, and Phil Ervin are all likely to be deployed frequently in the outfield corners, with Shogo Akiyama and Nick Senzel representing options for the centerfield job.
If indeed the Reds wind up inking Castellanos, two of the aforementioned teams would be doubly hurt by missing out: the Cubs and Cardinals, of course, would have to turn around and deal with the division rival Reds several times every year.
MLBTR originally predicted that Castellanos would earn a four-year, $58MM deal in free agency. There’s still a chance he could reach those numbers, but the one-year, $18MM contract signed by Marcell Ozuna last week might reflect how the industry values Castellanos, whose profile and on-field value resembles that of Ozuna. Castellanos, though, is more than a year younger and doesn’t come with a qualifying offer attached, so signing teams won’t have to worry about surrendering draft pick compensation.
Jon Daniels Discusses Rangers’ Remaining Offseason Needs
Speaking at the Rangers’ “Peek At The Park” fan event on Saturday, GM Jon Daniels gave MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan and other reporters a seeming hint about the club’s offseason direction, stating “I would think that if we do make any significant acquisition, a trade is more likely than a free agent….just the discussions we’ve had make me feel that way.”
Daniels’ comment would seem to diminish the chances of a deal between Texas and Nicholas Castellanos, the top free agent left on the board and a player who has already emerged as a Rangers target. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently detailed, a few teams are speculative fit for Castellanos at this point in the offseason, though all of these clubs seem to have at least one significant obstacle — a crowded outfield, lack of payroll space, etc. — standing in a way of a signing.
Texas arguably has the least-daunting of these positional obstacles, as Castellanos could be installed at first base or in right field, thus relegating either Ronald Guzman or Danny Santana to part-time duty (and Joey Gallo into a primary center field role). It’s possible, therefore, that money could be the holdup in talks. MLBTR projected Castellanos for a four-year, $58MM deal at the beginning of the offseason, though it could be that the Rangers or other teams aren’t willing to meet such a significant multi-year price given the narrowed market for Castellanos’ services. Marcell Ozuna, often considered Castellanos’ closest peer amongst free agent corner outfielders, recently had to settle for a one-year/$18MM pact with the Braves, though Ozuna was also impacted by draft pick compensation via the qualifying offer.
If a big free agent signing isn’t happening, however, that doesn’t necessarily mean the Rangers are set to make a splashy trade for the likes of a Nolan Arenado. While Texas has been linked to the Rockies third baseman on the rumor mill, Daniels called it “unlikely” that a deal would be worked out. Rockies GM Jeff Bridich seemingly put the Arenado rumors to rest earlier this week, only for speculation to re-escalate once Arenado went public with what he felt was “disrespectful” treatment from Bridich in particular and the Colorado organization as a whole.
Offense continues to be the Rangers’ primary target, with Daniels saying that he has had talks with almost every team in baseball about potential lineup acquisitions. Pitching is a lesser concern, as Daniels said that is more apt to add relievers on minor league deals than on multi-year Major League contracts. This might not bode well for the Rangers’ chances of signing Pedro Strop, though Strop wouldn’t necessarily require a multi-year deal.
Texas could also add veteran starters on minor league deals, though Daniels is pretty satisfied with his team’s in-house options, saying “I’d rather go to Kolby Allard than most of the guys who are available to us.” Daniels revealed that the Rangers had interest in signing Jerad Eickhoff before the righty inked a minor league pact with the Padres earlier this month. Eickhoff is a known quantity to Daniels, as the Rangers made Eickhoff a 15th-round draft pick in 2011 before sending him to the Phillies as part of the trade package for Cole Hamels in July 2015.
The Best Fits For Nicholas Castellanos
Stop us if you’ve heard this before: a Scott Boras client is the last high-profile name left in free agency. At this point it’s practically a time-honored tradition for the Boras Corporation to have the last big name standing in free agency. It doesn’t always work in the player’s favor, but even many of those who’ve settled for lesser deals — think Mike Moustakas, Dallas Keuchel and, a few years back, Kendrys Morales — have eventually gone on to cash in on sizable multi-year pacts in future offseasons.
Enter Nicholas Castellanos. Heading into free agency, he was a hotly discussed name due to his youth — he’ll turn 28 in March — and the Ruthian finish he had to the 2019 season. Upon being traded to the Cubs, Castellanos erupted with a .321/.356/.646 slash, 16 homers and 21 doubles in just 51 games (225 plate appearances). He connected on an extra-base hit (16.4 percent) nearly as often as he struck out (20.8 percent). Reactionary takes suggesting that he’d punched his ticket to a nine-figure payday never seemed particularly grounded in reality, but a hefty multi-year deal certainly looked (and arguably still looks) likely.
The longstanding question with Castellanos has been his glovework. Were he even an average defender, even in a corner spot, the $100MM+ some speculated following his Cubs bonanza might’ve been conceivable. But Castellanos came up as a third baseman, moved to right field due to defensive deficiencies and has yet to master his new position. He’s improved, in the eyes of most metrics, going from -19 DRS in 2018 to -9 in 2019, -12.9 UZR to -4.4 and -24 OAA to -7. It’s a step in the right direction, but the consensus remains that he’s a questionable defender.
If he’s able to make similar strides in 2020, that perception might change, and it’s worth noting that Castellanos’ problem lies more in poor jumps than his speed, which is above-average, per Statcast. However, Castellanos and Boras are looking for long-term commitments right now, and signing a shorter-term deal would run the risk of his glovework backing up (or of incurring an injury, declining at the plate, etc.). Betting on himself could prove particularly lucrative, given his age, but that’s not a risk that most players would prefer to take — or feel they should have to take coming off a run at the plate as productive as that of Castellanos.
Over the past four seasons, Castellanos is a .286/.336/.504 hitter (120 OPS+, 121 wRC+), and he’s been even better over the past two campaigns (124 OPS+, 126 wRC+). Castellanos isn’t an especially prodigious home run hitter, but his 104 doubles over the past two seasons are seven more than the next-highest mark in the game. Castellanos has still gone deep 50 times in that stretch — including that 16-homer surge in Chicago. (It’s worth pointing out that he’s been a more productive hitter at Detroit’s Comerica Park than on the road, so the ballpark switch probably wasn’t the primary factor.) He might not be in former teammate J.D. Martinez‘s territory as far as overall offensive output goes, but Castellanos has been one of baseball’s 30 best hitters since 2018.
Perhaps a sign of the times, Castellanos is looking for a long-term deal in the same offseason that his primary market competitor, Marcell Ozuna, took a one-year deal with the Braves. It’s become tougher and tougher for corner bats to land sizable contracts in recent years — particularly if they’re not considered standout defenders. Ozuna landing in Atlanta removed one potential landing spot for Castellanos, and another dried up earlier this winter when the White Sox filled up their lineup by adding both Nomar Mazara and Edwin Encarnacion.
So where can Castellanos look to find work? Let’s run through some of the best remaining fits…
- Rangers: Texas could call its outfield full, citing a left-to-right trio of Willie Calhoun, Danny Santana and Joey Gallo. But Gallo surprisingly proved capable of handling center in 2019, and Santana has traditionally struggled there anyhow. The Rangers could shift Santana to a bench role and play Gallo in center to accommodate Castellanos in right. Alternatively, they’ve reportedly discussed signing Castellanos to play first base (an indictment on his defense in and of itself). President of baseball ops Jon Daniels is clearly in win-now mode as the Rangers move into a new ballpark, and adding Castellanos would cap off an aggressive winter in fashion.
- Indians: Cleveland has shredded its payroll to the point that they’re now projected to have a sub-$100MM payroll and their lowest mark since 2015. They could be looking at their final year with Francisco Lindor in the mix, as owner Paul Dolan has previously signaled that he’s not willing to spend at the level it’d take to lock the superstar shortstop up long-term. The Indians only have $23MM on the books in 2021, and their current corner outfielders will consist of a combination of Jake Bauers, Greg Allen, Delino DeShields Jr., Jordan Luplow, Tyler Naquin, Franmil Reyes (who’ll spend time at DH as well) and Bradley Zimmer. Adding Castellanos would put a better spin on an offseason in which the club parted with Corey Kluber and added Cesar Hernandez and Emmanuel Clase. Then again, Cleveland was also mostly idle last winter even as the Twins made some aggressive moves, and now both Minnesota and the White Sox have significantly ramped up their efforts to win.
- Reds: No one will accuse the Reds of idleness over the past year and a half. They don’t have a clear outfield opening, with newly signed Shogo Akiyama joining Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker and Aristides Aquino in the outfield mix (and several other options on the 40-man roster, including Phil Ervin, Travis Jankowski, Scott Schebler and Jose Siri). But while Aquino exploded with 14 homers in his first 29 MLB games, he followed that up with a catastrophic .196/.236/.382 slash in his second month in the big leagues. He could be optioned to Triple-A, but even then, adding Castellanos wouldn’t leave much room for Winker and his career .285/.379/.466 batting line in the Majors. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted this week that the Reds are “still a player” for Castellanos, adding that they made a “spirited” pursuit of Ozuna. But it’s not clear when in the offseason they made their peak offer to Ozuna, and at this point it seems likely that Cincinnati would need to make a trade to accommodate Castellanos. Perhaps that’s just what the organization has in mind if it is able to reach agreement.
- Cardinals: The Cardinals, admittedly, are more of an on-paper fit than anything else. Owner Bill DeWitt Jr. publicly indicated recently that an additional splash or further increase in the team’s payroll isn’t likely. Still, the Cards lost Ozuna and now look like they’ll rely on Tyler O’Neill and Lane Thomas in left. It’s possible that one or both (or top prospect Dylan Carlson, who also looms in the upper minors) could emerge as a quality big league contributor, but the currently constructed version of the Cardinals’ lineup will carry its share of questions entering the season. For a club intent on defending a division title, that’s not ideal.
- Cubs: The Cubs are said to have loved Castellanos in his short time there — how could you not love that type of production? — but ownership has been steadfast in its reluctance to add to the MLB payroll this winter. The Cubs, stunningly, haven’t signed a single free agent to a guaranteed big league salary. They’re awaiting the resolution of Kris Bryant‘s service time grievance, and many expect them to shop the former MVP once that happens. Perhaps they’ll just happily take the extra payroll space if they’re able to find a deal, but the temptation to sign Castellanos to a backloaded contract would be strong; the Cubs will have Jon Lester, Tyler Chatwood, Jose Quintana and Daniel Descalso all off the books next year. Perhaps Castellanos will already have signed by that point, but if he’s still out there and the Cubs find a way to shed some payroll, a reunion becomes more likely.
- Giants: San Francisco was reported to be interested in Castellanos earlier this winter, and there isn’t exactly anyone standing in the way of Castellanos. Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson project as the primary corner outfielders, but both are more than a year older than Castellanos despite their lack of MLB experience. The only year that Yastrzemski has shown any type of sustained power was in 2019’s juiced ball environment, and Dickerson has totaled all of 101 games between the Majors and Triple-A over the past three seasons. The Giants are rebuilding, but Castellanos wouldn’t cost a draft pick, block significant prospects, or put them near the luxury threshold. At the very least, if he winds up settling on a one-year deal, the Giants could do worse than trying to flip him in July or collecting a pick by issuing a QO at season’s end. However, a multi-year deal for a player still in his prime is sensible so long as the team isn’t in all-out tank mode (which doesn’t seem to be the case based on other offseason moves).
Marcell Ozuna Reportedly Turned Down Multi-Year Offers
Before deciding to take a one-year deal with the Braves, outfielder Marcell Ozuna contemplated much lengthier arrangements with other teams, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links).
On the one hand, this is mostly academic. Ozuna is headed to Atlanta and the prior offers are off the table. On the other, there are actually some interesting forward-looking elements to this report.
First and foremost, it’s notable that Ozuna drew not only three-year but four-year offers, per Heyman. The offered money evidently wasn’t enough to sway the veteran from the $18MM he got for one year with the Braves, but it’s still an indication that the market has some appetite for a longer pact on this sort of player.
That’s probably good news for Nicholas Castellanos and Yasiel Puig. We just ran a poll regarding the former, with nearly four in ten respondents predicting an Ozuna-esque signing and most of the remainder guessing he’d secure much less than had been anticipated in a multi-year pact. Expectations on Castellanos were always tough to set and have continued to waver. But it’s at least somewhat easier to fathom a bigger, lengthier contract given this recent report.
It’s also a generally promising sign for Ozuna himself, who is now slated to return to free agency at the end of the upcoming season. He only just reached his 29th birthday and can certainly anticipate long-term interest the next time around — if he makes good on the prove-it contract he just inked.
Most interesting of all, perhaps, is the involvement of the Reds in the bidding. Long rumored to be kicking around the market for these bat-first corner outfielders, the club’s recent signing of Shogo Akiyama further stuffed its outfield mix and made a further addition seem unlikely. But Heyman says that the Cincinnati outfit “made a spirited try” to land Ozuna with a multi-year deal.
If indeed the Reds had serious interest in Ozuna, it adds to the plausibility of Heyman’s prior reporting on the team’s pursuit of Castellanos. There are abundant options on hand, but perhaps the club simply isn’t satisfied — or has its eyes on adding another piece to help facilitate a trade involving one or more of its existing outfielders. The theoretical possibilities are endless, adding to the intrigue of the remaining corner outfield market.
MLBTR Poll: How Much For Nicholas Castellanos?
Yet another of this offseason’s best free agents exited the board when the Braves reeled in outfielder Marcell Ozuna on a one-year, $18MM guarantee Tuesday. Many high-profile free agents have earned more money than predicted this winter, but Ozuna’s one of the few standouts whose new deal checks in well south of expectations. For instance, MLBTR forecast in November that the former Marlin and Cardinal would come away with a three-year, $45MM guarantee.
With Ozuna no longer available, fellow outfielder Nicholas Castellanos is now unquestionably the No. 1 free agent in baseball. Those two have been closely linked for months, as they entered the winter as the premier unsigned outfielders and have been connected to some of the same teams via the open market. For what it’s worth, MLBTR originally tabbed Castellanos for a four-year, $58MM deal at the outset of the offseason. And as recently as December, the plurality of MLBTR readers who voted in a poll on Castellanos’ earning power said he’d make $55MM to $70MM.
Now, in the wake of Ozuna’s lighter-than-expected payday, perhaps you’re less bullish on Castellanos’ next contract. Age (28 in March) and a lack of a qualifying offer are working in Castellanos’ favor (Ozuna was stuck with a QO), as is his recent track record of above-average offensive production. On the other hand, Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings, initially at third base and then in the outfield, have been written about to death. Furthermore, it’s unclear just how large his market is now. The Braves could have been a fit for him, but they’re out now after signing Ozuna. The Marlins, Diamondbacks and White Sox were part of the Castellanos rumor mill earlier in the offseason, but they’ve addressed their needs in other ways since then. Castellanos was outstanding as a member of the Cubs in the second half of last season, though they’ve shown no willingness to spend a substantial amount on anyone so far this winter. Likewise, the Giants – even though they want to improve their offense – haven’t spent aggressively.
Teams like the Rangers, Cardinals, Reds and some mystery club(s) seem like the most logical suitors for Castellanos at this point. The Rangers have been connected to Castellanos more than anyone else of late, though they reportedly like him more as a first baseman than an outfielder. The Cardinals just lost Ozuna, potentially putting them in the market for a heavy hitter to replace him, but owner Bill DeWitt Jr. indicated this week that they’re all but tapped out from a payroll standpoint. The Reds, though, could arguably still stand to add an established corner outfield bat.
Regardless of where Castellanos plays next, do you expect him to follow in Ozuna’s footsteps and collect a more modest pact than expected? Or will Castellanos eventually become yet another of this offseason’s free agents to cash in big?
(Poll link for app users)
How much for Castellanos?
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$11MM-$19MM 39% (5,197)
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$30MM-$39MM 14% (1,845)
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$40MM-$49MM 14% (1,801)
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$20MM-$29MM 13% (1,660)
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$50MM-$59MM 9% (1,175)
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$60MM or more 6% (846)
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$10MM or less 6% (756)
Total votes: 13,280