Padres Place Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove On 15-Day Injured List
1:18PM: The Padres have announced that both Musgrove and Darvish have placed on the 15-day IL. Musgrove’s injury has been termed as right elbow inflammation and his placement date is retroactive to May 29, while Darvish has a left groin strain and a May 30 retroactive placement date. Vasquez and Logan Gillaspie have been called up from Triple-A.
Darvish lasted only three innings before his hamstring forced him out of his start against Miami last Wednesday, though the injury has now been diagnosed as a groin problem. This could be a new injury stemming from the initial issue, or simply a clearer diagnosis after a couple of days of testing. The Padres listed Darvish day-to-day at first, so it seems possible that Darvish might be back after only 15 days if the injury is somewhat minor in nature.
12:30PM: Joe Musgrove has been scratched from his scheduled start today and will instead be placed on the Padres’ 15-day injured list. According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (X link), Musgrove is again suffering from the triceps tendinitis that already sent him to the IL at the start of May. Right-hander Randy Vasquez was recalled from Triple-A El Paso to take Musgrove’s spot on the active roster and to start today’s game against the Royals.
Somewhat ominously, Acee wrote that Musgrove’s triceps issue “is not believed at this time to be a season-ending injury.” While this is positive news at the moment, the fact that there’s enough uncertainty over this lingering injury that an early end to Musgrove’s 2024 campaign is even a possibility is certainly not a good sign. Even if no structural damage is found, even relatively minor cases of inflammation or tendinitis can lead to lengthy layoffs, if a pitcher simply continues to feel discomfort when throwing.
Musgrove looked pretty good in the two starts since returning from the first IL trip, posting a 2.16 ERA over 8 1/3 frames. After laboring through three innings in his first outing on May 21, he looked much sharper on May 26 when tossing 5 1/3 shutout innings against the powerful Yankees lineup in a 5-2 Padres victory. Considering how Musgrove had a 6.37 ERA in his 41 innings prior to that initial IL visit, it seemed as though he was over his triceps problems and back in his normal form as a frontline member of San Diego’s pitching staff.
Vasquez is a logical fill-in candidate while Musgrove is out, yet Vasquez doesn’t have much big league experience, and his 5.82 ERA over 21 2/3 innings this season indicates that he might not be an ideal choice as a longer-term rotation patch if Musgrove has to miss a significant amount of time. Even beyond Musgrove, Yu Darvish is also dealing with a hamstring injury that forced him out of his last start, and it isn’t yet known if Darvish will be able to make his next start or if he might also need to visit the 15-day IL.
The Padres’ next off-day isn’t until June 13, plus the rotation has some depth question even with Darvish and Musgrove both healthy. Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Matt Waldron have settled into rotation roles, and that trio plus Darvish, Musgrove, and Vasquez have accounted for all of the Padres’ starts this season. Ryan Carpenter or Jackson Wolf could be the top Triple-A depth options, though even accounting for the Pacific Coast League’s hitter-friendly bent, Carpenter’s 8.74 ERA and Wolf’s 6.69 ERA are cause for concern. (Vasquez also has a 7.45 ERA in 19 1/3 innings for El Paso.)
Padres Place Joe Musgrove On 15-Day Injured List
The Padres announced that right-hander Joe Musgrove has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to right elbow inflammation. Righty Randy Vasquez has been called up from Triple-A to take Musgrove’s spot on the active roster and in San Diego’s rotation.
More specifically, Musgrove is suffering from triceps tendinitis, as the Padres told reporters (including The Athletic’s Dennis Lin). Since the IL placement was described as precautionary, it’s possible Musgrove could miss just the minimum 15 days if the triceps issue isn’t overly serious. However, returning to the IL continues a rough stretch of injury-related misery for Musgrove that has now stretched across two seasons.
A broken toe suffered in a Spring Training weight-room accident delayed Musgrove’s 2023 debut until late April, and he was limited to 17 starts after a bout of shoulder inflammation returned him to the IL in late July, and ultimately ended his season. The former All-Star still delivered a 3.05 ERA in 97 1/3 innings between these IL stints, but Musgrove has gotten off to a slow start in 2024.
No pitcher in baseball has allowed more home runs (10) or earned runs (29) than Musgrove this season, as he has lurched to a 6.37 ERA over eight starts and 41 innings. This trouble with the long ball has naturally coincided with a huge drop in Musgrove’s barrels and barrel rate, and his strikeout and hard-hit ball rates are also below average.
It could be that Musgrove’s elbow problem contributed to these struggles, or potentially some lingering affects from his long shutdown period in 2023. Assuming that his injury doesn’t sideline him for too long, this IL visit could be viewed as something of a chance for Musgrove to reboot his season after his time off.
Getting a healthy and effective Musgrove atop the rotation is critical to the Padres’ hopes, as Musgrove being an unexpected weak link has contributed to an overall inconsistent performance for the rotation. Dylan Cease has been tremendous and Yu Darvish has started to stabilize after a tough start of his own, while Michael King and Matt Waldron have both been up-and-down.
Vazquez has also made a pair of starts, delivering a 5.87 ERA in 7 2/3 innings. The 25-year-old right-hander was acquired as part of the Juan Soto trade package from the Yankees this past winter, and it remains to be seen if starting pitching will be his long-term role. Though he has gotten the start in 92 of his 102 professional games, Vazquez hasn’t shown much at Triple-A (5.19 ERA in 95 1/3 career innings) or his 45 1/3 frames in the majors. He’ll get another look in Musgrove’s absence, though the Padres could approach Vazquez’s starts as bullpen games if he can’t deliver a good chunk of consistent innings at the front of games.
Yankees Acquire Juan Soto In Seven-Player Trade
For the second time before his 26th birthday, Juan Soto is on the move. The Yankees and Padres announced a trade sending Soto and fellow outfielder Trent Grisham from San Diego to the Bronx. The Friars receive five players — right-hander Michael King, top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, right-handers Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez, and catcher Kyle Higashioka — in return.
Soto’s time in San Diego concludes after a season and a half. The Padres acquired the star slugger from the Nationals during the summer of 2022 in one of the biggest deadline blockbusters in history. He’d go on to appear in 214 games with the Friars, hitting .265/.405/.488. It wasn’t immediately the smoothest tenure, as Soto was hitting below his established lofty standards down the stretch in ’22 and early this past season. By May, he turned a corner and was back to performing at an elite level.
The three-time All-Star ultimately turned in a .275/.410/.519 line with 35 home runs while playing in all 162 games. He narrowly established a career mark in longballs despite the generally pitcher-friendly nature of Petco Park. Soto’s generational plate discipline remained on full display. Among hitters with 400+ plate appearances, only new teammate Aaron Judge walked more frequently. Soto trailed just the respective league MVPs, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Shohei Ohtani, in on-base percentage. He was one of four hitters to walk more often than he struck out.
It’s what we’ve come to expect from Soto, who now owns a .284/.421/.524 slash over five and a half MLB seasons. He’s on a Hall of Fame trajectory and will immediately step into the middle of the New York batting order. He and Judge now comprise the game’s most fearsome corner outfield tandem. Along with Grisham and Alex Verdugo — acquired last night from the Red Sox — they’re part of an almost completely overhauled outfield in the Bronx.
The trade is a firm win-now strike for the Yankees, the kind of headline-grabbing splash that’s reminiscent of the Bronx Bombers of old. It’s a bold push on the part of ownership and the front office after a fourth-place finish in the AL East.
In all likelihood, Soto is a one-year acquisition. He is in his final offseason of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $33MM salary that would break the all-time record for an arb-eligible player. While the Yankees are likely to inquire with Soto’s representatives at the Boras Corporation about a possible long-term extension, it is widely expected he’s strictly a one-year rental. The three-time All-Star rejected a $440MM offer from the Nationals prior to his trade to San Diego. The price would surely only be higher now that Soto is a season and a half closer to the open market.
The chance to discuss extension figures with Soto’s camp isn’t entirely without value, yet it’s far less important than ensuring he’ll be a Yankee in 2024. Manager Aaron Boone said this morning the Yankees were comfortable playing Judge in center field if necessary. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal thinks the team’s “most frequently used outfield” would indeed feature Judge in center despite the increased injury risk of that position, with Soto in right and Verdugo in left.
Given Giancarlo Stanton’s injury history, the Yankees should also be able to rotate their stars in the DH mix and use the glove-first Grisham in center. Top center field prospect Jasson Domínguez could factor in at some point later in the year after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, while young left fielder Everson Pereira is likely to head back to Triple-A.
Grisham, who recently turned 27, played four seasons in San Diego. The Padres acquired him from the Brewers in a four-player trade after the 2019 campaign. Grisham had an excellent showing in the abbreviated 2020 season but has trended down offensively through the past few years. He was still a slightly better than average hitter in ’21 before falling below that in the last two seasons.
The left-handed hitter has run sub-Mendoza line batting averages in each of those campaigns. The Padres nevertheless stuck by him as their primary center fielder. Grisham has been patient enough to work a fair number of walks and reached double digits in homers for all four years in San Diego. His .191/.300/.347 line going back to the start of 2022 remains grisly, but the walks and serviceable power have been enough to make him a bottom-of-the-lineup regular.
Grisham is a plus defender in center field, annually receiving strong marks from Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average. DRS has rated him 25 runs above average in his nearly 4100 career innings; Statcast has Grisham 30 runs better than par. The glove was enough for the Padres to tender him an arbitration contract projected around $4.9MM. Grisham will go through that process once more before qualifying for free agency after the 2025 campaign.
Between Verdugo, Soto and Grisham, the New York front office has added a trio of left-handed bats within a little more than 24 hours. Early in the offseason, general manager Brian Cashman called it a priority to bring in two lefty-swinging outfielders. There may not be one in the majors better than Soto.
It comes at the cost of a good chunk of their upper level pitching depth and significant cash. The Padres went into the offseason broadcasting a need to cut spending. The Friars had emerged as a surprising behemoth in recent years. Late owner Peter Seidler signed off on repeated sprees that pushed the Friars into the realms of the game’s top spenders. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never been shy about pursuing star talent.
That evidently hasn’t been entirely sustainable over the long haul. With reports of a need to scale back payroll toward the $200MM range to become compliant with MLB’s debt service ratio, speculation about a Soto trade has been rampant throughout the winter. He’d been projected for the highest 2024 salary of anyone on the roster. Yet the short-term commitment made it easier to move Soto for a noteworthy return than it would have been to shed money from a lengthy deal (e.g. Jake Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts or Fernando Tatis Jr.).
With no intention to rebuild, the Padres needed to find a way to bring in rotation help. San Diego had arguably the sport’s best starting pitching last season. With each of Blake Snell, Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha hitting free agency, they were down to essentially Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and a host of unproven options with limited payroll room.
The Yankees obliged, sending a handful of upper level arms. The package is headlined by King, a 28-year-old righty who broke out as a starter late last season. The Boston College product had been an effective multi-inning reliever for the bulk of his time in the Bronx. Reeling with rotation issues late in the year, the Yankees gave King a shot as a starter. They couldn’t have anticipated it going as well as it did.
In his nine starts, King pitched to a 2.23 ERA through 40 1/3 innings. He held opponents to a .243/.284/.355 line while striking out a stellar 31.3% of batters faced. The Yankees gradually built his workload, keeping him to five or fewer innings in all but two of those appearances. King found success in both outings he did work into the sixth, each against the Blue Jays, highlighted by a 13-strikeout performance on September 20.
There’s certainly risk in betting on King to hold up as a starter. This year’s 104 2/3 innings is a personal high at the MLB level, plus King was on the 60-day IL in 2021 and ’22 for a finger injury and an elbow fracture, respectively. The Padres hit on their gamble that Lugo could convert from the bullpen last offseason, though. King held his 94-95 MPH average fastball velocity and mixes four pitches. He has dominated hitters from either side of the plate and owns an overall 2.60 ERA with a 30.6% strikeout rate in 155 2/3 frames since the start of 2022. It’s a gamble, but there’s also significant upside.
The Padres control King for two seasons via arbitration. His earnings have been capped by his career résumé as a non-closing reliever. Swartz projects him for just a $2.6MM salary in 2024. Even if he performs well over a full season as a starter, he’d likely be capped in the $8-10MM range for ’25.
Brito and Vásquez held depth roles in the rotation as rookies in 2023. The former is a 25-year-old righty who worked 90 1/3 innings over 25 outings (13 starts). Brito pitched to a 4.28 ERA overall but fared much better out of the bullpen. He turned in a 1.43 ERA with a solid 24.3% strikeout rate in relief compared to a 6.32 mark with a 16.4% strikeout percentage from the rotation. That could point to a future in long relief, although prospect evaluators generally projected Brito as a possible back-end starter.
Vásquez, 25, posted a 2.87 ERA through his first 37 2/3 MLB frames. His strikeout and walk numbers were more middling. Vásquez also struggled to throw strikes in Triple-A, although he punched out nearly 27% of batters faced in 17 starts at the top minor league level. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and he mixed six pitches (four-seam, sinker, cutter, sweeper, changeup and curveball) in his limited big league time.
Both hurlers still have two minor league options remaining. Neither has yet reached a full year of service. San Diego can control them for at least six seasons. They’re each reasonably valuable trade pieces, but Thorpe is the true secondary piece behind King.
A second-round pick in 2022, the 6’4″ righty was excellent in his first full professional season. Thorpe combined for a 2.52 ERA in 139 1/3 innings between High-A Hudson Valley and Double-A Somerset. He punched out more than a third of batters faced compared to a modest 7.1% walk rate. Baseball America had recently ranked him seventh among Yankee prospects.
According to BA, he sports a deep arsenal headlined by a plus changeup and good life on a 92-94 MPH fastball. He also has plus control and projects as a back-end or better starter. He’ll likely start the season in Double-A, but as an advanced college draftee, it’s not out of the question he’s on the mound at Petco Park sometime next summer. Preller suggested as much in a post-trade press conference this evening.
Rounding out the return is Higashioka, a veteran catcher to back up 25-year-old Luis Campusano. Higashioka had spent a decade and a half in the Yankee organization dating back to his selection in the 2008 draft. He has settled in as a respected #2 presence behind the dish. Higashioka runs bottom of the barrel on-base grades but has reached double digit homers in three straight seasons. He has excellent pitch framing marks throughout his career, although Statcast metrics suggest his typically solid blocking ability plummeted this year.
Swartz projects the 33-year-old for a $2.3MM salary in his final season before free agency. With no cash considerations involved in the swap, the financial elements of the trade are limited to the players’ respective arbitration salaries. King and Higahioka are projected to make a total of $4.9MM; Soto and Grisham will combine for something in the $37.9MM range.
It represents around $33MM in savings for the Padres. Roster Resource projects the Friars around $156MM in actual spending. They’re at roughly $209MM in luxury tax commitments, around $28MM below the base threshold. There’s room for the front office to dip into the middle tiers of free agency. They’ll likely still look for some reliability in the back of the starting staff, a back-end reliever and add at least one outfielder. Tatis could theoretically slide from right to center field, although it’s widely expected they’ll pursue KBO center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Additionally, Preller stated his intention tonight to look to add more starting pitching.
The cost for the Yankees goes well beyond the $33MM difference in arbitration projections. The Yankees were already into luxury tax territory. Roster Resource now projects their CBT mark in the $290MM range, well into the third tier of penalization. The Yankees have paid the tax in each of the last two years, so they’re charged significantly higher penalties as repeat payors.
New York will pay a 50% tax on spending between $237MM and $257MM, 62% on their next $20MM, and 95% for spending between $277MM and $297MM. They’d be taxed at a 110% rate on every dollar past $297MM. The Yankees pretty clearly still need to add a starting pitcher and perhaps a reliever, and it’s worth considering that the cost of those additions would roughly double in 2024 due to the luxury tax – barring payroll subtractions in other places.
In total, today’s trade adds around $24.75MM in expected tax obligations. It amounts to a nearly $58MM investment for what’s primarily one season of Soto’s services and two years from Grisham. The Yankees could recoup a draft choice if Soto walks in free agency next year once he declines a qualifying offer, although that’d fall only after the fourth round because of New York’s CBT status.
Between the huge financial cost and the notable pitching talent, it’s a massive investment. That’s a testament both to Soto’s talent and the Yankees’ all-in approach to turning things around. It will likely be the biggest trade of the offseason and, unlike some blockbusters, it’s between two clubs that fully expect to compete for a playoff spot in 2024. Things are just beginning for both franchises.
Jack Curry of the YES Network reported this morning that a Soto trade was likely. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reported the Padres would receive King, Thorpe and at least two others. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirmed Grisham’s inclusion. Curry had the likely inclusions of Vásquez, Higashioka and Brito. Sherman first reported the deal was agreed upon.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Yankees, Padres Nearing Juan Soto Deal
5:39pm: The Padres continue to evaluate the medical records of the players involved, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.
3:10pm: Curry reported on air that King, Thorpe, Brito, Vasquez and catcher Kyle Higashioka are all likely to be included in the trade (video link). The deal still isn’t quite across the finish line but could be wrapped up this afternoon.
2:42pm: The two sides are still sorting out minor details and reviewing medical information, but Heyman tweets that a deal is expected to be finalized sooner than later. Soto and Grisham are both expected to go to the Yankees.
1:47pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that even after the Yankees’ acquisition of Verdugo, Grisham is still involved in the current iteration of talks between New York and San Diego. He’d be used as a fourth outfielder and late-inning defensive upgrade. His projected $4.9MM salary is a bit steep for that role, particularly when factoring in the associated luxury tax implications, but the Yankees don’t seem too concerned with club payroll at present.
11:20am: The package for Soto is expected to include King and Thorpe, as well as “at least two” other players, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, who adds that a deal is indeed close to being finalized.
8:42am: Talks between the Yankees and Padres regarding star outfielder Juan Soto have continued throughout the night, it seems, and the Yankees have “intensified” their efforts to pry Soto away from San Diego, Jack Curry of the YES Network reports. Curry calls a trade “likely,” noting that pitchers Michael King and Drew Thorpe could both be in play. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that in addition to Thorpe and King, each of Clarke Schmidt, Chase Hampton, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez have all been discussed. Certainly, the Yankees won’t be sending that whole slate of arms, but there’d likely be more to the package than Thorpe and King alone.
A trade sending Soto to the Bronx has been viewed as a possibility for much of the offseason, given the superstar slugger’s projected $33MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), the Padres’ reported need to scale back payroll (while still adding to a perilously thin rotation mix) and the Yankees’ desire for aggressive and broad-reaching changes on the heels of a disappointing season. Prior reporting on the talks between the two parties have been hung up on the Padres insisting on the inclusion of MLB rotation pieces, most notably including King. That Curry mentions King and Thorpe as possibilities to be included in this deal seems to represent an acquiescence of sorts from the Yanks.
If a deal is indeed completed, Soto would be the second outfielder acquired by the Yankees in as many days. New York pulled of an extraordinarily rare swap of note with their archrivals in Boston last night, landing fellow corner outfielder Alex Verdugo from the Red Sox in exchange for a three-player package. Soto and Verdugo would join Aaron Judge in the outfield, resulting in a major overhaul of a group that was a weak point in the Bronx throughout the 2023 season.
Even with Judge in the fold, Yankees outfielders combined for a dreadful .220/.293/.399 batting line last season. The resulting 90 wRC+ suggests that Yankees outfielders were about 10% below average at the plate even with the 2022 AL MVP’s production included. Subtracting Judge from the equation, Yankees outfielders combined to post a catastrophic .214/.247/.365 batting line on the season.
A Verdugo-Judge-Soto outfield would be far more productive and also substantially reduce the Yankees’ strikeout woes; Verdugo fanned at just a 15.4% rate in 2023, while Soto wasn’t much higher at 18.2%. Both Soto and Verdugo are one-year solutions in the outfield, as both are set to become free agents following the 2024 campaign.
Presumably, the Yankees would deploy Judge in center field regularly for the upcoming season, with Verdugo in left field and Soto in right. The Padres and Yankees had previously discussed including San Diego center fielder Trent Grisham in a Soto package, but Heyman tweets that following the acquisition of Verdugo, Grisham is no longer likely to be a part of talks with the Friars. While manager Aaron Boone can’t formally comment on any potential acquisition of Soto, he did acknowledge to The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty and other reporters just now that the Yankees would be comfortable with Judge playing center field every day this coming season.
Roster Resource already projects the Yankees for a payroll north of $245MM and more than $256MM worth of luxury tax obligations. Soto would push those numbers to around $278MM and $289MM, respectively. The Yankees are already effectively at the second luxury-tax threshold, meaning the penalties they face for incorporating Soto’s salary into the fold will be steeper. As a team paying the luxury tax for a third straight season, they’d pay a 62% tax for exceeding by $20-40MM and a hefty 95% surcharge on the next $20MM spent. With regard to Soto, that’d equate to about $24.5MM of penalties on top of his projected $33MM salary.
Of course, further changes could impact that payroll and roster outlook. The Yankees have been prominently linked to star NPB right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto and are viewed as one of the favorites to land him. Even failing that, the Yankees could need to look for outside help in the rotation — particularly if King and/or Schmidt is indeed part of the swap that ultimately nets them Soto. Adding Soto and making a subsequent addition of any real note to the rotation (barring the acquisition of a pre-arbitration arm to plug into the mix) would push the Yankees into the newly created fourth tier of luxury penalization — often referred to as the “Steve Cohen tax” in reference to the crosstown owner of the Mets.
Latest On Juan Soto
Recent reporting on the trade talks between the Padres and Yankees regarding superstar outfielder Juan Soto have indicated that the sides have hit an impasse in their trade discussions. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this morning that the sides haven’t talked since San Diego requested the previously-reported multi-player package centered round right-handers Drew Thorpe and Michael King, though The Athletic’s Brandon Kuty suggests that discussions between the sides are expected to reignite during the Winter Meetings this week.
Kuty goes on to discuss the current state of discussions between the sides, with a few noteworthy updates to past reporting. While San Diego’s proposal was previously believed to be a six- or seven-player package centered around King and Thorpe plus salary relief in exchange for Soto and Trent Grisham, Kuty suggests that the Padres proposed an eight-for-two swap with right-handers Clarke Schmidt, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez all included in addition to King and Thorpe. The other three players in San Diego’s proposal are not known, though Kuty suggests that top prospects Oswald Peraza and Everson Pereira both are “figured to be on the table” in discussions.
The mention of Pereira as a potential piece in a Soto is especially noteworthy as past reporting has indicated that the 22-year-old has not been part of discussions between the sides. The young outfielder has emerged as a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport after slashing .300/.373/.548 in 81 games split between Double-A and Triple-A this season, though he struggled in a 27-game cup of coffee with an anemic .151/.233/.194 slash line in 103 big league plate appearances down the stretch. The inclusion of Pereira as a big-league ready outfield option could make plenty of sense for San Diego, particularly if the club parts with both Soto and Grisham in a deal.
While the specifics of reports on the Padres’ requested return package have conflicted, it’s clear that San Diego is hoping to receive a hefty return with a focus on MLB-ready pitching. What’s more, there’s a clear consensus between reports that the Yankees are particularly hesitant to include King and Thorpe in a package for Soto. Despite the gap between the sides in trade discussions, Kuty notes that restarting talks makes plenty of sense for both sides. The impetus behind a Soto deal for San Diego is the club’s desire to cut payroll, and Soto’s projected $33MM salary (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) limits the number of teams that could realistically fit a deal for Soto into their budget. Meanwhile, Kuty notes that the Yankees are facing considerable pressure to improve after missing the playoffs with an 82-80 2023 campaign.
While Kuty notes that Cody Bellinger is another star-caliber lefty outfielder who the Yankees have interest in, no outfield addition is appealing to the club as Soto. Likewise, Kuty suggests that the Blue Jays represent a potential suitor for Soto if the Padres can’t get a deal done with New York. It’s a suggestion further backed up by SNY’s Andy Martino, who describes Toronto as a “real contender” for Soto, with Heyman adding that right-hander Alek Manoah has come up in discussions between San Diego and Toronto. That said, Martino suggests that the Jays are believed to prefer to wait on a Soto deal until they know whether or not they’ll be successful in their bid for superstar slugger Shohei Ohtani.
Kuty suggests that waiting for Ohtani to make a decision could be a double-edged sword for the Padres. While another superstar-caliber left-handed slugger coming off the board could raise the pressure on interested clubs to acquire Soto, the Padres are likely to attempt to use the savings from a Soto deal to explore the free agent starting pitching market, and waiting to move Soto could leave San Diego with less options on that front. While the free agent market has largely moved slowly to this point in the offseason, the top end of the rotation market has been something of an exception to that rule with Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray having already signed on in Philadelphia and St. Louis, respectively.
Yankees, Padres Reportedly Far Apart In Juan Soto Trade Talks
The Yankees are known to have interest in Padres outfielder Juan Soto but it doesn’t seem as though a trade is close to coming to fruition. Per reports from Ken Rosenthal, Dennis Lin and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Andy Martino of SNY, talks have stalled with a noticeable gap between the two clubs. Heyman says that “at least nine” clubs have checked in, while the report from The Athletic says the Blue Jays are involved.
All the reports indicate that the Padres are asking for a multi-player return, with Martino reporting that the Friars asked for Michael King, Drew Thorpe and four or five other prospects such as Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito, as well as salary relief for Soto and Trent Grisham, who was also in the discussions. He adds that none of Jasson Dominguez, Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres, Austin Wells or Everson Pereira are involved. The report from The Athletic identifies Clarke Schmidt as a target.
It seems there is a disparity in how to value Soto, who is incredibly talented in a vacuum but there are other factors that could diminish his value in a trade. He only just turned 25 years old but has already played in 779 big league games with 160 home runs. He has drawn walks in 19% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 17.1% of them. He has slashed .284/.421/.524 overall for a wRC+ of 154, indicating he’s been 54% better than the league average hitter.
But he is now just one year removed from free agency, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting an arbitration salary of $33MM next year. It is generally expected that signing him to an extension will be extremely difficult, given that he’s about to hit the open market just after his 26th birthday, a uniquely young age for a free agent. The Nationals reportedly offered him an extension of $440MM in July of last year, eventually putting him on the trading block when he rejected it. Since then, he banked $23MM in 2023 and is set to add about $33MM more next year, increasing his earning power as he has moved to free agency. That makes him seen by many in the industry as a one-year rental.
Shortly after that extension was turned down, the Nats were able to trade Soto and Josh Bell for a package of six players: C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, James Wood, Jarlin Susana and Luke Voit. But that was when Soto still had two and a half years of control remaining. Now he is down to one year and his salary has increased to roughly market rate for a star player.
Given the changing circumstances, his trade value should be far lower now than it was when the Padres acquired him. But the Padres still seem to be asking for a significant package of players, seemingly focused on pitching. King still has two years of control whereas Vásquez and Brito each have six. Thorpe is one of the Yankees’ top pitching prospects and hasn’t reached Triple-A yet. From the perspective of the Friars, they think the Yankees are acting like the only suitors, presumably extending offers the Padres consider non-starters.
It’s possible that this is just a classic case of early negotiations, where both sides stake out extremely unreasonable positions and gradually meet in the middle. But both sides also have the option of pivoting elsewhere. The Padres seem to have many other clubs calling, while the Yanks can walk away from Soto and pursue free agents like Cody Bellinger. They are known to be looking for two outfielders, which is presumably why Grisham’s name has been brought up in talks, but the Yanks could always looks elsewhere.
As for the Jays, it’s unsurprising that they are involved. General manager Ross Atkins has admitted that the club is looking for significant upgrades to their lineup, targeting big names like Bellinger and Shohei Ohtani. Like many things this offseason, the ultimate outcome might have to wait for a decision from Ohtani. Recent reporting indicates the Jays are one of the handful of clubs still involved as Ohtani’s market whittles down. But if they end up just missing there, they could call up the Padres and try to get something done for Soto.
Some reports have suggested that the Friars could look to finish a Soto deal as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings, but it might actually be in their best interests to wait. Since nothing is close with the Yankees and the Jays are waiting on Ohtani, the Padres might get a better deal with a bit of patience. Earlier reporting has suggested the Cubs, Giants and Phillies could be involved and there are other speculative fits as well.
Despite Soto’s immense talent, he’s available in trade talks due to the budgetary concerns in San Diego. The club’s payroll for next year is currently estimates by Roster Resource to be around $189MM. Due to aggressive spending in recent years and their loss of broadcast revenue with the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, they are expected to be working with a reduced payroll of around $200MM this year. That means they are almost at their limit before addressing the significant losses to their rotation. Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez reached free agency at season’s end, leaving them with Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and plenty of uncertainty beyond those two.
It appears that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is trying to kill two birds with one stone, moving Soto and his projected to salary to both clear out some payroll space and bring in the pitching they sorely need. Whether he can pull it off will be one of the most interesting storylines to follow in the weeks to come.
Nestor Cortes’ Season In Jeopardy After Second Rotator Cuff Strain
The Yankees announced they’ve recalled right-handers Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez. One roster spot was opened when left-hander Nick Ramirez was optioned to Triple-A yesterday. The other corresponding move is lefty Nestor Cortes landing on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 8, with a left rotator cuff strain.
Cortes told reporters that while surgery isn’t under consideration, he’ll be shut down from throwing entirely for around one month (relayed by Brendan Kuty of the Athletic). Given that timetable, skipper Aaron Boone acknowledged it’s unlikely the southpaw will make it back this season, though the club hasn’t officially ruled him out for the year (via Erik Boland of Newsday).
The ’23 campaign has been exceedingly frustrating for last year’s eighth-place Cy Young finisher. Cortes strained his hamstring in February, knocking him out of the World Baseball Classic and putting him behind the eight ball in his ramp-up. He was able to return by the start of the season but didn’t pitch as well as anticipated through 11 starts. During the first week of June, Cortes suffered a rotator cuff strain that wound up costing him around two months.
He returned from that rehab last weekend but managed only one four-inning outing before the injury resurfaced. Given the month-long shutdown and need to subsequently restart the rehab process, it seems a similar absence could be on the table. With less than two months to go in the regular season, there might not be enough time for him to return to the mound.
Cortes has made 12 starts overall, working to a 4.97 ERA over 63 1/3 frames. It’s a far cry from last year’s 2.44 ERA, though that always seemed likely to regress. Cortes still struck out over a quarter of opponents with a solid 7.5% walk percentage, with a spike in home runs and an uptick in the average on balls in play against him contributing to the less impressive results.
The 28-year-old is playing this season on a $3.2MM arbitration salary. He’ll receive a raise — albeit a fairly modest one — on that next winter and is eligible for arbitration twice more. Even if he can’t make it back this season, Cortes should be a key part of the projected starting staff heading into 2024.
New York’s short-term rotation outlook is far less settled. Injuries have cost Frankie Montas the season to date and shelved Cortes and Carlos Rodón on multiple occasions. Gerrit Cole has been phenomenal and Clarke Schmidt has settled in after a rocky April, but the rest of the group has struggled.
Luis Severino has been one of the worst pitchers in the league, posting an 8.06 ERA across 14 outings. Were the Yankees in a better position, they quite likely would’ve bumped him from the rotation by now. With so many injuries, Severino has tenuously held his rotation spot. Boone told reporters this afternoon he’s likely to get another start on Tuesday against Atlanta (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Brito and Vásquez are likely to fill out the rotation for now.
Yankees Option Randy Vasquez, Recall Matt Krook
The Yankees announced this morning that the club has recalled left-hander Matt Krook to the big league club following the decision last night to option right-hander Randy Vasquez to Triple-A.
Krook, 28, was converted to relief ahead of the 2023 campaign after being selected to the Yankees’ 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 Draft during the offseason. A fourth-round pick by the Giants in the 2016 draft, Krook spent time in the Giants and Rays organizations before joining the Yankees in 2021. Prior to 2023, the lefty prospect had primarily been used as a starter, with a 3.57 ERA in 244 2/3 innings at the Double-A and Triple-A levels during his time in the Yankees organization. Despite those solid numbers, Krook was moved to the bullpen thanks to command issues; the lefty has never had a walk rate below 10% in a full season throughout his entire professional career.
So far, the move to the pen has proved to be a revelation for Krook. He’s posted a microscopic 1.04 ERA with a 1.79 FIP in 17 1/3 innings at Triple-A across twelve appearances this season. While his walk rate is still a concerning 16.9%, he’s striking out a whopping 47.9% of batters faced, mitigating the issue to an extent. Krook has clearly shown enough that the Yankees believe him to be ready for a debut in the big leagues, where he will provide the club with a quality left-handed option alongside Wandy Peralta.
Headed back to Triple-A to make room for Krook on the roster is Vasquez, who started yesterday’s game for the Yankees in a major league debut of his own. The 24-year-old righty held his own against a tough Padres lineup, allowing two runs on four hits (one home run) and three walks while striking out six in 4 2/3 innings of work. Vasquez figures to act as a depth starter for the Yankees in Triple-A going forward, a valuable role given the numerous injury woes the Yankees has suffered in the rotation so far in 2023.
Yankees To Promote Randy Vásquez
The Yankees are promoting right-hander Randy Vásquez to the majors, with the righty telling reporters such as Bryan Hoch of MLB.com that he’ll be starting tomorrow’s game. That will be his major league debut. He’s already on the 40-man roster but will require an active roster spot between now and then.
Vásquez, 24, was an international amateur out of the Dominican Republic, signing with the Yanks in 2018. He started his professional career in rookie ball in 2018 and 2019, before the minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic in 2020. He followed that up with a strong 2021 wherein he shot from Single-A to High-A and then Double-A. He tossed 107 1/3 innings across those levels with a 2.52 ERA, striking out 28.6% of opponents while walking 8.4%. That showing caused Baseball America to rank him the #12 Yankee prospect going into 2022.
Last year, he spent the entire season at Double-A, making 25 starts and tallying 115 1/3 innings. He had a 3.90 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 48.3% ground ball rate. In November, the club gave him a spot on the 40-man roster to prevent him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. That solid showing got him bumped to #9 on the BA list of top 30 farmhands in the system.
This year, he’s been in Triple-A, making nine starts on the year so far with a 4.85 ERA in 42 2/3 innings. He has a healthy 25.5% strikeout rate and 46% ground ball rate but is walking 11.7% of batters faced on the year.
It’s possible that this will be just a spot start for Vásquez, as Domingo Germán‘s 10-game sticky stuff suspension will be over in a couple of days. Once he’s able to return, he should slot back into the rotation next to Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Clarke Schmidt. Schmidt has an ERA of 6.00 so far this year and still has an option, so there’s perhaps some chance Vásquez bumps him out. However, Schmidt has solid peripherals but an unlucky .386 batting average on balls in play and 62.7% strand rate. His 4.39 FIP and 3.82 SIERA suggest that regression to the mean might push his ERA down a bit.
Looking At The Yankees’ Rotation Depth
Up until a couple of weeks ago, the Yankees seemed to have an extremely strong group of five starting pitchers. With Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes and Frankie Montas penciled in, the club had arguably the best rotation in the entire league. Unfortunately, the shoulder issues that plagued Montas last year are still lingering and he is going to miss the first month of the season. They still have an excellent front four but will now have to rely on their depth to start the season. Even if Montas is able to return to health and looks like his old self by May, it’s possible that one of the other four will need a breather and there will be continued opportunities for other pitchers. Teams almost never make it through an entire season using just five or six starters, meaning depth is always important.
Who does the club have on hand that could step up to fill in for Montas or any other injury? Let’s take a look at the options.
Germán, 30, is probably the most obvious and straightforward solution. He seemed to establish himself as part of the club’s future rotation in 2019 when he tossed 143 innings with a 4.03 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 38.1% ground ball rate. But in September of that year, he was placed on administrative leave while the league investigated him for domestic violence. He ultimately received an 81-game suspension and flirted with retirement while serving it but ultimately returned.
In 2021, he was able to toss 98 1/3 innings over 18 starts and four relief appearances. He posted a 4.58 ERA while striking out 23.9% of opponents. Last year, shoulder problems sent him to the 60-day injured list in March and he wasn’t reinstated until July. He ultimately made 14 starts and one relief appearance, posting a 3.61 ERA in 72 1/3 innings. His strikeout rate dipped to just 19.5% and opponents hit just .262 on balls in play. That latter number is well below league average but not far off from his career mark of .272. It’s possible that he just has a knack for limiting damage but Statcast data doesn’t support that. He was in the 26th percentile last year in terms of hard hit rate and 25th in average exit velocity, though he was in the 57th for barrel rate. It’s possible that he would struggle to maintain an ERA under 4.00 but he avoids walks and would still be much better than the fifth/sixth starter on most teams.
Schmidt, 27 next month, was a first round pick of the Yanks in 2017. He pitched well as he moved up the minor league ladder and was considered one of the top 100 prospects in the league by Baseball America in 2020 and 2021. He’s had some brief time in the majors but his overall workload hasn’t been huge over the past couple of years. With the minors being canceled by the pandemic in 2020, he was limited to just 6 1/3 innings of official action in the majors. In 2021, an elbow strain kept him out of action for a while and he was only able to log another 6 1/3 in the bigs along with 38 minor league innings. Last year, he was frequently optioned and recalled, throwing 57 2/3 frames in the majors along with 33 in Triple-A, combining for 90 2/3 on the season.
When healthy enough to take the mound, he’s produced pretty solid results. His 70 1/3 innings at the MLB level have resulted in a 3.71 ERA, 22.5% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate and 44.6% ground ball rate. His minor league work has been even better, as he’s posted a 2.71 ERA over 71 innings in the past two years. He struck out out 31% of batters faced and walked 7.1% of them while getting ground balls on about half of balls in play. There are some things to like here but he still has an option whereas Germán doesn’t. Given that fact and his workload concerns, he might get nudged to Triple-A until a need arises.
García, 24 in May, flashed some potential in 2020 when he made six starts with a 4.98 ERA. That number might not jump out, but he was only 21 years old at the time, perhaps pointing to an enticing future with continued development. Unfortunately, that hasn’t come to fruition. In the two subsequent years, he’s only made a couple of big league starts while registering a 6.87 ERA in 154 2/3 minor league innings. He’s still young but he’s now out of options. Given his poor results in recent years, he could be given a long relief role in the bullpen or else designated for assignment.
Gil, 25 in June, has a 3.78 ERA through his first seven MLB starts but he’s not going to be available for a while. He underwent Tommy John in May of last year and won’t be a realistic candidate until midseason at the earliest. Like García, he’s now out of options and will need to either crack the active roster or else be designated for assignment. He’ll be able to pitch in the minors as part of a rehab assignment once healthy, but it will be decision time once the 30-day rehab period is up.
Vazquez, 24, has spent his entire career with the Yanks thus far, signing with them as an international free agent in 2018. He’s since moved his way up and spent all of last year in Double-A. He made 25 starts at that level, tossing 115 1/3 innings with a 3.90 ERA. He struck out 24.2% of batters faced while walking 8.3% and getting grounders at a 48.3% clip. He was added to the club’s roster in November to prevent him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s currently considered the club’s #9 prospect at Baseball America but has yet to pitch at the Triple-A level.
Krook, 28, is a left-hander that was drafted by the Giants but went to the Rays in the Evan Longoria deal. The Yankees grabbed him in the minor league portion of the 2020 Rule 5 draft. He’s since posted some solid results in the upper minors, though the control hasn’t been pinpoint. He spent last year at Triple-A, making 22 starts and seven relief appearances with a 4.09 ERA over 138 2/3 innings. He walked 12.1% of batters faced but struck out 25.7% and got grounders at a 55.7% clip. That was enough for the Yanks to add him to the roster at season’s end to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency.
Brito, 25 next month, has spent his entire career in the Yankees’ organization, having been signed by them as an international amateur out of the Dominican Republic. He split last year between Double-A and Triple-A, tossing 112 2/3 innings over 23 starts and three relief appearances. He only struck out 20% of batters faced but kept his walks down to a 7.7% level and got grounders on about half the balls he allowed into play. Like Krook, he was added to the club’s 40-man at the end of the season to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency.
Gomez, 23, was an international signee out of Venezuela, agreeing with the Yankees in 2016. He earned his way onto prospect lists over the next few years and got a spot on the 40-man in November of 2020 to protect him from Rule 5 selection. Unfortunately, injuries have limited him over the past couple of seasons. In 2021, he dealt with a shoulder issue and contracted COVID-19, ultimately only making nine starts on the year at Class-A. In 2022, he spent time at various levels and finished the year at Double-A, but was only able to log 47 innings on the year. The results were good, as he posted a 2.49 ERA while striking out 25.7% of batters faced, but it will be hard for him to carry a huge workload after pitching very little in recent years.
Clayton Beeter/Sean Boyle/Mitch Spence/Tanner Tully
None of this group are currently on the 40-man roster, meaning they will face longer odds of contributing this year, though they could always force the club into making room. Beeter is arguably the most exciting of the bunch. Selected 66th overall by the Dodgers in 2020, he was ranked that club’s #12 prospect by Baseball America going into 2022. That was after a 2021 season that saw him post a 3.44 ERA between High-A and Double-A while striking out 36.6% of batters faced. In 2022, his ERA jumped to 5.75 as he walked 14.3% of batters faced, but he was then flipped to the Yankees in the Joey Gallo trade. After the deal, he got his walks down to 10.6% and his ERA to 2.13. He struck out an incredible 37.1% of batters faced on the year between the two teams but only threw 77 innings.
External Addition
If the Yankees feel these depth options aren’t enough, they could always look outside the organization for help. The free agent market still features guys like Michael Wacha, Dylan Bundy and Zack Greinke. In terms of trades, it’s possible the Mariners might be willing to move Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen. The Brewers are suddenly loaded in rotation options and could theoretically do without Adrian Houser. However, all of those paths come with a complication for the Yankees, who are reportedly leery about crossing the final tier of the competitive balance tax. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT figure at $292.3MM, just a hair under the final line of $293MM. Making any external addition without making up that difference will be a challenge. Trading the contract of someone like Josh Donaldson or Aaron Hicks would give them some more breathing room but the Yanks haven’t been able to find a deal so far.