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Robert Stephenson

Quick Hits: Bautista, Stephenson, Casas

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Orioles manager Brandon Hyde says that the club is hoping right-hander Félix Bautista can make his spring debut on Thursday. “He feels great, he feels totally healthy,” Hyde said, per Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com.

Bautista, 28 in June, has been slowed in camp so far by knee and shoulder issues but seems to be on track now. If he makes his debut on Thursday as planned, he will have two weeks to get into game shape prior to Opening Day.

That’s good news for the O’s, as Bautista had an excellent debut last year. He made 65 appearances with a 2.19 ERA, 34.8% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 42.9% ground ball rate. He worked his way up the Baltimore bullpen chart and eventually took over the closer’s role, earning 15 saves on the year.

Some other tidbits from around the majors…

  • Pirates right-hander Robert Stephenson has been held back by some right arm discomfort and still hasn’t thrown to hitters, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. At this point, it seems like the best-case scenario is Stephenson getting into some game action at the end of Spring Training. That suggests that anything other than the best-case scenario would lead to Stephenson starting the season on the injured list. The 30-year-old has been inconsistent in recent years, posting a 3.76 ERA in 2019 followed by a ghastly 9.90 figure in 2020. He got that down to 3.13 in 2021 before wavering again last year. He had a 6.04 ERA with the Rockies in August when they put him on waivers. The Pirates claimed him and saw the righty get back in a good groove to finish the year, with a 3.38 ERA over 13 appearances, striking out 36% of batters faced against a 2% walk rate. That was impressive enough for the Bucs to hang on to Stephenson and tender him a contract, eventually agreeing to a $1.75MM salary for his final arbitration season. If the Pirates are out of contention this summer, Stephenson would likely be available at the deadline if he’s healthy and performing well since he’s an impending free agent.
  • The Diamondbacks and Corbin Carroll came to an agreement yesterday on an eight-year, nine-figure extension. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Red Sox are interested in exploring similar deals with their own young players but that nothing is imminent with Triston Casas. Carroll and Casas are in similar positions, as they were each highly touted prospects that debuted late last year. The Sox showed faith in Casas by releasing Eric Hosmer, effectively clearing the first base job for him after his 27-game debut. His batting average was just .197 in that time but he walked in 20% of his trips to the plate and his five home runs. A couple of months ago, he expressed his openness to extension talks but also said that none had taken place yet. If those discussions have begun in the interim, it doesn’t seem like much progress has been made. There’s not much urgency at the moment, as Casas is still under club control for six more years and won’t even qualify for arbitration until after the 2025 season.

NL Notes: Marte, Stephenson, Dodgers, Taillon

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Starling Marte underwent core surgery in November, and the outfielder talked with reporters (including MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo) today about the somewhat unexpected nature of that procedure.  Marte ended up requiring surgery on both sides of his groin, providing an unwelcome answer to he’d been bothered by leg and lower-body problems for a big portion of the 2022 season.  Marte played through quad and groin soreness but didn’t go on the injured list until he suffered a fractured finger in September, sidelining him until the playoffs.

Despite all the injuries, Marte’s first Mets season was a success, as he hit .292/.347/.468 with 16 homers over 505 plate appearances.  Both Marte and manager Buck Showalter indicated that the veteran outfielder will be ramped up somewhat slowly in the early days of Spring Training, yet Marte is expected to be ready to roll for the Opening Day lineup.

More from around the National League…

  • Pirates reliever Robert Stephenson is suffering from some right arm discomfort, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey tweets.  It seems to be a precautionary slowdown at this point, and Stephenson threw as recently as Saturday.  Heading into his first full season with the Pirates, Stephenson had a 3.38 ERA and a whopping 36% strikeout rate over 13 1/3 innings after the Bucs claimed him off waivers from the Rockies in late August.  Assuming that this arm issue isn’t overly serious, Stephenson is an interesting high-leverage bullpen arm for Pittsburgh, given that he posted good results in 2019 (with Cincinnati) and 2021 (with Colorado).
  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters that J.D. Martinez will be the club’s designated hitter “99.9 percent of the time,” though Martinez isn’t necessarily expected to play all 162 games.  This plan differs from the Dodgers’ rotational use of the DH spot last season, and in particular, Will Smith will be slated for more full rest days with Martinez on board, as Los Angeles often used Smith at DH on days when he wasn’t catching.  As productive a bat as Smith has been, he might be even better with a bit more rest, and ideally Martinez’s offense would further enhance the Dodgers’ lineup punch.
  • Jameson Taillon is on a new team and he is now learning a new pitch, as the Cubs right-hander has started to work on a sweeping slider.  As Taillon tells The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, he was one of the relatively few Yankees pitchers who didn’t use the “whirly,” as his 2020-21 offseason was spent recovering from Tommy John surgery and adjusting after being traded from the Pirates, and Taillon’s 2021-22 offseason work was hampered by the lockout and recovery from ankle surgery.  “This year, healthy offseason, I signed on the earlier end, got familiar with the pitching coaches and I’m comfortable with my delivery.  So I feel like it’s the perfect storm for being able to tinker a little bit,” Taillon said.  The righty inked a four-year, $68MM free agent deal with Chicago in early December.

Pirates Claim Robert Stephenson, Designate Kevin Padlo

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TODAY: The Pirates have officially added Stephenson to their active roster, with JT Brubaker headed to the paternity list in the corresponding move.

AUGUST 27: The Pirates have claimed right-hander Robert Stephenson off waivers from the Rockies.  Infielder Kevin Padlo was designated for assignment in the corresponding 40-man roster move, and the Pirates will make another move on their active roster when Stephenson joins the team.

Stephenson was DFA’ed by Colorado earlier this week, and didn’t last long on the waiver wire before the Pirates snatched him up.  It isn’t surprising to see the Bucs take a chance on a live arm who has some of the highest velocity of any pitcher in baseball, and Stephenson was also a former top prospect for the division-rival Reds during his minor league career.

That early promise led to some good results as a reliever in 2019 and 2021, but this season has been a struggle for the right-hander.  Stephenson has a 6.04 ERA over 44 2/3 innings, due to a below-average 18.8% strikeout rate and a lot of hard contact allowed.  As fast (97mph) as Stephenson’s average four-seamer may be, batters have hit .379 against the pitch.

If Pittsburgh’s coaching staff can get Stephenson back to his 2021 form, he’ll be a nice bullpen addition for the Pirates both for the remainder of this season and in 2023, as Stephenson still has a third and final season of arbitration eligibility remaining.  The righty is out of minor league options, so the Pirates would have a DFA decision to make of their own if they wanted to move Stephenson to the minors and off their 40-man roster.

Padlo is no stranger to the DFA carousel, as he has now been designated for assignment for the fifth time in a little over a year.  The Mariners claimed Padlo off waivers from the Rays in August 2021, starting a cycle that has been Padlo go from Seattle to the Giants, back to the Mariners, and then to Pittsburgh earlier this month when the Bucs claimed Padlo away from the M’s.

All of the movement has resulted in only 34 Major League plate appearances for Padlo this season (split over the Pirates, Mariners, and Giants), but he has performed well over 278 Triple-A PA.  The infielder has hit .270/.345/.484 with 12 homers and 13 doubles at the highest minor league level, continuing what has been a solid set of career Triple-A numbers.

Between that production and Padlo’s versatility as a third baseman who can be moved around the infield and into left field, it isn’t hard to see why teams keep having interest in Padlo, even if that interest has yet to manifest itself into a regular MLB job.  As such, it seems quite possible that another club might claim Padlo away from the Pirates.

Rockies Designate Robert Stephenson, Reinstate Chad Kuhl From 15-Day IL

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The Rockies have reinstated right-hander Chad Kuhl from the 15-day injured list.  To create roster space, the team also announced that righty Robert Stephenson has been designated for assignment.

Stephenson is in his second season in Colorado, after being acquired from the Reds back in November 2020.  After being a top prospect during his time in the Cincinnati farm system, Stephenson never caught on as a starting pitcher but showed promise as a reliever in 2019.  He built on that production in 2021, when he posted a 3.13 ERA, 26.4% strikeout rate, and 9.1% walk rate over 46 innings out of Colorado’s bullpen.

The 2022 season has been a different story, as Stephenson has struggled to a 6.04 ERA over 44 2/3 frames.  While his 97mph average fastball velocity still puts him among the game’s hardest throwers, opposing batters have been crushing Stephenson’s four-seamer to the tune of a .379 batting average.  With only average secondary pitches and a lot of hard contact being allowed, Stephenson’s production has fallen off, especially in the last few weeks.  The righty has allowed at least one earned run in seven of his last nine appearances, with an ugly 10.24 ERA over his last 9 2/3 innings.

Since Stephenson is out of minor league options, the Rockies had no choice but designate him for assignment in order to move him down to Triple-A.  Since Colorado already had an open 40-man roster spot to accommodate Kuhl’s return, the club didn’t strictly have to DFA Stephenson, so it is possible the Rox might be parting ways with him altogether.  A waiver claim from a rival team is a distinct possibility, as Stephenson’s velocity and fastball spin rate could interest other clubs.

For Kuhl, he hasn’t pitched since August 3 due to a hip strain.  The right-hander pitched well over the first three months of the season, but had a 10.17 ERA in the 25 2/3 innings and six starts prior to his IL placement.

Roster Notes: Twins, Rockies, Orioles, Yankees

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The Twins are likely to be without Taylor Rogers and Randy Dobnak for the rest of the season, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). Rogers has missed most of the second half after spraining a finger at the end of July. Before the injury, Rogers was again effective for the Twinkies, appearing 40 times and posting a 3.35 ERA with nine saves and eight holds, though he does have four blown saves as well. Dobnak has essentially been a non-contributor. He went on the injured list with a finger sprain on June 21, and he struggled to open the year.

Let’s check on a couple of roster moves made early on Saturday…

    • The Rockies have reinstated Robert Stephenson from the paternity list and optioned Ben Bowden to Triple-A, per the team. The 26-year-old Bowden has a 6.56 ERA/4.84 FIP in 35 2/3 innings. Stephenson has been a productive member of the Rockies’ bullpen, tossing 38 1/3 innings with a 3.76 ERA/4.02 FIP.
    • The Orioles have recalled Dean Kremer from Triple-A, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Kremer joins the club as their 29th man for today’s twin bill against the Blue Jays. Kremer will make his 13th start of the season and look to improve upon a 7.25 ERA/6.52 FIP.
    • The Yankees outrighted Jonathan Davis to Triple-A today, per the team. Davis has been an extra man in the Yankees outfield, appearing in just 12 games after being claimed off waivers from the Blue Jays.

Rockies Activate Jon Gray, Promote Colton Welker

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The Rockies announced Wednesday that they’ve reinstated right-hander Jon Gray from the 10-day injured list and called up infielder Colton Welker for his Major League debut. Righty Antonio Santos was also recalled to the MLB roster. In a trio of corresponding moves, the Rox put right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez on the 10-day injured list with a strained oblique, placed righty Robert Stephenson on the paternity list and optioned infielder Joshua Fuentes to Triple-A Albuquerque.

Gray returns to the club after a minimal stay on the injured list due to inflammation in his right forearm. It was a somewhat ominous diagnosis at the time, given the pronounced struggles Gray endured in the month of August, but a swift return is good news both for the club and for Gray as he nears his first foray into the free-agent market.

To this point in the season, Gray has posted a 4.13 ERA with a 23.1 percent strikeout rate, a 9.8 percent walk rate and a 49.9 percent ground-ball rate in 126 1/3 innings of work. Those solid numbers come in spite of a disastrous month of August, wherein Gray yielded a 6.55 ERA in 22 innings and lasted fewer than five innings in three of his five appearances.

Both Gray and the Rockies have made their mutual interest in some kind of extension known, though the recent injury hiccup could have some impact on the potential for a deal. At the very least, the Rockies likely want to see how Gray responds to 10 days of downtime before determining how to proceed. They reportedly intend to issue a qualifying offer to Gray, but it’s also possible the two sides work out a mutli-year deal at a lesser rate. Gray, of course, could also see what the market has to bear from other clubs upon receiving a QO from the Rockies. Players have 10 days to accept or reject their QOs, and they’re free to talk to other clubs during that time.

Turning to Welker, the 2016 fourth-rounder is getting his first look at the big league level. He’s long been ranked among the better prospects in a generally thin Rockies system, currently sitting eighth among their farmhands at FanGraphs, 20th at MLB.com and 23rd at Baseball America.

Welker has been limited to just 23 games and 93 plate appearances at the Triple-A level in 2021. He’s spent much of the year on the restricted list due to an 80-game suspension issued in May upon testing positive for a banned substance (dehydrochlormethyltestosterone). He’s one of several players to have pushed back against suspensions for trace amounts of the DHCMT long-term metabolite — picograms, in most cases — though to this point all suspensions under such circumstances have seemingly been upheld. (The Wall Street Journal’s Jared Diamond took an in-depth look at the situation last August.)

In his limited sample of work this season, Welker has been productive. He’s slashed .286/.378/.476 with three homers, five doubles, a triple and a 12.4 percent walk rate against a 20.7 percent strikeout rate. He’s spent all of his time at third base, though some scouting reports on Welker feel his range (or lack thereof) will eventually push him to first base. The Rockies don’t currently have a clear long-term answer at either corner infield position, so Welker seems likely to get a chance to prove he’s capable of seizing one of those two spots.

Rockies, Reds Swap Jeff Hoffman For Robert Stephenson

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In a challenge trade of sorts, the Rockies and Reds have agreed to swap a pair of former top pitching prospects. The two clubs agreed to a trade Wednesday sending right-hander Jeff Hoffman and minor league righty Case Williams from Colorado to Cincinnati in exchange for right-hander Robert Stephenson and minor league outfielder Jameson Hannah. The Reds have formally announced the swap.

Hoffman, 28 in January, was the ninth overall pick by the Blue Jays in the 2014 draft and went to the Rockies as the centerpiece of the blockbuster deadline swap that shipped Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto. The hope at the time of the deal was that the former East Carolina University ace could develop into a key front-of-the-rotation piece at the ever-challenging Coors Field, but that simply hasn’t panned out.

Jeff Hoffman | John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Hoffman has logged Major League innings in each of the past five seasons but never performed up to those lofty prospect expectations. In a total of 230 2/3 frames at the MLB level, he’s compiled a 6.40 ERA and a similarly discouraging 5.58 FIP. Along the way, Hoffman has averaged 7.7 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and 1.79 HR/9 to go along with a 40.7 percent ground-ball rate.

Unappealing as those baseline numbers are, however, there’s also reason to believe that Hoffman may yet have another gear into which he can tap. As noted here at MLBTR back in May, Hoffman possesses high-end velocity and spin rate on his four-seamer and above-average spin on a curveball that generally befuddled hitters in 2019. The Reds and their affinity for high-spin pitchers may have a different idea about how Hoffman can maximize what looks to at least be a viable two-pitch mix — be it concentrating his four-seamer more in the top of the zone, altering his release point or any number of other possible tweaks.

Hoffman is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to open the 2021 season on the Reds’ roster. If they’re able to successfully tap into his still-dormant potential, he’d be controllable for another four seasons.

The tale of Stephenson in Cincinnati is rather similar. He’s a hard-throwing 27-year-old who is out of minor league options and at various points ranked among the game’s elite pitching prospects but has yet to develop into a consistent producer.

Robert Stephenson | David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Stephenson has had recent success, however, giving the Reds 64 2/3 frames of 3.76 ERA and 3.63 FIP ball with 11.3 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 as recently as 2019. Unfortunately for both the Reds and Stephenson, he followed that up with a ghastly 2020 effort in which he served up 11 runs in just 10 innings — thanks largely to an astonishing eight home runs allowed.

It’s worth noting that Stephenson, like Hoffman, possesses excellent velocity and spin rate on his fastball — both of which contributed to him recording an 18.7 percent swinging-strike rate across the past two seasons. Stephenson’s whiff rate, in fact, ranked among the 99th percentile of all big league relievers in 2019, so there’s plenty of reason to think that he could also emerge (or reemerge) as a viable setup piece for the Rockies. He’s controlled for three more seasons — one less year than they controlled Hoffman.

Hannah, 23, was a second-round pick by the A’s back in 2018 but was traded to the Reds in the 2019 swap that brought righty Tanner Roark to Oakland. He has just one full professional season under his belt after this year’s minor league campaign was canceled, having slashed .274/.339/.369 at Class-A Advanced in ’19. Hannah currently ranks 15th among Cincinnati farmhands at MLB.com and 23rd at FanGraphs, drawing praise for a combination of plus speed, above-average fielding and an average or better hit tool. Hannah lacks power, and scouting reports peg his arm as below average as well.

Williams was the Rockies’ fourth-round pick just this past summer. He’s yet to pitch in a pro game due to the cancellation of the 2020 minor league system and was at least somewhat of a surprise pick, as he didn’t rank in the draft’s top 200 prospects at MLB.com or the top 500 at Baseball America.

However, as GM Jeff Bridich explained to MLB.com’s Thomas Harding at the time, Williams was a local product whom the club had scouted extensively. It’s possible that with a full high school season, of course, Williams would’ve been vaulted onto those pre-draft rankings. And it’s clear that the Rox aren’t the only club intrigued by Williams and his 96 mph heater, as evidenced by the very fact that the Reds have had him included in today’s swap. Indeed, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets that Cincinnati GM Nick Krall now says his team planned to draft Williams before the Rockies snagged him in the fourth round.

Fansided’s Robert Murray first reported that a trade was in place and that Hannah was in the deal. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal added details on the framework (Twitter links) before Murray reported all of the names involved.

Reds Designate Cody Reed

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The Reds have designated left-hander Cody Reed for assignment, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer was among those to report. The club reinstated righty Robert Stephenson in a corresponding move.

Reed, now 27, joined the Reds in the team’s 2015 trade with the Royals centering on righty Johnny Cueto. Reed debuted in the majors the next season, but he didn’t begin truly making his mark in the bigs until 2018. Between then and last season, Reed tossed 49 1/3 innings of 3.65 ERA/3.59 FIP ball with 8.94 K/9, 2.92 BB/9 and an exemplary 63.2 percent groundball rate. Reed wasn’t able to carry that success into this season, though, as he allowed six earned runs on 10 hits and eight walks (10 strikeouts) in 9 1/3 frames before the Reds jettisoned him. They’ll have a week to trade, release or send Reed through waivers, though he’s out of minor league options.

Stephenson, 27, made his sole appearance of the year July 25 before landing on the IL with a back injury. He was a key part of the Reds’ bullpen last year, when he amassed 64 2/3 frames of 3.76 ERA/3.63 FIP ball with 11.27 K/9 and 3.34 BB/9.

Breakout Candidate: Robert Stephenson

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We don’t know if or when the 2020 Major League Baseball season will begin, but should it occur, the Reds will enter the campaign as one of the most interesting teams in the game. You wouldn’t normally say that about a club in the throes of a six-year playoff drought – one that hasn’t even posted a .500 season during that span – but the Reds made a spirited effort to upgrade their roster over the winter. Cincinnati’s additions figure to help the team in what could be a wide-open race in the National League Central, though it will obviously need its top performers from 2019 to continue their strong play. That includes right-handed reliever Robert Stephenson, who may be on the verge of a breakout.

Now 27 years old, Stephenson entered pro baseball as the 27th overall pick in the 2011 draft. He was a consensus top-100 prospect for a few years during his days as a minor leaguer, though he hasn’t eluded adversity by any means. It took Stephenson quite some time to find his niche in the majors, where he worked as both a starter and a reliever from 2016-18 and put up an ugly 5.47 ERA/5.50 FIP with 8.64 K/9 and 5.67 BB/9 over 133 1/3 innings. Stephenson was exclusively a reliever last season, though, and the proverbial light bulb went on.

Across 57 appearances and 64 2/3 innings, Stephenson logged a 3.76 ERA/3.63 FIP with 11.27 K/9 and 3.34 BB/9. Those make for good numbers, not otherworldly production, but a deeper dive suggests Stephenson may have more in the tank.

Among qualified relievers in 2019, Stephenson ranked third in swinging-strike percentage (18.9), trailing only the Brewers’ Josh Hader and the Rays’ Nick Anderson. Those two are rightly regarded as superb relievers. For Stephenson, a notable increase in velocity was one of the causes of his success. After averaging 93.2 mph on his fastball in 2018, the number jumped to 95.0 a year ago. However, Stephenson’s slider – not his fastball – was his go-to pitch. He threw it a little under 57 percent of the time, per FanGraphs, which graded it as the best in baseball among all relievers. The pitch was indeed an absolute nightmare to contend with for hitters, who mustered an abysmal .176 weighted on-base average/.198 xwOBA against it, according to Statcast.

Speaking of Statcast, it ranked Stephenson as a top-notch hurler in several categories last year. See for yourself…

  • Fastball velocity: 78th percentile
  • Exit velocity: 81st percentile
  • Fastball spin: 86th percentile
  • Strikeout percentage: 88th percentile
  • xwOBA: 98th percentile
  • Hard-hit percentage: 98th percentile

That’ll do. Granted, Stephenson did benefit from a .230 batting average on balls in play against in 2019, but considering his tendency to limit meaningful contact, he deserves a good amount of credit for that. If he’s going to take the next step, though, keeping the ball out of the air would probably help. Stephenson owns a career 34.9 percent groundball rate, including just 31.8 last season. That said, the home run bug didn’t bite him, which it did with so many other pitchers. Only 12.7 percent of fly balls Stephenson yielded left the yard. Beyond that, a better showing versus opposite-handed hitters would help push Stephenson into the upper tier when it comes to preventing runs. Left-handed hitters’ wOBA (.315) off him was 94 points higher than righties’ (.221). That’s not to say a .315 wOBA is particularly threatening, however, as it’s in line with the figure light hitters such as Colin Moran and Nick Ahmed recorded last season.

There is undoubtedly plenty to like with Stephenson. Even if he just matches last year’s output, Stephenson may be one of the reasons the Reds push for contention in 2020. But if Stephenson puts it all together, we could be looking at one of the premier relievers in baseball.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reds Offense, Not The Bullpen, Responsible For Struggles In Close Games

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The Reds bullpen crumbled down the stretch in 2019, but confidence remains high in their core group of high-impact relievers, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

They formed the league’s best unit over the first half of the season, but the pressure never let up as the Reds finished with more one-run margins than any other team in the game. 57 one-run games plus another 31 games with a two-run margin made the difference in an up-and-down season for Cincinnati. Interestingly, President of Baseball Ops pretty clearly assigned blame in these games to the offense, defending the bullpen in saying, “When they did let things get away, I think they were, at times, unfairly scrutinized because I really think when the offense had chances to provide separating runs, get big leads, jump out, we just didn’t get quite enough of that, taking pressure off the pitching at times.”

The bullpen finished middle-of-the-pack by ERA, FIP, and fWAR, though admittedly closer to the top than the bottom. Despite all the close games, the unit still finished 25th in innings pitched, a good indicator for the starting rotation. All things considered, the Reds enter the offseason feeling pretty good about Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, and Robert Stephenson making up the core of their relief unit.

[RELATED – Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds]

All signs point to another eventful winter for the Reds, but it’s the offense where Williams is focusing his attention. Despite some breakout power in the forms of Eugenio Suarez and Aristides Aquino, the Reds finished 25th in the majors in runs scored. Their offense as a whole finished with just an 87 wRC+, also ranking 25th in the MLB. They have a ways to go to join the league’s elite in this regard: 11 teams finished with 100+ weighted runs created plus, 8 of whom made the postseason. The Cardinals 95 wRC+ was the lowest of any team in the postseason.

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