What Would It Take To Extend Tarik Skubal?
The Tigers recently attempted to extend reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal, according to a report from Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, but Petzold suggests the offer from Detroit was not competitive and the sides ultimately did not come close to hammering out a deal. It’s certainly understandable that Detroit would have interest in locking up their ace long-term, as they’re just beginning to enter their competitive window and have just two years of team control over the southpaw remaining before he can depart in free agency. With that being said, Skubal is a client of Scott Boras, who typically encourages his players to test free agency to maximize value, and the lefty certainly has plenty of leverage coming off a 2024 season that saw him win the AL Triple Crown and become the club’s first Cy Young award winner since Max Scherzer in 2013.
That’s not to say an extension is necessarily impossible, however. A handful of high-profile Boras clients, including Jose Altuve and Xander Bogaerts, have previously signed extensions with their clubs prior to testing free agency. And there’s certainly precedent for Cy Young-caliber hurlers signing extensions, as well. The Tigers famously signed future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander to two extensions across his 13 years in Detroit, the first being a five-year, $80MM contract that bought out his final two arbitration years and three free agent years prior to the 2010 season, and the second being a five-year deal signed prior to the 2013 season that covered the 2015-19 seasons and guaranteed Verlander an additional $140MM.
Verlander’s first contract stands as a fairly straightforward comparison point to Skubal given that the lefty is also two years away from free agency and Verlander had just finished third in AL Cy Young award voting prior to the deal being signed. However, that deal is a decade and a half old at this point and prices around the league have risen considerably in the ensuing years. Verlander’s second extension may serve as a more accurate point of comparison when discussing the possibility of another Cy Young winner extending his stay with the Tigers, given the high-end deals players such as Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324MM), Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM), and Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5MM) have signed over the past decade.
Perhaps the best comparison for Skubal’s situation can be found in right-hander Jacob deGrom, who inked an extension with the Mets prior to the 2019 season that covered the 2020-23 seasons. The deal guaranteed him $120.5MM in new money and included a club option for 2024 that could have raised the total guarantee to $153MM over five years. More importantly, the deal afforded deGrom the opportunity to opt out following the 2022 season. That deal was inked in a very similar situation to the one Skubal and the Tigers find themselves in now; deGrom was just two years from free agency and had secured his first career Cy Young award on the heels of an otherworldly season that saw him post a 1.70 ERA and 1.98 FIP in 217 innings of work.
That season was even more dominant than the one Skubal posted in 2024, and deGrom at the time had a much less checkered injury history than Skubal currently does. While those factors may suggest that deGrom’s deal ought to be a target for the lefty to shoot for, he has one major factor on his side that could substantially boost his earning power beyond even that of deGrom: age. Skubal just turned 28 last week, but deGrom was nearly three years older than Skubal during his Cy Young-winning age-30 season back in 2018. In other words, Skubal is not only younger now than deGrom was at the time of his extension, but he’ll actually still be younger than deGrom was at the time of the deal when he’s slated to reach free agency following the 2026 season.
Being able to market an age-30 season in free agency is a huge boost to a player’s overall value on the open market, particularly for pitchers who teams are often hesitant to guarantee lengthy deals for. Cole’s massive nine-year deal with the Yankees came prior to his age-29 season, suggesting that a $300MM payday could be a stretch for Skubal, but Strasburg was a year older than Skubal will be upon reaching free agency when he secured his $245MM contract on the open market and even had a similarly checkered injury history to the southpaw. Strasburg’s deal wound up being among the worst contracts in recent memory due to subsequent injury woes, which could make clubs skeptical of replicating it, but it’s easy to imagine Skubal landing a deal north of $200MM should he reach free agency during the 2026-27 offseason.
That’s a hefty price tag for the Tigers to contend with, but it’s certainly feasible they could put a compelling offer on the table. After all, the club has just two players signed to guaranteed contracts for the 2026 season: Javier Baez and Colt Keith. Keith won’t make more than $5.3MM annually until and unless his club option for the 2030 season is picked up, while Baez’s $23.3MM AAV will drop off the books following the 2027 season. For a club that was able to afford hefty annual salaries to both Verlander and Miguel Cabrera a decade ago, it should be fairly manageable to commit an AAV in the $25-30MM range to Skubal.
Skubal is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an $8MM salary via arbitration this year, and would presumably be in line for a healthy raise next winter as well. If the Tigers were willing to guarantee Skubal a combined $25MM for his final two trips through arbitration, then perhaps a seven-year, $175MM extension could make sense for both sides. Such a deal would guarantee Skubal a total payday through his age-34 season that approaches the $200MM guarantee he could hope to land in free agency, while allowing the Tigers to lock up their ace through his prime years. It’s also possible that Skubal could take a page out of deGrom’s playbook and sacrifice some total guarantee in order to get a second bite at the apple in the form of an opt-out, perhaps following his age-32 season in 2029.
Tarik Skubal Wins American League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal has his first Cy Young award. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced that the Tigers ace won the AL Cy Young by a unanimous margin. He received all 30 first-place votes. Kansas City’s Seth Lugo placed runner-up, while Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase rounded out the top three.
Whether Skubal would win the award was never in doubt. The hard-throwing southpaw, who turns 28 today, won the AL’s pitching Triple Crown. He led the Junior Circuit with a 2.39 earned run average across 192 innings. He held the major league lead in wins (18) and strikeouts (228). Skubal was essentially dominant from start to finish, as he didn’t allow an ERA higher than 3.05 in any month. He carried a 2.41 mark into the All-Star Break to earn his first selection to the Midsummer Classic.
Skubal fired 76 innings of 2.37 ERA ball after the Break, serving as the one constant in a Detroit rotation that was patched together after the Jack Flaherty deadline trade. He was the biggest contributor to the Tigers’ Cinderella run to a Wild Card in the second half. He punctuated the regular season with seven scoreless innings in a 2-1 victory over the Rays that more or less ensured Detroit would clinch a playoff spot in the final weekend of the regular season.
This was the first season in which Skubal topped 150 innings. He looked like a budding ace in 2022, when he turned in a 3.52 ERA with huge strikeout numbers across 21 starts. A late-season flexor injury brought that year to a halt. Skubal underwent surgery in August and was out into July ’23. He struck out 102 batters with a 2.80 ERA in 15 starts to close that season. Skubal was a trendy preseason Cy Young pick coming into 2024. He more than lived up to that promise.
Lugo, who turned 35 earlier this week, had the best season of his career. He turned in an even 3.00 ERA across 206 2/3 innings. Only Logan Gilbert threw more innings than Lugo, a former reliever who didn’t move back to the rotation until the ’23 season. The Royals made out incredibly well in the first season of a three-year, $45MM free agent deal. Lugo’s stellar year was a big reason that K.C. snapped a nine-year playoff drought of their own.
Clase had one of the best seasons by a reliever ever. The Guardians’ closer managed a 0.61 ERA across 74 1/3 frames. He locked down 47 saves in 50 attempts. Clase has led the majors in saves in three straight seasons. He anchored an elite Cleveland bullpen that carried the Guardians to an AL Central title. He’s the first reliever since Francisco Rodríguez in 2008 to earn a top three finish in Cy Young balloting.
While Skubal had a monopoly on first-place votes, five pitchers placed second on at least one ballot. In addition to Lugo and Clase, Cole Ragans, Corbin Burnes and Gilbert all picked up a second-place vote. Framber Valdez was the only other pitcher to receive any top three votes. Kirby Yates, Yusei Kikuchi and Cleveland rookie reliever Cade Smith all appeared on one ballot in fourth or fifth place.
Image courtesy of Imagn. Full voter breakdown courtesy of the BBWAA.
AL Notes: Verlander, Garcia, Buxton, Paddack, Rangers, Skubal
Justin Verlander “felt strong” during a bullpen session today in Houston, Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle), which should line Verlander up to return to the rotation on Wednesday when the Astros face the Red Sox. A neck strain has kept Verlander from pitching in the majors since June 9, and he has amassed only 57 innings this season due both this current ailment and a bout of shoulder inflammation coming out of Spring Training. However, Verlander has completed two minor league rehab outings and today’s bullpen session looks like the final checkpoint on his path to recovery.
While things are looking promising for Verlander, Luis Garcia is more of a question mark. The Athletic’s Chandler Rome wrote (via X) that as of Friday, Garcia hadn’t yet resumed throwing since he was shut down due to soreness over two weeks ago. This is the second time Garcia has hit a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, and since Garcia went under the knife in May 2023, a normal rehab timeline would’ve had him ready to return to the majors by this point over 15 months past his procedure date. Though the Astros have said Garcia might return as a reliever rather than as a starter, he is running short on time to fully ramp up his readiness to rejoin Houston’s pitching staff in any capacity.
More from around the American League…
- Twins athletic trainer Nick Paparesta updated reporters (including The Athletic’s Dan Hayes) about several injured Minnesota players on Saturday, including Byron Buxton and Chris Paddack. Buxton received a cortisone shot in his inflamed right hip and recently worked out in a pool, so Paparesta feels “we’re kind of heading in the right direction.” This comes as a relief given Buxton’s long history of injury problems, including a more serious hip issue in 2022 that Paparesta feels may have created scar tissue related to Buxton’s current discomfort. As for Paddack, he is set to undergo an MRI on August 27, which will be his second scan since a left forearm strain sent him to the 15-day injured list on July 17. More will be known on Paddack’s timeline if the next MRI comes back clean, and he has already started playing games of catch in preparation to return to Minnesota’s staff before the season is over.
- Three of the Rangers‘ injured veteran starters took steps in their recoveries over the weekend, as Max Scherzer threw a bullpen session today and Jacob deGrom and Jon Gray each threw three-inning simulated games on Saturday. Gray seems to be the closest to returning, as he told MLB.com that he could return as a reliever during the Rangers’ series with the Pirates that begins tomorrow, if he isn’t lined up for a proper start during a series with the Guardians that gets underway Friday. A right groin strain sent Gray to the 15-day IL on July 29, while deGrom could begin a Double-A rehab assignment this week in his first game action since undergoing Tommy John surgery in June 2023. Scherzer hasn’t pitched since July 30 due to shoulder fatigue, and Texas manager Bruce Bochy said it hasn’t yet been decided if Scherzer will also embark on a rehab assignment next, or if he’ll first take part in a live batting practice session.
- Tarik Skubal had another quality start tonight in the Tigers‘ 3-2 win over the Yankees, as the star southpaw limited New York to one run (on three hits and four walks) over six innings of work. Skubal is up to a career-high 155 1/3 innings pitched, and manager A.J. Hinch told MLB Network’s Jon Morosi and other reporters that Sunday “could very well be his last start on regular rest” this season. Since Detroit is all but out of the wild card race, the team has no real reason to put too many extra miles on Skubal’s arm, though naturally the team isn’t going to shut him down completely as he pursues the AL Cy Young Award.
Harris: Tigers Were Never Close To Trading Skubal
Throughout the month of July, Tarik Skubal‘s name frequently surfaced in reports of teams eyeing rotation upgrades. He was widely considered to be a long-shot trade candidate, at best — we listed him 50th on our Top 50 trade candidate list, noting his unrivaled ability to impact a new club but also the Tigers’ unwillingness to move him — but it seemed as though teams might still try to blow the Tigers out of the water as the deadline drew nearer.
Perhaps other clubs indeed hoped to be able to do so, but Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris made clear in his post-deadline comments that Skubal was never on the cusp of moving. At a press conference to discuss the trades of Jack Flaherty, Mark Canha, Andrew Chafin and Carson Kelly, Harris was asked how close he came to trading Skubal, the presumptive Cy Young front-runner in the American League.
“Not close,” Harris said without hesitation (video link via WXYZ Detroit sports director Brad Galli). “There were a lot of rumors that floated out there. There are a lot of ‘unconfirmed reports’ that are just totally inaccurate. We never came close to trading Skubal.”
Harris declined to comment on whether there was ever any temptation or an offer that made him consider the possibility. However, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports that the Dodgers, who naturally had strong interest in Skubal, came away with the impression that the left-hander wasn’t available “in any scenario,” writing that one source indicated Detroit “wouldn’t talk about Skubal at all.”
On the one hand, it’s easy to shrug comments and reports along these lines off as irrelevant. What’s done is done, and Skubal is a Tiger. Nothing will change that for the time being. On the other hand, it also offers a potential glimpse into the offseason and the future. Had the Tigers been legitimately entertaining Skubal offers but simply not found an offer to their liking, he’d stand as a logical offseason trade candidate. But with Detroit’s ostensible refusal to even engage in discussions on him, it becomes all the more difficult to envision a scenario where Skubal is genuinely available this winter. If the Tigers wouldn’t even discuss him in July, when the return would theoretically be even higher, there’s little reason to think they’d give strong consideration to trading him a few months from now.
Asked whether the decision to hang onto Skubal, who’s only controlled for two additional seasons, was an indicator that Detroit would be aggressive in its offseason free agent and trade pursuits, Harris sidestepped and said his focus for now is the final two months of the season.
“It’s July right now,” said Harris. “We’ve got a lot of work to do this year. … We have a lot of young players in the big leagues who need to get a whole lot better. I think you guys are seeing some flashes of it. I think when you see some of these players, what they looked like in April and now what they look like in July, it’s a good example of what we can be as an organization. But we can’t just start looking into the winter right now. We have a lot of work to do in August and September to make sure the players on this and the players that are going to impact this team in the second half are coming up and getting better. That’s where our focus is right now.”
Orioles, Dodgers Have Discussed Tarik Skubal With Tigers
The Orioles and Dodgers are “engaged in talks” with the Tigers regarding a trade for All-Star left-hander Tarik Skubal, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. This comes after a previous report from Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, which suggested that Baltimore and L.A. were interested in Skubal but did not confirm the Tigers were entertaining offers for the Cy Young contender.
Both the Orioles and Dodgers have already made it crystal clear they are seeking to add starting pitching ahead of the July 30 trade deadline. Before the All-Star break, Orioles GM Mike Elias expressed interest in adding a starter with multiple years of club control. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have reportedly already made an offer to the White Sox for Garrett Crochet, and Alden Gonzalez of ESPN suggests that adding “a front-of-the-rotation starter” remains their top priority. Crochet is still their number one target, per Gonzalez, though Skubal would be far more than just a consolation prize.
Baltimore and L.A. have been two of the top teams in the league this season, but both clubs have been hit hard by injuries to their starting rotations. The Orioles have lost Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells, and John Means for the season. Thus, their rotation has its fair share of question marks after Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez. Meanwhile, the Dodgers currently have names like Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler, and Dustin May on the IL. Glasnow and Kershaw are set to return this week, but given their injury histories, L.A. could use another top-of-the-rotation arm for the playoffs. Skubal certainly fits the description.
While it is noteworthy that the Tigers are engaged in discussions about trading Skubal, president of baseball operations Scott Harris might just be doing his due diligence. In other words, the fact that these teams are talking does not mean Harris is seriously considering any offers. Indeed, several sources seem to think it is still highly doubtful Detroit will trade Skubal this season. According to Nightengale, Detroit will only move Skubal if the front office is “overwhelmed” by an offer. Gonzalez reports that sources familiar with the Tigers’ thinking believe a trade is unlikely. Verducci’s source offered similar information, though added that “everything has a price.” Evidently, the Dodgers and Orioles are trying to find the price that will convince Scott Harris to trade away his best player.
The Yankees might also be trying to find that price, as Nightengale reports they would be willing to part with top prospect Spencer Jones to land a young ace like Skubal or Crochet. Previously, Jones was thought to be all but untouchable, but the Yankees might be getting more desperate for upgrades. They have gone 10-20 over their last 30 games, falling out of first place in the AL East. Their starting rotation has a league-worst 6.02 ERA in that time.
Jones, a towering, power-hitting outfielder, is widely considered a top-100 prospect in the game. It’s easy to understand why the Yankees would be hesitant to trade him, but it’s equally clear why the Tigers would command a prospect of that caliber in a package for a 27-year-old ace with two and a half years of club control remaining.
Skubal claimed the final spot on MLBTR’s ranking of the top 50 trade candidates for the deadline. His low ranking has nothing to do with his talent but rather reflects how unlikely he is to be dealt. Still, there is a good reason he was included on the list at all. Several contenders are sure to make a push to acquire Skubal, and if he is dealt, it could be the biggest blockbuster of the summer.
Dodgers To Reinstate Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow
The Dodgers have been scrambling to fill their rotation lately but will get a couple of big reinforcements back in the coming days. Manager Dave Roberts tells reporters that right-hander Tyler Glasnow and left-hander Clayton Kershaw will each come off the injured list to start on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Kershaw is on the 60-day IL and will need a 40-man roster spot to be opened prior to taking the ball. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times was among those to relay the news on X.
It’s a pretty big moment for Kershaw, who is coming back from the most significant absence of his career. The southpaw went under the knife in November to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder. Though surgeries for pitchers have become quite commonplace in today’s baseball landscape, this was actually the first one for the veteran.
Kershaw was a workhorse earlier in his career but has had some health issues in recent seasons. From 2010 to 2015, he logged at least 198 innings for six straight years but hasn’t hit that number since. Recent years have seen him miss time here and there, often due to back issues, but the shoulder was the big concern in 2023. He somehow managed to toss 131 2/3 innings with a 2.55 earned run average despite his fastball velocity declining throughout the season but then was torched in his lone playoff start, only recording one out against the Diamondbacks while being charged with six earned runs.
The shoulder issue eventually require the aforementioned surgery in November and then he re-signed with the Dodgers in February. The deal is a two-year pact with the second season being a player option. Kershaw has a base salary of just $5MM in both years of the deal but with the ability to earn far more if he’s healthy. He gets an extra $1MM for getting to six starts, $1.5MM each for his seventh, eighth and ninth starts and then $2MM after his tenth. The Dodgers can’t get around this by using an opener, as a relief outing wherein Kershaw records at least nine outs also counts. At this point in the calendar, it’s still possible for Kershaw to unlock all of those bonuses and there are similar escalators for his 2025 option.
He began a rehab assignment by pitching three innings at the Single-A level on June 19. He was then shut down due to some shoulder soreness but Roberts downplayed the significance and Kershaw restarted his rehab assignment again more recently. He tossed three innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City last Saturday and then four innings on Friday, getting up to 67 pitches in the most recent outing. He’s now set to resume a big league career that already includes 2,712 2/3 innings with a 2.48 ERA.
Glasnow’s absence was far more mild, as he landed on the IL prior to the break due to some low back tightness, but the dual returns are significant for the Dodgers as they have had plenty of rotation challenges. Dustin May and Emmet Sheehan are each done for the year, with Tony Gonsolin likely to be in that camp as well. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a rotator cuff strain that landed him on the 60-day IL, meaning he can’t return before mid-August. Bobby Miller struggled enough to get optioned down to the minors while Walker Buehler was ineffective before landing on the IL with a hip issue.
Amid all of those issues, the Dodgers have been using a rotation of veteran James Paxton, rookies Gavin Stone, Justin Wrobleski and Landon Knack, as well as occasional bullpen games. Getting Glasnow and Kershaw into that mix obviously helps, and the club will be promoting prospect River Ryan soon as well.
Though that group is about to be much stronger than it was heading into the All-Star break, the Dodgers are still expected to pursue rotation upgrades prior to the July 30 deadline. They have been connected to Garrett Crochet of the White Sox for weeks now and Bob Nightengale of USA Today mentions the fit again this morning, also adding that the club has interest in Tarik Skubal of the Tigers.
Though the Dodgers’ interest in Crochet has been known for a while, Nightengale adds that the Dodgers have discussed a blockbuster deal that would see them also acquire outfielder Luis Robert Jr. and maybe even reliever Michael Kopech as well. That’s not necessarily a big surprise, as teams usually discuss all kinds of various trade scenarios, with many of them not coming close to fruition.
But that does align with recent comments from president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who suggested the Dodgers would be more focused on impact additions as opposed to marginal upgrades. The club has some holes but is understandably shooting for the stars at this point. They have made the playoffs in 11 straight years now and spent wildly in the offseason, adding Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani and others. Making the postseason for a 12th straight year won’t really count as an accomplishment for the club or its fans, so aiming high at the deadline and trying for a World Series seems to be the play.
Crochet would obviously fit the bill since he’s been one of the best pitchers in the league this year with a 3.02 ERA and 35.2% strikeout rate through 20 starts. There are some concerns about his workload since he’s already thrown more innings this year than in his entire professional career prior to this campaign, but he should be able to provide an impact even if moved to some kind of relief role down the stretch.
Robert also has some durability concerns as he’s only tallied 100 games in a season once, but that one occurrence was quite impressive. He got into 145 contests for the Sox last year and hit 38 home runs, stole 20 bases and provided quality defense in center field. Injuries have been a problem before and have cropped up again this year, as he missed two months due to a right hip flexor strain. But he’s been great in his limited time, with 11 homers and 11 steals in just 45 games. His 32.6% strikeout rate is a career high but his 10.2% walk rate is almost twice his career pace.
He could fit into a Dodger outfield that has seen Mookie Betts move to the infield and then head to the injured list. Teoscar Hernández is having a good year but it’s flimsy apart from that. Andy Pages and Miguel Vargas are doing well overall but most of their damage has come against lefties. Ideally, they would be platooned with Jason Heyward, but Heyward is also on the IL. James Outman is hitting just .153/.250/.258 on the year and was optioned to the minors for a while, only getting recalled when Heyward went on the shelf. Utility players Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernández and Cavan Biggio have also struggled.
In addition to their talents, both players would be incredibly attractive due to their financial situations. Crochet is in his first arbitration season but his injury absences have limited him to a salary of $800K this year. He has two arb seasons left after this one and will be in line for a decent raises, but from a very modest base. Robert is making $12.5MM this year, far more than Crochet but still a bargain for a player of his talents. He’ll then make $15MM next year with a pair of $20MM club options after that.
Each player has significant trade value in a vacuum but it would take a massive blockbuster haul for the Dodgers to get both. Their farm system is considered strong but whether a deal can come together or not will depend on what kind of price the Sox are asking for and what other teams are offering. But at 27-73 and with a farm system that isn’t especially well regarded, it makes sense the Sox are considering trading almost anyone and it seems they are doing just that.
Kopech can’t match either Crochet or Robert in terms of huge appeal, but he would have some value in his own right. After some inconsistent results as a starter, the Sox have been using him as their closer this year with some interesting but mixed results. His 5.05 ERA isn’t going to wow anyone and his 12.7% walk rate is concerning, but he has punched out 30.9% of batters faced. He’s only making $3MM this year and can be retained via arbitration for another season after this.
As for Skubal, it’s understandable why the Dodgers or any other club would be interested. He is a Cy Young candidate this year with a 2.41 ERA, 30.8% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate and 47.4% ground ball rate. He’s making a modest $2.65MM and has two seasons of club control beyond this one.
But that also makes him plenty appealing to the Tigers and it’s fair to wonder how available he is. The club once seemed buried in the standings but have been hot lately, winning 11 of their last 14 and climbing to within five games of a playoff spot. Getting Skubal away from Detroit was probably going to take a haul even when they were in seller position but it’s probably become more difficult in recent weeks.
Tigers Reinstate Tarik Skubal, Place Tyler Alexander On 60-Day IL
The Tigers announced that they have reinstated left-hander Tarik Skubal from the 60-day injured list. In a corresponding move, lefty Tyler Alexander is going the other way, having been placed directly onto the 60-day IL with a left lat/shoulder strain. Alexander’s IL placement is retroactive to July 3.
Skubal, 26, returns to the big league mound for the first time in almost a year. He was enjoying a breakout season last year, posting a 3.52 ERA through 21 starts with a 24.5% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 45.7% ground ball rate. Unfortunately, his last outing was August 1 of last year, after which he required flexor tendon surgery.
Skubal’s injury has been just one of many suffered by the Tigers’ rotation. Each of Beau Brieske, Alex Faedo, Casey Mize, Matthew Boyd, Eduardo Rodriguez and Spencer Turnbull are currently on the IL due to various ailments. Matt Manning also missed significant time, though he is now back with the club and Rodriguez is expected to be activated tomorrow. Those pitching injuries are a big reason why the club is sitting on a meager 37-46 record, but that’s still good enough to be just 5 games back in the American League Central. Perhaps some rotation stability brought by the returns of Skubal, Manning and Rodriguez can help the club stay afloat with the deadline now just weeks away.
As for Alexander, his involvement in today’s moves comes as a surprise. He wasn’t previously on the injured list and pitched on Sunday without a public indication he was hurt. Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic relays that Alexander won’t undergo an MRI until the inflammation goes down. Given that he’s been quickly placed on the 60-day IL and there’s less than three months left on the schedule, it seems fair to wonder if his season is in jeopardy. He has a 4.50 ERA this year in 44 innings, striking out 24.3% of opponents against a tiny 2.8% walk rate.
AL Central Notes: Twins, McKenzie, Tigers
Twins infielder Royce Lewis saw his career-long injury woes continue during yesterday’s game against the Orioles. The 24 year old suffered a strained left oblique while attempting to beat out a groundball. Lewis has played well in the big leagues when healthy, pairing a career 136 wRC+ in 140 plate appearances with strong defense on the left side of the infield for Minnesota. Unfortunately, staying healthy has proved to be a considerable challenge for the youngster, who’s played a total of just 82 games between the major and minor leagues since the end of the 2019 campaign. Per a club announcement, Lewis is headed to the 10-day injured list, though Phil Miller of the Star Tribune notes the club is hopeful he’ll only require a minimum stay on the shelf.
Replacing Lewis on the roster is Jose Miranda, the Twins’ Opening Day third baseman. After a solid rookie season in 2022 where he hit .268/.325/.426 in 483 plate appearances, Miranda scuffled through the first 35 games of his sophomore season. A brutal .220/.275/.318 slash line in 142 plate appearances was enough for Minnesota to demote Miranda to Triple-A, where the results (including a .686 OPS in 39 games) haven’t been much better. That being said, the 25 year old has begun to hit better in recent weeks, with a .300/.370/.456 slash line, a 10% walk rate and a 16% strikeout rate over his last 100 plate appearances. If Miranda has successfully recaptured the offensive form he flashed during his rookie season, he should help to boost a Twins offense that ranks just 18th in MLB with a wRC+ of 98.
More from around the AL Central…
- Guardians right-hander Triston McKenzie has been shut down from throwing since mid-June with a UCL sprain, but the club is still gathering information regarding their young starter before deciding on how to move forward, as manager Terry Francona told reporters (including Joe Noga of Cleveland.com). Francona suggests that an update on McKenzie’s status could come within the next few days now that the righty has received second opinions from Dr. Neal ElAttrache and Dr. Keith Meister. Any diagnosis involving the UCL- the ligament repaired during Tommy John surgery- is obviously a worrisome diagnosis, so it’s no surprise that the club is proceeding with care. McKenzie broke out in a big way for Cleveland last season, posting a 2.96 ERA in 191 1/3 innings of work, but has managed just two starts this season between his current injury and a strained teres major muscle he suffered during spring training.
- The Tigers are expected to welcome left-handers Tarik Skubal and Eduardo Rodriguez back into the rotation this coming week. Manager A.J. Hinch told reporters, including Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, that the club has Skubal starting on Tuesday and Rodriguez starting Wednesday written down “in pencil”, with a final evaluation of both hurlers required before they return to a major league mound. It’s great news for Detroit, as Rodriguez as been among the best starters in the sport this season; the veteran lefty’s 2.13 ERA across 11 starts this season is the lowest of any pitcher in the majors with at least 60 innings pitched this season. Skubal could provide the club a boost in his own right, as the lefty broke out last year with a 3.52 ERA and 2.96 FIP in 117 2/3 innings of work before he underwent season-ending surgery in August.
Tigers To Select Zach Logue
The Tigers appear set for a roster move, as left-hander Zach Logue is in the clubhouse this morning while fellow southpaw Joey Wentz does not have a locker, tweets Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News tweets that Detroit is set to make a 40-man roster move to add Logue prior to this afternoon’s game against the Rangers. Wentz, notably, has a minor league option remaining, so he’s not necessarily the 40-man roster casualty for this move.
Logue, 27, was a December waiver claim out of the Athletics organization, less than one year after Oakland acquired him in a four-player package that sent Matt Chapman to Toronto. The 2017 ninth-rounder was coming off a solid year between Double-A and Triple-A at the time of the swap but was clobbered for a 6.79 ERA in his first 57 MLB frames in 2022, to say nothing of a similarly concerning 8.12 ERA in 78 2/3 frames at Triple-A last year.
The Tigers wound up passing Logue through waivers themselves after initially claiming him, which allowed them to send him to Triple-A Toledo to begin the season without occupying a spot on the 40-man roster. It’s been a tough year for Logue with the Mud Hens, however. In 15 appearances (13 of them starts), he’s totaled 51 2/3 innings and been tagged for a grisly 5.92 ERA with a below-average 21.6% strikeout rate and a higher-than-average 12.4% walk rate.
Logue’s last appearance came out of the bullpen, but he tossed 87 pitches in a game as recently as June 20, so if the Tigers need him to make a spot start he should be able to do so without any real pitch restrictions. That said, he could also just add some length to the bullpen after what’s been a taxing week for Detroit’s relief corps. The Tiger bullpen had to cover 8 1/3 innings Monday after Matthew Boyd departed his start in the first inning. (Boyd later required Tommy John surgery.) Tigers relievers Mason Englert, Brendan White and Garrett Hill have all had outings of 40-plus pitches over the past three days. Infielder Jonathan Schoop took the mound and recorded the final four outs in last night’s blowout loss to Texas.
A 4 2/3-inning start from Wentz yesterday contributed to that bullpen workload, and short starts have unfortunately been all too common for the former top prospect as he tries to establish himself in the Detroit rotation. The 25-year-old Wentz, acquired from the Braves as part of the Shane Greene trade, has pitched 71 2/3 innings this season but been hammered for a 6.78 ERA in that time. Wentz has fanned 20% of his opponents against a 9.4% walk rate — both worse than league-average marks but neither seeming indicative of struggles of this magnitude.
However, Wentz is also allowing an average exit velocity of 90.6 mph and an opponents’ barrel rate of 11.2%, both of which align with his glaring home run issues this year. Wentz is averaging 2.01 homers per nine innings pitched, and paired with a somewhat elevated walk rate, it’s been a recipe for disaster. He’s only completed six innings twice in 15 starts, and six of his past eight starts have fallen shy of five innings.
With Wentz at least temporarily dropped from the rotation, the Tigers’ already muddled starting staff now even further lacks clarity. Rookie Reese Olson is taking the ball today and will be followed by veteran Michael Lorenzen tomorrow. The Tigers welcomed Matt Manning back from the injured list this week, and he’ll fill a third spot. However, Detroit starters Eduardo Rodriguez, Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Spencer Turnbull, Alex Faedo, Beau Brieske and the previously mentioned Boyd are all on the injured list. Manning is lined up to start Sunday’s game, but the Tigers’ Saturday starter is listed as TBD. If Logue isn’t needed in relief prior to that point, he’d presumably be one option to take that start. Petzold wrote yesterday that Skubal could be back as early as the first week of July, which would add a much-needed quality arm to that beleaguered staff.
AL Central Notes: Buxton, Crochet, Tigers
Twins outfielder Byron Buxton has dealt with many injuries throughout his career, which has led the Twins to use him exclusively as a designated hitter so far this season. However, it seems that was not simply a choice they made about protecting him from future injuries. “From the beginning of the year, he has not been physically able to play in the outfield,” manager Rocco Baldelli tells Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. “If he was, he would be out there. If we even thought that it was possible that he could play in the outfield right now, he would be out there.”
Buxton underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee in September of last year and seemingly recuperated enough to play but not enough that the Twins want him out on the grass. “Nothing has really gone up or down on that scale since the beginning of the year,” Baldelli said. “It hasn’t gotten closer. It hasn’t gotten further away. It’s basically in a similar spot. He is basically in a similar spot as he was in the beginning.”
Of course, the Twins could have opted to have Buxton start the season on the injured list and then activated him once he was 100% healthy, but it seems they preferred to have his bat in the lineup even without any defensive contributions and with diminished capabilities overall. Buxton’s sprint speed of 29.3 feet per second this year is roughly in line with last year’s 29.1 figure, though he has been steadily declining since hitting 30.9 in his rookie season. That seems to line up with the assessment that his knee hasn’t gotten fully healthy.
It might also be impacting him at the plate, as he’s hitting .209/.313/.428 on the year. That translates to a 106 wRC+, indicating he’s still been above average but below his own typical output. He hit .258/.316/.558 from 2019 to 2022 for a 136 wRC+. His .259 batting average on balls in play might point to some bad luck but his hard hit rate and average exit velocity are also down from last year. He’s also been struggling more of late, slashing just .149/.273/.266 since May 5. All hitters go through slumps, of course, but whether or not the knee is hampering him will be an interesting situation for the Twins to monitor as the season progresses.
Some more notes from the AL Central…
- The White Sox put left-hander Garrett Crochet on the injured list yesterday, retroactive to June 17, due to left shoulder inflammation. Right-hander Jimmy Lambert was reinstated from his own IL stint in a corresponding move. Crochet was drafted in 2020 and was quickly launched into the majors just a few months later. He’s since been able to post quality results out of the bullpen with a 2.69 ERA thus far, though injuries have also been an issue. He went on the IL in 2021 due to a back strain and then had his 2022 wiped out by Tommy John surgery. He returned this year but is now back on the IL after 10 outings. There hasn’t been anything to suggest this current injury is especially concerning but it’s yet another roadblock to him building up his workload. He has expressed a desire to return to starting pitching someday but has only been able to log 70 1/3 major league innings in his career thus far.
- The Tigers have faced a number of challenges in their rotation this year, which each of Eduardo Rodriguez, Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, Spencer Turnbull, Alex Faedo and Beau Brieske currently on the injured list. Given all of those absences, it’s hardly surprising that the club’s starters have a collective 4.91 ERA that places them 25th out of the 30 clubs in the league. Things could be on the verge of improving, however, with most of that group nearing returns. Chris McCosky of The Detroit News takes a look at the different hurlers and their rehabs, with Skubal and Manning seemingly the closest since they are already on rehab assignments at the Triple-A level. The Tigers are just 32-41 coming into today’s action but are only 3.5 games off the lead in the weak division. Getting some young starters back in the mix would surely help them stay afloat in that wide open competition. Manning had a 3.43 ERA last year but has been limited to just two outings so far this year due to a fractured fifth metatarsal in his right foot. Skubal had a 3.52 ERA last year but has been out of action since undergoing flexor tendon surgery in August.