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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Mets, Red Sox, Meek, Giants

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On this date eight years ago, Major League Baseball's 73rd All Star Game ended after 11 innings in a 7-7 tie when both sides ran out of pitchers. Shortly thereafter, commissioner Bud Selig ruled that the All Star Game will determine home field advantage in the World Series, a still unpopular decision. The American League has won every Midsummer Classic since then, and 12 of the last 13 overall (the tie being the one exception).

This year's All Star Game is still four days away, so here are some links to keep you occupied until then…

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.

Will The Yankees Still Look For Starting Pitching?

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It's not often that the Yankees miss out on a player, but after their seemingly all-but-finalized negotiations for Cliff Lee fell through earlier today, Lee is now property of the Texas Rangers.  While it's been reported that the Yankees have some hard feelings towards the Mariners over how the M's pulled out of their proposed deal, ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that some members of the Yankee front office have put Lee behind them.

The question is, will the Bronx Bombers move on to any other starting pitchers that are on the trade market?  Dan Haren, Ted Lilly and Roy Oswalt are among the big-name hurlers who could be wearing different uniforms by July 31, but just because New York didn't acquire Lee doesn't mean that the Yankees are still in the hunt for rotation help.

There is, after all, Javier Vazquez.  After a disastrous start to his second go-around with the Yankees, Vazquez seems to have gotten on track; he posted a 3.23 ERA in six June starts and held opponents to a .189 batting average over the month.  Had the Yankees picked up Lee, Vazquez either might have been traded, become the most over-qualified long reliever in baseball, or possibly stayed in the rotation had New York made a less-obvious move (like keeping Phil Hughes' innings under control by having Hughes replace the struggling Joba Chamberlain as Mariano Rivera's set-up man).

As ESPN's Jayson Stark observes, Lee has dominated the Yankees in recent years, most notably beating them twice in last year's World Series.  If anything, it seems like New York's pursuit of Lee was more about keeping the left-hander away from other teams than it was about adding a needed piece.  It's one thing to add a proven ace with an expiring contract like Lee, but quite another to add a starter with an expensive long-term deal (like Oswalt or Haren) or a pitcher like Lilly who isn't a clear enough upgrade over Vazquez to justify trading the prospects that the Cubs would want in return.

Mets Will Turn To Ted Lilly

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Cliff Lee is coming to New York, but he isn't the left-handed starter the Mets are focused on. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter) that the Mets will 'turn strongly' to Cubs starter Ted Lilly now that Lee is on the brink of joining the Yankees. As Sherman explains here, the Mets do like Roy Oswalt – they just aren't comfortable paying the vast majority of his salary and giving up good prospects.

Lilly, a free agent after the season, has about $5.6MM remaining on his 2010 contract. The 34-year-old has a 3.76 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 and projects as a Type A free agent. 

Jon Heyman of SI.com says the Mets are more likely to add Lilly than Oswalt or Dan Haren, but says the Cubs have yet to make their left-hander available (Twitter link). Heyman points out that Lilly's average fastball velocity has dropped from 87 to 86 mph.

Cliff Lee Rumors: Thursday

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The Twins aren’t close to a deal for Cliff Lee, but the Rangers are working hard to acquire him and a number of other clubs are involved. The Mariners are seeking a monster return for Lee, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com and Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Click here to check out yesterday’s Lee rumblings and check back throughout the day for the latest on the lefty:

  • MLB.com's Mark Sheldon reports that talks between Seattle and the Reds have yet to "hit the serious stages." No formal proposals have been exchanged between the two teams.
  • Lee appeared on ESPN 710's Brock and Salk earlier today, and said that he and his agent approached the Mariners about an extension before the season only to be told that the team wasn't "going to go down that road."
  • The Mariners are interested in some of the game’s top prospects and young players, sources tell Jon Heyman of SI.com. Their wish list includes catching prospects Jesus Montero (Yankees) and Wilson Ramos (Twins) plus Justin Smoak and Wade Davis. A competing team says the Twins are a “real” threat to acquire Lee, though we’re not accustomed to seeing them give up lots of talent at the deadline.
  • A rival executive told Heyman that the Rangers discussed Chris Davis and Jarrod Saltalamacchia in a possible Lee trade. As we heard earlier today, the Mariners prefer Smoak and would want more than Davis and Saltalamacchia.
  • The Mariners asked the Yankees for at least three prospects, including Montero, according to Heyman.
  • B.J. Upton’s name has come up, but Heyman suggests the Rays haven't offered him to the Mariners.
  • Larry Stone of the Seattle Times hears rumblings that the White Sox, who just lost Jake Peavy to the DL, are at least 'kicking tires' on Lee. That would not be a surprise given Kenny Williams' track record.
  • One MLB GM told Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that the Rangers are the favorites to acquire Lee. The Rangers don’t want to include Justin Smoak in a trade and at least one rival executive believes they would be ‘crazy’ to do so. The Rangers’ desire to hold onto Smoak is one of the biggest barriers remaining between the two teams. If the Rangers trade Smoak, they could call on Chris Davis, who has a .961 OPS in Triple A.
  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports hears the Mets mentioned with Lee less and less frequently (Twitter link). The Mariners are looking to obtain a major league-ready power bat, but the Mets don't want to part with Ike Davis. 
  • Jack Curry of the YES Network says the Yankees are being thorough and will inquire on Lee, just as they would on any available player of his caliber (Twitter link). That doesn't mean the Yanks are willing to out-bid everyone else, however.
  • The Rangers and Mariners continue to discuss a possible Lee trade, according to Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com. The Rangers have spoken to numerous teams to figure out what it will take to improve the club for the stretch run.
  • In case there was any doubt remaining about the Mariners' asking price, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer clears it up. An insider tells Fay that "it's going to take a ton," but Fay does not get the sense that a trade is about to happen.
  • The Rangers have financial restrictions, but MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan reports that they have some money ‘tucked away’ for making moves. GM Jon Daniels is ‘fully engaged’ in the Lee trade talk.
  • We know a lot of teams are interested in Lee, but how many? “Pretty much every team within five games of the playoffs," a source tells Ken Davidoff of Newsday (That's 17 teams). We’ve heard that the Mets may have trouble adding payroll, but GM Omar Minaya and his front office are operating as though they can add salary. That means Lee and Ted Lilly could be targets for the Mets.

What The Elias Rankings Mean For Trade Candidates

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Many of this year's trade candidates share a distinguishing characteristic: they are about to become free agents. After the season, their teams will decide whether to offer arbitration and have a chance at top picks in next year's draft. A player's ranking can contribute to or detract from his trade value, so let's take a look at some of this year's trade candidates and see where they place under our reverse-engineered Elias rankings. 

We'll start with some trade candidates who project as Type A free agents. If these players decline arbitration offers to sign elsewhere, their former teams will receive two top picks in the 2011 draft. These players are sometimes more inclined to accept arbitration, since their Type A status can intimidate would-be suitors who don't want to surrender a pick (just ask Juan Cruz and Orlando Hudson).

It's important to note that teams don't necessarily give first rounders up to sign the players below. The first 15 picks are protected and sometimes teams sign more than one Type A player. Say the Red Sox sign Adam Dunn (75.8 ranking) and Scott Downs (74.6 ranking) and both were offered arb. The Nationals would get Boston's top pick and the Blue Jays would get their second-best pick because Dunn ranks higher than Downs. In that instance, Downs only costs the Red Sox a second rounder.

Once a team signs one Type A free agent, the cost of signing a second and a third drops, since the club is giving up lesser picks. Rafael Soriano (88.9), Vladimir Guerrero (88.6), Carl Crawford (85.5), Javier Vazquez (79.0) and Adrian Beltre (78.9) could all get arbitration offers this winter, so Type As, especially lower-ranked players, don't always cost a first rounder. With that in mind, here are some trade candidates who currently have Type A status:

  • Cliff Lee (91.8) – He is getting an arbitration offer and turning it down. Lee's Type A status boosts his trade value.
  • Jayson Werth (86.0) – Same goes for Werth.
  • David DeJesus (78.3)- Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs argued yesterday that the Royals shouldn't offer arbitration, since DeJesus would accept. It's entirely possible that the Royals can get more value for DeJesus in a trade, but I don't think DeJesus would necessarily accept arbitration. He will easily be a top-five outfielder if his team lets him hit free agency instead of picking up his $6MM option. And if he accepts? The team has an above-average outfielder on an affordable one-year deal.
  • Adam Dunn (75.8) – He will get an arbitration offer and will probably turn it down. Dunn's Type A status boosts his trade value.
  • Scott Downs (74.6) – Earlier this week, I suggested the Blue Jays could offer Downs arbitration and either collect the picks or pay him $5MM or so in 2011. There's a good chance that Downs accepts an offer of arbitration, but the chance at two top picks probably makes that a risk worth taking. 
  • Miguel Tejada (74.4) – It's hard to imagine teams forfeiting picks to sign Tejada. It seems unlikely that a team would offer arbitration. Tejada's Type A status doesn't affect his trade value (and he is only a couple points away from becoming a Type B).
  • Ted Lilly (74.3) – Lilly will be a top free agent starter after the season, so the Cubs will likely offer arbitration. Lilly's Type A status boosts his trade value.

And here are some players who currently project as Type B free agents. These players will bring their former teams a supplementary round pick if they decline arbitration to sign elsewhere. But teams don't have to give up their picks to sign Type Bs, which makes these players appealing as free agents.

  • John Buck – J. P. Arencibia is Toronto's catcher of the future, but it's easy to imagine the Blue Jays (or another team) offering Buck arbitration after the season. It worked last year, when the Jays got a supplemental rounder for losing Rod Barajas. Buck wouldn't make much through arbitration, so his Type B status boosts his trade value.
  • Jose Guillen – It's extremely hard to imagine the Royals offering arbitration. His Type B status does not affect his trade value.
  • Mike Lowell – Same goes for Lowell.
  • Kevin Millwood – And for Millwood.
  • Jason Frasor – Frasor makes only $2.65MM this year, so he wouldn't be making an overwhelming amount even if he accepted arbitration. Obtaining a pick for Frasor would be a plus, so his Type B status helps his trade value.
  • Derrek Lee – Given Lee's struggles and salary, it's hard to imagine his team offering arbitration.
  • Cristian Guzman – Guzman makes $8MM this year and though players aren't guaranteed raises via this kind of arbitration, Guzman isn't even worth his current salary on the open market. An arbitration offer seems unlikely, so his status doesn't affect his trade value.
  • Octavio Dotel –  Like Frasor, Dotel could see an offer of arbitration, depending on how he finishes the season, so his Type B status helps his trade value. The Pirates have a $4MM option for Dotel that becomes mutual if he is traded.
  • Aaron Heilman – It seems unlikely that the D'Backs would feel comfortable offering Heilman arbitration, given his inconsistent performance in 2010, so his status doesn't help his trade value.

Cubs Are Getting More Serious About Trades

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The Cubs have yet to declare themselves buyers or sellers despite a 37-47 record, but Ken Davidoff of Newsday tweets that the team is starting to get "more serious" about making deals. Davidoff also mentions that the Mets "like the idea" of adding Ted Lilly to their rotation while assuming the $6MM left on his contract in order to give up fewer prospects in a trade. 

Lilly is just one of several pieces the Cubs could shop, along with Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot, Jeff Baker, Derrek Lee, Kosuke Fukudome, and Xavier Nady. The Giants could have interest in Theriot and Chicago tried to push Fukudome on the Red Sox, but nothing has materialized just yet. 

The Mets have expressed interest in adding a quality starter, and Lilly would certainly fit the bill. There is some uncertainty about the team's ability to add payroll however, so whether or not they can actually take on Lilly's salary remains to be seen.

Odds & Ends: Phillies, Orioles, Nats, Rangers, Lowell

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Monday night linkage..

Free Agent Stock Watch: June 2010 Edition

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Players only have six months to establish their value on the free agent market, so every month counts. Let's take a look at some (not all, but some) of the upcoming free agents who have seen their stock rise or fall this June. First, a few players who have seen their free agent stock drop:

  • Livan Hernandez – It wasn't an awful month for Hernandez, who posted a 5.12 ERA in June. But he had an improbably low 2.15 ERA entering the month and June showed that he won't be able to sustain that mark with peripherals like his (4.8 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 in June).
  • David Eckstein – Eckstein didn't have a bad month, either. He batted .273/.308/.323 and the Padres stayed in the race, but it wasn't long ago that Eckstein appeared to be raising his free agent stock with a standout all-around season.
  • Kevin Millwood – It was a rough month for Millwood, who had a sub-4.00 ERA at the end of May, even though he had yet to win at that point. In June, Millwood had an 8.78 ERA and opponents posted a 1.032 OPS against him.
  • Ty Wigginton – There's no question that Wigginton, one of Baltimore's top trade chips, had a poor June. He didn't hit a home run and posted a .207/.298/.256 line. He broke out with two exceptional months in April and May, but his stock has since fallen considerably.

And some players who are in position to demand better deals thanks to a big month:

  • Cliff Lee – Lee's strong play suggests his early-season abdominal injury is no longer an issue. He has a 1.76 ERA this month and has rattled off four complete game wins in his last five starts. Impressive. No one knows where Lee will be playing August 1st, but this much is certain: he helped his free agent stock this June.
  • Ted Lilly – Lilly posted a 2.57 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 this month, solidifying his place among the top free agent starters this winter.
  • Hiroki Kuroda – Back in May, Kuroda seemed poised to attract interest from many clubs after the season. He has posted 8.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 2.67 ERA this month against some stiff competition (the Braves, Cardinals, Reds, Yankees and Red Sox).
  • Adrian Beltre - Beltre, who will presumably opt out of his contract and seek a multi-year deal this winter, has established himself as a legitimate MVP candidate. He has played strong defense and hit .378/.425/.684 in June.
  • Manny Ramirez and Victor Martinez would have been candidates for this list were it not for their recent injuries.

All stats are as of the morning of June 30th. This list is not intended to include all 2011 free agents who have had noteworthy months. Feel free to add more players in the comments.

Mets’ Targets Include Cliff Lee, Ted Lilly

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The Mets will be in on Seattle ace Cliff Lee – that appears certain.  Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Omar Minaya has notified Jack Zduriencik of his interest, and the Mets are scouting Lee's starts.

Contrary to a Kevin Burkhardt report last night, Sherman says the Mets "would not need a negotiating window to sign Lee long-term even if it includes top prospect Jenrry Mejia in a package."  However, between the injuries to potential trade chips Mejia and Angel Pagan and the ownership approval needed to pull the trigger, Minaya faces hurdles in acquiring Lee.

Sherman writes "the Mets have little interest" in Roy Oswalt and Fausto Carmona.  Instead, Cubs southpaw Ted Lilly might head up their list of Lee alternatives.  Lilly has been excellent since signing a four-year, $40MM deal with the Cubs in December of '06.  The contract has about $6.4MM remaining.  Though Lilly profiles as a Type A free agent after the season, an arbitration offer is in question.  I doubt Lilly's limited no-trade provision will be an obstacle, as he's probably eager to return to the playoffs.  The Cubs have about a month to decide whether to cash in their chips, and Lilly is their best one. 

Rangers Have Room For Rental Player

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According to GM Jon Daniels, the Rangers have room in their budget to trade for a player whose contract expires at season's end, tweets Jim Bowden of Sirius XM Radio. However, in a second tweet, Bowden notes that the club would require the court's permission to acquire a player whose contract runs past 2010.

The news is a mixed bag for Rangers fans who are curious to know how the team's sale and a recent judge's ruling will affect the club's ability to make trades. On one hand, Daniels makes it clear that acquiring an impact pitcher like Cliff Lee is still a possibility. Conversely, trading for a player with a multi-year contract like Roy Oswalt's would be more difficult to pull off. On top of that, if the Rangers were to trade for Lee or another player whose contract expires this year, they'd essentially be renters, as signing anyone to an extension seems unlikely at the moment.

Ted Lilly, Kevin Millwood, Ben Sheets, and Jake Westbrook are a few other potentially available arms who aren't under contract past this season.

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