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Tim Lincecum

Make Or Break Year: Tim Lincecum

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Critics have long believed that Tim Lincecum's unconventional mechanics wouldn't stand the test of time in the Major Leagues, but the Giants right-hander could retire tomorrow having more than proved his worth.  Lincecum has two NL Cy Young Awards and two World Series titles to go along with his career 3.31 ERA, 9.8 K/9 rate and three NL strikeout crowns over just six seasons in the bigs.

Though Lincecum ended the year with another championship ring, he spent his postseason in the unfamiliar position of relief pitcher.  Lincecum was relegated to the bullpen following a troubling 2012 season that saw him post a 5.18 ERA, 4.4 BB/9 rate and 1.1 HR/9 rate (all career worsts), plus a league-leading 17 wild pitches and 107 earned runs allowed. Uspw_6695582

While Lincecum had a few very rough patches during the 2010 and 2011 campaigns, nobody expected him to completely lose his form.  The advanced metrics paint a less-grim picture of his 2012 performance (Lincecum posted a 4.18 FIP, 3.82 xFIP, 3.97 SIERA) but he also lost almost two miles off his fastball.  Lincecum dropped to career-low average speed of 90.4 mph, down from 92.2 mph in 2011.

Lincecum looked sharp out of the bullpen during the postseason and, combined with those decent advanced metric numbers, there is some reason to believe that he can bounce back and become "the Freak" once again in 2013.  If he doesn't, however, he will leave millions of dollars on the table in free agency, as Lincecum is set to hit the open market next winter. 

Lincecum resisted signing a long-term extension with San Francisco, opting instead to take shorter contracts that he said kept him more focused.  The tactic didn't cost Lincecum in the short term, as he signed a pair of two-year deals with the Giants that covered his four arbitration-eligible years (Lincecum was a Super Two) and earned $63.5MM over the 2010-13 seasons. Lincecum reportedly turned down a five-year, $100MM extension from the Giants last winter, a move that he could regret if he struggles against in 2013 and faces a drastically lowered price tag in free agency.

If nothing else, Lincecum's poor 2012 cost him a chance at a mega-deal akin to the contracts signed by Felix Hernandez ($175MM), Zack Greinke ($147MM) or Cole Hamels ($144MM) within the last year.  Even a vintage Lincecum season wouldn't earn him quite as much as the $112.5MM extension teammate Matt Cain signed with the Giants last April.  Though Lincecum will be just 29 years old by season's end, those persistent whispers about his durability will surface again and keep him from cashing in to his fullest extent, perhaps even keeping him under $100MM in guaranteed money.

Still, a ceiling of "under $100MM" is nothing to sneeze at, so Lincecum can regain a lot of value with another big year.  A repeat of 2012, however, would put Lincecum in line for a short-term deal whether he liked it or not.  His track record would only get him so far, and Lincecum would likely have to settle for an incentive-filled one- or two-year contract (or maybe two years plus an option). 

There's also the chance the Giants could make Lincecum a qualifying offer if he has another poor season.  Such a one-year pact would be worth between $13.5-$14MM and make sense for both sides — Lincecum would get another chance to prove himself in a familiar environment and the Giants would see if they could salvage a final good season from their former ace at a relative bargain price.  Even if Lincecum rebounded and subsequently left after 2014, the Giants would now be in position to reap draft pick compensation for Lincecum if he turned down another qualifying offer and signed elsewhere.  That would get the Giants something for a Lincecum departure, aside from some relief that he passed on that big extension.

The 2013-14 offseason could be something of a transformative one for the Giants, as they'll have around $56MM coming off the books due to the expiring contracts of Lincecum, Barry Zito and Hunter Pence.  Some of that money could be spent on extensions for Buster Posey or Pablo Sandoval, or GM Brian Sabean could look to make a splash in the free agent market.  Lincecum has been a huge part of the Giants' recent past, and his 2013 season will likely determine if he is part of the team's future.

Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski/USA Today Sports Images

Giants Could Re-Sign Lincecum

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Tim Lincecum struggled often in 2012, but the Giants haven’t given up on him long-term, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (Twitter links). In fact, the prospect of re-signing Lincecum next offseason, when he’s eligible for free agency for the first time, figured into some of the Giants’ budgetary decisions this year.

Lincecum will hit free agency after earning $22MM in 2013. The 28-year-old has two Cy Young Awards and two World Series titles on his resume, but he struggled throughout the 2012 regular season, posting a 5.18 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 4.4 BB/9 and a 45.9% ground ball rate in 186 innings. Lincecum, a client of Beverly Hills Sports Council, led the league in wild pitches and earned runs during the regular season before contributing out of the bullpen during the Giants' World Series run. His average fastball velocity dipped to a career low 90.4 mph during the regular season.

Quick Hits: Verlander, Hamilton, Rangers, Lincecum

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It’s not a huge surprise, but Tigers president and General Manager Dave Dombrowski said that he would like to make Justin Verlander a Tiger for life, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  The right-hander still has two years remaining on his five-year, $80MM deal and extending him won’t be cheap.  However, the Tigers made a similar move when they inked Miguel Cabrera to his eight-year, $152.3MM deal two years before he was set to hit the open market.  Here’s more from around baseball as the Giants celebrate their Game 2 victory..

  • People familiar with the Brewers’ thinking told Heyman that the club is seriously considering a run at Josh Hamilton this winter.  Owner Mark Attanasio declined comment on the possibility, but the team is said to believe that Milwaukee is a viable market for the slugger.  The Brewers would obviously have a hard time competing with major market teams for Hamilton, but it helps that the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers likely won’t be in the mix.
  • Rangers General Manager Jon Daniels said that he sees some similarities between what his club did in 2007 and the Red Sox’s blockbuster deal this year, writes Alex Speier of WEEI.com.  Texas traded star first baseman Mark Teixeira to the Braves in the summer of 2007, netting the club Elvis Andrus and freedom to build the roster.  Daniels, who was a guest on WEEI’s Red Sox Hot Stove show, also said that he doesn’t expect to trade Andrus or Kinsler despite having Jurickson Profar close to being major league-ready.
  • Despite his struggles in 2012, General Manager Brian Sabean ruled out the possibility of Tim Lincecum moving to the bullpen next season, tweets Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.  Lincecum is entering his walk year in the 2013 season and will earn $22MM.
  • One person connected to the Giants told Heyman that there’s no way that Lincecum will be traded, in part because of how the fans in San Francisco respond to him.
  • Commissioner Bud Selig told reporters before tonight’s game that he has spoken with Blue Jays president Paul Beeston and has yet to hear a complaint from the organization regarding possible tampering with manager John Farrell, tweets Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

Assessing Early Returns On Recent Giants Extensions

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No MLB team finalized more extensions this offseason than the Giants, who locked up five of their top players. General manager Brian Sabean committed more than $200MM in future salaries in the four-month period from the beginning of January to the beginning of April. The extensions promised to solidify the team’s rotation long-term and cap the future earnings of a pair of arbitration eligible All-Stars. 

For the most part, the extensions have worked for the team. Tim Lincecum's disappointing season is the largest blemish on an otherwise encouraging set of contracts for San Francisco. 

Matt Cain - Giants (PW)

Lincecum, whose early-career accomplishments assured him of a substantial raise, signed a two-year, $40.5MM contract extension to cover his final two arbitration years. Though he has pitched better lately, his ERA sits at 5.30 in what has been the most disappointing season of his MLB career. It’d be understandable if the Giants are relieved Lincecum didn’t accept their $100MM extension offer before the season. In that context, $40.5MM isn’t so expensive. Still, if the team had gone year to year with Lincecum, he wouldn’t have been locked in for a $22MM salary in 2013; a non-tender would have been possible.

Three other Giants starters have exceeded expectations since signing multiyear deals. Vogelsong, who signed a two-year, $8.3MM contract in January, is repeating last year's success. He has a 2.85 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 on his way toward a career high in innings pitched. Vogelsong would have been a free agent after the 2012 season if the Giants hadn't locked him up. They'll surely be glad to have him back for just $5MM in 2013 (the extension also includes a 2014 club option).

Like Vogelsong, Madison Bumgarner has replicated his 2011 success. The 23-year-old left-hander has inserted himself into the NL Cy Young Award race by posting a 2.83 ERA with five times as many strikeouts as walks in 171 2/3 innings this year. He obtained a record deal for pitchers with one-plus years of MLB service (five-years, $35MM), so it’s not as though Bumgarner obtained anything less than full value back in April. But this deal could hardly be going better for the Giants.

Matt Cain also obtained a record-setting contract this spring. He obtained a five-year, $112.5MM contract that established a record for right-handed pitchers. He's earning Cy Young Award consideration again after pitching a perfect game and posting a 2.83 ERA in 174 2/3 innings. If Cain had reached the free agent market this offseason, he would be the most sought-after pitcher available. The Giants could have re-signed him, of course, but not without spending considerably more than they did in April.

Lastly, Pablo Sandoval's play has justified his new three-year, $17.15MM contract — at least when he's been on the field. Although he spent time on the disabled list with a strained hamstring and a fractured hamate bone, he does have an .821 OPS in 294 plate appearances. This extension had limited upside for the Giants in the first place, since it didn’t buy out any free agent years or include any club options.

For now the Giants are presumably focused on maintaining their division lead over the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. A few months from now, once the most chaotic part of the offseason has ended, Sabean and the rest of the San Francisco front office will encounter a familiar challenge: it'll be time to consider extensions for a new set of players led by All-Star catcher Buster Posey.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

NL West Notes: Lincecum, Bauer, Rockies

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The Dodgers, who have averaged 85 wins per year in six seasons under GM Ned Colletti, are on pace for 97 wins despite their poor showing against the Athletics this week. Here are the latest NL West links…

  • Giants right-hander Tim Lincecum told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that he intends to make some changes to his pitching approach "It's almost like I'm pitching backwards now," he said. "Like I'm a wuss thrower. I've got to start utilizing my fastball." Nightengale discussed the differences between this version of Lincecum and the two-time Cy Young Award winner in a detailed piece. "It's hard to believe it's the same guy,” one scout said.
  • The Diamondbacks are "in no rush" to promote Trevor Bauer, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic notes. Bauer visited with some Diamondbacks officials yesterday to familiarize himself with the organization. But the team is “not trying to clone people here” GM  Kevin Towers said in reference to Bauer’s quirks.
  • Rockies manager Jim Tracy told Jake Kaplan of MLB.com that it's hard to get a read on the effectiveness of the team's four-man rotation so early on. “What we've seen the first two days is real similar to what I've been dealing with an awful lot this season," Tracy said.
  • Dave Cameron of FanGraphs proposed an alternate method of managing a pitching staff earlier in the week, in case you missed it.

Quick Hits: Draft, Sizemore, Royals, CBA, Greinke

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Some links from around MLB…

  • ESPN's Keith Law posted a list of the top 100 prospects in this year's amateur draft. High school outfielder Byron Buxton and high school shortstop Carlos Correa top the list.
  • "I love this game and I don't see myself calling it quits anytime soon," said Indians outfielder Grady Sizemore to MLB.com's Jordan Bastian (Twitter link). Sizemore is currently on the DL with a back issue, the latest problem in a long line of injuries in recent years.
  • Royals owner David Glass says he hasn't spoken to anyone about selling his team despite rumors to the contrary, according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. "I've not talked to anyone, nor has any of my family talked to anyone," he said.
  • Ben Badler of Baseball America explains how teams and player representatives are working to side-step the international spending restrictions imposed under baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement. MLB is aware of the loopholes and would object more strongly to some than others.
  • Recent extensions talks haven’t taken place for Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels or Tim Lincecum, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets. Greinke and Hamels are eligible for free agency this offseason, while Lincecum is under team control through 2013.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports points out that Edinson Volquez of the Padres looks like a trade candidate (Twitter link). However, six of the right-hander’s seven starts have been at Petco Park, a generally forgiving environment for pitchers.\

Mike Axisa contributed to this post.

NL West Notes: Ethier, Lincecum

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Dodgers left-hander Sandy Koufax struck out 18 Cubs on this date in 1962, tying Bob Feller for a share of what was then the single game strikeout record. Here are today's links from the NL West…

  • Dodgers GM Ned Colletti said he’s "always been inclined to keep" Andre Ethier, Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times reports. Agent Nez Balelo has said his client is open to discussing a long-term contract during the season, assuming the incoming ownership group takes over the team at the end of the month. Colletti said yesterday that he has already talked to the team's new owners about an extension for Ethier.
  • Scouts wonder if Tim Lincecum’s right hip is bothering him, but the Giants right-hander told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that, “none of that is true.” Though Lincecum is off to a slow start, he prefers to focus on the positives. “We get caught up in negatives so much and so easily, especially with so many games,” he said. Lincecum is under contract through 2013, and remains a candidate for a longer-term deal.

Quick Hits: Marlins, Jeter, Lincecum, Chisenhall

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In a piece inspired by early-season injuries to key relievers Tom Verducci of SI.com points out that closers tend to be inefficient investments. "No one wants to admit it," he writes, "but the modern bullpen is a failure." Here are the rest of today's links…

  • Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that he likes what he has seen from manager Ozzie Guillen despite last week's controversial remarks. “He’s very good for here," Loria said. "Excellent. Not only for here, for any team."
  • When the Yankees signed Derek Jeter to a three-year, $51MM contract two offseasons ago, they felt it was an overpay, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. But the shortstop played tremendously down the stretch in 2011 and has started the 2012 season well.
  • ESPN.com’s Buster Olney suggests the Giants will likely want to see Tim Lincecum rebound from his early-season struggles before offering him an extension at market value.
  • Indians manager Manny Acta told Jim Bowden on MLB Network Radio that top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall remains Cleveland's future third baseman and won’t become trade bait this summer (Twitter link, audio here).

Giants Touch Base With Posey, Lincecum On Contracts

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Giants VP of baseball operations Bobby Evans said he contacted Buster Posey's agent today in regards to a possible multiyear extension for the catcher, and also told Tim Lincecum's agent that the right-hander is also still in the team's plans.  (Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area and Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweet the details from Evans' talk with media members.)

The Giants and Posey first talked a possible extension in the spring and now that Posey has shown himself to be apparently recovered from the broken leg that prematurely ended his 2011 season, it's no surprise that the club has revisited locking up its best young position player.  Carlos Santana's recent five-year, $21MM extension with the Indians will probably serve as a reference point for what a Posey extension might look like.

As for Lincecum, it sounds as if Evans was simply making a courtesy call to indicate that nothing had changed in regards to the Giants' desire to sign Lincecum to a long-term contract.  "Obviously we'll be looking toward that in the future," Evans said.  Earlier today, Schulman wrote that the added cost certainty achieved by signing Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain to extensions increases the chances of the Giants also extending Lincecum.

Despite the Giants' recent spate of moves, it may yet be a while before we see Posey or Lincecum extended.  Evans said he didn't expect any negotiations to take place during the season but "there will be a time we address that" (Twitter link).

Bay Area Notes: San Jose, Bumgarner, Lincecum

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Long-time Athletics minor league roving instructor Ron Plaza passed away last night at age 77, according to a team media release.  Plaza had been with the A's since 1983, and also worked for the Reds and Cardinals organizations during his 61-year career in baseball as a player, manager and coach.  We at MLBTR send our condolences to Plaza's family, friends and colleagues.

Here's the latest from both the A's and the Giants…

  • The Athletics aim to put their new stadium and proposed move to San Jose on the agenda for next month's owners meetings, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.  By forcing the other owners to vote on the move, the A's would finally get some resolution on an issue that has dragged on for three years.  Neither A's owner Lew Wolff or GM Billy Beane would comment on the story.
  • One of Slusser's sources (Twitter link) isn't certain if the A's will be successful in getting their case heard at the owners meetings.  It will ultimately be up to Bud Selig, who decides on the meetings' agenda.
  • Madison Bumgarner's extension with the Giants is "a win for everyone involved," writes Dave Cameron for Fangraphs.
  • The Giants now have greater cost certainty with Bumgarner and Matt Cain both locked up to multiyear contracts, which Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter) feels will make the team likelier to sign Tim Lincecum to a long-term deal "if he has a good year."  Lincecum signed a two-year pact with the Giants in January that puts him on pace to hit free agency after the 2013 season.
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