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Arbitration Breakdown: Todd Frazier & Eric Hosmer

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Two corner infielders, Todd Frazier and Eric Hosmer, enter arbitration this offseason after completing two-year deals that paid them each $8.25MM in the latter year (including a prorated portion of Frazier’s signing bonus). Both had solid years as power hitters, and my model projects each to receive a raise of $5.25MM for Frazier and $5.05MM for Hosmer, to $13.5MM and $13.3MM, respectively).

Only ten position players in the past decade have received additional single-year salaries through arbitration after receiving multi-year deals earlier in their eligibility. Most of these players had poor seasons, and only five of these ten have met these criteria since 2009.

As a result, it’s difficult to find good comparables for the situations in which Frazier and Hosmer find themselves. Perhaps the best match would be Prince Fielder, who received a $4MM raise in 2011 after a solid season in which he batted .261 with 32 homers and 83 RBIs. Frazier actually had more home runs last season but a worse average, posting a .225/40/98 line with 15 steals, while Hosmer was very similar at .266/25/104.

It’s rare for six-year old cases to be used in arbitration hearings, so Fielder is probably not a great match. However, applying some salary inflation to his $4MM raise suggests the model’s projections for Frazier and Hosmer are probably somewhat reasonable.

We can also check if players going to arbitration following multi-year deals fare better or worse than players who have been going year to year, and the evidence here suggests looking for regular comparables among the year-to-year group is reasonable. The average raise for the ten players coming off multi-year deals was $1.6MM, compared to projected earnings of $1.5MM. This difference is not significant enough to worry about a systematic bias. Therefore, looking for comparables in the year-to-year group makes sense to pin things down more precisely.

Of course, it is rare for power hitters to go year to year at all, so few players emerge as possibilities. No one in the last three years has entered their third or fourth year of arbitration eligibility coming off a platform year with 20 home runs and 90 runs batted in. A couple players did so in 2013, including Chase Headley, who received a $5.1MM raise after a .286/31/115 campaign with 17 steals. Hunter Pence only got a $3.4MM raise after his .253/24/104 campaign the year prior. Pence could prove a reasonable comparable for Hosmer’s .266/25/104, which suggests Hosmer’s $5.05MM projected raise is probably high. However, Headley clearly did not do all that much better than Hosmer in his platform year, and both cases are old, so it remains possible that Headley is the better comparable and a $5MM raise is reasonable.

Frazier’s case is tricky in that no one in the last decade has entered their third or fourth year of arbitration eligibility with a batting average below .260 and at least 30 home runs. Although Frazier’s batting average was much poorer, I have found that batting average is a somewhat less important criteria than ran home run totals in arbitration, so I believe Frazier’s case is strong. I think Headley’s 60 points of batting average probably roughly offset the nine fewer home runs, and a $5MM raise or slightly higher does seem more believable for Frazier.

Three players in the last decade have gotten $5MM raises as part of multi-year deals—Jose Bautista, Carlos Pena, and Matt Kemp. However, none of them are great comparables, since they all had much better numbers than either Frazier and Hosmer. Additionally, multi-year deals are generally not used in arbitration hearings, although they may be in these instances where comparables are tough to find.

Ultimately, I think both Frazier and Hosmer have good cases to top Fielder’s $4MM raise and either could make a case for being near Headley’s $5.1MM raise. I suspect Hosmer may fall short of his projected $5.05MM raise, and get somewhere closer to $4.5MM—which would put him around $12.75MM. Frazier’s 40 home runs allow for more upside, and his $5.25MM projected raise to $13.5MM seems like a reasonable estimate.

Trade Candidate: Todd Frazier

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There’s no denying that the White Sox are engaged in an aggressive rebuilding plan. After all, the organization has now traded away two of its best, established MLB assets in Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, and is said to be engaged in talks to do the same with Jose Quintana. If those affordable, controllable players can be had, then surely it stands to reason that more expensive, shorter-term assets are also on the table.

While players like David Robertson and Melky Cabrera make good sense as trade chips, perhaps no single player on the ChiSox roster carries a “trade me” sign quite as visible as that of third baseman Todd Frazier. Unlike Robertson, he’s entering the final year of contract control. And unlike Cabrera — who’s owed $15MM in the final year of his deal — Frazier is still projects to be useful in the field.

Frazier did take a big step back in the eyes of defensive metrics last year after consistently rating as a plus gloveman at third. And his .225/.302/.464 batting line represented his worst offensive output since a down 2013 season. But Frazier is young enough (31 in February) to think that he can regain his lost step at third, and perhaps its unwise to put too much stock in one year’s worth of defensive ratings given his strong track record. Also, he still swatted forty home runs in 2016 — rather an impressive total from a player capable of playing the hot corner — and boosted his walk rate to a career-high 9.6% (though his K rate also crept up). Frazier still runs well, too, as he swiped 15 bags in 2016.

Really, if you’re looking for a solid everyday player who could bounce back to being an All-Star-level performer, there aren’t many better bets than Frazier. His .236 BABIP makes him an obvious candidate for some positive regression, though it’s fair to note that he earned that mark to some extent by putting the ball in the air more than ever before (48.7%) and posting-career worst line-drive (15.7%) and soft contact (20.7%) rates. With Frazier showing greater selectivity than ever and maintaining his career swinging-strike rates, there’s hope that he can boost his OBP while retaining much of the power he has achieved by gunning for the long ball.

Even if he remains much the same hitter he was in 2016, Frazier would look to be a more defensively useful version of Mark Trumbo. Frazier will only require a single-season commitment, which is appealing. And he could also allow a new acquiring team to recoup a draft pick after the season, if he proves himself worthy of a qualifying offer.

Still, there’s probably a reason that it has mostly been crickets on the demand side for Frazier. In particular, there just isn’t that much demand for third basemen around the game. The Dodgers were rumored to have interest, but ended up bringing back top-available free agent Justin Turner. And the open market still includes at least two useful options at the hot corner in Luis Valbuena and Trevor Plouffe. Then, there’s the fact that MLBTR projects him to earn a hefty $13.5MM, which would make a dent on any team’s balance sheet.

Under the circumstances, the Sox could take Frazier into the year and hope he becomes a summer trade chip (or, perhaps, a QO candidate after the season). Holding onto him is hardly an unfathomable outcome if there’s truly no serious interest, particularly since there doesn’t appear to be a major salary-trimming imperative behind the team’s sell-off. Indeed, many of the teams discussed below seem rather unlikely to offer enough of a return to force the White Sox’ hand. But several organizations that might not give prospects and take on $13.5MM or so in salary right now may well end up having a need in the middle of the season.

It still makes eminent sense for the South Siders to explore all avenues for a trade this winter, but a deal probably isn’t as likely as it might seem at first glance. Let’s take a look at some hypothetical suitors (listed in alphabetical order):

[Team links to MLB Depth Charts]

Athletics — Sure, Oakland has Ryon Healy at third, and he’s more than entitled to a full-season run after his impressive debut. But he has never been viewed as much of a defensive player, and could simply be shifted over to first to make way for Frazier. The A’s have already shown a somewhat surprising amount of payroll availability in pursuing Edwin Encarnacion; adding Frazier could have nearly the same overall impact at a lesser cost (at least, in dollars) because of the defensive upgrade he’d bring.

Braves — While Atlanta seems amenable to going with Adonis Garcia at third, there’s little reason to expect much out of him. The organization can also plan to bump Sean Rodriguez to the hot corner if and when Ozzie Albies rises to the majors. And it’s fair to wonder at what point the Braves will stop taking on 2017 salary. Still, after expending some resources for near-term improvements, perhaps pursuing Frazier would be a finishing touch that could make Atlanta a plausible contender (with a few good breaks).

Cardinals — St. Louis was reportedly lingering around on both Turner and Encarnacion, suggesting that the club is intrigued at the prospect of boosting its infield productivity. Like those possibilities, adding Frazier would likely mean trading another player (Jhonny Peralta, Kolten Wong, or Jedd Gyorko) to create space. And it’s not clear whether the Cards would see enough upside in Frazier to go through with all that. Still, it’s a reasonably plausible landing spot.

Dodgers — Any continued interest depends upon whether the Dodgers would consider playing Turner at second base. He has seen less and less time there over the years, and didn’t make a single appearance at second in 2016, so there’s no particular reason to think that Los Angeles would move him to make way for Frazier. Adding a true second baseman still seems much more likely.

Giants — Eduardo Nunez remains the odds-on favorite to man third, in concert with Connor Gillaspie. But if San Francisco feels it’s better able to improve its offensive production with Frazier than by adding a corner outfielder, with Nunez turning back into a quality utilityman, then perhaps the Giants could make for an interesting fit.

Orioles — The O’s are said to be looking at sluggers, and may prefer one that plays the outfield, but there still could be a fit here. Frazier could spell Manny Machado at third and Chris Davis at first while lining up as the DH. If shortstop J.J. Hardy needs a rest, is hurt, or isn’t effective, then Machado could slide in for him and Frazier could return to full-time duty at the hot corner. It’s not a perfect fit, but Frazier could be a more appealing target for Baltimore than the remaining open-market options.

Rangers — Texas is in the market for a first baseman and/or DH, and might not hate the idea of adding someone who could fill in for Adrian Beltre at the hot corner at times. But there are plenty of hitters in free agency, and the Rangers have other infielders who could man third, so this doesn’t feel terribly likely as things stand.

Red Sox — Boston has given signals that its offseason is largely in the books, but a pivot can’t be ruled out. As things stand, the organization appears to be putting an awful lot of trust in Pablo Sandoval. There’s room for Frazier’s salary, perhaps, after dealing Clay Buchholz. He could split time between first and third (with Mitch Moreland), allowing Hanley Ramirez to be a full-time DH while increasing the Sox’ platoon opportunities.

Rockies — Somewhat like the Orioles, the Rockies could potentially have interest in Frazier to fill a different need. If Colorado trades an outfielder and moves Ian Desmond to the outfield, it would need a regular first baseman. While Frazier’s true utility is somewhat wasted there, that’s perhaps less true than it is in Desmond’s case.

Yankees — Chase Headley has underwhelmed with the bat, so perhaps Frazier could mix in with him and first baseman Greg Bird to inject some pop and increase the Yanks’ overall versatility. But New York still has other needs, and Frazier would represent a pretty significant cost to function in that kind of capacity. Unless Headley were to be dealt, the fit is something of a stretch.

Others — You could argue for the Pirates, especially if Jung Ho Kang is lost, though perhaps corresponding moves would be needed to make it even plausible that the Bucs would take on that much salary (particularly with David Freese and Josh Bell already on hand). The Indians might have made sense were it not for the acquisition of Edwin Encarnacion, but Frazier seems too costly and uncertain to justify relegating Jose Ramirez to corner outfield/utility duties. It’s hard to see the Rays coughing up the cash (and talent) needed to land Frazier, though he’d be a possible first base/DH candidate in Tampa Bay. The Marlins need a righty bat, but re-upped Martin Prado to play third and seem to like Justin Bour as at least a semi-regular at first; without a DH slot, there likely isn’t any kind of match there. Likewise, you could argue for the Mets to add Frazier (at least assuming they deal one or more outfielders); he could share time with Lucas Duda at first and otherwise play third, in theory, but this seems rather implausible unless/until New York trades one or more outfielders and the team has reason to believe that David Wright won’t be able to play in 2017. It’s at least somewhat more possible to imagine the Mariners or Blue Jays taking a look, but those also feel like iffy fits. Neither needs a third baseman or DH, and while they could stand to add Frazier’s pop at first, the presences of Dan Vogelbach and Justin Smoak reduce the utility of adding a fairly expensive piece like Frazier.

Cafardo’s Latest: Alvarez, Royals, Frazier, Bautista

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Some rumblings from around baseball in the latest column from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe…

  • The Royals could have interest in Pedro Alvarez.  The free agent would essentially replace Kendrys Morales in Kansas City’s lineup, providing the Royals with some left-handed hitting thump from the DH spot.  The Rays and Red Sox have both shown interest in Alvarez this offseason, though he has been most heavily linked to a return to Baltimore, perhaps as a possible fallback option for the Orioles if they can’t re-sign Mark Trumbo.
  • A utilityman, a reliever and a low-cost starting pitcher are the remaining items on the Royals’ shopping list.  Cafardo suggests that Jason Hammel is a potential candidate for that rotation need, as the Royals “could wait out” a market that has seen around 10 teams (including the Marlins and Yankees) express some interest in the veteran hurler.  Cafardo feels K.C. is probably done trading impending free agents after the Wade Davis deal, so Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas will all play one more season and then test the market next winter.
  • The White Sox have received some “due diligence” calls about Todd Frazier, though Jose Abreu is receiving more attention.  Abreu is controllable for three seasons while Frazier can be a free agent after 2017, so the differing levels of interest aren’t a surprise.  Frazier hit a career-best 40 homers in his first season in Chicago, though his overall hitting numbers (.225/.302/.464, 102 wRC+) rated him as providing just slightly above-average offensive production.  A .236 BABIP could’ve contributed to that downturn, not to mention the fact that it was Frazier’s first year in a new league, though it’s worth noting that Frazier has delivered just a .306 OBP over his last two seasons.  Frazier turns 31 in February and MLBTR projects him to earn $13.5MM in 2017, his last season of arbitration eligibility.  The Dodgers reportedly had interest in Frazier earlier this winter, though that was before L.A. re-signed Justin Turner as its regular third baseman.
  • Cafardo doesn’t get why the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Orioles all seem to have reservations against signing Jose Bautista, arguing that Bautista can be a huge lineup upgrade for all three teams.  In regards to Bautista’s injury-plagued 2016 season, Cafardo notes that the slugger still posted good numbers amidst his injuries “and has a chip on his shoulder” to re-establish himself after that down year.

Post-Winter Meetings Notes: Sale, Sox, Blackmon, Rays, Mets, Phils, Giants, Ross

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Baseball’s Winter Meetings always provides fascinating theater, and this year was no different. There’s quite a lot of information to digest with the meetings wrapped up — and also some interesting reading for those who are curious about how it all goes down. Writing for ESPN.com, Eno Sarris provides a fascinating look at some underappreciated elements of baseball decisionmaking, ranging from the mandates of owners to the frequent lack of understanding that the general public has as to what alternatives organizations realistically have when they decide upon their moves. The increasing complexities of baseball dealing are also covered by ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield, who discusses the impact of the largely ubiquitous utilization of advanced analysis in the game. With virtually all of the thirty MLB organizations employing fleets of sophisticated staffers, he argues, it’s harder to extract value from trades — which may help to explain the risks taken in some of the Winter Meetings’ biggest deals.

With the Winter Meetings in the books, here are some notes on the work that was completed and that remains to be done:

  • On Wednesday, the White Sox shipped ace lefty Chris Sale to the Red Sox in exchange for a heralded foursome of prospects. That swap, and its build-up, dominated the headlines at the Winter Meetings. Boston president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski discussed the process that led to the move in an excellent interview with Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. He not only provided an interesting account of the information gathering and processing that goes on at the Winter Meetings, as teams jockey for position and look to arrange fits on trades and signings, but went into the details on the pursuit of Sale. The sides built off of their prior “preliminary conversations,” and honed in on an agreement late Tuesday night as the sides began to line up on the complementary pieces that would go to Chicago along with the two headlining prospects (Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech). Momentum seemingly began to build as early as Friday, before the meetings kicked off, as Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com explains. It was at that point that White Sox GM Rick Hahn notified Dombrowski that he’d be willing to consider a different sort of return — presumably, top minor leaguers rather than young MLB assets — than had been discussed over the summer. The Nationals and Astros also dangled significant pieces; Hahn notes that “there were similar-type players being offered from other clubs,” leading to “a level of excitement in that room as we debated which was the best path for us.”
  • In the aftermath of the Sale trade, as well as the ensuing swap that sent Adam Eaton to D.C., the White Sox are prepared to part with other notable veterans if they can generate sufficient interest, as Hayes further reports. That could potentially include first baseman Jose Abreu — a former teammate of Moncada’s in Cuba — though it’s fair to wonder whether his market will develop with so much power still available in free agency. It’s also reasonable to expect that the South Siders are willing to listen on Jose Quintana, though there’s no real pressure to move his lengthy and affordable contract. It does stand to reason, though, that shorter-term assets (including Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera, and David Robertson) will be shopped more heavily.
  • Before pulling the trigger on Eaton, the Nationals at least checked in with the Rockies on center fielder Charlie Blackmon, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). While that obviously won’t be a match at this point, and the Cardinals no longer appear to be a possible suitor after signing Dexter Fowler, it remains to be seen whether Colorado will look hard at a deal involving one of its best players. The team made a notable free-agent splash by adding Ian Desmond, with reports suggesting that he’ll spend time at first base, but it still seems to make sense for the organization to consider addressing other needs — most notably, in the pitching staff — by exploring deals for Blackmon or one of its other left-handed-hitting outfielders. (Last we heard, a trade remains a real possibility; while the team is said to be holding some extension talks with Carlos Gonzalez, those reportedly haven’t progressed, so he too remains a plausible candidate.)
  • For the Rays, there are still a lot of interesting opportunities remaining even after the team took an interesting gamble on injured catcher Wilson Ramos, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. The team’s still-loaded rotation remains an area to watch.  “It’s hard to anticipate timing, it’s hard to really know where all this is going to end up,” said senior VP Chaim Bloom, “but we obviously have a number of talented pitchers in our rotation, and I think we had a lot of conversation on pretty much all of them.” Whatever a trade of a starter might yield remains unknown, but Topkin says that Tampa Bay is looking to add some pop at some point. That could involve waiting to see what “leftovers” remain with plenty of sluggers still available; Topkin even mentions, at least hypothetically, the possibility of a move on a player such as Jose Bautista. Ultimately, said Bloom, there’s a better sense internally as to where things could be headed. “There’s still a lot of dominoes to fall, potentially, with us and certainly around the industry, but the conversation this week was really helpful,” he said. “We got, I think, a much better idea of what may be available to us.”
  • The Mets are still working to tweak their roster after Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker decided to return, as Marc Carig of Newsday reports. It seems that the focus remains on finding a taker for outfielder Jay Bruce to clean up the team’s rotation and shed some salary, but Carig suggests that progress has been slower than hoped on that front and GM Sandy Alderson notes that many free-agent outfielders remain unaccounted for. The Mets “laid some groundwork” at the meetings, says Alderson, though it seems that the organization will take its time in making further moves. Carig further reports on possible trade assets that could conceivably be used to find relief pitching. That includes outfielder Brandon Nimmo as well as catchers Kevin Plawecki and Tomas Nido, all of whom were discussed to some extent in recent days.
  • The Winter Meetings weren’t quite as busy for the Phillies, but as Ryan Lawrence of the Philly Voice notes, there’s still plenty time for some moves. GM Matt Klentak noted both that the flurry of moves creates “a ripple effect” and also that there’s plenty of information gathering which can “help you make decisions down the road.” In Philadelphia’s case, there’s “not a lot cooking” at the moment, per Klentak, but with “a lot of dialogue on a lot of different fronts” there’s always the potential for something to come together. Klentak notes that he expects at least one or two of the team’s 40-man spots to turn over between now and the start of Spring Training.
  • Meanwhile, the Giants may largely be done with their winter work, Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area tweets. That being said, San Francisco is interested in adding some pop to its bench mix. The club has inquired on free-agent slugger Mark Reynolds and other “similar players,” per the report.
  • The Cubs took care of their bullpen during the Winter Meetings, but are still eyeing free-agent starter Tyson Ross, according to Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com. At this point, it’s not even clear precisely when Ross will sign, but it’s interesting to note that the defending World Series champs seem to have more than a passing interest in the veteran righty, who is working back from thoracic outlet surgery. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein spoke generally of the idea of signing injured starters, noting that there’s demand for “really talented pitchers” even if they have recently been hurt. “We’ll stay engaged on some of those guys,” he said, “but they’ll have to be just the right talent.”

Dodgers Have “Expressed Interest” In Todd Frazier

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The Dodgers have “expressed interest” in White Sox third baseman Todd Frazier, according to a tweet from ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick. It isn’t clear whether talks have advanced.

Los Angeles has long been said to be eyeing a reunion with free agent Justin Turner, but presumably Frazier would represent an alternative. With Chicago selling off top hurler Chris Sale for prospects, it makes more sense than ever for the organization to explore trades of other veteran assets.

That’s all the more true in the case of Frazier, who is under team control for just one more season. With a projected $13.5MM arbitration salary, he’s not cheap, but the 30-year-old continues to deliver strong overall value at the hot corner. Never great at reaching base, Frazier’s OBP has tanked since the start of 2015. But he has also driven 75 balls out of the yard over the last two campaigns. And though his metrics dipped at third last year, he typically rates well with the glove, too.

Quick Hits: White Sox, Dodgers, Twins, Yankees, Orioles

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The White Sox are willing to listen to offers for just about all of their players, and industry sources regard them and the Dodgers as perfect trading partners, according to Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan (Twitter links). Ace Chris Sale, third baseman Todd Frazier and closer David Robertson are among the players Chicago could move, and all of them fit the Dodgers’ needs, notes Passan. Meanwhile, the White Sox like several Dodgers – outfielder Yasiel Puig and prospects Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, Jose DeLeon and Willie Calhoun – so it seems the two sides could line up for some sort of deal this offseason.

Now for some American League notes:

  • Former Twins reliever LaTroy Hawkins has joined the team’s revamped front office as a special assistant, reports Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. And longtime outfielder Torii Hunter, one of the greatest Twins ever, could be next. Hunter told Berardino he has had “several conversations about” taking on a role with the Twins, adding that he and the club “will talk here in the near future.” Hawkins and Hunter, both of whom retired after the 2015 campaign, spent a combined 21 major league seasons with the Twins. Minnesota chose Hawkins in Round 7 of the 1991 draft and Hunter in the first round in 1993.
  • Although the Yankees are on the hunt for starting pitching, they could take advantage of a weak market and shop contract-year right-hander Michael Pineda, Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggests. Even if New York opts against that and only adds to its rotation, Sherman doesn’t see the team going to three years for free agency’s best option, onetime Yankee Rich Hill. New York has shown interest in Hill, Jason Hammel and Derek Holland this week.
  • The Orioles did not add outfielder Mike Yastrzemski or catcher Audry Perez to their 40-man roster Friday, meaning both minor leaguers could end up leaving the organization in December’s Rule 5 draft. Baltimore is at least hoping to retain Yastrzemski, the grandson of Hall of Famer Carl Yastrzemski, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Mike Yastrzemski hit just .221/.312/.369 in 385 plate appearances at Triple-A Norfolk in 2016, though injuries negatively affected him. “He had a labrum problem and he also had a core injury that he had to have surgery on, so he’s got a little work to do to be ready for the spring,” said general manager Dan Duquette. Scouts regard Yastrzemski as a potential fourth outfielder in the majors and Garcia as a possible reserve backstop, and Kubatko expects someone to draft the latter.
  • Along with the previously reported Roger McDowell and Frank Viola, Orioles Double-A pitching coach Alan Mills, Cardinals minor league pitching coordinator Tim Leveque and Rangers minor league pitching coordinator Danny Clark are vying to replace the departed Dave Wallace as Baltimore’s pitching coach, per Kubatko. The club is looking to make a hire soon, perhaps as early as this weekend.

Trade Chatter: Miggy, McCann, Greinke, Third Basemen, M’s, D-Rob

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With some buzz arising yesterday about the Astros possibly pursuing Tigers superstar Miguel Cabrera, Houston GM Jeff Luhnow suggested that it was more smoke than fire, as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle reports. While he wouldn’t comment specifically, and acknowledged that the team discusses “lots of different scenarios” with its rivals, Luhnow largely doused the rumor. “I was asked, ’Would we consider a trade for a Hall of Fame-caliber first baseman,’ and we’re considering everything,” said Luhnow. “I think the media kind of ran with that.”

  • We’ve also heard plenty of discussion of the Yankees possibly dealing catcher Brian McCann, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post has the latest. The Astros, Braves, and Nationals are “believed interested,” says Sherman, though we’ve yet to hear truly clear reporting connecting any single team to the backstop this winter. That’s due in part to the fact that McCann enjoys full no-trade protection. McCann’s agent, B.B. Abbott, did acknowledge that his client might be amenable to a return to Atlanta, where he makes his home, and will otherwise consider opportunities — with factors including location, competitiveness, and playing time — on a case-by-case basis. “He would look hypothetically at [the Braves] very seriously if [Yankees GM Brian Cashman] is able to do it,” said Abbott. “If it is a team a little closer to home that has a chance to contend that fits X, Y and Z, Mac will look at it and determine if it is a fit.” Abbott emphasized that McCann doesn’t have any kind of list of pre-approved teams, preferring instead to allow the organization to present any possible trade to him if it arises, and is hardly demanding that he be sent elsewhere.
  • Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen says that he “fully anticipates” that righty Zack Greinke will pitch in Arizona next year, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports on Twitter. That’s not terribly surprising, and is hardly a committing comment, but it certainly suggests that the new D-Backs front office won’t be seeking to shed as much of Greinke’s contract as it can this winter. While the organization would surely need to entertain any serious offers for the veteran, the smarter course at this point may be to allow him to rebuild some value before seeking to unload the huge future commitment.
  • The third base market could potentially see a bit of action via trade, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. He says that the Padres are getting bites on Yangervis Solarte and the White Sox are listening on Todd Frazier. Of course, there isn’t an enormous amount of demand around the game, and Justin Turner remains available as a high-quality free agent, though it’s certainly possible to imagine organizations like the Dodgers, Red Sox, Braves, and Brewers pursuing additions at the hot corner. The biggest conceivable trade piece, of course, would be Evan Longoria of the Rays, and Rosenthal says that Tampa Bay will indeed be open to considering offers. But it still remains quite difficult to see a deal coming together on him.
  • The Mariners aren’t ruling out pursuit of a shortstop, though they feel comfortable with what they have, GM Jerry Dipoto told reporters including MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. Ketel Marte remains the incumbent regular, and Dipoto also cited Shawn O’Malley and Mike Freeman as internal depth pieces. On the one hand, said the GM, any more would be “more significant than finding somebody who can augment our situation at Triple-A.” On the other, it wouldn’t necessarily be a blockbuster. “If we do something at shortstop, it’s going to be more of a veteran guidance type of player,” said Dipoto. “Maybe the shortstop version of a Carlos Ruiz, but the market is not brimming with that type of player.” Free agent possibilities could in theory include Erick Aybar and Alexei Ramirez, but it seems they don’t hold much appeal for Seattle. Alternatively, the M’s could certainly also re-join their summer efforts to acquire Zack Cozart, or pursue a somewhat lesser-regarded veteran such as Danny Espinosa, though we’ve heard no specific suggestions as yet.
  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn discussed the status of reliever David Robertson, who some view as a possible trade piece this winter, as Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago reports. He’s owed $25MM over the next two years and wasn’t quite himself in 2016, but robust demand for closers could make him a rather significant target. Offseason meniscus surgery isn’t expected to limit Robertson in camp, says Hahn. And the veteran reliever will also have a chance to fully recover from glut issues that Hahn says may have contributed to his struggles last year.

Heyman’s Latest: White Sox, Marlins, Brewers, Yankees, Gurriel, Saunders

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FanRag’s Jon Heyman kicks off his weekly notes column by ranking the 20 best trades in the past two years, with the Blue Jays’ Josh Donaldson acquisition topping the list. Certainly a good deal of hindsight is used when crafting any such list, and the development of certain prospects could change the way we perceive some of these still-fresh deals, but many of the swaps listed do indeed look lopsided one way or another at the moment.

Some highlights from the column…

  • The White Sox never even put Chris Sale or Jose Quintana on trade waivers last month, knowing that there wouldn’t be time to negotiate a sufficient return in the limited 47-hour window after the respective aces were claimed. They’ll instead explored trade scenarios for both pitchers once again this winter, though owner Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t keen on rebuilding. Todd Frazier was claimed on trade waivers but pulled back, according to Heyman, whereas outfielder Melky Cabrera made it through waivers but remained in Chicago despite his above-average offensive production dating back to last June.
  • The Marlins will try to find a No. 2 type starter this winter to slot between Jose Fernandez and Wei-Yin Chen, but the usual caveats apply: this offseason bears a historically poor crop of free-agent starting pitching, and the Marlins’ paper-thin farm system makes it difficult to land a high-quality pitcher via trade. Per Heyman, the Marlins are frequently asked about Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto but are loath to part with either rising star. He also adds that manager Don Mattingly is strongly in favor of the team re-signing Martin Prado.
  • Jonathan Villar’s strong play for the Brewers this season has apparently created some wishful thinking among other clubs, as there’s been increased interest in top prospect Orlando Arcia, but the Brewers are “not entertaining offers” for the highly touted 22-year-old.
  • Aaron Judge’s struggles notwithstanding, the Yankees won’t seek outfield help this offseason, GM Brian Cashman told Heyman. In addition to Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Judge and Aaron Hicks, Cashman pointed out that the Yankees also have Clint Frazier and Mason Williams, commenting that players with Frazier’s level of talent can force their way onto the big league roster quickly. The GM also expressed confidence that Luis Severino can stick as a starting pitcher and talked about the rapid development of Gary Sanchez on the heels of the young catcher’s stunning late-season breakout.
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr., the younger brother of Astros infielder/DH Yulieski Gurriel, will host a showcase for interested teams on Sep. 14 in Panama City, according to Heyman. The Cardinals are one of about 20 teams planning to go watch the young shortstop, he notes. While the showcase will allow teams to get a look at the younger Gurriel, I can’t envision him actually signing until his 23rd birthday passes on Oct. 19. At that point, Gurriel will no longer be considered an amateur, and thus will no longer be subject to international signing bonuses.
  • The Blue Jays will make the obvious decisions to extend qualifying offers to Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista, and they’re also considering a QO for Michael Saunders. While that might’ve seemed like a highly implausible scenario a few months back, Saunders has been quite good in a full, healthy season. In 500 plate appearances, the 29-year-old is slashing .266/.348/.505 with 23 homers — though he hasn’t been as good in the season’s second half. Saunders’ injury history could at least create some pause, but given his quality offensive output and lack of a platoon split in 2016, I think he’d be able to secure a nice multi-year pact even if he turned down the sizable one-year offer.

AL Central Notes: Tigers, A-Rod, Twins, Frazier

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Here’s the latest from around the AL Central…

  • The Tigers aren’t likely to pursue outfield help unless Cameron Maybin has a setback, manager Brad Ausmus told reporters, including MLB.com’s Jason Beck.  Maybin is on the 15-day DL with a sprained left thumb and hasn’t begun swinging a bat yet, so while a return by the end of the 15-day period (on Friday) doesn’t appear to be in the cards, Ausmus is optimistic that Maybin will be back sooner rather than later.  Tyler Collins has been filling while Maybin is out, though as Beck notes, there was speculation that Carlos Gomez could be a fit for Detroit.
  • The Twins don’t look like a match for Alex Rodriguez, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press writes.  Minnesota probably isn’t in any position to give at-bats to a veteran when the team has so many young players, and A-Rod’s inability to play the field is also a factor.  “We’ve got a lot of DHs.  If you’d ask me if he’d be a fit here, I don’t see how we could find any place to get him much of an opportunity,” manager Paul Molitor said.
  • Todd Frazier hopes to stay with the White Sox even if the team undergoes a rebuild, as Frazier tells MLB.com’s Scott Merkin that he would embrace the role as veteran leader of a younger clubhouse.  “If I was here, shoot man, it would be great.  I know what it takes to lead a team….These guys understand that I care for all of them.  If that’s the way [GM Rick Hahn’s] going, and I’m still here, I’ll take that with open arms,” Frazier said.

Cafardo’s Latest: Sox, D-backs, Royals, Marlins, Twins, Phillies

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With the free-falling White Sox open to selling off veterans, power-hitting third baseman Todd Frazier could end up switching uniforms by the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Frazier is on a reasonable $7.5MM salary this year and will make one more trip through arbitration in the offseason. His .212/.300/.476 batting line is far from great, but the right-handed Frazier is second in the majors in home runs (28). Meanwhile, the team’s second-best starting pitcher, lefty Jose Quintana, is available for an “overwhelming” package, a major league source told Cafardo. The highly effective Quintana, 27, is controllable and affordable through 2020, and has logged a 3.13 ERA, 8.15 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9 in 123 2/3 innings this season.

More from Cafardo as the deadline draws closer:

  • Regarding the possibility of the Diamondbacks trading star right-hander Zack Greinke in the first season of a six-year, $206.5MM contract, a source told Cafardo, “It would take a great return of players and the team would have to assume the entire contract. The Diamondbacks wouldn’t pay a dime.” It seems as if Greinke will stay put, then. Before landing on the disabled list with an oblique injury earlier this month, the soon-to-be 33-year-old recorded a 3.62 ERA, 7.49 K/9, 1.73 BB/9 and 47.6 percent ground-ball rate across his first 109 1/3 innings as a Diamondback.
  • The Royals have interest in Red Sox righty Clay Buchholz, who’s currently in their bullpen, but Boston would have to pick up large portion of his remaining $13MM salary for 2016 in a trade. Buchholz’s contract also includes a $13.5MM club option for next season. In 20 appearances (13 starts) and 82 2/3 innings this season, the 31-year-old has compiled a sky-high 6.10 ERA to pair with ugly strikeout and walk rates (5.99 and 4.03, respectively, per nine).
  • The Marlins scouted Red Sox southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez and a couple of Twins – right-hander Ricky Nolasco and left-hander Tommy Milone  – in Boston earlier this week. It looks as though the 23-year-old Rodriguez is unavailable, per Cafardo. Nolasco, a former Marlin, is on a $12MM salary through next season and has continued a trend of having difficulty preventing runs this year (5.40 ERA) through 116 2/3 innings. Milone has also posted a lofty ERA (4.71 in 49 2/3 frames), though he carries a more modest salary of $4.5MM.
  • Phillies righty Jeremy Hellickson is another candidate to join the Marlins, and southpaw reliever Mike Dunn could be part of a deal. As a 31-year-old pending free agent, Dunn would seemingly be an odd pickup for the rebuilding Phillies, however.
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