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Tyler Mahle

Twins Place Tyler Mahle On 15-Day Injured List

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The Twins have placed right-hander Tyler Mahle on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to August 18) due to right shoulder inflammation.  Southpaw Devin Smeltzer has been called up to take Mahle’s spot on the active roster.

The IL placement isn’t a big surprise, after Mahle left Wednesday’s game after only 2 1/3 innings, and the Twins already announced that Mahle’s next turn in the rotation would be skipped.  On the brighter side, an MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage, and Mahle also told reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) yesterday that he was feeling better and was able to left weights two days removed from his early exit.

Ideally, Mahle will be able to return when first eligible to be activated off the 15-day IL.  Of course, losing the righty for any amount of time is a tough beat for a Minnesota club that is battling for both the AL Central lead or at least a wild card berth.  Mahle was supposed to be a big part of this postseason push, acquired from the Reds in a major deal at the trade deadline — thus far, Mahle has a strong 2.51 ERA over his first 14 1/3 innings in a Twins uniform.

Smeltzer could be the likeliest candidate to fill Mahle’s rotation spot, assuming that the Twins pick one single pitcher to cover those starts.  The advanced metrics aren’t fans of Smeltzer’s work this season, but the left-hander has managed to outperform those peripherals and post a 4.02 ERA over 12 starts and 62 2/3 frames.  If not Smeltzer, the Twins could also turn to Aaron Sanchez or Cole Sands, or possibly a combination of these pitchers in a piggyback situation.

Injury Notes: Mahle, Meadows, Walker, Johnson

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The Twins are surely breathing a sigh of relief, announcing to reporters Thursday that an MRI revealed right-hander Tyler Mahle’s shoulder to be structurally sound. Mahle, acquired from the Reds in exchange for three prospects earlier this month, exited yesterday’s start after just 2 1/3 innings due to shoulder fatigue. That was of particular concern, given that he also missed time in July with what was termed by the Reds as a “minor'” shoulder strain. For the time being, there are no plans to place Mahle on the 15-day injured list, though it’s not yet clear whether his next start will be pushed back at all.

Mahle’s Wednesday start saw his fastball clocking in around four miles per hour shy of his typical 93.4 mph average, so there’s still some obvious concern, but the absence of a tear or any structural issues is about the best news for which the Twins could have hoped. In 14 1/3 innings as a Twin, Mahle has pitched to a 2.51 ERA with a 23.1% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk rate. Mahle, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy are in line to make the majority of the Twins’ starts down the stretch, though they’re expecting right-hander Bailey Ober back in September and just this week promoted prospect Simeon Woods Richardson from Double-A to Triple-A.

Some more injury scenarios of note from around the league…

  • As if things couldn’t get any worse for the Tigers, manager A.J. Hinch announced this week that outfielder Austin Meadows has once again been pulled from a rehab assignment (link via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News). Meadows first hit the injured list back in mid-May due to vertigo-like symptoms and returned a bit less than a month later. That return lasted only eight games, however, before he was placed on the Covid-related injured list. Just as Meadows was getting ready to head out on a rehab assignment, he was transferred to the 10-day injured list owing to the bizarre diagnosis of an Achilles strain in both legs. This now marks the second time that Meadows has had a rehab assignment for this injury halted. Hinch’s only update was that Meadows was headed to Detroit for reevaluation and that the Tigers still have hope he can return in 2022. It’s been a nightmare of a season for Meadows, who has been limited to just 147 plate appearances and seen his power disappear: .250/.347/.328.
  • Mets righty Taijuan Walker left his most recent start due to back spasms, with an MRI revealing a slight disc bulge in his lower back, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. However, it’s possible he could make his next scheduled start on Sunday. Walker tells DiComo that he is “shocked” to be feeling so good so soon after experiencing “the worst pain I ever felt.” Although he’s feeling better, he still won’t take the mound on Sunday unless he’s feeling 100 percent, per DiComo. If he is indeed recovered, it would be a tremendous gift for the Mets, given the current pressures on their rotation. With Carlos Carrasco recently landing on the IL and the Mets having a doubleheader on Saturday, having to make it through Sunday without Walker would certainly be a challenge. How his back responds over the next few days will determine if the club can avoid that tricky scenario.
  • Padres reliever Pierce Johnson is heading out on a rehab assignment, tweets Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Johnson had an excellent season for San Diego a year ago, throwing 58 2/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA and 31.6% strikeout rate. The Friars held a $3MM club option over Johnson’s services for this year, which they exercised based on that strong showing last season. Unfortunately, Johnson landed on the IL in April due to elbow tendinitis. He’s yet to return, meaning he’s only been able to get into six games this year. After a layoff of about four months, it seems he’s healthy enough to get back into game shape. Once he’s ready to return to the big league club, he should give the bullpen a boost for the final few weeks of the season.

Reds Trade Tyler Mahle To Twins

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The Twins have nabbed their second notable arm of the day, acquiring right-hander Tyler Mahle in a trade with the Reds, the teams announced. Cincinnati is receiving infield prospects Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand as well as left-handed pitching prospect Steven Hajjar in the deal. Minnesota has had interest in Mahle dating back to the offseason, when they also picked up another Reds starter, Sonny Gray, in a swap that sent 2021 first-rounder Chase Petty to the Reds.

Tyler Mahle

Minnesota has been focused on upgrading its pitching staff, both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Having already landed Orioles closer Jorge Lopez in a trade with Baltimore earlier this morning, it seems their focus has shifted to Mahle, who’d reunite with Gray and give the Twins a starter they can control for the remainder of the current season and for the 2023 campaign.

Mahle, 28 next month, has shaken off a terrible start to the 2022 season and pitched quite well over the past two months. He had a brief stint on the injured list due to a shoulder strain in mid-July, but Mahle only missed minimal time and has made a pair of effective starts since returning. Dating back to May 29, he’s pitched to a 2.83 ERA with a 27.9% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate in 57 1/3 innings.

Since a breakout during the 2020 season, Mahle has pitched to a 3.93 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 332 big league innings. He’s averaged 94 mph with his heater along the way and leaned heavily on a splitter and slider that have both graded out as above-average pitches at times — more recently favoring the splitter (particularly as a means of neutralizing lefties).

Beyond Mahle’s solid ERA, it’s easy to be intrigued by how he might fare when finally escaping the homer-happy confines of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. He’s worked to an ugly 4.83 ERA and yielded an average of 1.69 home runs per nine innings over the past three seasons while pitching at home but boasts an outstanding 2.93 ERA and just a 0.52 HR/9 mark on the road. He also has above-average spin on his heater and rates in the 76th percentile or better, per Statcast, in each of the following metrics: expected ERA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA.

Mahle will give the Twins some desperately needed help in the rotation, which started the season on a surprisingly strong note but has floundered of late. Opening Day rotation members Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack are both on the injured list — Paddack lost for the season due to Tommy John surgery — and 2020 Cy Young runner-up Kenta Maeda is recovering from his own TJ procedure, performed late last season.

The Twins have leaned heavily on Mahle’s former Reds rotationmate Gray, rookie Joe Ryan and veterans Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy so far in 2022. Gray and Ryan have both been strong — a disastrous five-homer start for Ryan in his last appearance notwithstanding — and Bundy has been serviceable, if unspectacular, outside a pair of catastrophic starts of his own at the end of April and in early May. Archer has been limited to four or five outings per start throughout the season and begun to wilt in recent weeks, however, and the Twins’ overall rotation mix simply underwhelmed in July. Twins starters yielded an awful 6.49 ERA in July — third-worst among all big league teams.

Mahle is earning $5.2MM this season, making him plenty affordable even when factoring in his final arbitration raise for next season (or, as Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggests, in a potential long-term extension). Even absent an extension, he can be penciled into the 2023 staff alongside Gray, Ryan and (health-permitting) Maeda. That’s a much more solid foundation than the team carried into the current season.

Unlike this morning’s acquisition of Lopez, the Twins paid fairly extensively from the top end of their system to get this deal done. Steer, the Twins’ third-round pick in 2019, recently moved into the back end of Baseball America’s midseason top-100 rankings on the heels of a big first half.

Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A, Steer has turned in a combined .269/.361/.528 batting line with 20 home runs, 23 doubles, three triples, a 17% strikeout rate and a strong 10.8% walk rate. He’s split his time between second base, third base and shortstop this season, spending the bulk of his time at the hot corner (although Baseball America cites second as his best position). Given his breakout showing this year, it’s not unreasonable to think Steer could be an option for the Reds within the next year.

The 22-year-old Encarnacion-Strand, meanwhile was Minnesota’s fourth-round selection just last year. As with Steer, he’d having a huge season in the minors, logging a combined .302/.374/.612 batting line with 25 home runs, 25 doubles and four triples between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. Strikeouts have been more of an issue for Encarnacion-Strand than for Steer, as he’s fanned in about a quarter of his place appearances this season against a solid 8.7% walk rate. BA ranked him 14th in the Twins’ system, touting his plus-plus raw power but noting that he’s at best a fringey defender at third base and may need to move across the diamond.

Hajjar, 21, was the Twins’ second-round pick in last year’s draft and has had an impressive first full pro season this year. Minnesota has been limiting his workload, evidenced by 45 1/3 innings across a combined 13 starts, but the results have been strong. The former Michigan standout has logged a 3.18 ERA with a gaudy 39.2% strikeout rate so far, although his 14% walk rate is something he’ll obviously need to hone is he’s to ever realize his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter.

Hajjar can reach the mid-to-upper 90s with his heater, which he complements with a slider and changeup. Notably, Hajjar did spend more than a month on the shelf due to a shoulder strain, and his results since returning have been diminished. Still, he’s a clearly talented arm whom the Reds can add to the middle tier of a farm system they’re rapidly restocking.

With this trade, the Twins have now moved on from four of their top five picks in the 2021 draft since trading for Gray just prior to the season. That’ll take a toll on the system, which has also been harmed by a series of injuries to last year’s wave of top prospects (e.g. Josh Winder, Jordan Balazovic). That said, it’s also a testament to the strength of last year’s class. And, with the Twins receiving strong production from some recent graduates of the farm — including the aforementioned Ryan leverage reliever Jhoan Duran and slugging corner infielder Jose Miranda, among others — there’ll be a bit less pressure to tap into the upper levels of their system in the immediate future.

Time will tell whether the Twins have another move up their sleeve. They could certainly use another reliever and/or another starter, to say nothing of a backup catcher or an outfielder — all rumored to be on Minnesota’s wishlist. There’s about two hours left for them to find a way to pull together another deal (or deals). The Reds, meanwhile, will surely have other players on the move as general manager Nick Krall and his staff continue to restock the farm and simultaneously slash payroll.

C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic first reported (via Twitter) that the Twins and Reds were in “serious” talks regarding Mahle. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman tweeted that a deal was in place. Ted Schwerzler of TwinsDaily was first with the return (Twitter link).

NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Mahle, Drury, Quintana, Blue Jays, Sosa

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The Cardinals’ search for starting pitching has taken them inside their division, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) reports that St. Louis is one of the many clubs interested in Reds righty Tyler Mahle.  With the Cards looking at all options for rotation help, it only makes sense that they’d be at least checking in on Mahle’s services.

The Phillies, Twins, and Mets are among the clubs linked to Mahle since the start of the season, while the Rangers also reportedly had interest during the offseason.  With Luis Castillo already off the board, it’s fair to guess that most pitching-needy teams have spoken to the Reds about Mahle, and on paper the Cardinals have the kind of young talent that the Reds would surely demand.  However, it is possible Cincinnati might want a higher price for moving Mahle to a division rival — as Morosi notes, the Reds and Cardinals haven’t completed a player-for-player trade since 1997, so it would count as a surprise on some level if Mahle ended up in St. Louis.

More notes from around the NL Central…

  • Just because Castillo has been traded doesn’t mean the Reds are necessarily likelier to hang onto Mahle, since CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson hears that Mahle and Brandon Drury are expected to both be on new teams after the deadline.  Drury is a free agent after the season and thus an obvious trade chip, though Mahle is still under team control through 2023.  But, it now seems like Cincinnati is going to dive into something close to a full rebuild, a process that really started over the winter when they moved several other veteran talents.
  • The Blue Jays are in the mix for Pirates starter Jose Quintana, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, along with such previously-reported suitors as the Yankees and White Sox.  The veteran left-hander is having a bounce-back season after struggling in 2019-21, and Quintana could help bolster an inconsistent Toronto rotation.  Pirates GM Ben Cherington previously worked in the Jays’ front office, so this familiarity with the AL East side’s prospects could help the Blue Jays in the bidding, though the two sides haven’t completed a player-for-player trade in the two-plus years since Cherington went to Pittsburgh.
  • The Yankees were one of the other teams interested in Edmundo Sosa before the Cardinals dealt Sosa to the Phillies, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  Sosa would’ve been an interesting depth add to the Yankees’ infield, and it is even possible that Sosa could have worked his way into a timeshare with Isiah Kiner-Falefa at shortstop.

Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Search

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The Phillies are looking to add a front-of-the-rotation type of arm, with The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (Twitter links) writing that the Phils want “a starter who can start a playoff game.”  To this end, the club has been linked to such arms as the Reds’ Tyler Mahle, the Angels’ Noah Syndergaard, and the Pirates’ Jose Quintana — three of the most prominent starting pitchers remaining on the trade market.

Mahle is controlled through the 2023 season, while Syndergaard and Quintana would be pure rentals as players who are scheduled for free agency this winter.  As such, Mahle would surely cost the most in a trade, and Syndergaard carries a bit of a financial hit, with roughly $7.2MM still owed to him over the remainder of the season.  By contrast, Quintana is owed only around $675K for the rest of 2022, but Quintana also has a shaky track record over the last few seasons before righting himself this year in Pittsburgh.

Dave Dombrowski, Philadelphia’s president of baseball operations, suggested earlier this week that his team was hoping to bolster the rotation, but the Phils were also hesitant about dealing any of their top prospects.  Stark backs up that assertion, noting that the Phillies haven’t been willing to move any of Mick Abel, Andrew Painter or Logan O’Hoppe (the Phils’ consensus top-three prospects in the view of Baseball America and MLB Pipeline), or right-handed pitching propects Griff McGarry or Ben Brown.  BA ranks McGarry fourth and Brown seventh in their ranking of Phillies prospects, while Pipeline is a little less bullish, ranking McGarry eighth and Brown 26th.

Since the Phillies’ system isn’t considered to be too deep overall, it isn’t any surprise that the front office isn’t keen on parting ways with any of the relatively few premium names on hand in the minors.  However, as Stark observes, the Phils will find it difficult to obtain higher-tier pitching unless they’re open to trading prospects.  Given the amount of interest Mahle has received from around the league, and given what the Reds just obtained from the Mariners in the Luis Castillo deal, it would seem almost impossible for the Phillies to land Mahle without at least one of the blue-chip prospects.

Syndergaard and Quintana would come at a lower price tag as rental players, but Stark notes that Dombrowski also prefers controllable starters.  This was Philadelphia’s strategy in landing Kyle Gibson from the Rangers at last year’s deadline, and landing a starter who is controlled through at least 2023 would give the Phillies some cover since Gibson and Zach Eflin could both be free agents this winter.

The rotation seems to be Philadelphia’s top priority at this point, as Stark says that the Phillies aren’t focused on any bullpen moves for the moment.  This is a little surprising given the Phils’ longstanding needs in the relief corps, but it could be that Dombrowski is first exploring his options with the starter market before turning to the (relatively) easier route of adding relievers.  Also, virtually every contender in baseball is looking for relievers right now, so Dombrowski could be opting to make some late strikes after the first wave or two of bullpen trades have been made.

Twins Rumors: Mahle, Castillo, Marlins, Coulombe, Winder, Catcher

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The Twins currently hold a 2.5-game lead in the American League Central, but another poor performance from a pitching staff that has squandered far too many leads this season cost them a win over the Brewers last night. Upgrading the pitching staff will be a priority for the Twins before next Tuesday’s deadline, and to that end, they’ve been in the market on both Reds ace Luis Castillo and Athletics top starter Frankie Montas, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, however, writes that the Twins are more interested in Castillo’s teammate Tyler Mahle than in Castillo himself. Hayes adds that the Twins have been in talks with the Marlins about pitching help. Minnesota and Miami, it should be noted, have had talks regarding potential swaps sending pitching to Minnesota frequently in offseasons past. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, and reliever Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro and Steven Okert are a few speculative trade candidates in the Marlins’ bullpen. Generally speaking, the Marlins are deep in pitching options that’ll appeal not only to the Twins but other clubs seeking upgrades.

Whether the preference for Mahle over Castillo — which Hayes also indicated back in the offseason — is a reflection of asking price or of the Twins’ belief that he has the superior raw stuff isn’t clear. But Mahle has flown somewhat under the radar for the past few seasons despite being quite similar, statistically, to both Castillo and Montas since 2020.

It’s hard not to wonder just what Mahle’s performance might look like in another uniform, as his numbers away from the homer-happy Great American Ball Park are tantalizing. Few pitchers have such a dramatic home/road split as Mahle, who since 2020 has pitched to a 2.93 ERA on the road but an ugly 4.89 mark at home. Mahle has allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings pitched in Cincinnati, compared to just 0.52 long balls per nine on the road. He also has a better strikeout rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate than either Castillo or Montas, dating back to 2020 — albeit with the highest walk rate of the three.

Broadly speaking, Mahle is much closer to the Montas/Castillo tier of pitcher than most pundits credit him. And, with a $5.2MM salary compared to Castillo’s $7.35MM mark, he’s a bit more affordable than his teammate and right in line with Montas ($5MM). Like that duo, he’s controlled through the 2023 season.

Mahle got out to an awful start in 2022, pitching to a 6.32 ERA through his first ten appearances. However, most of the damage against him came in two brutal outings — eight runs versus the Cubs on May 24 and seven runs against the Dodgers on April 17 — and he’s been excellent over the past two months. Dating back to May 29, Mahle has a 2.81 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 51 1/3 innings. Overall, he’s sitting on a 4.48 ERA this season, but marks like xERA (3.30) and FIP (3.78) feel he’s been quite a bit better than that. A minor shoulder strain sent him to the IL earlier this month, but Mahle returned Sunday to fire six quality innings.

Regardless of the specific names they acquire, the Twins seem nearly certain to augment both their rotation and their bullpen in the next six days. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been their only two consistently reliable arms, and their ’pen depth took a further hit yesterday when left-hander Danny Coulombe was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Twins announced today that Coulombe required season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip, subtracting a quietly useful lefty from the mix.

The 32-year-old Coulombe is a journeyman southpaw who found a home in the Twins organization back in 2020. He only made two appearances with the Twins that season but returned on a minor league deal in 2021 and has been solid overall in the Twins’ relief corps. Dating back to 2020, Coulombe has pitched 49 1/3 innings with aa 2.92 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. He’ll get big league service time while finishing out the year on the 60-day IL, but he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following that surgery.

Meanwhile, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that promising young righty Josh Winder, one of the Twins’ brightest arms and currently the game’s No. 68 prospect at Baseball America, is being shut due to recurring shoulder discomfort. The Twins are still trying to determine the cause of the issue, but the loss of Winder, who’s already given them 45 1/3 Major League innings (3.77 ERA) is a huge hit to the Twins’ rotation and bullpen depth.

For all the focus on the Twins’ pitching staff, it’s not their only area of need. Catcher Ryan Jeffers’ fractured thumb will sideline him for up to eight weeks, which has pushed Gary Sanchez into a starting catcher role with Minnesota. He’d previously been used more evenly between designated hitter and catcher, but Sanchez will now get the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate now. Caleb Hamilton, a 2016 23-round pick who’d never hit much above A-ball prior to this season, is currently serving as his backup.

It’s not terribly surprising, then, that Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North mentions in his latest podcast that the Twins will explore the market for a more veteran backup to Sanchez. Twins fans probably shouldn’t expect to see Willson Contreras riding into town anytime soon, but players like Tucker Barnhart or Pedro Severino jump out as possibly available veteran backups.

Wolfson adds, via Twitter, that outfield prospect Matt Wallner and infield prospect Spencer Steer have been mentioned in trade scenarios the team has had recently —  and understandably so. Wallner, the No. 39 overall pick in 2019, recently jumped to Triple-A after posting a .299/.436/.597 batting line (157 wRC+) and 21 homers in 342 plate appearances with the Twins’ Double-A club. Steer, selected just 51 picks after Wallner, is hitting a combined .274/.359/.549 in 78 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He recently just landed in the No. 99 spot on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 prospect ranking. Certainly, neither Wallner nor Steer would be included in a small trade for a backup catcher, but it’s easy to see both being the type of players coveted by teams peddling controllable help in the rotation and bullpen.

Reds Activate Tyler Mahle, Place Jeff Hoffman On 15-Day Injured List

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The Reds have activated starter Tyler Mahle from the 15-day injured list to start today’s game. In a corresponding move, the club placed reliever Jeff Hoffman on the 15-day injured list. The Reds also activated Justin Dunn from the 60-day injured list and optioned the former Mariner to Triple-A, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (via Twitter).

Mahle has made 17 starts on the season, posting a 4.48 ERA/3.55 FIP across 92 1/3 innings with a 25.8 percent strikeout rate, 9.1 percent walk rate, and 34.5 percent groundball rate. Mahle will certainly find himself in some trade rumors over the next ten days, though the Reds do not have to move him. He has one season of arbitration remaining.

Hoffman’s injury does not appear to be serious, but they’ll give him a couple of weeks to make sure it doesn’t turn into something more involved. The 29-year-old has provided solid short-to-long-stint relief for the Reds, tossing 44 2/3 innings over 35 outings with a 3.83 ERA/4.30 FIP.

Dunn was acquired from the Mariners this past winter as part of the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suarez deal. He just completed his rehab assignment, making six starts in Triple-A and posting a 5.40 ERA over 20 innings of work. If the Reds end up moving a starter or two over the next ten days, Dunn could find himself with an opportunity back in the bigs. With the Mariners, he logged 102 2/3 innings over three years with a 3.94 ERA/5.61 FIP.

Reds Plan To Activate Tyler Mahle For Sunday Start

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The Reds are set to welcome right-hander Tyler Mahle back from the injured list this weekend, as they announced to reporters Wednesday that he’s in line to start Sunday’s game against the visiting Cardinals (Twitter link via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The team also reinstated right-hander Dauri Moreta from the Covid-related injured list and returned righty Ryan Hendrix to Triple-A Louisville.

Mahle, one of the most notable trade candidates on the summer market, hit the injured list with what was deemed a minor shoulder strain earlier this month. The 27-year-old righty said shortly thereafter that he planned to return quickly after the All-Star break, and that will indeed be the case. A Sunday return will give Mahle enough time to make two starts before the Aug. 2 trade deadline, so scouts from opposing clubs will have multiple opportunities to evaluate him on the heels of his recent shoulder issue.

Prior to landing on the injured list, Mahle was trending upward in terms of his performance. The former seventh-rounder got out to a brutal start this season but turned a corner in late May and stringing together a 2.58 ERA over a stretch of seven outings. Dating back to May 1, Mahle has a 3.86 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that fall in line with the standards he set when establishing himself as at least a quality mid-rotation hurler from 2020-21.

While Mahle doesn’t draw as much fanfare as rotation-mate Luis Castillo, he’s quietly built a nice track record at the big league level. Even including a pair of his worst-ever starts earlier this season (combined 15 runs allowed in 7 2/3 frames), Mahle has a 3.94 ERA in 320 innings dating back to the 2020 season. He’s punched out 27.5% of his opponents against an 8.9% walk rate along the way, sitting at 94 mph with his heater and brandishing a splitter and slider that have both graded out as above-average pitches at times. Lately, he’s gravitated more toward the low-spinning splitter — particularly against lefties.

It’s hard not to wonder how Mahle might fare with another club, as his hitter-friendly home park has been a thorn in his side even as he’s found success over the past three seasons. Mahle has a bloated 4.90 ERA and has yielded 1.71 homers per nine innings pitched at Great American Ball Park dating back to 2020. During that same three-year stretch, he’s notched an excellent 2.93 ERA on the road, while yielding an average of just 0.52 homers per nine innings.

Like Castillo, Mahle is controlled not only for the 2022 campaign but also through the 2023 season via arbitration. He’s being paid $5.2MM for the current season and will earn a raise on top of that figure for the 2023 season before hitting the free-agent market in advance of his age-29 campaign.

Reds Place Tyler Mahle On Injured List With Shoulder Strain

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2:54pm: Mahle tells reporters that an MRI revealed only irritation but no structural damage (Twitter thread via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Mahle said the issue is “not concerning at all” and that he plans to return shortly after the All-Star break.

1:28pm: The Reds announced Wednesday that right-hander Tyler Mahle has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a shoulder strain. The move is retroactive to Sunday. Righty Ian Gibaut, whom the Reds claimed off waivers this week, will take his spot on the active roster. Cincinnati also announced that catcher Chris Okey cleared waivers and will remain in the organization after being assigned outright to Triple-A Louisville.

Mahle, one of the more notable trade candidates in the National League, had been scheduled to start a game for the Reds tomorrow. The team has not yet provided a timetable on his potential return, but the earliest he’ll be able to return is just two weeks prior to the Aug. 2 trade deadline.

The timing of the injury is brutal for the Reds, who have watched as Mahle has shaken off a poor start and rounded into form as next month’s deadline looms. After pitching to a grisly 7.01 ERA through six starts and walking 14 of the first 120 hitters he faced (11.7%), Mahle has rebounded to the tune of a 3.51 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate and 8.0% walk rate across his past 66 2/3 frames. Nearly one-third of the 26 runs he’s allowed dating back to May 8 came in one nightmare outing against the Cubs on May 24 (eight runs in four innings). Since that start, Mahle owns a 2.58 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate in 45 1/3 frames.

For much of the season — and for much of the offseason — it’s looked as though Mahle, teammate Luis Castillo and A’s ace Frankie Montas would be the three most coveted names on the trade market. All three are affordably controlled through the 2023 season and have made substantial strides in recent years to establish themselves as (at least) quality mid-rotation hurlers. Now, with Mahle on the injured list for a yet-to-be-determined period and Montas dealing with shoulder inflammation of his own, Castillo suddenly stands as the lone, healthy member of that heavily speculated-upon trio.

It’s still possible, of course, that Mahle makes a quick return from the IL, pitches well and that his medical records look sufficiently clean for a trade to come together. There’s little denying that a shoulder strain just three-plus weeks from the deadline, however, is going to give any number of would-be trade partners a fair bit of trepidation regarding the righty’s short- and long-term outlook. If the Reds are ultimately unable to move Mahle, they’d be able to try again this winter or at the 2023 deadline, health permitting. His value won’t be nearly as high at either juncture, however.

With Mahle shelved for at least the next couple weeks, an even broader focus will be placed on Castillo, who has been excellent since missing the first month of the season recovering from a spring shoulder injury. Utilityman Brandon Drury has become an oft-suggested trade candidate, but the Reds also have a series of other possible candidates. Outfielders Tyler Naquin and Tommy Pham and southpaw Mike Minor are among the other veterans the Reds could peddle in the weeks to come.

Reds Return Aquino, Ashcraft, Motter To Minors

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MAY 23: As expected, Cincinnati announced this morning that Mahle, Almora, Kuhnel and Drury have been reinstated from the restricted list before tonight’s series opener with the Cubs. Aquino, Aschraft and Motter have been returned to the minors and are no longer on the 40-man roster.

MAY 20: The Reds announced a host of roster moves before their series against the Blue Jays. First baseman Joey Votto has been reinstated from the COVID-19 injured list. Outfielder Aristides Aquino, righty Graham Ashcraft and utilityman Taylor Motter have all been selected to the majors as designated COVID “substitutes.”

Cincinnati placed four players — Tyler Mahle, Albert Almora Jr., Joel Kuhnel and Brandon Drury — on the restricted list. That’s standard procedure for players who haven’t been vaccinated against COVID-19 playing on teams that are headed to Toronto. The Canadian government prohibits unvaccinated players from entering the country, so that quartet will be unavailable for this weekend’s series.

Votto returns after missing more than two weeks because of virus concerns. The six-time All-Star began experiencing COVID symptoms during the first week of May, and he wound up missing enough time the organization sent him on a brief minor league rehab assignment. After a pair of appearances with Triple-A Louisville, the Toronto native returns for a set against his hometown club. He’ll look to right the ship offensively after the time off; Votto has opened the season in a dreadful .122/.278/.135 slump through 22 games.

Aquino, Motter and Ashcraft all occupy temporary spots on the roster. That the club specified they were COVID substitutes suggests it’s likely to be a brief stint for all three. Players whose contracts are selected with that designation can be removed from the 40-man roster and returned to the minors without passing through waivers as the team returns to full strength. In the Reds’ case, that’ll be after this series, so each of Aquino, Motter and Ashcraft is probably only up for three days.

The righty-hitting Aquino opened the year in the majors but got out to an awful start. He was outrighted off the roster earlier this month, but he’s tattooed Triple-A pitching (.314/.405/.743 with four homers) through ten games. Motter signed a minor league deal last month. The righty-hitting utilityman is hitting .245/.344/.566 with Louisville and offers some multi-positional depth in Drury’s place.

While this figures to be a brief stint for Ashcraft, the 24-year-old will probably play a notable role on the roster before too long. A sixth-round pick out of UAB in 2019, the 6’2″ hurler has quickly developed into one of the better arms in the farm system. Ashcraft split last season between High-A Dayton and Double-A Chattanooga, posting an even 3.00 ERA across 111 innings. He’s spent this year with Louisville, working to a 1.65 ERA over seven starts, albeit without great strikeout or walk numbers.

Baseball America recently ranked Ashcraft the #12 prospect in the Cincinnati organization, praising a mid-90s cut fastball that serves as his primary offering. Both BA and FanGraphs — which slotted him #17 in the system — suggest that Ashcraft’s below-average changeup and inconsistent control point to a long-term bullpen future, but he’s remained a starter to this point as a pro. Ashcraft will have to be added to the 40-man roster next offseason to keep him from selection in the Rule 5 draft, and potential trades by the last-place Reds could open an extended opportunity for him later this summer.

Cincinnati also announced that shortstop José Barrero will begin a rehab assignment with the Bats. The club’s anticipated regular shortstop, he hasn’t played this season after suffering a hamate injury during Spring Training. Position players can spend up to 20 days on rehab assignments, suggesting Barrero’s set to make his 2022 debut within the next three weeks assuming all goes well in the minors.

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