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Tyler Mahle

NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Mahle, Drury, Quintana, Blue Jays, Sosa

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The Cardinals’ search for starting pitching has taken them inside their division, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link) reports that St. Louis is one of the many clubs interested in Reds righty Tyler Mahle.  With the Cards looking at all options for rotation help, it only makes sense that they’d be at least checking in on Mahle’s services.

The Phillies, Twins, and Mets are among the clubs linked to Mahle since the start of the season, while the Rangers also reportedly had interest during the offseason.  With Luis Castillo already off the board, it’s fair to guess that most pitching-needy teams have spoken to the Reds about Mahle, and on paper the Cardinals have the kind of young talent that the Reds would surely demand.  However, it is possible Cincinnati might want a higher price for moving Mahle to a division rival — as Morosi notes, the Reds and Cardinals haven’t completed a player-for-player trade since 1997, so it would count as a surprise on some level if Mahle ended up in St. Louis.

More notes from around the NL Central…

  • Just because Castillo has been traded doesn’t mean the Reds are necessarily likelier to hang onto Mahle, since CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson hears that Mahle and Brandon Drury are expected to both be on new teams after the deadline.  Drury is a free agent after the season and thus an obvious trade chip, though Mahle is still under team control through 2023.  But, it now seems like Cincinnati is going to dive into something close to a full rebuild, a process that really started over the winter when they moved several other veteran talents.
  • The Blue Jays are in the mix for Pirates starter Jose Quintana, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, along with such previously-reported suitors as the Yankees and White Sox.  The veteran left-hander is having a bounce-back season after struggling in 2019-21, and Quintana could help bolster an inconsistent Toronto rotation.  Pirates GM Ben Cherington previously worked in the Jays’ front office, so this familiarity with the AL East side’s prospects could help the Blue Jays in the bidding, though the two sides haven’t completed a player-for-player trade in the two-plus years since Cherington went to Pittsburgh.
  • The Yankees were one of the other teams interested in Edmundo Sosa before the Cardinals dealt Sosa to the Phillies, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  Sosa would’ve been an interesting depth add to the Yankees’ infield, and it is even possible that Sosa could have worked his way into a timeshare with Isiah Kiner-Falefa at shortstop.

Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Search

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The Phillies are looking to add a front-of-the-rotation type of arm, with The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (Twitter links) writing that the Phils want “a starter who can start a playoff game.”  To this end, the club has been linked to such arms as the Reds’ Tyler Mahle, the Angels’ Noah Syndergaard, and the Pirates’ Jose Quintana — three of the most prominent starting pitchers remaining on the trade market.

Mahle is controlled through the 2023 season, while Syndergaard and Quintana would be pure rentals as players who are scheduled for free agency this winter.  As such, Mahle would surely cost the most in a trade, and Syndergaard carries a bit of a financial hit, with roughly $7.2MM still owed to him over the remainder of the season.  By contrast, Quintana is owed only around $675K for the rest of 2022, but Quintana also has a shaky track record over the last few seasons before righting himself this year in Pittsburgh.

Dave Dombrowski, Philadelphia’s president of baseball operations, suggested earlier this week that his team was hoping to bolster the rotation, but the Phils were also hesitant about dealing any of their top prospects.  Stark backs up that assertion, noting that the Phillies haven’t been willing to move any of Mick Abel, Andrew Painter or Logan O’Hoppe (the Phils’ consensus top-three prospects in the view of Baseball America and MLB Pipeline), or right-handed pitching propects Griff McGarry or Ben Brown.  BA ranks McGarry fourth and Brown seventh in their ranking of Phillies prospects, while Pipeline is a little less bullish, ranking McGarry eighth and Brown 26th.

Since the Phillies’ system isn’t considered to be too deep overall, it isn’t any surprise that the front office isn’t keen on parting ways with any of the relatively few premium names on hand in the minors.  However, as Stark observes, the Phils will find it difficult to obtain higher-tier pitching unless they’re open to trading prospects.  Given the amount of interest Mahle has received from around the league, and given what the Reds just obtained from the Mariners in the Luis Castillo deal, it would seem almost impossible for the Phillies to land Mahle without at least one of the blue-chip prospects.

Syndergaard and Quintana would come at a lower price tag as rental players, but Stark notes that Dombrowski also prefers controllable starters.  This was Philadelphia’s strategy in landing Kyle Gibson from the Rangers at last year’s deadline, and landing a starter who is controlled through at least 2023 would give the Phillies some cover since Gibson and Zach Eflin could both be free agents this winter.

The rotation seems to be Philadelphia’s top priority at this point, as Stark says that the Phillies aren’t focused on any bullpen moves for the moment.  This is a little surprising given the Phils’ longstanding needs in the relief corps, but it could be that Dombrowski is first exploring his options with the starter market before turning to the (relatively) easier route of adding relievers.  Also, virtually every contender in baseball is looking for relievers right now, so Dombrowski could be opting to make some late strikes after the first wave or two of bullpen trades have been made.

Twins Rumors: Mahle, Castillo, Marlins, Coulombe, Winder, Catcher

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The Twins currently hold a 2.5-game lead in the American League Central, but another poor performance from a pitching staff that has squandered far too many leads this season cost them a win over the Brewers last night. Upgrading the pitching staff will be a priority for the Twins before next Tuesday’s deadline, and to that end, they’ve been in the market on both Reds ace Luis Castillo and Athletics top starter Frankie Montas, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, however, writes that the Twins are more interested in Castillo’s teammate Tyler Mahle than in Castillo himself. Hayes adds that the Twins have been in talks with the Marlins about pitching help. Minnesota and Miami, it should be noted, have had talks regarding potential swaps sending pitching to Minnesota frequently in offseasons past. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, and reliever Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro and Steven Okert are a few speculative trade candidates in the Marlins’ bullpen. Generally speaking, the Marlins are deep in pitching options that’ll appeal not only to the Twins but other clubs seeking upgrades.

Whether the preference for Mahle over Castillo — which Hayes also indicated back in the offseason — is a reflection of asking price or of the Twins’ belief that he has the superior raw stuff isn’t clear. But Mahle has flown somewhat under the radar for the past few seasons despite being quite similar, statistically, to both Castillo and Montas since 2020.

It’s hard not to wonder just what Mahle’s performance might look like in another uniform, as his numbers away from the homer-happy Great American Ball Park are tantalizing. Few pitchers have such a dramatic home/road split as Mahle, who since 2020 has pitched to a 2.93 ERA on the road but an ugly 4.89 mark at home. Mahle has allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings pitched in Cincinnati, compared to just 0.52 long balls per nine on the road. He also has a better strikeout rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate than either Castillo or Montas, dating back to 2020 — albeit with the highest walk rate of the three.

Broadly speaking, Mahle is much closer to the Montas/Castillo tier of pitcher than most pundits credit him. And, with a $5.2MM salary compared to Castillo’s $7.35MM mark, he’s a bit more affordable than his teammate and right in line with Montas ($5MM). Like that duo, he’s controlled through the 2023 season.

Mahle got out to an awful start in 2022, pitching to a 6.32 ERA through his first ten appearances. However, most of the damage against him came in two brutal outings — eight runs versus the Cubs on May 24 and seven runs against the Dodgers on April 17 — and he’s been excellent over the past two months. Dating back to May 29, Mahle has a 2.81 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 51 1/3 innings. Overall, he’s sitting on a 4.48 ERA this season, but marks like xERA (3.30) and FIP (3.78) feel he’s been quite a bit better than that. A minor shoulder strain sent him to the IL earlier this month, but Mahle returned Sunday to fire six quality innings.

Regardless of the specific names they acquire, the Twins seem nearly certain to augment both their rotation and their bullpen in the next six days. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been their only two consistently reliable arms, and their ’pen depth took a further hit yesterday when left-hander Danny Coulombe was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Twins announced today that Coulombe required season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip, subtracting a quietly useful lefty from the mix.

The 32-year-old Coulombe is a journeyman southpaw who found a home in the Twins organization back in 2020. He only made two appearances with the Twins that season but returned on a minor league deal in 2021 and has been solid overall in the Twins’ relief corps. Dating back to 2020, Coulombe has pitched 49 1/3 innings with aa 2.92 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. He’ll get big league service time while finishing out the year on the 60-day IL, but he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following that surgery.

Meanwhile, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that promising young righty Josh Winder, one of the Twins’ brightest arms and currently the game’s No. 68 prospect at Baseball America, is being shut due to recurring shoulder discomfort. The Twins are still trying to determine the cause of the issue, but the loss of Winder, who’s already given them 45 1/3 Major League innings (3.77 ERA) is a huge hit to the Twins’ rotation and bullpen depth.

For all the focus on the Twins’ pitching staff, it’s not their only area of need. Catcher Ryan Jeffers’ fractured thumb will sideline him for up to eight weeks, which has pushed Gary Sanchez into a starting catcher role with Minnesota. He’d previously been used more evenly between designated hitter and catcher, but Sanchez will now get the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate now. Caleb Hamilton, a 2016 23-round pick who’d never hit much above A-ball prior to this season, is currently serving as his backup.

It’s not terribly surprising, then, that Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North mentions in his latest podcast that the Twins will explore the market for a more veteran backup to Sanchez. Twins fans probably shouldn’t expect to see Willson Contreras riding into town anytime soon, but players like Tucker Barnhart or Pedro Severino jump out as possibly available veteran backups.

Wolfson adds, via Twitter, that outfield prospect Matt Wallner and infield prospect Spencer Steer have been mentioned in trade scenarios the team has had recently —  and understandably so. Wallner, the No. 39 overall pick in 2019, recently jumped to Triple-A after posting a .299/.436/.597 batting line (157 wRC+) and 21 homers in 342 plate appearances with the Twins’ Double-A club. Steer, selected just 51 picks after Wallner, is hitting a combined .274/.359/.549 in 78 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He recently just landed in the No. 99 spot on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 prospect ranking. Certainly, neither Wallner nor Steer would be included in a small trade for a backup catcher, but it’s easy to see both being the type of players coveted by teams peddling controllable help in the rotation and bullpen.

Reds Activate Tyler Mahle, Place Jeff Hoffman On 15-Day Injured List

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The Reds have activated starter Tyler Mahle from the 15-day injured list to start today’s game. In a corresponding move, the club placed reliever Jeff Hoffman on the 15-day injured list. The Reds also activated Justin Dunn from the 60-day injured list and optioned the former Mariner to Triple-A, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (via Twitter).

Mahle has made 17 starts on the season, posting a 4.48 ERA/3.55 FIP across 92 1/3 innings with a 25.8 percent strikeout rate, 9.1 percent walk rate, and 34.5 percent groundball rate. Mahle will certainly find himself in some trade rumors over the next ten days, though the Reds do not have to move him. He has one season of arbitration remaining.

Hoffman’s injury does not appear to be serious, but they’ll give him a couple of weeks to make sure it doesn’t turn into something more involved. The 29-year-old has provided solid short-to-long-stint relief for the Reds, tossing 44 2/3 innings over 35 outings with a 3.83 ERA/4.30 FIP.

Dunn was acquired from the Mariners this past winter as part of the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suarez deal. He just completed his rehab assignment, making six starts in Triple-A and posting a 5.40 ERA over 20 innings of work. If the Reds end up moving a starter or two over the next ten days, Dunn could find himself with an opportunity back in the bigs. With the Mariners, he logged 102 2/3 innings over three years with a 3.94 ERA/5.61 FIP.

Reds Plan To Activate Tyler Mahle For Sunday Start

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The Reds are set to welcome right-hander Tyler Mahle back from the injured list this weekend, as they announced to reporters Wednesday that he’s in line to start Sunday’s game against the visiting Cardinals (Twitter link via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The team also reinstated right-hander Dauri Moreta from the Covid-related injured list and returned righty Ryan Hendrix to Triple-A Louisville.

Mahle, one of the most notable trade candidates on the summer market, hit the injured list with what was deemed a minor shoulder strain earlier this month. The 27-year-old righty said shortly thereafter that he planned to return quickly after the All-Star break, and that will indeed be the case. A Sunday return will give Mahle enough time to make two starts before the Aug. 2 trade deadline, so scouts from opposing clubs will have multiple opportunities to evaluate him on the heels of his recent shoulder issue.

Prior to landing on the injured list, Mahle was trending upward in terms of his performance. The former seventh-rounder got out to a brutal start this season but turned a corner in late May and stringing together a 2.58 ERA over a stretch of seven outings. Dating back to May 1, Mahle has a 3.86 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that fall in line with the standards he set when establishing himself as at least a quality mid-rotation hurler from 2020-21.

While Mahle doesn’t draw as much fanfare as rotation-mate Luis Castillo, he’s quietly built a nice track record at the big league level. Even including a pair of his worst-ever starts earlier this season (combined 15 runs allowed in 7 2/3 frames), Mahle has a 3.94 ERA in 320 innings dating back to the 2020 season. He’s punched out 27.5% of his opponents against an 8.9% walk rate along the way, sitting at 94 mph with his heater and brandishing a splitter and slider that have both graded out as above-average pitches at times. Lately, he’s gravitated more toward the low-spinning splitter — particularly against lefties.

It’s hard not to wonder how Mahle might fare with another club, as his hitter-friendly home park has been a thorn in his side even as he’s found success over the past three seasons. Mahle has a bloated 4.90 ERA and has yielded 1.71 homers per nine innings pitched at Great American Ball Park dating back to 2020. During that same three-year stretch, he’s notched an excellent 2.93 ERA on the road, while yielding an average of just 0.52 homers per nine innings.

Like Castillo, Mahle is controlled not only for the 2022 campaign but also through the 2023 season via arbitration. He’s being paid $5.2MM for the current season and will earn a raise on top of that figure for the 2023 season before hitting the free-agent market in advance of his age-29 campaign.

Reds Place Tyler Mahle On Injured List With Shoulder Strain

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2:54pm: Mahle tells reporters that an MRI revealed only irritation but no structural damage (Twitter thread via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Mahle said the issue is “not concerning at all” and that he plans to return shortly after the All-Star break.

1:28pm: The Reds announced Wednesday that right-hander Tyler Mahle has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a shoulder strain. The move is retroactive to Sunday. Righty Ian Gibaut, whom the Reds claimed off waivers this week, will take his spot on the active roster. Cincinnati also announced that catcher Chris Okey cleared waivers and will remain in the organization after being assigned outright to Triple-A Louisville.

Mahle, one of the more notable trade candidates in the National League, had been scheduled to start a game for the Reds tomorrow. The team has not yet provided a timetable on his potential return, but the earliest he’ll be able to return is just two weeks prior to the Aug. 2 trade deadline.

The timing of the injury is brutal for the Reds, who have watched as Mahle has shaken off a poor start and rounded into form as next month’s deadline looms. After pitching to a grisly 7.01 ERA through six starts and walking 14 of the first 120 hitters he faced (11.7%), Mahle has rebounded to the tune of a 3.51 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate and 8.0% walk rate across his past 66 2/3 frames. Nearly one-third of the 26 runs he’s allowed dating back to May 8 came in one nightmare outing against the Cubs on May 24 (eight runs in four innings). Since that start, Mahle owns a 2.58 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate in 45 1/3 frames.

For much of the season — and for much of the offseason — it’s looked as though Mahle, teammate Luis Castillo and A’s ace Frankie Montas would be the three most coveted names on the trade market. All three are affordably controlled through the 2023 season and have made substantial strides in recent years to establish themselves as (at least) quality mid-rotation hurlers. Now, with Mahle on the injured list for a yet-to-be-determined period and Montas dealing with shoulder inflammation of his own, Castillo suddenly stands as the lone, healthy member of that heavily speculated-upon trio.

It’s still possible, of course, that Mahle makes a quick return from the IL, pitches well and that his medical records look sufficiently clean for a trade to come together. There’s little denying that a shoulder strain just three-plus weeks from the deadline, however, is going to give any number of would-be trade partners a fair bit of trepidation regarding the righty’s short- and long-term outlook. If the Reds are ultimately unable to move Mahle, they’d be able to try again this winter or at the 2023 deadline, health permitting. His value won’t be nearly as high at either juncture, however.

With Mahle shelved for at least the next couple weeks, an even broader focus will be placed on Castillo, who has been excellent since missing the first month of the season recovering from a spring shoulder injury. Utilityman Brandon Drury has become an oft-suggested trade candidate, but the Reds also have a series of other possible candidates. Outfielders Tyler Naquin and Tommy Pham and southpaw Mike Minor are among the other veterans the Reds could peddle in the weeks to come.

Reds Return Aquino, Ashcraft, Motter To Minors

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MAY 23: As expected, Cincinnati announced this morning that Mahle, Almora, Kuhnel and Drury have been reinstated from the restricted list before tonight’s series opener with the Cubs. Aquino, Aschraft and Motter have been returned to the minors and are no longer on the 40-man roster.

MAY 20: The Reds announced a host of roster moves before their series against the Blue Jays. First baseman Joey Votto has been reinstated from the COVID-19 injured list. Outfielder Aristides Aquino, righty Graham Ashcraft and utilityman Taylor Motter have all been selected to the majors as designated COVID “substitutes.”

Cincinnati placed four players — Tyler Mahle, Albert Almora Jr., Joel Kuhnel and Brandon Drury — on the restricted list. That’s standard procedure for players who haven’t been vaccinated against COVID-19 playing on teams that are headed to Toronto. The Canadian government prohibits unvaccinated players from entering the country, so that quartet will be unavailable for this weekend’s series.

Votto returns after missing more than two weeks because of virus concerns. The six-time All-Star began experiencing COVID symptoms during the first week of May, and he wound up missing enough time the organization sent him on a brief minor league rehab assignment. After a pair of appearances with Triple-A Louisville, the Toronto native returns for a set against his hometown club. He’ll look to right the ship offensively after the time off; Votto has opened the season in a dreadful .122/.278/.135 slump through 22 games.

Aquino, Motter and Ashcraft all occupy temporary spots on the roster. That the club specified they were COVID substitutes suggests it’s likely to be a brief stint for all three. Players whose contracts are selected with that designation can be removed from the 40-man roster and returned to the minors without passing through waivers as the team returns to full strength. In the Reds’ case, that’ll be after this series, so each of Aquino, Motter and Ashcraft is probably only up for three days.

The righty-hitting Aquino opened the year in the majors but got out to an awful start. He was outrighted off the roster earlier this month, but he’s tattooed Triple-A pitching (.314/.405/.743 with four homers) through ten games. Motter signed a minor league deal last month. The righty-hitting utilityman is hitting .245/.344/.566 with Louisville and offers some multi-positional depth in Drury’s place.

While this figures to be a brief stint for Ashcraft, the 24-year-old will probably play a notable role on the roster before too long. A sixth-round pick out of UAB in 2019, the 6’2″ hurler has quickly developed into one of the better arms in the farm system. Ashcraft split last season between High-A Dayton and Double-A Chattanooga, posting an even 3.00 ERA across 111 innings. He’s spent this year with Louisville, working to a 1.65 ERA over seven starts, albeit without great strikeout or walk numbers.

Baseball America recently ranked Ashcraft the #12 prospect in the Cincinnati organization, praising a mid-90s cut fastball that serves as his primary offering. Both BA and FanGraphs — which slotted him #17 in the system — suggest that Ashcraft’s below-average changeup and inconsistent control point to a long-term bullpen future, but he’s remained a starter to this point as a pro. Ashcraft will have to be added to the 40-man roster next offseason to keep him from selection in the Rule 5 draft, and potential trades by the last-place Reds could open an extended opportunity for him later this summer.

Cincinnati also announced that shortstop José Barrero will begin a rehab assignment with the Bats. The club’s anticipated regular shortstop, he hasn’t played this season after suffering a hamate injury during Spring Training. Position players can spend up to 20 days on rehab assignments, suggesting Barrero’s set to make his 2022 debut within the next three weeks assuming all goes well in the minors.

Mets Scouting Frankie Montas, Tyler Mahle

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The Mets have recently had scouts watching Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas and Reds right-hander Tyler Mahle, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports.  With the aggressive Mets clearly focused on a championship this year, it isn’t surprising that the club is already looking ahead to possible trade candidates on struggling teams.

Montas is over 18 months older than Mahle, but the two have quite a bit in common.  The two righties are under control through the 2023 season via a third and final arbitration year, both have already been mentioned in trade speculation for months, and both have already made it through an offseason of payroll cuts by their respective teams.  In fact, the Mets and A’s already combined on a big pitching deal during the offseason when Chris Bassitt was brought to Queens.

Thus far in 2022, Montas has clearly been the better of the two pitchers in terms of bottom-line numbers, with a 3.67 ERA in 49 innings to Mahle’s 5.23 ERA over 43 innings.  The advanced metrics also generally favor Montas, though Mahle’s 4.28 xFIP and 4.15 SIERA paint a bit more of an optimistic view of his 2022 performance, and Mahle appears to be on the upswing with a 2.60 ERA over his last 17 1/3 frames.

It stands to reason that the Mets will probably at least monitor just about every available arm heading into the August 2 deadline, considering that Montas and Mahle figure to get attention from most or all pitching-needy clubs.  Oakland or Cincinnati probably have some idea of what some suitors are already willing to give up for either pitcher, based on offseason talks — the White Sox, Twins, Yankees, Tigers, Mariners, Rays, and Royals all reportedly had interest in Montas over the winter, while the Blue Jays and Rangers were linked to Mahle.

Despite a number of rotation injuries this season, the Mets have gotten quality work from just about every starter who has taken the mound.  However, health remains a concern, as Max Scherzer will miss 6-8 weeks with an oblique strain, Tylor Megill is on the IL with biceps inflammation, and Jacob deGrom has yet to throw a pitch this season due to a stress reaction his throwing shoulder.  Jumping to swing a deal with the Reds or A’s now would cost the Mets a heavier price in prospects, and it could be that New York will wait until closer to the deadline to make a move, as the Mets already have a sizeable cushion of a lead in the NL East race.

GM: Reds Do Not Expect To Trade Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle

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Although the Reds’ offseason has consisted primarily of cutting payroll, general manager Nick Krall suggested to reporters this afternoon that his focus will now shift to adding to the roster rather than subtracting (Twitter link via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). Specifically regarding sought-after right-handers Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle, Krall stated: “I don’t see us moving any of those two players.”

Cincinnati’s offseason kicked off with Krall ominously stating that the organization needed to “align our payroll to our resources.” Those comments came in conjunction with the decision to waive Wade Miley and his $10MM salary following a strong season and to trade former Gold Glove-winning catcher Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers.

Following the lockout, the Reds traded veteran right-hander Sonny Gray to the Twins and attached third baseman Eugenio Suarez (still owed $35MM) to All-Star left fielder Jesse Winker in order to get the Mariners to take on the remaining salary. Cincinnati acquired prospects in both those post-lockout deals — pitchers Brandon Williamson and Chase Petty most notably — but the broader takeaway was that those trades trimmed nearly $50MM in payroll off the books.

There has indeed been something of a shift in philosophy today, as the Reds took on more than $7MM in salary when they flipped Amir Garrett to the Royals in exchange for veteran starter Mike Minor. They’ve also agreed to a $4.5MM deal with veteran infielder Donovan Solano. The moves certainly don’t make up for the losses of Miley, Gray and Winker, at least in terms of competitive expectations, but they do at least push back against the teardown narrative that had formed.

While some will wonder whether this is mere posturing, it’s rare for an executive to make public comments of this nature only to later walk them back. It’s possible that a team could simply overwhelm the Reds and force them to part with either Castillo or Mahle, both of whom are controlled via arbitration through the 2023 season, but it now seems likelier that they’ll open the year in the rotation alongside the newly acquired Minor.

If Castillo and Mahle are indeed off that market, that’s music to the ears of the Athletics, who surely won’t be making any such public declarations regarding lefty Sean Manaea and right-hander Frankie Montas. The A’s have already traded Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Chris Bassitt as they look to trim payroll and stock back up on young talent, and it stands to reason that with heavy interest in both Manaea and Montas, further trades will follow suit. Subtracting Castillo and Mahle from the market only reduces the supply of available starters on the market and enhances Oakland’s bargaining power.

Blue Jays “Very Interested” In Tyler Mahle Prior To Lockout

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4:29 pm: The Jays also had interest in Gray and Castillo before the lockout, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. That’s hardly a surprise, given that all three Cincinnati arms figure to draw plenty of attention from rival clubs whenever the transactions freeze ends.

12:51 pm: The Blue Jays had Tyler Mahle on their radar as a trade target before the lockout, as TSN’s Scott Mitchell hears from a source that the Jays “were very interested” in the Reds right-hander.  The exact timing of the Jays’ interest isn’t specified, or whether or not the club may have moved on from big-ticket pitching acquisitions after signing Kevin Gausman.

Cincinnati GM Nick Krall began the offseason with a quick trade of catcher Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers, and followed that deal up with his now somewhat infamous statement that the Reds “must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.”  Wade Miley (who had a $10MM club option for 2022) was then placed on waivers and claimed by the Cubs, thus sparking even more speculation about just how much payroll the Reds were looking to shed.

As such, players like Mahle, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, and many other veteran Reds players were immediately seen as trade candidates, even though Cincinnati didn’t make any other overt cost-cutting transactions before the lockout hit.  As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco speculated last month, it could be that between the Barnhart/Miley moves and Nick Castellanos’ likely free agent departure, the Reds might have already gotten their finances in order.  On top of that, the Reds were reportedly open to discussing Gray in trade talks but not either Mahle or Castillo.

This isn’t to say that the Reds wouldn’t at least listen if Toronto or another team came calling with a big offer, and if the Reds still had designs on contending in 2022, the Blue Jays could offer some combination of both young talent and big league-ready pieces.  Cincinnati would likely only accept such a significant trade package for Mahle given that he is both controlled through the 2023 season and coming off the strongest of his five years in the majors.

The 27-year-old righty has been both durable (227 2/3 innings) and effective since the start of the 2020 season, posting a 3.72 ERA and a 28.3% strikeout rate, though Mahle’s 8.9% walk rate was below the league average.  Mahle did have strong fastball spin rates in both seasons, and 2021 saw Mahle post far and away the best hard-hit ball rate of his career.

Mahle seems overqualified for a fourth or fifth starter role, yet that might be where he lines up in a Toronto rotation that also consists of Gausman, Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Alek Manoah.  Ross Stripling is penciled in as the fifth starter for the moment, though as Mitchell notes, Stripling “profiles better as a swingman and spot starter” than as a regular rotation member.  Top prospect Nate Pearson is likely going to be on an innings limit after two injury-plagued seasons, so while a Pearson/Stripling combo isn’t bad on paper, the Jays might prefer to shift both pitchers into depth roles and cement their rotation by adding some sort of veteran starter, perhaps even one as accomplished as Mahle.

While it remains to be seen if Cincinnati will ultimately deal any of its three starters, the fact that all three may be available to some degree gives the Reds some leverage in talks.  In that sense, the Jays aren’t only bidding against other teams interested in Mahle, but also against what other teams (like the Dodgers or Angels) might offer the Reds for Castillo and/or Gray.  Given how aggressive Toronto GM Ross Atkins has been in searching out pitching options over the last few years, it is probably safe to assume that the Jays have also checked in on obtaining Castillo or Gray, though only the Blue Jays front office knows which Cincinnati starter is their chief target.

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