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Tyson Ross

NL Notes: Mets, Reyes, Padres, Schwarber

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The Mets bringing back soon-to-be free agent shortstop Jose Reyes is a “long shot,” a source told Newsday’s David Lennon, who reports that the door isn’t closed on the possibility. As of now, the Mets are in wait-and-see mode with the 33-year-old Reyes, whom the Rockies designated for assignment earlier this week on the heels of a subpar 2015 showing and, more importantly, a 52-game domestic violence suspension. Reyes would bring much-needed speed to a Mets team with the fewest stolen bases in the National League (13), notes Lennon, who adds that he’d come at a cheap price and, unlike other options, wouldn’t require the club to trade prospects. If the Mets do reunite with Reyes, they’d likely put him at second base and move Neil Walker to third to replace the injured David Wright, per Lennon. During his Mets tenure from 2003-11, Reyes hit a terrific .292/.341/.441 in 4,840 plate appearances, racked up 380 steals, made the All-Star team four times and accounted for 30.7 fWAR.

More from Queens and two other NL destinations:

  • The Mets agreed to trade right-hander Zack Wheeler to the Brewers last summer for Carlos Gomez, but that deal fell through because of concerns over the outfielder’s health. A year later, the Mets have “close to zero interest” in using Wheeler as deadline trade bait, a source informed Lennon. Wheeler could return next month from 2015 Tommy John surgery, and the Mets regard him as either a key down-the-stretch piece in a potential six-man rotation or an option for their bullpen.
  • Padres ace Tyson Ross threw a bullpen session Saturday, his first since succumbing to right shoulder inflammation in early April, according to Carlos Collazo of MLB.com. Ross remains a long way off from returning to the majors, though, said manager Andy Green. That would seem to decrease the already fading chances of Ross going anywhere prior to the deadline.
  • One of Ross’ rotation mates, fellow righty Andrew Cashner, has been on the disabled list since June 11 with a strained neck. Cashner still isn’t ready to throw a BP session and will miss longer than the minimum 15 days as a result, tweets AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Cashner, like Ross, was regarded as a valuable trade chip for the Padres entering the season. However, the 29-year-old Cashner has likely hurt his stock with two DL stints and less-than-stellar production (4.75 ERA, 6.1 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 across 53 innings).
  • Cubs catcher/outfielder Kyle Schwarber is “hitting all his range of motion checkpoints exactly on schedule,” president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Schwarber, who suffered a season-ending torn ACL and LCL in his left knee on April 7, is currently on track to return for spring training next year. In the meantime, he assisted the Cubs during the amateur draft earlier this month. “’Schwarbs’ sat in the draft room with us while the team was away,” said Epstein. “He’s always looking for ways to contribute to the organization. He added some levity to the room.”

NL West Injury Notes: Parra, Maeda, Cain, Ross

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Rockies outfielder Gerardo Parra was removed from tonight’s game on a medical cart after suffering an apparent leg injury, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports. The injury occurred in a scary collision with shortstop Trevor Story, who wasn’t hurt. Parra’s outlook appears to be better than feared, as manager Walt Weiss told reporters that the preliminary diagnosis was a sprained ankle. (Via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post; Twitter link.) His reaction to the impact suggested a more serious injury, but hopefully nothing more is revealed over the coming days.

Here’s the latest from other injury situations in the NL West:

  • The Dodgers got fairly promising preliminary news on righty Kenta Maeda, who exited his outing tonight after being struck by a sharply-hit ball in his right leg. The club announced that X-rays were negative, though certainly Maeda will need additional evaluation after he needed help to make it off of the field. Los Angeles will hope that it’s not a significant problem, as Maeda has been the club’s most productive starter outside of ace Clayton Kershaw.
  • Giants righty Matt Cain is headed back to the DL with a re-aggravation of his hamstring strain, as Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area was among those to tweet. San Francisco will recall Chris Stratton for the time being, but the move raises yet more questions about the back of the rotation. Cain is still just 31, but it’s far from clear whether he’ll be a reliable member of the Giants’ staff this year or beyond. In 118 innings over the past two seasons, he has managed only a 5.57 ERA as he has dealt with a growing list of injury troubles.
  • Padres righty Tyson Ross may be ready to throw off of a mound this weekend, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter. It’s still unclear whether he’ll be able to ramp up in time to make himself into a real deadline chip for the Pads. Regardless, it’s certainly promising to hear that Ross is still progressing.

Injury Notes: Ross, Teixeira, Salazar, Soler, Angels

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While Padres righty Tyson Ross is progressing through his throwing program, he is not expected to make it back until after the All-Star game, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweets. The expectation is that Ross will begin throwing bullpens in a few weeks, and his timeline should gain more clarity once he reaches the mound. A return in mid-July could in theory put him in play at the trade deadline, but it seems increasingly likely that Ross won’t be shopped until after the season.

Here are a few more injury notes from around the game:

  • Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira will forego surgery on his right knee in hopes that he’ll be game-ready in three weeks’ time, as Roger Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reports. That doesn’t necessarily mean that he’ll be expected at the major league level at that point, as the length of his layoff could require at least a brief rehab stint. The struggling veteran has already been placed on the 15-day DL after being diagnosed with a cartilage tear.
  • Indians righty Danny Salazar will miss his next start due to shoulder fatigue, the club announced. It seems that the hope is it won’t be much more than that, as he’d likely be placed on the DL to free a roster spot otherwise. Salazar’s status remains worth watching, however. The 26-year-old has been outstanding in his first 11 starts. Cleveland will go to Cody Anderson for the spot start. While he’s struggled at times this year in the majors, Anderson has dominated in three Triple-A starts and is as good an insurance policy as you’ll find around the game.
  • The Cubs had to pull outfielder Jorge Soler from tonight’s action due to a hamstring injury, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. He’s headed in for an MRI tomorrow, but it seems as if a DL stint could be in his future. Veteran minor-leaguer Matt Murton could get consideration if that proves necessary, but skipper Joe Maddon also suggested that prospect Albert Almora could receive consideration.
  • Meanwhile, the Angels continue to sort through a host of pitching ailments, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports. Of immediate concern, set-up man Joe Smith is hoping to stave off a trip to the DL with a hamstring injury. Starters Tyler Skaggs and C.J. Wilson are both in different stages of the rehab process. The former is expected to head out on a rehab assignment after a five-inning extended spring appearance tomorrow. And the latter hopes to re-start a throwing program this week.
  • The Angels are also waiting for some position players, as Fletcher further covers. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons (thumb surgery) could return to the majors as soon as Friday; outfielder Daniel Nava (groin) has only just returned to baseball activities; and catcher Geovany Soto (knee surgery) is throwing but has yet to hit or get into the crouch.

Injury Notes: Jordan, Gray, Ross, Martin, Ottavino, Smith, Chirinos

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Nationals right-hander Taylor Jordan underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday, the team announced. It’s his second time undergoing a UCL replacement for the 27-year-old. Jordan burst onto the scene for the Nats in 2013, but has failed to maintain that promise at the major league level. He did have a strong season in the results department last year at Triple-A, though, and allowed just three earned runs in 15 2/3 innings in his first three starts of the 2016 campaign. Now, it’ll be at least a year or so before Jordan can try to get back on track.

Here’s more on some injury situations around the game:

  • Athletics staff ace Sonny Gray is readying to throw from a mound tomorrow, per Joe Stiglich of Comcast SportsNet California (via Twitter). It’s certainly good to hear that Gray feels good enough to begin working his way back from a trapezius issue, though his timeline remains completely unknown.
  • Padres skipper Andy Green says that righty Tyson Ross may be ready to begin throwing within one week’s time, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter. It’s been a slow process for Ross, as the Pads seek to ensure that his shoulder issues don’t worsen. While the trade deadline remains two months away, leaving some time to turn him back into a potentially valuable trade chip, it’s worth bearing in mind that Ross will need a full build-up and rehab stint before returning to the major league hill.
  • The Mariners have placed outfielder Leonys Martin on the 15-day DL today with a hamstring strain, the club announced. The team had believed he might avoid such an outcome altogether, so it doesn’t seem as if there’s any reason for significant concern. Stefen Romero will take Martin’s roster spot for the meantime. Martin, an offseason trade acquisition, had been off to an eye-opening .262/.339/.483 start at the plate for Seattle.
  • Rockies reliever Adam Ottavino is nearly ready to throw live batting practice, Nick Groke of the Denver Post reports on Twitter. He’s still working back from Tommy John surgery, but it’s encouraging to hear that his rehab could soon begin in earnest. Colorado, meanwhile, will no doubt be excited to look forward to receiving a return on the team’s investment in Ottavino over the winter.
  • Southpaw Will Smith is expected to return to the Brewers by next week, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets. That’s great news for Milwaukee, which has been without the excellent 26-year-old reliever all year long. He’ll join Jeremy Jeffress at the back of the pen — and, perhaps, on the trade block.
  • Rangers backstop Robinson Chirinos will begin a rehab stint tomorrow with hopes of returning to the majors on June 9, as MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan was among those to tweet. Texas has been blessed with surprisingly productive starts from the catching position, but Chirinos had been expected to handle most of the duties before suffering a forearm fracture.

Injury Notes: Alvarez, d’Arnaud, E-Rod, Angels, Minor, DeSclafani, Morrow

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Athletics right-hander Henderson Alvarez underwent an MRI in his shoulder yesterday, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. The early belief is that Alvarez has a minor shoulder strain, which Slusser notes is not necessarily unusual in rehabs from this type of shoulder surgery, nor would it be considered a significant setback. Alvarez was said to be targeting a mid-May return to a big league mound, but the minor setback, at the very least, seems likely to push back that timeline.

Here are some more injury notes from around the game:

  • There’s no indication that Travis d’Arnaud is close to a return to the Mets, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. At this time, d’Arnaud isn’t even with the team but has traveled back to his L.A. home to work out his ailing shoulder with a personal trainer. The oft-injured 27-year-old has played in just 13 games for the Mets this season. In his absence, Kevin Plawecki will get his chance to prove that he can be considered an everyday option behind the dish.
  • Likewise, the Red Sox are facing significant uncertainty with southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, as John Tomase of WEEI.com reports. He’s still experiencing knee soreness, with diminished velocity seemingly resulting, and will miss his next scheduled rehab start. Hopes had been that the youngster would be back in the majors by this point, but instead he’ll throw a bullpen session later this week while the team assesses next steps. Boston is understandably proceeding with caution, lest the knee problem worsen or lead to some other injury. Rodriguez’s current rehab stint has been halted, giving the organization the option of re-starting another 30-day clock, though that step has yet to be taken.
  • The Angels’ bad luck in the injury department has shown no signs of abating, as the team has placed outfielder Daniel Nava and reliever Cory Rasmus on the 15-day DL. As Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes, both players are dealing with groin strains, though neither is expected to be out for much more than the minimum.
  • Royals lefty Mike Minor is headed to Triple-A and hopes to be ready for the majors by early June, according to Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star (Twitter link). The 28-year-old, who is Kansas City’s latest pitching injury reclamation project, had allowed three earned runs — on five hits and five walks, with a dozen punchouts — in 7 2/3 innings over two starts at Double-A.
  • There’s some cautious optimism on Reds righty Anthony DeSclafani, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes. He felt good in a 40-pitch pen session yesterday, and says that he believes his oblique issue may now be behind him. Next steps remain to be determined, and the club will be careful after a previous rehab effort resulted in a setback, but hopes are that DeSclafani can begin making his way back toward the major league rotation in earnest.
  • News was less positive on some recovering Padres, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell writes that righty Brandon Morrow and infielder Cory Spangenberg have both suffered setbacks. Morrow is experiencing fatigue in his surgically repaired shoulder, and it’s not clear when he’ll be able to resume throwing. That could result in player and team agreeing to push back his current June 1 opt-out date, per the report. Spangenberg, meanwhile, tweaked his injured left quad and will need to go back to the rest and strengthening regimen that he had hoped to be done with by this point.
  • Key Padres right-hander Tyson Ross is still not throwing, Cassavell adds, but he’s at least been cleared for full-blown strength work on his own injured shoulder. “You’ve basically got to lay a good foundation first, and that’s what we were doing,” Ross said. “It’s just kind of limited ranges, and making sure everything is strong and stable. And then progressing on up the chain from there. Things have been going great.”

NL West Notes: Ross, O’Brien, Miller, Giants

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While Padres ace Tyson Ross has moved onto the next phase of his rehab from shoulder inflammation and is doing stabilization exercises (with strengthening exercises around the corner), there’s still no timetable for his return, writes MLB.com’s A.J. Cassavell. Ross has yet to resume throwing, and manager Andy Green tells Cassavell that not only is there no timetable for a return to the Majors, there’s not even a timetable for when Ross will pick up a ball. Green somewhat vaguely says that Ross has reported feeling good, but the lack of definitive updates on his return continues to represent an ominous scenario for the Padres.

More from the NL West…

  • The D-backs’ lineup at the big league level is fairly crowded, especially when it comes to positions that could theoretically be manned by prospect Peter O’Brien, but manager Chip Hale said recently in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link), “If you can swing it as well as Peter has, we’ll find a place for him, if he continues to do this — force our hand.” O’Brien is indeed off to another monstrous start at the Triple-A level, hitting .340 with eight homers through his first 97 plate appearances. Of course, O’Brien has also drawn just one walk against 26 strikeouts, and the matter of where on the diamond he plays is an ongoing conundrum. Formerly a catching prospect, Arizona moved O’Brien from behind the plate early last year due to defensive questions (most notably, he developed a case of the yips even throwing the ball back to the pitcher). He’s seen time at first base and in the outfield corners, but the D-backs have Paul Goldschmidt at first base with David Peralta, Yasmany Tomas and Brandon Drury all serving as corner options. Defense and a lack of walks will continue to be a question for O’Brien, but he’s a .293/.333/.570 hitter with 34 homers in 154 Triple-A games, so the Snakes are understandably intrigued by his bat.
  • D-backs GM Stewart also appeared on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM this week with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette (audio link) to discuss Shelby Miller’s early struggles. Said Stewart: “Shelby Miller, I think, it’s more really just he’s feeling some pressure of the trade: the players that we traded for him, trying to fit in, I think the whole ordeal has just been different for him leaving St. Louis going to Atlanta. … I think he’s feeling some of the pressure of [Arizona’s expectations to win].” Stewart says he had a conversation with Miller explaining that “there is no pressure here, on him,” instead conveying that Miller need only go out and throw as he has in the past with the Cardinals and Braves. It’s somewhat of a tough sell, in my mind, to cite the players that surrendered for Miller as a source of pressure, considering he was recently flipped for Jason Heyward. And, coming up through a competitive Cardinals organization, expectations of winning aren’t a new phenomenon for Miller, either. The 25-year-old has struggled to an 8.49 ERA with as many walks (19) as strikeouts through 23 1/3 innings this year.
  • Early struggles from Matt Cain and Jake Peavy (who tied a career-worst by allowing four homers in his most recent start) have many Giants fans wondering about Tim Lincecum, but manager Bruce Bochy has continued to stand behind his struggling starters, writes Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News. Bochy reiterated on Wednesday what GM Bobby Evans said earlier in the week: the club has interest in Lincecum in a relief role — more specifically, a long relief role, per Bochy. Lincecum seems intent on attempting to break back into a rotation, though, making a reunion with the Giants difficult to envision. And, as Baggarly notes, Lincecum wouldn’t even be ready to join the rotation immediately, so he doesn’t represent a short-term fix for San Francisco’s ills. Moreover, it remains to be seen if Lincecum is even capable of performing as a quality big league starter on the heels of September hip surgery. While it wouldn’t take much to outperform Peavy (9.00 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 4.72 xFIP in 29 innings) or Cain (7.00 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 4.79 xFIP in 27 innings), I’d imagine that the Giants would want a more definitive upgrade were they to unseat one of their current starters with an external option.

Tyson Ross Won’t Require Surgery; Return Date Still Unknown

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APRIL 22: Padres manager Andy Green told reporters, including MLB.com’s A.J. Cassavell, that the MRI results reached him in the middle of last night’s game. Ross will not require surgery on the shoulder, but he still won’t throw for another couple of weeks. Ross will be re-evaluated in two weeks, per Green. While the fact that he’ll avoid surgery is obviously a positive for the Padres, that timeline seemingly suggests that Ross could be out until at least mid-May. One has to imagine that he’ll require a minor league rehab assignment before returning, so even in an ideal scenario it’d be fair to tack another week or two on top of the two week point of re-evaluation.

Green did note that the injury to Spangenberg appears to be mild in nature, adding that there’s “some optimism that at the end of 15 days, he could be back with us.”

APRIL 20: Padres right-hander Tyson Ross will undergo an MRI on his ailing right shoulder, per multiple reporters, including Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). Yesterday, Lin tweeted that Ross was beginning to play catch for the first time since being placed on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation on April 5.

While it’s not yet clear that Ross is facing a serious shoulder injury, he’s unquestionably facing a longer absence than he and the club had hoped when he originally hit the disabled list. Ross was initially optimistic that he’d be able to return after missing the minimum amount of time, but it’s already been 15 days since he was placed on the disabled list and a rehab assignment doesn’t appear to be in his immediate future.

The 28-year-old was San Diego’s best starter last season and has in fact quietly been one of the NL’s better starters across the past three seasons. Dating back to 2013, Ross has given the Padres 516 2/3 innings of 3.07 ERA ball, averaging 9.2 strikeouts and 3.5 walks per nine innings to go along with a 58.2 percent ground-ball rate. However, Ross also easily leads all Major League starters in slider usage over that three-year span; thirty-nine percent of Ross’ offerings from 2013-15 were sliders (via Fangraphs), and that’s a full four percent higher than Ervin Santana, who rated second on that list. Some in the past have questioned Ross’ delivery, as well, wondering about his ability to remain healthy.

Ross is earning $9.625MM this year after his second trip through the arbitration process this past winter. He reportedly drew significant trade interest both last summer and in the offseason, but the Padres elected not to move him, instead counting on him to help front the 2016 iteration of their starting rotation alongside James Shields and Andrew Cashner. While moving Ross this summer, when he would have a year and a half of club control left, seemed like a plausible fallback option, a significant injury would of course cast a shadow of doubt on that possibility.

Ross’ troubling news isn’t the only bit of bad luck for the Padres on the health front; the club placed infielder Cory Spangenberg on the disabled list today with a strained left quad. Spangenberg, a former first-round pick, has quietly delivered solid production for the Padres since his big league debut in 2014, batting a combined .269/.327/.402 (106 OPS+, 105 wRC+). The club added Jemile Weeks to its 40-man roster to take Spangenberg’s place.

Padres Notes: Ross, Trades, Fowler

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The Padres have placed righty Tyson Ross on the 15-day DL (retroactive to April 5) with right shoulder inflammation, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell tweets. Via the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Dennis Lin (on Twitter), Ross noticed his shoulder felt unusual during his first bullpen session after starting on Opening Day. Ross is optimistic he’ll return after missing the minimum amount of time. Clearly, the loss of Ross (who produced a 3.26 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 as one of the few bright spots in a rough Padres season in 2015) would be a blow to the Padres, particularly given that Ross is eligible for free agency after 2017 and could be traded at some point. Right now, however, there’s no indication the injury is serious. Manager Andy Green characterized the move as precautionary (tweet).

Here’s more from San Diego:

  • The Padres may have missed their window to cash in on most of their trade assets, Keith Law tells Buster Olney on the Baseball Tonight podcast (33:30 minute mark). While Law praised top prospect Manuel Margot for his solid tools and excellent baseball IQ, the rest of the farm system is rather bleak. Law believes Ross may be the only player on the major league roster who could fetch a franchise changing prospect. Derek Norris could return some value, but his shaky defense hurts his trade value. Similarly, other trade candidates aren’t likely to bring much in return. Of course, the podcast was recorded prior to Ross being placed on the disabled list. Law highlighted the long injury histories of Ross and Andrew Cashner which could come back to bite the Padres at any time.
  • Executive Ron Fowler has a difficult job on his hands convincing local fans that the front office has a plan, writes Bill Shaiken of the LA Times. After a disappointing 2015, the club seemingly went backwards over the winter with Justin Upton gone and Craig Kimbrel traded to Boston. The team appears to be feigning contention while planning a rebuild. This just one year after they spent a bushel of prospects and dollars in an attempt to compete in the NL West. Fowler admits the club was caught a little flat footed when the Dodgers started spending money like the Yankees on steroids. Their big spending rivals have the Friars looking for other ways to sneak into contention.

NL West Notes: D-Backs, Padres, Inciarte, Lincecum, Blash, Reyes

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Diamondbacks executives Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart tell Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that their winter wasn’t just about near-term contention. The club has also picked up some younger assets since the front office turned over, and was careful to protect its most prized younger assets — Jake Lamb, Brandon Drury, Archie Bradley — who La Russa deemed “too dear” to be dealt. That being said, there’s no question that the haul given up for Shelby Miller — along with other decisions to give up controllable talent to free up money and add other pieces — was about maximizing the club’s chances now, with several key players in their primes and Zack Greinke joining the fold. As Stewart puts it, “you trade the unknown for the known.”

  • Interestingly, Stewart added that the Padres had “big interest” in center fielder Ender Inciarte before he was shipped to Atlanta in the Miller deal. But San Diego wasn’t willing to deal away Tyson Ross or Andrew Cashner to get him, according to the D-Backs GM. That’s certainly a bit surprising to hear in regard to Cashner, who — despite his established ceiling — is coming off of an uninspiring 2015 season and is destined for free agency after the season.
  • The Padres have been “very active” in pursuing free agent righty Tim Lincecum, agent Rick Thurman said in an appearance on The Mighty 1090 (via Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Teams are waiting for the former Cy Young winner to put on a showcase, which Thurman now says will take place within the next two weeks. He explains that Lincecum preferred to work his way back to form on his own before signing, with the plan being to “build[] up his arm strength so that when he actually goes and does a showcase he’s going to be game-ready.”
  • Meanwhile, Lin has an interesting piece on Padres hopeful Jabari Blash, who says he’s come a long way since he was a laid back teenager in his native U.S. Virgin Islands. The towering 26-year-old is still raw, of course, which is why he was available in the Rule 5 draft. San Diego will give him every opportunity to make good on his talent and earn a spot this spring, writes Lin.
  • Commissioner Rob Manfred says that he’ll be prepared to move quickly on disciplining Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes once his legal proceedings are completed, Nick Groke of the Denver Post reports. Manfred explained that he doesn’t rush a decision, only to learn something new thereafter. “My expectation is, once that process plays out, we’ll be in position to act quickly,” he said. “We’ll have access to all the facts.”

Arbitration Breakdown: Tyson Ross

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Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Tyson Ross enters his third year of arbitration eligibility coming off a very strong performance but a weak win-loss record which, while not indicative of his actual talent and performance, still holds weight in the arbitration process. Ross finished below .500 with a 10-12 record, although he had a 3.26 ERA in 196 innings and struck out 212 hitters. The strong performance combined with his poor record have given our model some trouble this year, and I believe that the $4.75MM raise it projects him to get to reach $10MM for 2016 is probably too high. However, I do still think that Ross is due for a large raise.

Tyson Ross

One of the benefits of using a quantitative model to project arbitration salaries is that it enables us to get reasonably accurate estimates for players with atypical numbers. Few pitchers with ERAs as low as Ross have had losing records, and fewer still have been held to only 10 wins. However, the model still had some trouble with Ross this year. So, let’s examine a few pitchers that stand out as reasonable statistical comparables but got raises less than Ross’ projected $4.75MM.

Last year, Jeff Samardzija had a losing record of 7-13 despite a fantastic 2.99 ERA in 219 2/3 innings, ultimately resulting in a $4.46MM raise. Although he had 10 fewer strikeouts overall than Ross and obviously had three fewer victories, his ERA and innings were much better, and I suspect it would be tough to argue that Ross should get a raise $300K larger than the one awarded to Samardzija. If those three victories loom important, it’s conceivable that Ross will in fact hit his projection, but other players suggest more downside is possible.

Two other recent pitchers had exactly 10 wins in their third year of arbitration eligibility and also had about as many innings. In 2012, Matt Garza went 10-10 with a 3.32 ERA 197 strikeouts in 198 innings. He received a $3.55MM raise. Although Ross had two more losses, his case looks similar otherwise. More recently, David Price in 2014 had a 10-8 record with a 3.33 ERA in 186 2/3 innings, but he only struck out 151 hitters. Price had generally similar numbers to Garza but with fewer strikeouts, resulting in a raise of $3.89MM. Price’s similar numbers and larger raise suggest that a panel would agree that the market has shifted, making the Garza result stale. As a result, Ross could argue that Price’s $3.89MM raise a couple of years ago should be a floor, considering Ross’ similar ERA and innings total but vastly superior strikeouts numbers.

Digging further yet, Justin Masterson could also be a plausible ceiling. His 14-10 record clearly topped Ross’ 10-12 record, while his 3.45 ERA was similar to Ross’ 3.26. Masterson had 193 innings and 195 strikeouts, which are not that much less than Ross’ 196 and 212. As a result, the extra wins could suggest Masterson’s $4.07MM raise might be a ceiling for Ross.

Putting these together, it seems clear that the range of potential raises for Ross is probably around $3.9MM to $4.45MM, which would put him between $9.15MM and $9.7MM in 2016. While this is not appreciably less than his $10MM salary projection, it does appear that guessing low on this is the safer bet.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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