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NL Notes: Padres, Cubs, Mets

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Fernando Tatis Jr. made no two ways about it when discussing his future as a shortstop. “(A.J. Preller) signed a shortstop, and he’s gonna have a shortstop,” he said, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter). “That’s the plan so far, and I’m not planning on moving for a very long time from there.” Tatis moved to the outfield this season after being slowed by a repeated shoulder injury. The Padres are flush with infielders under team control for next season, including Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim, both of whom are capable of manning short. Regardless, Tatis Jr. sounds dedicated to reclaiming his natural position.

Elsewhere in the National League…

  • Willson Contreras gave an honest assessment of what he thinks the Cubs need heading into next season, while acknowledging that he thought he was going to be traded in this piece from The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. Despite being the “last man standing” in many respects, Contreras continue to say all the right things about wanting to stay and be a leader on the next generation of Cubs’ contender. They have some money to spend this offseason, but for the first time in awhile, many teams seem to, and there are only so many “foundational” pieces available in that market.
  • The Mets biggest decision this winter will be finding the right man to lead their front office. After a number of missteps, the Mets will look to some high profile names to come in and right the ship. Of the most noteworthy, Oakland’s Billy Beane may be the most realistic target, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). In the Mets favor is the fact that the Athletics are often looking to save money, and at this point in his storied career, Beane comes at a significant cost. Still, Beane has been the driving force behind a successful couple of decades of A’s baseball, and it’s hard to imagine him walking.

Cubs Activate Willson Contreras, Place Keegan Thompson On 10-Day Injured List

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The Cubs have activated Willson Contreras from the injured list, and in a corresponding move, they have placed Keegan Thompson on the 10-day IL with right shoulder inflammation, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter).

Contreras went on the injured list back on August 12 because of a right knee sprain. He’s the rare familiar face in the Cubs lineup, though he hasn’t been there of late. Austin Romine and Robinson Chirinos have handled the catching duties in his absence. On the year, Contreras has hit .226/.333/.417, good or a 105 wRC+, a solid mark from behind the plate.

Thompson was excellent for the Cubs in small samples out of the pen, but he has struggled while getting a few turns in the rotation. In total, the 26-year-old righty owns a 3.54 ERA/5.13 FIP across 48 1/3 innings with the big league club. Thompson’s spot in the rotation is due to come up again on Tuesday against the Reds.

NL Injury Notes: Moustakas, Lopez, Contreras

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Mike Moustakas left tonight’s game due to right hip tightness, replaced by Asdrubal Cabrera at third base to begin the bottom of the second inning.  Moustakas struck out in his lone plate appearance (in the top of the second) and Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer noted that Moustakas “hopped on his left leg a couple of times” following a game-opening single from Miguel Rojas.  This was one of four balls hit in Moustakas’ direction during what ended up as a five-run inning for the Marlins en route to their 6-1 win over the Reds.

The severity of the hip problem isn’t known, though the 2021 season has already been an injury-marred campaign for the veteran infielder.  Moustakas has played in only 45 games due to missing more than 11 weeks due to a right heel injury, which eventually necessitated a trip to the 60-day injured list.  The result is a .216/.309/.417 slash line and six home runs through 162 plate appearances, and a 92 wRC+ that would count as the Moose’s lowest since the 2014 season.  Cabrera was claimed off waivers just yesterday to help the Reds’ infield depth, though he could be in line for quite a bit more playing time if Moustakas’ hip issue results in another IL visit.

More injury updates from around the National League…

  • Pablo Lopez was scratched from a scheduled rehab start on Thursday and is now returning to Miami, Marlins manager Don Mattingly told reporters (including MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola).  A right rotator cuff strain sent Lopez to the injured list (retroactively) on July 14, yet even with just over a month remaining in the season, Mattingly didn’t commit to the idea of potentially shutting Lopez down.  “Nothing more than…just slowing him down, making sure we’re careful with him.  Sounded like a minor setback for sure,” Mattingly said.  “Probably not minor to Pablo, who’s wanting to get going.  But I know the medical staff’s going to be careful with him.”  Lopez has posted a 3.03 ERA/3.50 SIERA over 101 innings for Miami this season, with above-average strikeout (27.1%) and walk (6.1%) rates and strong hard-hit ball numbers.
  • Willson Contreras is expected to begin a minor league rehab assignment within a few days’ time, Cubs manager David Ross told The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and other reporters.  Contreras has been on the 10-day IL since August 12 due to a sprained right knee.  One of the few veterans still on the roster following the Cubs’ trade deadline fire sale, Contreras is enjoying another solid season, hitting .226/.333/.417 with 17 homers over 403 plate appearances.

Cubs Release Jake Arrieta, Designate Kyle Ryan For Assignment

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The Cubs have requested unconditional release waivers on right-hander Jake Arrieta, per a team announcement. That move comes amid a series of transactions, as Chicago has also placed catcher Willson Contreras on the 10-day injured list with a sprained knee, reinstated catcher Austin Romine from the 60-day injured list, selected the contract of right-hander Ryan Meisinger from Triple-A Iowa, and designated lefty Kyle Ryan for assignment.

It’s been a miserable season for Arrieta in his return to Chicago. The former Cy Young winner got out to a nice start, working to a 2.57 ERA through April 25, but he’s been tattooed for 58 runs in 58 1/3 innings since that time. Opponents have racked up 91 hits, including 19 home runs, during that stretch. Last night’s outing was particularly non-competitive; Arrieta yielded seven runs in the first inning and ultimately departed after four frames with eight Brewers runs on the board.

The Cubs signed Arrieta to a one-year, $6MM deal over the winter with the hope that the injury troubles which plagued him during his three years with the Phillies were behind him. He’s avoided any notable arm troubles, but Arrieta’s fastball is sitting at a career-low 90.8 mph on the year and he’s seen across-the-board declines in swinging-strike rate, chase rate, home-run rate and walk rate. This marks the sixth straight season that he’s seen his ERA increase from the prior season.

Arrieta is still owed the balance of that $6MM salary — about $1.71MM between now and season’s end. He’s a lock to clear release waivers and become a free agent, but any team that signs him thereafter would only owe him the prorated league minimum for the remainder of the year. That sum would then be subtracted from the balance owed to him by the Cubs.

As for Contreras, the knee troubles that are currently hobbling him are believed to be minor. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters this morning that the move was “precautionary” in nature (Twitter link via the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan). He’s seemingly not expected to require a lengthy stay on the injured list.

Romine, who has logged just six games and nine place appearances this season due to a left wrist sprain, will presumably pick up the bulk of the catching work in place of Contreras. The veteran 32-year-old was the Yankees’ backup catcher from 2016-19 before signing with the Tigers as a free agent for the 2020 season. He’ll now get the opportunity to team up with his brother, Andrew, for the first time in the big leagues. The Cubs inked Andrew to a minor league pact at the end of Spring Training and recently selected him to the Major League roster.

Meisinger, 27, has a 5.70 career ERA, albeit in a tiny sample of 23 2/3 innings between the Orioles and the division-rival Cardinals. He’s spent the 2021 season thus far with the Cubs’ top affiliate in Iowa, pitching to a 4.25 ERA with a huge 34.4 percent strikeout rate but also a concerning 12.2 percent walk rate (in addition to three hit batters).

The 29-year-old Ryan, meanwhile, has struggled to a 6.75 ERA in 13 1/3 innings this year. It’s the second straight season of struggles for Ryan, who posted similarly discouraging numbers in 15 2/3 frames with the 2020 Cubs.

That said, Ryan has been excellent in 25 innings of Triple-A ball this season, logging a 2.52 ERA with a 24-to-7 K/BB ratio. He’s also not terribly far removed from a 2019 season that saw him toss 61 frames of 3.54 ERA ball as one of the Cubs’ most heavily used relievers.

With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, Ryan will be placed on either outright or release waivers in the coming days and be made available to all 29 other clubs. He’s playing on an $800K salary, so he’ll cost a bit more than the league minimum, but Ryan has a bit of track record and can be optioned for the remainder of the season, so he’d be a solid enough depth pickup for a team in need of some southpaws in the bullpen.

Jed Hoyer Discusses Cubs’ Deadline Moves

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The Cubs were one of the busiest teams of deadline season, moving many of their veteran players in a series of trades that officially closed the curse-breaking era of Wrigleyville baseball.  However, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer feels the next window of contention will open sooner rather than later thanks to these deals, telling The Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro and other reporters that “we did everything we could today and over the last week to try to reset this organization and to try to make the best decisions possible.”

Citing the recent examples of the Phillies, Tigers, and Giants, Hoyer wanted to avoid a scenario that would’ve seen the Cubs perhaps wait too long to make that “reset,” as Hoyer said those other clubs “basically ran to the end of the cliff and they fell off and they had to rebuild.”  While Hoyer said that the organization was “willing to go to that point if this was a winning team this year,” the team’s 11-game losing streak from June 25 to July 6 essentially ended the Cubs’ chances of competing in the NL Central, especially since the Brewers got hot and broke out to a big lead.

Rather than seeing impending free agents like Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, or Anthony Rizzo all potentially leave for nothing this winter, the decision was made to move them at the deadline.  “We were able to, in my mind, speed that process up dramatically because we’re able to acquire a lot of young talent, some on the major-league team, some that’ll be in the minors,” Hoyer said.

Of course, there was no shortage of “real emotion” that went into trading some of the iconic Cubs figures of recent years, and Hoyer didn’t rule out pursuing reunions with any of these now-former stars in free agency this winter.  As Montemurro notes, however, such re-signings are perhaps a little unlikely, given how the Cubs had extension talks with several of their top players dating back to 2020, yet couldn’t come to terms on a long-term deal.

There don’t appear to be any hard feelings on at least Baez’s side, as the newly-minted Mets infielder told Russell Dorsey of The Chicago Sun-Times that “I think the communication here has been really good between the players in the [Cubs’] front office.  They talked to us straight up told us what the chances were.  We understand the business side.  It happens.  Hopefully happens for the best for the organization.”

Catcher Willson Contreras (controlled through the 2022 season) is one of the few notable stars remaining on the roster, and it stands to reason that the Cubs might explore trading Contreras this winter, after discussing some potential deals with teams last offseason.  For Contreras’ part, however, he would “love to stay here….This is the only team I’ve played for, and if they want to rebuild around me, I’m happy to talk.”

Cubs’ Recent Losing Streak Changes Trade Deadline Outlook

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A couple weeks ago, the Cubs had positioned themselves as likely buyers during trade season. As recently as June 24, Chicago was tied with the Brewers atop the NL Central, nine games over .500. The past two weeks have been an unmitigated disaster for the North Siders, though.

Between June 25 and July 7, the Cubs lost eleven consecutive games. They snapped that streak with a win over the Phillies last night, but Chicago enters tonight’s matchup against Philadelphia with an uninspiring 43-44 record. The Brewers, meanwhile, have rattled off a 10-3 stretch over that time, opening up an 8.5 game lead on Chicago within a 14-day span. (The 45-41 Reds have also since passed the Cubs to jump into second place in the division). Chicago isn’t a whole lot closer in the Wild Card race, trailing the Padres by seven games (with Cincinnati and the Nationals also above them in the standings).

An eleven game losing streak can certainly tank a team’s season, and it seems it might’ve in the Cubs’ case. On June 24, FanGraphs gave Chicago a 35.7% chance of making the playoffs; entering play today, their odds were down to 6.4%.

With a playoff berth all of a sudden seeming highly unlikely, the calculus for the Cubs front office changes considerably, a fact that president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer acknowledged this evening. Speaking with reporters (including Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune and Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago), Hoyer sounded far more willing to move players off the big league roster than he’d been a couple weeks ago.

“Eleven days ago, we were certainly fully on the buying side … and obviously (teams) are now calling to see which players are available,” Hoyer said. “So it’s a very different scenario than we’d expected. Life comes at you fast.” Asked whether the front office is willing to make players available, Hoyer noted their responsibility to consider anything “that can help build the next great Cubs team,” citing their aforementioned dwindling playoff odds.

The implications for the Cubs are obvious. Three of their highest-profile players — Kris Bryant, Javier Báez and Anthony Rizzo — are all slated to hit free agency at the end of the season. If the team isn’t contending in 2021, it stands to reason any or all of them could find themselves on the move over the next few weeks.

Certainly, there’d be plenty of interest in every member of that group. Bryant has bounced back from a disappointing 2020 to hit a very strong .269/.349/.498 with sixteen home runs over 324 plate appearances this year. He’s making far more consistent hard contact and barreling balls up at a rate he hasn’t since his MVP peak. Bryant’s production has tailed off after he got out to a scorching start to the year, but his combination of excellent season-long numbers and overall track record would make him perhaps the top player on the trade market were the Cubs to make him available.

Rizzo’s .250/.343/.439 line is down rather significantly from his best seasons. It’s still above-average offensive production, though, and he continues to offer a rare combination of bat-to-ball skills and hard contact (to say nothing of quality defensive marks at first base). Báez has struck out at an alarming 36.6% clip this year en route to a .234 batting average and a .282 on-base percentage. But he’s also popped 21 home runs and slugged .496, and he’s a comfortably above-average defender and baserunner.

Between their career accolades, key roles on the 2016 World Series team, and impending free agencies, that trio figures to draw the most fanfare in advance of the July 30 trade deadline. They’re far from the only players on whose availability other teams might inquire, though. Zach Davies, Joc Pederson and Jake Marisnick are useful players set to reach free agency this winter. (Marisnick has a mutual option for 2022, but mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties).

Willson Contreras, controllable via arbitration through 2022, is one of the game’s best catchers and was the subject of trade discussion last offseason. Closer Craig Kimbrel is having an incredible bounceback campaign, pitching to a 0.57 ERA with a 46.2% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk percentage after struggling mightily between 2019-20. Kimbrel’s $16MM salary for 2021 now looks more than reasonable, as does the matching option on his contract for 2022.

Certainly, it’d be a surprise to see all of those players change teams in the next few weeks. Hoyer pushed back against the idea the Cubs were planning to kick off any sort of full-on rebuild, even as he acknowledged that the 2022 roster will look different from the current iteration. He also noted there’s still some possibility — slim as it now seems — the team plays its way back into contention over the coming weeks.

The Cubs have eighteen more games before the deadline. After facing the Phils tonight, their slate through July 29 consists of seven games against the Cardinals, six against the lowly Diamondbacks, and four against the Reds, one of the teams they’ll need to leapfrog for a postseason spot.

Winning thirteen or fourteen of those contests might get the Cubs sufficiently close to the postseason picture that the front office decides not to orchestrate a sell-off. The core of the current club has been pivotal to arguably the franchise’s most successful five-year run in over a century. It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hoyer and his front office give the group as long a leash as possible this summer to try to play their way back into the mix.

Nevertheless, the most likely scenario is that the club’s dreadful past two weeks dug them a hole too deep to come back from. That’s an inescapable reality Hoyer acknowledged this afternoon, one that may result in a few of the franchise’s most important players of recent memory donning new uniforms in a few weeks’ time.

Injury Notes: Harper, Higgins, Hoerner, Topa

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Phillies star right fielder Bryce Harper was hit in the left leg by a Jacob deGrom change-up during a bunt attempt today. He ran the bases, but Travis Jankowski replaced him in the field for the bottom half of the inning. The ball skipped off the ground before hitting Harper’s leg, so it’s likely to be a short layoff for Harper. That said, nothing is certain at this point, including Harper’s availability for Sunday, writes Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia.

While we await an update on Harper, let’s circle up and check-in elsewhere around the Senior Circuit…

  • Cubs backup catcher P.J. Higgins has been diagnosed with a partially torn UCL that will require Tommy John surgery, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). Luckily for the Cubs, starter Willson Contreras was back in the lineup today after getting hit by a pitch on the hand yesterday, Montemurro adds. Higgins collected his first Major League hit this season but went just 1-for-23 at the plate in nine games. [UPDATE: Higgins is actually getting right forearm flexor tendon surgery, Montemurro was among those to report, not a Tommy John procedure.]
  • Nico Hoerner will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A tomorrow, writes Tim Stebbins of NBC Sports Chicago. He strained his hamstring on May 25th after beginning to establish himself as a galvanizing presence on both sides of the ball. With slick glovework at the keystone, Hoerner is one of the Cubs’ better defenders, and he brought his hot bat from spring training into the regular season, batting .338/.405/.432 in 84 trips. Hoerner projects to return to the big-league club sometime in early July.
  • The Brewers don’t have an exact timeline for the return of reliever Justin Topa, but manager Craig Counsell sounds optimistic in saying, “He’s not crazy far from game action,” per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (via Twitter). Topa injured his elbow during spring training and has yet to make his season debut. He made six quality appearances as a 29-year-old rookie for the Brewers in 2020, pitching to a 2.35 ERA in 7 2/3 innings.

Marlins Notes: Benintendi, Berti, Contreras, Anderson, Sanchez

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Adam Duvall, whom the Marlins signed to a one-year, $5MM deal on February 9, has slotted in as Miami’s primary right fielder this season. Evidently, the front office also discussed the possibility of filling that position via a trade for then-Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi. In early February (presumably before signing Duvall), the Marlins discussed a potential three-team deal, also involving Boston and the Padres, that would’ve sent Benintendi to Miami, report Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Utilityman Jon Berti would have gone to San Diego had that deal been finalized, per Jackson and Mish, but the Marlins eventually backed out of the arrangement. Benintendi, whom the Red Sox wound up trading to the Royals instead, has hit a solid .284/.342/.412 in Kansas City. Duvall, on the other hand, is off to a poor .207/.254/.410 start. Given those respective performances, it’s easy to conclude in retrospect the Marlins should’ve pushed harder for Benintendi, although it’s impossible to malign the front office without knowing precisely who else the club would’ve had to part with to push those talks over the finish line.

More out of Miami:

  • Jackson and Mish also shed some light on another set of Marlins offseason trade discussions: their previously-reported pursuit of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras. Any deal sending Contreras to Miami likely would’ve sent Jorge Alfaro the other way, with prospects Peyton Burdick and Zach McCambley among the other players who might’ve gone to Chicago. Ultimately, the Cubs held onto Contreras, who has a .245/.341/.435 line for the current NL Central leaders.
  • Turning to players who are on the roster, Jackson and Mish report that injured third baseman Brian Anderson looks likely to avoid surgery. Placed on the injured list late last month because of a left shoulder subluxation, Anderson has progressed to taking on range of motion drills and could return before the end of June. One of Miami’s best players between 2018-20, Anderson has come out of the gates a little slower in 2021, hitting .250/.316/.371 over his first 136 plate appearances.
  • Miami has been without prized righty Sixto Sánchez all season on account of shoulder problems. Sánchez’s throwing program was shut down last week after he suffered a setback, although general manager Kim Ng tells reporters (including Mish) that issue was unrelated to Sánchez’s initial inflammation. Rather, the flamethrowing 22-year-old is now suffering from bursitis. It’s still not clear when the Marlins can expect Sánchez back, a disappointing development after he began his MLB career with 39 innings of 3.46 ERA/4.18 SIERA ball in 2020.

Injury Notes: Contreras, Springer, Dozier

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The Cubs’ 2-1 victory over the Cardinals last night came with some pain for Willson Contreras, as the backstop was hit in the wrist while trying to catch a pitch from Craig Kimbrel in the 10th inning.  Contreras remained in the game after being checked out by trainers, though Cubs manager David Ross told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian) that he initially was worried that Contreras had broken his wrist.

While it seems like the worst has been avoided, Contreras could quite possibly sit out Chicago’s next game (on Tuesday against the Pirates) for precautionary reasons, and an injured-list trip probably shouldn’t be ruled out given the vagaries of wrist injuries.  This would create a vacuum behind the plate for the Cubs, as normal backup Austin Romine is on the 60-day IL due to a sprained wrist.  Rookie P.J. Higgins is current acting as Contreras’ backup, and veterans Tony Wolters and Jose Lobaton are at Triple-A but not on the 40-man roster — Wolters was only just outrighted off the 40-man on Saturday.

More on other injury situations from around baseball..

  • There isn’t much new on George Springer’s status, as Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo told reporters (including Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith) that Springer is “improving” but there isn’t yet any sense of when the outfielder might begin a rehab assignment or be ready to rejoin the lineup.  Springer is, however, accompanying the Jays on their upcoming road trip.  Due to an oblique strain and a pair of quad strains, Springer has played in only four games for Toronto this season.
  • The Royals moved Hunter Dozier from the seven-day concussion IL to the regular 10-day IL, which could be a hint that he is nearing a return to the lineup.  Dozier went to the seven-day IL on May 14 after a collision with Jose Abreu on the basepaths, so he has already been absent for the minimum 10 days and could be activated as early as tomorrow, when the Royals begin a series against the Rays.  Dozier has already played in two Triple-A rehab games.  Over 124 plate appearances this season, Dozier has yet to get going, as he has hit only .139/.202/.339 with five homers.

Hoyer: No Current Extension Talks With Cubs’ Core Players

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The core of the Cubs’ 2016 World Series club is nearing the end of its tenure in Chicago, and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said Thursday that there are no current extension talks with any members of that core (Twitter link via 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine). Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez are all slated to become free agents at season’s end, while catcher Willson Contreras hits the market following the 2022 season.

For much of the offseason, talk around Bryant was focused on whether he’d even make it to Opening Day. The fact that former Rookie of the Year and NL MVP had a dismal 2020 season likely helped keep him in Chicago, as last summer’s struggles paired with a hefty arbitration raise to sap much of his trade value.

A quarter of the way through the 2021 season, the pendulum has swung in the other direction. While the entire league seems to be plagued with anemic offensive performances, Bryant is better than ever. Through his first 167 trips to the plate, he’s raking at a .301/.401/.615 pace with 10 homers, 14 doubles and a pair of stolen bases. He’s even doing so while splitting his time between third base and all three outfield positions, showing off plenty of defensive versatility.

Rizzo is also in the midst of a resurgent campaign, having increased his average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage over last year’s levels. He’s still not back to peak form, but a .250/.361/.443 slash is solid — particularly in the aforementioned era of strikeouts and near-weekly no-hitters. Rizzo is a rarity in 2021, having walked at a higher clip (14.8 percent) than he’s struck out (12.4 percent). The Cubs reportedly offered him an extension in the vicinity of five years and $70MM back in Spring Training, which checks in at about $60MM shy of the $130MM commitment the division-rival Cardinals made to Paul Goldschmidt. That deal began in Goldschmidt’s age-32 season — the same age at which Rizzo will play in 2022.

Baez, meanwhile, is enjoying a more productive season than he did in 2020, albeit with plenty of red flags. He’s raised his slash line across the board but is now striking out at a 37.2 percent clip that represents the highest non-rookie mark of his career. Even though he’s raised his average 60 points over its 2020 level, Baez’s OBP is still resting just shy of .300. He’s batting .263/.299/.526 on the whole, which is certainly sound production, but he’s needed career-highs in BABIP (.351) and homer-to-flyball ratio (32.3 percent) in order to get there. If either of those two marks regresses or his strikeouts continue to tick up, Baez’s 2.7 percent walk rate will become all the more glaring.

Contreras, the only one of the group controlled beyond the current season, is hitting .254/.349/.462, continuing a lengthy run as one of the game’s best-hitting backstops. That he’s controlled into 2022 puts a bit less of a spotlight on him, but there were some trade rumblings surrounding Contreras over the winter.

At 21-21, the Cubs needn’t yet entertain the idea of any sort of broad-reaching fire sale. They’re still just 3.5 games back of the Cardinals in the NL Central and very much in the mix as of mid-May. Should they wilt in the coming months, any of the impending free agents would make for a plausible trade candidate. There would of course be PR implications to consider with dealing from that group, but an unavoidable reality; even if the Cubs hold onto everyone through season’s end, they’ll eventually have to bid adieu to at least one, if not two or all three of Bryant, Rizzo and Baez in free agency. For now, the hope is likely that the group puts together a big showing over the next two months, positioning the Cubs as division favorites and deadline buyers.

The more interesting scenario to consider, though, will be what the Cubs will do if they’re still in precisely this spot come mid-July. A Cubs team hovering at .500, give or take a couple games, would have to weigh two sides of a difficult dilemma. Make one final run with an offensive core that really hasn’t gotten it done in October since that World Series victory, or sell off some of the most iconic players in recent franchise history? The former route could leave the Cubs with little to show in terms of compensation for a core that won’t stay intact. The latter route would be tantamount to waving a white flag while still in striking distance of a postseason bid while turning the page on a historic era of Cubs baseball.

Hoyer, it should be noted, did make clear that the Cubs maintain an “open-door” policy and aren’t ruling out future negotiations. But Rizzo said earlier this year that he’d made his peace with the lack of an extension, while Bryant has never seemed all that likely to sign before free agency. They’ve talked with Baez for the past two to three seasons without a deal ever coming together. Generally speaking, the expectation of a deal for any of the bunch coming together before free agency (save for perhaps Contreras this offseason) should be low.

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