Injury Notes: Contreras, Springer, Dozier
The Cubs‘ 2-1 victory over the Cardinals last night came with some pain for Willson Contreras, as the backstop was hit in the wrist while trying to catch a pitch from Craig Kimbrel in the 10th inning. Contreras remained in the game after being checked out by trainers, though Cubs manager David Ross told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian) that he initially was worried that Contreras had broken his wrist.
While it seems like the worst has been avoided, Contreras could quite possibly sit out Chicago’s next game (on Tuesday against the Pirates) for precautionary reasons, and an injured-list trip probably shouldn’t be ruled out given the vagaries of wrist injuries. This would create a vacuum behind the plate for the Cubs, as normal backup Austin Romine is on the 60-day IL due to a sprained wrist. Rookie P.J. Higgins is current acting as Contreras’ backup, and veterans Tony Wolters and Jose Lobaton are at Triple-A but not on the 40-man roster — Wolters was only just outrighted off the 40-man on Saturday.
More on other injury situations from around baseball..
- There isn’t much new on George Springer‘s status, as Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo told reporters (including Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith) that Springer is “improving” but there isn’t yet any sense of when the outfielder might begin a rehab assignment or be ready to rejoin the lineup. Springer is, however, accompanying the Jays on their upcoming road trip. Due to an oblique strain and a pair of quad strains, Springer has played in only four games for Toronto this season.
- The Royals moved Hunter Dozier from the seven-day concussion IL to the regular 10-day IL, which could be a hint that he is nearing a return to the lineup. Dozier went to the seven-day IL on May 14 after a collision with Jose Abreu on the basepaths, so he has already been absent for the minimum 10 days and could be activated as early as tomorrow, when the Royals begin a series against the Rays. Dozier has already played in two Triple-A rehab games. Over 124 plate appearances this season, Dozier has yet to get going, as he has hit only .139/.202/.339 with five homers.
Hoyer: No Current Extension Talks With Cubs’ Core Players
The core of the Cubs’ 2016 World Series club is nearing the end of its tenure in Chicago, and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said Thursday that there are no current extension talks with any members of that core (Twitter link via 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine). Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez are all slated to become free agents at season’s end, while catcher Willson Contreras hits the market following the 2022 season.
For much of the offseason, talk around Bryant was focused on whether he’d even make it to Opening Day. The fact that former Rookie of the Year and NL MVP had a dismal 2020 season likely helped keep him in Chicago, as last summer’s struggles paired with a hefty arbitration raise to sap much of his trade value.
A quarter of the way through the 2021 season, the pendulum has swung in the other direction. While the entire league seems to be plagued with anemic offensive performances, Bryant is better than ever. Through his first 167 trips to the plate, he’s raking at a .301/.401/.615 pace with 10 homers, 14 doubles and a pair of stolen bases. He’s even doing so while splitting his time between third base and all three outfield positions, showing off plenty of defensive versatility.
Rizzo is also in the midst of a resurgent campaign, having increased his average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage over last year’s levels. He’s still not back to peak form, but a .250/.361/.443 slash is solid — particularly in the aforementioned era of strikeouts and near-weekly no-hitters. Rizzo is a rarity in 2021, having walked at a higher clip (14.8 percent) than he’s struck out (12.4 percent). The Cubs reportedly offered him an extension in the vicinity of five years and $70MM back in Spring Training, which checks in at about $60MM shy of the $130MM commitment the division-rival Cardinals made to Paul Goldschmidt. That deal began in Goldschmidt’s age-32 season — the same age at which Rizzo will play in 2022.
Baez, meanwhile, is enjoying a more productive season than he did in 2020, albeit with plenty of red flags. He’s raised his slash line across the board but is now striking out at a 37.2 percent clip that represents the highest non-rookie mark of his career. Even though he’s raised his average 60 points over its 2020 level, Baez’s OBP is still resting just shy of .300. He’s batting .263/.299/.526 on the whole, which is certainly sound production, but he’s needed career-highs in BABIP (.351) and homer-to-flyball ratio (32.3 percent) in order to get there. If either of those two marks regresses or his strikeouts continue to tick up, Baez’s 2.7 percent walk rate will become all the more glaring.
Contreras, the only one of the group controlled beyond the current season, is hitting .254/.349/.462, continuing a lengthy run as one of the game’s best-hitting backstops. That he’s controlled into 2022 puts a bit less of a spotlight on him, but there were some trade rumblings surrounding Contreras over the winter.
At 21-21, the Cubs needn’t yet entertain the idea of any sort of broad-reaching fire sale. They’re still just 3.5 games back of the Cardinals in the NL Central and very much in the mix as of mid-May. Should they wilt in the coming months, any of the impending free agents would make for a plausible trade candidate. There would of course be PR implications to consider with dealing from that group, but an unavoidable reality; even if the Cubs hold onto everyone through season’s end, they’ll eventually have to bid adieu to at least one, if not two or all three of Bryant, Rizzo and Baez in free agency. For now, the hope is likely that the group puts together a big showing over the next two months, positioning the Cubs as division favorites and deadline buyers.
The more interesting scenario to consider, though, will be what the Cubs will do if they’re still in precisely this spot come mid-July. A Cubs team hovering at .500, give or take a couple games, would have to weigh two sides of a difficult dilemma. Make one final run with an offensive core that really hasn’t gotten it done in October since that World Series victory, or sell off some of the most iconic players in recent franchise history? The former route could leave the Cubs with little to show in terms of compensation for a core that won’t stay intact. The latter route would be tantamount to waving a white flag while still in striking distance of a postseason bid while turning the page on a historic era of Cubs baseball.
Hoyer, it should be noted, did make clear that the Cubs maintain an “open-door” policy and aren’t ruling out future negotiations. But Rizzo said earlier this year that he’d made his peace with the lack of an extension, while Bryant has never seemed all that likely to sign before free agency. They’ve talked with Baez for the past two to three seasons without a deal ever coming together. Generally speaking, the expectation of a deal for any of the bunch coming together before free agency (save for perhaps Contreras this offseason) should be low.
NL Central Notes: Hayes, Akiyama, Contreras, Hicks
Rookie third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes will soon compete in alternate site games, and he should thereafter return to the Pirates‘ roster, per Kevin Gorman of Triblive.com. Hayes jammed his wrist in the second game of the season. The Pirates have surprisingly held their heads above water in his absence; A win in extras yesterday put their record to 7-9 on the young season. Hayes apparently left some rookie magic behind at the hot corner, as 28-year-old Phillip Evans has slashed .275/.373/.490 in 59 plate appearances as Hayes’ stand-in. Evans has already made 2021 the most prolific campaign of his career, a strong argument to keep a roster spot even after Hayes returns.
Let’s hang out in the NL Central this morning…
- Reds outfielder Shogo Akiyama is working on running drills, per C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic (via Twitter). Manager David Bell wants to see Akiyama in game action at the team’s alternate site this weekend. Even with Aristides Aquino on the injured list, the Reds have no shortage of outfielders thanks to the surprising play of Tyler Naquin. Still, if Akiyami can return as he finished last season, he’s undoubtedly an asset. Akiyama posted a 135 wRC+ in September and October of last season while slashing .317/.456/.365 and providing capable defense at all three spots in the outfield.
- Whether or not the Cubs are headed towards a rebuild, it’s a good time to work on extending catcher Willson Contreras, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports. Contreras continues to be one of the more dynamic catchers in the game, both in terms of his personality and his play on the field. The Cubs long-time backstop is off to a hot start at the plate, slashing .273/.400/.614 with five home runs through 55 plate appearances. Contreras will be a free agent after 2022, heading into his age-30 season. Appealing as it may be to keep Contreras in Chicago, extensions for positions players have not been part of the Cubs’ current operating procedure.
- Jordan Hicks is on the Cardinals roster and pitching valuable innings, but he’s also still completing his ramp-up process as he returns from a 22-month layoff, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Hicks has tossed seven innings over six appearances, giving up just one earned run on two hits while walking six and striking out seven. More importantly, his stuff has looked as electric as ever, averaging 99.2 mph on his sinking fastball.
NL Central Notes: Contreras, Mikolas, Brewers
Willson Contreras “wasn’t bothered at all” by trade speculation during the offseason, and if anything, the catcher was flattered by other teams’ interest. “The rumors didn’t bother me,” Contreras told The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and other reporters. “It’s the other way — those rumors make me proud because of where I come from, everything that I’ve done to be where I’m at….I went through it relaxed because if I got traded, I know that I’m ready to play anywhere and everywhere.”
Like fellow Cubs teammates Javier Baez and Kris Bryant have stated in recent days, Contreras would welcome any extension talks with the team, saying “obviously, I’m willing to listen to whatever they have.” Baez and Bryant are entering their final season before free agency while Contreras is under team control through 2022, so Chicago may not quite have as much urgency to explore a longer-term deal with the catcher just yet, though it would be surprising if the Cubs didn’t at least broach the subject with Contreras and his representatives this spring. Contreras said that he is “just not thinking about” contract talks for now, as “my main focus is on this year.”
More from the NL Central…
- Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas “will be pushed back just a little bit” from his first outing of the spring, manager Mike Shildt told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Mikolas was scheduled to pitch during a simulated game on Monday, after throwing some live batting practice to teammates last week. “For now it’s caution,” Shildt said, and a team official told Goold that there is “very low” concern about Mikolas for the time being, yet any sort of setback has to considered notable considering that Mikolas missed the entire 2020 season. The right-hander ultimately decided to undergo surgery last August to fix a damaged right flexor tendon, after getting PRP injections both after the 2019 season and in February 2020, and then trying to work through the injury during both the shutdown and in Summer Camp. The Cards were already planning to bring Mikolas along rather slowly in order to build up his readiness for the start of the season, and it remains to be seen if this latest issue could delay his recovery plan.
- Injuries and a positive COVID-19 test prevented Luis Urias from getting any preseason time at shortstop last year, so the Brewers will give the youngster plenty of looks at the position during Spring Training. The larger question, as The Athletic’s Will Sammon examines, is whether or not this will result in Urias becoming the Brew Crew’s regular shortstop once the season actually begins. Milwaukee has built a lot of flexibility into the left side of its infield, as Urias, Orlando Arcia, and Daniel Robertson can all play either shortstop or third base, while Travis Shaw is also an option at the hot corner. Shaw can play first base as well, and Arcia also said that he is preparing to work out as a center fielder. Arcia made a single appearance in center field (the first of professional career) last season, playing four innings at the position on August 12 in a 12-2 loss to the Twins.
Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Bryant, Contreras, Davies
The Cubs have avoided arbitration with third baseman Kris Bryant, catcher Willson Contreras and right-hander Zach Davies, per reports from Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago and Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com. Bryant settled for $19.5MM, while Contreras will make $6.65MM and Davies will earn $8.63MM.
While the salaries of Bryant and Contreras for 2021 are now known, it’s unclear whether either will actually rake in that money as members of the Cubs. They have been stalwarts for the club throughout their careers, but with the Cubs in retooling mode this winter, both players have frequented trade rumors. Of course, this doesn’t look like the optimal time to move Bryant, a former NL MVP who put up uncharacteristically bad numbers in 2020. The Boras Corporation client only has a year of control left, though, so the Cubs may try to get what they can for him before the season starts.
The Cubs would have much less difficulty landing solid value for Contreras, who continued his run as a top-tier catcher last season. Not only is he a bargain relative to his production, but Contreras has another year of arbitration eligibility remaining.
The 27-year-old Davies is new to the Cubs, having joined them as part of their return from the Padres last month for righty Yu Darvish. Davies, who enjoyed a career year in 2020, will be eligible for free agency next offseason.
Marlins Interested In Willson Contreras
The Marlins have had discussions with the Cubs about catcher Willson Contreras, according to SportsGrid’s Craig Mish (Twitter link). There isn’t any sense that a trade might be close, as Mish describes the situation as “very fluid” considering how “the Cubs have big decisions to make across the board” (namely, trade talks involving several of their veteran players).
As you might expect, Contreras has been a key figure in these talks, as the Angels and multiple other teams have inquired about the backstop’s services. It stands to reason that pretty much any team with a need behind the plate has at least checked in on Contreras, and Miami’s interest hints that even teams who seemed to have a catching option in place are interested in Contreras as an upgrade.
2020 was a tough season for Jorge Alfaro, acquired as part of the J.T. Realmuto trade package in February 2019 and immediately tabbed as Miami’s next catcher of the future. After hitting decently well in 2019, Alfaro’s numbers took a significant step backwards in the shortened 2020 season, to the point that the Marlins turned to Chad Wallach as their regular catcher in the playoffs so the club could at least get some defensive stability out of the position.
The Marlins also recently signed Sandy Leon to a minor league deal and re-signed Brian Navarreto for further depth, indicating some desire on Miami’s part to address its catching mix. Acquiring Contreras would obviously be a much more seismic move, and it seems possible that Alfaro could be part of a hypothetical trade package heading to Chicago. Catcher Miguel Amaya is one of the Cubs’ top prospects but has yet to play above high-A ball, so Alfaro wouldn’t necessarily be blocking Amaya’s progress. Alfaro is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and is controlled through the 2023 season.
Contreras, meanwhile, has two arbitration seasons left and is projected to earn between $5MM-$7.4MM for the 2021 season. It’s a very reasonable price for one of the sport’s better overall catchers, a two-time All-Star who continued to post solid (.243/.356/.407 in 225 PA) hitting and framing numbers last season. Landing such a productive player on short-term control would be a fit for any team, but particularly a Marlins organization that is starting to stretch its payroll a bit as the Fish have become competitive. After acquiring Starling Marte at the trade deadline and exercising his $12.5MM option for 2021, Miami has yet to swing any major moves this winter, mostly focusing on lower-level bullpen additions.
Angels Interested In Willson Contreras
The Angels are making a bid to reunite manager Joe Maddon with his World Series winning backstop in Chicago Willson Contreras, writes the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. No deal is imminent, but the match is certain to raise a few eyebrows because of the potential fit between the two clubs. Given the recent return for ace Yu Darvish, the Cubbies would seem interested in restocking a thin farm system (though it’s possible they consider that box now checked). The Angels, conversely, have a clear need for some gravitas behind the plate and an earnest desire to win now.
For Los Angeles, Max Stassi may miss the beginning of the season, and neither he nor Anthony Bemboom are established regulars. They made a run at James McCann earlier this offseason before he signed with the Mets. Contreras would be a huge upgrade as an elite offensive catcher who has continued to find his way defensively. He earned 2 runs from extra strikes in 2020 while averaging the second fastest poptime among all catchers. His arm also profiles as above-average, if a tad error-prone in the past. Contreras caught 35% of would-be base-stealers in 2020, well above the league average of 25%.
With two years of team control remaining, the two-time All-Star catcher may be the Cubs’ best available trade chip, however, which could slow any trade talks as they look to milk the most out of any return. He’s a firestarter, fan favorite, and a leader of the team. Besides, having sent Victor Caratini to San Diego as part of the Darvish deal, moving Contreras would also leave them imperiled at the catching spot. The organization likely views Miguel Amaya as a future starting catcher, but he’s not likely to open 2021 with the Major League team. Likewise, Ethan Hearn and Ronnier Quintero are interesting prospects, but neither has played about Rookie Ball. Contreras and the 21-year-old Amaya are the only catchers currently on the Cubs 40-man roster.
Hoyer: Finances “Not The Focus” Of Darvish Trade
Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer spoke with reporters on a Zoom call this morning, discussing a slew of topics in the wake of yesterday’s trade of Yu Darvish and Victor Caratini to the Padres. Notably, Hoyer claimed early in the process that the financial component of the trade was not the primary focus (Twitter link via Patrick Mooney of The Athletic):
We always have an eye on the finances of every deal. In 2020, obviously, some of those things are magnified. But that was not the focus. The focus of this deal was to try to move a player in the second half of his contract and acquire a lot of young talent.
It’s tough to sell that finances weren’t the focus of the deal, given that the Cubs cleared more than $50MM in salary (over the next three years) and didn’t receive any of the Padres’ top 10 farmhands. Three of the four minor leaguers acquired in the trade have yet to play their first professional game, thanks to the lack of a minor league season in 2020.
Nevertheless, Hoyer expressed confidence that the Cubs will have a competitive roster in 2021, although he simultaneously indicated that the organization won’t be a major player in free agency despite the money saved from the Darvish trade (Twitter links via Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports and Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune).’
Hoyer also called a report suggesting that the Cubs were shopping Willson Contreras “fictional,” though he acknowledged he has received trade interest in his catcher and would not label him untouchable. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers tweets that in spite of Hoyer’s denial, the Cubs have indeed discussed Contreras with other clubs “a lot” in the “recent past.” The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma added that the denial does not mean Contreras won’t be moved, though there haven’t been “substantive” talks in the past week or two.
The messaging throughout the call seems rather mixed. Hoyer has asserted that finances did not drive the trade, which most in the industry view as a salary dump. Free agency, meanwhile, will become a priority again only when the roster “has the bones” of a contender, which inherently implies that the current roster has something less than that (due, in no small part, to the Darvish trade itself). Yet the company line is that this team will compete in 2021, and the very notion of shopping Contreras was framed as ridiculous.
Also puzzling was Hoyer’s characterization of the Darvish return. While it’s standard to see an executive express excitement over the young talent acquired in exchange for a star player, as he did today, the newly minted Cubs president also suggested that this was the best package he could coax from the Padres (Twitter link via Rogers). Hoyer noted that San Diego counterpart A.J. Preller has steadfastly held onto MacKenzie Gore and most of his organization’s best prospects throughout a frenzy of trade activity dating back to August.
However, the very mention of taking the best return out there seems to imply that there was indeed pressure from ownership to make a deal. Taking the best deal available is only the course of action charted when taking no deal at all isn’t an option. Beyond that, if finances truly weren’t the main focus, one would assume the prospect return have been heightened by the Cubs offering to pay down more than the reported $3MM they’re sending to the Padres to cover Darvish’s remaining $62MM in guarantees.
It’s an unenviable spot for Hoyer or any executive to have to talk around a trade of this nature, but this morning’s press conference still felt more disconnected than it needed to be. At the end of the day, the Cubs’ message is that trade was not intended as a salary dump; that the team will still be competitive in 2021 without any notable free-agent additions to a roster that may not have the “bones” of a contender (and also just lost a Cy Young runner-up); and that initiating additional trades of established players (e.g. Contreras) is far-fetched.
The goal may have been to push back on the notion of a full-scale teardown, but the resulting depiction is something of a rudderless ship. Does this team view itself as a contender for 2021? If so — and if not for financial reasons — why trade its best pitcher while eschewing free-agent additions with the associated cost savings? If not, then why push back so strongly on trading Contreras?
The good news for the Cubs and their fans is that no one else in the National League Central seems to want to try to separate themselves from the pack. Given the inactivity throughout the division, the Cubs could still find themselves among the Central’s more competitive teams by default. Still, whether it happens this winter or next offseason — when each of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant are slated to reach free agency — it’s clear that substantial change is on the horizon for the Cubs.
Hoyer Denies Report Of Cubs Shopping Contreras
Dec. 30: In a conference call to discuss the Darvish/Caratini trade, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer called any reports of the team shopping Contreras “fictional” (Twitter link via Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago). Hoyer, who stressed that the Darvish trade was “not financially motivated,” declined to label any player on his team untouchable and acknowledged that he has received repeated trade inquiries on Contreras, however.
Dec. 29: The Cubs made a couple of significant subtractions from their roster Monday when they agreed to trade right-handed ace Yu Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini to the Padres. Those two may not be the last noteworthy players the Cubs part with in a trade this winter, though, as they’re “extensively shopping” catcher Willson Contreras, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
The 28-year-old Contreras has been one of the preeminent backstops in the game since he debuted in 2016, so you would think the two-time All-Star would bring back a sizable return for the Cubs. Offensively, Contreras owns a lifetime .265/.351/.463 line (good for a 116 wRC+) and has hit 74 home runs in 1,889 plate appearances. As a defender, Contreras struggled with pitch framing earlier in his career, but he ranked in the league’s 85th percentile in that category last season, according to Statcast. He has also thrown out an above-average 32 percent of would-be base thieves in Chicago.
Adding to Contreras’ appeal in a potential trade, he has another two years of arbitration eligibility remaining. He’s projected to earn between $5MM and $7.4MM next season, but even the higher of those estimates should be intriguing to teams looking for a new starting catcher. That’s especially true when considering J.T. Realmuto, the No. 1 free-agent catcher available, figures to rake in a guarantee well north of $100MM on what’s likely to be a contract of at least five years. Speculatively, the Phillies, Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Yankees, Nationals and archrival Cardinals could be among the teams that at least kick the tires on a Contreras acquisition.
The Cubs don’t seem to have an immediate replacement for Contreras, who teamed with Caratini to form one of the majors’ most effective duos at catcher. Promising prospect Miguel Amaya is the only other backstop on their 40-man roster, though he hasn’t played above High-A ball yet. Of course, Chicago could get back a different catcher in a trade (be it as part of a Contreras swap or another deal) and/or add someone in free agency to help bridge the gap to Amaya.
Padres, Cubs Nearing Yu Darvish Trade
8:32pm: Padres outfielder Ismael Mena and shortstop Yeison Santana are other names in discussion, Mayo reports.
8:20pm: Davies and “several prospects,” including 2020 second-round outfielder Owen Caissie, will be going to the Cubs, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports. Shortstop Reginald Preciado will also head to Chicago, per Acee, who adds that the trade features “two other prospects.” The Cubs won’t get any of the Padres’ top five prospects, according to Nightengale.
7:10pm: Caratini will be part of the trade once it occurs, but Campusano won’t, Nightengale tweets.
6:58pm: The clubs are close to a deal and appear as if they’ll finalize it tonight, per Nightengale.
4:32pm: The trade looks to be close, Heyman tweets. Caratini would “likely” join Darvish in San Diego, though the Cubs want “some MLB experience” as part of their return.
3:04pm: The two teams are nearing agreement “on the multiple pieces” of a Darvish trade, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Pads “have accepted the haul they will have to send to the Cubs,” Acee writes.
2:50pm: Top catching prospect Luis Campusano is among the names that has been discussed, Nightengale reports. His inclusion in the deal would give the Cubs a replacement should they send a catcher to the Padres. Campusano would join Miguel Amaya as a potential long-term option at the position with Contreras up for free agency in two years (if he’s not traded in this or another deal first).
2:03pm: There’s “growing optimism” that the two sides will complete a deal, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, adding that an agreement could come together as soon as today.
12:28pm: The Padres are focused on more than Darvish alone, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link). Both suggest that the talks between the Cubs and Padres could be expanded to include one of Willson Contreras or Victor Caratini.
The Padres’ catching corps has turned over considerably over the past year, with Francisco Mejia now with in Tampa Bay, Austin Hedges in Cleveland and Luis Torrens in Seattle. The Friars have Austin Nola atop their catching depth chart, with touted prospect Luis Campusano behind him, but the latter is still lacking in MLB experience. Either Chicago catcher would bolster the group, and Contreras would likely push Nola into a super-utility role similar to the one in which he thrived with the Mariners.
11:56am: Despite last night’s agreement to acquire Blake Snell from the Rays, the Cubs are also “deep” in talks on a trade that would send Yu Darvish from Chicago to San Diego, according to Dennis Lin, Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (Twitter link). R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports first indicated that the Padres were still in the mix for Darvish even after landing Snell. Importantly, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that San Diego is not on Darvish’s 12-team no-trade list, so the deal can be made without requiring Darvish’s approval.
If completed, the Darvish trade could be the next step in another dizzying flurry of headline-grabbing transactions from general manager A.J. Preller. In addition to Snell and the potential Darvish deal, the Padres are also reported to be the favorites to sign KBO superstar Ha-Seong Kim. If all three moves come to fruition, this sequence would hearken back to Preller’s inaugural offseason, wherein Matt Kemp dubbed him the “Rock Star” GM — and back to this summer’s frenzied series of trade deadline acquisitions. Few front offices around the game act as boldly and decisively as the Padres when a course is set, and the Snell acquisition clearly looks to have set some dominos in motion.
It’s at least possible there’s a connection between today’s pair of Friars rumors; the Cubs surely want controllable young talent, and a player like Jake Cronenworth would certainly be of interest to them in a Darvish deal. That’s speculative on my part, to be clear, but it’s not hard to see how those pieces could fit into place. Alternatively, if the Padres were to send an outfielder with a notable salary back to Chicago to help offset Darvish’s contract (e.g. Tommy Pham, Wil Myers), Cronenworth could move into the outfield if needed.
Darvish, 34, is still owed $62MM over the next three seasons as part of the six-year, $126MM he initially signed with the Cubs prior to the 2018 season. The first year of that massive contract could scarcely have gone worse, as Darvish was limited to just 40 innings due to a series of injuries that culminated in arthroscopic elbow surgery.
At that point, few would’ve imagined Darvish resurfacing as both a front-line starter and a highly sought-after trade commodity, but that’s exactly what’s happened. Darvish finished second in National League Cy Young voting in 2020, thanks to a brilliant 2.01 ERA and 93-to-13 K/BB ratio through 76 innings. However, his renaissance extends further back than that.
Dating back to Memorial Day 2019, Darvish has made 32 starts and totaled 199 2/3 innings of 2.84 ERA/3.04 FIP ball with averages of 11.5 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine frames. At less than $21MM a year, this version of Darvish looks like a relative bargain, though buying his age-34, age-35 and age-36 seasons obviously still carries risk. Darvish is also a favorite of Preller — a former Rangers assistant GM who played an integral part in scouting and signing Darvish during his time with Texas.
The very notion of a rotation featuring some combination of Snell, Darvish, Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, Zach Davies and MacKenzie Gore is a dream scenario for Padres fans — the type of starting staff that would give the Friars a group to go toe-to-toe with the perennial division winners up in Los Angeles. Few teams in the game could boast such a deep and talented group of starting pitchers, and while Davies is a free agent next winter, the Padres will get Mike Clevinger back from Tommy John surgery for the 2022 season. A 2022 group of Snell, Darvish, Lamet, Clevinger, Paddack and Gore has the potential to be utterly overwhelming.
For the Cubs, trading away some combination of Darvish, Contreras and Caratini would be a painful first step in at least some degree of a rebuilding effort. While the Cubs probably won’t tear the roster down to the studs, there’s also some inevitable change on the horizon. Cornerstone pieces like Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez are all free agents next winter. Kyle Schwarber would’ve joined that group but has already been non-tendered. Contreras is only controlled through 2022.
Improbable as it would have seemed a few years back, Darvish now stands out as one of president Jed Hoyer’s most desirable trade targets to dangle for other teams, joining Contreras and Kyle Hendricks in that regard. Trading Darvish (and Contreras or Caratini) would give the Cubs an avenue to clear salary and acquire controllable talent for the team’s next core.
However this plays out, it seems likely that more moves will be on the horizon for the Padres and Cubs alike. The Cubs could either jump into free agency to add a Darvish replacement at a lower cost, or they could continue to shop veteran stars like Bryant and Hendricks. And for the Padres, Preller’s history suggests that more moves are likely to follow even if Darvish, Kim and one of Contreras/Caratini all land in San Diego. The Padres could still use some help in the bullpen, for instance, and they’ll likely send some MLB talent to Chicago in order to push the Darvish deal across the line. It’s going to be a busy week in San Diego.