A Quietly Built, Quietly Strong Bullpen
The 2019 Twins captured the baseball world’s attention with their historic home run output, and most of the other talk surrounding the team focused on questions within the rotation. The Twins won the AL Central with ease but were yet again bounced by the Yankees in a familiarly lopsided series. Entering the offseason on a low note and with four starting pitchers reaching free agency, the focus was again on the rotation. Yet somewhere along the way, the Twins quietly put together one of the most formidable collections of relievers in the game.
Following last year’s All-Star break, Twins relievers ranked ninth in the Majors in ERA (4.03) but led MLB in FIP (3.56), xFIP (3.87), SIERA (3.53) K-BB% (20.7%) and walk rate (5.9%). The Twins, long known for their reliance on soft-tossing, “pitch to contact” arms, saw their bullpen post the fifth-best overall strikeout percentage (26.6%). They tied for fourth in swinging-strike percentage (13.1%) and ranked fifth in opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone (33.9%).
A half season’s worth of bullpen data is obviously not a definitive declaration of their status as elite, but the post-All-Star-break qualifier is of some note with regard to the Twins in particular. Minnesota opened the season with a host of reclamation projects and cast-offs in the relief corps. From Opening Day through the Midsummer Classic, the Twins saw Mike Morin, Blake Parker, Matt Magill, Ryne Harper, Adalberto Mejia and Trevor Hildenberger all make at least 13 appearances and total 14 or more innings. Harper, to his credit, was a legitimate contributor — although fielding-independent metrics forecast some regression, and his production faded in the second half.
The rest of that largely nondescript group was more or less out of the picture in the second half. Mejia, Morin, Magill and Parker were designated for assignment in a span of two weeks in mid-July. Mejia was claimed by the Angels, Morin was traded to the Phillies for cash, Parker also signed in Philadelphia after electing free agency, and Magill was traded to Seattle for cash. Harper’s role was reduced as his results regressed, and Hildenberger only tossed 2 1/3 innings as September call-up before being non-tendered in the winter. (Harper was designated for assignment and traded to the Nats in February.)
What was left of the Twins’ bullpen proved to be a remarkably effective unit.
Taylor Rogers cemented himself as the club’s closer after the addition of a new slider spurred a 2018 breakout. He threw his first slider in 2018 on Memorial Day, and dating back to that game, Rogers owns a 2.07 ERA (2.52 FIP, 2.77 xFIP) with 11.4 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9 and a 48.7 percent ground-ball rate in 117 1/3 innings.
Tyler Duffey showed promise as a starter in his debut season with Minnesota but had bounced between the Majors and minors since. Duffey has acknowledged that at first, he wasn’t fully comfortable or familiar with much of the new data that was presented to him by the Twins’ analytics department, but he fully bought in this year and ditched his two-seamer and changeup to go with a four-seam and curveball-heavy arsenal. The result? A 2.50 ERA (3.06 FIP, 2.94 xFIP) with a career-high 12.8 K/9 and a whopping 15.3 percent swinging strike rate. In the second half of the season, Duffey posted a 1.53 ERA with a 47-to-8 K/BB ratio.
Another former starter, Trevor May, has steadily improved his relief work since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2018. The 30-year-old free-agent-to-be rattled off 64 1/3 innings of 2.94 ERA ball in 2019, including a 2.81 ERA (3.81 FIP, 3.67 xFIP) in 32 second-half innings. May saw his strikeout percentage spike from 25.5% in the first half to a hefty 35% in the second half, and his walk rate made similarly positive gains (11.9% in the first half; 7.3% in the second).
The Twins’ late-July acquisition of veteran Sergio Romo wasn’t the biggest headline grabber of deadline season, but the three-time World Series champ pitched 22 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball (3.35 FIP, 3.91 xFIP) with a pristine 27-to-4 K/BB ratio. The two-plus months Romo spent in the organization clearly made a favorable impression, as he returned on a one-year, $5MM deal with a club option for the 2021 season.
But the most anonymous parts of the bullpen’s success were rookie right-handers Zack Littell and Cody Stashak.
Littell, a 24-year-old rookie, was summoned for depth in mid-May and took a long-relief beating during a blowout in order to save the ‘pen (eight runs in four innings). Optioned to Triple-A the next day, Littell returned about a month later and proceeded to reel off 30 2/3 innings of 0.88 ERA ball with a 27-to-8 K/BB ratio. The only runs scored against him came on a trio of solo homers. Obviously, Littell isn’t going to make it through a season with a 100% strand rate, but that dominant finish to the year likely cemented his spot in the ‘pen.
As for Stashak, he was never regarded as a prospect of particular note even within the Twins’ system, but he logged a 3.13 ERA with a 23-to-1 K/BB ratio in 23 innings in his MLB debut. Stashak is an extreme fly-ball pitcher who doesn’t throw especially hard or generate great spin on his heater or four-seamer … yet he posted an eye-popping 28.7% swinging-strike rate on his slider last year. There’s likely some regression coming for both Littell and Stashak, but both positioned themselves as near-term pieces even if they do take a step back.
At this point, outside of Rogers, the closer, it’s perhaps become apparent that this is a group of all right-handers. As such, targeting lefty relievers seemed like a logical course of action this winter. And the Twins did indeed go out and get the reliever who was the second-toughest pitcher on lefties in all of baseball last year (min. 30 innings): Tyler Clippard — another righty.
Clippard joined the Twins on a modest $2.75MM guarantee for the 2020 season, and while he doesn’t throw with his left hand (obviously), his dominant changeup makes him an excellent weapon against southpaw swingers all the same. Lefties posted a laughable .123/.210/.255 batting line against Clippard in 2019. That translated to a .207 wOBA, tying Roberto Osuna and trailing only Oliver Drake (another former Twin — oops) for best in the big leagues. That wasn’t necessarily a one-year aberration, either, as Clippard has better career numbers against lefties (.187/.266/.322) than righties (.207/.295/.387).
If the Twins want to add a true lefty to the mix, they can always move Devin Smeltzer and/or hard-throwing Lewis Thorpe into that role, although the plan for them appeared to be to continue working as starters early this spring. Perhaps expanded rosters will bring that pair and others into play; righties Randy Dobnak, Jorge Alcala and Sean Poppen all made their big league debuts last year, with Dobnak in particular impressing as a starter. Waiver claim Matt Wisler is another depth option with an intriguing Statcast profile. Among non-roster players, southpaw Danny Coulombe punched out 61 hitters in 36 1/3 Triple-A frames last year and had looked impressive with the Twins this spring. Jhoulys Chacin could give some long relief innings and provide rotation depth.
The Twins’ bullpen may be lacking a bit in name value, but among the 366 pitchers who faced at least 200 hitters last year, the Twins placed five in the top 70 in terms of xwOBA: Rogers (20), Duffey (22), Clippard (31), Romo (43) and May (tied for 70th). And none of their second half success was attributable to their biggest deadline pickup — righty Sam Dyson, who now famously kept a shoulder injury to himself prior to being traded and required surgery after just 11 1/3 ugly innings.
When a team jettisons about half its bullpen in a two-week span in July and sees its primary deadline acquisition bust, most would expect rough waters ahead. Instead, the Twins quietly enjoyed some of the best relief work of any club in last year’s second half and look well positioned for the future. Both May and Clippard will be free agents this coming winter, but there’s plenty of room to re-sign either and several depth in-house depth options to step up into those spots should they land elsewhere.
Twins Select Cody Stashak, Place C.J. Cron On IL
The Twins have selected the contract of righty Cody Stashak and recalled fellow reliever Lewis Thorpe, per a club announcement. They’ll take the active roster places of first baseman C.J. Cron, who’s headed to the injured list with a thumb malady, and righty Zack Littell, who was optioned down.
Stashak, 25, earned his way to the big leagues with a strikeout laden showing in the upper minors to open the year. He has been particularly impressive since moving up to Triple-A, turning in 22 1/3 frames of 1.61 ERA ball with a sterling 31:4 K/BB ratio. While he has functioned primarily as a reliever in recent seasons, Stashak did get two starts at Rochester and has been tasked with multi-inning work at times.
It’s not promising to see Cron headed back to the IL so soon after his reinstatement. It seems his thumb troubles have reared up again, meaning the team will go without a hitter who has turned in 350 plate appearances of ..263/.320/.494 work at the plate this season. The Twins will go with a three-man bench for at least a stretch.
Twins Designate Austin Adams, Recall Zack Littell
The Twins announced today that they have designated right-hander Austin Adams for assignment. His roster spot will go to fellow righty Zack Littell, who was recalled.
Adams, 32, only got into a pair of games for the Twins. Unfortunately, he was knocked around yesterday. Beyond the difficult outing, the fact that Adams threw 43 pitches likely sealed his fate.
The 23-year-old Littell makes his way up for the first time this year after getting a few looks in 2018. He carries a 4.19 ERA with 9.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 43 Triple-A innings.
Players Added To The 40-Man Roster
As detailed earlier this morning at MLBTR, the deadline for Major League clubs to add players to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from next month’s Rule 5 Draft is tonight. Because of that, there will be literally dozens of moves between now and 8pm ET as teams make final determinations on who to protect and who to risk losing in next month’s Rule 5 draft. This process will lead to smaller-scale trades, waiver claims and DFAs, but for some clubs the only necessary moves will simply be to select the contracts of the prospects they wish to place on the 40-man roster. We’ll track those such moves in this post…
- Heading onto the Blue Jays‘ roster, per a club announcement, are righty Connor Greene, lefty Tom Pannone, first baseman Rowdy Tellez, and catchers Dan Jansen and Reese McGuire.
- The Rays have selected the contracts of righties Brent Honeywell, Diego Castillo, Yonny Chirinos, and Jose Mujica, lefty Ryan Yarbrough, first baseman/outfielder Jake Bauers, and outfielder Justin Williams, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
- The Diamondbacks placed lefty Jared Miller on the MLB roster, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports on Twitter.
- A list of six players is heading onto the Reds‘ 40-man, per Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter): infielders Alex Blandino and Shed Long, outfielder Jose Siri, and righties Jose Lopez, Jesus Reyes, and Zack Weiss.
- The Padres and Brewers have joined the teams announcing their additions. For San Diego, lefties Jose Castillo and Brad Wieck are heading to the 40-man. Milwaukee has selected shortstop Mauricio Dubon, catcher Jacob Nottingham, and righties Marcos Diplan and Freddy Peralta.
- The Marlins and Yankees just struck a trade relating to their 40-man maneuvering, and each announced their selections shortly thereafter. Miami is placing outfielder Braxton Lee on the MLB roster along with righties Merandy Gonzalez, Pablo Lopez, and James Needy. New York, meanwhile, will select righties Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo, and Jonathan Loaisiga to the 40-man along with outfielder Billy McKinney and infielders Thairo Estrada and (last but not least) Gleyber Torres.
Click to check in on other teams that have selected players to their 40-man rosters …
Yankees Acquire Jaime Garcia
The Yankees and Twins have agreed to a trade that will send left-hander Jaime Garcia from Minnesota to New York in exchange for Double-A right-hander Zack Littell and Triple-A lefty Dietrich Enns, the Yankees announced on Sunday.
The 31-year-old Garcia will bring some stability to the Yankees rotation, having logged a 4.29 ERA with 6.9 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 and a 55 percent ground-ball rate between Atlanta and Minnesota this season. He’s worked six or more innings in 15 of his 19 starts this year, which is especially encouraging for a Yankees team that features a deep bullpen — particularly following the trade that netted them both David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle from the White Sox.
Garcia is a free agent at season’s end, making him a pure rental. However, the Yankees reportedly plan to continue their talks with the A’s regarding a longer-term rotation piece, Sonny Gray, even after completing the Garcia trade. Whether those talks come to fruition remains to be seen, but Garcia alone is a nice step up for a Yankees rotation that recently lost Michael Pineda to Tommy John surgery. The veteran Garcia, who comes with a solid postseason track record and a World Series ring (2011 Cardinals) will join Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka and Jordan Montgomery in the starting five.
Garcia’s stint with the Twins lasted less than a week. Minnesota’s declining play and lengthy winning streaks for the Royals and Indians have created a seven-game gap for the Twins in the American League Central, which is steep enough for the front office to sell off some short-term assets. The Twins, though, agreed to pay the remainder of Garcia’s $12MM salary when acquiring him from the Braves in exchange for right-hander Huascar Ynoa, and they’ll reportedly pay that figure down to the pro-rated league minimum for the Yankees.
Minnesota will remain on the hook for about $4MM in this trade, which effectively amounts to buying a pair of prospects that the Twins clearly feel to be superior to the player they initially surrendered to acquire Garcia. Littell ranks 22nd among Yankees prospects on MLB.com’s midseason top 30 list. (By comparison, Ynoa ranked 22nd in a weaker Twins farm system.)
Littell, 21, was the Mariners’ 11th-round pick back in the 2013 draft and landed in the Yankees organization as part of last November’s James Pazos trade. After a strong 2016 campaign split between two Class-A levels, he’s taken another step forward in 2017. In a combined 115 1/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A, he’s worked to a 1.87 ERA with 8.5 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 52 percent ground-ball rate. MLB.com’s Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo write that Littell has three average or better offerings with above-average control.
The 26-year-old Enns isn’t considered to be one of the Yankees’ best prospects, but he has an excellent track record of results in his minor league career. The Central Michigan University product has never posted an ERA higher than 2.94 in a full season, and he’s worked to a 1.99 ERA with 9.3 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9 in 45 1/3 innings between Triple-A and a Rookie-level injury rehab start this year. Enns is on the 40-man roster, though he was just added this past offseason, so he has two more option years remaining beyond the 2017 campaign.
Yahoo’s Jeff Passan first broke news that the two sides were moving toward a deal. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi first mentioned that Littell could be involved in the deal. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that talks were at the “1-yard lins.” FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweeted that there was an agreement. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that Enns was also in the deal (Twitter link). Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand added details on the financial component (Twitter links).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Twins, Yankees Moving Toward Jaime Garcia Trade
7:10am: Talks between the Twins and Yankees are “at the 1-yard line,” tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. The Yankees will continue to talk to the A’s about acquiring Gray as well even after the Garcia trade is finalized.
12:53am: Yankees Double-A pitching prospect Zack Littell is part of the talks, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network. The Yankees scratched the righty from his start Saturday. MLB.com ranks Littell as New York’s 22nd-best prospect.
12:39am: The Yankees and Twins are “deep into discussions” on a trade that would send left-hander Jaime Garcia to New York, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (on Twitter). Acquiring Garcia would not take the Yankees out of the running for Athletics right-hander Sonny Gray, according to Passan. Reports on Saturday tabbed the Yankees as the favorites to land Gray.
As is the case with Gray, the Yankees have come up in Garcia rumors throughout July. Garcia has already changed teams once this month, having gone from the Braves to the Twins this past Monday in a deal that netted Atlanta unheralded pitching prospect Huascar Ynoa. While the upstart Twins were buyers at the outset of the week, they’ve done a 180 thanks to a 1-5 skid since Monday that has dropped them to 50-52 – seven games out in an American League Central division they once led and four back in the wild-card race.
The 31-year-old Garcia has made just one start with the Twins, a 6 2/3-inning, three-earned run effort in which he struck out seven and walked three in a win over the A’s on Friday. Garcia, an impending free agent who’s owed around $4.5MM through year’s end, has been effective all season, having logged a 4.29 ERA (4.04 FIP), 6.29 K/9, 3.31 BB/9 and a 55 percent ground-ball rate over 119 2/3 innings. He’d upgrade the back end of a Yankees rotation that has most recently relied on Caleb Smith, who has combined to throw seven subpar frames in two starts dating back to last Sunday, and join Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery to comprise their starting staff.
Acquiring Gray on top of Garcia would create an extremely interesting conundrum for the Yankees, as it would give the team six capable starters and more than make up for the loss of Michael Pineda to Tommy John surgery. The least proven member of the group would be Montgomery, though the rookie has pitched at least as well as Garcia this year. It’s worth noting, however, that Montgomery has never thrown more than 139 1/3 innings in a season and has already amassed 108 this year. In an effort to tamp down his workload, then, perhaps he’d be a candidate to shift to a relief role. Jon Heyman of FanRag noted Saturday (on Twitter) that the Yankees “wouldn’t mind” picking up another southpaw for their bullpen, and the lefty Montgomery has limited same-sided hitters to a horrid .177/.236/.392 line this season.
Regardless of how the Yankees’ rotation aligns going forward, it’s apparent that general manager Brian Cashman believes the club is a legitimate World Series contender. Cashman made a bold strike earlier this month in picking up two standout relievers – Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson – as well as third baseman Todd Frazier in a trade with the White Sox, and New York has awoken from an early summer slumber since then to regain first place in the American League East. Winners of six straight, the Yankees own a 56-46 record and a half-game advantage over the Red Sox in the division. The Yankees also boast the AL’s second-best run differential (plus-117), which suggests their record should be even better than it is.
East News & Rumors: Hellickson, Kim, Yanks, Rays
Right-hander Jeremy Hellickson changed clubs when the Phillies traded him to the Orioles on Friday, but a car crash has delayed his arrival to meet his new teammates, reports Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com (on Twitter). Hellickson was rear-ended on his way to the airport to fly to Texas, where the Orioles are playing, and he and his girlfriend had to go to the emergency room as a result. Fortunately, it seems the two avoided major injuries. “I think Jeremy is OK, but his girlfriend had to go to the emergency room,” manager Buck Showalter said Saturday (via Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com). “I know Roger (McDowell) has talked to him a couple of times. If everything stays…if she gets cleared, they’ll be in Baltimore tomorrow. No reason to come here (to Texas) now. We’ve got a catcher set up tomorrow in Baltimore.”
The Phillies received little-used outfielder Hyun Soo Kim in the package for Hellickson, and the 29-year-old’s playing time won’t increase with his new team, writes Matt Breen of Philly.com. “I don’t know how much time I’ll be able to get for Kim,” admitted manager Pete Mackanin. “It’s a conundrum.” With Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams flanking center fielder Odubel Herrera, the Phillies have younger options entrenched in starting roles. That’s unfortunate for Kim, who hit .302/.382/.420 in 346 plate appearances as a rookie last year. The free agent-to-be took massive steps backward this season before the trade (.232/.305/.288 in 142 tries), and he won’t have an opportunity to improve his stock in the next couple months. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams suggested Friday, including Kim and his $4.2MM salary in the trade was a money-driven decision by the teams.
The latest on a couple of Baltimore’s AL East rivals:
- The Yankees made Double-A right-hander Zack Littell a healthy scratch from his start on Saturday, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Sherman believes the move has something to do with Monday’s trade deadline, and it’s worth noting that the Yankees and A’s are deep in talks regarding Oakland right-hander Sonny Gray. Speculatively, Littell could end up in the package going to Oakland if the Yankees acquire Gray (or as part of another deal). MLB.com ranks the 21-year-old Littell as New York’s 22nd-best prospect.
- More from Sherman, who writes that the Yankees may trade hot-hitting Triple-A outfield prospects Billy McKinney and Jake Cave by the end of August as a way to alleviate the 40-man roster crunch they’re slated to face in the offseason. Neither player is on the Yankees’ 40-man right now, and the team is already well off in the outfield. In lieu of protecting the McKinney-Cave tandem over the winter, then, the Yankees could do what they did with outfielder Ben Gamel last year and deal one or both of them. Gamel wasn’t on the 40-man for New York when it traded him to the Mariners last Aug. 31 for a pair of pitching prospects. While Gamel’s now enjoying an excellent rookie season in Seattle, odds are that he wouldn’t have gotten the chance to shine as a major leaguer this year had he stayed in the Yankees organization.
- In regards to the low-payroll Rays’ trading spree this season, owner Stuart Sternberg told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times: “The impetus? This is a special group of guys who have the talent and are hungry.” Sternberg has picked up $7MM in salary via trades this year – though Colby Rasmus‘ departure did save the team $2.5MM, as Topkin points out – and is looking to make more additions to the Rays’ playoff-contending roster. “The money and the talent we no longer have hurts, and makes us a bit weaker in the future,” continued Sternberg. “In a perfect world there will be more to do to improve the club. It’s hard to see how that presents itself, though I have confidence (we) will explore any and every opportunity.”