Rangers To Sign Kohei Arihara
TODAY: MLB Insider Jon Heyman provided some clarification as to the financial specifics today (via Twitter). As presumed yesterday, the posting fee will amount to $1.24MM, while the Rangers will pay out $6.2MM over the course of the two-year contract. Arihara will make $2.6MM in 2021 and $3.6MM in 2022, adds MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter).
Dec. 25: The Rangers are in agreement with right-hander Kohei Arihara, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). It’s a two-year contract in the $6-7MM range, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter).
Arihara, 28, has spent the past six seasons with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of Nippon Professional Baseball. In 836 career innings at Japan’s highest level, Arihara compiled a 3.74 ERA with 6.7 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He has been especially productive over the past two years. Arihara posted a minuscule 2.46 ERA with a career-best 8.8 K/9 in 2019. This past season, he managed a 3.46 mark with 7.2 K/9 across 132.2 innings.
Writing for Baseball America on the heels of Arihara’s peak season in 2019, Jason Coskrey noted that the right-hander works in the low-90’s and primarily leans upon his fastball, changeup and slider. Arihara has up to seven distinct pitches in his arsenal, though, and Coskrey notes he’s adept at using his secondaries to keep opposing hitters off balance. He also has a long history of throwing strikes, not having issued more than 2.2 walks per nine innings pitched in any of his last five NPB seasons.
Arihara’s not known for especially overpowering raw stuff, and that’s been borne out in his relatively low strikeout rates. Shun Yamaguchi, who signed a similar contract with the Blue Jays last offseason, consistently posted heftier strikeout totals over his time in Japan than did Arihara. So too has Tomoyuki Sugano, the higher-profile NPB starter available to MLB teams via the posting system this winter. That could suggest Arihara’s more suited for the back of the rotation, although he figures to have a decent opportunity for innings in Texas.
Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles will presumably try to bounce back from dismal 2020 seasons. Dane Dunning will certainly get a rotation job after coming over from the White Sox in the Lance Lynn trade. There’s a lot of uncertainty beyond (and even among) that trio, though. Kolby Allard was knocked around last season and hasn’t yet established himself as a big league caliber starter. Kyle Cody, who never worked more than five innings, was the only other player still on the roster to start multiple games for Texas last season.
In addition to Arihara’s salary, the Rangers will owe the Fighters a release fee under the terms of the MLB-NPB posting system. The Fighters will receive a sum equal to 20 percent of the contract value. Depending upon the contract’s specific terms, that would put the posting fee in the $1.2MM – 1.4MM range. Texas’ total outlay is around $7.5MM, hears Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter).
The Red Sox and Padres were reportedly the other finalists in the bidding for Arihara, whose posting window was set to expire tomorrow. San Diego and Boston will now have to turn elsewhere in their hunt for additional rotation depth.
Report: Padres, Rangers, Red Sox Are Finalists For Kohei Arihara
The 30-day posting window for right-hander Kohei Arihara is set to close on December 26, and Arihara is apparently set to choose between three MLB teams. According to reports out of Japan, the Padres, Rangers, and Red Sox are the finalists for Arihara’s services.
San Diego was the only team known to have interest in Arihara, though it isn’t any surprise that pitching-needy teams like Texas and Boston are also looking into the 28-year-old. Interestingly, the Padres, Rangers, and Red Sox have also been linked to Tomoyuki Sugano, another high-profile NPB name on the market. Sugano’s posting window doesn’t close until January 7, so it’s possible that whichever team lands Arihara could drop out of the race for Sugano.
Comparisons between the two pitchers are inevitable, and Sugano certainly has the more successful track record in Nippon Professional Baseball, as a two-time Sawamura Award winner and one of the better pitchers in the entire league over the last decade. Sugano is also 31, however, while Arihara doesn’t turn 29 until August. Arihara would also presumably be available at a lower price tag, which is certainly a factor for any team in this offseason.
Arihara has a 3.74 ERA, 3.23 K/BB rate, and 6.7 K/9 over 836 innings for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters. After winning Pacific League Rookie Of The Year honors in 2015, Arihara had a strong sophomore campaign in 2016 before his production took a dip in 2017-18. He righted the ship with his finest season, as Arihara has a 2.46 ERA and 8.8 K/9 (both career bests) over 164 1/3 frames for the Fighters in 2019.
As per a scouting report from Will Hoefer of the Sports Info Solutions blog after that big 2019 season, Arihara has a plus changeup, and a fastball that can touch 95mph (though Arihara prefers to mix speeds to keep batters guessing). Arihara has good command over these two pitches “and a slider that flashes plus,” and Hoefer projects the righty as “a middle of the rotation starter for an MLB team.”
Such an arm would surely be attractive to the three reported finalists. The Padres are looking for rotation help in the wake of Mike Clevinger‘s Tommy John surgery, and the Rangers and Red Sox are both looking for live arms just to fill out a rotation after their pitchers largely struggled in 2020. In Texas, Arihara would slot in alongside veterans Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, with newly-acquired Dane Dunning also tabbed for a rotation spot after being acquired in the Lance Lynn trade. Boston’s pitching staff is even more open, given the uncertainty over how Eduardo Rodriguez will bounce back from the health problems that kept him off the mound in 2020, the ever-present injury concerns for Nathan Eovaldi, and an overall lack of experience among other starting options.
According to the MLB/NPB posting system, Arihara has been free to negotiate with any Major League club over his 30-day period, and once he signs with a team, that team will owe the Fighters a release fee that will vary based on the size of Arihara’s contract. The Fighters will receive a sum of 20 percent of a contract’s first $25MM, and then 17.5 percent of the next $25MM, and 15 percent of any dollars spent beyond the $50MM threshold.
Padres Sign Nick Burdi, Nick Ramirez To Minor League Deals
The Padres have signed right-hander Nick Burdi and lefty Nick Ramirez to minor league contracts, according to Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
The hard-throwing Burdi underwent his second Tommy John surgery in October, so the 27-year-old probably won’t be available to the Padres at all in 2021. A second-round pick of the Twins in 2014, Burdi appeared in the majors with the Pirates in each of the previous three seasons, though he only combined for 12 1/3 innings. He also has just five Triple-A innings under his belt, but Burdi has pitched to a 3.44 ERA with 12.2 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 115 minor league frames.
Ramirez, 31, debuted in 2019 and led the Tigers’ bullpen in innings (79 2/3) that year. He threw another 10 2/3 last season. Overall, Ramirez pitched to a 4.28 ERA/4.71 FIP with 8.47 K/9, 3.89 BB/9 and a 46.2 percent groundball rate in a Tigers uniform. Detroit outrighted him in October.
Padres, Royals Among Teams Interested In Jurickson Profar
The Padres and Royals are among the teams showing interest in free-agent infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets the same, adding that the Padres “are trying” to bring Profar back to the organization. It’s sensible that the Padres want him back; he was solid there in 2020 and GM A.J. Preller was an assistant GM with the Rangers during Profar’s developmental years. Royals GM Dayton Moore recently expressed interest in a left-handed bat who can handle third base or the outfield, and the switch-hitting Profar fits that mold.
Profar’s end-of-season numbers certainly look appealing. The 27-year-old (28 in February) slashed .278/.343/.428 with seven homers, six doubles and seven steals through 202 plate appearances, adding in a career-low 13.9 percent strikeout rate. It’s the second time in three seasons that Profar rated as an above-average hitter per both OPS+ and wRC+.
That said, there’s also reason for some caution with regard to Profar’s production. Things can change quickly in a 60-game, 200-plate appearance sample, and that was certainly the case in this instance. Through the first 30 games and 111 plate appearances of the 2020 season, Profar posted a .181/.291/.319 slash with four home runs and one double. He had some miserable batted-ball luck in that time (.171 BABIP), but Profar’s season exemplifies the difficulty of how to evaluate players coming off this year’s 60-game slate; for half the year he was among the worst hitters in MLB, and for his final 91 plate appearances he was among the game’s best (albeit with a whopping .423 BABIP in that time as the pendulum swung the other direction).
Profar is lacking in terms of exit velocity and hard-hit rate, but his low strikeout rate and a passable walk rate still lead metrics like Statcast’s expected batting average (xBA) and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) to peg him as a slightly above-average hitter based on the quality and regularity of contact made.
Defensively, Profar has been moved off second base twice in the past two seasons — first in Oakland and then in San Diego (although the move in San Diego was perhaps more about Jake Cronenworth‘s emergence as it was Profar’s struggles). Profar developed a case of the yips while serving as Oakland’s regular second baseman early in 2019, at one point making eight errors in a span of 25 games. He righted the ship but was still dinged hard by defensive metrics: -15 Defensive Runs Saved and -5 Outs Above Average. His marks in 2020 were better, and it’s only fair to point out that those same metrics suggest Profar was anywhere from a passable to very good left fielder for the Padres in 2020.
Taken in totality, Profar’s last three seasons have produced a league-average hitter who is capable of playing three infield positions, but perhaps none of them especially well, with an encouraging but small sample of work in left field. He’s an efficient base stealer (26-for-28) but by no means a burner, as Statcast puts his average sprint speed right around the 50th percentile throughout the league. He’s toward the bottom of the league in hard contact but toward the top of the league in terms of putting the ball in play.
Profar is a useful player as is, but the allure of his former prospect status and his youth surely hold appeal to other clubs. He’ll play all of next season at 28, and while it was close to a decade ago, Profar was the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball heading into the 2013 season, topping the lists from Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN and Baseball Prospectus alike. He’s had two shoulder surgeries since that time, however, which effectively cost him two full years of development. He was also quite arguably rushed to the Majors in the first place, debuting as a 19-year-old for a win-now Rangers club back in 2012.
There’s still an air of upside surrounding Profar because of that status and his age, even if his batted-ball profile isn’t a particularly encouraging one. The question for Profar may be one of whether to take a one-year deal in hopes of a cashing in on a strong 2021 season or taking a multi-year pact at an annual value that would look like a bargain if he does indeed elevate his game in 2021. Those decisions will be weighed by his camp as he continues to field offers, although the Royals have been surprisingly aggressive with players they identify as targets, which would seemingly bode well for Profar’s market.
Padres Sign Nabil Crismatt
The Padres have signed Nabil Crismatt, as announced by the right-hander himself on his Instagram page. Crismatt elected to become a free agent after being outrighted off the Cardinals’ 40-man roster following the season.
2020 saw the 25-year-old Crismatt made his MLB debut, as he tossed 8 1/3 innings over six relief appearances for St. Louis and posted a 3.24 ERA and eight strikeouts against just one walk. He has also impressed in recent Dominican Winter League outings, with a 2.00 ERA, 8.50 K/BB rate, and 8.5 K/9 over 18 innings.
Crismatt began his pro career as a Mets international signing out of Colombia back in 2011, and he has a career 3.82 ERA, 3.90 K/BB rate, and 9.5 K/9 over 641 2/3 innings in the minors with the Mets (from 2012-18) and Mariners (in 2019). Crismatt has started 88 of his 167 appearances at the minor league level, with the majority of those starts coming since the start of the 2017 campaign.
While Crismatt’s overall numbers on the farm are pretty solid, he has struggled mightily at Triple-A, with an 8.96 ERA over 85 1/3 innings that seems largely due to an ungainly 2.4 HR/9. Home runs have (to a much lesser extent) been something of an issue throughout his career, and all three of the runs Crismatt surrendered in the majors last season were via the long ball. If the Padres can correct or even lessen Crismatt’s problems at keeping the ball in the park, he could be an interesting depth piece for the bullpen, rotation, or perhaps even both in a swingman capacity.
Latest Rumblings On Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer
The Padres are among the clubs with interest in Reds right-hander Sonny Gray, Fansided’s Robert Murray reports, although there’s no indication that the two sides have engaged in meaningful discussions to this point.
Gray’s name has persistently popped up in the rumor mill this winter, and while Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has sought to downplay Gray chatter as a matter of performing due diligence, it’s hard not to place some extra stock in the Gray rumblings amid the backdrop of several cost-cutting moves out of Cincinnati. The Reds surprisingly non-tendered right-hander Archie Bradley just months after acquiring him in a deadline trade, despite the fact that he pitched well for them and was due a raise on a team-friendly $4.1MM salary. They also cut loose their other primary deadline pickup, outfielder Brian Goodwin, and catcher Curt Casali. Goodwin had struggled in Cincinnati, but Casali turned in a solid 2020 season.
Perhaps most surprising was the trade that sent closer Raisel Iglesias to the Angels in exchange for righty Noe Ramirez and minor league infielder Leo Rivas. It was a marginal return, at best, on a quality late-inning reliever whose $9.125MM salary isn’t exactly exorbitant. Following both the Bradley non-tender and the Iglesias trade, Krall has spoken of reallocating those resources. He did so again this week in an appearance on MLB Network’s MLB Now (video link):
“I think we’ve done some things to reallocate our resources within the organization, and we’re just trying to figure out what’s the best thing we can do for our organization moving forward,” said Krall.
Some Reds fans may hope to see the team utilize those savings for a run at retaining Trevor Bauer, but that may not be likely. In that MLB Now spot, Krall discussed “adding pitching depth, whether it’s rotation depth with the loss of Trevor Bauer.” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman added further context today, tweeting that the Reds consider Bauer to be beyond their price range and adding that Bauer “will be pitching elsewhere” in 2021. It obviously takes just one change of heart from ownership to push for a deal to come together, but that’s a rather bleak characterization of where things stand with regard to their chances of retaining the reigning NL Cy Young winner.
Turning back to Gray, the match between the Reds and Padres is a sensible one on paper but perhaps not so much in practice. The Friars thought they were acquiring multiple years of a high-end rotation option when picking up Mike Clevinger prior to the trade deadline, but he’s now sidelined for all of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery.
That leaves a hole at the top of the rotation, but Murray suggests that even Gray’s $10MM salary might be outside San Diego’s comfort zone at this point. Surely, that’s all the more true given that they’d have to trade away considerable young talent to pry Gray away; even if the Reds are seeking to cut costs, it’s hard to imagine them taking a weak return on Gray when the market for starting pitching has generally been a healthy one to this point.
The Padres already owe $86.05MM to the combination of Manny Machado, Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, Drew Pomeranz, Craig Stammen, Pierce Johnson, Matt Strahm and Clevinger. They still owe arbitration raises to Tommy Pham, Zach Davies, Dinelson Lamet, Emilio Pagan and Dan Altavilla.
For a Padres club intent on paring back last year’s $150MM payroll to some extent, taking on $10MM in salary might not work unless other payroll can be jettisoned elsewhere. And as Murray points out, there would probably be questions about reuniting Gray with pitching coach Larry Rothschild, who coached Gray during an unsuccessful tenure in the Bronx.
Brewers To Sign Luis Perdomo
The Brewers have a deal in place with righty Luis Perdomo, according to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter). It’s a minor-league arrangement.
The 27-year-old Perdomo had been cut loose recently by the Padres. He’s expected to miss all of the upcoming campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
It isn’t clear just yet whether the accord has any special provisions (such as an option) for future seasons. If nothing else, Perdomo will be eligible for arbitration once again at season’s end, so the Brewers could decide to add him to their 40-man roster and tender him a contract if his rehab progresses well.
If he can fully recover from his elbow woes, Perdomo will be looking for a chance to prove that he can deliver consistent results at the MLB level. He has a standout, mid-nineties sinker that reliably produces gaudy groundball numbers, but owns only a 5.19 ERA in his 444 1/3 career frames at the game’s highest level.
A.J. Preller Discusses Padres’ Offseason, Tatis, Lamet
Padres general manager A.J. Preller spoke with reporters (including MLB.com’s Maria Guardado and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin) Monday about a variety of topics related to the team’s offseason business, including a continued search for pitching. However, an in-house star was also discussed, as Preller said that working out a multi-year extension for Fernando Tatis Jr. is “a priority” for the organization.
“I think his situation is a priority and I think we’re in a position to try to line up on a deal,” Preller said. “I think we’ll see what happens here over the course of the rest of the offseason, to see if we can do that.”
Tatis has quickly become one of baseball’s biggest young talents over his two MLB seasons, hitting .301/.374/.582 with 39 homers over 629 career plate appearances. He doesn’t even turn 22 years old until January, putting him on pace to receive a potential record-setting free agent contract if he reaches the open market following his age-25 season. Tatis’ price tag will already begin to rise significantly next offseason, as he will reach the first of three years of arbitration eligibility.
The Padres therefore have lots of incentive to ink Tatis to a long-term deal, and some common ground could be reached given that Tatis has also reportedly expressed interest in an extension. Locking in a life-changing fortune so early in his career would naturally have appeal to Tatis, and because he is so young, he has plenty of time to land at least one more major deal later in his career. Signing even a seven-year extension now would allow Tatis to still reach free agency before his age-29 season.
With both the COVID-19 pandemic and potential labor strife next winter hanging over the sport, Tatis could also prefer to get some guaranteed financial security sooner rather than later. On the flip side, Lin wonders if Tatis and his representatives would perhaps prefer to wait another year before seriously diving into extension talks, since by then there will be more clarity about both the state of public health and how baseball’s financial structure will be altered by a new collective bargaining agreement.
Since most extension negotiations usually don’t take place until later in the offseason, Preller’s more immediate attention will be focused on adding new pieces to the roster. The GM said the club is continuing to explore pitching options, and has “looked at it both ways,” in terms of adding either front-of-the-rotation ace type or perhaps more of a mid-rotation type.
“I think it’s just kind of going to depend on the individual pitcher that’s involved, and then obviously, what potentially we’d have to do from a money standpoint or from a trade standpoint,” Preller said. “Weighing that in versus what we see the impactability of our own talent and when that will happen.”
Dinelson Lamet‘s status will also surely factor into San Diego’s plans, as the right-hander missed the end of the season (and the playoffs) due to biceps tightness, and was undergoing platelet-rich plasma therapy on his throwing elbow. While Preller noted that the Padres won’t fully know how ready Lamet is until Spring Training, “in terms of the tests that he’s passing right now — all his workouts, picking up a baseball, beginning his throwing program to start the offseason — he’s reporting that he’s in a very similar spot to where he was last year, which is a good place,” Preller said.
Minor MLB Transactions: 12/14/20
Monday’s minor moves from around the game…
- The Padres have signed right-hander Jacob Rhame to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league spring training, Dennis Lin of The Athletic tweets. While Rhame spent time with the Angels organization last season, he didn’t appear in any of their games. Before joining the Halos, Rhame appeared in the majors as a Met in each season from 2017-19, but he could only manage a 6.23 ERA/6.06 FIP with 7.55 K/9 and 4.53 BB/9 in that 47 2/3-inning span. The 27-year-old has, however, been successful in Triple-A, where he owns a 3.73 ERA with 10.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 over 169 innings.
- The Tigers announced the addition of lefty reliever Ian Krol on a minors pact that comes with an invitation to big league camp. This will be the second Tigers stint for Krol, whom they first acquired from the Nationals in a 2013 trade centering on Doug Fister. Krol became a part of the Tigers’ bullpen from 2014-15, but he was unable to establish himself as a reliable reliever in Detroit. He had a career year the next season as a member of the Braves, with whom he threw 51 innings of 3.18 ERA/2.91 FIP ball and notched 9.88 K/9 and 2.29 BB/9. Things have since gone downhill for Krol, who had a poor 2017 with the Braves, threw only two MLB frames as an Angel in 2018, and hasn’t resurfaced in the majors. He was hit with a 50-game suspension for a drug of abuse in 2019 and spent last season pitching independent ball.
Free Agent Notes: Sugano, Teheran, Semien
The Blue Jays and Rangers are among the teams interested in Tomoyuki Sugano, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. They join the previously-reported Padres and Red Sox as known suitors for the 31-year-old. Sugano has spent the past eight seasons with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball, where he’s generally been brilliant. He sports a career ERA of 2.32 at Japan’s highest level. Sugano was excellent as ever in 2020, tossing 137.1 innings of 1.97 ball, backed up by a strong combination of 8.6 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9. The NPB team formally posted Sugano last week, giving major league teams until January 7 to work out an agreement with the right-hander.
Some more notes on the open market:
- Right-hander Julio Teheran is planning a showcase for interested teams in mid-January, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The 29-year-old is coming off a dismal season with the Angels where he allowed 35 runs (including 12 homers) with a 20:16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 31.1 innings. Heyman notes that shoulder discomfort may have played a role in those struggles, but Teheran’s peripherals and velocity had been trending in the wrong direction for a few seasons even before the wheels fell off completely in 2020.
- The free agent market for Marcus Semien is progressing and could reach a resolution in the coming days, Passan further reports. The 30-year-old is one of the market’s more interesting evaluations. After a stellar 2019 effort that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting, Semien had something of a disappointing follow-up this past season. His .223/.305/.374 line matched the worst offensive output of his career. That comes with obvious shortened season caveats, though, as well as a career-low .260 BABIP that looks primed for a bit of positive regression. The Reds and Phillies are the most obvious shortstop-needy contenders, but plenty of teams could move other players (or even Semien himself) around the infield to accommodate his addition to the roster.