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Manny Machado Expects To Undergo Elbow Surgery, Possibly Before End Of Season

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TODAY: Manny Machado told reporters on Monday (including Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that elbow surgery is now the likely course of action. While he did not say exactly when he plans to have the procedure, he did suggest it could be before the end of the season. It’s highly possible the six-time All-Star is waiting until the Padres are mathematically eliminated from postseason contention to make a final decision. Regardless of when (or if) he eventually undergoes surgery, the third baseman hopes he’ll be back on the field for spring training next year.

SEPTEMBER 9: The Padres remain on the outer fringes of the NL wild card race, as San Diego is seven games behind the Diamondbacks for the final wild card berth, and the Marlins, Reds, and Giants are all sandwiched between Arizona and San Diego in the standings.  Barring a miraculous September surge, it looks like it’s just a matter of time before the Padres are eliminated from the playoff race, which could also bring an early end to Manny Machado’s season.

According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, it is possible Machado might be shut down due to recurring elbow problems, specifically the type of inflammation best known as “tennis elbow.”  This is the second straight season that Machado has dealt with the injury, and he could opt for an offseason surgery that shouldn’t impact his readiness for the start of Spring Training.

While tennis elbow doesn’t usually require surgery, it might be necessary to finally solve an injury that has been bothering the third baseman for the better part of two years.  “The effects recently are more frequent and severe,” Acee writes, noting that Machado has been limited to DH-only duty over his last seven games.  Even in a hitting-only role, Acee hears that “there are certain swings that cause [Machado] a great deal of pain.”

The injury hasn’t resulted in any time on the injured list for Machado, though he did miss a couple of weeks earlier in the season due to a minor hand fracture.  However, the lingering elbow problem could explain Machado’s relatively disappointing season, as he has hit .253/.317/.453 with 26 homers over 545 plate appearances.  While still a 112 wRC+, it’s well below Machado’s standards, particularly in comparison to the 153 wRC+ he posted in 2022 while finishing second in NL MVP voting.

Machado’s performance has been one of many factors in a very disappointing season for the Padres, who are 67-75 despite one of the game’s highest payrolls and a +73 run differential.  With a playoff berth looking like a longshot at best, there wouldn’t be much of a cost for the Padres in shutting down Machado and getting his rehab (whether involving a surgery or not) underway as quickly as possible to get a jump start on 2024.

Padres Reinstate Ji Man Choi

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The Padres activated Ji Man Choi from the 10-day injured list this evening. Matt Carpenter landed on the 10-day IL, retroactive to September 12, with right elbow inflammation.

Choi makes it back to the majors before season’s end. He has been out since August 14, when a ribcage strain sent him to the IL. He was able to get back into rehab games a couple weeks later, but it seemed his season would be over when he fouled a ball off his right foot while playing for Triple-A El Paso 10 days ago.

While the Friars initially announced that Choi had broken his ankle, they quickly changed the diagnosis to a Lisfranc injury. Within two days, he was back on the field for El Paso. He made three more rehab appearances before getting the call back to the big league club.

It’s of little consequence for San Diego at this stage. They’re down to 69-78 and going to miss the postseason. Yet it could be a small boost for Choi personally. The left-handed hitter will be a free agent this winter. Playing out the final two and a half weeks will at least allow him to go into the offseason with a fairly clean bill of health. It has been a challenging season overall, as the 32-year-old missed a couple months early in the season with a strained left Achilles. He returned shortly before the trade deadline, was flipped from the Pirates to San Diego, then hurt his rib (and subsequently his foot).

Thanks to the injuries, Choi has gotten into just 30 games. He has slumped to a .179/.239/.440 line over 92 plate appearances and has yet to record a hit as a Padre. Choi was a solid offensive player for the Rays over the four prior seasons, combining for a .242/.350/.421 batting line with a stellar 13.8% walk rate.

Carpenter has had a tough first season with the Friars. He has a .176/.322/.319 line with five homers through 237 trips to the dish, a far cry from his resurgent .305/.412/.727 showing in 47 games for the Yankees last year. Even if he’s able to make it back for the final few games, he’ll surely exercise a $5.5MM player option in lieu of a return trip to free agency.

In other Friars’ injury news, Joe Musgrove won’t return this season. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports that the Padres are scaling back the throwing program for their staff ace. Musgrove has been out since early August with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He hasn’t suffered any kind of setback. Without even a glimmer of hope for a playoff run, the team simply decided there’s no reason to push him.

Musgrove’s season concludes with a 3.05 ERA across 17 starts. He’s under contract for four more seasons at $20MM annually. He and Yu Darvish are the two locks for next year’s starting five. Blake Snell will be a free agent,while Seth Lugo is likely to decline a player option to test the market himself. Michael Wacha could also hit free agency if both he and the team decline their end of various options in his deal. That’ll leave the Friars in search of a handful of starting pitchers over the coming months.

Rich Hill Remains On Waivers

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Sept. 14: Bradford has issued a correction, tweeting that Hill’s waiver period does not expire until today. Hill has not yet formally gone unclaimed.

Sept. 13: Padres southpaw Rich Hill went unclaimed on waivers, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI (Twitter link). San Diego doesn’t have to outright him to a minor league affiliate. In all likelihood, he’ll remain on the Friars’ roster for the final couple weeks of the season.

The Padres put the veteran southpaw on waivers earlier this week. With their playoff hopes dashed, they tried to offload the roughly $817K remaining on his $8MM contract. No other team bit, leaving San Diego on the hook for that sum.

It’s not an especially surprising development. Players acquired after August 31 are ineligible to participate in the postseason. Hill is an impending free agent, so he’d only be available to another team for the final two and a half weeks of the regular season. Even with clubs permitted to carry 14 pitchers on the roster in September, there wasn’t enough upside to absorb Hill’s above-minimum salary for just a few weeks.

The 43-year-old also simply hasn’t pitched well of late. He has been tagged for a 9.25 ERA over 24 1/3 innings since the deadline trade that sent him from the Pirates to San Diego. That includes two innings of two-run ball last night against the Dodgers. (Teams are permitted to continue using a player who is on waivers pending resolution of the claim.) He has allowed multiple runs in all but one of his eight outings as a Padre and has only gone beyond four innings once.

While there’s no sugarcoating his performance over the past six weeks, Hill was a reasonably effective back-end option for Pittsburgh. He worked to a 4.76 ERA through 22 starts for the Bucs, striking out 19.6% of batters faced against an 8.9% walk rate. Those are below-average marks but serviceable for a fifth/sixth starter, enough to pique San Diego’s interest at the deadline.

Overall, Hill sports a 5.53 ERA across 143 1/3 innings in what is his 19th year logging MLB action. He can work in a multi-inning relief capacity or make another start or two as San Diego plays out the string. He’ll have to take a cut relative to this year’s salary if he wants to continue playing, but he’d surely at least find minor league interest if he’s interested in prolonging his career.

Padres Shut Down Yu Darvish For Season

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The Padres are shutting down Yu Darvish for the rest of the season, skipper Bob Melvin told reporters (including Dennis Lin of the Athletic). Testing revealed an olecranon stress reaction in the veteran righty’s throwing elbow.

Darvish has been on the injured list since August 26. The issue was first diagnosed as inflammation. The stress reaction is more serious, though it’s expected that Darvish will be able to rehab the injury without surgery. There’s little reason for the Friars to take chances with any notable player now that their playoff hopes are dashed.

The 37-year-old Darvish is a key rotation member beyond this season. Last winter, San Diego signed him to an extension which tacked on five years and $90MM in new money. It’s a bold investment that runs through the pitcher’s age-41 campaign.

While Darvish was coming off a 3.10 ERA showing last season, he didn’t replicate that production in 2023. He concludes his year with a 4.56 ERA across 24 starts and 136 1/3 innings. His underlying marks didn’t have the same level of decline, however. Darvish’s fastball velocity still sat just under 95 MPH on average. His strikeout rate dropped just one percentage point from 25.6% to 24.6%, while he lost less than one point on his swinging strike percentage. He issued a few more walks and allowed a bit more hard contact, but his profile beyond the ERA doesn’t look all that different from prior seasons.

It’s crucial for the Padres that Darvish perform at a mid-rotation or better level next year. The Friars have plenty of uncertainty in the starting staff. Blake Snell is headed to free agency. Seth Lugo is almost certain to join him by declining a $7.5MM player option. Each of Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez (the latter of whom has again worked almost exclusively in relief anyways) have complex options on their contracts but could potentially hit free agency themselves.

Darvish and Joe Musgrove — who is also on the injured list and might not return this season — are the only pitchers assured of spots in next year’s rotation. The upcoming free agent class is deep in starting pitching, so president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his staff figure to add two or more arms from the open market.

Padres Place Rich Hill On Waivers

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The Padres have placed veteran lefty Rich Hill on waivers, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. They’ll see if another team wants to claim southpaw — and the remaining $817K on this year’s $8MM salary in the process. If Hill goes unclaimed, he can remain with the Padres. They don’t have to outright him to a minor league affiliate.

Hill, 43, was acquired from the Pirates alongside Ji Man Choi prior to the trade deadline but hasn’t performed as hoped. In seven appearances with the Friars, he’s logged a 9.27 ERA, yielding 23 runs over the life of 22 1/3 innings. He was far more serviceable in Pittsburgh, where he logged a 4.76 ERA in 119 frames over the season’s first three months. Hill isn’t missing bats like he used to, with a below-average 19.6% strikeout rate against a slightly higher-than-average 8.9% walk rate.

It hasn’t been Hill’s best season, but he’s only a year removed from starting 26 games for the Red Sox and turning in a 4.27 earned run average with a slightly improved 20.7% strikeout rate and a sharp 7% walk rate. He wouldn’t be postseason-eligible with a new team, as players are required to be in their organization prior to Sept. 1 in order to qualify for that distinction. Still, a team in need of some innings down the stretch could certainly look to Hill as a veteran stopgap. He’s also voiced a desire to continue his career into 2024 — his age-44 season — so a quick stint elsewhere in the season’s final three weeks could serve as an audition of sorts for next year.

Hill’s recent performance and remaining salary give him a good chance at passing through waivers. However, if a team were to claim him, he’d have the potential to make some anecdotal history. The Padres are the 13th team of Hill’s career, placing him one shy of Edwin Jackson’s oddball record of 14 teams. If a new team claims Hill, he could tie Jackson’s mark and perhaps pass it this offseason, though that’s surely not of great consequence to him. (Immaculate Grid players, on the other hand, would surely welcome the record.)

In 379 career games dating all the way back to 2005, Hill has pitched 1400 1/3 innings, logging an overall 4.01 ERA with an 89-73 record, 23.9% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate. A new team and a potential offseason deal to come back for a 20th Major League season would give him a chance at topping 1500 innings and 100 wins in a career that’s been as lengthy as it has unusual.

Ben Gamel Elects Free Agency

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Padres outfielder Ben Gamel rejected an outright assignment in favor of free agency after clearing waivers, per his transaction log at MLB.com. He’s now able to sign with any club, though he wouldn’t be postseason-eligible with a new team and would be a free agent again once the season wraps up, given his six-plus years of service time.

Gamel, 31, appeared in just six games with the Padres before being designated for assignment. He went 3-for-15 with a double in that tiny sample but has posted a combined .286/.402/.498 line in 332 plate appearances between the Triple-A affiliates for the Rays and Padres in 2023.

His brief big league action this year marked the eighth season in which the veteran Gamel has seen time in the Majors. He’s previously suited up for the Mariners, Pirates, Brewers, Guardians and Yankees as well, logging a career .252/.332/.384 slash with 40 homers, 108 doubles, 15 triples and 21 stolen bases in 2221 plate appearances. Gamel is light on power but also boasts a keen eye at the plate (career 10.1% walk rate). He’s played all three outfield positions and (much more briefly) first base, though the bulk of his time in the Majors has been spent as a left fielder.

If he doesn’t sign somewhere between now and season’s end, Gamel will likely draw interest in minor league free agency over the winter, as he did last offseason before ultimately signing a minor league pact with the Rays. The left-handed-hitting Gamel has minimal platoon splits in the big leagues and is a career .302/.377/.460 hitter in 1644 Triple-A plate appearances, so he’s a nice depth option to have on hand, at the very least.

Padres Select Nick Hernandez

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3:45pm: The Friars have now made it official, selecting Hernandez and transferring Sanchez to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man. They reinstated Robert Suarez from his suspension and placed left-hander Tim Hill on the 15-day injured list due to a sprained left ring finger.

1:58pm: The Padres are set to select the contract of right-hander Nick Hernandez from Triple-A El Paso, reports Ari Alexander of Houston’s KPRC Channel 2. He’ll make his big league debut the first time he takes the mound.

Hernandez, 28, is a former Astros draftee (eighth round, 2016) who signed with San Diego in minor league free agency this offseason. His first year in the Padres organization has been mostly solid thus far. He’s posted sub-4.00 ERA marks with strong strikeout and walk rates in both Double-A and Triple-A, working to a combined 3.60 earned run average with a 33.2% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate in 60 innings.

Hernandez has regularly posted quality ERA marks and missed bats in the minors. Command has been an issue at times, evidenced by a career 11.7% walk rate in parts of three Triple-A seasons –though he’s been quite a bit better in that regard this year. Hernandez will get the opportunity to show the Padres that he deserves a chance to stick at the big league level over the season’s final few weeks. He’ll be able to become a minor league free agent again at season’s end if he’s removed from the 40-man.

The Padres will need to open a spot on the 40-man roster in order to formally add Hernandez to the Major League club. That can be easily achieved at this stage of the calendar, however. Both Ji Man Choi and Gary Sanchez remain on the 10-day injured list despite recently suffering fractures. Choi has been trying to play through his injury in Triple-A and could still feasibly return, but moving either to the 60-day injured list would clear roster space for Hernandez.

The New Fernando Tatis Jr.

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Just over a year ago, MLB announced that Padres superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. had been suspended for 80 games after testing positive for Clostebol, a banned performance-enhancing substance. The announcement came as Tatis was on the cusp of making his 2022 season debut after undergoing wrist surgery in March of that year due to a fractured wrist sustained during an offseason motorcycle accident.

The news shook the baseball world, as it was the first time a star player in his prime had been suspended for PED usage since Ryan Braun nearly a decade earlier. A whirlwind of controversy surrounded Tatis throughout the 2022 campaign and in the lead up to his return to the field back in April. Since then, however, Tatis has fallen into the background as discourse surrounding the Padres quickly began to focus on their disappointing season. Down years from Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Yu Darvish captured most of the focus around the baseball world, as well as the strong performances the club has received from Blake Snell, Juan Soto, and Ha-Seong Kim.

Though Tatis hasn’t been at the forefront of most fans’ minds this season, we’re getting a glimpse of what the now-24 year old looks like as a player in the wake of his lost season last year. While he hasn’t been the perennial-MVP candidate he looked to be in his first three seasons as a big leaguer, Tatis has put together a radically different profile this year that nonetheless should keep him in the conversation as one of the best everyday regulars in the sport.

From his debut in 2019 until the 2021 campaign that saw him appear in his first career All Star game and finish third in NL MVP voting, Tatis was the prototypical young superstar. A shortstop with speed and power, Tatis featured the best ISO, the second best wRC+, and the third best fWAR total among MLB regulars during his first three seasons as a big leaguer. Meanwhile, Statcast indicates the youngster boasted sprint speeds and barrel rates in the 95th percentile or better in each of those seasons, clearly indicating he was elite in both respects. On the other side of things, Tatis had a significant problem with strikeouts. His 27.6% strikeout rate in the first three seasons of his career was the 19th-highest among MLB regulars, higher than the likes of Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler.

Flash forward to 2023, and almost all of these things have changed. Most obviously, Tatis is no longer a shortstop; both Bogaerts and Kim have supplanted San Diego’s $340MM man on the infield depth chart, prompting Tatis to move into a regular role in the outfield. He’s played right field almost exclusively this year, with four games in center and a one-inning cameo at second base representing his only appearances elsewhere on the diamond. While Tatis’s glove may have slid down the defensive hierarchy in 2023, his value on defense has soared. Tatis was worth -10 Outs Above Average and -9 Defensive Runs Saved as a shortstop in his first three seasons in the majors, leaving him well below average at the position.

By contrast, Tatis’s aforementioned move to the outfield has seen him not only provide positive value with his glove, but become one of the best defensive players in the sport this year. Tatis ranks in the 96th percentile with a +12 OAA in 2023, a figure bested by zero outfielders and only eight players at any position this season. Meanwhile, his +23 DRS makes him the second most valuable fielder in all of baseball this year by that metric, outclassed by only Daulton Varsho’s +26 figure.

While Tatis’s defense has shown this season, his offense has taken a considerable hit. Overall on the season, he’s slashed just .257/.321/.455 in 558 trips to the plate. While that’s still good for a well above average wRC+ of 115, it pales in comparison to the 154 figure he entered the 2023 campaign with for his career. That drop in offensive production comes almost exclusively from a relative power outage. Tatis has hit just 23 homers this season, a far cry from his 2021 season where he slammed 42 dingers in less trips to the plate than he’s taken this year. His once-lofty ISO that was second to only Shohei Ohtani in 2021 has dropped to just .198 this year. That figure is barely enough to crack the top 50, putting him alongside the likes of Justin Turner and Willson Contreras rather than Ohtani and Matt Olson.

That being said, it hasn’t been all bad for Tatis on the offensive side of things. His speed is as elite as ever, clocking in with a 95th percentile sprint speed per Statcast. Meanwhile, he’s 25-for-29 on the bases, and figure identical to his 2021 total. What’s more, he’s seen considerable improvements in his strikeout rate. He’s punching out in just 21.7% of his plate appearances this year, a figure that puts him in line with hitters like Francisco Lindor, Jeimer Candelario and Josh Bell and pushes him to better than league average in terms of strikeouts for the first time in his career.

That improvement in strikeouts is thanks to Tatis posting the highest full-season contact rate of his career, as he’s made contact on 71.4% of his swings compared to 68.4% for his career entering his season. Unfortunately, he’s also swinging more than he did in his first three seasons. While he entered 2023 swinging at less than half of the pitches he’s seen in his career (49.1%), that figure has jumped to 54.3% in 2023. While that isn’t necessarily a problem, those additional swings are primarily occurring outside the strike zone: after swinging at 32% of pitches seen outside of the zone from 2019-21, he’s swinging at 36.1% of those same pitches this year. Given that, it’s hardly a surprise he’s posting the lowest barrel rate of his career (11.9%) despite a Hard-Hit rate that’s largely in line with his career norms.

Only time will tell if Tatis will be able to recapture his elite power stroke in the future by swinging less often outside of the strike zone. Fortunately for the Padres, though, Tatis remains an immensely valuable player even if his 2023 performance with the bat is his new normal. Tatis has been worth 4.0 fWAR and 5.0 rWAR this season. That fWAR figure puts him in the same ballpark as quality players like Soto, Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger this year, while his rWAR is the eighth-highest total in the NL this season. With 11 more years left on Tatis’s megadeal with the Padres, it’s surely a relief to A.J. Preller’s front office that the player they’ll be paying through his age-35 season can still play at an All Star-caliber level, even if he’s no longer be the 40-homer shortstop he was in 2021.

Padres "A Strong Candidate To Sign" Jung Hoo Lee

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Mookie Betts hasn’t played since suffering a bone bruise on his left foot on Thursday, though the superstar could be back in action as early as Monday when the Dodgers open a series against the Padres.  In the wake of the initial injury, the Dodgers put Betts through a battery of tests to ensure that his foot hadn’t incurred more serious damage, and Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register writes that Betts was walking normally around the L.A. clubhouse yesterday.

  • The Padres are “viewed as a strong candidate to sign” Jung Hoo Lee this winter, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes.  Lee has been posting excellent numbers over seven seasons in the KBO League, and only just turned 25 years old last month.  The outfielder’s 2023 season was prematurely ended due to ankle surgery, but Lee is still expected to be posted to MLB teams by the Kiwoom Heroes, his KBO club.  The Padres have traditionally been aggressive on the international market, and they might have an extra recruiting advantage since Ha-Seong Kim is a close friend of Lee’s and a former teammate with the Heroes.

Padres Select Jurickson Profar

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Sept. 8: The Padres have formally announced the Profar and Rosario moves. San Diego has placed Sanchez on the 10-day injured list and moved righty Alek Jacob to the 60-day IL in order to open space on the roster.

Sept. 7: The Padres will select Jurickson Profar back onto the major league roster, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Friars also plan to recall infielder Eguy Rosario from Triple-A. San Diego will presumably announce the moves before tomorrow’s series opener in Houston.

Profar returns to San Diego for the first time this year. The one-time top prospect spent the 2020-22 campaigns with the Friars. He hit .244/.333/.375 over that stretch, including a .243/.331/.391 showing in 152 games a year ago. He opted out of the final season of his contract and joined the Rockies on a $10MM free agent deal late in Spring Training, presumably after not finding the multi-year pact he’d been anticipating.

The 30-year-old’s stint in Denver didn’t work out. Profar slumped to a .236/.316/.364 slash despite spending half his games at Coors Field. While the delayed start to the season probably didn’t do him any favors, he never seemed to find a rhythm. Profar was hitting just .210/.288/.324 from the start of the second half until Colorado released him on August 27.

A few days later, the Padres brought him back on a minor league deal. Profar only suited up in four games for their top affiliate in El Paso before earning a return to the MLB roster. San Diego will have to formally select him onto the 40-man roster, though that won’t be an obstacle. The Friars could place any of Jake Cronenworth, Gary Sánchez or Ji Man Choi on the 60-day injured list to create a spot.

Profar has played exclusively left field at the MLB level over the past two seasons but picked up a couple starts at first base in Triple-A. He had plenty of infield experience earlier in his career and could potentially move around off the bench. With San Diego’s playoff hopes extinguished, it’s simply a depth add for the final few weeks. Profar will return to free agency at the start of the offseason. San Diego will pay him at the prorated $720K minimum level with the Rockies on the hook for the rest of his salary.

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