Poll: Ryan Madson Vs. Heath Bell
Most statistics say Phillies closer Ryan Madson had a better 2011 than Padres stopper Heath Bell. Madson is three years younger, but Bell has tallied three consecutive 40-save seasons. Both righties are Type A free agents, and guessing their contracts is an interesting exercise.
In the last three years, Madson has increased his strikeout rate to more than a batter per inning while maintaining strong walk and groundball rates. He had a reputation as someone who was better off in the eighth than the ninth inning heading into this year, but Madson silenced those critics by converting 32 of 34 opportunities once pressed into duty. He's represented by Scott Boras, and will find a three-year deal with ease. No free agent reliever has gotten a four-year deal since Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink four years ago, but I think Madson has a shot.
Bell experienced a marked decline in strikeout rate this year, showing signs of his old rate only in September. He still limited hits and home runs and converted 43 of 48 save opportunities. Bell wants and expects to remain in San Diego, saying in August that he'd accept arbitration if the Padres offer. Padres owner Jeff Moorad said one year was preferable to the team in some ways. It was reported later that month that the Padres offered a two-year, $14MM deal while Bell was seeking $27-30MM over three years. Bell is represented by ACES, an agency known for getting strong multiyear deals for veteran free agents.
For the sake of argument, let's say both relievers reach the open market. That's not hard to picture with Madson, who will certainly cost a draft pick to sign. For Bell to reach the open market, the Padres would probably have to decline to offer him arbitration. So in this scenario Madson costs a draft pick to sign and Bell does not. Working under these assumptions, which reliever gets a bigger overall contract, Madson or Bell?
Bigger contract: Ryan Madson or Heath Bell?
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Heath Bell 56% (3,966)
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Ryan Madson 44% (3,086)
Total votes: 7,052
Cafardo On Epstein, Red Sox, Sabathia, Rays
If Theo Epstein winds up taking the Cubs' GM job, then the spotlight again will be directed at Red Sox president/CEO Larry Lucchino, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Even if the club tabbed longtime exec Ben Cherington as general manager, it would take time before Cherington would have complete control over the operations. Here's more from Cafardo..
- There's growing sentiment that C.C. Sabathia will opt out of his contract with the Yankees. The Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Tigers, and Giants are among the usual suspects if the lefty hits the open market. Boston, however, might have doubts about Sabathia. Cafardo wonders if the front office would take on another sizeable pitching contract and add another overweight pitcher.
- The Rays will be able to make their rotation even scarier by adding 22-year-old Matt Moore to it. Tampa Bay also has righty Alex Cobb and lefty Alex Torres ready for the majors. The Rays could parlay their pitching depth into offense by trading Cobb, Torres, Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis if need be.
- The feeling is that Padres skipper Bud Black has a real chance of becoming the Angels next GM. Black, who is good friends with Mike Scioscia, doesn’t have front office experience but has a pitching expertise that would make him valuable in that position.
- Former Mets GM Omar Minaya thinks that Willie Randolph, Chip Hale, Tim Wallach, and Ryne Sandberg would all be good fits to manage in Boston. Minaya is currently an analyst for the MLB Network and is mulling over a few offers to return to baseball as an adviser to a GM. He expects to make a decision as the winter unfolds.
- Red Sox third base coach Tim Bogar could be retained when a new manager is named. There has also been speculation that Bogar is a candidate for bench coach under new White Sox manager Robin Ventura. Cafardo gives the White Sox credit for being decisive and hiring Robin Ventura rather than wait for a big name like Tony La Russa.
- Former Red Sox coach John McLaren is managing the Chinese national team and might be a candidate to become bench coach with the Mets.
Red Sox Notes: Epstein, Wallach, Lackey, Padres
Here's the latest from Fenway Park…
- "People around the game [are] getting [the] idea that" Theo Epstein will likely remain as Boston's GM, reports Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated (Twitter link). Yesterday, Heyman reported that "a slight majority" of people around baseball believed Epstein would turn down a job offer from the Cubs.
- Dodgers third base coach Tim Wallach is under consideration for the manager's job, reports Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe. Wallach "is still at the stage of being considered for an interview," according to several sources. Wallach's name was mentioned in connection with the open managerial jobs with the Dodgers, Marlins and Blue Jays last winter.
- A Padres official tells Tom Krasovic of the Inside The Padres blog that it "is not farfetched at all" that San Diego would consider a trade for John Lackey this winter. Krasovic thinks Lackey could benefit from pitching at Petco Park and reuniting with Bud Black, who was Lackey's pitching coach with the Angels. Krasovic proposes a trade that would require Boston to pay most of Lackey's salary, take Orlando Hudson in return and also send "a young big leaguer or a good prospect, or two" back to the Padres. It sounds lopsided in San Diego's favor, but given how low Lackey's stock has fallen, the Red Sox will have to meet similar trade criteria in any potential Lackey deal.
Rockies Rumors: Stewart, Wright, Headley, Alvarez
The Rockies pick tenth in next year's draft, a pick that will be protected if they sign a Type A free agent who turned down arbitration this offseason. The latest on the team, from Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post:
- Kevin Kouzmanoff is unlikely to return to the Rockies next year. MLBTR reported yesterday that the team is in the process of outrighting the third baseman. Ian Stewart will get another shot at the third base job if he "makes baseball his first priority from the start of the winter until the end of it," GM Dan O'Dowd told Renck. The Rockies will need to make a decision on Stewart by the December 12th non-tender deadline though. Tendering him a contract probably means paying him around $2.2MM again.
- Opposing executives expect O'Dowd to aggressively pursue Mets third baseman David Wright. Otherwise Renck expects the Rockies to cast a wide net, including the Padres' Chase Headley and the Pirates' Pedro Alvarez but not free agent Aramis Ramirez. I have a hard time imagining the Padres sending Headley to their division rival; the two teams haven't matched up for an offseason trade since the Rockies' inaugural season.
- The Rockies are looking to trade Ty Wigginton even it means eating some of the $4.5MM owed to him.
- Renck reiterates that the Rockies seek an innings eater this offseason.
Arbitration Eligibles: San Diego Padres
The Padres are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Clayton Richard, Jeff Fulchino, Luke Gregerson, Will Venable, Nick Hundley, Joe Thatcher, Rob Johnson
- Second time: Chase Headley, Tim Stauffer, Dustin Moseley, Chris Denorfia, Alberto Gonzalez
- Third time: Jeremy Hermida
With 13 arbitration eligible players, the Padres have the biggest class of the 23 teams we've reviewed to date. It's not a terribly expensive group, however, with no individual projected to exceed a $3MM salary.
The Padres have plenty of non-tender candidates. September waiver claim Fulchino had a rough year; he'd earn $800K or so. Others on the bubble include Thatcher ($800K), Johnson ($700K), Gonzalez ($800K), and Hermida ($500K). There are reasons to retain several of them. Thatcher had a lost 2011 season due to April shoulder surgery, but a strong 2010. Gonzalez plays capable defense. Hermida was a late waiver claim who may merit a look in 2012.
Headley ($3MM), Stauffer ($3MM), Richard ($2MM), Moseley ($1.8MM), Venable ($1.8MM), Hundley ($1.6MM), Gregerson ($1.3MM), and Denorfia ($1.2MM) are on firmer ground. Richard and Moseley had decent but low-strikeout seasons cut short this summer due to shoulder surgery. There are also concerns with guys like Venable and Gregerson, but the prices aren't scary.
I don't expect all 13 players to be retained, but their combined salaries project for about $19.3MM. The Padres have just $13.55MM in 2012 contractual commitments, mostly from their middle infield. Adding the arbitration eligibles puts the team at $33MM in commitments next year, before minimum salary players are considered. Next year's payroll is expected to be in the $53-55MM range, leaving around $20MM in 2012 salaries for GM Jed Hoyer to allocate toward another group of low-risk, moderate reward free agents.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
22 Triple-A Players Elect Free Agency
A total of 22 players that finished the year in Triple-A elected free agency after the end of the regular season according to the transaction pages of the Pacific Coast and International Leagues. All but one of those 22 players (Matt Carson, formerly of the Rays) played in the big leagues this season. Here's the full list:
Dusty Brown (Pirates), Travis Buck (Indians), Armando Galarraga (D'Backs), Jay Gibbons (Dodgers), Edgar Gonzalez (Rockies), Steve Holm (Twins), Wil Ledezma (Blue Jays), Andy LaRoche (Athletics), Felipe Lopez (Brewers), Lastings Milledge (White Sox), Pat Misch (Mets), Pat Neshek (Padres), Mike O'Connor (Mets), Matt Palmer (Angels), Felix Pie (Orioles), Brad Snyder (Cubs), Brett Tomko (Rangers), Wyatt Toregas (Pirates), P.J. Walters (Blue Jays), Randy Williams (Red Sox), and Reggie Willits (Angels).
West Links: Maybin, Scioscia, Athletics
It's been a busy day for baseball's west coast teams. Angels GM Tony Reagins resigned, we learned that Dodgers star Matt Kemp won't talk about an extension until next season, and the Athletics swung a minor deal. Let's round up some other news from the two west divisions…
- Dan Hayes of The North County Times hears that contract extension talks between Cameron Maybin and the Padres have "slowed significantly." We heard that the two sides had mututal interest in an extension earlier this month. (Twitter link)
- "I do not believe so," said Angels president John Carpino when asked if manager Mike Scioscia could be promoted to GM after Reagins' resignation by Bill Shaikin of The Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). "That would probably be a question for Mike."
- Mike DiGiovanna of The Los Angeles Times lists some GM candidates for the Angels. Here is MLBTR's list of the game's top 20 GM candidates.
- The Athletics announced in a press release that the contracts of bench coach Joel Skinner, pitching coach Ron Romanick, and hitting coach Gerald Perry will not be renewed. Interim manager Bob Melvin signed a three-year extension recently, and he'll likely be able to bring in his own people.
Padres Notes: Qualls, Harang, Bell, Ready
The Padres' victory last night gave them a 71-91 record for the 2011 season and, as small consolation, the seventh overall pick in next year's amateur draft. There won't be daily Adrian Gonzalez rumors out of San Diego this winter, but it will be an interesting offseason nonetheless for the Friars. Here's the latest…
- The Padres won't pick up Chad Qualls' $6MM option for next season, a source tells Dan Hayes of the North County Times (Twitter link). San Diego will instead pay the $1.05MM to buy Qualls out but the club is still interested in bringing back the veteran right-hander.
- Also from Hayes, no decision has been made yet about Aaron Harang. The Padres and Harang share a $5MM mutual option for 2012; Harang would get a $500K buyout if the option isn't exercised.
- "My gut feeling is that I will be here [in 2012],” Heath Bell tells Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune. "They have my number. They know I want to stay. I think they’re going to take advantage of that."
- Randy Ready will not be returning as San Diego's hitting coach next season, according to a team press release. The rest of the club's coaching staff will remain intact.
- Dan Hayes hears from a source that Sean Berry and Phil Plantier are being considered for the hitting coaches' job next year (Twitter link). Both men could end up being hired as GM Jed Hoyer said the Padres will have two hitting coaches next season, tweets Tom Krasovic of the Inside The Padres blog.
- The Padres will focus on run prevention this winter and look to add starting pitching, writes MLB.com's Corey Brock. The club will also look to acquire some depth for the bench and, as always, some hitting.
- Owner Jeff Moorad said the Padres lost $1.6MM in 2011, tweets Hayes. Moorad also said he hopes to have a new TV contract for the team finalized by New Year's Day.
NL West Notes: Padres, Kershaw, Iannetta
On this date 15 years ago, Barry Bonds stole his 40th base of the season to become the second member of the 40-40 club. Matt Kemp is now two homers away from joining the elite club himself. Here's the latest from Bonds' former division, starting with an update on Kemp's current club…
- Padres GM Jed Hoyer told Nick Canepa of the San Diego Union-Tribune that the 2011 season was an instructive one for him. "I missed on some guys we signed after they had off years and that helped lead to a disappointing 2011,” he said. Hoyer's also looking to improve his bench dramatically this offseason, when the Padres' payroll could climb over $50MM.
- Clayton Kershaw told MLB.com's Ken Gurnick that he has started to think about next year's contract. The Dodgers left-hander, who earned $500K this year says he's looking forward to the arbitration process and isn't overly concerned about obtaining a long-term deal. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes explained earlier today that Kershaw could earn a record $7.7MM as a first-time arbitration eligible starter if he wins the Cy Young Award.
- The MLB Players Association intends to monitor the Dodgers' offseason spending very carefully, according to Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. MLBPA executive director Michael Weiner sent team's players a memo explaining that all Dodgers have been paid what they're owed so far. The memo acknowledged that it's not clear how the financial issues surrounding Frank McCourt and his team will ultimately be resolved.
- Tracy Ringolsby of FOX Sports says Chris Iannetta will open the 2012 season with the Rockies (Twitter link). The catcher is no stranger to these pages, but his .370 on-base percentage and powerful right-handed swing give the Rockies lots of reasons to want him around, despite the presence of Jordan Pacheco and Wilin Rosario.
Athletics Rumors: Crisp, DeJesus, Harden
The Athletics currently project for the ninth pick in next year's draft, though that could change by the end of Wednesday. The latest A's info, courtesy of Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle:
- Coco Crisp's agent Steve Comte agreed with Matt Sosnick's comments about the Athletics' offseason spending hinging on MLB's decision on the team's new stadium. Comte hasn't spoken to A's GM Billy Beane recently, but noted the long-term impact of the stadium issue was apparent back in Spring Training. Nonetheless, Crisp and his agent will keep an open mind and "see what the market brings." Crisp, 31, has a .267/.317/.384 line in 575 plate appearances, with 48 steals in 57 tries. It's been Crisp's healthiest year since '07, but he's posted his worst walk rate since '06. UZR suggests his defense was slightly below-average this year, but Crisp's ability to simply play a passable center field regularly makes him valuable. Given the state of the free agent market at the position, I think a two-year deal is probable. Slusser's sources expect the Giants to be interested.
- Signing Brandon McCarthy for a $1MM base salary was one of the best moves of the offseason, and the 28-year-old righty considers his season a successful comeback. For less than $2MM in total, he's provided a 3.32 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9, and 46.7% groundball rate in 170 2/3 innings. His ERA ranks 13th in the American League and his five complete games tie him for second. The cherry on top: McCarthy is arbitration eligible for 2012 and should be affordable again.
- Slusser talked to A's outfielder David DeJesus, who said, "This year wasn't me. I want to break things down and understand what went wrong." DeJesus, 31, slipped to .237/.321/.374 in 502 plate appearances and may have been affected by losing his status as an everyday player. Slusser expects the Padres to be in the mix for the bounceback candidate, who will become a free agent shortly.
- Righty Rich Harden said he'd "definitely be open" to returning to the A's in 2012. The 29-year-old made all his starts since his July 1st season debut, posting a 5.12 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.85 HR/9, and 31.5% groundball rate in 82 2/3 innings.
- Hideki Matsui is not really proud of his numbers this year, the designated hitter told Joe Stiglich of the San Jose Mercury News through a translator. Matsui, 37, hit .251/.321/.376 in 576 plate appearances.
- In our latest Elias Rankings projections, Crisp, Harden, and Matsui projected for neither Type A nor B status, while DeJesus projected for Type B.