Free Agent Stock Watch: Kevin Correia
Like the Padres, Kevin Correia started the season well but slumped down the stretch. There's no question that the 30-year-old's late-season struggles will limit his asking price this winter. Here's a closer look at the right-hander's free agent stock:
The Pros
- Correia can strike hitters out (7.1 K/9 in 2010).
- He stayed healthy all year.
- Teams were showing interest in Correia not long ago; the Brewers and Rays asked about him last offseason.
- Despite the righty's 5.40 ERA, defense-independent pitching stats suggest he was unlucky. Nearly 15% of fly balls hit off of Correia left the yard, so homers inflated his ERA.
- Correia has induced more grounders in the past two seasons (45% ground ball rate in '09, 49% ground ball rate in '10). This suggests he could pitch just as effectively in a considerably smaller park than Petco.
- He's just a year removed from a season in which he posted a 3.91 ERA in 33 starts.
The Cons
- He posted a 5.40 ERA last year, allowing more than a hit per inning. Lucky or not, those numbers are ugly.
- Bud Black took note and removed the right-hander from the Padres' rotation in September. Correia had posted a 6.18 ERA between June and August. That's one long slump.
- His walk rate jumped from 2.9 BB/9 to 4.0 BB/9 in 2010.
The Verdict
It doesn't look great for Correia, though he shouldn't have trouble drawing interest. Teams like the Orioles and Brewers will be looking for back-of-the-rotation arms this offseason and Correia's ability to induce grounders would play well in homer-friendly places like Camden Yards and Miller Park. But other free agents (including former Brewer Dave Bush and former Oriole Kevin Millwood) will be vying for rotation spots and Correia doesn't have much leverage given his poor finish. A one-year deal worth $2MM or so seems like a reasonable target for the San Diego native, who may well end up with the Padres again.
Odds & Ends: Wilson, Twins, Greinke, Dodgers
As the Giants take a 2-1 lead in the NLCS, let's look at some news from around the baseball world…
- Though C.J. Wilson will get a big arbitration raise, ESPN's Jason A. Churchill thinks the Rangers are more likely to keep the southpaw rather than put him on the trade market.
- The Twins need another top-flight starter, and Jim Souhan of the Minneapolis Star Tribune thinks the team should try to acquire Zack Greinke. His proposed offer of Delmon Young, Kevin Slowey and a prospect won't be enough to get it done, especially since Kansas City would be sending Greinke to a division rival.
- Dodgers GM Ned Colletti says the club's payroll will increase in 2011, according to Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times. (Twitter link)
- Detroit "will make [a] strong push" to sign Victor Martinez this winter, tweets The Denver Post's Troy Renck. The Rockies, meanwhile, are a "longshot" to sign the free agent catcher.
- Also from Renck (via Twitter), Troy Tulowitzki isn't likely to give the Rockies a discount on his next contract since the six-year, $31MM deal he signed before the 2008 season has already proven to be very team-friendly. Tulowitzki is locked up through 2013 and the Rockies have a team option (for $15MM) on him for 2014, so it'll be at least a couple of years before Colorado thinks about extending the star shortstop.
- PGP of the DRaysBay.com blog looks at why Tampa Bay might think about trading Matt Garza and what he could fetch in a deal.
- If Cliff Lee signs a six-year contract with the Yankees this winter, he could earn close to $200MM in salary and endorsement deals, estimates Forbes Magazine's Patrick Rishe.
- Magic Johnson owning the Dodgers? ESPN.com's J.A. Adande wants to see it happen.
- Padres assistant GM Fred Uhlman Jr. will remain with the club, tweets MLB.com's Corey Brock. There were rumors that Uhlman could head to Arizona to work with former Padres general manager Kevin Towers.
- The Cardinals need to patch up the "rift" that has developed in the front office in recent years, writes Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Gordon also looks at the Cardinals' minor league system and the team's last several drafts.
- Fangraphs' Pat Andriola looks at which teams did and didn't benefit from "the old guy discount" last winter.
Arbitration Eligibles: San Diego Padres
The Padres are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Chris Denorfia, Tony Gwynn, Edward Mujica, Tim Stauffer
- Second time: Mike Adams
- Third time: Ryan Ludwick, Heath Bell, Scott Hairston
Denorfia, Mujica, Stauffer, Adams, and Bell are highly likely to be tendered contracts. Adams and Bell should get noticeable raises, with the latter in line for a salary in the $7MM range. Bell hopes for a three-year deal, though a trade can't be ruled out given the Padres' strong bullpen. Ludwick disappointed after coming over in a deadline day trade, hitting .211/.301/.330 in 239 Padres PAs. Still, it appears he'll be tendered a contract.
Gwynn and Hairston are non-tender candidates. Gwynn hit .204/.304/.287 in 339 plate appearances, missing time due to wrist surgery. Ludwick staying would increase the chances of Hairston going; last month 69% of you predicted a non-tender for Hairston.
Odds & Ends: Ross, Hale, Daniels, Mets, Coaches
Some links to check out as Cody Ross attempts to follow up yesterday's two-home run performance and the Phillies look to even the score…
- Speaking of Ross, Andrew Baggarly of The Mercury News reports that Giants GM Brian Sabean left a "clear impression" before tonight's game that the outfielder will be tendered a contract this offseason.
- Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe tweets that Red Sox bench coach DeMarlo Hale is getting a second interview for the Blue Jays managerial position.
- SI.com's Jon Heyman tweets that the Mets have been "asking around" about Rangers GM Jon Daniels, and things could get interesting. Daniels can opt out of his contract after the season since the team was sold.
- Steve Popper of The Bergen Record says that the Mets might not be making the popular choices right now, especially with Francisco Rodriguez, Oliver Perez, Carlos Beltran, and Luis Castillo, but they're the right moves.
- Popper also reports that the Tigers denied the Mets permission to talk to assistant GM Al Avila about their GM vacancy.
- ESPN's Buster Olney tweets that Eric Young will be named the D'Backs first base coach later this week. In a second tweet, he says Eric Wedge's former pitching coach Carl Willis will likely play a big role on his new staff in Seattle.
- Despite the expected heavy interest from the Yankees and Rangers, Michael Silverman from the Boston Herald thinks the Red Sox should make a serious run at Cliff Lee.
- In the second page of that same article, Silverman quotes an unnamed executive in saying that a package consisting of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and prospect Anthony Rizzo wouldn't be enough to pry Adrian Gonzalez away from the Padres. He speculates the names that would be mentioned next would include Casey Kelly and Jose Iglesias.
- Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports says it makes more sense for the Orioles to trade for a middle-of-the-lineup hitter and an ace starter than seek one in free agency, and asks readers whether or not the O's should pursue Zack Greinke. In his blog post earlier today, ESPN's Buster Olney didn't see Baltimore as a fit for the Kansas City ace.
- Reduced payroll will force the Rays into some tough decisions, writes Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times. As Topkin points out, nearly the entire bullpen is entering free agency. Rafael Soriano, Grant Balfour, Randy Choate, Joaquin Benoit, and Chad Qualls are only signed through 2010, while Dan Wheeler's $4MM option will be declined and Lance Cormier could be non-tendered. Balfour and Choate are most likely to return, while Benoit will likely look to capitalize on his monster season.
- Richard Griffin from the Toronto Star spoke with Phillies bench coach Pete Mackanin, who could be a candidate for the Jays' managerial opening, about the difficulty of getting a foot in the door as a manager. As Griffin says, part of the reason they continue to interview candidates while other teams are filling their managerial positions could be because they have a high level of interest in someone like Mackanin, whose team is still playing.
- The Phillies' worst nightmare isn't losing to the Giants in the NLCS or losing to the Yankees in the World Series, according FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal. It's going to the World Series and facing the ace they traded away last offseason, who now sports a Rangers uniform — Cliff Lee.
Odds & Ends: Lee, Astros, Hermida, Rockies
As Cliff Lee prepares to face the Yankees in the ALCS, he's trying not to think about his impending free agency, according to T.R. Sullivan and Bill Ladson. Still, Lee hinted to the MLB.com writers that winning the World Series with the Rangers this year would make it that much harder to leave Texas. Here are a few other links from around the league, as we count down the final 24 hours until the ALCS gets underway….
- The Astros removed three players from their 40-man roster, outrighting Brian Esposito, Anderson Hernandez, and Wladimir Sutil to Triple-A, according to a team release.
- Jeremy Hermida appreciates that the Athletics allowed him to reach free agency early in the offseason, says Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
- Troy Renck of the Denver Post asked Lance Berkman about the possibility of coming to Colorado for next season, and Berkman said he might be interested (Twitter links). Of course, the 34-year-old will be looking for an everyday role, and Todd Helton is still very much in the first base picture for the Rockies.
- In a separate tweet, Renck adds that even with Jarrod Saltalamacchia under contract, the Red Sox could still inquire on Chris Iannetta this winter.
- Fangraphs' Jack Moore argues that Paul Janish's play at shortstop should prompt the Reds to turn down Orlando Cabrera's 2011 option. Yesterday, over 80% of you opined that Cincinnati wouldn't exercise Cabrera's option.
- The Triple-A Portland Beavers will be sold to a group led by Padres owner Jeff Moorad, as J. Harry Jones of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. If everything proceeds as planned, the club will play in Tucson in 2011 and then move permanently to Escondido in 2012, according to Jones and Josh Leventhal of Baseball America.
Heath Bell Hopes For Three-Year Deal
Heath Bell’s good at what he does and he’d like some job security. The Padres closer, who received MLB's Delivery Man of the Year award this week, told Dan Hayes of the North County Times that he’d like a multi-year deal from the Padres this offseason.
"Three years is perfect," Bell said. "I don't expect more because I'm an older guy."
Bell, who earned $4MM this year, hits free agency after next season. The subject of near-constant trade rumors, Bell says he’s “optimistic” that Padres GM Jed Hoyer will hold onto him. The Padres can keep Bell for 2011 even if they don't offer him an extension.
If the Padres decide to part with the big 33-year-old, they’d likely find a number of suitors. Bell posted a 1.93 ERA with 47 saves last year and made the All-Star team for the second consecutive season. Armed with a mid-90s fastball and a curve, Bell posted 11.1 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 last year, anchoring the Padres’ strong ‘pen.
Odds & Ends: Loux, Burrell, Dodgers, Trout
On this date six years ago, the Rangers lost Colby Lewis when the Tigers claimed him on waivers. Texas signed Lewis last offseason and the right-hander will take the hill tomorrow as he and the Rangers try to put away the Rays. Here are today's links…
- The Astros are no longer pursuing free agent pitching prospect Barret Loux, GM Ed Wade told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. The Marlins, Rangers, Cubs, Twins, Giants, Brewers, Phillies and Mariners have also scouted the 2010 first rounder.
- Padres CEO Jeff Moorad and GM Jed Hoyer told Tim Sullivan of the San Diego Union-Tribune that they wish the team had pursued Pat Burrell more aggressively early in the season.
- Dodgers president Dennis Mannion will leave the organization and owner Frank McCourt will take on a more active role with the team, according to MLB.com's Ken Gurnick.
- A scout told Jim Callis of Baseball America that comparisons between Mike Trout and Mickey Mantle are "actually pretty good." Trout, one of the game's top prospects, probably hasn't heard that one before (Twitter link).
- Indians GM Chris Antonetti promoted several members of his front office, as Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Halladay, Fielder, Mets
On this date two years ago, the Cubs exercised Rich Harden's $9MM option for 2009 after tests showed that his throwing shoulder was healthy. Harden made 26 starts with a 4.09 ERA, 10.9 K/9, and 4.2 BB/9 in 141 innings that year before joining the Rangers in the offseason. The 28-year-old battled through another injury plagued year in 2010, throwing just 92 innings with a 5.58 ERA, 7.3 K/9, and 6.3 BB/9 for Texas.
Harden might not be able to find a guaranteed Major League deal on the free agent market this winter, but I can guarantee that these links represent the best from around the blogosphere…
- Crashburn Alley re-lives Roy Halladay's playoff no-hitter, moment by moment.
- Meanwhile, Phoul Ballz spoke to some Blue Jays minor leaguers about how Doc's effort inspired them.
- The Nats Blog debates Halladay's Cy Young candidacy. Not that anyone asked me, but I consider him the frontrunner, and it's not particularly close either.
- Blogging From The Bleachers takes an in depth look at how Japanese pitchers have transitioned to MLB.
- The OC Baseball Council examines some potential destinations for Prince Fielder.
- U.S.S. Mariner looks at some free agent second base options for the Mariners.
- Amazin' Avenue reveals their John Hart-Rick Hahn-Chip Hale management plan.
- Blogging Mets hands out a final report card for the 2010 Mets.
- Waiting For Next Year compares how the Indians' roster was built to those of some postseason clubs.
- SD Sports Net wonders if Ryan Ludwick should be patrolling the Padres' outfield next season.
- Cubs Pack wonders what life will be like after Aramis Ramirez.
- The Outfield Ivy looks at some first base options for the Cubs next season.
- SPANdemonium lists the game's 50 more underrated prospects.
- Batter's Box names their top ten Blue Jays prospects.
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Signing Gonzalez “Doesn’t Appear To Be Practical”
The Padres will likely explore an extension with their star first baseman this offseason, but the team’s CEO isn’t optimistic about reaching a long-term agreement with Adrian Gonzalez. Jeff Moorad told Tim Sullivan of the San Diego Union-Tribune that it may not make sense for the Padres to keep Gonzalez after 2011.
“While we’d still love to have Adrian here long-term, it doesn’t appear to be practical from a financial standpoint,” Moorad said. “So I’m certainly not counting on that. But we’ll engage and see if there’s a deal that can be made."
Gonzalez will earn $5.5MM next year in the final year of his contract, assuming the Padres exercise their option. That’s a safe assumption since Gonzalez hit 31 homers this year and posted a .298/.393/.511 line in 692 plate appearances.
“At this point, I expect him to be on our roster next season,” Moorad said. “I think [GM Jed Hoyer is] committed to sit down with [agent] John Boggs at some point and I’m sure we’ll get a feel about Adrian’s view of the future.”
Moorad said the team’s payroll will likely be in the $40-50MM range, so paying Gonzalez market value (likely over $15MM per season) seems unrealistic at this point.
Managerial Notes: Porter, Samuel, Padres
As Marlins executive Larry Beinfest recently pointed out, it's a good time to be a managerial candidate in the major leagues. Here are the latest updates on the many openings around the game:
- The Pirates announced (on Twitter) that they interviewed Bo Porter for their vacancy today. The team has already interviewed Eric Wedge for the position.
- Chuck Finder of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that the Pirates seem likely to interview Juan Samuel as a managerial candidate.
- Samuel, who briefly managed the Orioles this year, has spoken informally to the Brewers about their managerial job and would like to be considered for it, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
- Padres pitching coach Darren Balsley is not looking or lobbying for a managerial job, according to Tim Sullivan of the San Diego Union-Tribune.