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NL East Notes: Wang, Rollins, Nunez, Capuano

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The Nationals have won nine of their last eleven games, including a four-game sweep of the Phillies.  They'll try to keep their hot streak alive tonight against the struggling Braves, who hold just a two-game lead over the Cardinals in the NL wild card race.  Some news from the NL East….

  • The Nationals are in the "preliminary stages" of negotiations with Chien-Ming Wang about an extension, Wang's agent Alan Nero tells MLB.com's Bill Ladson (Twitter link).
  • C.C. Sabathia thinks Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins may sign with the Giants in the offseason, reports Jon Heyman from Sports Illustrated (Twitter link).  Sabathia and Rollins are long-time friends and, as Heyman notes, Rollins was the first to predict that Sabathia would sign with the Yankees in the 2008-09 offseason.
  • The Marlins may have been unable to deal Leo Nunez at the trade deadline due to the ongoing saga of Nunez's true identity, reports Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.  Within that same link, Dan LeBatard is reporting that Major League Baseball (who must've been aware of Nunez's issues, as the Marlins were) nixed a deal involving Nunez last July.
  • Chris Capuano is interested in returning to the Mets next year but said he prefers to be a starting pitcher whenever he goes, reports Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.
  • Jose Reyes likes playing for the Mets but isn't sure how his free agency will play out this winter, reports Adam Rubin of ESPN New York.  "This is the only team that I played [for] so far in my whole career," Reyes said. "I feel comfortable here. I feel good with the ownership. I feel like we are family and stuff like that. At the same time, this is a business. And to be honest with you, I don't know what's going to happen. 
  • Davey Johnson wants the Nationals to add some outfield depth this winter, writes MLB.com's Bill Ladson.
  • Tyler Kepner of the New York Times explores the possibility that southpaw Mike Zagurski (dealt from the Phillies to the Diamondbacks earlier today) could end up returning to Philadelphia as the player to be named later in the deal, a rare "traded for himself" move.

Tim Lincecum Prefers Short-Term Deals

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They call Tim Lincecum the Freak for his unusual delivery, but the nickname may also apply when it comes to contract talks. While most players are eager to sign their first long-term deal, the Giants’ two-time Cy Young winner told Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle that he feels most comfortable on one or two-year contracts.

"It's just easier for me mentally not to have to put that kind of pressure on yourself," he said. "Not that you don't want to succeed, but when you're signed to a long-term deal, it's like saying, 'I'm going to live up to every expectation.' That's why I like going year to year, so I can improve on it and not sit on what I've done."

Lincecum still has two years of arbitration eligibility after this season and he says he’d be open to a two-year deal similar to the one that bought out his first two seasons of arbitration eligibility. He says he likes the two-year, $23MM contract he signed before the 2010 season, since it allowed him to move gradually through the arbitration process. But if the Giants make an aggressive long-term offer, the Beverly Hills Sports Council client will listen.

"It all depends on how they come after me," he told Schulman. "If it's aggressive, obviously I want to take that into consideration and talk about it with my agent and see what he thinks is good. I haven't dismissed anything."

Lincecum says he isn’t sure how he’ll feel in three or five years and added that he isn’t worried about the Giants’ offense, which currently ranks last in the National League in runs scored.

When MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes previewed Lincecum’s arbitration case in May, the agents he surveyed suggested a 2012 salary in the $19-22MM range would be fair assuming a “normal season.” The 27-year-old right-hander has a 2.59 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 212 innings and though he won’t win the Cy Young Award he has set himself up for $20MM-plus in 2012 and even more in 2013. In other words, Lincecum gets as much guaranteed money going year to year as many pitchers obtain on multiyear deals in free agency.

NL West Notes: Kemp, Sanchez, Street, Villalona

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The first-place Diamondbacks had a magic number of 2 to clinch the NL West entering Thursday's action and could pop the champagne as soon as Friday. Here are some notes regarding three of the division's other ballclubs:

  • Dodgers center fielder Matt Kemp, echoing what his agent said recently, told Beto Duran of ESPN 710 radio in Los Angeles that he hasn't yet begun discussing a possible contract extension with the club but he'd like to spend the rest of his career there (Twitter link). Kemp is eligible for free agency after 2012.
  • Giants lefty Jonathan Sanchez won't return in 2011 and may have thrown his last pitch for the Lads, writes Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News. The Giants may non-tender Sanchez, or, if they do go through the arbitration process with him, could decide to trade him for a bat, according to Baggarly. Sanchez, 28, dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness this season, making just 19 starts, while earning $4.8MM. Sanchez does possess a big arm, so he won't have trouble finding a new job if and when the Giants decide to move on.
  • The Rockies will seek a trade partner to offload closer Huston Street, perhaps in return for a starting pitcher, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post. However, Renck notes it won't be easy to shop Street considering the depth of relief pitching on the free-agent market, so he could just as easily return to Colorado in 2012 (Twitter links).
  • Giants first base prospect Angel Villalona, who recently had murder charges against him dropped in his native Dominican Republic, has reportedly changed agents from Boras Corp. to Para Sports, tweets Baggarly. Para Sports represents Orioles pitcher Alfredo Simon, as Baggarly notes, who also had murder charges against him dropped in the Dominican.

NL West Notes: D’Backs, Giants, Dodgers, Ramirez

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The Padres fired GM Jack McKeon on this date in 1990. Now the Marlins' skipper, McKeon is nearly 81 and still going strong. Here's the latest from his former division…

  • ESPN.com’s Keith Law says D'Backs executive Jerry Dipoto deserves significant credit for his team's success, just as former GM Josh Byrnes and current GM Kevin Towers do. Dipoto steered the team through the 2010 trade deadline, acquiring Daniel Hudson among others. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes spoke to Dipoto last month for our GM Candidates series.
  • The spirit of last year's World Champion Giants has been lost to "exhausting expectations, demoralizing injuries, down years and a weekly reality show," Tim Brown writes at Yahoo. 
  • Bill Burke, who submitted a $1.2 billion bid for the Dodgers in late August, told Bill Shaikin of the LA Times that owner Frank McCourt did not respond to the offer. It expired yesterday, but Burke offered McCourt an extension. An attorney for McCourt dismissed the offer as a publicity stunt earlier this month, which makes a deal seem highly unlikely.
  • Troy Renck of the Denver Post has heard that the Rockies aren't looking at Aramis Ramirez (Twitter link). Ramirez said yesterday that he has probably played his last game as a Cub.

Quick Hits: Epstein, Ozzie, Beltran

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Links for Tuesday, as the Red Sox and Braves try to fend off several wild card challengers…

  • Red Sox GM Theo Epstein failed to accumulate the necessary pitching depth, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  Epstein has become a popular target this month, but the criticism holds more water for me if the author was pointing out the team's depth issues before the season or in July.  Morosi, to his credit, questioned Boston's rotation in April.
  • On a similar note, the John Lackey contract looks ugly right now.  But it wasn't regarded that way when Lackey signed in December of 2009.  In fact, ESPN's Jayson Stark did a poll of "20 wise baseball men" prior to the 2010 season, and Lackey's contract was voted the best signing of the offseason (right before Chone Figgins).  
  • White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen hopes to learn about his future before leaving for a trip to Spain in early October, he told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.  Guillen has a year left on his contract, so the White Sox don't necessarily have to follow that timeline.
  • Scott Boras will have lunch with the Giants' Carlos Beltran today to determine the right fielder's free agency goals, he told the Associated Press yesterday at the Moneyball premiere.
  • ESPN's Buster Olney tells stories of how Padres GM Randy Smith came to acquire Trevor Hoffman from the Marlins, and how the Yankees considered trading Mariano Rivera before they realized what they had.

Jeremy Affeldt’s Option & Free Agent Prospects

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If the Giants allow Jeremy Affeldt to hit free agency this offseason instead of picking up the veteran left-hander’s $5MM option for 2012, his job prospects will probably be promising. Teams are always looking for southpaws to use out of the bullpen, Affeldt’s numbers are strong and the competition is weak.

Affeldt, whose season ended with a kitchen-related injury to his non-pitching hand, finished the year with a 2.63 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 62.1% ground ball rate in 61 2/3 innings this year. Those numbers reminded me of Scott Downs, the Angels left-hander who posted a 2.64 ERA with 7.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 57.8% ground ball rate in 61 1/3 innings a year ago with the Blue Jays. The result for Downs: a three-year deal worth $15MM despite the Type A designation that hinders the earning potential of so many free agent relievers.

Even if San Francisco offers Affeldt arbitration, teams won’t have to surrender a draft pick to sign the projected Type B free agent. At 32 years of age, Affeldt remains relatively young – three years younger than Downs and markedly younger than most of the other free agent southpaws.

Peripheral stats such as xFIP (3.37), SIERA (2.88) and average fastball velocity (93.1 mph) all suggest that Affeldt’s impressive 2.63 ERA is no fluke. And while some lefty relievers post eye-catching stats because their managers barely let them face right-handers, Affeldt can hold off right-handed hitters, too (7.4 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 57.1% ground ball rate).

The competition in terms of free agent left-handed relievers doesn’t figure to be strong. There’s Darren Oliver, a 40-year-old who could very well cost a draft pick. Affeldt’s teammate, Javier Lopez, is a capable pitcher who walks one batter per two innings. Mike Gonzalez of the Rangers will draw interest, though he has had an up and down season. And George Sherrill has impressive stats, but he can’t be trusted against right-handed hitters. In other words, the free agent market is unimpressive.

Affeldt is a veteran of multiyear contracts, having signed one two-year deal with the Giants in 2008 and another one in 2010. If San Francisco turns down its 2012 option, Affeldt’s representatives at Moye Sports Associates will have a strong case for a third multiyear deal in free agency. Affeldt, the Giants' 2011 nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award, would enter a market that won’t offer much in terms of free agent left-handers. Don’t be surprised if the Giants decline Affeldt’s option and he goes on to sign a multiyear deal for the third time in his career.

Quick Hits: Pirates, Cubs, Werth, Byrdak

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The Cardinals won and the Braves lost, so only 2.5 games separate the two clubs in the National League Wild Card race. Here's the latest news from around MLB…

  • Pirates GM Neal Huntington didn't say whether he intends to offer arbitration to Ross Ohlendorf this offseason, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Ohlendorf would earn a raise from his current $2.025MM salary if the Pirates tender him a contract this winter.
  • The Cubs told scouting director Tim Wilken that he'll be back in 2012, according to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. There had been some rumblings that Wilken would receive a four-year extension like the one director of player personnel Oneri Fleita obtained, but Wilken will return on a one-year deal.
  • Giants officials acknowledged to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News that it will be hard to bring back both Jeremy Affeldt ($5MM option) and Javier Lopez (free agent) next year. The two left-handers could hit free agency this offseason.
  • Jayson Werth told Bill Ladson of MLB.com that he still believes that the Nationals are headed for success. The outfielder hasn't lived up to his $126MM contract so far, but he says he has found his swing and regained his composure.
  • Mike Mosa, the agent for Tim Byrdak, told MLBTR's Tim Dierkes that Byrdak's decision to sign an extension with the Mets had to do with the team's willingness to include an opt-out in his deal for 2011 (Twitter link).
  • Dave Cameron of FanGraphs explains that serious analysts don't believe "that awards voting should be done according to an ordinal ranking" of the wins above replacement statistic. WAR is a tool that guides baseball fans, not an absolute statement about value or ability.
  • In this week's edition of Ask BA, Jim Callis of Baseball America explains that he doubts we'll ever see an international draft because of all the logistics that would be involved. Commissioner Bud Selig has long supported a worldwide draft, which will come up during this round of collective bargaining.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Cody Ross

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Cody Ross would have been better off hitting free agency last year, after the Giants won the World Series and Ross hit five postseason home runs on his way to winning the NLCS MVP. It's not that his season numbers are that different this year, but Ross would have had some buzz if he had hit free agency after his strong finish and postseason heroics in 2010. This year, San Francisco will in all likelihood miss the playoffs, so there's no way for Ross to supplement his pedestrian season stats.

Cody Ross

The 30-year-old outfielder has a .240/.325/.405 line with 14 homers in 461 plate appearances for the Giants this year, not far off of the .269/.322/.413 line and 14 homers he had for the Marlins and Giants a year ago. Yet Ross no longer seems critical to the Giants’ success, as he did a year ago.

To his credit, Ross raised his walk rate to a career-best 10.6% in 2011 and played all three outfield positions, marking the fourth time in the past five seasons that he has appeared in left, center and right.

Though he hoped for a long-term extension with the Giants as recently as this spring, reality has since set in. The Giants seem unlikely to offer Ross a raise from his current $6.3MM salary or sign off on a multiyear deal, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. 

If the Giants are indeed hesitant to pay Ross more than $6.3MM, they may decide against offering arbitration after the season. Ross projects as a Type B free agent, which means San Francisco would obtain a top pick in next year’s draft if the New Mexico native declines their offer and signs elsewhere. 

Given Ross’ free agent prospects, he could receive encouragement from his representatives at SFX to accept should the Giants offer arbitration. If they don’t offer arbitration, he would appear to be in line for a one-year Major League deal on the open market. He has had enough success in his career, particularly against left-handers (career .912 OPS), for teams to guarantee him a few million dollars and a roster spot, but his luster has disappeared, so a multiyear deal would now be a coup for Ross and his agency.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

NL West Notes: Rockies, Stewart, Darnell, Giants

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Some NL West notes for Sunday evening..

Quick Hits: Astros, Yankees, Mets, Pujols, Fielder

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Some links on this Saturday afternoon..

  • Astros GM Ed Wade isn't sure yet if pitching coach Doug Brocail will return next year, writes MLB.com's Brian McTaggart.  Brocail retired after the 2009 season and was working as a special assistant to Wade this year when he took over as pitching coach when Brad Arnsberg was let go in June.
  • Both the Yankees and Mets will have to start making some critical decisions about which prospects they need to protect ahead of the Rule V draft this winter, writes Tim Bontemps of the New York Post.  It seems likely that the Mets will roll the dice and leave once-promising right-hander Brad Holt unprotected while the Bombers could leave switch-pitcher Pat Venditte exposed.
  • With Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder both hitting the free agent market this winter, the battle between agents Dan Lozano and Scott Boras will be fun to watch, writes Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
  • Giants managing partner and CEO Bill Neukom wanted the team to take a more patient approach to hitting when he took over but Scott Ostler of the San Francisco Chronicle says that never came to be.
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