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Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Rangers Expected To Pursue Carlos Rodón In Free Agency

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The Rangers will be looking to add some pitching this offseason and evidently aren’t ruling out a run at the top of the market. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports that the club is planning a “hard push” for left-hander Carlos Rodón.

Rodón, 30 in December, isn’t technically a free agent just yet. Prior to the 2022 campaign, he signed a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants. However, that deal allows Rodón to opt-out after the first year of the deal, which he is widely expected to do. The only reason he had to settle for a short-term deal in the first place was because of health concerns.

Rodón only threw 42 1/3 innings combined over 2019 and 2020 due to various injuries. In 2021, he was healthy enough to get to 132 2/3 frames on the year, but seemed to run out of gas as the season went along. Due to those durability concerns, he settled for a short pact with the Giants, but one that would allow him to return to the open market as long as he pitched a minimum of 110 innings.

That plan has gone exactly as envisioned for the southpaw, as he stayed healthy all year, making 31 starts and logging a personal-best 178 innings. The added quantity didn’t subtract from the quality either. He registered a 2.88 ERA with a 33.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 34.1% ground ball rate. He was worth 6.2 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, the second-highest such tally among all MLB pitchers this year, trailing only Aaron Nola. Based on that excellent campaign, he’s sure to opt out of the $22.5MM remaining on his deal and return to the open market.

While that strong showing means Rodón will become a free agent, it also means he will get paid. He figures to be at the top of the free agent starting pitching market, alongside fellow opt-out holders Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander. Those other two hurlers are older than Rodón and will be limited to shorter contracts with high average annual values, something akin to the Max Scherzer contract from last year. Rodón, on the other hand, will be more analogous to Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman. Ray and Gausman were both free agents a year ago, with Ray going into his age-30 season like Rodón, while Gausman was going into his age-31 campaign. Rodón has a case that he’s as good as, or perhaps better than, both of them. Here are their platform years…

  • Rodón: 178 innings, 33.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 34.1% ground ball rate, 6.5% HR/FB, 2.88 ERA, 2.83 SIERA, 2.25 FIP, 6.2 fWAR.
  • Ray: 193 1/3 innings, 32.1% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, 37.2% ground ball rate, 15.9% HR/FB, 2.84 ERA, 3.21 SIERA, 3.69 FIP, 3.9 fWAR.
  • Gausman: 192 innings, 29.3% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate, 41.9% ground ball rate, 11.3% HR/FB, 2.81 ERA, 3.42 SIERA, 3.00 FIP, 4.8 fWAR.

Rodón issues slightly more walks but also got more strikeouts and allowed far fewer home runs. Though the ERAs are very close, advanced metrics prefer Rodón’s profile and give him the nod. Teams interested in signing Rodón won’t look just at his most recent season, of course, with his past injuries still counting for something. However, Ray and Gausman also had warts on their respective resumes, with Ray not pitching so well over 2018-2020 and Gausman struggling in 2019.

Ray was given a qualifying offer a year ago but Gausman was ineligible as he had already received one in his career. Both pitchers ended up receiving fairly similar contracts, as Ray signed with the Mariners for $115MM over five years, while Gausman signed with the Blue Jays for $110MM, also over five years. Like Ray, Rodón will receive and reject a qualifying offer, though it shouldn’t have a significant effect on his market.

For the Rangers, they spent big on free agency last year, giving huge deals to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Though those two players had fine seasons, the team still disappointed, largely due to their pitching. The team’s starters registered a 4.63 ERA, ranking them 25th out of the 30 MLB teams. Advanced metrics like FIP and SIERA weren’t much kinder, coming in at 4.42 and 4.36, respectively. That’s part of the reason why the club ended up going 68-94 on the year.

One of the few pitchers to perform well for the Rangers this year was Martín Pérez, though he’s slated for free agency. There’s apparently some mutual interest in a reunion for next year, though nothing is set in stone there yet. That leaves the Rangers with a rotation consisting of Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and a few holes. There are some internal candidates to fill those holes, though none of them had strong campaigns in 2022. Glenn Otto, Cole Ragans, Taylor Hearn and Spencer Howard each made at least eight starts for the Rangers in 2022, though all three of them posted ERAs around 5.00 or higher.

Improving the rotation for 2023 is a fairly sensible move for the Rangers as they look to put together a more competitive squad going forward. General manager Chris Young has indicated that the club will increase payroll this year, which will apparently allow them to consider spending at the very top of the free agent pitching market. The club ran out an Opening Day payroll of $142MM in 2022, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their outlay for 2023 is currently at $99MM, per Roster Resource, though that figure doesn’t include salaries for arbitration-eligible players or a $6MM option for Jose LeClerc. That LeClerc option and the arb class should get the Rangers up to around $115MM or so, leaving almost $30MM to work with before they get to their 2022 number. How much they actually have to spend will depend how much higher the payroll is expected to climb this year.

The Rangers will surely have competition for Rodón’s services, with just about every team with designs on contention looking to upgrade their starting rotation. Since he will be one of the best hurlers available, he figures to be quite popular this winter. The Giants have already expressed an interest in keeping him in San Francisco, for instance. Whether the Rangers ultimately sign him specifically or not, it is likely exciting news for fans of the club that they are willing to pair last year’s spending spree on position players by being similarly aggressive on the pitching front this year.

Eduardo Nunez Announces Retirement

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Former major league infielder Eduardo Nunez announced his retirement from professional baseball today in a post to his Instagram. “Today, it is with mixed emotions that I officially announce my retirement from professional baseball,” Nunez wrote. “I had the opportunity of a lifetime to play the game I love for more than a decade while competing for five amazing MLB teams.”

Nunez, 35, played for the Yankees, Twins, Giants, Red Sox, and Mets during a career that spanned 11 seasons in the majors. His last season in the majors was 2020, when he appeared in two games for the Mets. He played in the Chinese Professional Baseball League in 2021 and did not play professionally during the 2022 season.

He made his major league debut with the Yankees in 2010, the first of four seasons spent in a utility role in their uniform. During his time in the Bronx, Nunez slashed .267/.313/.379 (86 wRC+) in 270 games while logging time at second base, third base, shortstop, and both outfield corners. Nunez’s career as a member of the Yankees ended when he was traded to Minnesota in 2014, where his career would begin to improve, with the highlight of his Twins tenure being the 2016 season that earned Nunez not only his only career All-Star appearance, but a deadline trade to the Giants. That season, he slashed .288/.325/.432 (101 wRC+) while splitting time between second base, third base, and shortstop.

Nunez would remain with the Giants until the following year’s trade deadline, when he would be swapped to the Red Sox. He re-signed with Boston during the 2017-18 offseason, and split time between second and third base while batting .265/.289/.388 (78 wRC+) in 127 games as the Red Sox won 108 games en route to a World Series championship. Nunez remained with Boston in 2019, appearing in 60 games before being designated for assignment in July.

Altogether, Nunez spent parts of 17 seasons playing professional baseball and batted .276/.310/.404 (90 wRC+) in his 3008 major league plate appearances, collecting 776 hits, 142 stolen bases, and 1136 total bases along the way. MLBTR wishes Nunez the best in his future pursuits now that his playing career has officially come to a close.

Jharel Cotton Elects Free Agency

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Giants right-hander Jharel Cotton recently cleared waivers and elected free agency, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area.

Cotton, 31 in January, spent most of the season bouncing on and off the Twins’ roster, frequently going unclaimed on waivers and sticking with Minnesota. However, the Giants swooped in for an interception in September, claiming Cotton for the final few weeks of the season. Between the two clubs, he tossed 43 innings this year with a 3.56 ERA, 21.5% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate and 29.4% ground ball rate.

The Giants, like many clubs at this time of year, are facing a roster crunch. They have placed numerous players on the 60-day injured list throughout the season, which those players not occupying a roster spot while on the shelf. However, there’s no IL between the World Series and Spring Training, meaning they will soon have many players needing to retake their spots and leading to some cuts.

Cotton was eligible for arbitration and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to get a raise to $1.1MM. The Giants evidently weren’t planning on tendering him a contract and placed him on waivers instead. Any player with three years of service time or a previous career outright has the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. Cotton qualifies on both counts and will now return to the open market.

19 Players Elect Free Agency

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Players hit minor league free agency on a daily basis during the postseason, as opposed to major league free agents who hit free agency following the World Series when their contracts expire. On Thursday, MLBTR covered 15 players who elected minor league free agency, and we will continue to provide occasional updates as players continue to hit the open market, as noted on the MiLB.com transactions log.

If a player is not on their organization’s 40-man roster at the end of the season, he will hit minor league free agency as long as he has at least 3 years of MLB service time, been assigned outright more than once in his career, and/or has played in the minor leagues for parts of seven or more seasons. Everyone on today’s list is part of that group of players, and most will search for another minor league deal this offseason, though a few may manage to latch onto a major league club and secure a bench or bullpen spot entering the 2023 season.

Infielders:

Outfielders:

Pitchers:

Giants Hire Pete Putila As General Manager

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The Giants announced Monday night they’ve hired Pete Putila as their new general manager. Putila, formerly an Astros assistant GM, steps in as the #2 in the front office hierarchy under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. Previous GM Scott Harris departed a few weeks ago to take over baseball operations with the Tigers.

Zaidi informed reporters last week the team was hoping to have a GM in place by early November. San Francisco struck far earlier than that, nabbing the well-regarded Putila away from Houston. “Being where we are and facing a big offseason, I think it’s going to be a great thing for us to have some fresh perspectives in the organization,” Zaidi said at the time. “A new general manager could certainly bring a fresh perspective on our roster, player development and evaluation philosophies.”

A West Virginia graduate, Putila spent more than a decade in the Houston front office. Originally hired as an intern in 2011, he quickly moved through the front office under former GM Jeff Lunhow. He spent a fair amount of time working in the build-up of the Houston farm system during the Astros rebuild, earning a promotion to director of player development by 2016. Towards the end of the 2019 campaign, Putila earned a bump to assistant GM.

The following offseason, the Astros parted ways with Lunhow in the wake of the public revelation of the extent of the 2017 sign-stealing operation. New GM James Click kept Putila in a high-ranking front office position, however, reflecting the value a pair of baseball operations leaders placed on his input.

Putila was a candidate for the Giants GM search back in 2019. San Francisco ended up poaching Harris from the Cubs front office that time around, but Putila apparently made a favorable impression on Zaidi and his high-ranking staff at the time. He also garnered some consideration in the Pirates GM search that winter, but Pittsburgh eventually tabbed Ben Cherington to lead baseball ops.

It’s a pivotal offseason for the Giants, who disappointed with an 81-81 season this year. Last winter, San Francisco mostly focused on retaining the core of a team that claimed 107 wins and an NL West title in 2021, aside from replacing Kevin Gausman with Carlos Rodón in free agency. There figures to be a fair bit more turnover this winter, with Zaidi on the record about his desire to get a younger, more athletic position player group. Putila will step into the biggest role of his career, helping Zaidi oversee that likely aggressive winter.

Giants Reportedly Planning To Decline Evan Longoria’s Option

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The Giants hold a $13MM club option over third baseman Evan Longoria — the final possible season on a six-year, $100MM guaranteed deal that Longoria originally signed with the Rays. Because of a hefty $5MM buyout on the option, it’s actually “only” a net $8MM decision for the upcoming season. Still, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that the Giants are planning to opt for the buyout, which would make Longoria a free agent for the first time in his career.

That doesn’t necessarily close the books on Longoria’s time in San Francisco, however. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said last week there’s “absolutely” a place for Longoria on next year’s Giants, even as the team strives to get younger on the whole. Per the San Francisco Chronicle’s John Shea, Longoria is open to negotiating a return at a lesser rate. That meshes with Nightengale’s report, which indicates that Longoria’s preferences in free agency would be San Francisco, Tampa Bay or Arizona.

With the decision at a net $8MM, simply picking up Longoria’s option would be plenty defensible. Despite celebrating his 37th birthday just this past Friday, he remains a productive hitter, having enjoyed a renaissance with the bat over the past couple seasons. In 589 trips to the plate dating back to Opening Day 2021, Longoria has turned in a .252/.336/.466 batting line with 27 homers, 30 doubles, a 25.6% strikeout rate and a 10.5% walk rate. That said, his exit velocity, hard-hit rate, strikeout rate and walk rate in 2022 all took a step back from their 2021 levels, and this year’s overall offensive output was down a bit from last year.

As one would expect for a player moving into his late 30s, Longoria has also seen his defensive ratings begin to slip. Early in his career, he was one of baseball’s best defensive players at any position, and Longoria managed to sustain slightly above-average grades at the hot corner even in his mid-30s, posting positive Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average marks as recently as 2020. In 2022, he posted a -4 DRS mark and was a scratch defender, per both UZR and OAA.

Even with the slight downturn in 2022 production on both sides of the ball, Longoria remained productive with the bat. He could be particularly adept in a more limited role that shields him from top-tier righties but gives him plenty of time against left-handed pitching. Over the past two seasons, Longoria has tormented southpaws with a .295/.379/.536 batting line in 211 trips to the plate. His .229/.307/.429 line against same-handed pitchers is more pedestrian but still roughly league average output.

A more sheltered role could have the added benefit of limiting Longoria’s reps slightly in an effort to keep him healthy. Zaidi alluded to that last week, rhetorically asking “one of the questions for us with Longo, and it’s a question for him as well, at this point in his career, what’s the appropriate workload and what’s the appropriate role?” (link via Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News). Longoria has spent a notable chunk of time on the injured list in each of the past two seasons, appearing in just over half the Giants games (170 of 324).

Assuming Longoria does head back to the open market, he’ll be one of the better players available in the third base class. Nolan Arenado would obviously be the prize of the position if he opted out of the final five years of his deal with St. Louis. Otherwise, the class is comprised of veterans who could be brought back on team options (i.e. Longoria, Justin Turner and Josh Harrison) and multi-positional types (like Brandon Drury and Jace Peterson).

Zaidi: Giants To Pursue Starting Pitcher, Hire GM This Offseason

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The Giants entered the 2022 campaign with high hopes after winning 107 games last year, but the team’s efforts to compete for a playoff spot fell short. San Francisco finished with a .500 record and now turns its attention to next season. There’s no question the Giants will attempt to reload and make another push for contention this winter.

San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with the media this afternoon to discuss the team’s goals for the upcoming offseason (links via Evan Webeck of the Bay Area News Group and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle). Zaidi indicated the club would bolster its starting rotation, which could see the departure of ace Carlos Rodón. The star southpaw signed a two-year guarantee last offseason, but he triggered an opt out provision in the deal by exceeding 110 innings this summer.

There’s no question Rodón will bypass the second season of that contract, as he and his representatives at the Boras Corporation are going to search for a longer-term deal. The 29-year-old avoided the injured list and threw 178 innings of 2.88 ERA ball, striking batters out at an elite 33.4% clip. He’s sure to pick up some Cy Young votes for a second straight season and could top the $110MM – $115MM guarantees secured by the likes of Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman last winter.

Zaidi noted he “fully expects” Rodón to opt out but again suggested there’s mutual interest in keeping him in the Bay Area. “I’m sure we’re going to be talking to Scott Boras about bringing him back. The feedback from Carlos and from Scott is he enjoyed being here, he enjoyed pitching in our park,” the Giants president told reporters. Locking up Rodón this time around would certainly require the largest investment the club has made in a free agent hurler since Zaidi took over. San Francisco hasn’t gone beyond the $44MM guarantee they awarded Rodón last winter for any pitcher during his leadership tenure. Anthony DeSclafani, who signed a three-year, $36MM deal last offseason, is the only pitcher to whom this front office has guaranteed three years.

On the issue of contract length, Zaidi indicated he wouldn’t categorically rule out a long-term investment. He generally indicated the front office expects to have some leeway from ownership regarding payroll. If Rodón doesn’t return, then San Francisco is likely to bring in another rotation piece from the outside. “I would anticipate us being in the market for at least one starter. Maybe it is just one. But at least one.”

That pitcher would join Logan Webb, Alex Wood, Alex Cobb and DeSclafani in the season-opening starting five. Webb had a second consecutive very strong season and looks like a top-end starter. Wood and Cobb each look like above-average starters at their best, and Cobb in particular is coming off a strong first year in SF. Each of Wood and Cobb has had a litany of injuries throughout their careers, however, while DeSclafani was limited to just five appearances in 2022 by an ankle injury that necessitated surgery.

San Francisco got solid fill-in work from right-hander Jakob Junis, who took on a larger than expected role in the wake of DeSclafani’s injury. Over 23 appearances (17 starts), Junis posted a 4.42 ERA with a 20.5% strikeout rate and a tiny 5.2% walk percentage. That earned him a spot on next year’s roster for his final season of arbitration eligibility, but Zaidi said today the club prefers him in a long relief role. While he’d certainly be capable of stepping back into the rotation if needed, he won’t be given that job out of the gate.

One pitcher whom Zaidi suggested could get an early rotation look is top prospect Kyle Harrison. The 21-year-old southpaw pitched to a 2.71 ERA with an incredible 39.8% strikeout rate in 113 frames split between High-A and Double-A. Along the way, he cemented himself as one of the most promising minor league arms in the sport. The former third-rounder did walk a higher than ideal 10.5% of opponents, but he’s shown plenty of promise with regards to missing bats. While Harrison doesn’t have to be added to the 40-man roster until the end of the 2023 campaign, Zaidi name-checked him as a potential rotation option “relatively early in the season.” He’s not likely to break camp with the team but could be an option midseason if he shows well in the upper minors.

On the position player side, the Giants have made clear they plan to get younger and look for more athletic players capable of improving a defense that was MLB’s third-worst at turning balls in play into outs. That’d seem to point towards parting ways with the corner infield tandem of Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria. Belt is an impending free agent, while the Giants hold a $13MM option on Longoria’s services versus a $5MM buyout.

Zaidi kept the window open today to retaining both players. He suggested Longoria, in particular, could benefit from a reduced role that didn’t require playing the vast majority of games at third base. While Zaidi didn’t specifically address the option decision, it’s hard to envision San Francisco bringing Longoria back at that price — particularly after they re-signed Wilmer Flores to a two-year deal last month. Still, it seems the front office is open to the possibility of keeping him around on a lower-cost deal in free agency on the heels of a .244/.315/.451 showing across 89 games.

Amidst what’s likely to be a fair bit of roster turnover, Zaidi also plans to tab a new top lieutenant. Previous general manager Scott Harris departed to take over baseball operations with the Tigers. San Francisco has proceeded without a GM for the past few weeks, but Zaidi said today that finding a replacement for Harris is a priority. He expressed his hope a new GM hire will be finalized by the General Manager’s meetings, which typically take place in mid-November. Zaidi will retain overall control of the roster, but the new GM will be his second-in-command and a pivotal piece of the front office.

34 Players Become Free Agents

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The Wild Card round of the 2022 postseason begins today, but for the majority of teams and players, the offseason is now underway. With that will come plenty of roster formalities, including veteran players who’ve been outrighted off their respective teams’ rosters reaching minor league free agency. This week, there have been 34 such instances throughout the league, per the transactions log at MiLB.com.

None of these are a surprise, to be clear. Any player who is not on his team’s 40-man roster at season’s end but has three-plus years of Major League service time, multiple career outright assignments and/or seven-plus seasons in the minors has the right to elect free agency. Everyone in today’s group of players falls under that umbrella. The majority of the group will likely find minor league deals over the winter, although a few of the players in question could potentially find a big league deal as a bench piece or middle-inning reliever.

There will be several more waves of players of this ilk, and we’ll make note of them in bunches over the coming weeks as we await the launch of Major League free agency, when all unsigned players with at least six years of Major League service time will reach the open market. For now, here’s the first of what will likely be several waves of newly minted minor league free agents:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Giants Place Evan Longoria On IL With Thumb Fracture

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The Giants announced a series of roster moves prior to tonight’s game, with third baseman Evan Longoria being placed on the injured list due to a thumb fracture. Left-hander Thomas Szapucki was also placed on the injured list, with a hip strain being the culprit in his case. To take their spots on the active roster, outfielder Bryce Johnson was recalled while left-hander Andrew Vasquez had his contract selected. To make room on the 40-man roster for Vasquez, lefty Alex Wood was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Longoria suffered his injury yesterday when attempting to field a ground ball. X-rays revealed a fracture, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, which will finish Longoria’s season. The veteran had another strong year at the plate, hitting .244/.315/.451, production that was 15% above league average by measure of wRC+. However, various injuries limited him to just 89 games on the year, as he previously went on the IL due to hand surgery, an oblique strain and a hamstring strain.

Going forward, it remains to be seen what the future holds for Longoria. He is in the final guaranteed year of the huge extension he signed with the Rays back in 2012. There is a club option for 2023, though Longoria has at least considered retirement, discussing the matter with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle back in June.

After the IL placement was announced today, Longoria spoke to the media about his future, with Slusser and Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic among those to relay the information on Twitter. He says that his wife and kids want him to continue playing in 2023 and that his first choice would be to return to the Giants. The option for next year comes with a $13MM base salary and $5MM buyout, though Longoria says he’s open to renegotiating the terms if the team wants him back. The club’s president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has already publicly spoken about a desire to run out a younger roster next year, which would seemingly be a point against bringing back Longoria, who turns 37 in a few days. However, if Longoria is willing to accept a lower salary, perhaps there is a price point where it makes sense for both sides to reunite. The surgery comes with a recovery time of about 4-6 weeks, per Slusser, meaning Longoria should have plenty of time to recover before Spring Training.

As for Vasquez, 29, he began the year with the Blue Jays but subsequently joined the Phillies and Giants on waiver claims before being outrighted about a month ago. He threw 6 2/3 innings with the Jays earlier this year but has otherwise been relegated to the minor leagues, pitching very well on the whole. In 32 1/3 innings in the minors on the year, he has a 2.23 ERA, 34.9% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate. He has less than a year of MLB service time and could be retained for next year if he holds onto his roster spot through the winter.

As for Wood, this today’s transfer is a mere formality as it had already been reported that he wouldn’t be returning this season.

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