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Giants Continuing Rodon Pursuit Even After Manaea Deal

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The Giants’ agreement with lefty Sean Manaea appeared to give them a full rotation, but Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that even after guaranteeing Manaea $25MM over the next two years (with an opt-out after year one), San Francisco remains engaged with Rodon and agent Scott Boras about a potential reunion.

Manaea, 31 in February, can join Logan Webb, Alex Wood, Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani in comprising a prototypical five-man rotation, but there ought to be room for Rodon on the roster even with that quintet in place. That’s true both because Rodon is a clear upgrade over the majority (arguably all five) of those in-house arms, and also because the internal group comes with a fair bit of injury risk and health uncertainty.

DeSclafani, for instance, was limited to just 19 innings this past season, thanks to a tendon injury in his ankle that eventually required surgical repair. Each of Wood, Cobb and Webb made at least 26 starts, but Cobb and Wood also have lengthy injury histories. Cobb pitched just 158 total innings from 2019-21, owing to groin, back and wrist strains. Wood has made 26 starts in consecutive seasons now, but he pitched just 12 2/3 innings in 2020 and just 35 2/3 innings in 2019 due to back and shoulder injuries. Even Webb, who worked a team-high 192 1/3 innings in 2022, missed a few weeks in 2021 while battling a minor shoulder strain.

No team can be realistically expected to navigate an entire 162-game season with only five starters. While the Giants have some depth with swingman Jakob Junis and minor leaguers Sean Hjelle, Thomas Szapucki, Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn all on the 40-man roster, they also have ample payroll space to make a Rodon-sized splash and figure out the allotment of innings at a later date. Roster Resource projects a $151MM payroll for the upcoming season and a luxury-tax ledger that’s a bit higher ($168.3MM) but nowhere near the first tier of penalization, which begins at $233MM in 2023.

Rodon was reported earlier in the offseason to be seeking a six-year deal worth more $30MM-plus on an annual basis, and Slusser more recently reported that he and Boras have been seeking at least seven years. What’s not clear is whether that shift in length of desired contract comes with a shift in the per-year asking price. We’ve seen teams this offseason increasingly show a willingness to stretch contracts to greater lengths as a means of tamping down AAV. Clubs had been moving away from longer-term, lower-AAV deals for some time — Bryce Harper being a notable exception — instead showing a preference for shorter-term deals at high annual values. That hasn’t been the case this winter, with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Nimmo and Jacob deGrom all signing lengthier deals than expected but at lesser annual rates of pay than their highest-paid peers at their respective positions.

Put more simply, if Rodon and Boras set out seeking $180-200MM in total guarantees this winter but were having difficulty finding that, it’s at least possible that the shift toward a deal of seven-plus years in length might be more about reaching that $180MM-plus benchmark than about now seeking seven years at $30MM-plus per season. A seven-year deal worth $185MM, as a purely speculative example, wouldn’t line up with the previously reported AAV target for Rodon but would ensure his place among the ten highest-compensated free agent pitchers in MLB history.

Of course, anything in that vicinity would still shatter most industry expectations heading into the offseason. Two months ago, the most common question regarding Rodon was if he’d done enough to secure a sixth guaranteed year or would need to “settle” for a five-year contract. While reports of Rodon pursuing six, seven or even more years at or near the $30MM AAV threshold don’t serve as a guarantee that he’ll eventually reach those heights, they still represent a departure from where his market was expected to land.

In many ways, that’s a microcosm of the free-agent market at large since the offseason ended. Teams have been willing to spend far more freely than in recent winters, as last March’s collective bargaining agreement assured five years of labor peace and also gave front offices and owners clarity on where the luxury-tax thresholds will sit for the foreseeable future.

Beyond Rodon, the Giants are also known to be keenly interested in shortstop Carlos Correa — their top target after missing on free-agent outfielder Aaron Judge. Whether they’re willing to pony up and make commitments to both Rodon and Correa isn’t clear, though it’d certainly register as a surprise, as that pairing could wind up costing something in the range of $450-500MM combined.

Giants Not Currently Considering Chris Bassitt

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TODAY: Bassitt isn’t currently in the Giants’ plans, as Slusser tweets that a pursuit of the right-hander is “not in the cards at the moment.”

DECEMBER 10: The Giants “appear to have interest in” free agent right-hander Chris Bassitt, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.  Checking in on Bassitt would track with the Giants’ general interest in starting pitching this winter, as they have also been linked to Carlos Rodon, Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, and Shintaro Fujinami this winter, and plus Andrew Heaney before Heaney with the Rangers.

There haven’t been too many rumblings on Bassitt to date, though he entered the offseason as one of the top pitching options on the market.  MLBTR rated Bassitt as the fifth-best starter available this winter (and 13th overall on our Top 50 Free Agents list), and of the four pitchers placed ahead of Bassitt, only Rodon and Senga remain, while Jacob deGrom signed with the Rangers and Justin Verlander joined the Mets.

In signing Verlander and Jose Quintana, the Mets have already found rotation replacements for deGrom and Taijuan Walker.  Bassitt and the Mets had some mutual interest in a reunion before the offseason began, and given how aggressive New York has been in adding free agents and building payroll, it wouldn’t count as a surprise if the team splurged again to bring Bassitt back to Queens.

That said, recent reports suggest that the Mets don’t have interest in giving Bassitt anything more than three guaranteed years, and the right-hander is still looking for at least a four-year contract.  Bassitt’s desire for such a lengthy commitment might also be a reason why the pitching-needy Blue Jays have only limited interest for now.  The qualifying offer is also surely a factor, as Bassitt rejected the Mets’ QO, and thus any team who signs the righty will have to give up draft compensation.

The Mets and Blue Jays have been the only teams known to have any interest in Bassitt, but it’s probably fair to guess that several other teams in need of pitching have at least made some calls to Bassitt’s reps at Meister Sports Management.  After all, Bassitt did post a 3.42 ERA/3.75 SIERA over 181 2/3 innings with New York last season, with an above-average 6.6% walk rate, a career-best 48.8% grounder rate, and excellent hard-contact numbers.

With top-ten finishes in AL Cy Young Award voting as a member of the Athletics in 2020-21, Bassitt is also from a one-year wonder, and he still projects as a solid starter heading into his age-34 season.  Just based on age alone, however, teams may be a little wary of going beyond a three-year deal, especially a Giants team that has traditionally looked to sign players (especially pitchers) to shorter-term contracts.  Under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, San Francisco has yet to sign a player to a deal beyond three years.

That said, the Giants did make a concerted effort to sign Aaron Judge this winter, and naturally that contract would’ve gone well beyond three years.  Judge and Bassitt represent very different free agents, yet if San Francisco is getting more aggressive in its pursuits this offseason, it is possible the club might be willing to consider a four-year deal if it’ll clinch a Bassitt signing.

With Logan Webb as the ace, Bassitt could slide into the No. 2 starter role, ahead of Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, and Anthony DeSclafani.  Adding another starter would allow the Giants to move Jakob Junis back into the preferred role of swingman, and Bassitt in particular would bring durability.  DeSclafani is a bit of a wild card after spending much of the 2022 season on the injured list, and Wood also has a long injury history.  Signing Bassitt would probably take San Francisco out of the running for Rodon, but since Rodon also turned down a qualifying offer, the Giants would get a compensatory pick back if Rodon signed elsewhere, somewhat offsetting the penalty they’d incur for signing Bassitt.

Giants Made Offer To Brandon Nimmo

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It’ll come as little consolation to Giants fans, but the team did have an offer on the table for top remaining free agent outfielder Brandon Nimmo before he wound up re-signing with the Mets for eight years and $162MM, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. As Puma notes, it appears that once owner Steve Cohen got personally involved, Nimmo’s return to the Mets materialized quickly. It’s not known what terms the Giants were offering Nimmo.

It’s the second-straight outfielder the Giants have missed out on, having aggressively pursued Aaron Judge before he ultimately return to New York on a nine-year, $360MM deal. They have added Mitch Haniger on a three-year, $43.5MM deal but from the outset of the off-season they’ve been strongly linked with the top free agents. They could still sign one, and they’re one of the teams (along with the Twins and Cubs, per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman) that are heavily rumored to be in on Carlos Correa.

The outfield has been an area of focus for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi this winter. Haniger’s addition bolsters their group, but Zaidi’s wanted two outfield signings. Now that they’ve missed out on the clear top two options available, it’ll be interesting to see whether they look for another outfielder, or go with a mix of Haniger, Austin Slater and Mike Yastrzemski and divert their resources to other options like Correa, or a starting pitcher.

If they do continue with their plans to add another outfielder, Andrew Benintendi is probably the top free agent available now. MLBTR predicted a four-year, $54MM deal for him, and given the Giants’ payroll space they could conceivably go after someone like that while still having space to pursue a long-term deal with Correa. They could also look to the trade market, and approach the Pirates about a deal to bring Bryan Reynolds back to the team that drafted him in 2016. While Reynolds is only due to make $6.75MM in 2023, he’s under club control for three more seasons and Pittsburgh looks to have a sky high asking price for him.

The Giants have a projected payroll of about $139MM as things stand, but they also have in the region of $60MM+ coming off the books at the end of next season. Given their payroll has stretched north of $200MM in recent seasons, they do have plenty of room to make a number of additions over the next season or two.

Diamondbacks Reportedly Showing Interest In Shintaro Fujinami

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The Diamondbacks have shown interest in Japanese pitcher Shintaro Fujinami, according to a report from Nikkan Sports (Japanese-language link). The report also lists the Giants and Red Sox as other teams in the mix but suggests Arizona is emerging as one of the favorites to work out a deal with the right-hander.

Fujinami was made available to major league clubs via the posting system on December 1. That opened a 45-day window for MLB teams to negotiate a contract with the 28-year-old. If Fujinami doesn’t sign with an MLB team by January 15, he’d remain a member of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Hanshin Tigers in 2023. Reports of MLB interest and perhaps an early frontrunner just over a week after the posting window opens would seem to bode well for his chances of making the jump to the majors.

One of the more interesting wild cards in this year’s pitching market, Fujinami has already played parts of 10 seasons at Japan’s top level. A highly-regarded amateur talent a decade ago, he made his NPB debut at age 18 in 2013. Fujinami started with an excellent 2.75 ERA over 137 2/3 innings as a rookie, seemingly positioning him as a core piece of the Tigers future. By 2015, he’d posted a 2.40 ERA with 221 strikeouts through 199 innings in his age-21 season. Fujinami also performed well in 2016 but saw his production start to drop off by the ’17 campaign.

Increasingly, the 6’6″ righty battled control problems. That erratic strike-throwing led the Tigers to shuttle him back-and-forth between NPB and their minor league affiliate frequently through 2019. He spent the majority of his time at Japan’s top level in 2020-21 but posted respective ERA’s of 4.01 and 5.21. Fujinami again split his 2022 campaign between NPB and the minors, only throwing 66 2/3 innings at the highest level.

To his credit, he found more success in that relatively limited look than he has in a while. Fujinami managed a 3.38 ERA through 16 appearances. He struck out a strong 23.6% of opponents and importantly only doled out free passes to 7.6% of batters faced. Fujinami’s only a season removed from an untenable 16.8% walk rate in 2021, but he at least flashed more consistent strike-throwing ability this year. He’s long had an arsenal that intrigues scouts, with a fastball that usually sits in the mid-90’s and has topped triple-digits in the past.

The erratic strike-throwing track record could point towards Fujinami being a better fit for the bullpen, but he has an extensive workload as a starter in Japan. Each of the Diamondbacks, Giants and Red Sox could stand to use additional arms in both the rotation and relief unit, making Fujinami an interesting upside possibility for any of that group.

If he does sign with a major league team, the club would owe a fee to the Tigers under the MLB – NPB posting agreement. That’s tied to the size of the contract itself, with the MLB team owing the NPB club 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. It’d be a major surprise if an MLB deal for Fujinami topped $25MM, so the posting fee is likely to end up at 20% of the contract value.

Carlos Rodón Seeking Seven-Year Deal

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The Yankees are one of many teams known to be interested in lefty Carlos Rodón, but Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that they would prefer to limit him to a four- or five-year deal. That might be a problem, since Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Rodón is looking for at least seven years. Reporter Marino Pepén says the Red Sox are interested, though the extent of interest isn’t clear.

Just a few days ago, it had been reported that Rodón was seeking a six-year deal, but there may be good reasons why he’s upped his ask. The free-agent market has been broadly aggressive, with many of the top free agents going well beyond expectations in terms of contract length.

In recent offseasons, teams have generally cut off guarantees to position players in their age-37 seasons, but Aaron Judge got a nine-year deal taking him through age-39. Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts each landed 11-year deals that run into their 40s. Brandon Nimmo will be paid through age 38 with the Mets. Pitchers, meanwhile, have struggled to land guarantees beyond their age-36 season (with older veterans like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander standing as exceptions for obvious reasons), but Jacob deGrom signed through age 39 in Texas. The length of all those deals is generally rooted in lowering the luxury-tax hit, though, and Rodon’s ostensibly new goal of seven-plus years could be a matter of falling in line with that broader market trend.

DeGrom and Rodón are somewhat analogous, though not the exact same. Both are extremely talented pitchers with some injury concerns in recent years. DeGrom is arguably the best pitcher alive when healthy but missed over an entire year from mid-2021 to mid-2022 due to forearm and scapula injuries.

Rodón is much younger, as he will turn 30 years old tomorrow. Injuries limited him to just over 40 combined innings in 2019 and 2020 and the concern was high enough that the White Sox actually non-tendered him after that. There were enough red flags that he had to settle for a one-year, $3MM deal to return to the Sox. He’s been on a straight upward trajectory since.

Rodón tossed 132 2/3 innings in 2021 with a 2.37 ERA and excellent 34.6% strikeout rate. He seemed to run out of gas down the stretch, leaving some lingering health concerns as he returned to free agency. He didn’t get a qualifying offer and had to “settle” for a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants, though one that gave him a chance to opt-out after the first campaign. He pushed further away from the injury worries by making 31 starts and logging 178 frames with a 2.88 ERA and 33.4% strikeout rate. He made the easy decision to opt out and also reject a qualifying offer from the Giants.

The fact that Rodón is now reasonably seeking a seven-year deal is nothing short of remarkable, given where he was just two years ago. It’s also not surprising that he’s looking to strike while the iron is hot, given the ups and downs he’s had in his career. Still, contracts of this length for free agent pitchers are quite rare. Gerrit Cole got nine years but with a much stronger record of health than Rodón. Prior to that deal, he had made at least 19 starts for seven straight seasons and at least 32 in the previous three. Kenta Maeda got eight years when coming over from Japan, but that was a unique situation. Maeda was going into his age-28 season but had some health concerns, leading the Dodgers to give him a modest $25MM guarantee spread out over eight years but with $10MM in incentives available each year that Maeda could trigger by staying healthy.

There are a handful of aces that have gotten to seven years, including Max Scherzer, David Price, Stephen Strasburg, CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka, the latter of whom was only 25 at the time and is hardly a similar situation. Strasburg had dealt with some injuries but was coming off a World Series MVP performance that pushed his bidding up. The others in that group, similar to Cole, had fairly solid records of health and durability. As great as Rodón has been for the past two seasons, any seven-year deal would generally be rarefied air for a pitcher.

Now, with this offseason’s trend of utilizing longer contracts to tamp down AAV (and, thusly, luxury-tax penalties), it seems more plausible than before that Rodón might indeed command seven-plus years. Initial reports indicated that he was seeking six years with a $30MM+ annual salary. If Rodón and agent Scott Boras are fixated more on the contract’s total than on its length, then spreading that, say, $175-200MM goal out over a period of seven, eight or even nine years would greatly reduce the potential luxury penalties for whichever team signs him. That’s more a concern if he signs with a major-market club that regularly finds itself in luxury peril (e.g. Yankees, Red Sox) than if he were to sign with one of his reported suitors that has never held much of an appetite for the luxury tax (e.g. Twins, Orioles).

The Yankees are clearly willing to spend, as they just gave Judge a record-breaking $360MM guarantee. How much they want to continue spending, however, is an open question. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s payroll for next season at $250MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $266MM. That already places them beyond last year’s Opening Day payroll of $246MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and beyond the second tier of luxury tax penalization. The tiers begin at $233MM next year and go up in $20MM increments to $293MM. Adding $25-30MM for Rodón would push them near or above that top penalty threshold.

The club doesn’t strictly need an elite starter like Rodón, but he would certainly be an upgrade for any rotation in the game. The Yanks currently have Cole, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes and Frankie Montas for four spots with solid options for the last spot including Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt. That’s a solid group, but Montas and Severino both have some recent injuries that make them question marks going into next season, so there would be plenty of sense in adding another arm and pushing some guys down the depth chart. The question will be whether the Yanks would prefer paying the price for an ace like Rodón as opposed to turning to mid-rotation options like Chris Bassitt or Sean Manaea.

If Rodón indeed is open to seven or more years in order to obtain the contract total he’s eyeing, that would be an interesting situation for the Yankees to ponder. They already have expensive contracts for Cole and Judge on the books for the next six and nine years, respectively. Giancarlo Stanton has five years left with a $25MM club option for 2028 with a $10MM buyout. Adding a lengthy deal for Rodón would likely mean their 2028 payroll would already be well beyond $100MM.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, have plenty of space before thinking about the tax. Roster Resource currently has their payroll at $172MM and their CBT figure at $192MM. That leaves them about $40MM away from the lowest threshold, meaning they could add Rodón with room to spare. There would be plenty of sense in adding to their rotation given all the question marks they have there. Nick Pivetta is probably the only solid member of their group right now, as Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years. Brayan Bello and Garrett Whitlock are penciled into two spots, though they are young and only have 20 MLB starts between them. They also have other areas worth addressing on the roster, such as catcher and figuring out how to deal with the departure of Bogaerts from their infield. Long-term, they have Story and Masataka Yoshida locked in for the next five seasons but nothing guaranteed for 2028.

Latest On Sean Murphy

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Athletics catcher Sean Murphy is among the most popular players on the trade market, due both to his general excellence as a well-rounded catcher and to the dearth of high-end catching talent in a market where several teams are looking for upgrades at the position. To this point, he’s been linked to the D-backs, Astros, Cubs, Guardians, Twins, Braves, Rays and Red Sox in the past three to four weeks. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle adds the Giants to list of teams that have called Oakland regarding Murphy, though an upgrade at catcher isn’t currently atop San Francisco’s priority list as they still hope to reel in a top-of-the-market free agent such as Carlos Correa.

The Cardinals were considered one of Murphy’s most prominent suitors before yesterday’s five-year agreement with Willson Contreras, and it seems that Oakland’s sky-high asking price on Murphy prompted St. Louis to instead pivot to the free-agent market. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported earlier in the week that the A’s were seeking controllable, MLB-ready players in return for Murphy, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch shines some further light on the type of return Oakland is seeking. Per Goold, the Athletics’ ask in talks with the Cardinals included outfielder Lars Nootbaar, third-place Rookie of the Year finisher Brendan Donovan, and a near-MLB pitching prospect such as Gordon Graceffo.

It’s a hefty asking price, to be sure, as both Nootbaar and Donovan burst onto the scene in 2022 and staked a claim to regular roles with the Cardinals. Nootbaar finished out the season with a .228/.340/.448 batting line (125 wRC+), and he was particularly effective in the season’s final two months, once he was finally able to settle into an everyday role (as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored in September). Nootbaar made the most of his opportunity as the primary right fielder in St. Louis, slashing .246/.371/.492 with 10 homers, 12 doubles and three triples in his final 240 plate appearances. He’s controllable through 2027.

Donovan is similarly interesting, even though the manner in which he delivers value is completely different. Also 25, Donovan played all four infield positions and both outfield corners this season, generally delivering quality defense at each spot — hence this year’s Gold Glove Award. He batted .281/.394/.379, showing minimal power but also a keen feel for the strike zone, evidenced by a 12.8% walk rate and an excellent 15% strikeout rate. He’s controlled a year longer than Nootbaar, all the way through the 2028 season. As for Graceffo, he’s currently ranked as baseball’s No. 66 prospect at Baseball America, No. 78 at FanGraphs and No. 79 at MLB.com.

Suffice it to say, it’s a massive haul for the A’s to seek and a justifiable one for the Cardinals to walk away from, no matter how excellent Murphy is. Focusing in on the Cardinals aspect is generally a moot point now, though. With Contreras signing on through the 2027 season, St. Louis is no longer in the running.

Still, the asking price from one prominent suitor is instructive when trying to plot out what the A’s could seek from other clubs. Every valuation is different, of course, but teams looking into Murphy could very well need to part with multiple MLB-ready talents who have longer-reaching club control than the remaining three years the A’s hold over Murphy. General manager David Forst said this week that the A’s aren’t necessarily closed off to receiving lower-level players but stressed that adding players who have reached or could reach the Majors in 2023 — whether in a Murphy trade or other transactions — is at the “top of our to-do list” (link via Melissa Lockard of The Athletic).

2022 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2022 Rule 5 draft will begin at 4pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in San Diego. This will be the first time since 2019 that the meetings will be held in person, as the 2020 edition was virtual because of the pandemic and the 2021 draft was cancelled entirely due to the lockout.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and were signed in 2018 or earlier, and any players 19 or older and signed in 2019 or earlier, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2022 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2023 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. The most recent edition in 2020 saw some notable names move around, such as Akil Baddoo going from the Twins to the Tigers while Garrett Whitlock went from the Yankees to the Red Sox.

This post will be updated with the results as they come in…

First Round

1. Nationals: RHP Thad Ward (Red Sox) (hat tip to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com)
2. A’s: 1B Ryan Noda (Dodgers)
3. Pirates: LHP Jose Hernandez (Dodgers)
4. Reds: OF Blake Sabol (Pirates); Reds later traded Sabol to Giants for cash or a player to be named later
5. Royals: pass
6. Tigers: RHP Mason Englert (Rangers)
7. Rangers: pass
8. Rockies: RHP Kevin Kelly (Guardians); Rockies later traded Kelly to Rays for cash considerations
9. Marlins: RHP Nic Enright (Guardians)
10. Angels: pass
11. D-backs: pass
12. Cubs: pass
13. Twins: pass
14. Red Sox: pass
15. White Sox: RHP Nick Avila (Giants)
16. Giants: pass
17. Orioles: RHP Andrew Politi (Red Sox)
18. Brewers: RHP Gus Varland (Dodgers)
19. Rays: pass
20. Phillies: RHP Noah Song (Red Sox)
21. Padres: LHP Jose Lopez (Rays)
22. Mariners: RHP Chris Clarke (Cubs)
23. Guardians: pass
24. Blue Jays: pass
25. Cardinals:RHP Wilking Rodriguez (Yankees)
26. Yankees: pass
27. Mets: RHP Zach Greene (Yankees)
27. Braves: pass
29. Astros: pass
30. Dodgers: pass

Second Round

  • All teams passed

The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include Hector Perez from Baltimore to the Rays, Josh Palacios from the Nationals to the Pirates, Jared Oliva from the Pirates to the Angels, Nick Burdi from the Padres to the Cubs, Peter Solomon from the Pirates to the D-Backs and Jonathan Arauz from the Orioles to the Mets.

Padres Made Strong Offer For Aaron Judge

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3:22pm: Although Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic doesn’t say exactly how far the Padres went in their Judge pursuit, he reports the team did not offer Judge $400MM.

9:25am: Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Padres’ offer was $400MM over 10 years.

9:15am: The Aaron Judge bidding was widely believed to be a two-team battle between the Yankees and Giants. In the end, Judge is returning to the Bronx but there was a surprise third team that sat down at the table. Judge reportedly flew to the Winter Meetings in San Diego and met with the Yankees, Giants and Padres, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Padres came in with a “significant” offer, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, while Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that Judge turned down higher offers elsewhere to return to the Yanks. A report from Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic indicates that Judge met with Padres owner Peter Seidler and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller but “it is believed they never got the chance to make a formal bid.”

The fact that the Padres came close on Judge is noteworthy since this is the second time this week that they have reportedly been willing to put a massive deal in front of a player. After Trea Turner signed with the Phillies for $300MM over 11 years, it was reported that the Friars actually made Turner a higher offer of $342MM. The specifics of that offer aren’t known, so it’s possible that it contained deferrals or options that would change the context, but it was surely a huge number regardless. The details of what they floated to Judge aren’t known either, but since Judge is in agreement with the Yankees for $360MM over nine years, it can be fairly assumed that the Padres were willing to get somewhere in that vicinity.

The Padres have never really been considered heavy hitters when it comes to baseball spending, but they have completely changed that reputation in recent years. Up until recent years, they had only once had an Opening Day payroll in nine-figure territory, which came back in 2015, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They started ramping that up with big free agents deals for Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado, a massive extension for Fernando Tatis Jr., and a whole host of trades for stars on other teams. As a result, their Opening Day payrolls jumped to $174MM in 2021 and $211MM in 2022 and they ended up paying the luxury tax in both of those years thanks in part to in-season trades.

This week’s offers to Turner and Judge seem to indicate that they still haven’t reached the ceiling of where they are willing to go. Roster Resource pegs their 2023 payroll at $210MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $230MM. Signing Turner or Judge would have likely adding something around $30-40MM to each of those numbers. It’s possible they could have then looked to lower them by making trades, but they also still have other needs on the roster to address, such as filling out their starting rotation. Since the club is likely to be a third-time payor in 2023, they will face escalating penalties this time around. Any spending over $233MM will result in a 50% tax, with a 62% tax for going over $253MM and a 95% tax on spending over $273MM.

The question now will be whether the Padres will now dedicate those resources elsewhere or if they viewed Turner and Judge as especially elite talents that were worth stretching their comfort zone. Though many top free agents have flown off the board this week, there are still plenty of them left. With Turner gone, three of the “big four” shortstops remain in Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. Signing a shortstop is a bit of a clunky fit on the roster since the Padres already have Ha-Seong Kim and Tatis, but they were willing to do it with Turner, perhaps by moving Tatis to the outfield. Would they pursue the same plan with one of the other shortstops? There’s also the starting rotation to think about, since the Friars lost Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger to free agency. While Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom are now signed, would the Padres consider a big splash on the last remaining ace in Carlos Rodón? With Judge off the board, the best remaining outfielder in free agency is Brandon Nimmo. Will the Padres turn their attentions to him?

Similar questions will now be asked about the Giants, as they were surely near Judge’s final price as well. Morosi reports that Judge had offers, plural, beyond what he accepted from the Yankees. Since the reporting indicates this came down to a three-team race, that seems to imply that both the Padres and the Giants were willing to go beyond the $360MM figure Judge eventually accepted.

Unlike the Padres, the Giants still have plenty of room before on their ledger before thinking about the luxury tax. Roster Resource has their payroll at $139MM with a CBT number of $156MM. Even if they added about $40MM or so with a Judge signing, they would have been well shy of the lowest luxury tax threshold of $233MM. It’s been reported for months that the Giants were interested in pursuing Judge as well as the marquee shortstops in this offseason. It now seems quite likely that they will pivot from Judge to those shortstops and be connected to them in rumors in the weeks to come. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports reports that this is indeed the plan, with Carlos Correa atop their list, though they will also be looking for another starting pitcher and outfielder, to pair with yesterday’s signing of Mitch Haniger.

Giants Sign Mitch Haniger To Three-Year Deal

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The Giants have added one of their desired outfielders, announcing a three-year contract with Mitch Haniger. It’s reportedly a $43.5MM guarantee, and the deal allows him to opt out after two seasons. Haniger is represented by Apex Baseball.

A Mountain View native, Haniger returns to Northern California during his first trip to free agency. He’ll receive a $6MM signing bonus up-front, followed by a $5MM salary in 2023 and $17MM in 2024. At that point, he’ll have to decide whether to bypass the final season and $15.5MM remaining on the deal. Haniger would also receive a $1MM assignment bonus if traded.

While this isn’t the outfield splash San Francisco fans have been urgently awaiting, there’s no question Haniger’s an upgrade to a lineup that was middle-of-the-pack in 2022. He’s been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons with the Mariners, flashing middle-of-the-order potential at his best. Haniger has topped a .490 slugging mark in three separate campaigns, twice surpassing 25 home runs.

Earlier in his career, the Cal Poly product paired that with strong on-base marks. He reached base at a .366 clip during a 2018 season that arguably stands as his best to date, when he posted a .285/.366/.493 line over 683 plate appearances. That showing earned him an All-Star nod and an 11th-place finish in AL MVP balloting.

Injuries prevented Haniger from following up with another full season. He was off to a slower start in 2019, carrying a .220/.314/.463 line into the first week of June. An unfortunately-placed foul ball resulted in a ruptured testicle which required season-ending surgery, and the health concerns carried into 2020. He underwent core surgery over the 2019-20 offseason and ended up missing the entirety of the abbreviated season. The series of brutal health luck cost him more than 18 months of action, but he returned with an excellent 2021 campaign.

Haniger logged his most extensive workload to date that year, tallying 691 plate appearances over 157 contests. He launched a personal-best 37 homers, although his .253 batting average and .318 on-base percentage were closer to league average marks. That kind of power production in one of the sport’s more pitcher-friendly home venues made him 21 percentage points better than average offensively, by measure of wRC+, and he landed some down-ballot MVP votes for the second time.

This past season again saw Haniger battle injury concerns. A high ankle sprain cost him a few months and he managed just a .246/.308/.429 line in 57 games. That was a disappointing platform season to be sure, but it doesn’t seem to have seriously changed the Giants’ projection of his long-term outlook. Haniger’s batted ball data in that limited look remained strong, as he posted a career-best 91.9 MPH average exit velocity and 47.2% hard contact rate. Over the past two seasons, he owns a .251/.316/.470 line.

In addition to that power-oriented offensive profile, Haniger offers decent value on the other side of the ball. He’s not an option in center field, but he generally rates well in right field. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as 21 runs above average in more than 3800 career innings of corner outfield work. Both DRS and Statcast rated him below-average in 2021, but he posted slightly better than par marks in both 2019 and 2022. Haniger’s not likely to win any Gold Gloves, particularly since he’s now headed into his age-32 season. Yet even competent defense would be a major boost for a San Francisco team whose outfielders rated 22 runs below average in 2022 in Statcast’s estimation.

Seattle elected not to issue Haniger a qualifying offer, so the Giants won’t forfeit any draft compensation to bring him aboard. The M’s will not receive any compensation for his departure. With Haniger walking in free agency and Jesse Winker dealt to Milwaukee, Seattle’s likely to continue exploring the market for outfielders to pair with Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández.

The Giants surely aren’t done in the outfield themselves. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters yesterday the team hoped to bring in two outfielders to join Mike Yastrzemski and Joc Pederson, who’d presumably be pushed into a designated hitter role if that transpired. There’s no secret who the top target is. The Giants are one of the top suitors for Aaron Judge, and they’ve reportedly offered him a deal in the $360MM range. Whether the defending AL MVP will leave the Yankees remains to be seen, but the Haniger signing surely doesn’t impact San Francisco’s pursuit at the top of the market.

Haniger’s deal narrowly tops MLBTR’s prediction of three years and $39MM at the start of the offseason. It shouldn’t have a huge impact on the Giants financial breathing room, as it only brings their 2023 payroll to around $143MM. The deal’s $14.5MM luxury tax hit puts their CBT ledger around $156MM, per Roster Resource. That’s nowhere close to the $233MM base tax threshold, nor is their actual spending near the $200MM range the Giants have reached in prior years. They’re sure to make more impactful additions in the coming weeks and months, but Haniger marks their first major step in bolstering their lineup as they try to track down the Dodgers and Padres in a competitive NL West.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Giants and Haniger had agreed to a three-year, $43.5MM deal. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was first to report the deal contained a post-2024 opt-out clause. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the specific financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Giants Showing Interest In Sean Manaea

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The Giants are showing interest in free agent starter Sean Manaea, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last night the team was seeking rotation help.

Manaea’s one of a number of mid-tier free agent starting pitchers available. The left-hander is a bit of a bounceback candidate after a rough second half with the Padres, although he’s typically provided teams with solid mid-rotation production. Manaea worked to an ERA between 3.59 and 4.37 during his four full seasons with the Athletics. Oakland’s spacious home ballpark and excellent team defenses certainly helped him, but the Indiana State product also consistently pounded the strike zone and tended to induce ground-balls at a decent clip.

That typically effective track record led San Diego to acquire him from the A’s this past spring. Manaea was expected to fortify an already strong rotation, and he mostly did so through his first few months at Petco Park. At the All-Star Break, he carried a 4.11 ERA with an above-average 23.9% strikeout rate. From the second half onwards, however, he was tagged for more than six earned runs per nine. By year’s end, he owned a career-worst 4.96 mark, and he was shelled for five runs in 1 1/3 innings during his sole postseason outing.

It’s certainly not the way the 30-year-old (31 in February) envisioned closing out his platform year. At the same time, there’s also reason to believe he’ll still have a strong market. Manaea’s strikeout and walk rates in the second half remained good (22.1% and 4.7%, respectively). He was brutally home run prone down the stretch, allowing 2.35 longballs per nine innings. That’s obviously untenable, but he’s unlikely to surrender homers on nearly 19% of his fly balls over a larger sample. Manaea tends to allow a lot of hard contact, but the 2022 campaign was the first in which that translated to serious problems keeping the ball in the yard.

That could point to Manaea being a target for teams with a pitcher-friendly home environment. The Giants have one of the league’s worst outfield defenses, but they expect to bring in a pair of outfielders from outside the organization this winter. Oracle Park also remained one of the more difficult venues for hitters to clear the walls. San Francisco has had a fair bit of success in recent years bringing in starting pitching from the middle of the free agent market. Players like Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeSclafani have each done well as bounceback candidates with the Giants, although it’s certainly not guaranteed Manaea will have to take a one-year pillow deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN floated that possibility last week, although the lack of a qualifying offer and the southpaw’s quality strikeout and walk numbers could lead to decent multi-year interest.

Meanwhile, Slusser adds the Giants have engaged representative Scott Boras at this week’s Winter Meetings regarding clients Carlos Correa and Brandon Nimmo. Both are known to be San Francisco targets, with Correa reportedly the team’s preferred option of this winter’s shortstop class. Of course, either player would seem to take a backseat on the priority list for Aaron Judge, to whom the Giants have reportedly offered a deal in the $360MM range. It’s theoretically possible the Giants could remain aggressive after Nimmo even if they land Judge, but it’s hard to envision them nabbing both Judge and Correa — the two top free agents remaining.

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