Trade Candidates: Top 5 Starters By K/BB Ratio
If you’re a pitcher, there aren’t many more important skills than racking up strikeouts and limiting walks. The on-the-block starters who have been adept in both categories in 2019 figure to be among the players who garner the most interest from other teams leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. With help from the trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams assembled last week, here’s a look at the five qualified, potentially movable starters who have stood out more than the rest in the K/BB department this year…
Zack Greinke, RHP, Diamondbacks: K/BB ratio: 7.13
- Even though he’s 35 years old and has a fastball that clocks in just below 90 mph, Greinke remains one of the majors’ preeminent starters. Greinke has fanned 8.02 batters per nine this year and walked a paltry 1.13, helping him to a 2.95 ERA/3.20 FIP across 128 frames. Plus, in a game where home runs are becoming more prevalent, Greinke has yielded under one per nine. If the Diamondbacks go into sell mode, Greinke is theoretically someone who’d draw plenty of interest. However, his contract could serve as a major roadblock. Not only is Greinke owed roughly $79MM through 2021, but his partial no-trade clause gives him the right to say no to 15 teams.
Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers: K/BB ratio: 6.33
- A glance at Boyd’s MLBTR page shows no shortage of teams in pursuit of the breakout 28-year-old, who has evolved into a K/BB master this season. Boyd has struck out 12 per nine and issued just 1.89 BB/9 at the same time, though a low groundball percentage (37.1) has played in a part in recent difficulties preventing home runs. Boyd has allowed 10 in seven starts dating back to the beginning of June, when he owned a 3.01 ERA. He has now posted a 3.95 mark in 114 innings this year, albeit with a 3.47 FIP/3.35 xFIP and the majors’ 11th-highest swinging-strike rate (14 percent). Considering Boyd’s 2019 production, his $2.6MM salary and his three remaining seasons of arbitration control, it’s no wonder teams are lining up for him.
Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets: K/BB ratio: 5.14
- Despite their awful 42-51 record, the Mets probably aren’t going to trade deGrom, the reigning NL Cy Young winner whom they signed to a four-year, $120.5MM extension entering the season. The 31-year-old hasn’t been the otherworldly force he was in 2018, but that’s far more of a compliment to his work a season ago than a knock on what he has done in 2019. To this point, deGrom has pitched to a sparkling 3.21 ERA/3.12 FIP with 11.27 K/9 and 2.19 BB/9 over 115 innings. Should the Mets at least consider trading him? Many of you think so, but general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s unlikely to pull the trigger.
Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants: K/BB ratio: 4.84
- It’s true Bumgarner isn’t the ace he was in his halcyon days, but the 29-year-old’s K/9 (9.33) and BB/9 (1.93 BB/9) are befitting of a front-line arm. His 3.86 ERA and 3.80 FIP tell another story, though they’re certainly not subpar. The multi-time playoff hero has drawn tons of interest in advance of the deadline, and is likely the top rental starter in the rumor mill. For a while, Bumgarner has looked like a surefire trade candidate for the Giants, but a recent hot streak has put them just three games back in the National League’s wide-open wild-card race. Still, odds are that they’ll move Bumgarner for a solid return in the next two weeks.
Mike Leake, RHP, Mariners: K/BB ratio: 4.72
- Leake’s inclusion on this list comes as a surprise in light of the other hurlers on it, and he’s definitely not part of it because of an impressive strikeout total. To the contrary, Leake has fanned a meager 6.63 batters per nine over 115 1/3 frames. On the other hand, his 1.4 BB/9 is outstanding. The same can’t be said for Leake’s 4.60 ERA/4.99 FIP or his 88.2 mph average fastball velocity, though. As a back-end starter who’s owed the balance of $36MM through 2020 (including $9MM from his prior team, the Cardinals, and a $5MM buyout in 2021), there isn’t much trade value here despite Leake’s placement in this top five.
Mariners Designate Mac Williamson For Assignment
The Mariners announced Tuesday that outfielder Mac Williamson has been designated for assignment. His roster spot will go to utilityman Kristopher Negron, whose contract has been selected from Triple-A Tacoma. Seattle also recalled right-hander Erik Swanson from Tacoma to fill a vacant spot on its active roster.
Williamson, 28, was once viewed as a potential long-term option with the Giants but has yet to replicate his solid Triple-A production at the MLB level. Seattle gave him a slightly longer look than San Francisco did in 2019, but his results with both clubs were poor. In a combined 144 trips to the plate this year, Williamson has slashed an underwhelming .156/.250/.258 while striking out at a 30.6 percent pace. He does have some pop in his bat, evidenced by a lifetime .266/.344/.488 line in parts of five Triple-A seasons.
Williamson is out of minor league options, so any club that acquires him would have to carry him on its MLB roster. The Mariners will have a week to trade him, release him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. If they go the latter route and he clears, Williamson could still elect free agency due to the fact that he’s already been outrighted off a 40-man roster once in his career.
Mariners Release Jon Niese, Tyler Cloyd
The Mariners have released left-hander Jon Niese and righty Tyler Cloyd, Triple-A Tacoma broadcaster Mike Curto reports. Both pitchers had been on the Rainiers’ roster.
Niese’s release is the latest unwelcome development in what has largely been a solid professional career. The 32-year-old lasted just under three months with the Mariners, who inked him to a minor league contract April 25, and threw 70 1/3 innings of 5.76 ERA ball with a microscopic strikeout rate (4.9 K/9, against 3.1 BB/9) as a member of Tacoma’s roster. It was the first true game action since 2016 for Niese, who – despite spending time with the Yankees in 2017 and the Rangers in ’18 – battled injuries that prevented him from pitching over the previous two seasons.
Niese struggled mightily in his most recent major league season, which he divided between the Pirates and Mets, but otherwise has enjoyed a better MLB career than most pitchers. He posted a 4.07 ERA/4.02 FIP with 6.92 K/9, 2.78 BB/9 and a 50.1 percent groundball rate in 1,189 1/3 innings – almost entirely with the Mets – from 2008-16.
Cloyd’s also 32, though his big league track record is nowhere near as long as Niese’s. In parts of four seasons with the Phillies, Mariners and Marlins from 2012-18, Cloyd totaled just 112 frames and recorded a 6.35 ERA/4.88 FIP with 6.83 K/9, 3.38 BB/9 and a 35.7 percent grounder rate. Cloyd reunited with the Mariners in late April, the same day Niese signed, and proceeded to put up an ugly 7.43 ERA/5.94 FIP in 66 2/3 innings in the difficult Pacific Coast League environment. Cloyd has typically performed far better at the minors’ top level, evidenced by his 4.31 ERA with 7.0 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 in 653 1/3 Triple-A innings.
Mariners Activate Sam Tuivailala From 60-Day Injured List
The Mariners announced Monday that they’ve reinstated right-hander Sam Tuivailala from the 60-day injured list, thus filling one of the two vacancies on their 40-man roster. Tuivailala will join the MLB bullpen as righties Parker Markel and David McKay are optioned to Triple-A Tacoma, per the club. An additional move to fill the 25th spot on the active roster will be announced tomorrow when the M’s return from today’s off day.
It was less than a year ago that the Cardinals traded Tuivailala to Seattle in exchange for minor league righty Seth Elledge as part of a dramatic midseason roster shakeup. The Mariners were surely pleased to acquire four and a half seasons of a reliever who appeared to have established himself as a solid middle reliever, but Tuivailala suffered a torn Achilles tendon just weeks after being traded and hasn’t pitched in the Majors since.
The now-26-year-old Tuivailala allowed just one run in 5 1/3 innings with Seattle prior to his injury. In 79 1/3 innings from 2017-18, the 2010 third-round pick worked to a 2.95 ERA with 7.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9 and a 49 percet ground-ball rate. For a team with baseball’s fourth-worst ERA (5.06), the return of a potential long-term option like Tuivailala will be a welcome sight.
AL West Notes: Astros, Bailey, Santana, Rangers
Pitching is on the Astros‘ mind as the AL West leaders approach the trade deadline, and both starters or relievers could be on the menu, GM Jeff Luhnow told The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan (subscription required). “It all depends on whether or not we’re able to acquire a starter and what that means for the rest of the rotation and maybe when [Brad] Peacock’s going to come back and be healthy and all of that,” Luhnow said. “So, there are a lot of variables. But we’ve never ruled out looking at relievers. In fact, several of the pitchers that we have on our wish list are relievers.”
As Luhnow mentioned, Peacock’s injury status adds another question mark to a rotation that was already in need of at least one more starter. While Houston has been linked to any number of big-name starters on the rumor mill, acquiring a reliever would add pen depth, and also perhaps allow the Astros to experiment with using an opener and bulk pitcher for one of the rotation spots, rather than a full-time starter. For the short term, Luhnow figured his team will have to get though something of a pitching crunch over the next few days, though “we talked to a couple clubs about some players who might fit in.”
More from around the division…
- The trade that brought Homer Bailey from the Royals to the Athletics “came together kind of quickly this morning,” Oakland GM David Forst told MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos and other media, as Forst initially contacted the Royals about Bailey only “a few days ago.” Bailey was actually scheduled to start today for Kansas City, and was only told of the deal while he was doing his pregame warmup pitches in the bullpen. Bailey adds at least one veteran arm to Oakland’s pitching mix, and while the A’s hope to get some of their injured younger hurlers back soon, the club hasn’t closed the door on more trades. “We’ll keep an eye on starters, but we have a lot of conversations going on for relievers right now,” Forst said.
- Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times answered several Mariners-related questions as part of a reader mailbag, and in regards to a question about Domingo Santana, Divish opines that the M’s should be open to trade offers at the deadline or in the offseason. After a rough 2018, Santana has regained his 2017 hitting form in Seattle, and he is also controlled through 2021 via arbitration. With this in mind, Divish feels the Mariners should explore selling high on Santana, since he may not fit into the club’s long-term rebuild plans and doesn’t offer any defensive help.
- Rangers prospect Anderson Tejeda will miss the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury, according to The Athletic’s Levi Weaver (Twitter link). Tejeda was ranked as the 93rd-best minor league in the sport by Baseball Prospectus prior to the season, though Tejeda’s year at high-A ball was halted on May 29 after he hurt his shoulder while sliding into a base. An international signing in 2014, the Dominican middle infielder has a .265/.332/.452 slash line and 45 home runs over 1672 professional plate appearances. MLB.com ranks Tejeda as the third-best prospect in the Rangers’ system, citing his good glovework at shortstop and a “plus-plus” throwing arm.
Mariners Outright Andrew Moore
Mariners right-hander Andrew Moore has passed through waivers and has been outrighted to Triple-A Tacoma, according to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. The move leaves the Mariners with 38 players on the 40-man roster.
Moore has made only one start for Seattle this year, lasting 4 2/3 innings and conceding four runs. He was a waiver claim from the Giants back in May, and has spent his time pitching in the upper minors since then. He’ll remain in the Mariners organization, but will no longer be part of the 40-man roster.
Still just 25 years old, Moore was a second-round draft choice of the Mariners back in 2015. He debuted in the Majors with the team in 2017 and bounced around between Tampa Bay and San Francisco before finding himself back with the M’s. He’s got only 12 MLB games under his belt—ten of them starts—and the results haven’t been there to this point, with Moore averaging just 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings while surrendering home runs at an alarming rate.
Mariners Notes: Adams, Bradford, Altavilla, King Felix, Long
The Mariners are no longer pacing the playoff race, but they’re just one behind the Yankees for the league lead in players on the injured list with 12, per MLB.com’s Sarah Wexler, who provides updates on a number of injured Mariners. The bullpen trio of Austin Adams, Chasen Bradford, and Dan Altavilla are all in a similar boat in that they shouldn’t require surgery, but none are throwing yet so their return dates remain nebulous. Adams, in particular, was having a fine season out of the Mariners pen after he was inexplicably traded to Seattle by the pen-starved Nationals. Adams has appeared in 21 games for Seattle with a 3.47 ERA and even better 2.21 FIP. His strikeout rates dazzled throughout his minor league career, and he’s kept it up in Seattle with an eye-catching 41 strikeouts in 23 ⅓ innings (15.8 K/9). Let’s check in on a couple other injured Mariners…
- Felix Hernandez may return sooner than most, as he’s schedule to throw a bullpen on Monday, per Wexler. King Felix has been out since May 12. Health will be a necessary precursor for a King Felix return, as he struggled at the outset of the season with a 6.52 ERA across eight starts. He’ll have a role on the Mariners when he returns, but it’s been a steep decline for the Mariners legend, who’s pulling down just under $28MM this season and likely headed towards free agency at season’s end.
- Just as Shed Long was given an opportunity to get his season back on track, the music stopped again for the well-traveled prospect. Long came off the injured list for Thursday’s game in Tacoma only to injure his hand while playing second base, tweets the Rainiers’ broadcaster Mike Curto. Long will return to the injured list. When he’s been healthy, Long has fared better with Tacoma than with the big league club, though he showed promise at the ML level as well. As a Rainier, he’s slashing .279/.343/.466, versus .232/.329/.377 in 19 games as a Mariner. It’s been a tumultuous calendar year for long, who no doubt would appreciate a stretch of stability if he can get healthy. The Seattle roster should be able to accommodate giving him another crack at it if/when he sustains a measure of good health.
Trade Candidate: Roenis Elias
The trade market should pick up steam in earnest over the next week to 10 days, now that the All-Star break is behind us. Teams will play in pivotal series against divisional foes — some of which will dictate whether fringe contenders add pieces or wave a metaphorical white flag and begrudgingly sell off some veteran assets in exchange for youthful talent. Many of the names on the market are well known by now, as are others who could become available should their currently borderline teams ultimately sell. The Mariners are already known sellers, but there’s been little focus on lefty Roenis Elias, who has is in the midst of a second consecutive quality season.
None of what’s written here will be a means of suggesting that Elias is a premium trade chip, but he’s certainly a more appealing trade piece than one would think given the lack of attention he’s drawn. The Cuban-born southpaw will turn 31 the day after the deadline, so he’s not the type of young, controllable asset after which so many clubs pine. However, he is controllable for another two seasons, and over the past two years, Elias has been a perfectly serviceable relief option for Seattle skipper Scott Servais.
In his past 91 2/3 innings, Elias has turned in a 3.24 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.69 HR/9 and a 34.7 percent ground-ball rate. Elias throws hard for a lefty, averaging 94.1 mph on his fastball dating back to last season. He’s had some curious struggles against lefties in 2019 (some, but not all of which can be attributed to a .364 BABIP), but Elias has also held right-handed hitters to an awful .206/.272/.339 batting line through 257 plate appearances since the 2018 season opened.
If spin rate is your cup of tea, then Elias is all the more appealing. His fastball spin is in the 91st percentile among big league hurlers, per Statcast, while his curveball falls into a less-impressive but still-solid 76th percentile. The lefty has induced swinging strikes at a 10.6 percent clip over the past two seasons, including an 11.9 percent rate in 2019 that has been accompanied by an uptick in strikeout rate (from 6.0 K/9 in ’18 to 9.3 in ’19). Elias has even emerged as a late-inning option for Servais, locking down 11 saves. That said, he’s also no stranger to multi-inning relief outings.
The Nationals, Twins, Rays, Cubs, Pirates, Dodgers and Red Sox (although Boston has already acquired Elias from the Mariners once, only to trade him back) are among the teams in the market for a bullpen arm or two. For a team with payroll concerns, Elias’ $910K salary is small enough that he can be squeezed into virtually any budget. It’s also affordable enough that he can be penciled onto a 2020 roster without forecasting too steep a raise in arbitration.
Elias isn’t an elite reliever, but he’s intriguing as a solid, perhaps too-seldom-discussed arm on a team that has been openly broadcasting its willingness to sell veteran assets since the beginning of the offseason. His eminently affordable salary makes him a fit for any team’s budget, and given the large number of clubs eyeing bullpen help, there should be a market for his services. He might not be any team’s “Plan A,” but Elias should nonetheless have a decent chance of changing hands over the next three weeks.
Pitcher Notes: Stroman, Felix, Gore, Whitley
Blue Jays right-hander and prime trade chip Marcus Stroman has been dealing with a left pectoral issue since June 29, but he expects to return to the mound Sunday, Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets. Stroman’s set to take the ball at Yankee Stadium against a team that has shown interest in acquiring him prior to the July 31 deadline. Whether it’s New York or another club that reels in the 28-year-old, expectations are he won’t be a member of Toronto’s roster once the calendar reaches August. That isn’t lost on Stroman. Regarding the Blue Jays, Stroman told Mitchell, “They haven’t had me in their plans for the future, and I’ve come to terms with it.”
Here’s more on a few other notable hurlers…
- Shoulder and lat injuries have kept Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez from taking a major league mound since May 11. It’s now likely Hernandez won’t rejoin Seattle’s staff until at least the end of July, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. Hernandez may have even thrown his last pitch as a Mariner should more setbacks occur, per Divish. That would make for a sad ending in Seattle for the 33-year-old Hernandez, a free agent after the season. A career-long Mariner who debuted in 2005, King Felix enjoyed a long run as one of the majors’ premier aces, but the six-time All-Star and 2010 AL Cy Young winner is now in the throes of a sharp decline. Despite solid strikeout, walk and groundball rates (7.91 K/9, 1.86 BB/9, 50.0 GB%), Hernandez slumped to a 6.52 ERA/5.40 FIP in eight starts and 38 2/3 innings this season before going on the injured list.
- Elite Padres pitching prospect MacKenzie Gore is inching closer to a major league promotion. The Padres promoted the 20-year-old left-hander from High-A ball to the Double-A level Tuesday, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays. Gore, the third overall pick in the 2017 draft, ranks as a top 10 prospect according to Baseball America (No. 3), MLB.com (No. 3), ESPN’s Keith Law (No. 7) and FanGraphs (No. 10). After injuries limited Gore to 60 2/3 innings last season, he jumped out to a magnificent 1.02 ERA with 12.48 K/9 and 2.27 BB/9 in 79 1/3 High-A innings this year to earn a promotion.
- Unlike Gore, fellow high-end pitching prospect Forrest Whitley has failed to impress in 2019, Josh Norris of Baseball America observes. In addition to posting horrific numbers and battling injuries with the Astros’ Triple-A affiliate this season, Whitley has shown serious immaturity and underwhelming stuff on the mound, evaluators have told Norris. The 21-year-old did enter the season as the youngest player in the Pacific Coast League, though, Norris points out.
AL West Notes: Astros, Pence, Harvey, Mariners
The Astros will have a difficult decision to make after the All-Star break, when they will need to find a fifth starter to join the current group. As The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan writes (subscription required), Houston has gotten by with only four starters lately, thanks to a schedule that has afforded the team some well-timed off days. Corbin Martin would ideally be the guy to step up, but his season was cut short by an elbow injury. As Kaplan notes, the Astros are widely expected to target starting pitching at the trade deadline, so whoever is chosen will only need to hold down the fort for the next few weeks. With the addition of a fifth starter, of course, someone will lose their roster spot, and that may just be Tony Kemp. Kemp has seen his role diminish of late, receiving only sparing playing time while fellow bench bats Myles Straw and Tyler White fill more essential spots. Notably, Kemp is out of options, meaning that he will need to clear waivers if the Astros would like to demote him while keeping him in the organization.
- It doesn’t look like Rangers designated hitter Hunter Pence will be ready to return to game action immediately following the All-Star break, according to TR Sullivan of MLB.com. As Sullivan notes, Pence, who is recovering from a right groin strain, has yet to get to back to running full speed. Pence hasn’t appeared in a game for the Rangers since the middle of June, when he landed on the injured list. A minor-league signing last winter, Pence has been a revelation for Texas, emerging as a force in the middle of the lineup. His efforts earned him a spot on the All-Star roster, though he won’t be able to participate thanks to the injury.
- After the break, the Angels expect to welcome Matt Harvey back to the starting rotation, according to Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group. On Sunday, he made a start for Triple-A Salt Lake, striking out seven batters in 3 1/3 innings of work. An upper back strain has prevented the veteran from pitching in the Majors since late May. When he has pitched for the Halos, though, the results have not been good: he’s worked to an unsightly 7.50 ERA in 10 starts and has thus far failed to live up to the $11MM contract he received in the offseason. Of course, he’ll have the rest of the season to reverse that, and he certainly has the talent to boost the playoff-hopeful Angels into the Wild Card conversation.
- Mariners right-handed pitcher Dan Altavilla will avoid Tommy John surgery after receiving the results from an MRI, tweets Greg Johns of MLB.com. That MRI showed no damage to Altavilla’s UCL, though he did endure a flexor strain in his elbow. To be sure, there’s nothing encouraging about elbow injuries, but the silver lining is that Altavilla won’t need to undergo Tommy John. Altavilla landed on the injured list after he “felt something in his forearm” while pitching on Friday.