MLBTR Poll: Who’s The NL Central Favorite?
With the exception of the Reds, who have made several notable moves, this hasn’t been an action-packed offseason in the National League Central. Cincinnati was a fourth-place team a season ago and is currently mired in a six-year playoff drought, but the club has made an earnest attempt to transform itself into a playoff contender since the 2019 campaign concluded. Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama have all come aboard in free agency to bolster the Reds’ position player group. Meanwhile, a rotation that was already strong in 2019 has tacked on Wade Miley to complement Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani, and the bullpen has pulled in Pedro Strop.
The Reds only won 75 games last year, but at last check, the majority of MLBTR voters expect them to amass 80-some victories this season. In the NL Central, where there doesn’t appear to be a dominant team, it may only take 80-plus wins to claim the division. The Cardinals’ 91 led the way last year, but they’ve made no truly headline-grabbing acquisitions in recent months, they’ve lost outfielder Marcell Ozuna to the Braves and now one of their most reliable starters, Miles Mikolas, is dealing with arm troubles early in the spring.
Along with the Cards, the 2019 Central boasted two other plus-.500 teams – the Brewers (89 wins) and the Cubs (84). It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either team contend for the playoffs again this year, but it’s difficult to argue that they’ve gotten better since last season. The Brewers have made quite a few changes, especially in the infield (Brock Holt‘s their latest pickup), but they also lost two of their best position players in Moustakas and catcher Yasmani Grandal earlier in free agency.
The Cubs, meantime, have been stunningly quiet for a deep-pocketed team that collapsed down the stretch in 2019. Seismic changes were expected after they laid an egg last year, and maybe they’ll still come (a Kris Bryant trade seems like the most realistic way to shake things up). For now, though, their roster looks a lot like the 2019 edition. There’s still plenty of talent on hand, but there’s no more Castellanos, who emerged as one of the Cubs’ main threats at the plate after they acquired him from the Tigers prior to last July’s trade deadline.
Aside from the Pirates, who are more likely to compete for the No. 1 pick than a playoff berth this year (and whom we’ll leave out of this poll), it wouldn’t seem unrealistic to pick any of the NL Central’s teams to win the division. This year’s PECOTA projections (via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) have the Reds grabbing the division with 86 wins and the Cubs totaling 85 en route to a wild-card spot. The system gives the Reds 66.2 percent preseason playoff odds, the Cubs 51.5 percent, the Cardinals 24.4 percent and the Brewers 20.3. We still have several weeks to go before the season opens, but as of now, which of those clubs do you think will finish on top?
(Poll link for app users)
Which team do you expect to win the NL Central?
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Reds 39% (9,801)
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Cardinals 31% (7,691)
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Cubs 18% (4,594)
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Brewers 12% (3,094)
Total votes: 25,180
Miles Mikolas To Receive PRP Treatment
Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas is due to receive a platelet-rich plasma injection, skipper Mike Shildt tells reporters including Mark Saxon of The Athletic (via Twitter). That doesn’t come as a surprise, but does come with clear consequences for the defending NL Central champs.
Mikolas has been diagnosed with a flexor tendon strain. He previously underwent PRP treatment but evidently hasn’t responded quite as hoped.
In terms of a timeline, it’s still foggy. Mikolas is slated to be checked by doctors after three to four weeks of rest. Where things go from there remains to be seen. But even in the most optimistic scenario, that’d put him at least a month behind his teammates. It seems exceedingly likely he’ll miss at least that portion of the regular season.
Mikolas made a valiant return to the majors in 2018 and was rewarded with a big extension. He wasn’t as good last year but still contributed 184 solid frames, working to a 4.16 ERA. There’s little doubt that Mikolas is a key part of the Cards’ rotation in 2020 and beyond.
It’s not yet clear just how the Cards will sort things to account for the loss of Mikolas. The hope surely remains that he’ll recover as quickly as possible, but the team will obviously not be able to assume anything — particularly since the issue wasn’t resolved with the initial treatment. The return of Carlos Martinez to the rotation now seems all the more important. It’s also possible we’ll see incoming Korean hurler Kwang-hyun Kim get a look in camp. The only other healthy 40-man options with prior MLB experience are Austin Gomber and Genesis Cabrera.
Latest On Miles Mikolas
Right-hander Miles Mikolas, one of the Cardinals’ top starters, is dealing with flexor issues at the outset of spring training. Mikolas underwent a platelet-rich plasma injection after last season, but it’s possible he’ll need another one, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Surgery doesn’t seem to be on the table at this point, though the Cardinals should make an announcement on Mikolas’ status in the “coming days,” Hummel writes.
This is no doubt a less-than-ideal start to the spring for Mikolas and the Cardinals, who made a significant investment in him a year ago. Then fresh off a great return season to majors after dominating in Japan from 2015-17, the Cardinals signed Mikolas to a four-year, $68MM extension in February 2019. That deal won’t take effect until this year, giving St. Louis all the more reason to hope he’ll get past his current injury troubles unscathed.
Now 31 years old, Mikolas didn’t thrive in 2019 to the same extent he did in the previous season. He performed well nevertheless, though, and was perhaps the Cardinals’ most effective starter after budding star Jack Flaherty. Mikolas turned in 184 innings of 4.16 ERA/4.27 FIP ball with 7.04 K/9, 1.57 BB/9 and a 47.4 percent groundball rate.
If healthy, Mikolas will again join Flaherty, Adam Wainwright and Dakota Hudson in the Cardinals’ rotation. Meanwhile, Carlos Martinez figures to head back to the rotation after a year spent as a reliever. That’s a strong quintet on paper, but if Mikolas or someone else ends up unavailable to open 2020, the recently signed Kwang-hyun Kim could have the inside track to begin as the No. 5 for the reigning NL Central champions.
NL Notes: Senzel, Pirates, Cespedes, Cardinals
As of a few weeks ago, the Reds were reportedly “considering” trade scenarios centering on Nick Senzel. However, president of baseball operations Dick Williams then suggested the outfielder/second baseman isn’t going anywhere. That’s fine with Senzel, who said Monday (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer): “I’m happy to be here. I want to be here for my whole career. I want to play in Cincinnati for these fans and my teammates. Any time those talks come up or anything, there is literally nothing I can do about it. I have no control over it. The less I worry about it, the better.” Senzel then noted trade rumors are “part of the business, especially when top names are getting thrown around.” Indeed, it never seemed as if the Reds would move Senzel during the winter without getting back a star-caliber player in return.
Here’s more from the National League…
- To say this has been an offseason low on impact acquisitions for the Pirates would be an understatement. They’ve signed three major league free agents – catcher Luke Maile and a pair of outfielders Jarrod Dyson and Guillermo Heredia – all for modest prices. Thanks to its offseason decisions, including the trade of center fielder Starling Marte to Arizona, Pittsburgh’s projected to enter 2020 with a microscopic payroll of $60MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. It’s not an ideal way to build a team, but the Pirates are in a rebuild. Once (and if) the Pirates begin to turn things around, new general manager Ben Cherington expects to have more money at his disposal. “I’m confident [payroll] will increase over time as we get deeper into our team build, there’s opportunity and we get closer with those opportunities,” Cherington stated Sunday (via Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). “I’m confident we’ll have the means to build a winning team and add pieces. We’re not putting any kind of date on when that could happen. We’re going to try and get there as soon as we can. That’s an every-day thing.” The Pirates have come under fire for a lack of spending, though Cherington added that he’s “really confident that the total investment in baseball operations is not just enough but really competitive within the industry,”
- It has been a trying couple years for Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, a former star. The 34-year-old missed a sizable chunk of time from 2017-18 and didn’t take the field at all last season as a result of various injuries, including one suffered during a run-in with a wild boar. The Mets then amended Cespedes’ contract back in December, dropping his 2020 salary from $29.5MM to $6MM. Cespedes is now working to return to form in the wake of a long layoff, but he wasn’t cooperative with the media Monday after the Mets’ first full-squad workout, as Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News relays. Asked if he’d discuss his offseason, his general health or the boar encounter, he offered, “Not today, not tomorrow, not at all this year.”
- With Jordan Hicks recovering from Tommy John surgery and Carlos Martinez on his way back to their rotation, the Cardinals will hold closer auditions all spring, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Andrew Miller, Ryan Helsley, John Gant, Giovanny Gallegos, John Brebbia, Alex Reyes and offseason signing Kwang-Hyun Kim could all be candidates to land the job, though the Cardinals may choose to fill the role by committee. “Having one guy who is a lock down guy is fine,” manager Mike Shildt told Goold. “If we don’t have that then clearly the multiple options are going to be necessary.”
NL Notes: Wong, Nationals, Martinez, Howard
Some notes from around the National League:
- Kolten Wong would be open to discussing a long-term extension with the Cardinals, he told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch this week. The 29-year-old has settled in as a productive everyday second baseman in recent seasons. Since the start of 2017, Wong has compiled a productive .274/.357/.409 slash (105 wRC+). More importantly, he’s emerged as one of the game’s top defenders at the keystone. Wong will make $10.25MM in 2020, the final guaranteed year of the early-career extension he signed. St. Louis also holds a $12.5MM club option ($1MM) on his services that would easily be exercised if he continues to produce at his recent levels.
- The Nationals’ World Series winning 2019 season started dreadfully, as they won just 19 of their first 50 games. Last fall, ownership said they never considered parting ways with manager Dave Martinez amidst the slow start. One more bad week last May, though, and the front office could have contemplated a change, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. One name discussed internally as a potential Martinez replacement: Buck Showalter, who, as Rosenthal notes, worked with Nats GM Mike Rizzo in Arizona from 1998-2000. Of course, that’s little more than an historical footnote now, as Martinez should be on solid footing after leading a remarkable turnaround. He and Rizzo are each entering the final guaranteed year of their contracts (although the Nationals have an option on Martinez for 2021). That said, neither Martinez nor Rizzo expressed worry about their situations as camp opens, and Rosenthal writes that “chances are” both will eventually work out extensions.
- The Phillies plan to start top pitching prospect Spencer Howard slowly in 2020, the organization tells Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The hope is to conserve some innings in the early going so the organization needn’t worry about shutting Howard down if they find themselves in a playoff race. “Every pitch he throws in March is a pitch he’s not going to be able to throw in September,” GM Matt Klentak told Lauber. “It’s not because something is wrong, and it’s not because we don’t like him. It’s because we like him a lot, and we need to set him up for success to pitch deep into the season this year.” The 23-year-old, Baseball America’s #27 overall prospect, threw fewer than 100 minor-league innings in 2019, in part due to a midseason shutdown with shoulder soreness. Nevertheless, it seems he’s likely to make his MLB debut at some point in 2020 now that his arm is fully healthy.
Health Notes: Verdugo, Mikolas, Buxton, Buttrey
As spring training gets rolling in earnest, news continues to trickle out about various players’ health situations. We’ll collect the latest here.
- Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo has a stress fracture in his lower back, the team told reporters (including Chris Cotillo of MassLive). The organization is comfortable with Verdugo’s progression but unsurprisingly plans to take things slowly in the early going, Cotillo notes. Interim manager Ron Roenicke acknowledged to reporters (including Cotillo) that “if everything goes right, he still might not be ready for Opening Day.” That’ll surely raise some eyebrows among Sox fans, but the organization was fully aware of the issue at the time they made the Mookie Betts trade, reiterates Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (on Twitter). Surgery won’t be necessary, tweets Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, but this is the firmest indication we’ve heard yet that Verdugo is likely to start the season on the shelf. Of course, Boston finalized a deal with Kevin Pillar yesterday. He figures to take on a significant role if Verdugo ends up sidelined.
- The prognosis seems to be better for Twins center fielder Byron Buxton. Buxton hit off a tee today and hopes to progress to soft toss by next week, per various reports (including from Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com and Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic). Per Gleeman, manager Rocco Baldelli expressed optimism earlier this week that Buxton could return from the shoulder surgery that ended his 2019 season by Opening Day.
- Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas is working back from a flexor injury and could be delayed in spring training, the team told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Mikolas had some recurring flexor soreness last season, Goold adds, although the hope was that a postseason PRP injection and rest would alleviate the issue. With the soreness having cropped back up, Mikolas is likely ticketed for an MRI, Goold reports. Notably, manager Mike Shildt stressed to Goold that the injury is likely not indicative of any damage to the UCL, which would obviously have been quite problematic. It doesn’t seem there’s overwhelming cause for concern just yet. Of course, it’s not ideal for a key member of the St. Louis rotation to be dealing with arm soreness this early in the season. (UPDATE: Mikolas underwent an MRI this morning, Goold tweets. The exam did not reveal any ligament damage, tweets Anne Rogers of MLB.com).
- Angels reliever Ty Buttrey suffered an intercostal strain and will be out for one or two weeks, manager Joe Maddon told reporters (including Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com). The club still anticipates he’ll be a full-go by Opening Day. The 26-year-old posted a 3.98 ERA with a strong combination of strikeouts (27.2%) and walks (7.4%) in 2019. The former Red Sox prospect figures to be a key bullpen piece for Maddon in the latter’s first year at the helm in Anaheim.
Cardinals Sign Brad Miller
3:27pm: The deal is “believed” to guarantee Miller $2MM, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.
3:10pm: The Cardinals announced Wednesday that they’ve signed infielder/outfielder Brad Miller to a one-year, Major League contract. Right-hander Jordan Hicks, who is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Miller is represented by ISE Baseball.
Miller, 30, split the 2019 season between the Indians and Phillies, turning in a particularly productive showing with the latter. In an admittedly limited sample of 130 plate appearances, Miller slashed .263/.331/.610 with a dozen home runs, three doubles and a triple. With the exception of the 2017 season, Miller has been a roughly average or better bat each season dating back to 2015, by measure of OPS+ and wRC+. In that time, he’s logged a combined .241/.318/.431 line.
Defense hasn’t been Miller’s strong point, however. While he’s appeared at every spot on the diamond outside of pitcher and catcher, Miller doesn’t have particularly strong ratings at any of them. But he’s nevertheless a versatile piece to add to manager Mike Shildt’s bench — one who has been particularly impactful against right-handed pitching. The St. Louis organization has long been reported to be seeking a left-handed bat, and while Miller isn’t exactly a high-profile means of satisfying that need, he’s been solid in a platoon role each season beyond the aforementioned 2017 campaign.
Orioles Claim Ramon Urias
The Orioles announced they’ve claimed infielder Ramon Urias off waivers from the Cardinals. Fellow infielder Pat Valaika was outrighted after clearing waivers, the team further announced.
It’s the latest in a long-running string of infield additions for the O’s, who’ve collected young glove-men at nearly the same rate the Giants have claimed relief pitchers. Urias and Valaika will both be among the camp competitors for utility roles, presuming there is no further action in the next week.
Urias spent most of his developmental time in the Mexican League, impressing there before jumping to the Cards. He’s primarily a second baseman but also has logged substantial time at the hot corner.
Though Urias has shown well with the bat at times over the past two seasons, he hasn’t yet forced his way into the majors. Urias slashed .263/.369/.424 in 375 Triple-A plate appearances last year — a touch below average in that high-powered offensive environment — but has since struggled quite a bit in Mexican winter ball.
Pitcher Notes: Rays, Glasnow, Mets, Wacha, Cardinals, Flaherty
While recovering from November wrist surgery, Tyler Glasnow is tinkering with his arsenal. The big right-hander plans on ditching his changeup and replacing it with a splitter, tweets MLB.com’s Juan Toribio . Glasnow’s changeup has never been a primary feature of his arsenal, topping at a 10.3% usage rate in 2017. It also hasn’t been a particularly effective pitch, save for in 2019 when hitters managed to slug just .125 against it, albeit in very limited usage (3.5%). It’s certainly intriguing to dream on a splitter to compliment Glasnow’s two lockdown offerings, but the pitch will have to survive spring training before taking on much (if any) significance. On a night of high drama, let’s check in on a couple other pitchers…
- Michael Wacha recognizes the starting depth he will be contending against in Mets camp this spring, but he’s undaunted, per Newsday’s Tim Healey. After all, as Healey points out, Wacha twice fought his way back into the Cardinals rotation last season after time in the bullpen. Of course, that might also be a sign that he’s the likeliest of the Mets’ six rotation candidates to start the year out of the money (both literally and figuratively, given the incentives in Wacha’s contract for games started). Wacha finished last season with a 4.76 ERA/5.61 FIP across 126 2/3 innings, and he’s only twice crossed the 150 inning threshold. It’ll be an uphill climb for Wacha to make the rotation by opening day, but it’s not impossible. Given the injury rate, there’s a decent chance he finds his way into the rotation at some point in 2020 regardless.
- Jack Flaherty isn’t eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 season, which means he can’t test free agency until following 2023, but the Cardinals ought to do their due diligence in locking him up now, writes Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Easier said than done of course, especially with a player who has already shown signs of understanding his tremendous value. Frederickson recounts Flaherty’s rejection of the Cardinals salary offer before last season, which cost him $10,000, though the penalty was worth it from Flaherty’s perspective. The statement he was able to make about the current system was of bigger importance to the Cardinals’ ace. That’s a good sign in terms of Flaherty’s character and competitive spirit, but perhaps less so for Cardinals fans hoping for news of an early extension. Flaherty’s displeasure with the arbitration system has little to do with the Cardinals, of course, but after a dominant 2019 in which he posted a 2.75 ERA/3.46 FIP, including a mind-boggling 0.91 ERA in the second half, it’s understandable for Flaherty to be at least a little displeased at making close to the league minimum.
Checking In On Last Year’s NL Division Champs
We checked in earlier tonight on how things are shaping up for last year’s American League division winners as get set for a new season. Let’s do the same here for the three Senior Circuit clubs that won division titles in 2019…
NL West – Dodgers (106-56; won division by 21 games)
- It’s hard to assess the Dodgers’ roster without knowing if their planned Mookie Betts acquisition will go through. There are many moving parts involved in that deal, as a Betts pickup would send fellow outfielders Alex Verdugo and Joc Pederson, not to mention righty Kenta Maeda, to different teams. Regardless of that, and regardless of what wasn’t an especially active offseason for the Dodgers before the Betts swap, they’re in line to take home their eighth straight division championship in 2020. That said, they’ll face more competition from the Diamondbacks and Padres. Those two teams have enjoyed impressive offseasons, though it’s still difficult to imagine either toppling the juggernaut Dodgers in 2020.
NL East – Braves (97-65; won division by four games)
- The Braves lost a few key free agents in Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel and Julio Teheran, but they still look like a rock-solid club when considering the talent on hand and their new additions. Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Mike Soroka continue to headline their core, and they’ve picked up Will Smith, Marcell Ozuna, Cole Hamels and Travis d’Arnaud in free agency. There’s little doubt the Braves will be very good again in 2020; problem is that they’re stuck in a division with two or three real challengers. The Nationals, last year’s world champions, as well as the Mets and Phillies have done quite a bit of tinkering with their rosters this winter. Even the Marlins have tried to better themselves. All things considered, the NL East is shaping up to be a dogfight this year.
NL Central – Cardinals (91-71; won division by two games)
- Like the NL East, the NL Central should be hotly contested in 2020. The Cardinals ruled by a thin margin last season, but they’ve since had a pretty low-key offseason. For the most part, they’ll be relying on their talent from 2019 to nab another title this year. Luckily for the Cardinals, neither the Brewers nor Cubs look demonstrably better (they’re arguably worse) than they were last season, and the Pirates’ roster is a mess. The Reds have been one of the offseason’s busiest teams, though, and look as if they’ll have a chance to jump from 75-win team to playoff-caliber club in 2020.