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Jedd Gyorko Suffers Setback

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JUNE 22: Gyorko’s now dealing with a right wrist issue that will require minor arthroscopic surgery, Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets. He won’t restart baseball activities for approximately three weeks.

JUNE 19: Injured Cardinals infielder Jedd Gyorko suffered a setback this week and won’t return “for a while,” Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.

Gyorko went to the injured list June 8 with a lower back strain, but he may now be dealing with a left calf strain. It’s the latest significant lower body issue for Gyorko, who thrice went on the IL with hamstring and groin strains from 2017-18.

Gyorko’s injury woes add to what has been a contract season to forget for the 30-year-old. Although the former Padre combined to hit .259/.331/.463 (111 wRC+) with 61 home runs and 6.1 fWAR in 1,321 plate appearances from 2016-18, his first three seasons as a Cardinal, playing time has been scarce for Gyorko this year. Stuck behind third baseman Matt Carpenter, second baseman Kolten Wong and shortstop Paul DeJong on the Cardinals’ depth chart, Gyorko has totaled just 62 PA in 2019 and batted a poor .196/.274/.304 (57 wRC+) with a pair of HRs.

Between his injuries and weak production, Gyorko looks as if he’s on track to settle for a much lower salary than his current $13MM when he reaches free agency in the offseason.  The Cardinals will have a chance to keep Gyorko for another $13MM then, but they’re sure to decline his option in favor of a $1MM buyout.

Carlos Martinez To Stay In Current Role

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Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez has been a highly capable starter for most of tenure with the club, which dates back to 2013. But the Cardinals moved the then-injured Martinez to their bullpen in late April, and that’s where he’s going to stay for the time being, per manager Mike Shildt (via Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Shildt suggested the Cardinals don’t have time to build up Martinez, who opened the season on the injured list with shoulder problems. “To put him back in that cycle again doesn’t make a lot of sense when he’s in a spot where he’s had success and he’s recovering,” Shildt said of Martinez, who has totaled 12 appearances and 13 1/3 innings with a 3.38 ERA/3.47 FIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 58.3 percent groundball rate since he made his season debut May 18. Even though Martinez has posted good numbers as a reliever, the Cardinals’ rotation has missed the 27-year-old. Their starting staff has been mediocre or worse this season.

Adam Wainwright To Return Thursday

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  • Cardinals righty Adam Wainwright will come off the IL to start Thursday, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com relays. Wainwright has been on the shelf since he departed a June 9 start with left hamstring tightness. Like most of St. Louis’ other starters, the 37-year-old Cardinals icon has registered unspectacular numbers this season. Wainwright owns a 4.46 ERA/4.59 FIP with 7.77 K/9 and 3.95 BB/9 in 70 2/3 innings.

Cardinals Select Rangel Ravelo’s Contract

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12:05pm: The move is now official. Righty Mike Mayers was moved to the 60-day IL to create 40-man space.

1:06am: The Cardinals are set to add minor league infielder Rangel Ravelo to their big league roster, The Athletic’s Robert Murray reports (Twitter link).  Ravelo’s contract should be selected prior to the Cards’ game with the Marlins on Monday night.  Yairo Munoz is headed to the paternity list, which will create a spot for Ravelo on the Cards’ 25-man roster, though a 40-man spot will still need to be created.

MLB.com doesn’t rank Ravelo as one of the Cardinals’ top 30 prospects, though the 27-year-old put up strong numbers during Spring Training this year, and then rebounded from an oblique injury to hit .333/.414/.543 with nine home runs over 249 PA for Triple-A Memphis.  Speaking to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch last week, Cards president of baseball operations John Mozeliak cited Ravelo as “not a name I’d rule out” in regards to a promotion.

Ravelo has played mostly first base and left field in recent years, with some work as as right fielder as well.  Since Paul Goldschmidt has first base spoken for in St. Louis, Ravelo seems likely to step into the corner outfield mix, though he is something of an imperfect fit on a roster already overloaded with right-handed bats.  Of course, this assumes that Ravelo will be up in the majors for anything beyond a cup of coffee, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that Jedd Gyorko is expected back from the 10-day injured list on Tuesday.  Ravelo could very well find himself back in Memphis in 24 hours’ time, without having officially made his Major League debut.

A sixth-round pick for the White Sox in the 2010 draft, Ravelo has consistently hit for high averages and shown a lot of on-base skills in amassing a .301/.372/.444 slash line over 3383 career plate appearances in the minors.  After spending his first five pro seasons in Chicago’s farm system, he was part of a notable trade in December 2014, going along with Marcus Semien, Josh Phegley and Chris Bassitt to the Athletics in exchange for Jeff Samardzija and Michael Ynoa.  Ravelo originally came to the Cards on a minors contract in April 2017.

Cardinals Sign 14th-Rounder To Above-Slot Deal

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  • Two teams made significant signings beyond the 10th round that will have hefty impacts on their draft bonus pools, as every post-10th round draft pick who signs for more than $125K will have the extra money counted against the pool.  The Braves signed 13th-round pick Tyler Owens to a $547.5K bonus, as per MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, while MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports that the Cardinals have signed 14th-rounder Tyler Statler to a $300K bonus.  Both Owens and Statler are right-handed pitchers out of high school, who had respectively committed to attend Florida and Southeast Missouri State.

Miles Mikolas Has Fallen Off

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The Cardinals signed free-agent right-hander Miles Mikolas to a two-year, $15.5MM guarantee in what became one of the wisest moves of the 2017-18 offseason. Although hardly a bank-breaking commitment, it was somewhat of a gamble for St. Louis. After all, Mikolas was an unspectacular major leaguer with the Padres and Rangers from 2012-14 who then spent three years pitching in Japan. Mikolas was dominant overseas, though, and he carried that excellence into 2018 in St. Louis.

During his first year with the Cardinals, Mikolas pitched to an outstanding 2.83 ERA/3.28 FIP in 200 2/3 innings. While Mikolas only struck out 6.55 batters per nine, he walked a mere 1.3 and induced ground balls at a 49.3 percent clip. Mikolas’ stinginess in the walk and fly ball departments helped lead to a 4.3 fWAR, which ranked 12th among major league starters.

Sold on Mikolas’ output last season, the Cardinals signed him to an extension worth a guaranteed $68MM for four years back in February. That deal will keep Mikolas under wraps through 2023, but unfortunately for the Cardinals, it’s not looking like a great move so far. Facing the lowly Marlins on Wednesday, Mikolas allowed five earned runs on eight hits in five innings, thereby raising his ERA to 4.83 in 78 1/3 frames this season. His 4.74 FIP isn’t much better.

Mikolas’ 2019 woes haven’t come because of significant declines in the strikeout, walk, groundball or BABIP categories. Those numbers look almost the same compared to last season, though there has been a noticeable drop in his strike rate. Nobody posted a higher strike percentage than Mikolas’ 69.3 a year ago, but the figure has fallen to 65.8 in 2019. Meanwhile, Mikolas’ strand rate has decreased by a large margin (from 76.2 percent to 70.9), and he has been far more prone to surrendering long balls.

After yielding home runs on a meager 9.2 percent of fly balls in 2018, Mikolas is all the way up to 19.7 this season. It hasn’t helped that Mikolas’ infield fly rate has plummeted from 9.8 percent to 4.2. At the same time, his hard-hit rate has climbed by greater than 5 percent, according to FanGraphs, while Statcast indicates his average exit velocity against has hopped from 85.4 mph to 88.2. Consequently, Mikolas’ weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against has shot from .271/.286 to .339/.347.

So why the newfound contact management issues? For one, Mikolas isn’t fooling as many hitters this year, as they’ve chased 5 percent fewer pitches than they did last season. And left-handed hitters have been especially tough on Mikolas, who held them to a .309 wOBA last season but has seen the number jump to .396 this year. As seen in these FanGraphs heatmaps (2018, ’19), he’s not staying away against lefties as well he did last season.

Worsening matters, Mikolas’ once-elite slider has been ineffective, and he has leaned on it less as a result. While Mikolas’ slider was one of the most valuable pitches of its kind a year ago, per FanGraphs, it has taken colossal steps backward this season. Batters posted a measly .201/.231 wOBA/xwOBA versus the offering in his first year in St. Louis, but they’re up to .395/.329 in the current campaign. If we’re to take that 66-point gap in face value, there has been some poor fortune involved. However, it simply hasn’t been close to as lethal as it was in 2018, perhaps owing to a 1 mph drop in velocity and somewhat of a change in typical location (heatmaps via FanGraphs: ’18, ’19).

Contrary to last season, when Mikolas’ slider helped him perform like one of the majors’ top starters, troubling signs abound for the 2019 version of the righty. His struggles are a key reason why the Cardinals have gotten off to a mediocre start and are on track to miss the playoffs for a fourth straight season. That’s not what the Redbirds had in mind when they bought high on Mikolas over the winter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Who Will Win The NL Central?

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The National League Central looked like a three-team race at the beginning of the season, and not much has changed two months into the campaign. The Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals – the most hyped clubs in the division coming into the year – are at the top. After winning the division a year ago, the Brewers are 39-29, a half-game better than the Cubs. The Cardinals are a less impressive 33-33, five games back, though they’re certainly not out of the race. Meanwhile, the Reds and Pirates are eight and nine games behind, respectively. Neither looked likely to challenge for the NL Central at the outset of the season. They haven’t done anything to change anyone’s mind yet.

Led by reigning MVP right fielder Christian Yelich, brilliant free-agent acquisition Yasmani Grandal and offseason re-signing Mike Moustakas, the Brewers boast one of the majors’ most valuable groups of position players.  Their pitching hasn’t been as useful, on the other hand, as a rotation that was devoid of an ace entering the season has dealt with ineffectiveness and injuries throughout the year. However, the team still features elite reliever Josh Hader, with Jeremy Jeffress and Adrian Houser among those supporting him.

The Cubs’ position player mix has been even better than the Brewers’ this year, largely because Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras and David Bote have each offered strong production. Chicago’s rotation is probably better equipped, too, as Kyle Hendricks, Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana and Jon Lester are all proven commodities. Although, Yu Darvish hasn’t rebounded as hoped in his second year as a Cub. Darvish & Co. have handed off to a bullpen that hasn’t been lights-out this year, but it’s about to welcome all-time great closer Craig Kimbrel, whom the Cubs signed to a three-year, $43MM contract last week. Kimbrel would have been a match for the Brewers, making it all the more beneficial for the Cubs that they landed him (on paper, at least).

As for the Cardinals, they’ve fallen short of expectations after trading for ex-Diamondback Paul Goldschmidt, one of the premier position players in recent memory, and signing reliever Andrew Miller in the offseason. Both players have logged somewhat disappointing production to date, though Goldschmidt’s still an imposing presence and Miller has improved after a rocky start. Regardless, neither the Cardinals’ cast of hitters nor their relief corps is their most pressing issue. It’s their rotation, which hasn’t gotten high-end numbers from anyone. Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas have gone backward after impressive showings in 2018, while Dakota Hudson’s peripherals portend trouble. Adam Wainwright’s much closer to average than ace-like these days (and he’s now on the injured list with a hamstring issue), and nobody has nailed down the fifth spot in the Redbirds’ starting staff.

Considering the talent peppered throughout the Cardinals’ roster, it would be foolhardy to rule them out as potential division winners this season. Furthermore, with the trade deadline still yet to occur, St. Louis or anyone else in the division could put itself over the top with a shrewd acquisition(s) leading up to July 31. For now, though, the edge clearly belongs to the Cubs and the Brewers. FanGraphs currently projects the NL Central to finish in this order: Cubs (91-71), Brewers (87-75), Cardinals (83-79), Reds (78-84), Pirates (75-87). How do you expect it to shake out?

(Poll link for app users)

Cardinals Sign 2nd-Rounder Trejyn Fletcher

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  • The Cardinals have inked second-rounder Trejyn Fletcher to an above-slot deal, Callis reports. Fletcher’s pick (No. 58) had a $1.22MM slot value, but the Redbirds gave the high school outfielder $1.5MM. Callis and Mayo ranked Fletcher as the 87th-best player available entering the draft, owing to the 18-year-old’s “tantalizing combination of plus raw power, speed and arm strength.” If all goes well, Fletcher could evolve into a 20-20 center fielder in the majors, Callis and Mayo write, though they note his development will require a large amount of patience.

Latest On Brett Cecil

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Cardinals reliever Brett Cecil says he’s pleased thus far with the results of his carpal tunnel surgery, as Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. The southpaw is preparing to throw from a mound for the first time since his procedure in early April.

Cecil ended up going under the knife when he experienced a loss of sensation in his fingers this spring. That was only the latest in a line of woes for the veteran hurler, whose tenure in St. Louis has not gone as hoped when the team gave him a rare four-year deal in advance of the 2017 campaign. He’s earning $7.5MM this year and $7MM next, with full no-trade rights.

Last season, Cecil experienced shoulder and foot problems — along with notable declines in velocity, swinging-strike rate, and chase rate (among other things). Simply put, he wasn’t fooling opposing hitters. Cecil walked more of them than he struck out en route to 32 2/3 innings of 6.89 ERA pitching.

It’s anyone’s guess whether Cecil will ever be anything close to the stud setup man the Cards thought they were getting. But they’ll soon get a sense of his post-surgical form. If all goes well, Cecil could launch a rehab assignment not long after his 33rd birthday in early July and perhaps even make it back to the MLB mound by the end of the month.

Cardinals Sign First-Rounder Zack Thompson

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The Cardinals announced Tuesday that they’ve signed first-rounder Zack Thompson. The Athletic’s Mark Saxon reported minutes prior to the announcement that Thompson had agreed to terms and would receive a $3MM signing bonus, which checks in $359K south of his No. 19 overall slot value (Twitter link).

A left-handed pitcher out of the University of Kentucky, Thompson made 14 starts in 2019 and logged a 2.40 ERA with a 130-to-34 K/BB ratio over 90 innings as a junior. Scouting reports from Baseball America (No. 11), MLB.com (No. 14), Fangraphs (No. 18) and ESPN (No. 22) all agreed on two things: Thompson is a consensus first-round talent, and he might’ve gone higher in the draft had an elbow issue not held him out for much of his sophomore season in 2018.

Reports on Thompson praise him for a low-90s heater that can touch 96 mph and a slider, changeup and curveball that all have the potential to be anywhere from average to above-average offerings in pro ball. The 6’3″, 225-pound Thompson didn’t miss a start in 2019 and averaged a bit better than 6 1/3 innings per outing, which helped to quell some concerns about his previous elbow troubles.

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